US elections
There were three elections today in the US, that people deemed of national significance. Elections for the Governors of New Jersey and Virginia and a fascinating congressional stoush.
In New Jersey, the Republican Chris Christie won 49% to 44%, beating the incumbent Governor. Now New Jersey is normally a strong blue state. No republican president candidate has won it since 1988, no republican has won state office since 1997, and no republican has won a Senate seat since 1972.
The last set of polls had it close – on average Christie led by just 0.5%, so a win of 13% is huge.
In Virginia, the margin was 59% to 41% for republican Bob McDonnell. He was not facing an incumbent as they have term limits. The last two Governors have been Democrats.
The congressional contest is in New York’s 23rd district. It has been held for many years by the Republicans with the margin in 2008 being 65% to 35%. The incumbent resigned to become Secretary of the Army.
The official GOP candidate was seen as too liberal, and Doug Hoffman campaigning on the conservative party ticket actually started to beat her in the polls after he received high profile endorsements from Sarah Palin etc. The GOP candidate then pulled out (but her name is on the ballot) and endorsed the Democratic candidate.
Currently it looks like the Democrats will pick up the seat with 49%, Hoffman is on 45% and the GOP candidate on 5%.
If Hoffman had won, it would be a major victory for the right of the party. Instead they have lost a safe seat, but I suspect the fact they even managed to turn it into a two way race will embolden them.
So overall not good for the Democrats, but their best hope may be infighting within the Republicans over their future direction.
November 4th, 2009 at 6:35 pm
” (but her name is on the ballot)”
So does that mean that in theory the Yanks could elect a dead person?
If so, that might explain Joe Biden.
November 4th, 2009 at 6:43 pm
“So overall not good for the Democrats, but their best hope may be infighting within the Republicans over their future direction.”
Naah, don’t think so. It is the lack of “infighting” that has made the Republican’s a carbon copy of the Democrats. To the extent that the RNC picks a candidate who when unseated in preference for Hoffman, endorses a Democrat. What damn use then is the party and its hierarchy?
Like the Nationals in NZ, the Republicans in the US have completely lost their way, and restoring the party to the Constitutional and traditional values it is meant to stand for is top priority. If this is not achieved what the hell is the use of having a Republican Party? Might as well just combine both parties and call America a one party state. Like NZ is. (virtually)
The “infighting” has to happen and can only have a beneficial effect in the long term.
November 4th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Hoffman’s conceded. Doesn’t mean Owens can rest easy though: he has to fight for the seat again same time next year and the total right vote at the moment is higher than Owens’ by 2000 votes. He did very well for someone who appeared a few weeks before the election and caused the GOP candidate to have a paddy and drop out.
Watch the media focus on NY-23 and the “civil war” in the RP, rather than the potential of Blue Dogs freezing up on Obama’s initiatives over the next year.
November 4th, 2009 at 6:46 pm
From friends, it sounds to me like the Republicans are having a bit of an internal battle between big govt conservatives (Bush and Bush), and small govt conservatives (Reagan). And that the party is currently thinking big govt conservative, and putting up centrist candidates who agree with the Dems that the govt needs to control everything, but have some differences on exactly what the govt should do whilst controlling everything. And that the grass roots want candidates who are just rolling back govt in general.
My sources are telling me there is a huge groundswell against the left now that they’re seeing what Obama actually wants to do. I know that my sources are pretty partisan, but I can see signs that the Republicans might return to their roots – less federal powers, less govt intervention, less tax, less spending. And, hopefully, less telling people what they should do with their personal lives.
November 4th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
The New York Mayoral election was a huge shock – 51% to 46%; had the Democrat the slightest inkling he could win (and therefore actually bothered campaigning during the last two weeks), Bloomberg probably would have been outski.
Good result in Virginia McDonnell is a good man; shame about the Libertarian independent in New Jersey Chris Daggert receiving only 6% as he was the only candidate with any policies.
http://www.nightcitytrader.blogspot.com
November 4th, 2009 at 6:56 pm
Paul Buchanan has a good analysis in today’s GD.
November 4th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
“Paul Buchanan has a good analysis”
You think so? I reckon its left wing crap. 50% unsubstantiated opinion based ever so firmly on Democrat/ mainstream media talking points, and the rest of it pretty commonly accepted supposition. Take this claim for example, complete withthe pejorative term “meddlers”-
“the District 23 outcome, if the results hold, indicate that upstate New Yorkers do not like external meddling in their affairs or simply are not as conservative as the meddlers.”
He wouldn’t have a damn clue what it indicated. As a confirmed lefty, he’s just projecting.
November 4th, 2009 at 7:16 pm
NY-23 has a history of being moderate so it’s not surprising Hoffman didn’t pull it off. ‘The Democrat” Owens was at a disadvantage as the moderate Repub campaigned in the middle until she pulled out in the weekend, leaving Owens to the left . He didn’t have much time to retarget for the middle.
PB is correct, there will have been a backlash against outside meddling. RB tries to associate all results to his wishful thinking. The Repubs lost a seat that has been their’s, this result is as bad for them as New Jersey was for the Dems.
Virginia was no sup[rise, except perhaps for the margin. but McDonnell was widely viewed as the better candidate anyway.
Everyone will find something in all of this that backs their pet theories.
November 4th, 2009 at 7:35 pm
Ron Paul 2011!
November 4th, 2009 at 7:40 pm
Obama “the Messiah” could be the main casualty of the recent gubernatorial elections.
At this pace, he could get the dubious honour of becoming a one-term president, a reincarnation of Jimmy Carter, the feeble-minded peanut farmer from Georgia.
These results will send a shiver up the spine of incumbent Democratic senators and representatives seeking reelection in November 2010 (mid term elections).
November 4th, 2009 at 7:52 pm
Manolo, you could have said the same about Reagan.
These were the results of 1982, 2 years after Reagans big win, when they had a massive losses
” As in most midterm elections, the President’s Republican Party lost a net of 27 seats to the Democratic Party, including most of the seats that had been gained the previous election, cementing the Democratic majority. Wikipedia”
November 4th, 2009 at 7:54 pm
Re NY-23
Jay Cost at Real Clear Politics is a great big picture analyst. His post on NY 23 is a must read http://www.realclearpolitics.com/horseraceblog/2009/11/five_reasons_ny23_doesnt_tell.html
In summary, people should be careful to read much into that result either way (Dems or conservative Republicans) because:
1 – There was no primary. Scozzefava’s liberalism would’ve likely been unable to persuade the broad base of the GOP versus the handful of party insiders who selected her. Likewise, if Hoffman was seen to be too conservative then he too would’ve failed to woo the party faithful in a primary. Had Scozzefava been able to win the primary, she would’ve had broader legitimacy that conservatives would’ve found harder to oppose.
2 – Scozzefava was a terrible candidate – she threw a hissy after a debate when a reporter asked too many curly questions and actually called the police (who said later she was wasting their time). She held a presser in front of her opponent’s campaign HQ leading to horrible optics when photos of the conference were published.
3 – NY State, unlike almost every other state, has a history of viable third party candidates and its electoral rules and procedures make it easier for the Conservative Party to stand. Few other states would’ve enable Hoffman to prosper as well as he did in NY.
4 – Low turnout – these skewer results
5 – A week is a long time in politics
My personal take – add Hoffman and Scozzefavva’s votes together and you get a narrow centre-right victory.
Christie’s easy victory in NJ is THE story in the 09 season – Obama campaigned frequently and aggressively for Corzine and indeed the White House had been pretty much running his campaign. Corzine outspent Christie 6 to 1 and the voter identification is still almost 10% in favour of the Dems. The WH had thrown Deeds in VA under the bus weeks ago and had tried to distance themselves from the VA debacle but whilst Obama only made one visit to northern VA, other prominent Dems campaigned there and the DNC and Dem Governors all were a big presence.
The Dems are furiously spinning this as nothing to see here re Pres Obama – move along (I note Paul Buchanan has posted a polite version of that spin at the GD) but bear in mind that McDonnell’s victory margin over Deeds is almost identical to the George Allen’s (GOP) margin of victory in the 1993 race as was the down ticket sweep. Likewise in more heavily Democrat NJ – Christie’s margin of victory was very similar to Christine Todd Whitman’s margin of victory in 1993. The GOP also had pick ups in the VA House of Delegates and the NJ General Assembly (both lower Houses). These results closely parallel the GOP gains in 1993 that foreshadowed the Republican take back of the House and Senate.
When it comes to Obama’s signature domestic policy agenda items, health care reform and cap and trade, every moderate ‘Blue Dog’ Democrat in the House (and those in the Senate up for re-election) will now be eying his/her vote on these leftist agenda items with a view to whether it will hurt their re-election chances. Tonights results demonstrate that the likelihood of votes for these bills hurting their chances has markedly increased.
November 4th, 2009 at 7:55 pm
Maine voters have rejected the law allowing queers to get married. A result which was considered a surprise in a very progressive state.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/11/03/gay-marriage-vote-close-maine/
November 4th, 2009 at 7:57 pm
Another one, after the state house, senate & governor of Maine passed a law legalizing gay marriage it was defeated in a referendum by about 53-47%. Funnily enough the same voters also legalized medical marijuana by a 60-40% margin.
November 4th, 2009 at 7:58 pm
Thanks Hurf, for the link.
RB: you clearly know Jack Squat about the US other than what you see and read on conservative outlets. Contrary to your delusions, I do not project anything onto my assessments. Had you read my comment in the general debate thread you would have seen that I see this result as a mixed blessing for both sides.
You really need to stop plagarising the Joe McCarthy playbook and realise that Elvis is dead, Stalin is dead, Kruschev is dead, Breshnev is dead, Andropov is dead, Reagan is dead and, given the way you would have things transpire in the US, the GOP will be dead soon. Pull your head out of the past and think about how to revitalise conservativism, not revive its (now irrelevant) Cold War ghosts. Then again, that would force you to stop and think before ranting, so hold that thought…..
Manolo: I agree with your last statement, but from a different angle. As I said in the general debate thread, the 2010 midterms are the big prize because the number of national-level seats involved, so today’s electoral exercise actually gives a ray of hope to both sides. What that means in practice is likely a rush to the political centre rather than the extremes by both parties and a marginalisation of their respective zealots in the build-up to November 2010.
I look forward to hearing KIA’s (most likely contrary) assessment on today’s events.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:00 pm
kiwi in america, i would remind you that deeds campaigned as a ‘blue dog’ democrat and proposed that he would opt-out of healthcare reform and not raise taxes, therefore heavily decreasing democratic turnout, even losing in certain northern virginia areas and losing among women and young people, who couldn’t be bothered to go and vote for somebody who didn’t articulate any policy opposition to the republican candidate.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:13 pm
Piggy – Deeds campaigned to raise taxes to build more highways – it became a feature in all the debates he had with McDonnell. McDonnell said the transport needs of Virginia can be sorted with no tax increases. This issue (once all the fuss over McDonnell’s 20 year old college thesis died down) became a defining issue between the candidates.
Any Governor worth his/her salt in the US (apart from the socialised medicine true believers) rejects Obamacare because it rams a raft of new costs down the throats of the States.
If you think unequivocally failing to embrace Obama is why Deeds lost then how do you explain Corzine’s unexpectedly large loss when he positively tied himself to Obama’s hip doing the campaign?
November 4th, 2009 at 8:16 pm
Angus: Considering Obama doesn’t support same-sex marraige, you could say that that was a win for him.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:18 pm
Democrats must be fucking elated with the current state of the republican party.
Palin and her vociferous horde of flag fellating psychopaths are alienating large portions of the populace. Didn’t they learn from Goldwater? As someone sympathetic to the republican cause I would very much like to repetitively thwack those idiots on the nose with a rolled up newspaper like a naughty puppy.
Hopefully in 2012 after the inevitable catastrophe, someone will have the sense to rub their noses into the urine soaked carpet and they might select someone with a small degree of intelligence.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:22 pm
Show me a single governor whose approval ratings haven’t taken a dive since the start of the financial crisis. That and teh fact that he’s a wall street hack, and there was obviously some sort of ’shy tory’ effect with the independant candidate or it would’ve gone down to the wire.
Then again, as I’m talking to somebody who is giving the whole ‘Obamacare’ spiel I therefore can make the assumption that you’re totally insane and I don’t care much for your opinion. Cheers though.
November 4th, 2009 at 8:58 pm
“NY-23: Democrat Bill Owens prevails in a result over Conservative Doug Hoffman that will be regarded as surprising. NY-23 is solidly Republican but not especially conservative (it voted for Barack Obama last year), and Hoffman was a relatively uncharismatic candidate with poor command of the local issues.
NY-23 was a win for the Median voter theorem, as Owens — a conservative Democrat — was actually much closer to the average ideology of the district than the conservative Republican Hoffman. More than 95 percent of Hoffman’s contributions came from out-of-district, and the conservative activists who tried to brand him as a modern-day Jefferson Smith never bothered to check whether he resonated particularly well with the zeitgeist of the district. ”
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/
November 4th, 2009 at 9:04 pm
“You really need to”
No I don’t. The last thing I need is to be told by a commie how to think, how to choose candidates, and who to vote for. You just look after the left, and for the rest of the time, keep your damn patronising advice to yourself.
I’ll tell you one thing that is a damn sight more dead than any of those you name, and that is the concept that left wingers can give the right political advice.
November 4th, 2009 at 9:20 pm
“So does that mean that in theory the Yanks could elect a dead person?”
Former AG John Ashcroft lost to a dead person in his 2000 senate race before becoming AG in the Bush2 administration.
November 4th, 2009 at 9:58 pm
More spin from Delirium. Love it.
November 4th, 2009 at 10:03 pm
That’s from Nate Silver Hurf.
November 4th, 2009 at 10:33 pm
And the Huruld still has nothing on it, though there is a delightful little story that’s appeared since the afternoon about Obama’s irrelevant and insignificant half-brother’s semi-autobiographical novel. Only the important developments for the Huruld.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:31 pm
Red,
Paul’s advice wasn’t to “the right”, it was to you personally. You are so far away from what attracts people to the right wing that it isn’t even funny. What is funny is your refusal to abandon a paranoid world view that was out dated in the 50’s. I’ve noticed people around here, myself included have stopped trying to have reasonable debate with you, and the only attention you seem to get these days is people to object to the manner in which you present your ideas. Of course to preempt the inevitable and tired “don’t tell me how to act! COMMIE, STALIN, KENYA, DINGOS ATE MY BABY” response you are so fond of, please feel free to continue posting in what ever manner you choose to do so, and thanks for the entertainment
On a more serious note, I’m weary of attempts to spin these elections as proper indicators of the 2010 or 2012 races. There are troubling signs in these results for both parties, but nothing we didn’t already know. Think about it, what did we really learn from today?
That a bad economy would hurt incumbents? Thats one of the basic fact of politics. That bitter and public in fighting can boost your rivals? Another long accepted truth.
If your looking for data that really helps predict whats going to happen next year, Gallup has a good article up at the moment about the political climate being the worst for the Dems since at least 06. Things like Party ID and voters view of the current direction of the nation are far more helpful when seeking to understand the trends of the electorate than a few local elections.
November 4th, 2009 at 11:43 pm
Both major parties in the US are like a two sided coin spinning in the air and randomly landing whichever way up to choose who will govern except that it seems to always land on its edge, one way or the other.
The very minor differences between the two sides, in my opinion, just does not justify the obscene quantities of intellectual and emotional energy, ad hominem invective and dollars invested in this ongoing, albeit non-militarised, civil war.
Bush/Obama same/same The latter is just more articulate and better presented, almost like a movie star! In fact, I remember a survey quite a long time ago now which asked Americans who was their greatest hero, the embodiment of US values – the answer by a long margin was John Wayne who did all his fighting on Hollywood lots.
One could actually say Obama is even more duplicitous than Dubya, but it’s ever so smoothly done
One could also say it is typical of most of not all western democracies, but it just seems the US does it all so much more intensely.
November 5th, 2009 at 1:07 am
“the only attention you seem to get these days is people to object to the manner in which you present your ideas.”
Maybe, if you really wanted people to believe that what Redbaiter writes here is unimportant to you, you should cease writing 170 word paragraphs about him.
November 5th, 2009 at 4:28 am
paul, thanks for trying
to engage with russ, most of
us just laugh at him
November 5th, 2009 at 11:04 am
RichUncleSkeleton hell my yank cousin is starting a progressives for Palin movement in Boston for when she runs in 2012 with Cheney.
Heh, the amusing part is that she could stand as a conservative candidate and do better than the GOP nominee while going down 400 to sod all against Obama.
Not too bright a bulb that bloke Hoffman in suggesting that subsidies should be dropped in a dairy farming area of NY.
Or was he not cross burning enough, maybe the bible needed to be bashed a bit more.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:21 am
Dear Gov. Palin:
I would like to offer you my most heartfelt gratitude for the tremendous boost you gave my candidacy. Going out on a limb and endorsing a Conservative Party candidate over one from your own party showed tremendous courage on your part. My staff of hard-working volunteers had been very concerned about this election; but when you announced your endorsement last week, it really lifted our spirits and gave us new life. Now we have largely you to thank for the outcome. I hope we can once again count on your support for the conservative agenda in the next congressional election.
Sincerely,
Representative-Elect Owens
November 5th, 2009 at 6:28 pm
Looking at the Huruld…oh look, still nothing. It’s as though nothing ever happened. Nothing to see here, move on, says the Huruld.
November 5th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
Sillydumbtwat: if Scuzzlebutt had the politeness to drop out earlier and had her name off the ballot, Hoffman would have won. And a range of different Repubs endorsed him before Palin did. If anyone’s responsible for it, it’s Ofuckface for arranging Scuzzlebutt to back Owens.
I’m looking forward to your scumbag Marxist cousin weeping like a baby in 2012. Oh, and I’m looking forward to your leftist friends being liquidated here.
November 5th, 2009 at 11:16 pm
“Age of Autism – Daily Web Newspaper of the Autism Epidemic” has a post suggesting Vaccination Choice was a factor in the New Jersey election.
http://www.ageofautism.com/
November 5th, 2009 at 11:24 pm
This is what I should have typed
http://www.ageofautism.com/2009/11/citizens-demanding-vaccination-choice-chris-chrisie-to-nj-governorship.html
November 5th, 2009 at 11:46 pm
Oops that links bust and i can’t work out why – if interested go to http://www.ageofautism.com/ and scoll down ’till you find it among November 4 postings