Let Scotland go

January 12th, 2012 at 3:18 pm by David Farrar

The talk in the UK is of when the vote on Scottish independence should be. Amusingly the UK Conservative Government wants it early and a straight up and down vote, while the Scottish SNP Government wants it in 2014 and a third option of great devolution. I suspect this is because they are realising what full independence may cost.

Losing would be great for the Conservative Party. The House of Commons is currently:

  • Conservative 305
  • Labour 255
  • Lib Dems 57
  • Others 33
  • Total 650

You need 326 to govern.

59 seats are in Scotland. Remove them and you need 296 to govern. And the House of Commons would be:

  • Conservative 304
  • Labour 214
  • Lib Dems 46
  • Others 27
  • Total 591

So the Conservatives would then have an absolute majority in England, Northern Ireland and Wales.

Scotland as an independent country would presumably not be able to keep the pound, and would adopt the Euro instead. Can’t see that being too popular.

That is why I suspect the SNP don’t want full independence anymore – it would cost too much. They want all the powers of independence, but none of the responsibility.

Cameron should stay firm and insist on a straight up and down vote.

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29 Responses to “Let Scotland go”

  1. MikeG (425 comments) says:

    So you’re saying that Cameron should let them have independence, but only on his terms? Democracy in action!!

    Would Scotland have to apply for membership of the EU if it did gain independence, and why would it have to adopt the Euro?

    [DPF: It would not have to adopt the Euro. They could create their own currency. I suspect Scotland would have to apply, but it would be basically automatically approved.

    And it is not about independence on Cameron’s terms – it is about independence being just that – not some sort of parasitical option where they still have the UK paying things on their behalf.

    What could be worth exploring is the idea of the UK becoming a Federation though]

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  2. iMP (2,455 comments) says:

    Plus all the North Sea oil and gas Scotland wants to claim was developed with UK money, so presumably the Scots would have to pay the UK several gazillion for the assets (something South Islanders miss when they talk about cutting the Cook Strait cable). They’d also have to compete with UK for markets and have further to sail to European ports.

    Would Scotland win ANY intrenational sporting fixtures without UK bolt-ons? Caber tossing?

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  3. BlairM (2,340 comments) says:

    The English should have a vote to secede from the UK. I suspect it would win!

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  4. F E Smith (3,307 comments) says:

    There are two things that the Tories need to do to ensure at least a fair chance at getting elected: ensure that each seat is of roughly the same population number, and let Scotland become independent.

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  5. anonymouse (705 comments) says:

    Scotland as an independent country would presumably not be able to keep the pound,

    No, but the Irish punt traded at 1:1 with the UK pound for ages before Ireland let it float in ’79 and then eventually adopted the Euro, I can’t see why a Scottish Pound could not also be fixed at 1:1 with the UK one…

    In fact Scottish notes are already distinct from English/Welsh notes and are not strictly legal tender south of the border (most are accepted, but the 1 pound note isn’t very kosher in Blighty…

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  6. tvb (4,553 comments) says:

    I assume Scotland will take its share of the public debt (fat chance) and some division of the oil revenues – I assume Scotland wants the lot. Defence/Foreign Affairs???

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  7. Jimbob (641 comments) says:

    I didn’t realise that Scottish were that dumb. The majority of the country are pinkos, that puts a different light on them.

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  8. Weihana (4,620 comments) says:

    Freeeeeeeddddoooooommmmmm!!!! :)

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  9. Dave A (61 comments) says:

    Scotland as an independent country would presumably not be able to keep the pound, and would adopt the Euro instead

    Have you ever been to Scotland? They already have their own currency, issued by various Scottish banks.

    [DPF: It isn’t really their own currency. It’s is just a different version of the sterling]

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  10. JamesS (352 comments) says:

    It is a wonder David Cameron wants to keep Scotland and 5 million stupid, ignorant lazy jocks within the UK.

    Scotland pays 72 pence in taxes for every 1 pound it receives from Westminster (thanks to Newlabour pork barrel politics), 26% of Jocks between 18 and 65 are out of work (no, due to laziness), 1 in 6 jocks over 40 has never worked a day in their lives, life expectancy in Glasgow is about 58, most jocks have a PhD in whingeing, and the average jock has an IQ of about 2 and a half.

    If Alex Salmond wants to deal with all that he should be strongly encouraged!

    It will all end up like Eire; for centuries the Irish loved to blame everybody else – English landlords, Boston Brahmins, potato famines etc – for their problems and 5 minutes or so after going it alone they go spectacularly bust (to the tune of 100 billion euros) and now have no one to blame except themselves.
    The English and Boston brahmins were right – Irish people are a bunch of useless pissheads unable to survive on their own.

    Within a couple of years of Scottish independence it will be a similar story.

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  11. Akaroa (612 comments) says:

    My respect and admiration of Cameron increases by the day! He’s calling their bluff is all.

    I doubt your actual man-in-Sauchiehall-Street is seriously interested in Scotland becoming truly (And THAT’S a word with a multitude of meanings) independent. Its just a Scottish-Nationalist wet-dream.

    On the other had If the Scots Nats should actually prevail and are foolish enough to take their half-acre out of the enfolding United Kingdom – then there’ll be a cauld wind a-blowing through the banks and braes of bonnie Doon the nicht, ye ken!!

    Fascinating stuff. Watch that space, eh?

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  12. CraigMcD1 (2 comments) says:

    Scotland can easily do it on their own. It’s a myth that they are subsidized by England, they more than pay their way already in the Union. The sooner they unshackle themselves the better. Check the facts, http://www.newstatesman.com/blogs/the-staggers/2011/11/scotland-12288-union-public

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  13. Daigotsu (471 comments) says:

    “What could be worth exploring is the idea of the UK becoming a Federation though”

    Have you read the SNP manifesto, DPF? That is basically exactly what they are proposing. They are quite happy to maintain a joint military and currency, keep the royal family as heads of state of Scotland, and some other more low-key but possibly significant ties. And of course Scotland would remain within the EU, and just as significantly, NATO.

    So you are basically criticising the SNP for a position they don’t hold.

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  14. peterwn (3,332 comments) says:

    anonymouse – Scottish banks must hold Bank of England banknotes representing the banknotes they issue. The Bank of England banknotes would be special multi-million pound banknotes signed by hand by the Chief Cashier which are also used for internal control purposes in the Bank of England itself. Hence even if a Scottish bank tanked in the last few years, the Bank of England would have been able to ‘honour’ that bank’s banknotes at no cost to the taxpayer. So Social Creditors can eat their hearts out – Scottish banknotes are not a successful implementation of Major Douglas’s Social Credit policies.

    As for assets on independence, ‘ownership’ would most probably lie where they fell since Scottish taxpayers would have nominally paid for assets in Scotland (agreed that there could be quibbles about actual ratios). Privately owned assets like North Sea oil installations would not be affected by any change of sovereignty. The marine ‘economic zone’ would need to be split – would probably require UN mediation.

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  15. DJP6-25 (1,389 comments) says:

    There was an article on this subject in the Spectator a few months ago. Prime Minister Cameron would be very wise to let Scotland go ASAP. That way he stands a far better chance of winning the next election. There are only two or three Tory MPs in the country. Fulll independence for Scotland yesterday!

    cheers

    David Prosser

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  16. Dick Gozinya (19 comments) says:

    Forget about the oil revenues, the big export commodity for the Scots would be deep fried Mars Bars…

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  17. Disraeli Gladstone (5 comments) says:

    It’s all well and good saying that Cameron should let Scotland go. But it also ignores the fact that the Conservatives believe in the Union. Along with the Lib Dems and Labour. I know most people think politicians will do anything to win an election, but a belief in the UK itself isn’t something thrown aside to ensure a majority. Also, I doubt Cameron wants to be known as the Prime Minister who oversaw the demise of the United Kingdom.

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  18. wat dabney (3,840 comments) says:

    Cameron should stay firm and insist on a straight up and down vote

    This is the same Cameron that, despite an earlier promise, won’t allow the British people a vote on the EU because, as he well knows, they would reject it.

    Another lying, hypocrital little shit.

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  19. Pauleastbay (5,035 comments) says:

    Tell the jocks to get in line, there’s that wee matter of the northern occupation to the west that needs sorting out first.

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  20. Luc Hansen (4,573 comments) says:

    DPF:

    Cameron should stay firm and insist on a straight up and down vote.

    Ah yes, life is so simple in the RWNJ world. Either for me or agin me. Nuances not required. Who was it who said a simple answer to a complex question is invariably (or maybe, certainly) wrong.

    DPF:

    What could be worth exploring is the idea of the UK becoming a Federation though]

    Do you think Tuhoe would be interested in this as a model for their devolution? I’m sue they would welcome your support.

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  21. magsta (483 comments) says:

    So long as but 100 of us lives
    we will not yield to the domination of the English

    RIP, William Wallace

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  22. Michael (913 comments) says:

    There is nothing to stop Scotland pegging their currency to the British Pound – like the Chinese have to the US Dollar. Although it would put a stop to all the Scottish banknotes being accepted south of the border.

    And if the Scots got a referendum then Nth Ireland and Wales should get one too. And probably Cornwall will want one as well.

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  23. Other_Andy (2,676 comments) says:

    “Do you think Tuhoe would be interested in this as a model for their devolution? I’m sure they would welcome your support.”

    Good idea. Scotland and Tuhoe, the similarities make the two barely distinguishable.
    I hear ‘Bishop’ Tamaki is also putting in a request right now.
    In fact, I like the idea so much I am thinking of setting up a Federation myself.
    Why hasn’t anybody else thought of this before?
    Oh wait……

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  24. joana (1,983 comments) says:

    Why are so many poms moving to Scotland? Why are so many poms moving to Christchurch? I guess it is because their own country is an overcrowded dump.

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  25. Jinky (190 comments) says:

    The main reason the tories do so badly in Scotland is Maggie Thatcher. Nobody North of the Border can forget/forgive her for the way the major industries there were wiped out. An Independent Scotland will do fine, we’ve done it before and can do so again. The rest of the world recognises the contribution Scots have made see “How the Scots invented the Modern World” Arthur Numan

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  26. unaha-closp (1,067 comments) says:

    The UK is broke. The UK bankng sector is treading on the cusp of having a bust that makes Iceland (2008) look trivial. And with the banks so goes the the rest of the UK, because they make nothing* anybodyelse wants.

    * except oil & gas from Scotland.

    The Scots had better be getting out now.

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  27. tempest (30 comments) says:

    If Scotland leaves the UK would it have to take its share of the UK national debt? Would you pro rata allocate on a population basis? Or a geographical land area basis?

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  28. Jeff83 (747 comments) says:

    DPF it has absolutely nothing to do with it. The reason they want a third option is the majority of Scotland are against full independence, hence why the SNP want a third option, also the delay is because they believe time (with the economic climate over here) will work in the SNPs favour.

    The reason Britain doesn’t want to let go, ignoring tradition, is economically it makes no sense to split the country and also the oil fields.

    Actual independence would be a nightmare to work out the specifics. Techinically Scotland joined the UK due to it going bankrupt, so it has a theoritical debt, but it does have the lions share of the north sea oil fields

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  29. Clint Heine (1,495 comments) says:

    Article in the Telegraph today was hinting the if the English wanted to play hardball, they’d ask Scotland to pay back the entire Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS debt, over 70 billion quid… which would wipe out their economy.

    “an independent Scotland could take the dramatic step of selling its future revenues from oil, which he estimates would generate enough money to pay off the country’s entire share of UK national debt and leave it with about £80bn to set up its own sovereign wealth fund.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/9008246/An-independent-Scotland-would-struggle-for-AAA-rating.html

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