The talk in the UK is of when the vote on Scottish independence should be. Amusingly the UK Conservative Government wants it early and a straight up and down vote, while the Scottish SNP Government wants it in 2014 and a third option of great devolution. I suspect this is because they are realising what full independence may cost.
Losing Scotland would be great for the Conservative Party. The House of Commons is currently:
- Conservative 305
- Labour 255
- Lib Dems 57
- Others 33
- Total 650
You need 326 to govern.
59 seats are in Scotland. Remove them and you need 296 to govern. And the House of Commons would be:
- Conservative 304
- Labour 214
- Lib Dems 46
- Others 27
- Total 591
So the Conservatives would then have an absolute majority in England, Northern Ireland and Wales.
Scotland as an independent country would presumably not be able to keep the pound, and would adopt the Euro instead. Can’t see that being too popular.
That is why I suspect the SNP don’t want full independence anymore – it would cost too much. They want all the powers of independence, but none of the responsibility.
Cameron should stay firm and insist on a straight up and down vote.