For those who missed it

March 18th, 2014 at 9:54 pm by David Farrar

Have just come off the Milford Track and looks like I missed a pretty significant Herald Digipoll:

Labour’s support has sunk nearly six points and it is polling only 29.5 per cent in the Herald-DigiPoll survey.

The popularity of leader David Cunliffe has fallen by almost the same amount, to 11.1 per cent. That is worse than the 12.4 per cent worst rating of former leader David Shearer.

Polling below Shearer who was rolled because he was polling so low.

The popularity of John Key as Prime Minister has climbed by 4.6 points to 66.5 per cent. That is his best rating since the election but not as high as he reached in his first term when he often rated more than 70 against Phil Goff.

The increases in support for National and the Greens since December put them at their highest ratings since the 2011 election.

Crashing below 30 per cent will be a bitter blow for Labour six months before the election. No party in the six elections held under MMP has been able to lead a government without polling in the high 30s or in the 40s.

Didn’t David Cunliffe claim Labour under his leadership would poll higher than National, not 22% behind them?

Labour’s only hopes seem to be Winston Peters and Kim Dotcom/Mana.

Of interest in the poll is that National is polling at just under 51% with both men and women. It is rare for a centre-right party to poll so strongly with women.

Tags:

39 Responses to “For those who missed it”

  1. Alan (1,055 comments) says:

    Its one poll, we need to see it replicated in other polls before reading too much into it. Could be an oulier.

    Does any one know if they publish the tables and breakdowns? Headline numbers are of limited utility.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 6 You need to be logged in to vote
  2. Johnboy (14,909 comments) says:

    “Of interest in the poll is that National is polling at just under 51% with both men and women. It is rare for a centre-right party to poll so strongly with women.”

    I said that before on the other thread….. Women don’t like chaps that resemble Turtles.

    They prefer chaps that resemble large Snakes! :)

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  3. Colville (2,062 comments) says:

    A perfect day DPF.
    Walk the best track in the world and come back to civilisation to put the boot into Cunners !
    Awesome fun :-)

    Vote: Thumb up 13 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  4. Rich Prick (1,538 comments) says:

    Cunliffe hates women, just look at the sleaze he has slung at Judith. It’s gone down terribly in Ponsonby, Herne Bay and round the Bays.

    Vote: Thumb up 15 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  5. Redbaiter (7,522 comments) says:

    “It is rare for a centre-right party to poll so strongly with women.”

    Yes, but the answer to this is that National is not center right, it is center left, which is where John Key has taken it because in his weak left wing populism and lack of idea/ rhetoric he can’t take it anywhere else.

    Hot debate. What do you think? Thumb up 10 Thumb down 18 You need to be logged in to vote
  6. davidp (3,540 comments) says:

    If this were the Oscars, John Key would like to thank the following people for the untiring ineptitude that has made this result possible: Director Greg Presland; Executive Producer Matt McCarten; Kim Dotcom who wrote the soundtrack; Russel Norman and the entire cast of the Greens; Winston Peters, who won his own Lifetime Achievement Award last year because he still shows up for work at the age of 82; Martin Bradbury who did the visual FX on his brand new iMac; the donors who provided the finance but wish to remain anonymous; the Official David Cunliffe Fan Club at the Standard; and some rich American guy who allowed the production to use his modest home as a set. Lastly, David Cunliffe himself for providing the inspiration, and also for voicing the Jar Jar Binks character while standing on top of a bus.

    Then Key would pose for a selfie with Bradley Cooper. And then he would fall over, because a lot of the reasons people like John Key are the same reasons they like Jennifer Lawrence.

    Popular. Like or Dislike: Thumb up 25 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  7. Sir Cullen's Sidekick (785 comments) says:

    As Cunliffe said, our internal polling puts us at 34% and the trend is showing further increases. Milkgate is yet to show its impact. Word on the street is milkgate will cost National at least 5%. So Matt McCarten expects that next poll will show National at 45% and Labour at close to 36%. We are on the right track.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 17 You need to be logged in to vote
  8. eszett (2,332 comments) says:

    Redbaiter (6,441 comments) says:
    March 18th, 2014 at 10:24 pm
    “It is rare for a centre-right party to poll so strongly with women.”

    Yes, but the answer to this is that National is not center right, it is center left, which is where John Key has taken it because in his weak left wing populism and lack of idea/ rhetoric he can’t take it anywhere else.

    Yup, Cunliffe and Co are praying that John Key follows your advice and turns hard right.
    That’s the only sure chance of National dropping like a stone and Labour winning the elction.

    Always knew that your are secretly a leftie in disguise.

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  9. Keeping Stock (10,092 comments) says:

    Kim Dotcom/Mana

    Quite so DPF. I understand that a lid is about to be lifted on something quite sordid involving the Large German Gentleman ;-)

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  10. Pete George (22,754 comments) says:

    Its one poll, we need to see it replicated in other polls before reading too much into it. Could be an oulier.

    Herald/Digipoll (March 6-16): Labour 29.5%
    Roy Morgan (Feb 17-Mar 2): Labour Party 30.5%
    One News/Colmar Brunton (Feb 15-19): Labour 34%
    Fairfax/IPSOS (Feb 8-10): Labour 31.8%

    - all those have a margin of error (at 95% confidence) of +/- 3-3.5%
    - the Colmar and IPSOS polling periods were before Cunliffe’s ‘horror week’.

    Combined results:

    Herald/Digipoll: Labour+Green 42.6%
    Roy Morgan: Labour+Green 41%
    One News/Colmar Brunton: Labour-Green 42%
    Fairfax/IPSOS: Labour+Green 41.8%

    There’s been some movement between Labour and Greens but the combined totals don’t look like the current poll is an outlier.

    Does any one know if they publish the tables and breakdowns? Headline numbers are of limited utility.

    Comprehensive poll results including regional and gender breakdowns at NZ Herald – National, Greens up, Labour at new low.

    Vote: Thumb up 11 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  11. tas (590 comments) says:

    Labour seems to think they have great policies and it’s just a matter of time before voters come to them in droves. Why do they not listen to the endless polls telling them that voters think they’re useless? If my party was polling record lows, I’d seriously reconsider direction, but not Labour. Why?

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  12. Harriet (4,497 comments) says:

    “…..It is rare for a centre-right party to poll so strongly with women….”

    That’s because most women don’t ‘identify’ with being ethnic, homo, marxist, a heroin addict, a rape target, a modern feminist, a prostitute – or being an academic.

    Labour abandoned kiwi women for nonsense.

    Labour has an image problem – and it ain’t cunliffe! :cool:

    Vote: Thumb up 18 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  13. Pete George (22,754 comments) says:

    Cunliffe does seem to have an image problem with women – Cunliffe preferred less in Auckland and by women

    Shane Jones probably doesn’t help but Labour under Cunliffe are shedding female support.

    Vote: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  14. itstricky (1,536 comments) says:

    For those who missed it

    I think I missed those posts about that MP that went to China and then did some swifty lying about the trip? Could you post those again?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 23 You need to be logged in to vote
  15. alex Masterley (1,490 comments) says:

    4 days on the track?
    crikey. it’s a 2 day wander at best…

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  16. burt (7,793 comments) says:

    Is there really still 29.5% of the population who want to repeat the 1970′s Muldoonesq policies ? Is it true 29.5% of people haven’t noticed that socialism always fails – if so, then it’s true that our school system is failing the youth of today.

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  17. Mobile Michael (410 comments) says:

    Labour will continue to poll less until Shane Jones is leader. He is the only Labour MP who understands the important issues for the infamous Waitakere Man who swing votes. While he’ll lose votes to the Greens, he’ll pick up double that number from National.

    Vote: Thumb up 7 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  18. WineOh (541 comments) says:

    Nats now need to avoid cruising and looking smug.

    Their number one priority has to be “don’t fuck up” – no major policy gaffs or scandals between now and election time and they may just be able to govern alone.

    Shane Jones is an interesting one though… will he become the new Winston Peters? Chaffs under authority, loose with the accusations. Will he leave to set up his own party?

    Vote: Thumb up 8 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  19. OneTrack (2,575 comments) says:

    ” Labour MP who understands the important issues for the infamous Waitakere Man ”

    Labour have said they don’t care less about Waitakere Man. And their policies prove it.

    Vote: Thumb up 6 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  20. OneTrack (2,575 comments) says:

    “Is there really still 29.5% of the population who want to repeat the 1970′s Muldoonesq policies ”

    Yes apparently there are. Dear old dad always voted Labour …….. Too bad dear old dad wouldn’t actually recognise Labour in 2014.

    Vote: Thumb up 12 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  21. tvb (4,196 comments) says:

    Milkgate is just hot air. it is a pity Judith Collins was clumsy in the manner she initially handled it. But that is all. She easily saw off questions yesterday in Parliament, it was a commanding performance. I am not a fan of her personality and her deficiencies made a storm in a tea cup much worse than it needed to be. But It is rare I disagree with her on anything and I see her as an asset for the Government especially amongst women, as polling for National shows.

    Vote: Thumb up 16 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  22. Alan (1,055 comments) says:

    @PG, “Comprehensive poll results including regional and gender breakdowns at NZ Herald”

    It’s not really that comprehensive, what I want is tables showing who people (report they) voted for last time and changes.

    UK polling companies regularly publish this, it’s the most important stat and NZ companies seem happy to ignore it.

    One of the few benefits of Roy Morgan (it’s self selecting panel is yucky) is that they record who their panel voted for last time.

    Vote: Thumb up 4 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  23. peterwn (3,144 comments) says:

    DPF is not the only one to miss it. Seemed TVNZ News missed it too – perhaps the rat was too big to swallow.

    Vote: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  24. Simon (680 comments) says:

    Except National aint center right. That explains the women thing.

    Tough to the left of National there is certainly a shower of shit hence National party support.

    If you are not in one of the shower of shit’s favored groups then the default position is to support National.

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  25. alloytoo (431 comments) says:

    “The popularity of John Key as Prime Minister has climbed by 4.6 points to 66.5 per cent. That is his best rating since the election but not as high as he reached in his first term when he often rated more than 70 against Phil Goff.”

    Don’t you love how the Herald contrives to make 66.5% approval rating (after two terms as pm) as a negative?

    Vote: Thumb up 10 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  26. BeaB (2,056 comments) says:

    Labour hate Judith Collins because she is smart, successful and capable. They always writhe with envy and resentment when a uppity National woman does well.

    We are the only country in the world where everyone knows what her husband does and everyone knows what she did in China but we have a wholly manufactured scandal about a cabinet minister daring to promote NZ products and a very successful NZ company in our biggest export market.

    A conflict of interest has to be more than just an interest – there has to be an actual conflict and I see none here.

    If this is the pathetic best gossipy Grant can manage it is clear why his party thought him unfit for leadership. Perhaps he resents the fact that he could not even take his husband for dinner in many of our important export markets.

    Vote: Thumb up 14 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  27. annie (537 comments) says:

    Labour’s only hopes seem to be Winston Peters and Kim Dotcom/Mana.

    ….and Peter Dunne, who has a history of turncoating to Labour if it will get him into a position of influence.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  28. dime (9,368 comments) says:

    “It is rare for a centre-right party to poll so strongly with women.”

    urgh there lies most of the wests problems.

    “i want to vote green cause they will give kids free food at school. we give prisoners free food but not kids?” wah wah wah i actually saw that on facebook.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 1 You need to be logged in to vote
  29. Duxton (579 comments) says:

    On the subject of Judith Collins’ responses to questions in Parliament yesterday, is there an online record of Question Time? I am unable to access the video version overseas…..

    I’d appreciate any guidance: I’d love to read how she chewed ‘em up!

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  30. Duxton (579 comments) says:

    Excellent…..thanks Fisiani

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  31. Richard Hurst (754 comments) says:

    Labour falling in Auckland and among women?….. Well there is only one thing for it- David Cunliffe is going to have to be become a women and change his name to Helen.

    Vote: Thumb up 2 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  32. emmess (1,368 comments) says:

    Labour falling in Auckland and among women?….. Well there is only one thing for it- David Cunliffe is going to have to be become a women and change his name to Helen.

    And move parliament to somewhere within a few k of Herne Bay so he can breastfeed

    Vote: Thumb up 1 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  33. gryfon (14 comments) says:

    Always jam tomorrow eh, Sir Cullen’s Sidekick? Good luck with that…

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  34. thedavincimode (6,528 comments) says:

    66.6% vs 11.1%. Gosh, is that 6:1?

    Hard to resist in the circumstances …

    Political quiz of the day:

    Who said: “I’ve got the measure of John Key and he knows it”.

    Was it:

    A. Bronagh Key
    B. Stephie Key
    C. Max Key
    D. Don Brash
    E. A home renovator from Herne Bay?

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  35. wikiriwhis business (3,883 comments) says:

    “And move parliament to somewhere within a few k of Herne Bay so he can breastfeed”

    Socialist women don’t breastfeed. In fact they don’t have children. They just tell the rest of us how to look after ours their way. J Key doesn’t argue with them.

    Vote: Thumb up 3 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  36. wikiriwhis business (3,883 comments) says:

    “we give prisoners free food but not kids?”

    Fortunately that problems been solved by a company too big to fail.

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  37. itstricky (1,536 comments) says:

    On the subject of Judith Collins’ responses to questions in Parliament yesterday, is there an online record of Question Time? I am unable to access the video version overseas…..

    I’d appreciate any guidance: I’d love to read how she chewed ‘em up!

    See DPF there is appetite for lots of posts on Jude from both ends of the spectrum. You aren’t looking the other way are you?

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 2 You need to be logged in to vote
  38. RightNow (6,646 comments) says:

    @itscun’liffe – stop looking the other way. Since you missed them these are the posts you are looking for:
    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/03/collins_and_oravida.html
    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/03/collins_apologises.html
    http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2014/03/jones_smears_collins.html

    I think you’ll especially like this bonus post: http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2013/11/cunliffe_calls_collins_a_trout.html
    I don’t know why cun’liffe isn’t polling better with women…

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote
  39. itstricky (1,536 comments) says:

    There are twice as many posts on, Taurima, for example. And half of what you’ve listed above is defence of her not analysis. He is positively looking the other way. Op. There’s the news @ 8 and Collins is mentioned again. Trout? Better than calling her feral like her muse has a tendency to do I suppose

    Vote: Thumb up 0 Thumb down 0 You need to be logged in to vote

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.