August 2014 public polls

September 5th, 2014 at 11:00 am by David Farrar

aug public polls

I’ve just published the August 2014 edition of my monthly newsletter summarising the in New Zealand and four other countries. There were a huge 10 in August (does not include the three since 31 August which will be in the September average).

The graph above tells a story around Labour, doesn’t it?

The executive summary is:

There were ten political polls in August – two each of Roy Morgan, One News Colmar Brunton, 3 News Reid Research, Herald DigiPoll and Fairfax Ipsos.

The average of the public polls has National 23% ahead of Labour in August, down 2% from July. The current seat projection is centre-right 65 seats, centre-left 49 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia the Coalition still trails but is regaining support.

In the United States the Republicans are favoured to gain control of the Senate in November. 

In the UK Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has declined to just 2%.The referendum on independence for Scotland has the no vote ahead by an average of 11%.

In Canada the Liberals remain in the lead over the Conservatives, and would be able to form a minority government on current polls.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. A new third table has been added, comparing approval ratings for opposition leaders in the four countries that have one.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on Epsom, the Maori seats, political donations, foreign investment, “Dirty Politics”, binding referenda plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself. 

 

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24 Responses to “August 2014 public polls”

  1. Inthisdress (322 comments) says:

    Cunliffe announced a second leadership bid after David Shearer’s departure from the leadership, running in the New Zealand Labour Party leadership election, 2013, and was elected leader on 15 September 2013. (wiki)

    Then look at the steep downward trend in red…I dare say they are regretting ditching Shearer. … oh, about now….

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  2. Unity (637 comments) says:

    It would be good if we could have the Conservatives in there too. I suppose they’re not because they aren’t in Parliament.

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  3. BeaB (2,164 comments) says:

    Poor old Annette King desperately tried to tell us the polls were ‘volatile’.

    Seven Sharp’s piece on Cunliffe and his staff begging people to take selfies really said it all. I saw John Key being mobbed yesterday. Radio NZ says that’s just because he is a ‘celebrity’ while Cunliffe’s interactions have ‘warmth’.

    What the polls show is that over 85% of us don’t like Cunliffe and over 75% don’t like Labour. What a great way to form a government with a rabble of other tiny minorities. With the gap closing between them and the Greens perhaps Russel Norman will be Prime Minister if the worst happens.

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  4. OTGO (579 comments) says:

    What happened between June 2011 to December 2011 with the Greens popularity? The Labour line is a sort of a mirror image but not really…

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  5. Fisiani (1,052 comments) says:

    The Cunliffe is increasingly disliked as people get to know him. Just imagine how he would plummet if his private life became public.

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  6. Harriet (5,200 comments) says:

    “…..The graph above tells a story around Labour, doesn’t it?….”

    Being that it is over 9yrs – 3 terms of government – and is still in continual decline – tells us that the country should be heading in the complete oposite direction of socialism – Labour’s core and soul. They’ve had leadership changes so that is not the issue. And they’ve also announced policy left right and center in the last 9yrs.Their central socialist core is then clearly the problem.

    But National has convinced everyone otherwise that socialism is here to stay – as their policies are based around that.

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  7. srylands (437 comments) says:

    It is interestintg that Green support doubled in the second half of 2011 to about 12%, a level which has been rock solid for them for the last three years.

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  8. OTGO (579 comments) says:

    Harriet 11.17 that is a very good point. National is as socialist as Labour on so many points.

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  9. Griff (8,419 comments) says:

    http://www.electionresults.co.nz/
    Epson
    ACT 79.6
    National 15.2
    Conservative 5.2

    Party vote ACT and get a vote that counts toward a more right leaning government.
    Party vote conservative and waste your vote…

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  10. Monty (899 comments) says:

    The question I have is will David Cunliffe now beat bill English’s 2002 record

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  11. markm (117 comments) says:

    Easy to see that the Labour numbers are wrong.
    The guy on the ladder, painting the lines, was bending down a long way , after painting the National line , that he’s simply overbalanced and brushed the canvas on his way down to the floor

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  12. OneTrack (3,361 comments) says:

    Go Cunners.

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  13. Ed Snack (1,940 comments) says:

    Yes, to me the other outstanding feature of the graph is (as others have pointed out) the near doubling of support for the Greens from Jun 2011 to Mar 2012. Looking at the graph hard, much of that *seems* to have come off National surprisingly enough, with some from Labour. National appears to be slowly regaining support back towards the 2008-2010 levels while Labour rose a bit back to 35% before its latest decline.

    NZF had a smaller but similar jump over a similar time frame.

    Can anyone think of what it was around June 2011 through to early 2012 that pushed both “major minor” parties up significantly while dropping National especially down. That’s the election period perhaps, by why the permanent impact. Curious.

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  14. James Stephenson (2,266 comments) says:

    The obvious major event in June 2011 was the earthquake, not sure how to explain the polls against that though

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  15. bythesea (3 comments) says:

    Might have been the eq’s in ChCh.
    Sweeping powers for CERA were being created and EQC was being overwhelmed.

    Maybe the govt was looking bad given the mess, but being in amongst it I was too busy to notice!

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  16. Inthisdress (322 comments) says:

    “The Cunliffe is increasingly disliked as people get to know him. Just imagine how he would plummet if his private life became public.”

    But Fisiani, that will never happen because it appears that only people on the left of the political spectrum are allowed to have a ‘private life’.

    Look at the outrage met when it was shown that Len Brown was bonking that chinese woman, and it was suggested he should not be trusted with public office compared to Worth losing a ministerial seat for the heinous crime of sending inappropriate texts to a woman who egged him on.

    Look at the howls of ‘rape culture’ when it was politically expedient to capitalise on the misfortunes of a Green-voting young woman, compared to the deafening silence from most of the same when another Green voter advocated raping Key’s daughter.

    John Key can have his views about South Africa from thirty years ago aired ad nauseum or a noisy demonstration outside his house organised by the likes of John Minto but the extreme views and ideas Minto espouse are kept curiously under wraps by the media during an election campaign, and much teh same can be said for Laila Harre.

    You see Key is open season, Minto is tapu.
    Key is a baby-eating capitalist, but Harre is a pure idealist with no interst in money at all.
    Ms. Key gets no privacy, but the misunderstood ‘Rap artist’ gets to pimp his own poverty while drawing state-funding.
    Worth loses a career, Brown gets a new car.

    Some get their private stuff hacked, and disseminated ‘in the public interest’ and some get to frolic through whatever bizarre lifestyle choices or infidelities they choose to while pontificating about ‘morals’ and ‘positivity’ because their privacy, somehow is more of a human right, than the other chap’s.

    Personally I don’t care a fig about Cunliffe’s ‘private life’ – which is just as well, because those who choose to arbitrate these things have probably decided it’s not ‘in the public interest’ for me to know anyway.

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  17. georgebolwing (1,011 comments) says:

    Dom Post today has a front page basically saying: game over, National wins. Even Radio NZ’s Suzy Ferguson was arguing with their political reporter that today’s polls show that National is poised to be able to govern in its own right.

    Yet on the front page of the Herald, they had a headline about a shark eating a camera and a big story about air traffic control failures over Auckland and a tiny little item on the side saying “National can govern alone, full coverage page 10″. Page 10. After the ads for the cheap camera and the photo of Mr and Mrs Pitt.

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  18. Alan Wilkinson (1,933 comments) says:

    I see Labour’s support from men is down to 18%. Apologising for being a man really worked for them, didn’t it? What a pitiful grovelling moron.

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  19. Kimbo (1,259 comments) says:

    @ Alan Wilkinson

    I see Labour’s support from men is down to 18%. Apologising for being a man really worked for them, didn’t it? What a pitiful grovelling moron.

    The focus-group data no-doubt suggested it was a worthwhile gambit. Perhaps the problem was in the execution…

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  20. Honeybadger (262 comments) says:

    Has Bill English stepped down as finance minister? or is that to happen after the election, in case the Nats win and NEED Winston for support?

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  21. Inthisdress (322 comments) says:

    Not an issue according to the polls and graphs, HB.

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  22. polemic (460 comments) says:

    I would like to see the Conservatives as well DPF is there some way that could be graphed out to get an idea how they are really tracking as i have a hunch they are actually getting far more grass roots support than we realise.

    The feeling I get is that Winston First stands for nothing much ahead of time except his lame old tried it on the NZ public before theories that he will put a bet each way to see how it goes- what a wimp !!!

    It stark contrast people can see that the Conservatives are standing for something serious and it gives stability and also makes you vote count and not get wasted depending who Winnie gets the most wine boxes from…..

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  23. Viking2 (11,673 comments) says:

    Slightly of topic but some cool signage.

    http://sunlive.co.nz/news/81635-hoarding-artist-strikes-again.html

    Even Simple Simon approves.

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  24. UrbanNeocolonialist (313 comments) says:

    Inthisdress 12:28, best comment of the month.

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