National’s 2011 Party List
| List No | Name | Effective List | 2008 List | Change | PV Needed |
| 1 | John Key | Electorate | 1 | +0 | |
| 2 | Bill English | Electorate | 2 | +0 | |
| 3 | Lockwood Smith | 1 | 12 | +9 | 33.2% |
| 4 | Gerry Brownlee | Electorate | 3 | -1 | |
| 5 | Tony Ryall | Electorate | 6 | +1 | |
| 6 | Nick Smith | Electorate | 5 | -1 | |
| 7 | Judith Collins | Electorate | 7 | +0 | |
| 8 | Anne Tolley | Electorate | 10 | +2 | |
| 9 | Chris Finlayson | 2 | 14 | +5 | 34.0% |
| 10 | David Carter | 3 | 9 | -1 | 34.8% |
| 11 | Murray McCully | Electorate | 11 | +0 | |
| 12 | Tim Groser | 4 | 15 | +3 | 35.6% |
| 13 | Steven Joyce | 5 | 16 | +3 | 36.4% |
| 14 | Paula Bennett | Electorate | 41 | +27 | |
| 15 | Phil Heatley | Electorate | 22 | +7 | |
| 16 | Jonathan Coleman | Electorate | 29 | +13 | |
| 17 | Kate Wilkinson | 6 | 30 | +13 | 37.2% |
| 18 | Hekia Parata | 7 | 36 | +18 | 38.0% |
| 19 | Maurice Williamson | Electorate | 8 | -11 | |
| 20 | Nathan Guy | Electorate | 18 | -2 | |
| 21 | Craig Foss | Electorate | 33 | +12 | |
| 22 | Chris Tremain | Electorate | 31 | +9 | |
| 23 | Jo Goodhew | Electorate | 39 | +16 | |
| 24 | Lindsay Tisch | Electorate | 19 | -5 | |
| 25 | Eric Roy | Electorate | 28 | +3 | |
| 26 | Paul Hutchison | Electorate | 23 | -3 | |
| 27 | Shane Ardern | Electorate | 24 | -3 | |
| 28 | Amy Adams | Electorate | 52 | +24 | |
| 29 | Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga | Electorate | 35 | +6 | |
| 30 | Simon Bridges | Electorate | 51 | +21 | |
| 31 | Michael Woodhouse | 8 | 49 | +18 | 38.8% |
| 32 | Chester Borrows | Electorate | 32 | +0 | |
| 33 | Nikki Kaye | Electorate | 57 | +24 | |
| 34 | Melissa Lee | 9 | 37 | +3 | 39.6% |
| 35 | Kanwaljit Bakshi | 10 | 38 | +3 | 40.4% |
| 36 | Jian Yang | 11 | 41.2% | ||
| 37 | Alfred Ngaro | 12 | 42.0% | ||
| 38 | Katrina Shanks | 13 | 46 | +8 | 42.8% |
| 39 | Paul Goldsmith | 14 | 43.6% | ||
| 40 | Tau Henare | 15 | 26 | -14 | 44.4% |
| 41 | Jacqui Dean | Electorate | 40 | -1 | |
| 42 | Nicky Wagner | 16 | 43 | +1 | 45.2% |
| 43 | Chris Auchinvole | Electorate | 42 | -1 | |
| 44 | Louise Upston | Electorate | 53 | +9 | |
| 45 | Jonathan Young | Electorate | 66 | +21 | |
| 46 | Jackie Blue | 17 | 45 | -1 | 46.0% |
| 47 | Todd McClay | Electorate | 54 | +7 | |
| 48 | Allan Peachey | Electorate | 34 | -14 | |
| 49 | David Bennett | Electorate | 44 | -5 | |
| 50 | Tim Macindoe | Electorate | 55 | +5 | |
| 51 | Cam Calder | 18 | 58 | +7 | 46.8% |
| 52 | John Hayes | Electorate | 50 | -2 | |
| 53 | Colin King | Electorate | 47 | -6 | |
| 54 | Aaron Gilmore | 19 | 56 | +2 | 47.6% |
| 55 | Jami-Lee Ross | Electorate | |||
| 56 | Paul Quinn | 20 | 48 | -8 | 48.4% |
| 57 | Paul Foster-Bell | 21 | 49.2% | ||
| 58 | Maggie Barry | Electorate | |||
| 59 | Ian McKelvie | Electorate | |||
| 60 | Mark Mitchell | Electorate | |||
| 61 | Mike Sabin | Electorate | |||
| 62 | Scott Simpson | Electorate | |||
| 63 | Claudette Hauiti | 22 | 50.0% | ||
| 64 | Jo Hayes | 23 | 50.8% | ||
| 65 | Leonie Hapeta | 24 | 51.6% | ||
| 66 | Sam Collins | 25 | 52.4% | ||
| 67 | Jonathan Fletcher | 26 | 53.2% | ||
| 68 | Heather Tanner | 27 | 54.0% | ||
| 69 | Denise Krum | 28 | 54.8% | ||
| 70 | Carolyn O’Fallon | 29 | 55.6% | ||
| 71 | Viv Gurrey | 30 | 70 | -1 | 56.4% |
| 72 | Karen Rolleston | 31 | 57.2% | ||
| 73 | Brett Hudson | 32 | 58.0% | ||
| 74 | Linda Cooper | 33 | 58.8% | ||
| 75 | Karl Varley | 34 | 59.6% |
National’s 2011 party list is above. The first column is their list ranking. The third column is what I call the effective list, which takes into account which candidates are likely to win their electorate seats. The assumption is that National will hold all 41 existing seats. In reality of course it is possible it may win some additional seats, or lose a seat. In the absence of public polling data, I go with the status quo.
The fourth column is their rank in 2008, and the fifth column is the change from 2008. These are interesting but you can read too much into them. For example Maurice Williamson has dropped 11, but that is simply because the Ministers are ranked in ministerial order, while in 2008 they were not.
The sixth column is my calculation as to what party vote National needs for that candidate to be elected on the list. It assumes a 4% wasted vote, and is approximate only.
So who are the big moves. The three biggest promotions are:
- Paula Bennett +27
- Amy Adams+24
- Nikki Kaye +24
A big vote of confidence in all three.
The two board only nominees (on top of Joyce and Lockwood) are Alfred Ngaro and Dr Jian Yang. Alfred stood for the Auckland Council last year, chairs the Pacific Health Committee of the Auckland District Health Board and in 2009 was awarded a Sir Peter Blake Emerging Leader Award.
Dr Yang is the associate Dean of the Faculty of Arts, and director of the China Studies Centre for the New Zealand Asia Institute at Auckland University. He is also chair of the Auckland Branch of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs.
If National wins 48% of the party vote, all current List MPs would be returned to Parliament. If they got 50%, then they would also get Paul Foster-Bell and Claudette Hauiti. At 53% every electorate candidate would get into Parliament – either via their seat or the list.
In terms of caucus diversity, and assuming a 48% party vote, National would have 15 female MPs out of 60, or 25%. A lot better than the old days when you could count the number on one hand, but not as high as it could be. The percentage women would increase to 28% if National gets 52%.
However several women have moved up the list significantly – Paula, Amy and Nikki have all had huge promotions as has Junior Whip Jo Goodhew (and all on merit in my opinion).
In terms of ethnicity, at 48% National would have seven MPs of Maori decent which would be 12% of Caucus. This is equal to the adult Maori population, which is 12% of the country. There would also be two Pacific MPs and three Asian MPs.
In terms of age distribution, 49% of the caucus would be in their 40s or younger and 51% in their 50s or 60s.
The list does not bring in much new blood. There is new blood coming in on the electorate side also, but also not a lot. This is not unusual for the first term in Government. Not many retire after one term. National’s real challenge will be in 2014. To enhance their chance of winning a third term (if they get a second term), they will need to have a significant amount of rejuvenation in both caucus and cabinet.