National’s 2011 Party List

List No Name Effective List 2008 List Change PV Needed
1 John Key Electorate 1 +0
2 Bill English Electorate 2 +0
3 Lockwood Smith 1 12 +9 33.2%
4 Gerry Brownlee Electorate 3 -1
5 Tony Ryall Electorate 6 +1
6 Nick Smith Electorate 5 -1
7 Judith Collins Electorate 7 +0
8 Anne Tolley Electorate 10 +2
9 Chris Finlayson 2 14 +5 34.0%
10 David Carter 3 9 -1 34.8%
11 Murray McCully Electorate 11 +0
12 Tim Groser 4 15 +3 35.6%
13 Steven Joyce 5 16 +3 36.4%
14 Paula Bennett Electorate 41 +27
15 Phil Heatley Electorate 22 +7
16 Jonathan Coleman Electorate 29 +13
17 Kate Wilkinson 6 30 +13 37.2%
18 Hekia Parata 7 36 +18 38.0%
19 Maurice Williamson Electorate 8 -11
20 Nathan Guy Electorate 18 -2
21 Craig Foss Electorate 33 +12
22 Chris Tremain Electorate 31 +9
23 Jo Goodhew Electorate 39 +16
24 Lindsay Tisch Electorate 19 -5
25 Eric Roy Electorate 28 +3
26 Paul Hutchison Electorate 23 -3
27 Shane Ardern Electorate 24 -3
28 Amy Adams Electorate 52 +24
29 Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga Electorate 35 +6
30 Simon Bridges Electorate 51 +21
31 Michael Woodhouse 8 49 +18 38.8%
32 Chester Borrows Electorate 32 +0
33 Nikki Kaye Electorate 57 +24
34 Melissa Lee 9 37 +3 39.6%
35 Kanwaljit Bakshi 10 38 +3 40.4%
36 Jian Yang 11 41.2%
37 Alfred Ngaro 12 42.0%
38 Katrina Shanks 13 46 +8 42.8%
39 Paul Goldsmith 14 43.6%
40 Tau Henare 15 26 -14 44.4%
41 Jacqui Dean Electorate 40 -1
42 Nicky Wagner 16 43 +1 45.2%
43 Chris Auchinvole Electorate 42 -1
44 Louise Upston Electorate 53 +9
45 Jonathan Young Electorate 66 +21
46 Jackie Blue 17 45 -1 46.0%
47 Todd McClay Electorate 54 +7
48 Allan Peachey Electorate 34 -14
49 David Bennett Electorate 44 -5
50 Tim Macindoe Electorate 55 +5
51 Cam Calder 18 58 +7 46.8%
52 John Hayes Electorate 50 -2
53 Colin King Electorate 47 -6
54 Aaron Gilmore 19 56 +2 47.6%
55 Jami-Lee Ross Electorate
56 Paul Quinn 20 48 -8 48.4%
57 Paul Foster-Bell 21 49.2%
58 Maggie Barry Electorate
59 Ian McKelvie Electorate
60 Mark Mitchell Electorate
61 Mike Sabin Electorate
62 Scott Simpson Electorate
63 Claudette Hauiti 22 50.0%
64 Jo Hayes 23 50.8%
65 Leonie Hapeta 24 51.6%
66 Sam Collins 25 52.4%
67 Jonathan Fletcher 26 53.2%
68 Heather Tanner 27 54.0%
69 Denise Krum 28 54.8%
70 Carolyn O’Fallon 29 55.6%
71 Viv Gurrey 30 70 -1 56.4%
72 Karen Rolleston 31 57.2%
73 Brett Hudson 32 58.0%
74 Linda Cooper 33 58.8%
75 Karl Varley 34 59.6%

’s 2011 party list is above. The first column is their . The third column is what I call the effective list, which takes into account which candidates are likely to win their electorate seats. The assumption is that National will hold all 41 existing seats. In reality of course it is possible it may win some additional seats, or lose a seat. In the absence of public polling data, I go with the status quo.

The fourth column is their rank in 2008, and the fifth column is the change from 2008. These are interesting but you can read too much into them. For example Maurice Williamson has dropped 11, but that is simply because the Ministers are ranked in ministerial order, while in 2008 they were not.

The sixth column is my calculation as to what party vote National needs for that candidate to be elected on the list. It assumes a 4% wasted vote, and is approximate only.

So who are the big moves. The three biggest promotions are:

  1. Paula Bennett +27
  2. Amy Adams+24
  3. Nikki Kaye +24

A big vote of confidence in all three.

The two board only nominees (on top of Joyce and Lockwood) are Alfred Ngaro and Dr Jian Yang. Alfred stood for the Auckland Council last year, chairs the Pacific Health Committee of the Auckland District Health Board and in 2009 was awarded a Sir Peter Blake Emerging Leader Award.

Dr Yang is the associate Dean of the Faculty of Arts, and director of the China Studies Centre for the New Zealand Asia Institute at Auckland University. He is also chair of the Auckland Branch of the New Zealand Institute of International Affairs.

If National wins 48% of the party vote, all current List MPs would be returned to Parliament. If they got 50%, then they would also get Paul Foster-Bell and Claudette Hauiti. At 53% every electorate candidate would get into Parliament – either via their seat or the list.

In terms of caucus diversity, and assuming a 48% party vote, National would have 15 female MPs out of 60, or 25%. A lot better than the old days when you could count the number on one hand, but not as high as it could be. The percentage women would increase to 28% if National gets 52%.

However several women have moved up the list significantly – Paula, Amy and Nikki have all had huge promotions as has Junior Whip Jo Goodhew (and all on merit in my opinion).

In terms of ethnicity, at 48% National would have seven MPs of Maori decent which would be 12% of Caucus. This is equal to the adult Maori population, which is 12% of the country. There would also be two Pacific MPs and three Asian MPs.

In terms of age distribution, 49% of the caucus would be in their 40s or younger and 51% in their 50s or 60s.

The list does not bring in much new blood. There is new blood coming in on the electorate side also, but also not a lot. This is not unusual for the first term in Government. Not many retire after one term. National’s real challenge will be in 2014. To enhance their chance of winning a third term (if they get a second term), they will need to have a significant amount of rejuvenation in both caucus and cabinet.

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