The predictions of the Fairfax press gallery team for 2015 were published on 1 January, but they don’t seem to be on the Stuff website. They were kind enough to send me a copy to blog, as I always appreciate their willingness to go out on a limb and make some predictions. Their 20 predictions were:
- Jacinda Ardern will win Labour’s “deputy idol” and be installed as Annette King’s replacement.
- Trade Negotiations and Climate Change Minister Tim Groser will retire to concentrate on a musical venture.
- The Government will bow to pressure and introduce a register of foreign buyers of houses – though it will tweak its role and name to hide its embarrassing climb-down.
- The Reserve Bank’s official cash rate will still be less than 4 per cent by Christmas.
- A NZ First MP will fall foul of the past.
- New Zealand troops will (still) be in Iraq by the end of 2015.
- Tension in the Green Party will spill into the open over whether it should kill or cuddle Labour.
- At least one senior MP will signal plans for a tilt at the mayoralty of a major city. (Yes, Phil Goff and Annette King are our top, but not only, suspects.)
- ACT leader David Seymour will graduate from under-secretary to ministerial rank.
- After February, National will not score more than 50 per cent in any mainstream New Zealand-based polls.
- A National minister will be forced to fall on his or her sword over a question of judgment.
- The Budget will focus on poverty, including incentives for those moving from benefits into training or work, but will not lift base benefits beyond indexation.
- James Shaw, Peeni Henare and Chris Bishop will be the stand-out MPs for their respective political parties among the 2014 year intake.
- Labour will be scoring at least 35 per cent in polls by the end of the year.
- Corrections Minister Sam Lotu- Iiga’s sentence in the portfolio will be shortened.
- Ron Mark will take our gallery bureau’s inaugural Mallard Shield for most ejections from the House.
- Marama Fox will make a bigger impact – but a lot more mistakes – than her co-leader of the Maori Party.
- Former justice minister Judith Collins will be back in the Cabinet, but not on the front bench.
- A former Labour front-bencher will quit politics for private enterprise.
- Winston Peters will celebrate his 70th birthday in April by announcing he is standing down as leader. (Worth it to be wrong, just to see his reaction.)
- New Zealand will win one sporting World Cup.
I agree with No 1. No 5 is interesting – do they know something, or is it a statistical probability?
For 8 I think Goff is far more likely than King.
No 10 is luckily excluding January.
No 14 is a big call, and a big reach for Labour.