Trump within margin of error in four of the five states he needs.

As we know in 2016 the national polls in the US were only around 2% out, but some of the state polls had greater errors.

I thought it would be useful to look at the five states Trump is trailing in and see if the gap is within the margin of error. One can calculate the probability that one candidate is actually ahead of the other candidate and if it is under 95% then it is within a normal margin of error.

Ohio – Biden 49.6%, Trump 49.4%

A 53% chance Biden is ahead so not statistically significant.

North Carolina – Biden 50.8%, Trump 48.4%

A 78% chance Biden is ahead so not statistically significant.

Arizona – Biden 50.8%, Trump 47.9%

An 82% chance Biden is ahead so not statistically significant.

Florida – Biden 51.6%, Trump 47.7%

A 89% chance Biden is ahead so not statistically significant.

Pennsylvania – Biden 52.9%, Trump 46.4%

A 98% chance Biden is ahead so statistically significant.

So in four of the five stats Trump needs, his gap in the polls is within the normal margin of error for 1,000 person poll.

The challenge for Trump is Pennsylvania. The 6.5% lead there is beyond a normal polling error. It is also the tipping point state, so that will be the one to watch out for on US election night.

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