Hamilton West is competitive

Newshub has reported on a poll Curia did for ACT in Hamilton West. It shows National ahead of Labour by 8.1% on the decided vote, and was done before any actual candidates were selected.

But as you would expect, there were large numbers undecided or not planning to vote. On the total vote you had just a 4.5% gap between National and Labour, which is within the margin of error for a poll of 400 people. That means there is a non-trivial (greater than 10%) chance that Labour is in fact slightly ahead in the seat.

The margin of error you see reported for a poll is for a result of 50% and based on all voters. The actual margin of error for individual results will depend on what the result is, and how many people gave a preference.

So my reading of the race is the seat is competitive, and the key will be what the undecideds do, what the turnout is and of course the actual candidate quality and campaign quality.