Paper margins for every electorate

On Patreon (paywalled) I write:

I have calculated paper margins for all 64 general electorates, and ranked them in order from most marginal to least marginal.

These are what I call paper margins. They take the split vote analysis for each seat in the 2023 election. The 2023 party vote is recalculated based on the new boundaries, and then the 2026 party vote is calculated based on the change is the nationwide party vote since the election in public polls, and the split vote analysis applied to the projected party vote.

It is important to be clear on what these do not take into account. They do not take account of any change of candidates, of how well an MP has done locally since the election, of any changes in how people might split their votes, and of whether the change in party votes is unevenly spread. They are basically the 2023 results adjusted for the new boundaries, and the current nationwide party vote.

Closer to the election I will do an individual profile of each electorate, which will apply a qualitative analysis to the election data, which will take account of candidate quality etc.

In the table below, I show who is leading on paper in each of the 64 seats, and what margin they lead by on paper. They range from 0.7% in Kapiti and Whanganui to 51.1% in Mangere!

Currently National is ahead on paper in 36 general electorates and Labour in 23 general electorates. The Greens lead in all three of their electorates, but by 5% or less for two of them.

The table of all 64 electorates is at Patreon.