Pierre Poilievre is the Leader of the Opposition in Canada, and the way he responds to this interviewer should be used as a training guide for politicians. He calmly doesn’t accept the premises of questions, asks for examples and after demolishing the questions, give a pitch perfect pitch for why people should support him.
There was an explosion at or near a (Baptist) hospital in Gaza. Within minutes Hamas said it was a missile strike from Israel that demolished the hospital and there were 500 dead.
Despite this claim coming from the same organisation that deliberately executed babies a couple of weeks earlier, and despite no corroborating evidence, the world’s media trumpeted this claim as front page news. It has caused riots and attacks against Jews and embassies.
The media never asked how you can know 500 people are dead within minutes. The death toll from the attacks inside Israel is still not fully known weeks later.
It now turns out that:
There is zero evidence that there was a missile from Israel but there are six different videos (including Al Jazheera and Tass) showing missile from Gaza that didn’t cross into Israel.
There is audio evidence of two Hamas operatives discussing the missile and that it came from the cemetery behind the hospital
The evidence points to the missile hitting the car park, not the hospital proper. While there is some damage to the hospital, it has in no way been destroyed.
There is zero evidence for the claims 500 are dead. Based on photos of the hospital, it looks very unlikely unless 400 of them were sitting in cars in the car park.
Any loss of life at the hospital is sad and tragic. But the media should be ashamed that they repeated an unverified claim from a terrorist organisation and published it so prominently. Millions of people believed the original story, and will probably never accept any other version.
A prominent Mongrel Mob president claims National’s gang policies are devastating, a breach of their human rights, and will create a “psychological war”.
This must be the best endorsement the new Government could hope for.
I am, I suppose, to some extent, what people call a rugby tragic. I was 8 years old when the All Blacks toured South Africa in 1976 (with a second All Black team in Argentina captained by Graham Mourie) and can still name the All Black squad that toured – and many of the South Africans. I hid radios in my room and wept when the All Blacks lost 11-12 to Western Province with the great Bee Gee Williams nearly charging right across field to save the match winning try. I probably watched every minute of every rugby test while growing up – plus all of the drama of the 1981 tour. My special heroes were Bee Gee, then Bill Osborne and Andrew Donald from my home city. I got to play a Ranfurly Shield game against the All Blacks (disguised as Auckland in 1987).
I had to stop playing in 1988 from a concussion (a very wise doctor) and took to coaching from 1991 through to 2003 with a range of school, provincial age group, Auckland University U21 and Auckland University Premiers. I was privileged to have Royce Willis, John Afoa, Jerome Kaino, Joe Rokocoko, Daniel Braid and 12 other RWC players, from a range of nations, come through my teams. Plus having to coach club games against the likes of Carlos Spencer who could lay waste the best laid plans.
I also have a treasured 40 year friendship with All Black assistance coach and former Ireland coach Joe Schmidt.
From all of those perspectives I have long held that the All Black victory in the second test of the 1996 tour to South Africa to be the greatest. Just the team lists show teams of legends – and Lomu was set to play until 24 hours before the game too. This was the first time NZ had won a test series in South Africa and was off the memory of losing the RWC final there in 1995.
I think the win against Ireland on the weekend was at least the equal of that match. A coaching staff of Ian Foster, Jason Ryan and Joe Schmidt that has, at times been little supported by the media and must have been baffled by the announcement of the next All Black coach well before the RWC. A series of lead up results that have not been perfect – including a pre-RWC loss to South Africa and opening pool match loss to France. Facing an Ireland team that had beaten them at home last year, are world no.1 and had won 17 matches in a row. And – facing the pressure of the consequences of a loss. In NZ we let our MPs and massively paid bureaucrats get away with repeated failure … but woe be tide a losing All Black coach.
The game had many remarkable aspects but they are all summarised in the last segment of the game when this team defended a powerful, skillful, committed and very well coached side. The All Blacks defended 32 phases with great trust in each other, great skill and patterns, incredible discipline and passion that can only come from believing in each other and their coaching staff. It was a great performance. Calling it the best All Black performance – given the circumstances – is clearly subjective but the evidence has weight. The performances of Savea and Cane were just incredible.
Why is that important? Because the shape and direction of a nation can be influenced and propelled by great sporting performances, sensational people in the movie industry (Peter Jackson, Taika Waititi, Jane Campion, Sam Neill), musicians, adventurers (Edmund Hillary and Peter Blake being archetypes), scientists (Earnest Rutherford, William Pickering), etc. They show grit, developed ability, aspiration and a kiwis can-do approach that has major influence. Feeling good, positive, aspirational about ourselves as a people also has loads of potential for improving key area like mental health (as does showing much more respect and understanding on the occasions when our best do come second).
For what it is worth from a rugby tragic – “full credit” to Fozzie’s men for that performance and all the best for the next hurdle.
Chris Hipkins will stay Labour Leader for a while, because the two main potential leaders are both out of Parliament – Michael Wood and Kiri Allan.
So what the pros and cons of other potential leaders?
Kelvin Davis – he is the deputy leader, but everyone knows it is tokenistic
Carmel Sepuloni – probably the most sensible choice. Delivered policies for Labour in welfare. From Auckland. Has presence. Could excite some of the base. Unknown appeal to wider voters though.
Ginny Andersen – more likely a possible deputy. Wellington based and her former justice and police portfolios could make it easy to attack her. Possibly too policy wonkiest.
Barbara Edmonds – more likely to be Finance Spokesperson. Not had enough senior experience to be leader.
Willie Jackson – would help win Maori voters back,. but do doubt alienate other voters
Kieran McAnulty – the case for Kieran was he is relatable and electable. Having lost Wairarapa in a huge swing dents that case.
David Parker – if they want voters back from the Greens, Parker could lead them back into new and higher tax territory.
Grant Robertson – too associated with the past. Would probably rather be Vice-Chancellor of Otago University
Mt Albert MP Helen White says she is “proud” of her election result despite keeping the historic Labour stronghold with the slimmest of margins.
On the preliminary results, White has reduced Labour’s almost 20,000 vote margin from the last election to just 103.
Newshub Political Editor Jenna Lynch said on election night that White “should be ashamed of herself” about that result.
On Tuesday, Newshub asked White whether she was embarrassed about almost losing the Mt Albert seat.
“No, I’m really, really proud of my result,” White responded.
Newshub followed up by asking how she had done so badly.
“What a ridiculous question, I didn’t do badly. I did really, really well and if you look at the stats you’ll see that.”
I think it its obvious who should take over from Chris Hipkins as Labour Leader – Helen White. With her pride in taking the safest seat in the country to almost the most marginal, she would be perfect to preside over Kiwibuild Mark II and Auckland Light Rail Mark VI.
UPDATE: Talbot Mills informs me that the poll that was reported by the NZ Herald as internal polling for Labour was “wrong”. I accept them at their word, so that should not be treated as an accurate reflection of their polling. This of course raises serious questions about why media prominently reported on an unpublished internal poll, that had “wrong numbers” according to the polling company that did them.
Lots of people asking how the polls did vs the provisional results. This will change with final results but for now, here it is how it looks.
This includes seven polls reported on by media in October – 1 News Verian, Newshub Reid Research, Roy Morgan, The Guardian Essential, Taxpayers’ Union Curia, Talbot Mills (Labour) and Talbot Mills (Corporate).
National 39.0% actual vs 35.0% poll average = National +4.0%
Labour 26.9% vs 28.1% = Labour -1.2%
Greens 10.8% vs 12.4% = Greens -2.2%
ACT 9.0% vs 9.0% = ACT -0.1%
NZ First 6.5% vs 6.8% = -0.3%
Te Pāti Māori 2.6% vs 2.9% = TPM -0.3%
TOP 2.1% vs 2.6% = 0.6%
So (so far) National performed 4% better than the polls and, other parties slightly worse and Greens significantly worse.
But there was some variation in the polls so let’s look at individual polls for individual parties.
National – all polls had them (so far) too low, with Verian closest and Roy Morgan furthest away.
Labour – Roy Morgan had too low, others too high with Talbot Mills (Corporate) closest.
Greens – Essential and Curia very close, and others too high.
ACT – Roy Morgan too high, Essential too low.
NZ First – Essential and Roy Morgan too high.
TPM – Curia and Talbot Mills (Labour) too high, Verian too low.
TOP – Roy Morgan and Curia too high
Now what about the average absolute error for each party and poll:
So the pollster with the smallest average absolute error (on provisional, final will change) is Talbot Mills (corporate), then Curia (for the 1% who don’t know, that is my company), Verian, Reid Research followed by Essential and Talbot Mills and Roy Morgan.
However the margin of error is different for a poll result of 40% and 2% so let’s look at whether each company’s result was within the expected margin of error.
So the Curia poll and Talbot Mills (corporate) poll was within the expected margin of error for six out of seven parties. Again may change with final results. Curia had National 3.1% too low and the MOE is 3.0% so if National drop 0.1% or more on specials that will be within the MOE. Talbot Mills (Corporate) had the Greens 2.2% too high vs an MOE of 2.1% so they may end up 7/7 also.
Verian and Reid Research got five out of seven within the MOE. Verian had Greens too high and TPM too low. Reid Research had Greens too high and National too low.
Essential got four out of seven parties within the MOE. They had National too low, Labour too high and NZ First too high.
Roy Morgan and Talbot Mills (internal Labour poll reported by media on the day before the election) only had three out of seven parties within the margin of error and four outside.
Both had National too low and Greens too high. Roy Morgan also had Act and TOP too high and Talbot Mills (Labour) had Labour and TPM too high.
Of interest the two polls that had the lowest average error – Curia and TM (corporate) were both completed before the final week, while the more recent polls were less accurate. However this may change again with specials (which tend to occur more in final week) so I’ll update this once we have final results.
The table below shows the size of the slaughter in the 46 seats Labour held. At this stage they lose a massive 28 seats, and only retained 18. And in three seats the change in majority was greater than 20,000. Of their five safest seats, they lost two to the Greens and are only 106 votes ahead in Mt Albert, previously their safest seat.
In 26 seats they lost majorities or had swings of over 10,000.
While Labour have gained more List MPs than they expected, the lack of electorate MPs will hurt them. Electorate MPs are seen to represent the community. They get consulted more by local government, they are more prominent, they get more resources etc.
Labour now only hold seats in a few areas – Wellington, Christchurch and Dunedin. They only hold five out of 22 seats in Auckland and the only area they hold outside the four big cities is Palmerston North.
In NZ we have for way too long sat back and considered our education system to be amazing. We would, of course, all wish it was. But a form of awakening has taken place in the last six years and I will not bore you with the statistics that are unequivocal.
The new government have the greatest opportunity in many generations to blast the NZ education system ahead and should have full motivation to make our system truly world leading.
From a metrics perspective this means:
almost all school age children are enrolled in a school or legally homeschooled.
at least 80% of NZ children attend school 90% of the time.
our curriculum is world class and clearly focused on academics that allows young people to become highly informed, creative and critical thinkers and young adults, at the end of schooling, with HUGE aspirations.
that families are fully engaged and we no longer accept socio-economics or ethnicity as an excuse for schools or students to underperform. Maori young people have as much ability as Asian young people and the gaps must be closed through aspiration and very hard work … not dumbing down everyone.
our outcomes must improve across all levels of NCEA (or alternatives), UE and tertiary outcomes.
our teaching workforce must become better qualified and skilled.
we must have a system, through Designated Character Schools (etc) that allows expert provision for children who do not fit the cookie cutter mentality. Some of these young people, when well cared for with different modes, become some of the highest achievers in our society.
There can be no excuses. The new government has a huge mandate for change in education and an opportunity to create a great legacy.
This will change with special votes and the Port Waikato by-election but as of now, the 54th Parliament has a 121 MPs – National 50 (+17), Labour 34 (-31), Greens 14 (+4), ACT 11 (+1), NZ First 8 (+8) and TPM 4 (+2).
The demographics of Parliament at this stage are:
Gender
68 men (56%) and 33 women (44%).
Proportion women by party is:
Greens 57%
Labour 56%
TPM 50%
ACT 46%
NZ First 38%
National 32%
Ethnicity
74 European MPs (61%), 30 Maori MPs (25%) 9 Asian MPs (7%), 8 Pacific MPs (7%) and 1 Latin MP (1%). Note one MP is both Maori and Pacific.
Proportion European by party is:
National 80%
ACT 64%
Labour 53%
NZ First 50%
Greens 36%
TPM 0%
Proportion Maori by party is:
TPM 100%
NZ First 50%
Greens 36%
ACT 27%
Labour 26%
National 10%
Proportion Asian by party is:
Greens 14%
ACT 9%
National 8%
Labour 6%
NZ First 0%
TPM 0%
Proportion Pacific by party is:
Labour 18%
Greens 7%
National 2%
ACT 0%
NZ First 0%
TPM 0%
Age
20s: 7 MPs (6%)
30s: 20 MPs (17%)
40s: 45 MPs (37%)
50s: 38 MPs (31%)
60s: 10 MPs (8%)
70s: 1 MP (1%)
National MPs close to the mean. Labour and NZ First skew older and Greens and ACT skew younger.
Area
Auckland 42 MPs (35%)
Wellington 15 MPs (12%)
Christchurch 10 MPs (8%)
Provincial Cities 23 MPs (19%)
Rural 31 MPs (26%)
Labour is Wellington heavy with 24% of their MPs based there.
Island
North 95 MPs (79%)
South 26 MPs (21%)
Sexuality
Based on public information, there are four gay MPs, one bisexual MP and one lesbian MP.
This headline is not one I ever thought I would write. In 2005 and 2017 when Winston chose Labour, I was somewhat relieved as I thought a Government reliant on him would end in tears.
Winston and I have never been exactly close. In fact he has threatened to sue me on occasion and I understand his nickname for me is Rumpelstiltskin, which I’m quite proud of as I can be a little imp 🙂
A Government with 69 seats pledged to it will be more stable than with 61 seats. And reaching out to Winston for a deal, when (at this stage) you don’t need to, engenders goodwill and respect, and people who know Winston say this is very important.
The numbers may change also. At the moment National/ACT is 61/121. The final vote might have them at 60/121 and needing NZ First. Now if you wait until end of November than if National wins Port Waikato you’re 61/122 and hung Parliament. If Māori Party only win three electorates then it 61/121. So basically there are multiple variables and you don’t want to wait until Friday 3 November or even Saturday 25 November to start negotiating. You will also get a better deal now, than if you wait.
I’d love to see a National/ACT Cabinet. But I’m not against NZ First having roles outside Cabinet. And in fact there may be some roles where having a NZ First Minister could be an opportunity. You could have Winston (or Casey Costello) as Minister of Crown/Maori Relations, who would handle the collective apoplexy of the establishment as it is made clear that public services should be based on need not race.
Consider the fun you could have if Shane Jones is (for example) Minister of Energy. The Greens and Te Pāti Māori will rage against him, while National focused on the cost of living and fixing the health and education systems.
If we want a three-term National-led Government, we want the three parties of the centre-right fighting the left on woke identity politics, envy taxes, soft on crime policies, wasteful spending – not fighting each other.
With 100% of places reporting (but specials still to come) there is a strong mandate for change. The three parties campaigning to change the Government got over 54% of the vote and the three pro-Government parties got 40%. In terms of seats it is 69 to 52. So the CR has gained 26 seats and the CL has lost 25 seats.
National will be very pleased with their result, which is higher than expectations. They have also routed Labour in electorates they never thought they would win like Mt Roskill. This is important. Labour hold just 17 of 72 electorates. Electorates give you profile and credibility in the community. In the North Island, Labour only hold Palmerston North and a bit of South and West Auckland, plus of course Wellington. I n the South Island they only hold Christchurch and Dunedin seats.
Christopher Luxon has become Prime Minister as a first term MP. This is an extraordinary achievement. The leadership and campaign teams of Christoper, Nicola Willis, Chris Bishop, Jo de Joux and Cameron Burrows did an amazing job, especially considering the most negative campaign we’ve ever seen by an incumbent Government, supported by numerous third parties groups such as the CTU. Their scare campaign failed.
Labour deserved to lose. Not because there are bad people in Labour. I’m sad at some of the talented Labour MPs and candidates who have lost, for they are good people. But Labour deserved to lose on the simple basis of incompetence. They failed to deliver on numerous iconic promises, and managed to increase taxation and spending by $60 billion a year yet produce worse outcomes across the board in health and education. While Bill English managed to produce zero spending increase budgets which saw improved outcomes in health and education. Labour’s first and worst mistake was abandoning the Better Public Services targets in 2017.
While ACT’s result was in line with recent polling, they will be disappointed they didn’t get a higher vote. However the twin in Tamaki for them is a real morale boost, and also tactically significant. If I was a National MP in an Auckland dark blue seat, I’d be making sure I’m very focused on my electorate, because the logical thing for ACT to do is to now try and win a 3rd Auckland electorate in 2023.
The Greens got a good result compared to 2020, but lower than they were polling (as I expected). Their win in Wellington Central was stunning, as is their likely win in Rongotai. This sets them up well, and Labour may face having lost younger progressive voters to the Greens.
NZ First got a good result, in line with the polls. Winston has got NZ First back into Parliament again, and they will have a significant role in Parliament, and quite possibly Government. While there will be challenges in working with NZ First, there are also opportunities – having three centre-right parties to balance the three centre-left parties.
Te Pāti Māori had a great night. Still unclear how many electorates they will end up with. Currently four but could be three or six. But a huge blow for Labour in these electorates.
We have just elected our 54th Parliament. The incumbent Prime Minister conceded within hours of the polls closing, and we yet again have a peaceful transfer of power – something that once we took for granted, but is becoming less common overseas.
Thoughts goes to losing MPs, candidates and supporters. The vast majority are involved because of a genuine desire to improve New Zealand. We can disagree on policies, but respect motivations. Also thoughts are with the many parliamentary staff who will not know if they have a job for several weeks.
I’ll be posting more today and tomorrow on potential Government options, and the likely makeup of Parliament.
Now the polls have closed, you can comment on the results as they come in.
UPDATE: Looking quite good for centre-right at this stage with 600,000 votes counted but as larger urban. booths come in it will tighten up.
UPDATE2: Hard to see how there is not a change of Government. Big question is whether NZ First is needed. Amazingly Melissa Lee leading in Mt Albert (Labour’s safest seat) but that indicates to me early results are more National friendly. Bloodbath for Labour in Wellington Central with Greens well ahead.
UPDATE3: For those interested, No has won the Voice referendum in Australia
UPDATE4: ACT have won Tamaki, Greens Wellington Central and Māori Party ahead in five of the seven Maori, so minor parties doing well in electorates.
A mob of suspected football hooligans tried to storm a public hospital in Israel after it was discovered a Hamas terrorist, captured after weekend massacres in the country’s south, was being treated for injuries alongside victims of the attacks.
At least three militants were known to have been treated by the medical system here until the government ordered a stunning reversal on Wednesday, directing they be taken to prison-based facilities away from the Israeli wounded.
So Israel treats wounded terrorists in hospitals, while Hamas has its people slaughter babies and children. Yet the far left demented activists still try for moral equivalence.
Here are the final polls for the Australian Indigenous Voice Referendum.
Newspoll 37% Yes 63% No
Focaldata 39% Yes 61% No
You Gov 40% Yes 60% No
Freshwater 40% Yes 60% No
Pollinate 43% Yes 57% No
Resolve 44% Yes 56% No
Roy Morgan 46% Yes 54% No
Essential 47% Yes 53% No
So all polls have the yes vote closing, but a large range from 37% to 47% for yes. We’ll find out who is the most accurate.
Also of interest will be the result for each state. Roy Morgan has predicted it will only pass in Victoria and fail in NSW, SA, WA, QLD and Tasmania.
Results will start to be known tonight, but they don’t count advance votes in advance so a final result won’t be known. However if it isn’t close, the outcome will be clear.
Reminder that this is Election Day so please do not make any comments before 7 pm about the election, how you voted or how people should vote etc. Comments on turnout are fine.
The Taxpayers’ Union have done a great report calculating the average tax paid by the average New Zealander over their lifetime. The details are:
Income Tax $649,000
GST $291,000
Rates $67,000
ACC $40,000
Fuel tax $21,000
Alcohol tax $11,000
Fire levies $10,000
Tobacco tax $7,000
This is highly progressive. Someone who is in the bottom decile or 10% of income earners will pay $33,000 in lifetime tax while someone in the top decile will pay $4,287,000 in lifetime tax. Remember that when people claim our tax system is not progressive enough!
Amazingly the New Zealand Government is still not listing Hamas as a terrorist entity, despite their slaughter of maybe 1,300 civilians including babies, children and women. They hide between the fiction that there is a difference between Hamas and its military wing.
Sign this petition to call on the Government after the election to designate Hamas as a terrorist entity, as they have already done for the American Proud Boys!
The EU, US, UK, Canada, Australia and Japan all have designated Hamas as a terrorist entity. The New Zealand Government’s refusal to do so makes us stand out like a sore thumb. It is the least we can do I response to the greatest slaughter of Jewish people since the Holocaust.
Feel free to share the petition link with your networks.
