Here’s my 20 predictions for 2024, which I’ll score at the end of the year. I got 16/20 right for 2023.

1. The three parties of Government will outpoll the three parties of opposition in at least 90% of public polls in 2024
2. The 2024 Budget will project a surplus by 2027
3. The new Public Service Commissioner will not be a current public servant
4. Donald Trump will win the GOP nomination for President
5. At least three Labour List MPs will resign in 2024
6. Chloe Swarbrick will replace James Shaw as Greens co-leader
7. There will be at least one by-election in 2024
8. The Spinoff buys Stuff
9. Donald Trump is convicted on at least one charge and sentenced to jail time
10. A City Mayor resigns in 2024
11. Floating mortgage rates are below 7% by the end of 2024
12. Economic growth in 2024 will be higher than in 2023
13. The minimum wage will be increased by 50 cents
14. Joe Biden is confirmed as the Democratic nominee for President
15. Chris Hipkins will remain Leader of the Labour Party
16. The Russia-Ukraine war will end
17. The UK Labour Party forms a majority Government
18. A Te Pati Maori MP will be named by the Speaker
19. Donald Trump will be re-elected President in November
20. Two Ministers will take maternity leave

Radio NZ reports:

Former Governor-General Sir Michael Hardie Boys has died aged 92.

Sir Michael was the Governor-General from 1996 to 2001.

Prime Minister Christopher Luxon paid tribute to him on social media in announcing the death.

“His distinguished life of service to New Zealand was one of dedication and reliability,” Luxon wrote.

Michael was a family friend. He was in the same class as my father for five years at Wellington College, so they have been friends for over 75 years. It was a quite exceptional class of a dozen pupils, as around half of them became university professors, and the rest reached the top of various professions.

He became a lawyer, and like his father became a High Court Judge, and then a Court of Appeal Judge (our highest domestic court at the time). He was appointed Governor-General in 1996, and laid down principles for determining how he would determine who could become Prime Minister under MMP. These principles have been used by all subsequent Governor-Generals.

An extremely dedicated servant of New Zealand. Farewell and rest well.

A post by PaulL, irregular contributor.

I listened to a great podcast by Russ Roberts interviewing Haviv Rettig Gur on the history of the formation of Israel, and why those who cast this as a decolonisation battle are wrong. In particular, he explains why the attacks by Hamas (and the general approach of terrorism to defeat an occupying power) won’t work with Israel.

The podcast is excellent(link here) , and well worth listening to (despite being an hour forty long). I think Gur makes some insightful points that put interesting colour on the current situation.

I’ll summarise some of it, as I know not everyone will listen, but I do recommend listening if you can, it’s very detailed and brings forward things I simply didn’t know from history.

The full list of 2024 New Years Honours is here. The titular honours are:

DNZM

To be Dames Companion of the said Order: 

Mrs Sarai-Paea Bareman, of Zurich, Switzerland. For services to football governance.

Ms Pania Tyson-Nathan, MNZM, JP, of Porirua. For services to Māori and business.

KNZM

To be Knights Companion of the said Order: 

Dr Scott Duncan Macfarlane, of Auckland. For services to health.

The Right Honourable Trevor Colin Mallard, of Dublin, Ireland. For services as a Member of Parliament and as Speaker of the House of Representatives.

Mr Ian Barry Mune, OBE, of Kumeu. For services to film, television and theatre.

Every Speaker of the House since WWII who served at least a full term has received a titular honour, or equivalent. The last one who did not was Bill Barnard who was Speaker from 1936 to 1943.

The NY Times has spent two months investigating allegations of rape by Hamas attackers inside Israel. Now it goes without saying the NY Times is not a conservative newspaper. In fact they even give Hamas an op-ed. So when the NYT says they have verified what happened, all but the most loathsome should accept the reality.

And what is the reality. Well here’s a summary:

• interviews with more than 150 witnesses, medical personnel, first responders, soldiers, rape counselors, and government officials along with the scanning of video footage, photographs and GPS data from cell phones.
• partially charred remains of a woman whose face is burned beyond recognition, and who is naked from the waist down, legs spread, her black dress hiked up.
• identified at least seven locations across southern Israel where women and girls were apparently sexually abused or mutilated and those the paper interviewed described finding the bodies of more than 30 women in and around the Supernova rave site and in two nearby kibbutzim in a similar state as Abdush’s — “legs spread, clothes torn off, signs of abuse in their genital areas.”
• Photographs viewed by The Times included ones of a woman in a besieged kibbutz who was found with dozens of nails driven into her thighs and groin.
• Footage viewed by the newspaper showed two dead Israeli soldiers at an overrun military base apparently shot directly in their vaginas.
• A paramedic from a commando unit told the newspaper he had found the bodies of two teenage girls, sisters aged 13 and 16, in a room in Kibbutz Be’eri with their clothes ripped. One was lying on her side with “bruises by her groin’ and the other “was sprawled on the floor face down, he said, pajama pants pulled to her knees, bottom exposed, semen smeared on her back.”
• came upon the body of a young woman lying on her stomach, unclothed from the waist down, legs spread, and who appeared to have been sliced open in her vaginal area, “as if someone tore her apart.”
• Similar scenes were discovered in at least six different houses in the Be’eri and Kfar Aza Kibbutzim, where at least 24 bodies of women and girls were found either stripped, tied up with zip ties or mutilated — sometimes all three
• The witness said she saw at least five women raped in front of her while she tried to hide.
• “They all gather around her… She’s standing up. They start raping her. I saw the men standing in a half circle around her. One penetrates her. She screams. I still remember her voice, screams without words.” “Then one of them raises a knife,” he said, “and they just slaughtered her.”
• Shoam Gueta, a friend of Cohen’s who was hiding with him, told the newspaper that he saw that the men were “talking, giggling and shouting,” and then one of them stabbed the victim repeatedly, “literally butchering her.”
• At least 10 bodies of female soldiers from a Gaza observation post were found with signs of sexual violence
• One victim was hiding in the brush on October 7 when she saw one terrorist rape and stab a female captive in the back every time she flinched while another cut off her breast. “One continues to rape her, and the other throws her breast to someone else, and they play with it, throw it, and it falls on the road,” she recalled.
• Another witness described watching five men take turns raping a young, naked woman “They start raping her. I saw the men standing in a half circle around her. One penetrates her. She screams. I still remember her voice, screams without words,” he remembered.
• One paramedic said that he found two teenage sisters,  13 and 16-years-old, with there pants and underwear pulled down and ripped with semen on them.
• Other first responders said they found women naked with hands tied behind their back or with the vaginas “sliced open.”

None of the perpetrators of these rapes and murders will be held accountable by Hamas. To the contrary they are feted as heroes. Those who call for Israel not to respond to the atrocities of 7 October, are implicitly trivialising what happened to those women.

A good start to a ceasefire would be Hamas handing over the rapists to stand trial.

MSN reports:

The New York Times is facing backlash after publishing an op-ed written by the Hamas-backed mayor of Gaza City describing the state of the Gaza Strip amid the war between Israel and the Hamas terrorist group that broke out in early October. 

The news outlet published the op-ed on Sunday, written by Yahya Sarraj, mayor of Gaza, of which Hamas has been the de facto governing body for more than a decade. The essay laments the actions of the Israeli military, particularly after its invasion of the Gaza Strip on Oct. 27 in retaliation to the Hamas terrorist attacks in Israel on Oct. 7.

I don’t actually have a problem with the NY Times allowing Hamas an op-ed. But their double standards are hilarious as they sacked their opinion editor because he allowed an op-ed by Republican Senator Tom Cotton calling for the military to be used against rioters.

Radio NZ reports:

Two months on from Labour’s election-night shellacking, leader Chris Hipkins still cannot pinpoint what the party could have done differently during the campaign to win.

Long may this lack of insight continue.

The months before voting day were dominated by a “vibe for change”, he said. “I’m not sure that there’s a lot that we could have done to shift that.”

The question they should ask is why was there such a strong mood for change, despite only being in their second term? Why did the country direction go negative for the first time since 2008?

Stuff reports:

At a November Hutt City Council meeting, Mayor Campbell Barry asked if there was anything that could be done about the stink before thousands of young people descended on Hutt Park for the Juicy Festmusic festival on January 5. The event is set to be headlined by T-Pain and Ashanti.

Residents could “stop pooing”, strategic advisor Bruce Hodgins told councillors.

I would have thought that the impact on local residents should be of paramount concern.

“Sometimes I’ve felt close to vomiting. You can’t escape when it’s in your home. It gets hot, but you can’t open a window.”

She said children at local schools were having trouble concentrating.

“Finally, it’s summer and the kids can get outside, but when they do, everyone is gagging.”

Jaysen Eveleigh of Auto Despatch previously​ said the stench had become a health and safety issue.

“It smells like a portaloo after a three-day festival. I have staff who won’t eat lunch in our building.”

A pity perhaps the plant isn’t by the town hall. I suspect it would be remedied in days.

It was revealed in November that Greater Wellington Regional Council had issued $7250 in fines in the last three years as a result of the plant breaching resource consent conditions with the stench. …

Kylie Hood said the fines hadn’t seemed to stop the problem and an independent voice was needed.

“They just continually breach their consent and there are no consequences, except for the fines which are picked up by the ratepayers.”

Fines only real work as an incentive when you have to pay the fine yourself, rather than have ratepayers do it.

Stuff reports:

Te Papa has announced it is reviewing a controversial exhibition, part of which was damaged by protesters last week.

The Signs of a Nation Te Tiriti o Waitangi exhibition has been at the museum since opening day in 1998. It has been changed a number of times but this would be the first full review of it, Te Papa said in a statement.

Te Papa co-leaders Tumu Whakarae/chief executive Courtney Johnston and Kaihautū/Māori co-leader Dr Arapata Hakiwai said today that the museum’s Te Tiriti o Waitangi display would be “renewed”.

Great to know that if you object to an exhibit at Te Papa, the way to get it changed is to vandalise it.

Hoping everyone has a peaceful and fulfilling Christmas 2023.

glædelig jul
Vrolijk kerstfeest
Ĝojan Kristnaskon
Joyeux Noël
Frohe Weihnachten
Καλά Χριστούγεννα
Nollaig Shona
Buon Natale
Felix dies Nativitatis
Nollaig Chridheil
з Різдвом
عِيد مِيلَاد مَجِيد‎
聖誕快樂, 圣诞快乐
חג מולד שמח‎
शुभ बड़ा दिन
メリークリスマス
즐거운 성탄절
Geseënde kersfees
Manuia le Kerisimasi
Meri Kirihimete

I receive some similar emails but there is a background to this …. …. that I cannot disclose … that makes it so powerful.

All the best to you all for your holidays Kiwibloggers – politicians – media – educators – etc – then please hit the ground running for the children of NZ for 2024.

Please keep in mind “back to the basics (even teaching them “brilliantly”) will not work for all” it will just restore us to 75% doing okay and children who are anxious, dyslexic, autistic, sensory deprived in their first 5.75 years (in many cases through poverty or family dysfunction) will still be out in the cold.

A “world-class” system is world class for everyone.

Please read the two emails word-for-word – it is a template for good.

Children will return to schools in NZ when they know they are loved, purposed and that the school day is worth their time in every way. 

Best

Alwyn Poole
Innovative Education Consultants
www.innovativeeducation.co.nz
www.alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

Hi there Alwyn and Merry Christmas to you and your family.  

I want to relay to you something  “Joe” said to me recently because positive feedback is always a good thing huh!  

Joe is now studying at Northern Health School and he’s doing great having gone thru a difficult time at Selwyn (I should say the staff there were very caring and tried hard to accommodate him but for various reasons mainstream school caused him a lot of mental health issues).  

Anyway when we agreed that he would move to Northern Health School Joe told me that he had realised that the teachers at MHMS had truly understood how to teach him to suit his learning style.  He said he felt that he hadn’t had the life experience and maturity when he was younger to recognise this.  In fact he had only come to the realisation once he’d experienced a big mainstream school. 

Whilst he got teacher aide support at Selwyn he said they didn’t usually have a lot of knowledge of the topic they were helping him with (which was frustrating), he found it difficult to capture the teachers’ attentions when he had questions and he spent all his time trying to explain to them that the way they were teaching wasn’t suiting how his brain worked and so it was impacting on his opportunities for learning.  

Joe has developed into a fine eloquent young man who can advocate for himself.  He is interested in chemistry and the law and I just thought it would be a nice thing to give you and your team some credit for the important part you played in. getting him to where he is now.  

Thanks and all the best!  

“Sally”

From: Alwyn Poole <[email protected]>
Date: Sun, Dec 24, 2023 at 1:55 PM

Hello Sally

What you describe is exactly why I established MHMS in the first place. For children of all dispositions to find their niche, their keys to development and understand that their uniqueness/differences are purposed and that embracing them is a key to fulfillment. 

I have no way of truly comprehending what you guys went through but please tell Joe I am so proud of the progress he is making.

Please reach out any time you think I can be of use.

Best – and thank you so much for this communication it means plenty.

Alwyn Poole
Innovative Education Consultants
www.innovativeeducation.co.nz
www.alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

Lady Deborah Chambers writes:

The issue now is whether the existing Royal Commission, announced in December 2022 by then Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, can be salvaged or whether we are better to start with a clean slate. I suggest the latter, for two reasons.

First, the methodology and related terms of reference are not fit for purpose. Second, the leadership of the Royal Commission is not conducive to a broad, independent inquiry.

I thought the former would be sufficient, but the arguments for scrapping it entirely and starting again are persuasive:

The terms of reference appear to presuppose that the public health response itself was justified and the only lessons we could take forward into the future might be about the effective implementation of that public health response.

In other words, there is no evaluation of Government decision-making. The microscope will be focused on how future governments can legislate and regulate more effectively on their chosen path.

The Government spent tens of billions of dollars on the response, so surely their decisions must be examined.

Decisions like extensive and preventative lockdowns at the later stages of the pandemic, vaccine mandates or closing our borders to Kiwis stuck overseas. These decisions have had painful consequences: sky-rocketing school absences, particularly among our poor, sky-high anxiety, missed cancers and a catastrophic effect on mental health, our economy and crime.

How were these decisions actually made by our Government? What cost-benefit analysis was done to reflect the social and economic burdens that necessarily accompanied life-saving measures? What was the true cost of these measures as it played out and how many lives were indeed saved? Were less invasive measures that didn’t breach our Bill of Rights evaluated? Did the Government deliberately exacerbate a climate of fear to promote compliance with various regulations and to what extent did the media support such an agenda? Was the Government’s additional focus on protecting the health of the Māori and Pacific Islander communities proportionate to outcomes for those communities? What expert advice was the Government receiving – was a broad range of views sought (within reason)? And how accurate was the Government’s statistical information that it based these decisions on?

All great questions, we should get answers for.

Up close, the existing Commission looks like a giant, expensive, rubber stamp to simply approve the last Government’s policy in regard to Covid-19. As constructed, this inquiry will predictably be an expensive exercise in missing the point. The response to Covid-19 was not just a scientific question. It was also a social and economic question and that evaluation, and the independent leadership to undertake that evaluation is glaringly absent.

Whatever mistakes were made at the time, it is imperative that the coalition’s inquiry is an opportunity to learn from them. The Government needs to scrap the current Commission completely and start again. Anything else will be just “lipstick on a pig”.

I am persuaded and agree.

Reporters without Borders released:

In response to the new Deputy Prime Minister’s repeated verbal attacks on the media, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) calls on New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to reaffirm his government’s support to press freedom.

I thought this was a joke at first. Winston having a go at the media (as he has done for 20+ years) suddenly has RSF demanding the PM intervene and commit to press freedom.

RSF are being rather precious. With journalists being killed and arrested around the world, their focus on New Zealand is rather weird.

The Herald reports:

An Auckland man convicted of strangling his partner will be monitored ‘like a hawk’ by a judge who said it was only by luck he had not killed her and she worried he could kill in future if he does not change his ways. She is sick of seeing strangulation cases before her and is desperate for people to realise the consequences of their actions

So the judge said it was luck he didn’t murder her, he may murder in future and wants people to raise consequences of their actions. So how much prison time did this guy get for an offence with a seven year maximum?

Before I answer that, and many of you already have guessed, let’s do more background on the offender.

• January 2022, Emily was assaulted at least three times – Pete ripped her hair from her scalp in clumps, pushed her to the floor and screamed and shouted at her as he stood over her.
• In the final assault, he bent down and put his hands around her neck, squeezing briefly, relaxing his grip then strangling her for at least 30 seconds.
• Pete has a previous family violence conviction from 2012 for assaulting another woman.
• “Police have had to come to your house because somebody there has called them, or a next-door neighbour has done so, 26 times and nine in the last two years,” Judge Ryan said.
• Pete has also had three protection orders granted against him in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

For all that, he got seven months home detention!

The reform agenda of the new President of Argentina is bold, and much needed (inflation at 160%). It includes:

• Elimination of a law regulating rent
• Abolish rules preventing the privatization of state enterprises.
• Modernization of labor law to facilitate the process of creating real jobs
• A series of deregulatory measures affecting tourism, satellite internet services, pharmaceuticals, wine production and foreign trade.
• Spending cuts equivalent to five percent of gross domestic product
• Huge cuts in generous state subsidies of fuel and transport
• A halt to all new public construction projects
• A year-long suspension of state advertising

I hope he succeeds!