These are the average scores on a 1 to 5 scale that CEOs gave to various politicians in the Herald’s Mood of the Boardroom survey.
Labour Ministers did in fact get relatively high ratings from CEOs early on in Government. But the outcomes in so many areas have been terrible, the ratings have fallen.
The Australian reports the latest Newspoll on The Voice voting intention:
Interesting divergence between university and non-university Australians.
The Spinoff reported:
Winston Peters has repeated his claim that Bill English said he was about to be rolled as National leader during negotiations after the 2017 election.
According to the New Zealand First leader, English said during post-election negotiations that he was about to lose his position as leader of National. It’s part of the reason, claimed Peters, that he decided to go with Labour. Ultimately, English resigned as National leader the following year.
Peters has made the claims before but said them recently during the Newshub multi-party debate. “You don’t understand how critical it was because I was talking to a man who in his first conversation with me says they are about to roll me,” Peters said during the debate.
He refloated the claims today during an interview on RNZ’s Morning Report, saying Bill English had told him, “[Judith] says she’s got the numbers, but she hasn’t.”
Speaking to Newsroom last week, English denied ever making such remarks to Peters. “It’s a ridiculous claim… a fabrication.”
It is total nonsense. It has zero credibility.
This should ring warning bells. What is to stop Winston pulling out similar nonsense this election and if he gets in, supporting Labour back into Government on the basis of a fictitious conversation.
Yahoo News reports:
Former President Donald Trump, his top executives, and heirs were declared completely liable of “persistent and repeated fraud”—and the real estate empire was unceremoniously stripped of its business licenses in New York—after a judge’s powerful ruling Tuesday ahead of a massive trial that seeks to hit them with more than $250 million in penalties for bank fraud.
And in a stunning development, the judge has already ordered the complete dissolution of the fabled Trump Organization–the tycoon’s pride and joy, the empire that made him famous and elevated him into the White House. The Trump Organization and its sister companies will be sent into receivership to be under the control of a court-appointed officer.
In his 35-page opinion, Justice Arthur F. Engoron tore apart what he called the Trump family’s “bogus arguments” and obstreperous conduct. And he summed up the entire defense as “a fantasy world, not the real world.”
“In defendants’ world: rent regulated apartments are worth the same as unregulated apartments; restricted land is worth the same as unrestricted land, restricts can evaporate into thin air… all illegal acts are untimely if they stem from one untimely act; and square footage [is] subjective,” he wrote.
This decision will be harder to ignore than the others. A potential $250 million penalty is a lot, especially when Trump’s actual net worth is so uncertain.
The judge seemed particularly annoyed at what he described as the Trumps’ inability to run their business ethically. He had previously assigned a former federal judge to oversee aspects of the Trump Organization to ensure that it did not slyly shift assets ahead of the trial—only to discover that executives wouldn’t let the court-appointed monitor do her job.
“Even with a preliminary injunction in place, and with an independent monitor overseeing their compliance, defendants have continued to disseminate false and misleading information while conducting business,” he wrote.
That seems a very unwise thing to have done.
Chris Hipkins keeps saying you can’t cut much spending without impacting core public services. Well Alex Holland has compiled a great six year record of much of Labour’s spending. It takes a while to read all of it, but you should.
In 2017 when Labour came to power, crown spending was $76 billion per year. Now in 2023 it is $139 billion per year, which equates to a $63 billion annual increase (over $1 billion extra spend every week!) In 2017, NZ’s government debt stood at $112 billion. Today, excluding an accounting trick, that debt is now doubled at $224 billion or $115,000 per household. Meanwhile, in 2017 individual tax payers paid the government $33 billion. By 2023 this had gone up 67% to $55 billion to help fund Labours spending. Here is just some of the wasted spending (which most media swept under the carpet):
The Herald reports:
The plan is incredibly tight, however, with the next three budgets each promising less new spending than any budget in the last term of Government.
The operating allowance (a Treasury term for new day-to-day spending) will be $3.5b next year, $3.25 the year following and $3b in the two subsequent years.
That is well below the three operating allowances this most recent term of $4.8b, $5.9b, and $4.8b.
This all comes down to credibility. Labour has never ever kept spending to a level they promised. In 2017 they promised to keep spending to under 30% of GDP and now it is forecast to reach 33.5%. The difference by the way is around $14.5 billion a year.
Their spending in 2023 is more than $20 billion greater than they forecast in their 2019 “wellbeing” Budget.
So the notion that they can magically somehow do three more years in Government (with the Greens and Maori Party) and announce almost no new spending is farcical.
This is in contrast to National when Bill English actually did manage to keep expenditure under control with no increase in overall spending in a couple of years. And with much better health and education outcomes.
Yesterday’s Curia Poll on Auckland Central had Mahesh Muralidhar just behind Chloe Swarbrick 24% to 26% – with 29% of the vote undecided. (NB: Felix Poole is no relation).
A win for Muralidhar can only be a good thing for the families of Auckland Central (that includes Waiheke Island).
The educational need in the area is massive – both for families living in the area and for parents who commute in and have virtually no central options for their children. Many have to leave very early for drop-offs elsewhere and much more need for after-school care back near their homes.
Swarbrick states that she is neuro-diverse. “Throughout her first few years at school Swarbrick says she was relatively decent, but she says the wheels “fell off” in her later years.”
I was stunned to see her begin to debate David Seymour on a recent AM show about education provision. The Greens have – for a very long time – been, at best, disinterested in education (although they have a love for indoctrination). I was stunned with Swarbrick because within the last six years I have been involved in an application for a Designated Character School near an Auckland city transport hub for 480 – ten to fifteen year old – students and with a model that suits those who can be classified as neuro diverse. This would be a partial solution to both problems state above. Seeing how the media paints Swarbrick as big hearted I reached out to her on behalf of these young people – thinking that she would only be able to see good and would advocate to government/the Ministry of Education on their behalf.
She choose not to actively advocate because (in an email to me):
“I know you have other political allies who are also fighting this fight for you. You know that you have multiple times issued press releases and public commentary attacking me and the Greens.”
I most certainly had spoken against the 2020 Cannabis referendum. To have used that as a reason not to advocate for a high quality new school for young people is/was inexcusable. She also clearly did not understand that the Designated Character School would be free for those attending. She wrote: “In the middle of all of that are children and young people, who deserve a high quality, free education. That is where our focus lies.”
I am well aware that she will get in on the list anyway (unless the Green vote collapses) – but – to those 29% undecided in Auckland Central, please vote for Mahesh Muralidhar as your electorate MP.
Alwyn Poole
Innovative Education Consultant
Cambridge Festival of Sport
www.innovativeeducation.co.nz
www.cambridgefestivalofsport.co.nz
www.alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/
NZME announced:
Newstalk ZB is expanding digitally, with a new subscription service as part of a revamped website – and a high-profile writer is leading the charge as editor. …
Philip Crump, who has carved out a reputation as an agenda-setting writer through his Substack blog and on X (formerly Twitter) under the pseudonym Thomas Cranmer, has been hired as the editor of ZB Plus.
The former lawyer said no topics would be off-limits.
“ZB Plus is all about building on the success and quality of Newstalk ZB’s audio experience with a superb digital experience to match,” he said.
“Subscribers will have unparalleled access to insights from some of the country’s best-known radio hosts and political commentators, journalists and respected business, economic and political columnists.”
The site is recruiting journalists and a stable of columnists is also being confirmed.
This is great news. Philip has done immensely valuable investigative journalism through Twitter and Substack and having that exposed to a wider audience is a very good thing.
Several columnists, including Katherine Rich, Muriel Newman, Bruce Cotterill andFran O’Sullivan, have already been confirmed, among others, to complement news content.
I’ll be tempted to subscribe!
The Australian reports:
Daniel Andrews has announced his resignation.
The Victorian Premier made the announcement accompanied by wife, Catherine, at a snap press conference outside the Victorian parliament.
In one sense this is not a huge surprise. His favourability rating went negative in August for the first time ever. But he has been Premier for nine years and Labor Leader for 13 or so. However he won his third term just last year and the next election is not until 2026, so it is unusual to depart so soon after an election.
The WA Premier resigned this year also.
Both Liam Hehir and Robert MacCulloch point out that the so called fact checking of the first leaders debate by Auckland University’s Public Policy Institute ranged from flat out wrong to conflating opinions and facts.
The latter points out:
Of the 5 “false” statements they list, one is about economics, my subject:
• No fruit and veg GST savings will be passed on to customers (Luxon) – Grocery Commissioner will monitor pricing to prevent this.
However the academics are themselves wrong – since the Grocery Commissioner’s legal powers to enforce passing on the GST cut only apply when anti-competitive behavior is being practiced. If the elasticity of demand of fruit & veges is very high (that is, even a tiny drop in prices would lead to a large increase in demand) then barely any of the GST cut would be passed on to customers. Hence it is legitimate for Luxon to hold that view, unless the academics can produce evidence of their own elasticity-of-demand estimates across a range of such products that support their view (which they haven’t done).
I suggest TVNZ be more careful when it “fact checks” our party Leaders and labels things as “mostly untrue” or “false”. The only patently false statement I have heard these past days was the PM stating that the whole 100% tax cut on fruit and veges would be passed onto consumers, because he had appointed a “grocery commissioner”. What a porker.
A good fact check would have referenced the research done by the Tax Working Group, views of Treasury and IRD and overseas evidence. But instead they merely asserted their own views, based on a false understand of the law.
Party Vote
Governments
Preferred PM
The incumbent PM is now 5% behind the Opposition Leader as Preferred PM. That is a rare achievement.
Nicola Willis points out:
Labour’s spending promises will see government debt skyrocket even further, with no funding set aside for $51 billion of policy commitments like Light Rail and Lake Onslow, National’s Finance spokesperson Nicola Willis says.
“Labour’s economic mismanagement has seen government debt blow out from $5 billion in 2019 to over $100 billion. But that is just the tip of the iceberg, with major policy commitments remaining unfunded.
Major Labour policies that remain unfunded include:
- Auckland Light Rail, expected to cost up to $29.2 billion
- Wellington Light Rail, expected to cost around $5 billion
- Lake Onslow power scheme, expected to cost $15.7 billion
- Income insurance, which would cost the government as an employer $860 million over four years
- GST free fruit and vegetables, which is estimated to cost an extra $411 million over four years
“Every single year, Grant Robertson has blown the budget and broken his spending limits – because Labour can’t manage money and wasteful spending is in Labour’s DNA.
Think how much your power bills will go up paying for Lane Onslow?
Lindsay Mitchell writes:
While there will not be another quarterly release of benefit numbers prior to the election, limited weekly reporting continues and is showing an alarming trend.
Because there is a seasonal component to benefit number fluctuations it is crucial to compare like with like. In the ten week period to September 15, 2023 the number of people on a main benefit has risen by 6,768 or almost two percent, whereas in the ten week period ending September 16, 2022 the numbers were virtually flat with a very small decrease of 141 recipients.
This is pretty huge. Almost 700 people a week are moving onto a benefit.
Stuff reports:
National has promised to return many State Highways to 100kph from 80kph if elected.
Speaking in the Wairarapa on Sunday, National’s transport spokesperson, Simeon Brow said his party would repeal and replace the rules that set speed limits so economic impacts – including travel times – and the views of road users and local communities counted, alongside safety.
“We anticipate this resulting in highways going back to 100kmh speed limits, except where it would be unsafe to do so. Similarly, we’ll restore local roads to 50 km/h from 30, except where that would be unsafe,” he said.
It would also increase speed limits to 110km/h on the Kapiti Expressway and Transmission Gully, and on the Puhoi to Warkworth motorway if a current review finds that would be safe.
All excellent stuff. If you follow the logic of the current Government then every road in NZ should have a 30 km/hr speed limit. Speed limits should be based on the quality of the road.
The Waikato Times reports:
A Hamilton meter reader bashed on the job was left with such severe brain injuries he no longer recognised his own children, who described him as an echo of the man they once knew.
Even the victim’s hugs were different, a court heard.
Sentenced to 28 months’ jail Adam Battensby, 33, wept in the dock as his own father told him he had brought shame on their family.
The offender is a recidivist who was on bail for other offending at the time. He almost killed the victim and has left him severely brain damaged.
But he could be out on parole in just nine months. Incredible.
National has released a 100 point plan for rebuilding NZ’s economy. Some the points I think are worth hightailing are:
Voters can choose change or they can choose the status quo.
A reader writes in:
The S.B. Group is a registered third-party promoter set up for the 2023 election.
The Group runs ‘VoteWise‘, an astroturf campaign explicitly focused on promoting Shane Jones’s New Zealand First candidacy in Northland.
The Group is directed by Glenn Inwood (along with Paul Heffernan and Daniel Tither).
A Dom Post article outlines The Group’s links to Voices For Freedom and Inwood’s historic ties to the fisheries, whaling, and tobacco industries. Inwood once was spokesperson for Te Ohu Kai Moana (the Treaty of Waitangi Fisheries Commission) when it was shared by Shane Jones.
In an interview with The Platform, Glenn Inwood refuses to disclose The Group’s donors.
According to the Electoral Commission’s Third Party Handbook:
If your election advertisement promotes a candidate or registered party, the full cost of that advertisement counts towards both your expense limit and that candidate or party’s expense limit.
The candidate spending limit is $32,600, which could easily be reached by New Zealand First before any input from third parties.
The S.B. Group appears to be exploiting a loophole in electoral law:
Third-party promoters (who usually run nationwide campaigns) only need to disclose expenses post-election if those expenses surpass $100,000 – which is unlikely in the case of The S.B. Group’s campaign for an isolated electorate seat. This means The S.B. Group can file its expenses as ‘N/A’ and there will be no evidence of any breach in spending limits. (See 2020’s third-party returns for examples of groups doing this for nationwide campaigns.)
Additionally:
You must get written authorisation from a party secretary or candidate before you can promote that party or candidate in your advertising.
Of course, if Shane Jones has not given The S.B. Group authorisation, then he can protect himself by saying he has nothing to do with the VoteWise campaign. But it beggars belief that he is not at least aware of the campaign. The S.B. Group and NZ First appear to be sharing video material for use in their respective ads.
Key questions for Shane Jones:
Are you familiar with The S.B. Group or its VoteWise campaign?
Liam Hehir looks at the rules for the Leighton Baker Party and finds:
This raises real issues about whether such a set of rules should have been accepted by the Electoral Commission as the Electoral Act requires democratic candidate selection.