The Herald has a lengthy profile of Christopher Luxon. Well worth taking the time to read.

1. Audrey Young: it will be a miracle if Chris Hipkins can rescue his Government from this
2. Barry Soper: Dame Jacinda Ardern left Chris Hipkins to clean up the mess she created. “The Ardern/Hipkins Government have failed on so many fronts, despite their unbridled power, the strongest majority since the first Labour Government of Mickey Joseph Savage 1935 …This Government has left a lawless, impoverished, struggling country, longing for relief.”
3. Jenna Lynch: Kiri Allan’s sudden departure leaves Labour fighting for political survival, public confidence
4. Fran O’Sullivan: The Government needs to be put out of its misery with an early election.
5. Kerry Woodham: The Government is a rudderless ship.
6. Felix Desmarais: Did Labour just lose the election?
7. Jonathan Milne: Labour’s car crash of an election campaign

You have to agree with Fran that the humane thing to do would be to put the Government out of its misery.

Over the next three months I will profile all 72 electorate races, including a prediction being one of safe, likely, leans or too close to call. These will all be exclusively on my Patreon (sub needed).

In 2020 I went from North to South. In 2023 I am going to go alphabetically, so am starting with Auckland Central.

I’m including this initial one on Kiwiblog, so people can see what they will get if they subscribe.

The race for Auckland Central 2023

2020 Results

Majority: Gre 1,068 (64/72) or 3%
Nat Party Vote: 21% (51/72)
Lab Party Vote: 46% (49/72)
Gre Party Vote: 19% (4/72)
Nat Candidate Vote: 28% (46/65)
Lab Candidate Vote: 33% (68/72)
Green Candidate vote: 35%
Nat Candidate Vote/PV: 130%
Lab Candidate Vote/PV: 70%

2023 Candidates

Green MP Chloe Swarbrick won the seat in 2020, after the retirement of Nikki Kaye. Prior to Kaye winning it in 2008, it had been a safe Labour seat. Swarbrick is standing again.

The 2020 Labour candidate Helen White, who was widely seen to be lacklustre, now is standing for the safe seat of Mt Albert. The new candidate is Oscar Sims a software developer and urban housing activist. Labour selected him over List MP Naisi Chen, when could be a mistake considering a third of the electorate is Asian.

National’s candidate is Mahesh Muralidhar, an entrepreneur and venture capitalist. He is running a high profile campaign, and has good links into the large ethnic community in the seat.

Also standing is Ted Johnston for New Conservatives and Damian Sycamore for TOP.

Demographics

Auckland Central is a seat for the young and childless. It has the lowest proportion of children in the country and the highest proportion of 25 to 35 year olds.

33% of the electorate are Asian and it has the highest proportion of Middle Eastern/Latin American/African residents in NZ at 5%.

Only 45% of the electorate were born in New Zealand – the lowest percentage in the country.  A third of those born outside NZ have lived here for less than two years, so are probably overseas students.

40% of residents have lived at their current address for less than a year – the most transient population in the country. 

A key issue may be turnout for those who are new to New Zealand. Historically their turnout is less than those here longer term.

2023 Outlook

Auckland Central is a red seat. It was held by the left for 90 years and votes left on the party vote. Labour and Greens got 65% of the party vote last election, the 20th highest in the country.

Incumbent MP Chloe Swarbrick has huge name recognition nationally. She often polls up to 5% as Preferred PM, and is in the media often, including as a columnist in the NZ Herald. 

Labour’s candidate is not well known, but likely to perform relatively better than Helen White. However Labour is far less popular than in 2020.

National’s Emma Mellow came third in 2020, but that was on the back of a disastrous performance for the party nationally. With another good candidate in Mahesh Muralidhar, they could end up in at least second place.

Overall I rate the seat as Likely Green hold. Swarbrick is popular with both Labour and Green voters, and enough Labour voters will choose her over Sims that she should hold on.

The Herald reports:

Justice Minister Kiri Allan has resigned as a Cabinet minister after being charged with reckless driving and resisting arrest in Wellington last night.

Allan was taken into police custody on Sunday night after a car crash in Wellington and “is assisting with inquiries”.

A statement from Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said that Allan was taken into custody and held in Wellington Central Police station after the crash on Evans Bay Parade in Wellington at 9pm last night.

She was charged with reckless driving and resisting arrest and was released custody at 1am Monday, Hipkins said.

What a sad end to a political career.

A car crash could happen to most people, but to have a Cabinet Minister resist arrest is almost unheard of, let alone the Minister of Justice. She’s obviously been under considerable pressure, but it is hard to fathom how she could have done this.

UPDATE: The information given out by Chris Hipkins was incorrect. Allan was only charged with careless driving and was not charged with resisting arrest.

The Herald reports:

Two of Act’s current MPs are keeping a stiff upper lip following their recent demotion on the party’s list, which risks them missing out on another three years in Parliament.

Chris Baillie and Toni Severin were the biggest losers in Act’s list for this year’s general election, released on Sunday. Baillie, ranked fourth in 2020, fell to 17th while Severin dropped from ninth to 14th.

Baillie, speaking to the Herald last night, admitted he hadn’t been expecting to drop so far down the list but said he was largely unfazed by it, citing additions of high-profile candidates such as ex-Federated Farmers president Andrew Hoggard and former National MP Parmjeet Parmar.

“I sort of suspected that there were a few others in the wings who would be really good contenders, so yeah look, I’m not bothered,” he said.

“I’d love to spend three years actually having a bit of say in the legislation as opposed to these three years, but if [I don’t get in] then I certainly won’t begrudge anyone for that.”

Severin, Act’s Corrections and ACC spokesperson, accepted it was a slight blow to drop five places in the rankings but she was nevertheless confident on a return to Parliament.

“I don’t see it as a step back at all, this is just what happens when you have new talent coming,” she said.

“Like everything, we’ve all got egos [and] it took a bit of a hit but, in general, I’m pretty happy.

“I’m pretty certain this time around that I will be back in and [I’m] looking forward to working with my new teammates.”

Severin didn’t believe any of the current MPs would feel resentful and said people of her and Chris’ vintage were no strangers to a bit of adversity.

“Chris and I are both probably of an older group that we’ve had probably tonnes of knock-backs in our lives, but you just pick yourself up and move forward and, you know, you can’t compete when you get high-calibre people coming forward to join the party.”

This shows remarkably good discipline and loyalty within ACT. As I said the list ranking was quite brutal on incumbents, but none of them have had a tantrum. In fact they are saying they understand the need to bring in fresh blood.

Compare that to the Greens where one MP was so distraught she was *only* ranked No 4, she was openly plotting to undermine the No 3 candidate. It was classic ego over party.

Luke Malpass writes:

But after that there were a series of questions which neither Hipkins nor Davis were able to satisfactorily answer.

In fact, by the end of the press conference it wasn’t very clear exactly what the facilities were for, what age young offenders they would cater for and there was no idea about the cost. …

Either way, by the end of the press conference the only thing that was clear was that there would be new secure buildings built in – most likely – Christchurch and Auckland. It was just about the worst press conference performance from Labour ministers in this term of office.

Almost as if this was a policy dreamed up on the back of a napkin, like Kiwibuild!

The Herald reports:

The Wellington City Council has again announced it wants to end homelessness after already trying to do this by 2020 and failing.

It’s hard to imagine the council holds the secret to solving a problem that has become entrenched in our society but here we are, again.

On the face of it, the council’s latest housing action plan reads more like an ideological wish list than a meaningful blueprint.

This is about Councillors wanting to virtue signal.

Te Mahana was launched in 2014 with the goal of eliminating homelessness by 2020. It failed to achieve this ambitious goal with the problem actually getting worse over that time, not better.

This is no surprise.

The council has spent $3.3 million on homelessness through grants and contracts over the past decade.

But council documents show a review is under way into the “effectiveness of those financial contributions to understand the impact of the council’s investment in homelessness prevention and response”.

They spent $3.3 million and the problem is worse. Now they will spend more money on consultants to tell them the spending didn’t work, but no doubt the solution is to spend even more.

NewstalkZB reports:

An Auckland man who caused the death of his partner by dousing her in petrol and lighting their bedroom on fire has been ordered to serve at least 18 years in prison after it was noted he twice before used fire to threaten or control the victim.

Poi Tinei, 51, was already well known to police – having been the subject of 15 family harm callouts in recent years – when officers and firefighters found the body of Teao Ida Wiki, 53, facedown in a bathtub inside Tinei’s Manurewa home soon after the blaze was extinguished last September.

So why was he out and about?

Stuff reports:

The Government will introduce a ram raid bill, to create a new offence and to allow police to prosecute 12-year-old ram raiders.

Under the proposed law, ram raiders could be imprisoned for up to 10 years, Prime Minister Chris Hipkins said. The law change would also mean children who commit ram raids can be charged and tried at the Youth Court.

But the 10-year maximum sentence for ram raiding would not be any different from the existing penalty for burglary, which is also a maximum of 10 years. 

More window dressing.

Astonishing that a Minister of the Crown would take the time to complain to media that two of their columnists are former National Party Ministers. Must be feeling the pressure.

The next inflation data will come out after the election, so it seems timely to now look at the inflation record since the monetary reforms in the late 1980s.

The graph above shows the total inflation increase from June to June (so June 2020 to June 2023 for the latest). The target is for annual inflation of 2% so below 6% is good. Between 6% and 9% over three years is acceptable and over 9% means you are constantly breaching the agreed upon maximum.

The cumulative inflation in the last three years is greater than the total inflation in nine years from 1990- to 1999 and from 208 to 2017. And that includes a GST increase in 2010 which had compensating tax cuts.

Basically we have never had sustained inflation like this, in the last 30 years. An 18% increase over three years is unprecedented, and of course most people have not had wages go up 18%.

And for those who like to blame it on Ukraine, I share this graph from The Facts:

1. Impeding breathing (s189A): 7 years
2. Injuring with intent to injure (s189(2)): 5 years
3. Wilful damage (s269): 7 years
4. Male assaults female (s194): 2 years

Five months home detention really wasn’t adequate was it, even if he was “actively engaged in a non-violence programme”.

Stuff reports:

Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau has been bringing her dog to work, where it is not allowed.

The Post reports Whanau has been breaching the council’s tenancy agreement by bringing her dog, Teddy, to the office.

In an emailed response to The Post, her office confirmed the lease agreement the council had for its offices on The Terrace “does not allow animals on the premises”.

However, it said the council hadn’t received a formal breach notice from the landlord, nor had the landlord asked her to stop bringing the dog in.

Having dogs at work is a great idea. I love seeing photos of dogs at Parliament after Trevor Mallard changed the rules to allow them.

If WCC owned its own building, then the Mayor could bring her dog in, as well as Councillors and staff. That would be great.

But WCC have a legal lease agreement which bans animals from the premises.

The issue here is whether the Mayor is above the rules that apply to everyone else. Other Councillors have been told they can’t bring dogs in. No staff are allowed to bring their dogs in.

The fact the landlord hasn’t complained to the Council is irrelevant. The landlord may not even be aware. The Council has a legal obligation to not breach the lease terms.

The Council could have approached the landlord and asked for a waiver. They did not.

What is unclear is whether the Mayor was aware she was breaching the lease by bringing her dog in. Did no one on staff ever tell her? If so, then the staff are at fault, not her. But if the staff did tell her, and she decided the Mayor gets to ignore legal requirements, then she is at fault.

The Herald reports:

The gunman responsible for this morning’s deadly shootings in Auckland’s CBD was on home detention for domestic violence.

The Herald understands that Matu Tangi Matua Reid was serving a community-based sentence of home detention at the time of the shooting and was subject to electronic monitoring via an ankle bracelet tracker.

Three people are dead, including the gunman, after the incident at a construction site in Auckland’s CBD. Six others have been injured, including police officers.

Reid, 24, had appeared for sentencing in the Auckland District Court earlier this year after admitting charges of impeding breathing, injuring with intent to injure, wilful damage, and male assaults female.

When news broke this morning it seemed surreal. Having someone shoot eight people in public is something I am used to reading about in other countries, not Auckland. My thoughts have been with those affected in Auckland.

All credit to the brave Police officers who eventually stopped him. It is a reminder that their job requires them to out themselves into critical danger, to keep the rest of us safe.

6.0% inflation is I guess better than 7.0% inflation, but the cumulative impact off high inflation is huge.

Overall prices are 17.6% higher than three years ago. This is a greater increase than the 15.0% increase over nine years of the Key/English Government (and that included a GST increase which had compensating tax cuts).

Also note the hike in petrol tax came in on 1 July so won’t be captured in the data just released.

The Herald reports:

Health Minister Ayesha Verrall corrected an answer to Parliament this evening, admitting her office had stopped health data from being released because of the timing of other Government announcements.

Earlier in the day, Verrall had denied this was the case under questioning from National’s Shane Reti.

They don’t learn, do they!

The information they delayed releasing is the fact that only 72% of ED patients get seen within six hours. We have gone from 7% having to wait over six hours to 28% – four times as many. In absolute terms, this means we’ve gone from 20,000 patients waiting over six hours to 80,000.

Reading the Hansard of the debate about Education Minister Jan Tinetti misleading Parliament, it becomes apparent how flimsy her claims are. Key aspects are:

• She thought she didn’t need to correct her statement to the House because so long as she thought the answer was correct when she gave it, she didn’t need to correct the answer even after finding out it was incorrect. Could you imagine trying that in a school exam – I know the answer is wrong, but I believed it was right at the time, so it is right!
• Tinetti claims that between January 2023 and 21 February 2023, when her staff were in regular contact with the Ministry of Education and in contact with the Office of the Prime Minister, including the Deputy Chief of Staff and a senior adviser, she had no knowledge at all of that activity going on
• She knew the Deputy Secretary of Education had told select committee he was really keen to get it out this side of Christmas, and she never ever wondered or inquired why it was not released until 21 February
• That when she twice told media on 21 February term 3 attendance data would be released that same day, she didn’t actually know it would be released that day, but flaked a lucky guess
• Tinetti also claimed that one factor in not correcting her answer was because there were no further questions on the attendance data, but that is because MPs at the time took her at her word that she had not delayed it. So her defence to not correcting a lie, is that as the lie worked, it didn’t need correction!

When you have forgotten that you have been elected by taxpayers …

When you think spending other people’s money is a right not a privilege …

When you don’t have to provide support for assertions (unlike school students would) …

When you have learned your petulance from badly-behaved children …