I’ve been following the Dickason trial where she is charged with murdering her three daughters. I don’t want to comment on the specifics of this case, as it is before a jury but I wanted to share my reaction to when the news of their deaths was first reported.

When I heard they had been killed by their mother, my instinctive reaction was to almost feel sorry for her, and just conclude she must be mad, not bad. I was thinking “Oh the poor woman, she’ll have to live with this for the rest of her life”.

But I know that if I read about a father killing his three children, my instinctive reaction would be a deep deep despising of the man, and I would be concluding he is evil. I would want him strapped to Ixion’s flaming wheel as punishment.

Now sadly it is more common for a father to kill his children as some sort of revenge against an estranged partner, so that may be a logical factor as to why I instinctively react that way. But it is still strange that I have such deeply different instinctive responses to a parent who kills their child, based on the gender of the parent.

The latest One News poll has Chris Hipkins down 2% to 24% Preferred PM and Chris Luxon up 1% to 20%.

Here is how the PM and Opposition Leaders have fared in Preferred PM ratings in the One News poll in July of election year.

Opposition Leaders

1. 2008 John Key 38%
2. 1984 David Lange 28%
3. 1999 Helen Clark 22%
4. 2023 Chris Luxon 20%
5. 2005 Don Brash 20%
6. 2020 Judith Collins 20%
7. 2002 Bill English 17%
8. 1987 Jim Bolger 14%
9. 1993 Mike Moore 14%
10. 1990 Jim Bolger 12%
11. 2011 Phil Goff 9%
12. 2014 David Cunliffe 8%
13. 2017 Andrew Little 6%
14. 1996 Helen Clark 7%

So Chris Luxon’s rating is just 2% off what Helen Clark had in 1999 and his score of 20% is the 4th= highest of 14 Opposition Leaders in a July of election year.

And how about PMs:

1. 2011 John Key 54%
2. 2020 Jacinda Ardern 54%
3. 2002 Helen Clark 50%
4. 2014 John Key 48%
5. 2005 Helen Clark 40%
6. 1987 David Lange 35%
7. 2008 Helen Clark 31%
8. 2017 Bill English 28%
9. 1996 Jim Bolger 27%
10. 1999 Jenny Shipley 25%
11. 1984 Robert Muldoon 24%
12. 2023 Chris Hipkins 22%
13. 1990 Geoffrey Palmer 15%
14. 1993 Jim Bolger 10% 

So in July of election year Christopher Luxon is the 4th= highest polling opposition leader and Chris Hipkins is the now the 3rd lowest polling Prime Minister.

The Australian reports:

The referendum for an Indigenous voice to parliament has suffered a collapse in support among women voters and in the regions as the referendum heads toward defeat, with just 41 per cent of voters now saying they will vote yes.

For the first time, women are now more likely than men to vote no, a central change to core support based on gender.

The No vote in the regions has also blown out to 62 per cent, confirming a widening demographic split between city and bush.

Newspoll have been doing regular polling on the referendum and the trend is stark.

• Feb: +19%
• Mar: +15%
• Apr: +14%
• May: +3%
• Jun: -4%
• Jul: -7%

If it were not for New Zealand, I believe the referendum would pass easily. On the face of it, the question appears laudable and benign:

To alter the Constitution to recognise the First Peoples of Australia by establishing an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Voice

Who could be against a voice for indigenous Australians?

But many Australians will have seen what is happening in New Zealand. In 1998, one regional council was given permission to have a Maori ward. Today in 2023, a Government advisory board has recommended that every local authority must have unelected Councillors appointed by Iwi and Hapu. One already does, and the Government tried to undermine equality of suffrage in Rotorua.

It is not unreasonable for Australians to suspect the Voice would eventually end up with powers where the Government must act on their advice unless say a majority in both Houses of Parliament votes to over-ride it. Not immediately but we’ve seen in NZ how fast the pace of change can be.

Incidentally there are a greater proportion of Australian MPs who are indigenous than there are in the population. 11 out of 227 MPs are indigenous or 4.8%, compared to 3.2% of the population.

In an ideal world, a party shouldn’t need to have a policy to get potholes fixed, but as Labour diverts so much transport funding to cycleways and light rail fantasies, it has become necessary.

National has announced the following:

• halve the pothole response rate from two days to 24 hours
• $500 million boost over three years for state highway and local road repairs.
• transfer funding from the road to zero propaganda campaign and the lowering speed limits campaign
• a requirement for NZTA to undertake renewal and rehabilitation work on at least 2% of the roading network each year, more than double the current rate

Just having a Government that doesn’t hate motorists will be a good start.

Stuff reports:

Labour leader Chris Hipkins has announced Labour’s 2023 election slogan is ‘In it for you’.

My first response was that the slogan sounds like something an amorous (yes that word is probably redundant) 18 year old boy says.

It is probably the best slogan for Labour. They can’t have one that mentions success, delivery, improvement etc. All they can really do is go for empathy, and have a slogan that is basically “We’re trying”.

He promised a “positive, forward-looking campaign that’s focused on cutting inflation, bringing down the cost of living, keeping people and communities safe and investing in education, health and housing”.

Let’s take these in turn:

1. Food inflation is at a 40 year high and overall inflation has been above the 3% target set in law for the last eight quarters
2. Violent offending is up 42% since 2017
3. There are 64,000 more students not attending school regularly, than in 2017
4. The proportion of ED patients not seen within six hours has tripled from 7% to over 21%
5. The Priority A waiting list for social housing has increased 449% since Sep 2017

I look forward to Labour campaigning on these magnificent achievements.

Act have released their 2023 list. The top 20 are:

1. David Seymour – Epsom (nc)
2. Brooke van Velden – Tāmaki (nc)
3. Nicole McKee – Rongotai (nc)
4. Todd Stephenson – Southland (new)
5. Andrew Hoggard – Rangitikei (new)
6. Karen Chhour – Upper Harbour (+1)
7. Mark Cameron – Northland (+1)
8. Simon Court – Te Atatū (-3)
9. Parmjeet Parmar – Pakuranga (new)
10. Laura Trask – Banks Peninsula (new)
11. Cameron Luxton – Bay of Plenty (+4)
12. Antonia Modkova – Panmure-Ōtāhuhu (new)
13. Ash Parmar – Hamilton East (new)
14. Toni Severin – Christchurch East (-5)
15. Ben Harvey – Selwyn (new)
16. Rob Douglas – Tukituki (new)
17. Chris Baillie – Nelson (-13)
18. Christine Young – Tauranga (new)
19. Zane Cozens – Taupō (new)
20. Leo Foley – Northcote (new)

This is quite a brutal list ranking for incumbents. Two MPs were not ranked highly enough to accept the list places offered. Two others were demoted to outside the top 10, where they may get back in, but are not guaranteed.

But that is not all. Normally you would see people who just missed out last time, get potentially winnable places. But of those ranked No 11 – 20 in 2020, just one (Cameron Luxton) has been given a top 20 ranking.

If they get the same seats as last time, four MPs will be candidates who didn’t stand in 2020. And if they get 20 MPs, 11 of them will be new ACT candidates.

They have obviously prioritised the party’s greater needs, over loyalty. All parties have that balancing act to a degree, but rarely have I seen it this stark.

ACT don’t do quotas (rightfully) but they have taken care to have a diverse list. It is relatively youthful. In their top 18, there are eight women and 10 men. By ethnicity there appears to be three Maori NZers, two Indian NZers, one Chinese NZer and 12 European NZers.

If there is a change of Government, and they do a coalition with National, then the top five or six MPs would have a reasonable chance of being Ministers. The four existing MPs have struck me as very capable and the two newcomers of Hoggard and Stephenson are the same. Hoggard is a former Federated Farmers President and I know Todd Stephenson from when we worked in Parliament together.

So overall it looks like a pretty strong team for a future centre-right Government.

Stuff reports:

In a statement released by Hipkins on Friday afternoon, he said “Kiri has had a rough time lately”.

Also in the statement, Allan apologised to “anyone who has found my behaviour towards them unacceptable”. 

“I will also offer that apology personally to anyone who wants to talk to me individually.”

“I want to create a working environment where we set high expectations and work hard to achieve them. But I’ll be working extra hard to make sure those around me know and see how much I appreciate them and value the work they do.”

Allan would receive “extra coaching… to create the positive working environment both of us are committed to”, Hipkins said.

This is the response they should have had three weeks ago. An acknowledgement that things were not right, and some contrition.

Instead they made what was a small issue into a big issue by denying there was a problem. They kept hiding behind the red herring of their being no formal complaints and outright denied there had been any shouting.

NewstalkZB reports:

Questions are being raised over Te Whatu Ora’s honesty regarding health targets. 

Te Whatu Ora says they’re treating 90 percent of cancer patients on time in the southern district, but letters sent out warn of delays.

These letters claim the patients should expect to wait 12 weeks for their first appointment, 8 weeks over the national target.

Cancer care advocate Melissa Vining says DHB management has confirmed Te Whatu Ora is only treating 70 percent of these patients on time. 

Again this is very concerning. Accurate data is one of the most basic functions of Government.

If this keeps up, maybe we will need to have a more independent agency such as Stats NZ publish health data.

Kate Hawkesbury writes:

Another MP facing conflict of interest questions (looking at you Peeni Henare), another MP in meltdown and on leave, another Dairy owner attacked, the (entirely predictable) revelation that government debt was way higher than forecast, the disturbing news of half a billion dollars on almost expired RAT tests being stored in a warehouse exemplifying the very worst of this government’s wastage of our money, more youths on roofs being handed KFC for their troubles, and some more gaslighting by Ministers regards how we’re all feeling.

And that’s pretty much just the last fortnight!

But when asked if the Government’s soft on crime, Police Minster Ginny Andersen said she ‘refuted it’ (straight from the Jacinda playbook). But she can refute it all she wants, she can deny they’re soft on crime, she can claim it’s not a failure of her government, but the facts and the numbers speak for themselves. The evidence daily in our communities speaks for itself. We know how we feel (not safer), we know what’s going on at our local dairies, (increased and more violent crime) we know what’s happening at Police level (fewer arrests, fewer charges) and we know how it all ends up in our justice system (a cultural background report, a slap on the wrist with a wet bus ticket and at best an ankle bracelet).

We just saw a 12 month home detention sentence for assisting in a murder.

I really hope that when this government is finally relieved of its shambolic approach to running our country in October, that they take some time to reflect on what they’ve done here. Leaving behind eye watering levels of debt, a warehouse full of millions of dollars worth of expiring RAT tests, a country divided, record levels of crime and truancy, a health system in tatters… it’s not pretty. For a government that promised to be transformational, honest, open and transparent, they’ve been nothing but a bumbling circus act of failures and waste. I for one, won’t miss them.

I’ve been following politics since 1975, when I was eight. I can’t recall any other Government that would even come close in terms of sheer incompetence. Even if you go back further than 1975, it is hard to find a comparable Government – maybe the Waterhouse Ministry comes close.

Luke Malpass at The Post writes:

The political project begun under Ardern to permanently boost the size of the state to provide more and better public services and to embed a highly progressive taxation system to fund it is dead for the time-being. 

Labour’s aim absolutely has been to permanently boost the size of the state, and they have managed that. But rather than produce better public services, almost every public service has deteriorated.

I was talking to a very good teacher today and he mentioned just how often he hears teachers complain about students they work with (yes probably unionists) – their behaviour, morals, concentration levels … then they give it the “back in my day …”.

Well, I remember “back in my day” and the best description is that my cohort were “brats.”

Around 400BC Socrates wrote:

“The children now love luxury; they have bad manners, contempt for authority; they show disrespect for elders and love chatter in place of exercise. Children are now tyrants, not the servants of their households. They no longer rise when elders enter the room. They contradict their parents, chatter before company, gobble up dainties at the table, cross their legs, and tyrannize their teachers.”

It is a common theme of humanity that current generations think they are the peak, have earned it, and that the next have no gratitude and will take the whole ship down.

Children are the same as they have always been. The formula for them to grow into wonderful adults is also the same:

– Unconditional love. When I behaved badly as a child my mother would be telling me off and I would plead – “you don’t love me” her reply was always – “I don’t like you much at the moment but I do love you.” My best teachers were those whose care and belief in me was unwavering.

– Inspiration and a sense of purpose. Children need to know that they are on the planet and a part of the human story for a reason. They need to know about people who are doing remarkable things – including artists, entrepreneurs, change agents for good (past and present), people who work with the poor, doctors & scientists.

– They need to know the great books and reading as an irreplaceable good. I am currently re-reading (maybe the 6th time) – Hitchhikers Guide to the Galaxy by Douglas Adams (and through Gary Larson’s – The Complete Far Side. Every sentence, paragraph, page, chapter, book (it is a trilogy in five parts) is a delight. Also worth noting – there never was a bigger gap between a great book as a crap movie than this example. As a teacher of economics, business, math, science … I always read at the start of my class. I never met a child who is not delighted by these stories – even more when they read them for themselves.

Never be put off by a child who says they don’t like reading or a parent who says their son/daughter is “not a reader”. Humans are hard-wired for stories a good teacher/parent gets through the barriers.

Below are the books I read to my children and classes. My children are now wonderful, contributing adults. Looking back I would not change out any of these books.

The Lord of the Rings                                           J. R. R. Tolkien
The Magician’s Nephew                                      C. S. Lewis
The Back of the North Wind                                George MacDonald
….

For the full list go to: alwynpoole.substack.com/p/children-and-young-people-are-as

or email [email protected]

The Herald reports on how the courts are performing five years into this Government:

• Coronial case resolution gone from 49 weeks to 71
• Those waiting more than five years for Coroners Court gone from 15 families to 234
• Those waiting more than three years for Family Court has tripled to 1,165
• Average days to resolve criminal cases in District Court gone from 114 days to 176 days

Another great success!

The Herald reports:

The Government spent $1 million on a campaign thought to have been aimed at boosting school attendance, which it now says was not designed to increase attendance rates.

Rather than spending $1 million on boosting attendance rates, they’re spending $1 million to make us think they are increasing attendance rates!

Stuff reports:

Food price increases are still “worryingly high”, with prices increasing 12.5% annually from June 2022 to June 2023.

Compared to the month of May, food prices increased by 1.6% in June 2023. After adjusting for seasonal effects, they were up 0.9%.

Monthly food inflation used to be around 0.2%. Overall inflation may be dropping but food prices are still increasing as a rate well beyond income.

Stuff reports:

A serial bank robber has gone to jail for his 11th robbery, after targeting a currency exchange in central Wellington.

Why do we keep letting him out? `

The robbery shut down part of Wellington’s busy Lambton Quay on February 8 this year after Steven Kurt Peri​ had demanded money, ending up with about $25,000 in foreign currency, a large amount of it Australian. …

Peri, 43, had gone into the store about 9.17am, pulled a pistol from his waistband and pointed it at the first teller demanding money. She hurried away out the back, so Peri pointed it at a second teller and racked the slide on the pistol.

Peri was previously sentenced in the High Court in Auckland in 2015 to four years and 11 months jail for the aggravated robbery of the Henderson BNZ. The judge then declined to give him preventive detention saying that intensive supervision could help him rehabilitate.

The Judge was wrong.

That 2015 robbery was a second strike offence. If Labour and Greens had not repealed the Three Strikes law, he would have got 14 years for his 11th aggravated robbery, instead of the four and a half years he did get. Thanks to the Government, he will be able to do a 12th aggravated robbery by 2025, rather than 2037.

One News reports:

The health agency published a review of their clinical performance metrics this morning, revealing that compared to 2022, in 11 districts, there was a minimum 10% increase in their emergency department length of stay.

A minimum 10% could mean one district was 10% and 10 others had a 40% increase.

Before Labour’s health reforms we knew exactly how many ED patients were seen within six hours, updated every three months. Now we have no data since June 2022.

One of the most basic functions of Government is to produce reliable and accurate information and data. We’re spending $26 billion on the health system, and we can’t even find out how long people are waiting for in emergency departments.

We have now found out that Labour looked at:

• An asset tax
• A capital gains tax
• A bank tax

They have backed down on them not because they don;’t want to do them, but because they don’t want to go into an election campaigning on them.

But they have an escape route. The Greens have all but said such taxes will be a condition of any coalition agreement.

Can anyone imagine that a Labour/Green/Māori Party Government would reduce the tax burden on the economy, rather than increase it?

Bruce Cotterill writes:

Some of the misleading lines are now famous. Remember “we’re at the front of the queue for vaccines”? We weren’t. Or that “he was advised on six occasions to sell his shares”? Turns out it there were 16 messages about the shares. Notwithstanding the mystery text message, the current one goes, “there have never been any formal allegations put to me”.

All good examples.

The former PM had the audacity to refer to her Government as the “single source of the truth” during the pandemic. It wasn’t. Her Government was also assembling a document named He Puapua, the existence of which was kept from their then coalition partner, and also from the voting public. Its existence and content only became apparent after the election was safely in the bag.

My bet is that the same thing is happening again. Once high-profile ministers have been sent to the back room, where I expect they’re working on the next raid on our values and our wallets. Their work will only become visible if another election victory is delivered.

Yep, everything on hold, will come off hold, and be rammed into law as quickly as possible.

The Herald reports:

A teen prospect involved in a gang-related murder assured the court he was cutting ties with the Mongrel Mob, but after his calls to a jailed gang boss were intercepted, it was discovered he has instead been patched, complete with the gang’s insignia tattooed on his back.

This is no surprise. They all get told to tell the court how they are remorseful and want to turn their lives around, but most of them don’t want to.

He is the younger brother of Mongrel Mob West Coast chapter president Turanganui Ormsby-Turner, who was jailed in May for life with a minimum period of imprisonment of 10 years and six months for murdering Rei Joseph Tumatauinga Maihi Marshall.

Tana was originally also charged with the murder of Marshall, a 23-year-old Taranaki father of two, but went on to plead guilty to reduced charges of being an accessory after the fact and wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm.

So he did a plea deal to avoid being charged with murder, but still admitted to two very serious offences that have maximum terms of 14 and seven years.

From a starting point of seven years’ imprisonment, Justice Francis Cooke applied around 70 per cent in discounts before sentencing the teen to 12 months of home detention.

If National becomes Government, this would not happen. They have said 40% will be the maximum discount available which would mean a sentence of at least four years imprisonment for helping murder someone, instead of 12 months cruising at home.

He believed Tana still had a chance of being rehabilitated but said that could not be achieved in prison.

LOL. Sure.