The referendum to enshrine an Indigenous voice to parliament and executive government would fail if a vote were held next weekend, with more voters for the first time opposed to altering the Constitution to achieve it and a majority of states lined up to deliver a “No” vote.
The margin (yes over no) in each state is:
Victoria +7%
NSW +5%
South Australia -1%
Australia -4%
Tasmania -5%
Western Australia -13%
Queensland -14%
It is within the margin of error, but the trend is bad for the yes vote.
The usual suspects portray anyone who opposes having ethnic weightings for surgical weight lists as a right wing racist. Bearing that in mind, they may find this article by Professor Peter Davis of interest:
I was an elected member of the Auckland District Health Board when, shortly after the board convened in early 2020, our Chair, Pat Snedden, challenged us about the issue of ethnic inequalities in health outcomes and access to health care. What could we, as a major DHB, do about this? We debated this long and hard and eventually, perhaps as an interim measure, this resulted in some patients being bumped up the waiting list. Far more useful and defensible in my view was the introduction of “navigators” to help Māori and Pacific patients through a complex system faced by many professional and personal barriers.
No one would object to resourcing support for people to access the health system. That is very different to having an ethnic weighting which would see David Seymour moved ahead of Chris Hipkins on a surgical waiting list because Seymour is Maori and Hipkins is not.
Davis explains his objections:
The data did not seem to support the need. For example, I worked out from 17 service directorate waiting lists that, except for one or two directorates, Māori and Pacific patients had waiting times somewhere between 20% below and 20% above other patients.
You don’t want to mess with objective clinical criteria. This has been a hard-won system from the 1990s designed to remove subjectivity and arbitrariness from waitlist decisions.
If you wanted to pick up on disadvantage, more inclusive than ethnicity would be socio-economic position – such place of residence – as a bit of a broader catchall.
The danger that, if taken the wrong way, this initiative might be taken as a signal to other groups that the public system is not for them and they start to migrate wholesale to the private sector.
The Government’s decision to fly a spare Defence Force plane to China in case the Boeing 757 carrying Prime Minister Chris Hipkins breaks down will be costing $150,000 in fuel alone, the ACT Party leader David Seymour says.
How Mickey Mouse is this. Rather than have one reliable plane, they fly two planes to China in case one breaks down.
Seymour said the extra plane is an “extravagance” which created the emissions equal to driving a Ford Ranger to the moon three times.
So it is bad fiscally and bad environmentally.
“Some people might bring a spare phone charger with them while travelling overseas in case they lose one, or it breaks. Chris Hipkins needs to bring a spare Boeing aircraft with him. This extravagance is typical of Labour’s wasteful attitude and reckless disregard for Kiwis’ money.
I’m all for PMs being able to travel in a dedicated aircraft. But never before can I recall a PM taking a second plane along as a backup.
In just five years, violent crime has increased by 33 per cent, gangs are growing faster than police, and retail crime has doubled. One contributor to this spike in criminal activity is the weak consequences faced by offenders.
That is the rate of violent crime up 33%. The gross number of violent offences has increased 42% since 2017 to 2022. And 2023 is looking to be even worse, with violent offending to date up 9% on last year.
National will introduce stronger sentences for convicted criminals, by limiting the ability of judges to reduce sentences, making gang membership an aggravating factor, restoring Three Strikes and ending taxpayer funding for cultural reports.
The big change here is to pass a law limiting the ability of Judges to discount a sentence to a maximum of 40%.
A “use-it-and-lose-it” rule that prevents repeat offenders from receiving sentence discounts for youth or remorse more than once.
Also a good idea. You only get to play the remorse card once!
A 60 per cent sentence reduction was given to a 19-year-old male on appeal that reduced a prison sentence to three years and five months, from a starting point of eight years and six months imprisonment. The offender, carrying a knife, and accompanied by two other males (one wearing Mongrel Mob regalia), kicked down the front door of a pregnant woman alone at home and assaulted her. He then went on to attack another victim, holding a knife to their throat, and kidnapped them. He was guilty of aggravated burglary, indecent assault, demanding with intent to steal, aggravated robbery, kidnapping, injuring with intent to injure and possession of an offensive weapon.
Personally I think a 40% maximum is still very generous.
Some Judges have effectively declared war on Parliament using judicial activism to nullify the former Three Strikes law. If Judges abuse the discretion they have under the law, they should not be surprised when they end up with less discretion.
A fascinating paper from MOTU and VUW where they use global datasets to try and establish who places the most priority on free speech, and who benefits the most from it. Their conclusions:
Our results indicate that, within countries, individuals with lower income and lower education levels benefit most from free speech. These results support the hypothesis (HA2) that free speech has an empowerment effect for those with fewer resources in society. However, when asked to prioritize free speech amongst a number of options, we see the reverse result: people with greater resources are more likely to prioritize free speech highly (consistent with hypothesis HA1).
These two results are not necessarily incompatible. People with fewer resources may need to prioritize basic needs more than “luxuries” such as free speech; for instance, one of the options presented to respondents when undertaking their prioritization is “fighting rising prices” which is likely to be more important for those on low incomes. Thus, consistent with Maslow’s hierarchy, free speech acts as a luxury good when individuals are asked to rank it alongside other factors that may affect their wellbeing. Just because poorer people prioritize more immediate needs does not, however, mean that they benefit less from free speech. Free speech offers the poor and the marginalized a greater opportunity to voice their concerns publicly and to influence decisions. Thus, while it is not their top priority when making ends meet, they may still gain greater benefit than do more prosperous groups from having free speech.
Worth remembering that when some people go on about free speech being over-rated etc.
This graph from Lindsay Mitchell shows the average income from the taxpayer for various types of families on welfare. Most data only focused on core benefits but this takes everything into account and shows on average taxpayer support of around $1,000 a week for a sole parent with 2+ children.
The chief of the Wagner private military group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, on Friday accused Russian military leadership of striking a Wagner military camp and killing a “huge amount” of his mercenary forces.
Prigozhin claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense tricked Wagner and he vowed to “respond to these atrocities.” …
“Many dozens, tens of thousands of lives, of Russian soldiers will be punished,” Prigozhin said. “I ask that nobody put up any resistance. Those who show such resistance, we will consider it a threat and destroy them immediately. This includes any roadblocks standing in our way, any aircraft seen over our heads.” …
There are unconfirmed reports that Prigozhin is advancing and Russian troops are not stopping him.
I won’t even pretend to know enough to speculate on how this all ends, but it is staggering to have even started.
So you can understand my shock when I read last week that learned members of the Independent Electoral Review Panel have decided to recommend that migrants be stripped of their right to vote. Journalists haven’t focused on this part of the recommendations. If Kiwis remain unaware of this implication, we will permit a covert raid on the rights of many in our community.
The panel recommended “extending the time that permanent residents must spend in Aotearoa New Zealand before gaining the right to vote to one electoral cycle”.In essence, this means that permanent residents will be required to wait three to four years before they are permitted to vote.
In my view the panel doesn’t go far enough. New Zealand is almost unique in the developed world in giving the same electoral voting rights to residents as citizens.
I believe we should follow Australia, and restrict the right to vote to citizens. Not to have fewer people voting, but to encourage people who have permanent residency, to become citizens. Shared citizenship is important for a country. It is when a country becomes your home, not just the place you live.
Any change should of course not be retrospective. Once someone is qualified to vote, they should keep it if their circumstances don’t change. So all existing migrants should be grandfathered onto the electoral roll. But we should tell future migrants (and I want more migrants, not less) that we’re glad you’re here, but we want you to become a citizen.
Firstly they find the average profit margin was 14.7% in 2019 and 12.7% in 2022, so has actually decreased.
The only industries that have had their profit margin increase was mining and transport.
Most usefully they calculated that of the 14% increase in prices from 2019 to 2022, the major factor was an increase in input costs, being 71% of the increase. An increase in labour costs was 15% of the increase and an increase in gross profits just 14%.
he Covid-19 “patient zero” was a Wuhan scientist carrying out experiments on souped-up coronaviruses, a new report has sensationally claimed.
According to the report, the scientist, Ben Hu, was conducting risky tests at the Wuhan Institute of Virology with two colleagues, Ping Yu and Yan Zhu.
It’s understood all three fell ill with Covid-like symptoms and needed hospital care weeks before Chinadisclosed the virus outbreak to the world.
They had never been named until now, The Sun reports.
It wasn’t that long ago that suggesting the virus was a lab leak could get you suspended from social media for spreading misinformation. This is why we should be very wary of those who use such labels to suppress debate.
Too many Māori MPs has created a parallel universe of tangata whenua tokenism and anti-growth, woke-ish programmes.
They should be leading a new covenant for their community. One denouncing gangs and stressing duty rather than rehashing indigenous rights and devaluing the ethic of service.
Sadly the legacy of the Te Pāti Māori, Greens and Labour is co-governance and the diffusion of te reo names such Te Whatu Ora, the health agency. The name of a thing does not matter as much as the quality of a thing. Tossing about Māori nomenclature does not lead to superior health outcomes. …
Prison life does not guarantee rehabilitation, it does however spare the community from further intimidation and violence.
The brazen display of Mongrel Mob colours and coercion in Ōpōtiki shows how far our standards have sunk. It is offensive that these yelping pups think they have a right to destroy our national qualities of industry; blood, sweat and tears. Their code is death and destruction and it was odious to see misguided locals trying to rationalise their standover tactics due to a tangi.
Now when her husband and children wake, she prepares them a breakfast of corn. Gone are the days they could eat plain rice.
The markets, where most North Koreans buy their food, are now almost empty, he says, and the price of rice, corn and seasonings has soared.
The first family in his village to succumb to starvation was a mother and her children. She had become too sick to work. Her children kept her alive for as long as they could by begging for food, but in the end all three died.
She is haunted by the week she was forced to eat puljuk – a mash of vegetables, plants and grass, ground into a porridge-like paste.
His friend’s son recently witnessed several executions carried out by the state. In each instance three to four people were killed. Their crime was trying to escape.
Weirdly media never refer to Marxism as a far left ideology!
Stuart Nash, Meka Whaitiri, Michael Wood and Jan Tinetti are all names that have haunted Chris Hipkins’ thinking far too often in the short five months he’s been Prime Minister. …
Hipkins started his tenure in February leading a national emergency disaster, but ever since he’s been riding out a storm brought upon him by his own team, dealing with one ministerial disaster after another.
The group of people around him who he can actually trust diminishes each week, and questions are rightly being asked as to whether his ministers simply don’t respect the office of the prime minister.
Nash and Wood both lied to Hipkins – hamstringing his ability to act fast given he chose to believe them – and Whaitiri waited until he’d left the country to announce her defection to Te Pāti Māori.
Can’t imagine it happening to Helen Clark!
And in his statement following his resignation Wood still hadn’t quite clocked on to the fact that he was solely responsible for the mess he had found himself in, saying “in some respects my de-prioritisation of my personal financial affairs has led to this situation”.
There’s no “some” about it, Wood’s inability to sort out his conflicting shares is completely to blame.
It’s no longer fathomable that Wood is a victim of his own forgetfulness, not even Hipkins believes that anymore.
If Wood had just been a beneficiary of the shares he may well have forgotten, but he was an active trustee and Hipkins told media it just isn’t plausible anymore that he didn’t realise the conflict and manage it.
A trustee is actually required by law to know on and report on what is in the trust.
Hipkins will be dreading getting on a plane to China at the weekend for a week-long trade mission while his scandal-prone caucus stays behind.
If he can’t nip the screw-ups in the bud, even the smaller-scale ones like Tinetti facing the Privileges Committee, he doesn’t have a hope of going on the campaign trail with a straight face and claiming he has a competent team to run the country for the next three years.
The UK Privileges Committee recommended Boris Johnson get a 90 day suspension (leading to his resignation) for misleading the British House of Commons. Will Tinetti get anything for misleading the NZ House of Representatives?
The Ministers in trouble in NZ are not lowly ranked ones. Tinetti is No 6 and Wood was 7 so both front benchers. Kiri Allan is No 10 and Nash was No 11.
(NB: A hard choice on a topic today. I was going to write again on how the PPTA continue to trample on children and families through “rostering home” two year groups a day. I was going to talk about how they are bringing the whole sector into further disrepute and shooting themselves in every body-part by driving high aspiration young people aware from a career in teaching (or driving teachers overseas) I was going to say that teachers need an oath, equivalent to the Hippocratic Oath for doctors, to “first do no harm”. But I have decided to talk about something else.”)
On Monday the NZ Herald carried this opinion piece:
We don’t have enough of the right specialist teachers and the programmes continue to be diluted. The tinkering at NCEA level 1 is a case in point.
Our long-term decline in the international PISA tests should have been a big wake-up call that all is not well.”
This graph backs up his assertion:
Dr Rogers can speak with authority as not only is he exceptionally well qualified but he is also the HOD Chemistry at one of New Zealand’s very best performing schools: St Peter’s College in Epsom.
He notes: “The reality is that science is not well supported by the Ministry of Education (MoE) regardless of the rhetoric we hear. Notably, only one of the MoE senior leadership team has ever taught in a school (primary).
Of concern is that only a very small proportion of MoE employees (I estimate fewer than 1 per cent) has a science degree, and I couldn’t find anyone who had taught chemistry or physics. No doubt my statistics are wrong, but you get the picture. Sciences don’t register as important on the MoE radar.”
I wish Andrew was wrong but he isn’t. Science education is in deep trouble in NZ. Very few primary teachers have a background in Science subjects let alone the competence to teach it well. The subject is being significantly diminished in the “curriculum refresh” and the collective contract prevents incentivising this area where the shortages are already crippling.
The Ministry of Education is incompetent, disconnected from school level reality, captured by idealogues of all manner – and clearly completely disinterested in academic rigour in Science and Math. A new government needs to completely restructure/repurpose the Ministry, completely sweep out the current leadership and bring in 10 of NZ’s most outstanding Principals to lead the organisation
The Sciences are not only important for career opportunities, important for the economy, but also deeply interesting and invigorating when well taught. Young people who love science have also got more resources at their finger-tips than ever before. Parents are beginning to challenge schools and the Ministry in a range of areas. This is another one to be VERY vocal about.
Much can happen in the home too. For parents and grandparents out there two of the best books to buy for 10 year olds through to adults are:
A Short History of Nearly Everything by Bill Bryson (fully illustrated version – not the kids version)
The Body by Bill Bryson (also illustrated)
Anyone reading them will fall in love with Science and also probably realise they learn more away from PPTA control-ville and that many of the best teachers of science subjects around the world can be accessed.
