The battle for Wellington

Georgina Campbell writes:

National’s deputy leader Nicola Willis has been confirmed as the party’s candidate for Ōhāriu. She has previously run in Wellington Central, which is a safe Labour seat held by Finance Minister Grant Robertson. …

Hudson then had to campaign on two ticks blue at the last minute and lost to O’Connor by 1051 votes. The margin between the two was increased to almost 12,000 in the red wave that was the 2020 election.

I think Nicola is fantastic, but I would caution over expectations that she can easily win Ohariu. A 12,000 majority is massive, and I can’t recall a majority that large ever being flipped in one election.

Some people think Ohariu is a blue seat because Peter Dunne held it for so long, but the reality is National last held it in 1981, around the time Nicola was born. It is slightly less red than some of its neighbours, but here are some facts about it:

  • Had slightly lower party vote for National than Te Atatu and Mt Roskill
  • Candidate vote in 2020 was below Palmerston North
  • It is the 19th safest seat for Labour with a 11,961 majority – more than Te Atatu
  • It is Labour’s 30th best seat in terms of party vote and 24th highest for candidate vote
  • It is also a strong Greens seat – 7th highest at 14%
  • In 2020 the left parties got 35% more vote than the right parties – better than Wigram, Taieri

Willis is already out and about in the electorate attending the Rotary Khandallah Fair over the weekend and holding a public meeting in Johnsonville with National Party leader Christopher Luxon last Thursday.

A win is no slam dunk for Willis, but it’s not impossible either.

It as far from a slam dunk as you can get. It is not impossible, but it would be almost unprecedented. If anyone can do it, Nicola can – but no one should think it is even close to likely.

General Debate 16 December 2022

Seymour and Ardern unite to help pricks

The Herald reports:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Act leader David Seymour are putting aside their bruising week in which Ardern was caught calling Seymour an “arrogant prick” in Parliament.

The pair will sign a copy of the Hansard page that includes the remarks and auction it for a prostate cancer charity.

“In the spirit of Christmas, we are going to raise money for the Prostate Cancer Foundation – raising money for pricks everywhere,” he said.

Great line, and a great idea. I like that in NZ you can have this happen.

UPDATE: Over $50,000 raised so far with the leading bid being $50,100

DeSantis on the rise

An interesting USA TODAY/Suffolk University Poll:

Republicans:

  • 56% DeSantis
  • 33% Trump
  • 45% of Republicans don’t want Trump to run
  • Net favourability for Trump has dropped from +58% to +41%

All voters:

  • Biden beats Trump 47% to 40%
  • DeSantis beats Biden 47% to 43%

Seems an easy choice!

Luxon the Statesman

Thomas March writes at Stuff:

The war in Ukraine entered New Zealand Parliament’s debating chamber on Wednesday in the most direct manner yet: President Volodymyr Zelenskyy beaming in to share a message from Kyiv.

It was a moment that called for a meaningful response. But the leader that rose to the occasion wasn’t Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who was ready to offer a further $3 million in humanitarian support for energy-stricken Ukraine as it heads into winter. And it wasn’t ACT David Seymour and his unashamed politicking.

It was the Opposition leader, Christopher Luxon.

What was it that Luxon said:

“This conflict is described as a war between Ukraine and Russia, but it is far bigger than that. It is a moral as well as a physical battle. It is, frankly, an existential threat to Ukraine, a war that Ukraine cannot and will not lose,” Luxon said, in a speech in response to Zelenskyy.

Luxon, who described Zelenskyy as “our generation’s Winston Churchill”, did not himself offer Churchill-style oratory. But he did speak to the war with moral clarity, calling it a conflict between “brutality or diplomacy, autocracy or democracy” and a terrible loss of life.

Spot on. It is a battle between autocracy and democracy. Russia seeks to not just beat Ukraine, but to wipe out Ukraine as a sovereign state.

“None of us, especially a small country like New Zealand, wants to believe that might is right … But this war has proved that when you have to fight for what you believe in, you need an army, weapons, ammunition, and friends to help defend your interests. 

“This war has again highlighted the shortcomings of the United Nations, whose purpose is noble, but whose impact is weak. This international group could not prevent one authoritarian power launching a war on its neighbour.”

The only thing keeping Ukraine alive is weapons.

NZ needs to reflect on the lessons from Ukraine, and we need to start investing more in our armed forces.

General Debate 15 December 2022

Government remains committed to the largest tax hike in history

The Herald reports:

Finance Minister Grant Robertson says the Government remains committed to implementing an income insurance scheme by mid-2025.

Meanwhile, Minister for Social Development and Employment Carmel Sepuloni says the scheme is “very high” on her priority list.

Their assurances come as Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has instructed ministers to relook at their priorities for 2023.

The Government is coming up against the same cost and capacity pressures hamstringing the private sector, as it tries to complete a range of reforms and commitments before next year’s election.

Establishing a $3.5 billion a year income insurance scheme by the 2024/25 fiscal year is one of its more significant undertakings.

This will be the largest tax hike in modern history, and hence the largest drop in take home pay for a generation.

Take home pay will shrink by up to $35 a week for a single person and up to $70 a week for a couple, so that someone made unemployed gets to not look for a new job for six months.

Inflation is at a 30 year high, interest rates are shooting up to 8%, and Labour wants to whack up to $70 a week out of family incomes.

The only way to stop them, will be to change the Government.

Bolger and Graham warn on co-governance

Jim Bolger and Doug Graham have a proud history of having effectively started the settling of the historical grievances. They are most definitely on the liberal side of National when it comes to issues around the Treaty.

So it should be a warning shot to Labour about how far from the mean they are pushing a radical policy position, when Bolger and Graham speak out to warn against it.

The Herald reports:

“What I would like from the Government is some clarity about the endpoint,” said Bolger.

He is extremely worried about the effect.

“This is my concern as a mature New Zealander, is that we are dividing New Zealand as we have never seen it before.”

Graham shared Bolger’s concern.

“I think there is becoming an intolerance in the rest of the population which I find disturbing,” said Graham. People talk to me about it and they are angry. They think it has gone miles too far.

“I don’t believe that most Māori want sovereignty or separate representation or 50 per cent on Three Waters or Five Waters. What they want is a fair go and I think they are entitled to a fair go.”

A fair go, is what almost everyone would support. But ending equality of suffrage and democracy as we know it, is only going to rip the country apart.

“The concept of partnership has got legs which it doesn’t deserve,” Graham said.

Nobody had had the courage to argue against it or question the logic behind it.

“So it has got away. I don’t think anybody is explaining what it means or where it takes us or the raison d’etre for the whole thing.”

His view on the potential for difficulties over the partnership decision is not new. In a book he wrote 25 years ago, Trick or Treaty, about being Treaty Negotiations Minister, he said the courts and the Waitangi Tribunal were creating problems in describing the Treaty as a partnership, instead of like a partnership.

“The Crown is not in partnership with Māori in running the country and it would be totally unacceptable in my view if this concept were to be pursued. It implies some sort of joint management with veto rights vested in each party. That cannot be the case.”

In his interview, Graham said if it was the intention of the parties to the Treaty that henceforth New Zealand would be governed 50:50 Māori and the Crown, it would have said so.

Common sense.

Graham said it was strange that some Māori were saying they were suffering the results of colonialism 200 years ago.

“My parents’ generation went through 15 years of two world wars and a depression. Most people got wiped out, either shot or lost their shirt. But they never moaned about it from then on. Life’s like that. You have your good times and your bad times.

“Some shocking things were done and they needed to be corrected and acknowledged. But to keep going on and on was the very thing I tried to get rid of, frankly – looking in the past, harbouring grievances. It will just hold them back.”

Blaming inequities in colonialism is lazy politics. One can stand for believing stealing of land was bad, but also think the impact from something that happened 180 years ago is fairly minimal.

Jews in Europe had their land and assets confiscated, and those who fled overseas penniless have done remarkably well in many societies.

Ordinary German families at the end of WWII were effectively penniless. Their homes were rubble, the infrastructure was destroyed etc yet in just one generation they built themselves up. The same in Japan.

Graham said while there was one law governing all, people had different rights within that law.

For example, common law rights under English law for fishing or customary harvest survived the Treaty and continued unless they were extinguished by statute or abandonment.

“But not all Māori had that right. If Tainui went to the Titi islands and tried to take mutton bird, there’d be a bloodbath because that’s Ngāi Tahu.

I’m all for recognising customary rights for Iwi or Hapu under the common law.

Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson told the Herald in July that co-governance was “a manifestation of the delivery of partnership” but he did not expect it to feature in the party’s manifesto next year.

Of course not. But have no doubt it is their agenda.

New Zealand Young People need to see their Role Models

The recent achievement of the Black Ferns to win the Women’s World Cup was remarkable. It also involved considerable foresight to involve two of the world’s greatest rugby coaches in Wayne Smith and Sir Graham Henry. I have spoken to a number of people who were at Eden Park for the final and they were simply glowing in praise about the achievement and the event.

When I was a child in our great country the sporting heroes were very accessible. For a cricket test I would look forward to the 4 – 6pm session on free to air TV. For first class cricket I would be an avid listener to the full commentary on our radios. I used to make sure I got kicked out of classes so I could sit in the hall and listen to matches on a discrete radio. All rugby and netball tests were available live for all families. I remember visiting a girlfriend in 1982 and being press-ganged into docking the lambs. Her father glared at me as he put docking rings on a place I did not expect – but I was more concerned with missing the test kick-off. Hewson vs Gould.

I had been a sports fan from the age of eight in 1974 when Ali defeated Foreman. I became an All Blacks fan in 1975 when Sir Bee Gee scored two remarkable tries in the “water polo” test. As a human being he is still one of my role models. In 1976 I fell in love with athletics through John Walker’s gold medal and the incredible performances of Dick Quax and Rod Dixon. I then admired the remarkable running achievements of Anne Audain, Lorraine Moller and Allison Roe. Rod Dixon, now a good personal friend, complemented the outstanding performance of those women by winning the New York marathon in remarkable style in 1983. In 1984 I wagged a full two weeks of school to watch Coutts, Kendall, Fergusson, MacDonald, Todd (and Charisma), become national heroes at the Los Angeles Olympics. In 1985 Hadlee’s 9 for 52 against Australia was incredible. Equally in 1990, with a great range of stars, the Auckland Commonwealth Games elevated the nation.

I was really stunned a few years back when, at one of the schools I was associated with, we brought the great Kevin Mealamu in to visit and speak with our Year 7 to 10 children. He had only been out of the game for eighteen months, had played 132 matched for the country and won two world cups. Very, very few of the children knew who he was. I think this is something that would have greatly concerned the late, great, Sir Murray Halberg

I have just watched Lionel Messi take Argentina to this year’s World Cup final. Inspiring.

I do not often agree with Willie Jackson. Like the rest of the Labour caucus Jackson has been appalling on education. But, like a broken clock, he is right twice a day. Our New Zealand stories need to be told. Our great sporting fixtures need to be free to air. Apart from any young people privileged to be at Eden Park for the women’s final (and I have heard of teachers taking van loads) I would imaging very few young kiwis would have seen the event. That is a huge shame. The final was on Spark Sport which costs approximately $25 per month. For a broader range of sports Sky costs $40 per month. Neither sounds like a huge amount but it is a barrier and kids with phones are very unlikely to dial in.

If I was walking down the street, even as a huge sports fan, I do not believe I would recognise a significant number of our country’s top sports people – maybe none of the Black Ferns. I don’t have Spark Sport and had run out of e-mail addresses for a 7-day trial.

The TVNZ/RNZ merger may be an appalling idea. If it is and is to be dumped government, media and the sporting bodies need to work out a way to get our sportspeople and artists in the sight and minds of our young people. It may well keep some of our youth away from bad pathways and into a highly aspirational and productive future. I consider that I owe a great deal to my role models.

Govt thinks prohibition will work!

Stuff reports:

Young people are now banned from buying cigarettes for life after Parliament passed some of the toughest laws in the world in order to deter people from smoking.

Under the legislation, which passed its third reading Tuesday, people born on or after January 1, 2009 – who will be turning 18 in 2027 – will never be able to buy cigarettes and the legal smoking age will increase every year.

This is prohibition. It is a policy that has failed miserably every time it has been tried. It will lead to more ram raids, more thefts, more black market and more money for gangs.

General Debate 14 December 2022

Be kind, you arrogant prick!

Newshub reports:

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern was forced to apologise to ACT leader David Seymour after she was caught calling him an “arrogant prick” in Parliament. 

“Such an arrogant prick,” said Ardern, the champion of kindness.

I doubt David is too fussed about it. But imagine the outcry if say Bill English had called Jacinda Ardern a similar thing.

Asked by Newshub if he’s an “arrogant prick”, Seymour responded: “No.”

Again, could you imagine them asking this if the roles were reversed?

Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll December 2022

The public results are here.

Party Vote

  • National 39.4% (+1.8% from November)
  • Labour 33.1% (-2.2%)
  • ACT 10.4% (+0.5%)
  • Greens 8.1% (+0.2%)
  • Maori Party 3.5% (+1.9%)
  • NZ First 2.9% (-0.8%)
  • TOP 1.0% (-1.1%)
  • Conservatives 0.3% (-0.6%)

Seats

  • National 51 (+18 from election)
  • Labour 42 (-23)
  • ACT 13 (+3)
  • Greens 10 (nc)
  • Maori Party 4 (+2)

Government

Preferred PM

  • Jacinda Ardern 35.3% (+0.3%)
  • Christoper Luxon 26.3% (+5.2%)
  • David Seymour 7.1% (+1.0%)
  • Winston Peters 3.4% (+0.9%)
  • Chloe Swarbrick 3.1% (-2.7%)

Favourability

  • Jacinda Ardern: 42% (-4%) favourable, 39% (+1%) unfavourable = +3% (-5%) net favourability
  • Christopher Luxon: 35% (+10%) favourable, 33% (+5%) unfavourable = +2% (+5%) net favourability
  • David Seymour: 33% (+7%) favourable, 34% (-3%) unfavourable = -1% (+10%) net favourability
  • Grant Robertson: 23% favourable, 38% unfavourable = -15% net favourability
  • Adrian Orr: 11% favourable, 25% unfavourable = -14% net favourability

Food inflation close to 11%

Stats NZ reports:

Food prices were 10.7 percent higher in November 2022 compared with November 2021, Stats NZ said today. 

In November 2022, the annual increase was due to rises across all the broad food categories we measure. Compared with November 2021:

  • grocery food prices increased by 10 percent
  • fruit and vegetable prices increased by 20 percent
  • restaurant meals and ready-to-eat food prices increased by 8.0 percent
  • meat, poultry, and fish prices increased by 12 percent
  • non-alcoholic beverage prices increased by 7.8 percent.

This is the highest level of food inflation since 1989, except for one month in Sep 2008 when it hit 10.8%.

Six Labour MPs flee sinking ship

Stuff reports:

Cabinet Ministers Poto Williams, David Clark, and Aupito William Sio will retire from politics at the 2023 election.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern announced the resignations on Tuesday morning. Stuff reported last week Clark was expected to resign, and Ardern had forecast other ministers would be headed out the door in the coming year.

MPs Jamie Strange, Marja Lubeck, and Paul Eagle would also resign at the 2023 election. Eagle, the MP for Wellington electorate Rongotai, recently ran for the city’s mayoralty but was unsuccessful.

Clark will be a bit of a loss to Labour. He didn’t do well in health (but Little is making him look better every day) but was competent in other portfolios.

The real surprise is Jamie Strange as he is a first term electorate MP. I can’t recall the last time an electorate MP retired (as in voluntarily, not due to scandal) after one term, but he is honest about it:

Strange, speaking to Stuff about his resignation on Tuesday, said he was “better suited for government than opposition if you look at my personality type, so it was good timing for me coming into government”

That is an extraordinary thing to say, as it is all but an admission that he doesn’t not expect Labour to win.

No doubt he also looked at the result of the Hamilton West by-election and figured that he has a fair chance of losing his seat and is unlikely to be given a winnable list place.

This is probably not the last announcement of retirements. I expect at least one more, and you may also have some senior MPs go list only, so they can bail after the election without causing a by-election.

General Debate 13 December 2022

NZ journalists lean heavily left

The Worlds of Journalism Study asked a number of interesting questions on NZ journalists. The aspect of most interest to me was their self-professed political views. The results were:

  • Left of centre 81%
  • Right of centre 15%

Of the 81% who said they were left of centre, a quarter (or 20% of all journalists) said they were hard or extreme left.

If you compare those who say they range from left to extreme left (42%) to those who range from right to extreme right (1%) it shows how the worldview of most journalists is so far out of sync with the population.

This doesn’t mean they are consciously biased. It just means many have a worldview where they simply don’t understand the values of half the population

Ombudsman says MIQ was a lottery

Newshub reports:

The Chief Ombudsman says the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment acted “unreasonably” in its advice to ministers over the managed isolation and quarantine (MIQ) voucher allocation system.

“We ended up with a lottery – a system that did not fully allow for the consideration and prioritisation of individual circumstances of people trying to come home during the COVID-19 pandemic,” Peter Boshier said on Monday.

This is not news to most people, but useful to have it confirmed by the Chief Ombudsman.

“Key decisions about the allocation system were made by government ministers and I do not have jurisdiction under the Ombudsmen Act to recommend they apologise,” Boshier said. 

This is polite speak for I can’t tell Ministers to apologise, but they should!

General Debate 12 December 2022

RIP John Armstrong

The Herald reports:

Former New Zealand Herald political journalist John Armstrong has died, aged 68.

He had a distinguished career reporting and commenting on politics for 30 years until ill health forced him to retire in 2015.

His incisive writing earned him great respect among peers and politicians alike.

Armstrong began work in the parliamentary Press Gallery in 1985 for the New Zealand Press Association and he joined the Herald in 1987.

He worked for a decade as the Herald’s political editor. In 2003, a few years after being diagnosed with Parkinson’s disease, he became political correspondent.

John’s columns were mandatory reading for everyone in politics. No other column would be awaited so eagerly with his take on the week. They were massively influential because John was so fair and incisive. He was a model for press gallery reporting.

It is remarkable that he managed to carry on writing for 15 years or so with Parkinson’s. It was difficult to see his physical decline, but he didn’t let it stop him doing his job.

I do not recall a time when John Armstrong wasn’t in the press gallery. He was there basically my entire adult life. I first got to know John as a Young National, and then as a parliamentary staffer and since then as a blogger and commentator. He was always one of my favourite people to talk to on politics, as I often went away with some new thoughts that had not occurred to me previously.

I, like many others, will miss him. Rest in Peace John.

Meet a new heritage building?

Stuff reports:

A rusty storage tank that once housed a garden centre’s cafe and shop is on the heritage list in Wellington’s new district plan, but its film industry owners don’t agree. …

The giant tank was home to the California Garden Centre cafe and shop before it was bought by Sir Peter Jackson and Dame Fran Walsh in 2017.

Long before that, when it was built in 1926, it was a petrol storage tank for British Imperial Oil – and is one of the few remaining storage tanks of this kind.

That makes it historically significant, according to the council.

The tank was “an increasingly rare representative example of bulk storage tanks erected nationally in the 1920s”, heritage evaluators wrote in their report.

So what is this piece of important heritage?

If the Council think this should be preserved as a heritage building, then I have a solution.

Let the Council buy it, and use it as office space for their heritage team!

General Debate 11 December 2022

Some facts about the Hamilton West by-election

  1. Labour won the seat by a 16% margin in 2020
  2. Labour lost the seat by a 16% margin in 2022
  3. This is the first by-election since 1985 where National has won a seat off Labour
  4. This is only the second by-election since 1946 where National has won a seat off Labour. In fact since National formed in 1936, it had previously only won seats off Labour in three out of 67 by-elections.
  5. The provisional results are very close to the Taxpayers Union/TheWorking Group/Curia poll with the differences being just 0.4% for Potaka, 1.4% for McDowell and 2.5% for Dansey.
  6. Turnout was very low at just over 14,000
  7. The margin of around 2,300 on a turnout of 14,000 is around equal to a 6,500 margin in a general election

Hamilton West results

General Debate 10 December 2022