Luke Malpass lays out the challenges for Chris Luxon in election year. They are:

• Releasing big policy ideas on how to transform NZ
• Decide whether to target voters in the centre or on the right
• Positioning himself as a moderate
• Selecting good candidates
• Deciding whether to advocate for expansive change or to be a small target

YouGov had the following net approval ratings for members of the Royal Family in December:

1. William, Prince of Wales +62%
2. Anne, Princess Royal +59%
3. Catherine, Princess of Wales +57%
4. King Charles III +35%
5. Prince Edward, Earl of Wessex +34%
6. Camilla, Queen Consort +12%
7. Prince Harry, Duke of Sussex -26%
8. Meghan, Duchess of Sussex -39%
9. Prince Andrew, Duke of York -79%

This poll was before his book was leaked and before his disastrous interviews, so one can only imagine where Prince Harry will be in the next poll. I guess -40% or lower.

The Herald gallery team made predictions for 2023. They include:`

• Robertson will promise tax cuts for those on low incomes, if re-elected
• TVNZ/RNZ merger is axed
• Income Insurance proposal is delayed
• Four more Labour MPs will announce retirements, including two Ministers
• Two Labour MPs will switch from electorates to list only
• Ardern and Robertson will resign as MPs, if they go into opposition
• Nicola Willis will win Ohariu
• Chris Bishop will win back Hutt South
• NZ First will be back in and be on the cross benches
• Winston will retire, even if NZ First get in
• Te Pāti Maori will win three electorate seats

There have been 11 ballots for the Speaker of the US House and the deadlock continues with 20 Republicans refusing to vote for the candidate selected by the majority of their party – Kevin McCarthy.

Such an outcome would never happen in NZ, but we have far more centralised parties. In the US there is very little in the way of a party hierarchy, and the parties are more brands than united disciplined organisations. The primary system means many representatives care more about winning a primary in their seat, than what is good for the overall party.

McCarthy is an unappealing Speaker. He grovels to Trump, and seems to have few principles. But he is the person 90% of the GOP House support. But they need the other 10%.

In the short term this is wonderful for Democrats. The Republicans look totally focused on themselves, and divided. They have won the House but can’t even elect a Speaker.

Eventually, there seem to be three ways to finally get a Speaker.

1. McCarthy gives another concessions to the Freedom Caucus rebels that they vote for him. This seems unlikely, as he has already caved in to many of their demands and they are still voting no.
2. McCarthy accepts he can never get the numbers and someone like Steve Scalise is elected Speaker. This is a rerun of 2014 when McCarthy also failed to get the numbers and Paul Ryan became the compromise. The big difference though is in 2014 it was worked out in advance, not after 11 floor votes.
3. McCarthy becomes unviable but moderate Republicans don’t want to reward the rebels and they vote with Democrats to elect a moderate Republican as Speaker. Note it doesn’t have to be a current member of Congress. This is the most unlikely outcome.

In the meantime, with no Speaker the new President pro tempere

I’m away tramping this weekend (with eight kids and nine other adults) so if there is any breaking news, that is why I won’t be covering it!

My little Renault Megane weighs 1419kg. A Tesla Model S weighs 2100kg.

Could it be that the EVs are aiding and abetting tearing up our roads? That is a huge weight difference.

This is on top of the fact that – due to extraction and disposal methods of materials my Megane has to be driven for 40,000km before the Tesla eeks ahead in terms of emissions – and then only marginally and dependent on those extraction and disposal methods.

NZ now has 62,000 EV’s – up 60% in 2022.

Given there are no farm vehicle alternatives this must bite in rural areas: “the Toyota HiLux since April has a penalty of between $NZ1293.75 and $NZ4772.50 according to the NZ Ministry of Transport’s website. Ford’s Ranger cops fees from $NZ2026.88 to $NZ4657.50. This applies to new and used examples.”

The costs to taxpayers have been enormous so far:

New Zealand’s clean car discount is intended to be a revenue-neutral system, with subsidies being paid for by a tax on vehicles with high emissions, such as diesel-powered pickup trucks. Since April, however, only NZD62.8 million (USD35.7 million) has reportedly been collected from owners of high-emissions vehicles, but over NZD95 million (USD54 million) has been paid out in subsidies. 

I wonder how many lower-socio-economic families have gone EV? Are we supposed to think about these things or just go with Michael Wood’s next bright idea?

Stuff reports:

Prince William once physically assaulted Prince Harry, resulting in visible “scrapes and bruises” when a verbal altercation over his marriage to Meghan Markle escalated, according to his upcoming book Spare.

The Guardian obtained a copy of the memoir before its release on January 10, and reported Harry describes an incident in 2019 at the younger prince’s home at Hottingham Cottage, where William called Markle “difficult”, “rude” and “abrasive”.

The argument escalated and William “grabbed me by the collar, ripping my necklace and …knocked me to the floor”.

What a pitiful sook. He is reduced to trying to make money by writing a book that blames everyone bar himself, and then whines that he is estranged from his family.

The rest of the royal family should simply ignore him. The UK public basically despise him, and this will not change things for the better for him.

In light of the news that Leonardo DiCaprio has a new girlfriend, I thought I would share this chart showing his age and the age of his various girlfriends.

He really doesn’t like them getting over 25!

Stuff reports:

A Government decision on whether Chinese visitors to New Zealand need to return a negative Covid test is still pending, while experts err in favour of testing after earlier saying it was probably not needed.

China is now opening up its borders after years of strict enforcements and residents will soon be able to start applying to leave the country.

However, the loosening of domestic restrictions led to a reported explosion in cases in China just as borders are about to open.

Countries including Australia, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan have already imposed screening requirements, with them requiring travellers from mainland China, Hong Kong and Macau to provide a negative Covid-19 test before being allowed entry.

People need to understand Covid-19 is already endemic in New Zealand. It is here, and never leaving.

In the last week 40,000 people tested positive in NZ for Covid-19. With so many people not bothering to test, or to file their test results, the true number may be 100,000+.

So to think that blocking a few score travellers from entering NZ will have any sort of meaningful impact is farcical.

Stuff reports:

The UK branch of climate action group Extinction Rebellion has announced an end to disruptive protest action, saying such methods have not achieved their desired effects.

However, it remains to be seen whether New Zealand chapters or other climate activist groups in Aotearoa will follow suit.

Extinction Rebellion announced its “controversial resolution to temporarily shift away from public disruption as a primary tactic” via a post on its website.

I know a few people in the oil and mining industries and almost universally they regard Extinction Rebellion as their best allies in terms of turning normal people off climate activists. They are more valuable than a plethora of PR firms.

If the morons in these groups hadn’t created them, then Exxon probably would have set them up and paid the organisers.

So I guess it is a sign of slight intelligence they have realised pissing off millions of people doesn’t persuade anyone.

Stuff has made their predictions for 2023, which I copy below along with my comments.

1. Covid-19 will no longer play a meaningful role in politics for the first time since 2019. The consequences of Covid will continue to play out, but regardless of case numbers, the political train will have moved on. DPF: Already the case.
2. At least one leader of a major political party will no longer be leader, or will have announced their exit, by the end of the year. DPF: Likely, but not certain. If Labour lose, Ardern will go. If National lose but are close, I would see no reason for a change.
3. Airfares will continue to be expensive and Air New Zealand’s fares, in particular, will become a political headache for the Government. DPF: Agree will stay expensive, but not sure it will be a problem for the Government.
4. After a busy year of post-Covid travel, Jacinda Ardern will make a trip to China, being the first leader to do so since 2016 and the first since Xi Jinping has really started asserting his authority over the country. DPF: Actually with current sentiment, I don’t think she will go there in an election year unless as part of a broader meeting of leaders.
5. With the major three waters legislation shepherded through Parliament, Nanaia Mahuta will lose the local government portfolio in a cabinet reshuffle, but she will retain foreign affairs. DPF: Agree.
6. There will be a new political party in Parliament. Whether it is an NZ First comeback, TOP, New Conservatives or another party, the times seem right for a political disrupter to come to the people’s house. This is extremely rare in New Zealand politics and tough to do, but 2023 could just be the year. DPF: I think NZ First will make it.
7. There will be another sizeable anti-government/vaccine type protest out the front of Parliament, although it will last only for a day. DPF: Of course there will be a sizeable protest at some stage. Like saying it will rain.
8. The Māori Party will win two electorates: Rawai Waititi’s current seat of Waiariki and the seat of Te Tai Hauāuru, which Speaker of the House and MP since 2014 Adrian Rurawhe is not expected to recontest. The party will bring in at least one other MP from its list. DPF: Bold call but probably correct.
9. Ayesha Verrall will become the health minister, while the overworked and underrated Andrew Little will be moved on to other portfolios as part of the reshuffle at the start of the year. DPF: Underrated?? Agree he must and will be shifted.
10. Transport Minister Michael Wood will be compelled to write Auckland a big cheque for light rail in the face of Mayor Wayne Brown’s refusal to pay for the current plan, or the plan will be changed, yet again. DPF: No cheque but no progress either except press releases and consultants.
11. Labour MPs Deborah Russell, Barbara Edmonds and Duncan Webb will all be promoted into Ardern’s ministry. DPF: On talent, they should be.
12. More Labour Cabinet ministers will announce their retirement before the general election. DPF: Almost certainly.
13. When the Green Party holds its AGM and the co-leadership positions fall vacant current co-leader James Shaw will be re-elected without any fuss, unlike this year. Marama Davidson will remain leader. DPF: I hope so.
14. New Zealand will go into recession, however it won’t officially be a recession – defined as two consecutive quarters of negative growth – until after the election. DPF: Agree only one negative quarter before the election.
15. Inflation – as measured through the Consumer Price Index – won’t fall below 6.5% prior to the election. But the Reserve Bank won’t need to ratchet up interest rates any higher than its currently predicted high water mark of 5.5%, and Adrian Orr and the bank’s monetary policy committee may be able to stop south of that. DPF: Disagree, I think it will be lower than that by the election.
16. Te Whatu Ora’s Health New Zealand’s backlog of elective surgeries will remain and even blow out further, from about 5.2 months of extra work estimated in October. DPF: Yes, likely.
17. The drop in house prices will stabilise by the middle of the year. DPF: Inevitable.
18. A potential 4 year-term for parliament will become the subject of more serious debate and perhaps a campaign in the coming year. DPF: Sadly I doubt it.
19. Jacinda Ardern will continue to be preferred prime minister in public polls up until the election. DPF: The PM almost always is the Preferred PM in the polls. But during the campaign, this may change.
20. Regardless of whether Labour forms Government after the election, at least 18 of its MPs will lose their jobs. DPF: This is effectively saying Labour will drop to no more than 35%, which seems likely.
21. With the FIFA Women’s World Cup – co-hosted by New Zealand finishing in late August, and the Men’s Rugby World Cup finishing on October 28 in France, the general election will be held on the second or fourth Saturday of November. DPF: Agree it will be November.

Just saw this 2018 article by Andy

• There was no ketch. No one but Guy Wallace says they saw it. Not the 1,500 people there. Not by the 100 other boat owners. And it didn’t feature in the thousands of photos taken.
• Watson repainted his boat before Police were even looking for Ben and Olivia
• The two hairs found on Watson’s boat that were DNA matched to Olivia
• Watson lied in his first Police interview about what he was wearing that night
• Watson says he can’t find the clothes he wore that night
• The 70 hours of recorded conversations between Watson and his former GF struck those listening as from a man completely devoid of compassion
• Not once in the 70 hours of conversations, did he deny he was the killer to his former GF

Stuff has scored their 2022 predictions and just gets a pass mark.