Newshub has details of the UMR poll in late July 2021.

Party Vote

• Labour 43% (-5% from last UMR poll)
• National 28% (+4%)
• ACT 13% (+2%)
• Greens 7% (-1%)
• NZ First 4.4% (-0.6%)
• Maori Party 1.7% (+0.2%)

Seats

• Labour 56 (-9 from election)
• National 36 (+3)
• ACT 17 (+7)
• Greens 9 (-1)
• Maori 2 (nc)

Preferred PM

• Jacinda Ardern 50% (-5%)
• David Seymour 14% (+2%)
• Judith Collins 11% (nc)

Covid-19 response

• Good 63%
• Poor 14%

Country Direction

• Right direction 62%

The key takeaway is that the gap between CL and CR parties closed in one month from 21% to 9%. That is a large and significant movement.

However a 9% gap is still a very decent lead, and National remains in the 20s, which is not a position you can form a Government from.

Seymour at 14% Preferred PM is significant. It has been a long time since a minor party leader polled so highly. According to my data series from Colmar Brunton, the last time a minor party leader was at 14% or higher was:

• Winston Peters in Oct 1996
• Jim Anderton in Feb 1996

So basically 25 years ago.

This image has made me tear up with conflicting emotions.

It is incredibly sad that tens of thousands of Afghanis are having to flee and leave behind their homes and possessions (and family and friends) to escape the Taliban.

But heart warming to see the common humanity as the crew of the Globemaster decided to stuff the rules and relegations and help as many as possible.

This would be a good time for New Zealand to announce we will take in a special quota of say 1,000 refugees from Afghanistan.

Quite extraordinary for the Minister of Health to attack the Cancer Society as being “completely off the planet” simply because they have complained that cancer treatment and waiting times is not one of the 12 health priorities Labour announced.

National made cancer patients starting treatment within 62 days as one of their health targets (which Labour abolished). This saw the percentage starting within four weeks lifting from 78% to 93%. It is now back at 85%.

The Cancer Society has commented:

“We are not ‘off the planet’, we are on the ground. Around the clock we are assisting those affected by cancer and in our work, we can clearly see that what we know of people’s experiences is not reflected in the new health system indicators. We’re worried this signals that cancer care is not considered a priority.”

“We know that the Government tracks lots of pieces of data about the performance of the public health system and cancer outcomes. But we’re concerned that a cancer treatment indicator is no longer included in the “top table” list of health system indicators, especially as the Government has said these reflect the Government’s priorities and areas where improvement is needed most. Cancer is New Zealand’s biggest killer and needs to be a priority.”

The Cancer Society exists to support all New Zealanders affected by cancer working within communities through services like supportive care nurses, transport to treatment and accommodation.

“We work tirelessly to ensure that the 71 New Zealanders who receive a diagnosis every day in Aotearoa can turn to us for support during one of the most difficult times of their lives.”

Think about what that drop from 93% to 85% means for the 71 NZers a day diagnosed with cancer. It means six fewer New Zealanders a day start cancer treatment within 62 days. Over a year that means over 2,000 more New Zealanders waiting longer than 62 days to start treatment.

The politics of this are terrible for the Government. Having the Minister of Health attack the Cancer Society reminds me of when National in the late 1990s got into a fight with Plunket. Politicians never do well against iconic NZ charities.

I read a piece on Stuff this morning titled: I read a piece on Stuff this morning titled: Poor attendance and low NCEA results but parents are lining up to get children into alternative school

Here are some “highlights”:

Students can choose what they study and attendance is almost half the regional average

Less than 20 per cent of year 12 students regularly attended Ao Tawhiti Unlimited Discovery in term 1, while across the whole school it was under 40 per cent. The national average was 68.5 per cent. [Atrocious in itself.]

Ao Tawhiti Unlimited Discovery is a state-funded special character school, and despite its unconventional approaches to teaching is hugely popular.

Based in a purpose-built $30 million building in Mollett St, the school has a maximum role of 670, from year 1 to 13.

She said non-attendance “is a concern because of the link between attendance and achievement”, but the school’s special character means “students are central in directing their own learning” and can “learn any time and anywhere”.

The system of self-directed learning means years 7 to 13 students can opt in to five timetabled classes a week, or none.

The percentage with level 3 or above was below the regional (59.3 per cent) and national (59.1 per cent) figures.

Students with NCEA level 3 or above were:

• 2018 – 24 (40.7 per cent)
• 2019 – 24 (38.1 per cent)
• 2020 – 17 (25.8 per cent)

Helen Hurst, deputy secretary of sector enablement and support at the MoE, said “If regular attendance data for Ao Tawhiti starts to show high levels of unjustified absence and concerns about student achievement then we will identify what additional supports the school may need.” [How low would attendance and achievement need to go for the MoE to care?]

Comment

This school costs the taxpayer nearly $6m per year in operational costs, salaries and building maintenance plus another $1.5 million interest on $30m.

At least I now have more understanding of why the Ministry has currently turned down our Villa Education Trust application for a 480 student Designated Character school near a transport hub in Auckland.

We promised the wrong things:

– at least 90% of students fully attending.

– Level 1 NCEA being achieved at over 90% and UE at 60%.

– Well taught courses and high quality project work that extend the full NZ Curriculum.

– No capital cost to the tax payer through using lease premises.

– No new nett operations/salary costs because the money follows the students for those categories.

We have clearly misunderstood what education in NZ is/was about.

The Herald reports:

A teenager remembers being excited while getting rushed to hospital to give birth, not knowing her precious baby girl was already dead.

“We had prepped her room and everything … we couldn’t wait to share her with our big whānau,” the grieving woman says in a Health and Disability Commission (HDC) report released today.

Two years after losing their daughter, the teen couple have today won an apology from a midwife for failing to properly monitor their daughter’s growth during pregnancy and request suitable testing.

The couple, their whānau and the midwife have not been identified in the report citing privacy reasons.

An investigation by the country’s health watchdog revealed the midwife had not measured the fundal height at every visit. The fundal height is a measure of the size of the uterus used to assess fetal growth and development during pregnancy.

In the woman’s final weeks of her pregnancy, the woman developed severe swelling, headaches and elevated blood pressure.

In this situation, a midwife is meant to request a pre-eclampsia blood test and a urine analysis at each visit, but that did not happen.

So the midwife didn’t measure fetal growth or do any blood or urine tests.

When the woman was in labour, the midwife assessed her condition by telephone but didn’t recommend an in-person assessment, although it was warranted, the HDC report said.

She was then rushed to hospital.

The baby was delivered more than 14 hours after a specialist confirmed she did not have a heartbeat and had died.

An obstetrician documented that his impression was that the baby had probably died several days prior because of pre-eclampsia, the HDC report said.

This story is sad enough, but here is the part that makes me mad.

Before the HDC investigation findings, a review of the midwife’s care was conducted by the Midwifery Council of New Zealand (MCNZ). It found that while documentation was “brief at times”, the midwife had “met her professional responsibilities”.

The Midwifery Council once again shows it is more interested in protecting bad midwives, than upholding standards.

There’s a reason we’ve gone with an obstetrician for our maternity care. Not because there aren’t many great midwives. Hell, probably 95% of midwives do an amazing job.

But the Midwifery Council time and time again does not hold to account the say 5% who don’t do an amazing job, and don’t call for medical interventions when they are necessary.

You should not have the HDC coming to vastly different findings than the Midwifery Council.

Newshub reports:

The Prime Minister says she’s surprised to hear the story of a sick 11-year-old and his family being declined emergency managed isolation (MIQ) spots.

It comes after a Newshub report about 11-year-old Maddox Preston, who flew to the US city of Houston with his family six weeks ago for potentially lifesaving treatment. Maddox was diagnosed with an aggressive brain tumour when he was 9-years-old and it kept coming back, despite four brain surgeries and two rounds of chemo in New Zealand.

But father Chad Preston said they’ve been unable to get an emergency spot in MIQ to return from overseas, despite their application being bolstered by Starship Hospital and US doctors.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, who last week was sent an open letter on behalf of almost 2000 Kiwis abroad calling for immediate and urgent changes to the MIQ system, was asked about the Prestons’ case during an interview with The AM Show on Monday.

The system is broken. The PM should not be surprised by stories like this.

Stuff reports:

The Government is facing mounting pressure to urgently evacuate Afghan allies from Afghanistan, as the Taliban surrounds Kabul and those who worked alongside New Zealand troops grow more desperate.

Cabinet ministers will meet on Monday to discuss how New Zealand might assist Afghanistan, as the Taliban seized the last remaining provincial city on Sunday, forcing many to flee to Kabul.

Nowroz Ali, who was employed for five months by New Zealand’s Provincial Reconstruction Team in the Bamyan province, said he had fled for the capital Kabul in the hope of being evacuated.

“I left behind my family. While I’m on the way, for several hours … near Kabul there was fighting for a couple of hours, and we had to stop … If I be caught, I would be over.”

Sadly it looks like the entire country may fall to the Taliban. The US decision to withdraw remaining troops looks like it will condemn the women of Afghanistan to second class status. We will probably see the US Embassy evacuated in the next few days, or less.

He said most of the 38 Afghans who claimed to have been employed by the Defence Force, and were seeking assistance from the Government, remained in Bamyan.

New Zealand needed to send assistance as soon as possible, “as the other allied forces countries are”.

“We expect the New Zealand Government to do the same for us … Make a concrete decision as quickly as possible. We never have expected this, no one in Afghanistan could have expected that it could happen this quick.”

It’s only 38 families. We should get them out of there asap.

The Herald reports:

A patched mongrel mob member has been sentenced to community detention and supervision for threatening to kill National MP Simeon Brown.

25-year-old Chase Jayden Kimura appeared today in the Hutt Valley District Court, on charges of threatening to kill and previous charges of driving while disqualified.

He was sentenced to four months’ community detention and 12 months’ supervision. …

Death threats should attract serious consequences.

Stuff reports:

A traumatised and neglected Māori girl was placed in the care of a Pākehā couple. They have provided her with a safe, healthy, loving environment for nearly three years. No one disputes that the girl, now nearly 6, has received excellent care from the couple.

But Oranga Tamariki and the girl’s iwi want her removed because they don’t think the couple can meet her cultural needs.

Over a recent week in the Family Court in Napier, the circumstances that led to this battle were laid out in painstaking detail. Also laid out: a series of gaps, mistakes and falsehoods perpetuated by Oranga Tamariki social workers.

I think love, health and safety trump cultural needs.

Stuff reports:

There was an average of 29 passengers per trip in the weekdays between July 26 and 30, and an average of 127 passengers across the two Saturday trips.

The week before, in the school holidays between July 19 and 23, there was an average of 40 passengers per trip.

Waikato Regional Council chairman Russ Rimmington admitted traveller numbers are “a shocker”.

“We’ve got to get our heads around it.

“If there’s a change of Government, and we don’t improve patronage, this service will be in jeopardy,” Rimmington said in a recent council meeting.

Rimmington has correctly analysed that Labour will happily waste $10 million on a train no one uses, but National would not regard $10 million for 30 commuters as sensible spending.

A guest post by Taxpayers’ Union analyst Neil Miller:

Sir Tim Shadbolt’s cringeworthy inability to chair even the simplest of Invercargill City Council meetings was livestreamed to the world and is confirmation it is past time that he should go.

He is New Zealand’s longest serving Mayor, certainly one of the best known, and definitely one of the most beloved, both in his home of Invercargill and around the country.

Sadly, recent years have not been kind to Sir Tim. The council meeting in question saw Sir Tim call for a vote three times on confirming the minutes, and four times on moving to public exclusion, despite councillors passing both technical motions on the first attempt. It is embarrassing to see councillors repeatedly have to say “Your Worship, we have already voted on that” over the course of just seven minutes.

This is not a one-off bad day as His Worship claims. Six months ago, the Thomson Report, commissioned after the Department of Internal Affairs raised concerns about troubles at the Invercargill City Council, found that the Mayor was unable to chair basic council meetings without copious and obvious help from his colleagues and staff. The report notes “obvious concerns including short term memory deficits, confusion, and the need to be closely managed … They report increasing incidents of embarrassment during meetings which a, generally, compassionate Council has done their best to hide from the general public.”

It has just never been on such public display before this livestream hit the national media.

The Mayor cannot drive the Mayoral car anymore, there is speculation that his partner has been drafting his communications, and he is constantly refusing to engage with media inquiries. He responds to all criticism with unsubstantiated accusations of workplace bullying behind closed doors. Anyone who watches the recent video will see clearly frustrated councillors having to guide the Mayor repeatedly and gently through performing a core role of his job.

As much as we have loved Sir Tim over many years, he has rapidly become the poster boy for local government recall elections. Overseas, ratepayers are able to trigger a binding referendum on a misbehaving or underperforming mayor or councillor. If they fail to gain a majority they must resign, and a by-election is triggered. The recalled politician can run again in that election.

Ratepayers should not have to wait years to have their say on a tragically flawed Mayor. The wonderful City of Invercargill deserves a Mayor who is in charge of the agenda and can drive them forward.

I agree. It is unacceptable that a Council has a Mayor who is so cognitively impaired he can’t even chair a meeting. The Minister of Local Government has sacked other Councils for far less. Time for her to tell the Mayor that if he doesn’t resign, she will sack the Council and then reappoint the other Councillors as Joint Commissioners.

It is painful to watch.

Stuff reports:

Amazon’s decision to shift production of its Lord of the Rings TV series to the United Kingdon is a blow to the New Zealand screen industry, which is heading into an “MIQ-induced coma”.

On Friday, it was revealed Amazon Studios would shift production of the second season of the as-yet-untitled project to the UK.

Post-production of the first season, shot largely in Auckland, would remain in New Zealand until June 2022.

Amazon had said as recently as April it intended to continue production in New Zealand.

Screen Industry Guild Aotearoa New Zealand (SIG) president, Brendon Durey, said the decision to take the series elsewhere would be a blow to many of the estimated 2000 New Zealanders involved in the project.

This is a huge blow – both in terms of lost jobs here, but also the opportunity to showcase NZ to what will be a huge global audience.

Stuff reports:

Invercargill’s mayor, Sir Tim Shadbolt, is storing personal items – including furniture, mattresses and a large appliance still in bubble wrap – in council-owned buildings across the city.

The items and their general whereabouts have been confirmed by deputy mayor Nobby Clark, who says he volunteered his time to help Shadbolt get on top of his “hoarding”.

But the mayor has hit back, saying he still uses many of the items and does not appreciate the help.

“During the past 28 years I have accumulated many items in the course of my position,” Shadbolt said.

Then store tham at your own effing place.

The latest REINZ house price report is out.

The median house price is $166,000 higher than 12 months ago. So if you are on the top tax rate you would need to have earnt an extra $250,000 to be able to afford the same house as a year ago.

The median price in Auckland is now $1.175 million and Wellington is $861,500.

A year ago only 18% of houses sold for over $1 million and now it is 35%.

Stuff reports:

Fortress New Zealand can begin to open in early 2022 provided all New Zealanders have had the chance to be vaccinated, according to the Government’s hand-picked group of scientists advising on reopening New Zealand to the world.

But that travel should be at first restricted to vaccinated Kiwis going overseas from New Zealand for short trips, and should begin with shorter stays in managed isolation. …

If you still have to go through MIQ, you have not really reopened the border.

I would have thought that say three months after every NZer has had the option of being fully vaccinated, we remove all travel restrictions for those adults who are vaccinated.

Also I would expect there to be an annual Covid-19 booster vaccine just as we have an annual flu vaccine.

Stuff reports:

A financial adviser has called for property auctions to be more tightly regulated or banned because they “crucify” fire home buyers.

Rod Schubert, managing director of Rod Schubert Financial Advice (RSFA), said first home buyers often found themselves forking out $2000 for valuations and building reports before they could raise their hand in an auction room.

“It is jaw dropping what this entails in terms of the average estimated cost to the first home buyer, and goes something like this: $1,000 for a valuation, $500-$600 for a full building report, say $300-$400 for checking a LIM and title,” Schubert said.

“If they were heading to a few auctions, let’s say five, that wipes $10,000 off their hard-earned deposit.”

Someone selling a house has the right to choose whatever medium they think will get them the best price.

It is frustrating to spend money on a potential house and not get it, but this is not restricted to auctions. You go through this for tenders also.

Also in recent times it has become more common for vendors to make a LIM and building report available to all interested parties, as that increases the number of people willing to make an offer.

NewstalkZB reports:

A historian says it’s absurd for the Greens to have a painting of Winston Churchill removed from outside their offices.

The portrait has long hung on the second floor of Parliament outside the doors which lead to the public galleries above the Debating Chamber.

Members of the public would walk past it on their way to watch Parliament.

Despite hanging in a public part of the building, the portrait hangs directly outside the Green Party’s parliamentary offices. The party has only recently moved into those offices, after a reshuffle of parliamentary office space.

The Party maintains the issue was it not being Kiwi art, but co-leader James Shaw has also claimed Churchill had “racist instincts”.

National’s Judith Collins has called it offensive.

AUT Professor Paul Moon told Heather du Plessis-Allan it’s not behaviour you’d expect from adults.

I’ve been predicting cancel culture would one day extend to Winston Churchill, and the Greens have proven me right.

Anyone who has studied history knows that of course Winston’s record before WWII was blemished, or worse. This is in fact why I like him so much – he was definitely someone with huge failings and weaknesses.

And of course someone born in 1874 will have vastly different views on races than someone born in 1974. The world has changed massively.

But beyond doubt he was the man for the moment for WWII and his sublime role in defeating the forces of Nazism and fascism dwarf everything else he has done by many orders of magnitude.

No doubt the Greens will want to take down any portraits of Leonardo da Vinci as he slept with his pupils. And Barack Obama must be condemned as an opponent of same sex marriage.

And William Wilberforce may have got slavery abolished but did you know he supported the dissection of criminals, so he must be canceled.

Michael Morrah reports:

Health officials have quietly made changes to COVID-19 vaccine availability for port workers amid the Delta variant scare in Tauranga.

Until now, only workers interacting with ships and crew were entitled to a vaccine – just a fraction of the workforce at the ports.

Charles Finny, who is the independent chair of the Port Company CEO Group, says they’ve been trying to change the rules to allow all workers to get the jab.

“We’ve been arguing for that for months,” he says.

But suddenly, amid the Tauranga COVID-19 scare, a change was made after port CEOs met with Director-General of Health Dr Ashley Bloomfield on Tuesday.

“We were told yesterday and Dr Bloomfield agreed with us that that didn’t make much sense,” Finny says.

“There was definitely frustration and we’re very pleased that we have got the rules changed.”

The Government’s messaging so far, even from Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern on Wednesday, had been that vaccines were always available for port workers.

“They have been able to access a vaccine since the very beginning of our rollout. We prioritised port workers,” she said.

But National’s Chris Bishop, who is the party’s COVID-19 response spokesperson, says he’s “staggered” by the Prime Minister’s statement because it isn’t the case.

Only 10% of POT workers have been vaccinated and we were told it was due to vaccine hesitancy and misinformation, But it turns out the truth is the Government was refusing to give them priority access to the vaccine.