Govt policy is to blame

The Herald reports:

Energy Minister Megan Woods is seeking advice about whether wholesale electricity prices are too high, with analysts warning current pricing risks political intervention.

It is the political intervention that has caused the spike in prices. More intervention is the problem, not the solution.

Woods acknowledged that low inflows to New Zealand’s hydro catchments, coupled with a shortage of gas supplies, meant prices were likely to be above average.

And which Minister has banned offshore gas exploration?

This was being reflected in both wholesale spot prices and near term futures prices, currently above $230 per megawatt hour, more than double the long term average.

The futures prices is significant. This is the market saying we have a supply problem. The problem is government policy with its ban on gas exploration and also the insistence that any future projects must be 100% renewable.

So yes retail electricity prices will start rising in the next 12 months. And they will not be small increases. And they will be as a result of the Government.

Caitlyn Jenner for Governor

Axios reports:

Former reality TV star Caitlyn Jenner is talking with political consultants as she actively explores a run for governor of California, three sources with direct knowledge of her deliberations tell Axios.

Why it matters: Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, is facing a recall election. A challenge from Jenner, a high-profile Republican and previous Trump supporter, would draw heightened attention to the race to lead the nation’s most populous state.

I would love Caitlyn Jenner to stand, if for no other reason that see wokedom implode with seeing the most famous LGBTI person in the world stand for election of the most liberal state in the US as a Republican.

In a recall election there is no primary. If a majority vote to recall Newsom then the new Governor is whomever wins a plurality of the vote for a replacement. So Jenner’s high name recognition would be a real asset.

General Debate 08 April 2021

The anti open data Government

Chris McDowall writes:

Following months of planning, the first Covid vaccinations were administered on February 20.

More than six weeks later there are still no vaccination progress numbers on the Ministry of Health’s website.

The only regular updates on the rollout come during Wednesday media updates fronted by Minister Chris Hipkins and director general of health Dr Ashley Bloomfield.

Unfortunately, the numbers provided at these events are often vague and occasionally flat-out wrong. …

There should be daily updates on the vaccine progress. Once again the Government sits on data it thinks it unhelpful.

Following the Herald article, the Government has now agreed to do a weekly update on the MOH website, which is better than the status qup at least.

Islamic party holds balance of power in Israel

MSN reports:

The head of a conservative Islamic party who has emerged as a kingmaker following Israel’s latest inconclusive election called for change Thursday, without endorsing Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or his rivals.

After last week’s vote, Abbas said he was open to negotiating with the pro-Netanyahu camp and with the ideologically divided group of parties seeking to oust the veteran prime minister.   

On Thursday, Abbas quoted the Koran and said he was “a proud Arab and Muslim”, unprecedented remarks for a leader tasked with the role of tiebreaker in Israeli coalition politics. 

Abbas, 46, heads the Raam party that won four seats in Israel’s March 23 vote. 

Rather interesting that the usual suspects smear Israel as an apartheid state the the balance of power is held by a proud Arab and Muslim.

In reality Arabs and Muslims have greater democratic and civil rights in Israel than in almost any other country in the Middle East, or at least the neighbouring ones.

Best Labour’s Members’ Bill ever

Great to see a Labour MP promoting this law change. This will increase his majority in Wairarapa 🙂

Note it doesn’t mean places that would normally be closed on those days can open. It means places that are allowed to open don’t have to spend thousands of dollars on special licenses.

General Debate 07 April 2021

The Chauvin trial

Like many, I have been following the trial of Derek Chauvin who has been charged with murdering George Floyd.

The fact that so many spectators tried to intervene, because they could clearly see what Chauvin was doing was wrong, is telling. One even called the Police on Chauvin. A firefighter offered assistance as he was concerned Floyd needed aid, and the officer refused. Chauvin’s actions were disgraceful and lacking in humanity.

Stuff reports:

The Minneapolis police chief testified that now-fired Officer Derek Chauvin violated departmental policy in pinning his knee on George Floyd’s neck and keeping him down after Floyd had stopped resisting and was in distress.

Continuing to kneel on Floyd’s neck once he was handcuffed behind his back and lying on his stomach was “in no way, shape or form” part of department policy or training, “and it is certainly not part of our ethics or our values,” Police Chief Medaria Arradondo said.

Arradondo, the city’s first Black chief, fired Chauvin and three other officers the day after Floyd’s death last May, and in June called it “murder.”

His testimony came after the emergency room doctor who pronounced Floyd dead testified that he theorized at the time that Floyd’s heart most likely stopped because of a lack of oxygen.

I understand Chauvin was willing to do a plea deal to lesser charges for ten years jail. If convicted of second degree murder the maximum sentence is 40 years in prison and likely to get around 15, experts say.

The murder has to be proven beyond reasonable doubt, and the medical evidence is key:

The defence argues that Chauvin did what he was trained to do and that Floyd’s use of illegal drugs and his underlying health conditions caused his death.

Chauvin attorney Eric Nelson questioned Langenfeld about whether some drugs can cause hypoxia, or insufficient oxygen. The doctor acknowledged that fentanyl and methamphetamine, both of which were found in Floyd’s body, can do so.

The county medical examiner’s office ultimately classified Floyd’s death a homicide – that is, a death at the hands of someone else.

The full report said Floyd died of “cardiopulmonary arrest, complicating law enforcement subdual, restraint, and neck compression.” A summary report listed fentanyl intoxication and recent methamphetamine use under “other significant conditions” but not under “cause of death.”

Under cross-examination from Nelson, Langenfeld said Floyd’s carbon dioxide levels were more than twice as high as levels in a healthy person, and he agreed that that could be attributed to a respiratory problem. But on questioning from the prosecutor, the doctor said the high levels were also consistent with cardiac arrest.

There is no doubt Chauvin acted unlawfully and in violation of Police policy. He knelt on the neck of a helpless unresisting person for over eight minutes, ignoring the calls from Floyd that he couldn’t breathe.

Whether his unlawful actions reach the threshold of murder, the jury will decide.

If Australia’s vaccine rollout is an ‘unmitigated disaster’ then what is NZ’s?

News.com.au reports:

Scott Morrison is desperately pretending a major crisis isn’t happening, as Australia is shamed by the world on a crucial measure in the fight against COVID.

Yesterday, four million Americans received a dose of the COVID-19 vaccine as the country continues to rapidly accelerate its rollout.

By comparison, that’s the same number of Australians who were meant to have gotten a jab by the end of March … a target that the Government fell short of by 3.4 million people.

Just two per cent of Australians have received a jab so far, compared to 30 per cent of the US population and 46 per cent of people in the UK.

In a scathing editorial for The Sydney Morning Herald today, the rollout was described as an “unmitigated disaster” that Scott Morrison must now stop pretending is going well.

So Australian media are labelling getting 2% of your population vaccinated as an unmitigated disaster. So how should NZ media describe NZ at 1.1%?

Kia Kaha Kiri

Stuff reports:

Labour’s Kiritapu Allan has been diagnosed with stage 3 cervical cancer.

The conservation and emergency services minister announced her diagnosis on Facebook on Tuesday morning.

Allan is 37 years old and was promoted to Cabinet soon after the last election.

She is stepping down from her portfolios to take medical leave.

Terrible news. I hope Kiri’s treatment is sucessful.

Kiri is one of my favourite Labour MPs. I met her in 2017 just after she had been elected and she is funny and genuine. Super easy to chat to and get on with, despite being at different ends of the political spectrum. Was not surprised she won East Coast in 2020 and that she got promoted to Cabinet either.

My thoughts are with Kiri, her family, friends and colleagues.

General Debate 06 April 2021

Good submission

A good submission from the NZ Council For Civil Liberties on Labour’s Internet censorship bill. An extract:

a. The Bill fails to define the problem that it addresses.
b. We do not believe the provisions of the Bill will be effective at resolving what we
understand the problems to be.
c. The implementation has been left undefined to be left for later regulation.
d. Neither oversight nor transparency are defined.
e. That the creation of a government mandated internet censorship filter is a threat to
our civil liberties which far exceeds the benefits mistakenly claimed by this Bill’s
proponents.

A badly defined problem, a lack of detail, no oversight, no transparency and a law to allow mandatory filtering of the Internet – this bill should not pass.

The proposed internet censorship system is a very significant change to how New
Zealanders use the internet. It implements a system where government officials can
unilaterally block access to any content, while only making vague promises about oversight
and governance. This seems like a unwarranted over-reaction in a free and democratic
society like New Zealand.

It’s almost a blank cheque because there are no safeguards detailed in the bill.

And the summary:

The New Zealand Council for Civil Liberties believes that this Bill is badly conceived and
dangerous to a free and democratic society. While we understand the motivations that led
to this Bill, we think that it has failed to properly address the issues raised and its proposed
solutions will be ineffective as well as creating harmful side effects.

The Internet filtering provisions are, off memory, opposed by every party in Parliament except Labour. I hope Labour see sense and drop them.

Little bullshitting to Pike families

Newshub reports:

A father whose son was killed at Pike River says the minister responsible for the mine recovery is trying to scare the families into silence.

Newshub has obtained a recording of Andrew Little warning families that speaking publicly and pushing to go further into the mine could jeopardise the prosecution case. 

What a load of bullshit.

Apart from the fact that there isn’t really a prosecution case anyway, even if there was how on Earth could families saying they want to go further in, jeopardise it?

Newshub has obtained a recording of Little meeting some of the families, suggesting if people speak out they might not get justice. 

“It has the potential to undermine the prosecution,” Little can be heard saying. 

“What I find personally annoying about some of the recent public statements is that here’s the police trying to get on with the job and do the best they can to get the evidence they need from the ventilation fan and there are other people going around and saying that’s not good enough. That has a real potential to undermine the prosecution case.”

Someone should have asked how? Pretty disgusting behaviour from the former Minister of Justice to scaremonger like that in an attempt to do political damage control.

General Debate 05 April 2021

Mental Health worse under Labour

The Guardian reports:

New Zealand’s mental health system is “in crisis” and in worse shape now than four years ago, practitioners say – despite much-heralded government efforts to reform it and prioritise national wellbeing.

A commitment to improving New Zealand’s mental health record has been at the heart of the progressive, Jacinda Ardern-led Labour government.

Yeah along with homelessness, climate change and child poverty – all getting worse also.

The latest annual reports from the Office of Mental Health and Addiction Services were finally released on Wednesday, with data from 2018 and 2019. Their release had been repeatedly delayed, so until now the most recent data was for 2017, when the previous National party government was in power. This new data represents one of the first wide-reaching assessments of the mental health system under the current government – and social service agencies say it’s failing.

“It’s hard to find much that’s positive,” said Mental Health Foundation chief executive Shaun Robinson. He said the report showed the mental health system was in worse shape now than four years ago. 

Sad but not surprising.

NZ kowtowing to China again

The Australian reports:

New Zealand has refused to stand with Australia and its other Five Eyes partners to speak out against a much-criticised World Health Organisation investigation into the origins of COVID in China, as it tries to escape Beijing’s wrath.

The shortcomings of the investigation, which has been highly sensitive in China, were imm­ediately pointed out in joint statements released by the four other Five Eyes nations — the US, Britain, Canada and Australia — as well as Japan, South Korea and eight other countries, and in a separate statement by the EU.

So we are almost the only Western nation not to sign on.

But in Wellington, the Ardern government said it needed more time before it would comment on the report, even though it has been circulating among WHO members for days.

“Our technical experts are currently analysing the report,” a spokeswoman for New Zealand Foreign Minister Nanaia Mahuta told The Australian.

“As this is a scientific report, we want to make sure we understand the science before making any comment,” she said.

So only New Zealand has been unable to read the report and react in time.

General Debate 04 April 2021

Exciting

Hollywood Reporter reports:

Game of Thrones is headed to Broadway.

A dramatic stage show spectacular based on George R.R. Martin’s fantasy world is now in development, The Hollywood Reporter has learned exclusively.

The play is from producers Simon Painter and Tim Lawson (The Illusionists), in partnership with Kilburn Live, and will have a story by Martin, who is working alongside award-winning playwright Duncan MacMillan (1984) and acclaimed director Dominic Cooke (The Courier). The team’s goal is to debut productions in New York City, London’s West End and in Australia. The first show is expected to launch in 2023.

The production includes a particularly unique story element that should be a huge draw for fans: While many prequel projects have been put into development since Thrones concluded in 2019, this will mark the first to bring back several of the most beloved Game of Thrones characters. The as-yet-untitled play is set during a pivotal moment in Westeros history, The Great Tourney at Harrenhal, a contest that took place just 16 years before the events in Game of Thrones.

“The play will for the first time take audiences deeper behind the scenes of a landmark event that previously was shrouded in mystery,” reads the play’s official description. “Featuring many of the most iconic and well-known characters from the series, the production will boast a story centered around love, vengeance, madness and the dangers of dealing in prophecy, in the process revealing secrets and lies that have only been hinted at until now.”

This is very exciting to GOT fans like myself. The last season of the TV series was awful and left so many things unanswered. The Tourney at Harrenhal is one of the events most speculated about as it effectively set off Robert’s Rebellion. Questions that may be answered are:

  • Was Prince Rhaegar moving to depose his father, the Mad King?
  • Who did Ashara Dayne sleep with?
  • Who was the Knight of the Laughing Tree? (my guess is Lyanna)
  • How did Rhaegar and Lyanna fall in love?
  • Did they decide to have Aegon (Jon Snow)due to prophecy that he would be the Prince That is Promised?

I see it is planned to show in Australia. So long as we have a bubble by 2023, I’ll be attending!

Re-thinking fishing in NZ

On 3 this afternoon they are showing: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=608525163433913′

You can watch it anytime on youtube at: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dIQNDYoymMU&ab_channel=LegaSeaNZ

It is brilliant. I detest the overblown Climate Change narrative as so many things can be dealt with effectively at a nation level. I got to write the text below for the Gisborne Herald and had a good piece published by Stuff. I live in the Bay of Islands and this just sort of happens: https://www.facebook.com/karen.poole.1656/videos/10157547247581386

Please just help and LegaSea (https://legasea.co.nz/) is the best to help through – tell them I sent you. This is what I wrote ….

A few years back my wife, children and I were in Japan. Halfway through a morning the kids were hungry and I suggested an apple. They took off around the supermarket and came back with two monsters — one an apple, the other a kiwi. Like many New Zealanders, our family was discovering the difference between the produce we export and that we get to eat at home.

Economic modelling provides sound reasoning for this; people overseas are prepared to pay more and this earns foreign income that can then be spent on the imports we like to have. Few of us consider, on a daily basis, that we have little or no access to the best of our land and oceans. It can be done differently.

I love fishing, mainly land-based. Technically I am not very good but it is nice once a week to have fresh snapper, kahawai, squid or trevally. I have to admit — whether fishing in the Bay of Islands or Auckland — that I have never caught my limit. I have often scoffed at the “back in the day” stories of plenty. I have always listened with re-assurance to statements that New Zealand’s quota management system was “world class”. A recent documentary based on the New Zealand scene called The Price of Fish has caused me to think a bit harder and do some research. Now that I have grandchildren, thinking about their future is part of it.

Estimates have that in 1850 the biomass of snapper in the Hauraki Gulf was at 270,000 tonnes. By 2000 the best estimate was 45,000 tonnes — a mere 16 percent of the long-term natural level. Of New Zealand’s 160 recognised stocks, 29 are “below sustainable”. Digging deeper, it is even worse than that sounds. For our stocks MPI sets what they call “soft” and “hard limits”. Typically the soft limit is only 20 percent of what was there back in the day — but drastic action is only taken when the stock dives below the “hard limit”, normally 10 percent.

Are New Zealanders truly satisfied that we are being good stewards of our oceans and providing for a long-term thriving future (not just barely sustainable) when the authorities regard 20 percent of stocks as being OK? Estimates have it that worldwide we are 5th out of 28 for healthy fish stocks. Context is that 33 percent of world fisheries are either overfished or in collapse; plus, you don’t get medals for 5th.

I recently heard it said that if you could see under the ocean in the same way we can see our forests then New Zealanders would truly understand the level of degradation. Thirty-two percent of our nation’s total land area is protected in some form (eg National Parks, reserves). In terms of our 200 mile Exclusive Economic Zone (that is, our ocean) just 0.31 percent is in marine reserve.

As an educator, the main reason for being in the Bay of Islands is to bring school groups and families to this wonderful place. It is the history, the geography, it is the ocean . . . swimming, kayaking, cruising and fishing! It is already a tradition that on a Thursday night I take school groups from Bay Light fishing off the Russell wharf. They catch bait-fish, squid, kahawai, an occasional snapper and watch the stingrays, sporadic sharks and even the odd seal. They marvel at the thousands of small fish flashing around. For many of these children it is their first time fishing and it is not unusual for them to tell us that it has been the “best day of their lives”. We also talk about, not just preserving, but how to improve our nation.

We are overfishing our oceans and there is no doubt some of the methods are degrading the sea floor. About one-third of the snapper catch is recreational, so it is not just the commercial approach that needs to be re-thought.

The Price of Fish documentary and other work by people like Mike Bhana and the LegaSea organisation have convinced me to take this much more seriously. The fish in our oceans belong, first and foremost, to the people of New Zealand. We need to begin to challenge the low-set goals and plan for a long-term future of getting our stocks much closer to historic levels, and our seafloors being pristine.

Back to the apple and kiwifruit my children found in Japan. Ninety percent of our commercial fish catch gets exported. In our supermarkets we pay extraordinary prices for the remains. Over time we need a social buy-back scheme of quota that can support smaller, local commercial fishing and sell exclusively into our shops and supermarkets. One-third of the catch sounds like a good target to me, and the improvement in wellbeing for our people would be significant.

It is time to act. Our oceans ought to be teeming with life. Make a start. Watch the documentary, join LegaSea, write to Hon. David Parker as the Minister of Oceans and Fisheries, catch a feed — not the limit — and agitate for change to our commercial system, out of fairness to New Zealanders.

■ Alwyn is the co-founder of Bay Light Exploration Centre (www.baylight.co.nz) and the academic adviser for Villa Education Trust.

Excellent

General Debate 03 April 2021

A politician should be nowhere near the media merger

The Herald reports:

Former New Zealand First MP and Minister Tracey Martin has been put in charge of the Government’s plans to assess a TVNZ/ RNZ merger as she “gets stuff done”.

Martin’s group will oversee how the business case, being produced by Deloitte, could be implemented in “real life”.

I think it is highly inappropriate for a former politician to be in charge of what should be an independent group to look at whether TVNZ and RNZ should be merged.

We already have a huge issue in NZ with the lack of ideological diversity in the NZ media, and this proposed merger could make it worse.

How could she?

Stuff reports:

A woman researched “drugs that can kill toddlers” before she laced milk with a toxic concoction and gave it to her young child while he was in hospital.

On Friday, the 35-year-old woman admitted two representative charges of ill-treatment of a child by administering various substances – first at Dunedin Hospital, and then at Starship Children’s Hospital. …

This case is especially horrific. Sometimes parents can’t cope and under pressure do terrible things. Their actions are still terrible and must be punished, but i can understand the pressure.

But this case seems very different. From what I can see the mother poisoned her baby son now once, not twice but at least six times. That is a level of malice and deliberation that is chilling.

Surely the charge should be attempted murder not merely ill-treatment?

General Debate 02 April 2021

Sir Ron no more

Newshub reports:

Kiwi investor Sir Ron Brierley has pleaded guilty to possessing child sexual abuse material in Sydney, according to local reports.

According to the Sydney Morning Herald, Sir Ron pleaded guilty to three of 17 charges in the Downing Centre Local Court on Thursday morning. The remaining charges were withdrawn.

The report states while Sir Ron admitted to possessing some of the images, there is disagreement over the exact number of images found on the former corporate raider’s devices.

A sad end to his career but even sadder for the victims of child sexual abuse who end up being traumatized by people trading in photos of their abuse.

It is now inevitable his knighthood will be rescinded, as it should be.