I blogged last week on the twists and turns of the Samoan election. At that stage the Supreme Court had ruled there was no additional MP, and the FAST Party had 26 out of 51 seats and looked to be able to form a Government. Parliament was required by the Constitution of Samoa to meet within 45 days of the election, which is today.

After summoning Parliament to meet on Monday, the Head of State suddenly announced he was cancelling his own summoning. Furthermore he wouldn’t give reasons why at this stage, and wouldn’t say for how long.

It is clear the Head of State has gone from being a neutral figure to trying to throw the election to the incumbent Prime Minister. His actions are clearly illegal and basically what we are seeing is an attempt at a non-violent coup.

The Supreme Court has ruled that his actions were (again) illegal and that Parliament should meet on Monday and elect a Government.

The Head of State has left Apia and returned to his home village. It is unclear what else may occur. The worst case is he declares a state of emergency or worse. Luckily Samoa has a very small military so a Fiji type situation is unlikely.

What is disappointing is the Head of State is a former New Zealand police officer. He should know better and be upholding the law, not acting as a proxy for a caretaker PM.

There may be a role for New Zealand to play in this. If the HRPP Party won’t accept they lost the election and tries to continue to govern, then the New Zealand Government should warn that they would be risking all financial aid, and more. We can’t let Samoa go down the path Fiji did.

Thankfully Samoa has a written constitution and a Supreme Court that isn’t partisan. What has happened there shows how power corrupts. HRPP has governed for 40 years and the PM for 22. There is no tradition of peaceful transfer of power. It is a good case for term limits, so people can’t see themselves as in a job for life.

UPDATE: The Speaker has refused to summon Parliament saying he only obeys the Head of State, not the Supreme Court. So the Speaker has effectively also joined the coup.

This makes things even messier. Parliament could meet without the outgoing Speaker and elect a new Speaker and PM. But the HRPP will boycott the session and claim it is illegitimate. You would have two competing Prime Ministers and which one will the Police and Public Service obey?

The Supreme Court could hold people in contempt for ignoring their rulings. But arresting the Head of State or outgoing PM or Speaker could be incendiary – especially if they are in their local village.

It is a shame to see such a great country being torn apart by the refusal of one man to accept he lost an election.

Two weeks back I wrote a piece in support of Mike King and his organisation’s Gumboot Friday. In the comments section someone asked what I considered the factors to be with the apparent worsening of mental health for children and young people; for example evidenced by calls to Life Line.

My relevant background here is a few tertiary qualifications that shed some light, being in education as a teacher/Principal since 1991, bringing-up three children, observing many families and constantly researching how to improve education outcomes for children in such a way that they feel aspirational about their future.

Clearly this is a huge topic and container loads of books get written about it. Last week I wrote a post on what I consider to be some of the Meta-Impacts (causes) on poor mental health for young people. The aim of these posts is not to be THE expert – but more as lead-ins to get the views of people who might comment and have insights. This post is on the impacts of the child’s direct environment. A third post will look at improving things and with urgency.

Micro Causes:

Some children appear to be almost naturally pre-disposed to anxiety and vulnerable to any negativity. Being anxious is a tendency for them and they need loads of nurture to build resilience. They don’t intend it and “walk it off” is not the pathway to content for them. In our society – including schools – there is very little effective resourcing for these young people. We have 10,000 students not even enrolled in any school and there are children who are school averse through being too scared to go.

I believe that we have many parents in New Zealand who are poorly equipped for the hardest task in the world. That might be through their past, their age, lack of a partner and/or other forms of support (e.g. extended families). I often hear people talk about remarkably successful and creative adults who grew up in appalling situations (my brilliant, late, father-in-law spent nearly six years as a child in Holland under Nazi rule). My impression is that these people are an exception rather than the rule. I also hear people say – “well they should not have had a child(ren) if they are not up to the job.” That ignores the current children in very difficult circumstances. Wealth and good parenting also do not go hand in hand. We may well be in a parenting crisis. How many families eat together 5 – 7 times a week? How many parents read to their children every night? How many parents have superbly structured rules around screen-time and web access? As a society we seemed to think that since we stopped smacking we have prevented neglect, abuse and indifference.

Much of our schooling is appalling. Underqualified teachers. Very poor practices. Teachers who publicly complain about their jobs. A huge lack of aspiration that does not support the development of self-esteem at all. Self esteem and reliance is earnt through achievement.

Peer negativity and bullying significantly impact many children and teens. The PISA studies have NZ children as the most bullied in the OECD. We seem somewhat wired to seek acceptance – when that leads to children and teens seeking it through alcohol, smoking, and delinquent behaviour to impress others it is almost always unlikely to end well. Many children simply feel desperately lonely.

The impact of internet content and social media is massive – particularly when parents choose to neglect their protective role through ignorance, or laziness. Many children become so wound up (addicted?) to their phones and social media that they emotionally black-mail parents to let them continue to have unfettered access. Parents choose to be powerless – but there is also less help from schools, etc, that there should be. One NZ couple if doing incredible work in this area and produced this world class documentary. I doubt that any sane human being can watch that documentary and not consider that we have a MASSIVE problem with pornography and social media that will impact this generation to the extent that many will not be able to have loving, balanced, respectful and fulfilling relationships.

Very much love to know your thoughts.

More next week. Please support Gumboot Friday on the 28th: www.iamhope.org.nz/

Pete Burdon writes:

Political parties rely on media attention to keep themselves and their policies relevant and in front of potential voters. Since MMP was introduced, major parties of opposition can no longer assume that this position entitles them to a particular amount of media publicity.

There is a precedent to back this up. Remember when David Shearer was Labour Leader? While he may have been a good leader behind the scenes, his media skills were not the best. That’s why Green Party co-leader Russell Norman was often preferred by media as an opposition spokesperson.  This increased the Green Party profile at the expense of Labour.

National is now at risk of a similar fate. It’s not that the leadership is bad on the media stage like Shearer, it’s that David Seymour is so good. He knows what the media want and he gives it to them.

Seymour is very good. And I note the ACT press team are very quick off the mark on breaking issues. To be fair, it is easier to get signoff in a smaller party.

Here are some examples. During the election campaign, most politicians said we needed to create jobs. While that’s true, it’s very abstract and boring. Seymour put it this way. “What we need is for one New Zealander to offer another New Zealander a job thousands of times.” That’s interesting, concrete and gives the media a powerful sound bite to use.

Here’s another example. This was when the government was looking at centralising some of the decisions currently made by local school boards. Rather than merely saying he thought the system was working well and any change should help support struggling students, he dressed up the point into a rhetorical question. He said: “If you want to make our education better, do you do it by undermining and messing with what we are doing well, or do you do it by helping those students who need help?”

This is a key skill – to take what can be abstract concepts such as employment and education and make it relatable.

The Herald reports:

Māori voters who responded to a Horizons Regional Council survey overwhelmingly support bringing in Māori wards next year.

Councillors have been given the results of a Horizons survey mailed to nearly 18,500 individuals on the Māori electoral roll who are enrolled to vote in the Horizons region.

Ninety-six per cent of the responses were in favour of the regional council establishing Māori constituencies in time for next year’s local body elections.

What a waste of money. They did a poll of people who had already chosen to be on a Maori roll asking them if they support a Maori roll. Of course 96% said yes.

What they should have done is survey all voters in the area and break the results down as follows:

• Non-Maori
• Maori on general roll
• Maori on Maori roll

That may have given some useful info on what locals think and how it differs between groups. But doing a poll solely of Maori who have already chosen to be on a Maori roll is a nonsense.

It’s like polling members of the Liverpool AFC whether or not they support Liverpool.

Jarrod Gilbert returns to the Herald and writes:

Conflict between gangs rarely occurs without cause, and often leads to tit-for-tat retaliations and an escalation in violence. As has been the case recently, that escalation can endanger the public.

In these instances, police need to respond quickly and surgically to de-escalate matters. What that means is identifying the specific chapters of the gangs involved and blanket-policing them; investigating all matters involving their members and prosecuting even minor crimes, pulling them over at every opportunity, investigating old matters and generally staying on their tails.

Excellent idea. I hope the Police listen.

This approach is resource-intensive and therefore necessarily short-term, but it has three important effects.

Firstly, the suffocating nature of the policing means attempts at retaliation are made more difficult, allowing a cooling-off period that creates a firebreak in the escalation.

Secondly, it shows the gangs — both those involved and all other groups — that there are very real consequences for such actions and encourages the leadership and senior members to keep their men in line.

And finally, this blanket policing demonstrates public concern and ensures affected communities feel these matters are being taken seriously.

Consequences are a good thing.

Take family violence, for just one example, and the fact that on average one in every five weeks a kid is killed in a domestic setting. That is a far bigger issue with immense flow-on effects for the poor wee mites living in those households. For every innocent child that is brutally killed, there are scores who survive only to grow up dysfunctional and angry, often becoming the next generation of offenders.

Yet, we don’t discuss that massive problem nearly as much as we do the gangs.

Can only agree.

A nice story from the NZ Herald:

Ben Purua will stand on the stage at the Ahuwhenua Trophy Dairy Competition Awards Dinner as one of three finalists in the Young Māori Farmer Award. Ten years ago, as a teenager, he was convicted of manslaughter.

Ben was sentenced to five-and-a-half years, and served four years at Waikeria Prison. …

He said he grew up in Pukekohe without a father and in an environment of violence, drugs, alcohol and gangs.

As a kid he wanted to be a gangster just like his uncles, and took up drinking, drug-taking and crime to pave the way.

He said before he was a teenager he was in trouble and eventually he served time in juvenile prisons.

Before he was legally an adult he was charged with the murder of an elderly man in Hamilton.

The charges were downgraded to manslaughter and Ben pleaded guilty.

He felt that his life was over, he couldn’t read or write and he thought his gang life was all he had to look forward to.

But inside Waikeria he undertook the farm training programme, and with help with his learning problems he found something he enjoyed and was good at.

And now:

Luckily, he got a break when he was employed in a farming job.

He admits it was a big step for someone to take. Mostly he never got to the interview stage once he disclosed he had a criminal record.

Nikki explained: “Every prospective employer would have Googled his name and up came the case.”

But having been given a chance, Ben said he was driven to make it work.

Ben left the gang life – it was a big step, it was his whole life growing up – he got clean and applied himself to his new goals, and his life started to turn around.

He has completed the husbandry and feeding course Level 3 through Primary ITO and is currently part way through the Level 4 course. …

Now aged 26, Ben is the 2IC for a contract milker at Trinity Lands farm, a 307ha (287 effective) property near Tokoroa which runs 1000 cows.

Nice to see a story where rehabilitation has worked. Well done Ben.

Lindsay Mitchell blogs on three lots of data from the Household Economic and Health Surveys.

First she looks at the proportion of children living in households with high housing costs, by ethnicity. The figures are:

• European 8% over 50%, 35% over 30%
• Maori 8% over 50%, 32% over 30%
• Pacific 10% over 50%, 34% over 30%
• Asian 18% over 50%, 48% over 30%

So Asian children are far far more likely to live in a household with high housing costs than other ethnicities. So does this mean they are far more likely to live in mouldy homes:

• European 5% of children live in mouldy homes
• Maori 11%
• Pacific 17%
• Asian 3%

How about going hungry as their housing costs are so high. Here is the proportion of children living in a household where food sometimes or often runs out:

• European 15%
• Maori 29%
• Pacific 45%
• Asian 12%

Lindsay concludes:

Asian children live in homes with the highest ratio of housing- to- income costs.

Asian children have the lowest experience of damp, mouldy homes.

Asian children are the least likely to go hungry.

Looks a lot to me like Asians prioritise renting or buying at the limit of their capability; that they seek better properties and better neighbourhoods and take responsibility for any damp or mould; and that even on tight budgets they know how to feed their kids.

Many Asians are immigrants. A lot come from countries that are much poorer than New Zealand. We should look at why they are relatively so successful and try to emulate it.

For those interested in the law, some interesting recommendations from the Judicial Rules Committee, focused on improving civil justice. Their recommendations include:

• Increase the maximum threshold for the Disputes Tribunal from $30,000 to at least $50,000 and possibly $100,000. Possibly expand appeal rights for cases above $50,000.
• Rename the Disputes Tribunal to the Small Claims Court or Community Court.
• Appoint a Principal Civil District Court Judge to oversee and strengthen the civil registry of the District Court
• Allow for senior lawyers to work as part-time Deputy Judges
• Require more evidence at the High Court to be documentary rather than oral, except where there is a significant factual contest

Looks like sensible reform proposals. The status quo is not satisfactory as the costs of civil litigation are rarely worth pursing it as an option.

NBC reports:

As Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot approaches the two-year anniversary of her inauguration, reaching the halfway point through her first term, she told the city’s media outlets that she would grant one-on-one interviews to mark the occasion, but with one condition: she will only speak with journalists of color.

An inevitable extension of the ever growing trend to divide everyone up by their skin colour.

Newshub reports:

The ACT Party claims advice from the Ministry of Education around healthy school lunches proves Kiwi kids who bring their own food to school are being discouraged from eating it.

“After it was revealed this week thousands of lunches are going to waste, the Ministry now wants to stop children from eating their own lunches,” ACT leader David Seymour says.

The Ka Ora, Ka Ako – healthy school lunches programme aims to reduce food insecurity by providing access to a nutritious lunch for students at certain schools across the country with high levels of need.

Advice from the Ministry of Education from March suggests schools could try to ensure children are getting the most from their lunches by creating a time of around 15 minutes for their provided lunch, “while food from home stays in students’ bags”.

Seymour claims this treatment “punishes” schoolchildren and their parents who have taken “personal responsibility” for providing their own lunch each day.

“It’s just mean to leave kids sitting there at lunchtime waiting to eat their own food,” Seymour adds.

I’d call it bonkers, not mean.

The Ministry also suggests that schools should choose a time for lunch that will give staff and students the most opportunity to benefit and claimed healthy food tastes better if you are hungry.

Yeah when you are starving, even lettuce tastes good!

• Benefits up $32 to $55 a week
• Student allowances up $25 a week
• $200 million for Pharmac
• Maori Housing to get 1,000 new homes, 700 repaired homes
• $100 billion of borrowing for next five years
• Net crown debt to hit 48% of GDP
• No surplus until at least 2027

NBC reports:

The New York Attorney General’s office said Tuesday that it is pursuing a criminal investigation into the Trump Organization, in addition to the ongoing civil probe.

“We have informed the Trump Organization that our investigation into the organization is no longer purely civil in nature. We are now actively investigating the Trump Organization in a criminal capacity, along with the Manhattan DA. We have no additional comment at this time,” said Fabien Levy, a spokesperson for the office said in a statement.

This is significant. You don’t announce an investigation is now criminal, unless you have some pretty good evidence.

The NYAG’s investigation into the Trump Foundation saw it closed down, Trump paying $2 million and Trump found unfit to be a charity director, without supervision, again. So they have a record of winning. This is going to be very interesting.

A very good article in (surprise) the NY Times. Basically someone appeared on Jeopardy! and did a gesture with three fingers. A mob of 600 former contestants signed a letter condemning the gesture as white supremacy and demanding to know why it wasn;t edited out.

Of course the gesture was not white supremacy. He had won three times and was signally the number three. He signalled two when he was on two wins and one when he had his first win. But even confronted with these facts, they would not back down. They still demanded he apologise for his gesture. Somehow the fact he had a photo of Frank Sinatra on his Facebook page was also relevant.

The Auditor-General reported:

I am not yet confident that all of the pieces will fall into place quickly enough for the immunisation programme to reach the level of vaccinations required for the Government to meet its goals. In my view, there is a real risk that it will take more time than is currently anticipated to get there.

Anyone want to bet against the Auditor-General’s view?

Newshub reports:

A Newshub investigation has found persisting issues with our contact tracing capacity, with staff during the so-called Valentine’s Day cluster at risk of burnout despite dealing with just a handful of cases.

Emergency planning documents from the February outbreak have been obtained, which show concerns were flagged about “limited resources” almost immediately. 

At the peak of the outbreak, with just 15 active community cases and 160 people to follow up within a day, the majority of staff were not working sustainable or appropriate hours. 

Weren’t we promised a contact tracing system that could cope with 1,000 cases a day? In fact it was the now Associate Minister of Health who said that is what we needed. And what we have is a system that struggles to cope with 16.

Thank God we are an island(s) state.

The Herald reports:

The Health Minister is making an urgent law change after a High Court judgment ruled it was “reasonably arguable” the Government’s provisional approval of the Pfizer Covid-19 vaccine is “problematic”.

The case – Nga Kaitiaki Tuku Ihu Medical Action Society Incorporated v The Minister of Health – was in the High Court at Wellington last week.

In a decision released today, Judge Rebecca Ellis said: “it is reasonably arguable that the decision to provisionally approve the vaccine for much wider use is problematic” and went beyond the powers of section 23 of the Medicines Act.

The Government had has months and months to plan for the vaccine. And part of that should have been checking the legality. If they had identified some uncertainity over legal authority, then it would have been easy to bring a bill to Parliament which could be considered quickly but with good scrutiny.

Now what we have is urgent legislation to be passed which will probably have minimal scrutiny by MPs or the public.

So the net support/opposition for each issue is:

1. Rename breastfeeding chestfeeding -63%
2. Allow children to use puberty blockers -48%
3. Take down historic statues -41%
4. Allow men identifying as women to use women-only facilities -29%
5. Lose your jobs for politically incorrect posts on social media -19%
6. UK is systemically racist -10%

It’s a useful reminder that the loud voices on social media don’t represent the majority, or close to it.

Note I’d be in the minority on a couple of those. I do support under 18s being able to use puberty blockers where clinically justified.

Would be interesting to repeat this poll in NZ.

Stuff reports:

A Canterbury businessman died from a fall after drinking 3.5 litres of beer and up to 1.7 litres of wine in less than four hours.

That’s 27 standard drinks in four hours or one drink every nine minutes.

A coroner’s report into the 47-year-old man’s death, released publicly on Monday, warned of the danger of intoxication and the importance of monitoring a head injury after the man fell backwards while drunk at Christchurch’s Carlton Bar and Restaurant.

If he didn’t fall he may have died from alcohol poisoning!

After the man’s death, the Alcohol Regulatory and Licensing Authority ruled Carlton staff should have noticed the man’s intoxication levels in the last 45 minutes he was there.

It suspended the bar’s on-license for eight days at the end of 2019, including New Year’s Eve, and the manager’s certificate for 28 days.

A fair call.