On Wednesday I blogged what I regarded as the ten best things about Donald Trump. They were:

1. He will sometimes defy the conventional wisdom
2. Judicial Appointments
3. He tries really hard to keep his promises
4. His instincts are anti-interventionist
5. He is more available to the media than any other modern President
6. He delivered large tax cuts
7. He is reasonably open about his motives
8. He is sceptical of regulations
9. Middle East peace deals
10. He is a cultural warrior against the woke cancel culture

So what are my list of the ten worst things:

1. He suffers from narcissistic personality order

A US Senator once said that narcissism is a bit like pornography. It is hard to precisely define, but you know it when you see it.

It is clear that Trump has extreme narcissism. I don’t mean the minor variety that many politicians have. I mean the variety which controls him so badly, he can’t act outside it.

Trump is addicted to the need for adoration. He constantly claims he is the greatest or the best at everything. He sees almost everything through a sole prism of how it impacts him personally.

His NPD is responsible for so many of his other failings. It also makes him very easy to manipulate. Other world leaders know they can get the US on side, merely by sucking up to him.

When asked what was the worst aspect of the Covid-19 pandemic which has killed 230,000 people his answer was that he knew a couple of people who died. His only lens is how it affects him.

2) Record deficits and debt

The national debt was $19.9 trillion when Trump took office. Last month it was $27 trillion, a 36% increase in four years. This is the fastest increase of any President.

He promised to eliminate the debt within 8 years. It is now $82,300 per person.

Debt to GDP is now 136%. His projected deficit for 2020 was $1.1 trillion pre-Covid. It is $3 trillion post-Covid.

Under Trump the GOP has abandoned their record of fiscal conservatism and are leaving the next generation not just massive debt, but a deficit that probably is too large to be eliminated.

3) Trump is a pathological liar

Now again all politicians tell lies from time to time. Most try not to, but there are few politicians who you will find are invulnerable to a fact check.

But Trump has a pathological tendency to lie constantly. He lies around 50 times a day. He can’t help himself. I’m not sure if he even regards them as lies. He seems to live in a fantasy universe of his own where whatever he says must be the truth. On one day he told 189 lies.

What convinces me his lies are pathological is because many of them are totally unnecessary. Take for example his lie that he had a bigger inauguration crowd than Obama, which he forced his press secretary to repeat.

No one (except Trump) ever expected he would have a bigger crowd than Obama. DC votes 91% Democrat. It is also 46% African American. Of course the first black Democratic President will have a larger crowd in DC than a Republican. No one expected Trump to have a bigger crowd.

But Trump could not handle the reality. So he lied about it, forced Sean Spicer to lie about it and instructed a Government photographer to edit or crop photos to remove empty spaces. And all for something no-one but Trump cared about.

4) Trump is a protectionist

Trump is an enemy of free trade and a rules based trading system. He is trying to cripple the World Trade Organisation, and sees trade as a zero sum game. He doesn’t see trade as something where both buyer and seller gain. His trade policies have been to the left of every modern Democratic President.

5) Trump is incompetent

I’ve worked for a head of government. I know a wee bit about what the role involves, and the sort of issues that need to be managed.

Trump is profoundly incompetent in almost all aspects of the job. He is a terrible negotiator who failed to get funding for the wall. He turned down an offer of $1.6 billion, shut down the Government and then did a deal where he got $1.38 billion. His negotiating style only works when he holds all the power. In a system of shared power, he has failed time after time.

He can’t even manage basic stuff like giving a clear message on Covid-19. For eight months he had done worse than nothing. A semi-competent head of government would be saying what are the fives most important things we need to do to mitigate the impact of Covid-19 and then make sure he was getting daily or weekly updates on them – important but non sexy stuff like PPE supplies.

Most Presidents have a problem that they can’t possibly find time for all the issues that they could help resolve. So staff triage issues so only the most complex go to the President.

Trump is the opposite. Almost nothing goes to the President. He is not interested. Other Presidents work 16 hour days. Bush would start at 0645. Obama would often work until 1 am. Trump barely had three hours of work or meetings a day. His diary often has up to eight hours of executive time, which we now know means watching Fox News.

Conservative Commentator Kevin Williamson has a good article here on Trump’s incompetence, and how his areas of success are generally the ones he knows nothing about.

6) Trump doesn’t read

It has been often reported that Trump basically doesn’t read anything at all, except articles about himself. He doesn’t read fiction. He reads very little non-fiction. He doesn’t read briefing papers. He has never read a biography of another President.

Again this is part of his NPD. He has no interest in anything but himself and has no need to read anything because he already knows the answer to everything.

7) His own appointees know he is a bad President

People appointed by the President to a senior job in the White House or Cabinet tend to be loyal to that President for pretty much life. They form an informal club and often get together and meet, and catch up with their former boss. These are people personally picked by the President.

With Trump the vast majority of those who were hand picked by him for senior jobs now say he is incompetent, dangerous, unfit for office or worse. These are people who worked with him day in and day out. Now sure you can be delusional like Trump and think they’re all wrong, or you could pause and think hey there is a pattern here.

Those who are known to have said Trump is unfit for office include two of his own Chiefs of Staff, two National Security Advisors, a Director of Communications, his Secretary of Defence, two Homeland Security Secretaries, his Attorney-General, his Secretary of State his Director of National Intelligence etc

8) Trump is cruel

Trump reminds me of the kids who pulls wings off flies. He has a streak of cruelty and lack of empathy that disqualifies him for public office. That’s not just my view, but the view of his sister who has known him all her life.

He mocks disabled reporters, the appearance of wives of candidates. He withdrew funding of medical bills for his nephew’s infant with cerebral palsy because of a dispute with his nephew. Yes he used a critically ill infant member of his family as negotiating leverage.

I’m an employer both in my own business, and have been on several boards that have had to decide to let people go. Like most decent human beings I try to do it in a way to treat people with dignity. Trump does the opposite. Cabinet Secretaries literally find out they have been sacked through his Twitter feed. There is no excuse for that, except that it illustrates Trump enjoys humiliating people and harming them,

He spreads vicious unfounded conspiracy theories that his former friend Joe Scarborough murdered Lori Klausutis because Scarborough is now critical of the President. He has no empathy for the huge pain it causes Lori’s parents to have her death made into a political attack. He is incapable of empathy unless it is of political benefit to him.

9) Trump is vindictive

The Washington Post is critical of Donald Trump. This is no surprise. It is a left leaning newspaper. Jeff Bezos purchased the Washington Post. Becuase Trump doesn’t like the articles published by the Washington Post he repeatedly demanded the Postmaster-General (which he appoints) double shipping rates for Amazon to pubish Bezos.

He tried 50 times to get the US Government to stop a merger of AT&T and Time Warner because TW own CNN which he doesn’t like.

Trump has a binary view of everything. Either you are personally loyal to him or you are an enemy. He sacks public servants because they told the truth under subpoena and oath. He sacks law enforcement officials because they won’t drop investigations.

He uses the power of his office to punish people because they are critical of him.

10) Trump is a danger to the rule of law

The rule of law may seem abstract to some people but it is of vital importance. It is what separates great countries from what authoritarian countries. It is the principle that everyone must obey the law, including those in Government.

Trump has publicly demanded his AG and FBI Director lay charges against his political opponents. He has publicly demanded charges be dropped against his friends. He has pardoned or commuted convicted criminals whose testimony could implicate him.

He put a freeze on funds approved by Congress for Ukraine, to try and blackmail the Ukrainian President into smearing Joe Biden.

He has spent months undermining faith in the democratic process by claiming that the elections will be fraudulent if he loses. This does potentially irreversible harm to democracy. If a major segment of the population do not accept the outcome of voting as legitimate, society crumbles.

I have little time for Al Gore, but after the US Supreme Court halted any further recounts in Florida, he did his country a huge service by declaring while he disagreed with the decision, he accepted it and George Bush was the President-Elect. Could you imagine Trump saying that if he was in that position. He would be calling for civil unrest or worse.

He has called for a Judge to be removed from a case because the Judge’s parents were Mexican (the Judge was born and raised 100% in the US).

Do you recall the outrage from Republicans when Obama’s AG had a five meeting meeting with Bill Clinton on a plane while the FBI was investigating Hillary’s emails. It definitely was an inappropriate meeting. But my God that is a 2 or 3 or a scale from 0 to 100 compared to Trump publicly demanding his AG and FBI Director open investigations or file charges against his political rival and/.or his son which is around a 90.

I could carry on with a list beyond 10. But in my mind Trump is psychologically unfit of office. There is no amount of policy outcomes that can compensate for him being who he is. He can’t change. He doesn’t want to. And this is not just a matter of style. This is about his eroding of democratic norms and values that may never be undone. He has set the bar so low for presidential behaviour that if God forbid you ever had a Democratic President who acted like Trump, the Republicans have sacrificed their ability to hold him or her to account. Once you accept a new low bar, it is very very hard to raise it again.

American politics, I sometimes jokingly remark, is a full contact sport, and this election campaign has been the most tumultuous and brutal in recent US history. Of great fascination this time is the divergent paths taken by the Biden and Trump campaigns on the manner in which they campaign. I will write more on this after the election once the result is known and so we can judge the merits of each style as to what resulted in victory.

I have always wanted to attend a Presidential campaign rally… for both parties, to get a feel for the differing atmospheres and so when Trump came to town for his first publicly available rally in the metro Phoenix area, I decided to go. I’d like to have gone to the Biden event in Phoenix on October 8, but it was not advertised, and it turned out to be for invited guests and media only. Before I speak about the Trump rally and his rallies in general, it is important to note that the Biden campaign not only holds significantly fewer rallies but limits attendance because of the coronavirus. Biden usually has around 50 people only in socially distanced circles and the most he has ever had so far was a rally in Georgia a few days ago when 350 showed up. Trump’s rallies average between 20 – 25,000 and are held almost exclusively outdoors near the hangers of smaller regional airports. The campaigns mock each other’s tactics, Trump calls Biden Sleepy Joe and taunts him on the few times he seems to venture out from the basement of his Wilmington, Delaware home and for the meagre attendances and Biden accuses Trump of reckless disregard for the pandemic and his surrogates have taken to calling Trump rallies super spreader events. With that introduction, here’s how a Trump rally looks.

Signing up

Even though Trump’s rallies are massive compared to Biden’s, there are actually limits placed on numbers usually by the Fire Departments of the municipalities where they are held. In theory all attendees are issued a ticket – in reality the Trump campaign website uses the ticketing process to collect email addresses and cell phone numbers for GOTV targeting. I was never issued an eticket as I enrolled too late with available ‘spaces’ being snapped up within hours. As it turned out, I bumped into an acquaintance who is a campaign volunteer and she said just show up early enough and you’ll get in as they don’t ask to see the tickets although they close the gate once the capacity is reached. My friend who came with me also enrolled and he did get an email and text confirmation. The sign up process was quick and easy and clear instructions were given with directions and what can or can’t be brought to the rally.

Site logistics

With a rally in such a large metropolitical area (greater Phoenix is almost 5 million), organisers planned for upwards of 30,000. It is easy to gloss over the huge logistics needed to host an event this large. Traffic must be managed so hundreds of police were commandeered from all of the cities on the west side of Phoenix as well as county and state police. You either park in expensive private car parks 15 minutes’ walk away or you park at the campaign’s designated site. There are the bleachers and miles of barricades to be installed, hundreds of fold up chairs for VIP sections, large signs to be erected, huge TV monitors, press bleachers, the podium and platform and logistics of where to park Airforce One so that it is behind the President when on camera and all the usual controlling of the air space coming in and out and making sure that the huge armoured Presidential Cadillac limo (called The Beast) is there to take the President from the plane steps to the rally site. There is the temperature checking and mask distribution tents and then the dozens of metal detector and bag search tables to be hired and set up. Then there are the dozens and dozens of buses that must be hired to shuttle attendees from the designated parking area to the airport. Then there are the paid staffers and many hundreds of volunteers who man the car parks, direct the buses, staff booths selling campaign gear, organise porta loos, schedule vendors selling food, distribute free water bottles to attendees, direct foot traffic and marshal in VIPs. Each rally is a monumental task of coordinated organisation and the Trump campaign does 2 or 3 a day and in the last few days of the campaign, he’ll do 5 or 6! Since the lockdowns were lifted and the GOP recommenced rallies, Trump has held 50 outdoor and 1 indoor event (the fateful Tulsa, OK rally in July). Each rally must cost $500,000 at least so by the time of election day, the campaign likely will have spent $35 million on rallies alone. Each rally is like a mini Superbowl and the Trump campaign will end up doing 70 just like the one yesterday! It’s at times like these that you realise what a huge place America is and the sheer scale of Presidential elections campaigns with EACH campaign spending over $1 Billion!

Arriving

The site for the designated parking was a massive 30 acre piece of empty land on a main road in the town of Litchfield about 6 miles (10 kms) from the Goodyear airport (a small airport that specialises in aircraft repair). We arrived 3 hours prior to the start and already there were 10,000s of cars packed in. Trump campaign volunteers with matching T shirts and white Trump cowboy hats guided the traffic in and so the parking went smoothly given the massive influx of cars. Lined up were about 12 huge buses and people just joined the queue and loaded on the first bus and so on. We ended up on a double decker bus which was fun.

Arriving at the site you soon saw why parking at the designated parking area was the best option because the police cordon was tight and probably 1 km from the site. It took a while to get off the bus due to the long queue of buses disgorging their passengers. Once off the buses, there were two checkpoints to pass through: a temperature check and getting a mask and then security. The first checkpoint had two lines, one for ticket holders and the other for those in a wait list in case not all ticketed people showed up. Normally at Trump rallies the numbers that show up greatly exceed capacity and so these people wait outside and view the rally on a giant screen. The temperature check was quick and anyone testing with a mild fever was turned away. Masks were optional because in Arizona and in the City of Goodyear, there is no outdoor mask mandate, only for indoor public spaces and only in the larger metro areas.

Once done with the temperature check you entered a very long security check queue lined with barricades and with toilets and vendors selling at the back. It was amazing to see the diversity of people lining up – of course plenty of Caucasians like us but I was stunned at the number of Hispanics and African Americans at the event. All ages were represented and not a few kids bunking school! Of note was the vast array of Trump paraphernalia being worn: hats, caps, t – shirts some with quite humourous lines and on behalf of groups (Latinos for Trump, Jews for Trump, Gays for Trump, Cops for Trump, Firemen for Trump even Armenians for Trump!), bags, flags and posters. I was one of the very few with no identifiable Trump gear on me. The line moved quite quickly, spirits were high, and everyone was very friendly. Next to us was an older women originally from Germany and a young black student who was a proud recent convert to Trump. The security screen was all run by the Secret Service (the branch of the Federal Government tasked to protect the President) assisted by TSA agents seconded from the main Phoenix airport. These are the lower level local SS staffers who do the perimeter screening versus the suited Presidential details that travel with him. I have to say that the SS have the most badass uniforms – imagine the average US cop but on steroids – completely black with a cool understated logo and all the gear you can imagine and all young, big and athletic. All bags were searched, and we had to give up our apples (could be thrown), cupcakes and brownies and a tube of Pringles. I could keep water bottles (although free water was given out), an energy bar and bananas.

When we arrived, it was already about 2/3rds full and so we were unable to get much of a decent position. When I was using the toilet, my friend managed to get into one of the bleachers where lower level VIPs were allowed to sit next to one of his mates who is a donor and he told me just to wait for the guy guarding the entrance to be distracted by the crowds and just walk in which I did despite not having the necessary lanyard. I was stopped a second time by a lady near the bleachers and just said that I’d been to the bathroom and she let me through. Now I didn’t have a seat per se but could sit on the step next to the bottom row and as it turned out, it was a brilliant position some 40 feet (12 m) from the podium. Also, in the neighbouring seat was one of the Republican representatives in the Arizona State House of Representatives and she proved to be a mine of information about the Trump campaign. She was fascinated to learn about NZ elections and campaigning.

The format once inside

The format is almost always the same. The ‘show’ is sequenced as follows:

• A central speaker’s podium on a raised platform is usually set in the middle of the rally area. The most important VIPs are in seated chairs in front and immediately to the side. In the front row were the other speakers and senior campaign and White House Staff and to the side also with easy access were all the major Arizona politicians – the Governor, Senator McSally, several of the GOP Congressmen and women, the GOP House Minority Leader, senior party officials and the AZ House Speaker. These areas are cordoned off with barricades manned by Secret Service assisted by the most massive and intimidating security guards dressed in black.
• There is a special set of bleachers in front of the podium at the back of the public area for the flood lights, TV cameras and the press pool. Behind the podium is the largest bleacher with hand selected people to be in the line of sight of the cameras televising the event. These people had colour coordinated gear and all wore campaign masks (although mask wearing in the main crowd was about 70:30 and mostly older people). Many in the bleacher behind the podium were Hispanics and each alternate person carried a distinctive Latinos for Trump sign. The rally location was chosen on the west side of Phoenix which is predominantly Hispanic due to the campaign’s efforts to woo the Latino vote. Others were high level donors who essentially bought their way into the premier location. On ether side were smaller bleachers for people who had paid extra for expedited entry. The sections closest to the large bleacher also were reserved for more POC and were a mixture of all ages and types, businesspeople, and ex – military.
• The main crowds filled up with standing room only behind the VIP seats and spilling out quite a distance either side of the podium. By about 1 hour before the event, the place was chocka.
• Loud motivating music played over the speakers. It was quite the classic playlist: Eye of the Tiger, We are the Champions and Bohemian Rhapsody, several Elton John hits and also some classic Michael Jackson with a few toe tapping country songs thrown in.
• Short warm up speakers kept the crowd entertained and at around about 45 minutes before Trump’s arrival, a singer sung “The Star Spangled Banner”, the National anthem and then everyone doffed hats and placed hands on hearts and pledged allegiance to the flag and it was quite the flag – a gigantic one hoisted by two cranes.
• 20 minutes out from arrival and most of the VIPs had arrived and my neighbour was able to explain who was who. Various Trump campaign staff came out with boxes of MAGA hats (now with 45 on the side) and threw heaps of them randomly into the crowd. Staffers also distributed water bottles as the temperature by now was about 24 C and sunny.
• Running about 15 minutes late, Airforce One was spotted in the sky and the crowd went crazy and as it landed, people were craning to get a shot of the iconic blue 747. More Secret Service agents began to man the barricades and speakers platform, the podium was cleaned and sanitized, the discrete teleprompters were adjusted and an official looking blue binder with the Presidential seal was placed on the podium.
• Trump’s preferred entrance song is “Proud to be an American” by Lee Greenwood and we could see the assembled small motorcade of SS agents and the Beast leave to pick up the President. As Trump walks in, the crowd is going berserk and everyone is on their feet and smart phone cameras rolling. Trump takes his time working the crowd, pointing at people, and raising his fist on a 90 degree angle and slightly pumping it. He looks happy and relaxed wearing a nice blue suit, white shirt and a red tie and of course his trademark fake light blond hair. He doesn’t look orange but sports a light late summer tan.
• Trump gives a typical stump speech that he’s now given with a few local variations over 50 times in this campaign alone. His is clever though – he mixes it up and weaves in praise for the location, name checks local politicians and incorporates commentary on the news of the day. He is extremely natural and charming, wise cracks regularly and mercilessly mocks his opponent. His practiced one liners are relentlessly optimistic, painting a positive vision of an America recovering economically from the lockdowns and he is encyclopedic in his reporting of his achievements in office. He paints a dystopian and dark vision of life under Biden – Harris and characteristically exaggerates like the showman he is (these statements will be described by the army of fact checkers later as more Trump lies). I will give more impressions at the end.
• The crowd was raucous and loud and interspersed his speech with chants of; U – S – A, 4 more years, Drain The Swamp, We Love You, CNN Sucks and one Lock Him Up.

Other speakers

The additional speakers are seamlessly woven in and each gave very short maybe 1 – 2 minute rousing stump speeches that were actually very impressive. They were:

Senator Martha McSally

McSally attempted to win the Senate seat left vacant by the retirement of Jeff Flake in 2018 and was just beaten by a moderate sounding Democrat Congresswoman called Krysten Sinema. McSally had fought a weak and poorly organised campaign. Governor Ducey appointed McSally to fill the vacant position left by the death of John McCain, but AZ electoral law requires any appointed Senator to face the electorate at the next election and not in the customary Senate six year term. In 2020 she faces former astronaut Mark Kelley, husband to former Tucson Congresswoman Gabby Gifford who was shot in 2011. It has been a very tough campaign against a high profile well-funded opponent and indeed backing McSally was probably the main reason for Trump’s visit to Phoenix. Her speech was a barnstorming summary of her versus her liberal opponent and she has been a full throated and never hesitant supporter of Trump.

Senator Rand Paul

Maverick Kentucky and prominent libertarian Senator Rand Paul took some time to become a strong Trump advocate but praised Trump for ending the USA’s “endless wars” and for supporting criminal justice reform. He castigated Obama for not supporting this reform that has seen mostly blacks incarcerated for low level drug crimes released early. Paul gave a full throated libertarian defense of Trump. In 2016 many libertarians, suspicious of Trump given his prior liberal proclivities in New York City, supported the quixotic campaign of Evan McMullin.

Senator Mike Lee

As a Senator from Utah, Lee is from the conservative, law and order side of the party and he was a fascinating choice as he publicly backed fellow Utah Mormon Evan McMullin in 2016 mostly because he saw Trump as unlikely to be a conservative.  Lee speaks fluent Spanish and spoke for a few minutes in Spanish directly to the Latino audience members extolling Trump’s achievements in the Hispanic community and appealing to the Catholic views on abortion strongly endorsed by Trump and for his successful appointment of Catholic Amy Coney Barrett to the Supreme Court. He was received rapturously. He spoke specifically to Protestant and Evangelicals about his Christian faith and Trump’s adherence to broad pro-life Christian principles and then spoke to fellow Mormons who voted for McMullin because of the Trump’s moral failings flirting with Biden and invoked a hero from their culture likening him to Trump. McMullin had an outsized appeal to the substantial minority LDS population in the East Valley of Phoenix and the rural north east of the state.

Nigel Farage

Farage has been a long time friend of Trump’s and gave a very powerful globally focused eulogy to his friend in his characteristic charismatic way that saw him be the driver of Brexit in the UK. He has the knack of succinctly and powerfully summing up Trump’s virtues.

Conclusions and thoughts

• Trump appeared to be much younger looking and trimmer in person. I suspect he lost weight during his bout with Covid. He oozed self-confidence and charisma and worked the crowd perfectly. He seemed relaxed and effortless, showing no visible signs of fatigue despite his most punishing schedule of rallies especially considering his age.
• The Republican campaign operation, as visible at this rally, was slick and consummately professional.
• Americans are patriotic and really respond to appeals to patriotism. The whole MAGA thing is an anathema to almost all other nations but Americans, raised on the founding story of uniqueness and greatness, seem to respond more to Presidents who tap into that cultural vein. His critics will call it populism and nationalism but for middle America, Trump strikes many pitch perfect notes.
• US elections involve the expenditure of eye popping sums that to us kiwis seem almost incomprehensible. A rally like this is a window into the sheer vast scale of a US Presidential election campaign.
• The rallies serve an important purpose above the more obvious ones like rallying the base, supporting down ballot candidates, and maintaining the candidate’s message momentum. The GOP detailed the research the campaign garnered from the rally sign ups and these are figures that do fluctuate from rally location to location and the figures are startling. 15% of attendees were Democrats and 30% were unaffiliated first time voters or voters who never voted in 2016 so will never show up in a Likely voter screen during polling. That means that almost 50% of Trump rally attendees are persuadable people. Based on an average attendance of 20,000 (many are more) that’s almost 10,000 potential new voters per rally. Assuming Trump seals the deal with only half that number, that’s 5,000 new votes he picks up per rally at a minimum. He will finish the race at 70 rallies so that’s 350,000 new voters, the vast bulk of which are in Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Carolina, and Arizona as he has made only single visits to Nevada, New Hampshire, Nebraska, and Iowa. That is more than his total winning margin in FL, WI, MI, and PA in 2016 so there is a steely electoral vote calculation in all the enormous cost and effort.

The coronavirus thrust the world and America into such a tumultuous and uncertain electoral environment, I would be foolish to make a prediction as to who will win but the atmosphere and electricity at this rally and the demeanor of Trump did not have the look and feel of a losing campaign. If the mainstream polls are out by the same margin they were in 2016 then Trump wins this running away. If they are accurate, then these rallies will be his last dramatic hurrah. Roll on November 3!

Stuff reports:

For the first time over 20,000 households are on the Government’s waitlist for public housing.

By the end of August 20,385 eligible households were on the waitlist for state or social housing, with over 18,000 ranked as “priority A” – the most needy.

This compared to 19,438 the month before and 13,167 in August 2019. The waitlist has more than trebled since 2017.

It has increased by 349% since Labour took office.

Stuff reports:

The Electoral Commission has ordered the Labour Party to declare the cheap rent it pays for its office in Petone as a donation. …

Electoral Commission rules, published in the commission’s candidate’s handbook, say that goods and services received at a discounted rate are treated as donations.

The commission has said that the rule applies in this case, and the rent subsidy must now be declared as a donation.

This has been the law for well over a decade. Labour shouldn’t need an Electoral Commission ruling to do the right thing and disclose the sweetheart deal.

The Labour Party has also been making a healthy profit of the electorate office. Stuff also revealed that it had recently been subletting the office to the local Labour MP for $6000.

Parliamentary Service pays the rent for MPs, meaning it pays the Labour Party $6000 of which $1500 is passed on to the NZPFU in rent, with Labour pocketing the difference.

Parliament’s rules allow such subletting arrangements. For the purpose of Parliament, the party is just another commercial property company renting office space to an MP.

It’s a clear conflict of interest. The Labour Party is making a huge profit by subletting it to their own MP, so they can use the money from the taxpayer to fund her campaign.

The Stuff story on Labour’s plans to repeal the three strikes law is a great example of an unbalanced story. Here’s what struck me about it:

• The main example used from the thousands who have had one or more strikes, is the one about the guy given seven years for grabbing a prison guard’s bottom. No examples about serious rapists and bashers who are in prison for longer due to it
• The other example just quotes a Judge saying he thought the sentence as too long, and omits that the person has six convictions for serious violent or sexual offending
• Quotes two opponents of the law, and only David Seymour in defence. No attempt presumably for comment from Sensible Sentencing Trust
• Ignores data that fewer violent offenders have gone on to reoffend since three strikes came into force

Stuff reports:

Destiny Church co-founder Hannah Tamaki says she fulfilled her goal of pushing out Labour MP Tāmati Coffey from Māori seat Waiariki – even if she didn’t win.

It comes as numbers show Labour lost votes to fringe parties in its only losing seat on election night.

Waiariki was won by the Māori Party’s Rawiri Waititi, the party’s only win on the night, although this could be overturned once the special votes are released.

But Waititi did not dramatically increase the Māori Party’s share of the vote in the seat from 2017. In the end it was Tamaki, the Vision NZ candidate, and parties such as Advance NZ that caught the votes – potentially ending Coffey’s hold on the electorate.

The provisional results for the electorate vote are:

1. Maori Party 46.5%
2. Labour 44.5%
3. Vision NZ 4.1%
4. Independent 2.6%
5. Outdoors 1.5%
6. New Conservative 0.8%

What we don’t know is where the votes for the four minor candidates would have gone if they hadn’t stood.

Stuff reports:

Wellingtonians have overwhelmingly backed a radical plan to remove cars from Golden Mile, significantly widen footpaths and turn several side streets in Wellington’s inner city into pedestrian-only zones.

Almost 2000 people gave feedback on three options for proposed changes to Wellington’s Golden Mile, which runs from 1.5 miles from the Beehive to the end of Courtenay Place.

The vast majority supported the “transform” option, the most radical of the three options to reform Wellington’s main shopping and entertainment area. The plan would cost up to $80 million and remove up to 200 car parks between Wellington Railway Station and Kent/Cambridge Terrace. …

The “transform” option would remove all public traffic from the Golden Mile, create bus-only lanes along the entire stretch, and widen footpaths by as much as 75 per cent.

The plan proposes pedestrianising the end of almost every side street which connects on to the Golden Mile, including Tory Street, Lower Cuba Street, and areas surrounding Midland Park on Lambton Quay. Service vehicles would still be able to access the streets when required.

It would also create a shared zone beside the footpath for cycling and electric scooters along Lambton Quay.

Some bus stops along the route would be closed or moved to reduce bus congestion the streets. New, larger bus stops would be built, separated from the main footpath area.

It’s a step in the right direction. But I would go further and turn Lambton Quay into a pedestrian only mall with no vehicles at all. Have cafes and bars spilling onto the street. Have pop up shops in the middle etc.

Stuff reports:

Menéndez March worked as an anti-poverty activist with Auckland Action Against Poverty prior to coming to Parliament.

“If people want to call me a Marxist because I raise the issue that a few people own a lot of homes at the expense of our homeless community and employers don’t pay fair wages – so be it,” Menéndez March said.

He said Marx had a “useful way of viewing the world” and he had no issue with being described as one.

If someone has no issue with being described as a Marxist, then it is a safe conclusion they are a Marxist.

It is interesting that Marxism has killed as many (or more) people as fascism, yet the media treat them so differently.

Imagine if a NZ MP said they had no issue with being described as a fascist!

I also note that Menendez March is trying to paint any criticism of him as being due to his ethnicity or sexual orientation. But he is polarising on the left, as well as the right. Take this tweet from a former Green staffer:

I don’t think anyone seriously suggests Clint has a negative view of Menendez March because he is Mexican or gay.

Stuff reports:

Sir Ian Athfield can rest in peace. The Nikau palms are safe, and so is his building.

In what Mayor Andy Foster called a “great news day” for Wellington, its city council on Wednesday voted unanimously to fix the Central Library designed by the late, revered architect, at a cost of $179 million.

In doing so, they turned their backs on the public’s preferred option of a new build, estimated to cost $180m.

I’ll be pleasantly surprised if it costs $180 million.

They said the town hall rebuild would cost $43 million. It now is estimated to be $112 million.

There is a clear dissonance between those who think Trump is great and those who think he is awful. Those who think Trump is great don’t seem capable of understanding why people might disagree with them, and hence just use labels such as Trump Derangement Syndrome.

But also those who think Trump is awful, often can’t understand why a lot of people do like or even love him.

I am one of those who think Trump is awful, but I understand why others support him. So I thought it would be useful to blog the ten things I most like about Trump. Tomorrow I will do the 10 things I most dislike. Finally on Friday I will blog on what my preferred outcome from the US election is in terms of not just the presidency, but also the Senate and House.

So the ten things I most like about Trump.

1 He will sometimes defy the conventional wisdom

Conventional wisdom is often wise, but more to the point is is always conventional. It is good for a leader to sometimes go against the bureaucracy and so called experts. The best example I can think of is recognising Jerusalem as the capital of Israel.

Every analyst and expert and the entire State Department no doubt said this would be a disaster. That it would lead to years of rioting in the Middle East, and permanently isolate the United States. But Trump did it anyway, and almost nothing happened. There were a few protests for a few weeks, and that was it. There was violence in Gaze (no surprise) but two years later the issue is not an active one.

Note also the law of the United States (passed 374-37 in House and 94-5) in the Senate recognises Jerusalem as the capital of Israel and requires the US Embassy to be located there. It just had never been implemented as Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama had all done repeated six month delay waivers because their officials had told them it would be a disaster to comply. Trump ignore the conventional wisdom and proved it wrong.

Note I am not saying it is good to always defy conventional wisdom (especially on pandemics). But there is no point in having a President who only rubberstamps what officials recommend.

2 Judicial Appointments

Both the quantity and quality of judicial appointments have been awesome. I support the originalist judicial philosophy of Justice Scalia and it has been great to see so many Judges appointed who share that philosophy.

I think Justices Kavanagh and Gorsuch have been good Supreme Court picks. By that I don’t just mean the vote 5-4 with the other Republican appointees. Gorsuch authored an excellent piece on a case about promises made to Native Indians, and rightfully held the Government to account for not keeping their word. And Kavanagh voted in favour of the Manhattan District Attorney being able to access President Trumps’ tax records.

One reason why I think Trump’s picks have been so good, is because he has effectively outsources them to the Federalist Society. Other Presidents have had a history in politics so they often have lawyers they know whom they try to appoint. Bush tried to make his WH Counsel a Supreme Court Associate Justice. Trump has no personal favourites so he just goes along with the Federalist Society which ensures none of his picks will turn out to be David Souters

3) He tries really hard to keep his promises

Many Presidents campaign on one thing and do another. Both Clinton and Obama ran against NAFTA but then supported it in office. Trump ran against NAFTA and insisted on a renegotiation. I disagree with him on the substance, but I like the fact he actually tries to implement what he promised.

He promised to withdraw from the Iran agreement and the Paris agreement and he did. Again I disagree with him, but he kept his word.

4) His instincts are anti-interventionist

The conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan have turned into quagmires. There may have been legitimate reasons at the time, but almost 20 years later it is time they were left to their own devices. Trump is much more cautious about engaging in foreign conflicts than other Presidents – which is good.

However he has shown he will act when a red line is crossed, as happened in Syria with use of chemical weapons.

5) He is more available to the media than any other modern President

He doesn’t just do a couple of press conferences a month, but is constantly doing media interviews, standups etc. Other Presidents tightly scripted their media appearances, but Trump loves talking to the media.

An ABC White House reporter once remarked he had more opportunities in two weeks to ask Trump questions than he had in two years with Obama.

6) He delivered large tax cuts

He dropped the 15% tax rate to 12%, the 25% rate to 22%, the 28% rate to 24%, the 33% rate to 32% and the 40% rate to 37%. Also doubled the child tax credit.

7) He is reasonably open about his motives

Most politicians spend their careers coming up with acceptable justifications for what they want to do. Trump often tells it straight.

He admitted he sacked Comey because of the Russia investigation. He says he doesn’t want liners with Covid passengers to dock as it will make US stats look worse.

Often his staff will spend days or weeks pushing an official line, and then Trump will contradict it. I might not like why he does these things, but at least he is upfront about it. And I’m not saying he doesn’t dissemble like other politicians do. But they are more disciplined at it, while Trump often lets the truth slip out.

8) He is sceptical of regulations

Not all regulations are bad, but neither are all of them good. Governments often crush businesses with regulation after regulation, with little understanding of the cumulative weight of them. Trump’s administration has rolled back regulations. I’m sure I disagree with some of the ones he got rid of, but I approve of the overall direction of travel.

9) Middle East peace deals

We now have three Muslim majority countries that have signed peace deals with Israel. Historic.

10) He is a cultural warrior against the woke cancel culture

There is a culture war. On one side they want to relabel mothers as birthing parents, change the founding of the US from 1776 to 1619, make people pay reparations for something that ended 155 years ago, silence conservative voices on campus and have all of society based on intersectional theory.

Many politicians, even on the right, just silently acquiesce to this.

Trump is a warrior against wokism, cancel culture and political correctness. People feel he is the only one in their corner, fighting for them. This is a major part of his appeal – he is a fighter, willing to stand up to the other side. He won’t acquiese.

So they’re my ten good things about Trump. I’d encourage people in comments to list others – even if like me you are not a Trump fan overall.

As I said tomorrow I’ll do the ten worst things about Trump, in my view. Keep any negative comments for that thread.

Newsroom reports:

Cabinet was repeatedly told prior to the August outbreak that the regular asymptomatic testing of all border-facing workers was still being rolled out, despite ministers claiming ignorance, Marc Daalder reports

This is a polite way of saying Ministers lied.

At the time, Jacinda Ardern and Health Minister Chris Hipkins insisted they had been told that testing was further along than it in fact was.

“It has not been happening at the rates that, A, we have asked for, and B, we were told was happening,” Hipkins said.

“When we ask as a Cabinet for something to happen, we expect it to happen. So of course that has not met our expectations. No one of course said to any point – that I recall – that what we asked for was not happening,” Ardern said.

But documents proactively released by the Government reveal that isn’t the case. Cabinet was repeatedly told that the border testing was still being rolled out and was never given a date for completion. Cabinet was also provided specific numbers of tests of border-facing workers on a weekly basis.

So Ministers were given exact numbers every single week. They knew not all workers had been tested.

Hipkins’ promised reports began to come in weekly, keeping Cabinet updated on the slow rollout of border testing. Even in the final document, provided to Cabinet the day before the second outbreak of Covid-19 was discovered, officials are clear that weekly testing of all staff had yet to be implemented.

What a pity this information only came out after the election.

Alongside the comments, Cabinet was provided with a breakdown of the number of workers in each cohort and the number who had been tested. Of the 2,000 MIQ staff, just 290 had been tested in the previous week. Of 5,000 Auckland Airport staff, 211 had received a test. At the ports, where 2,100 people were estimated to be eligible for testing, just 12 had been tested in the past seven days.

Yet, just a week later, Ardern told reporters: “No one of course said to any point – that I recall – that what we asked for was not happening.”

So they were told only 12 of 2,100 port workers had been tested in the past week, and it didn’t ring any alarms bells with Ministers.

The level of incompetence really is staggering. Competent Ministers read reports, understand if things are not progressing at the necessary speed, and then make directions to ensure they do.

The Herald reports:

President Donald Trump’s nomination of his Kiwi staffer for the OECD top job has divided New Zealand’s political parties.

Chris Liddell, who was born in Matamata and went to Mt Albert Grammar, has been put forward by Trump to the position of Secretary General of the OECD.

Liddell currently serves as assistant to the president and deputy chief of staff for policy co-ordination at the White House and to help lead America’s Covid-19 response.

The Greens’ foreign affairs spokesperson Golriz Ghahraman said it was “literally dangerous” to back a man who helped lead the States’ Covid-19 response.

“Trumpish anti-science, anti-co-operation, politics have no place in international governance,” she tweeted.

Ghahraman said New Zealand “overwhelmingly” voted in support of the Government’s Covid response which was rejected in the United States and Liddell was “not our values”.

Liddell is also reported to have been involved in the Trump administration’s decision to separate migrant children from their parents.

But National’s foreign affairs spokesperson Simon Bridges said New Zealand should support Liddell for the position because “he’s one of us”.

“It’s in our interest to do so.

“He’s ultimately – and always will be – a boy from Matamata. Having him [at the OECD] means a foot in the door for New Zealand. We’ll have an access we just won’t get if it’s someone from another country.”

Bridges said a lot of people would “confuse” Liddell’s role in Trump’s administration and be dubious of New Zealand supporting him – but said everything he’d seen showed Liddell had his own views.

The Trump administration has taken a hostile approach to multilateral trade.

Bridges said he “would be very surprised” if Liddell, given his Kiwi and professional background, didn’t support free trade and wasn’t in favour of market-based principles.

Nominations for the position are still open and a spokesman for the Prime Minister said the Government would make a decision on who to support when nominations closed.

I am no fan of Trump, but I am equally not a fan of the argument that we should not support Chris Liddell because he works for Trump.

Let’s think about that argument, made by the Greens. It is that someone isn’t suitable for senior office if they have worked for a politician we disapprove of.

Tony Blair was hated by many on the left. He is still despised by most UK Labour people today. They see him as a war criminal or worse.

So by Green Party logic, someone who worked for Tony Blair should be deemed unsuitable for high office.

Now as it happens Jacinda Ardern worked for Tony Blair!

France 24 reports:

After teacher Samuel Paty’s gruesome murder by a Chechen extremist in the name of avenging the Prophet Mohamed, Macron vowed that France would never give up cartoons such as those which in 2015 triggered a deadly attack on the Charlie Hebdo satirical magazine and which Paty showed to his class.

Macron hailed Paty as a “hero” for representing the secular, free-thinking values of the French republic, which include a long-cherished right to mock religion.

“He was killed because Islamists want to take our future,” Macron said at a memorial for Paty. “They will never have it.”

Several suspected Islamic radicals have been arrested in dozens of raids since the murder, and about 50 organisations with alleged links to such individuals have been earmarked for closure by the government.

Earlier this month, Macron unveiled a plan to defend France’s secular values against a trend of “Islamist separatism”, and described Islam as a religion “in crisis”.

France has in recent years been forced to take a hard look at its core values, perceived by many to be threatened by Islam following a string of jihadist attacks that have killed over 240 people since 2015.

No one should have to fear for their life because they showed a cartoon to a class.

Macron is right to defend the seperation of religion and state.

AP reports:

Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed to the Supreme Court late Monday by a deeply divided Senate, Republicans overpowering Democrats to install President Donald Trump’s nominee days before the election and secure a likely conservative court majority for years to come.

Trump’s choice to fill the vacancy of the late liberal icon Ruth Bader Ginsburg potentially opens a new era of rulings on abortion, the Affordable Care Act and even his own election. Democrats were unable to stop the outcome, Trump’s third justice on the court, as Republicans race to reshape the judiciary.

Barrett is 48, and her lifetime appointment as the 115th justice will solidify the court’s rightward tilt.

It’s very rare for a President to get to appoint three Supreme Court Justices in one term. Here’s the list of appointments by terms:

• Trump 1 – Barrett, Gorsuch, Kagan
• Obama 2 – none
• Obama 1 – Sotomayor, Kagan
• Bush GW 2 – Roberts, Aliot
• Bush GW 1 – none
• Clinton 2 – none
• Clinton 1 – Ginsburg, Breyer
• Bush GHW – Souter, Thomas
• Reagan 2 – Rehnquist, Scalia, Kennedy
• Reagan 1 – O’Connor
• Carter – none
• Ford – Stevens
• Nixon 2 – none
• Nixon 1 – Burger, Blackmum, Powell, Rehnquist

Soonly Nixon for to appoint more in one term.

A very good article at Stuff looking at the successful ACT campaign and the demise of NZ First. The two are somewhat linked.

Stuff reports:

A paedophile was moved out of jail into a Wellington home with 62 children in the immediate neighbourhood, a school down the road, and one of his victims nearby.

The situation has left the Parole Board “perplexed” about why Probation – part of the Department of Corrections – did not seek nor provide crucial advice until weeks after Aaron Paul Laurence was released from prison to a house in the Wellington suburb of Newtown.

Laurence, who has now changed his name to Aaron Paul Castle and was previously known around Wellington as Lorry Haka, was recently moved to a new, undisclosed, address in an industrial area, largely due to being near so many children near the Newtown house.

His original Parole Board decision, which led to his September 1 release, said he was deemed at “high risk” of reoffending. He was sentenced in 2013 for 65 offences, including 20 charges of performing an indecent act on a boy under 12.

In one case he videoed himself sexually violating young boys, one aged between 5 and 8, while they slept.

He was sentenced in 2013 to 12 years and nine months jail. The Parole Board let him out after seven years and six months. That is only 58% through his sentence. Bow you could understand that if he was deemed at a very low risk of reoffending. But the advice was he was on the high end of reoffending risk.

But it will be even worse soon. Almost certainly his original offending would have got him a first strike. So if he does reoffend, then he would lose parole eligibility. But Labour is going to change the law so he would remain eligible for parole, so he could get early release again – creating more victims.

I put together this table of presiding officers of Parliament for the MMP era to show the normal mix of parties. The first order of business for the new Parliament will be to elect a Speaker and soon after that a Deputy Speaker and two Assistant Speakers.

The Speaker has always been from the same party as the Prime Minister under MMP. From 1994 to 1996 Labour’s Peter Tapsell was Speaker under a National Government, but that is mainly because back then the party supplying the Speaker lost a vote in the House, and National had a very slim majority.

There is no doubt the Speaker will be from Labour and no real doubt the Speaker will be Trevor Mallard. He’s done enough baby sitting of Neve to guarantee it 🙂

The Deputy Speaker is usually from the Government also, but there has been three exceptions. Anne Tolley was Deputy was 2017 to 2020 and Clem Simich Deputy from 2005 to 2008. Tolley was Deputy as National was the largest party in Parliament, so it was thought appropriate to have a National Deputy Speaker. I think the same rationale may have applied to Simich from 2005 to 2008. The National opposition was only two seats short of Labour.

The one that is a mystery to me is Geoff Braybrooke being Deputy Speaker in 1998 and 1999. Labour only got 28% of the vote in 1996. It might just have been a reflection on him personally that he was well liked and not particularly partisan.

I do not expect the Deputy Speaker to be from National this time. They only will have 33 to 35 MPs out of 120. So I expect Labour to supply the Deputy Speaker. The current Assistant Speaker, Adrian Rurawhe would seem the most logical choice.

Of the two Assistant Speakers, National will supply one. There has never been a situation under MMP where all four presiding officers are from the Government. The other will be Labour. You could have a minor party MP be an Assistant Speaker but generally smaller parties don’t want to lose an MP to be a presiding officer.

So who might be the Assistant Speakers?

Whips often make good presiding officers as they know standing officers. But Michael Wood should become an Minister and Kieran McAnulty may replace him as Senior Whip. Third Whip Kiri Allan has a good chance of being a Minister also.

So a second term MP such as Willow-Jean Prime or Jo Luxton is likely.

On National’s side, I would have though Tim Macindoe would be a good Assistant Speaker but he is sadly gone. Nick Smith certainly has the knowledge to do it, but may not want to.

The Senior Whip for National is Barbara Kuriger and my guess is she might stay there or take a senior portfolio. Junior Whip Matt Doocey is possible, as is Tim van de Molen (third whip).

Newshub reports:

On Monday morning, Ross announced Te Kahika Jr had decided to step away from Advance NZ, telling Newshub his former co-leader “wants to do his own thing” and that the decision had been swift.

In a statement sent to media on Monday afternoon, the NZPP confirmed the decision.

It said it would now be “getting back to doing what we do best”, which it says is “researching topics that the Government is not transparent about”.

What they do best is lying, conning people out of money, and spreading conspiracy theories.

In an outlandish video posted to social media after the election, Te Kahika Jr claimed the election was “rigged”, and that Advance NZ’s tiny share of the preliminary votes showed it had been “diddled”.

“I’m all okay with not going into Parliament and not winning enough votes – but not [okay] with 1 percent. I’ve been saying all week that if they turn around and say we’ve only got 1 percent then we’ve been diddled,” he said.

“People are waking up very, very quickly to the idea that this Government and this whole system is corrupt – it’s not real.”

It’s a pity there are no consequences for lying like this.

Stats NZ has released the latest population estimates. The estimated growth in each region over the last two years, in descending order is:

1. Bay of Plenty 5.1%
2. Northland 4.7%
3. Tasman 4.4%
4. Waikato 4.4%
5. Otago 4.4%
6. Auckland 3.8%
7. Canterbury 3.7%
8. Nelson 3.6%
9. Hawke’s Bay 3.6%
10. Marlborough 3.1%
11. Wellington 3.1%
12. Taranaki 2.8%
13. Manawatu-Whanganui 2.7%
14. Gisborne 2.4%
15. Southland 2.1%
16. West Coast 0.0%

By TLA, the top five growing are:

1. Queenstown-Lakes 11.5%
2. Chatham Islands 10.1%
3. Selwyn 10.1%
4. Central Otago 7.7%
5. Tauranga 6.5%

So 184,000 more people living in NZ than two years ago. 80% approx from migration and 20% through natural increases (births).

Now updated for the next three year term. They may have dumped their target, but that won’t stop us reminding people of it.

At August 2020 there were 602 Kiwibuild houses. They’d promised over 7,500 by then. By June 2023, 40,000 were promised so they have under three years to do another 39,400!