Chris Trotter writes:

Labour’s flagship housing policy promising first-home-buyers 100,000 affordable dwellings by 2028, is a dog. It started out as a political fix and has yet to mature into coherent policy. Nowhere are Labour’s ambitions for KiwiBuild matched by the resources needed to fulfil them. Worst of all, the people most in need of 100,000 extra dwellings – beneficiaries and the working poor – are not the scheme’s targets. KiwiBuild is a perverse mixture of corporate and middle-class welfare, offering a handsome subsidy to builders and a generous hand-up to young professionals.

A great summary.

Twyford is willing to buy Labour’s promised houses straight off the property developers’ plans. At a stroke, bad financial bets are transformed into sure things. Phil’s happy. The developers are happy. The banks are happy. And the winners of KiwiBuild ballots are over the moon.

About the only people who aren’t happy are those who believe that publicly funded social interventions on the scale of KiwiBuild should be directed first to those most in need. Tragically, however, the Coalition Government is selling the poor a pup.

Kiwibuild is all about helping get votes for Labour, not helping those who most need housing assistance.

More and more info is coming out about Karel Sroubek, whom Labour gifted residency to. Here’s what we now know:

1. Entered NZ with false passport in 2003
2. Arrested with two Hells Angels on aggravated robbery, kidnapping and blackmail charges in 2011, but acquitted
3. Found guilty of passport fraud in 2011
4. Arrested in 2011 for manufacturing drugs. Convicted but later overturned
5. Arrested in 2014 for importing drugs. Jail sentence of 69 months.
6. Parole Board in 2018 refused parole, finding him manifestly untruthful
7. Interpol has an arrest warrant for him, for charges in Czech Republic of disorderly conduct, damaging of another’s property and attack of an law enforcement officer
8. Twice traveled to Czech Republic in 2009, despite claiming he fears for his life if deported there
9. His ex-partner is seeking a restraining order against him

Not only did Lees-Galloway not deport him, but he gave him permanent residency!

The Herald reports:

Auckland-based cryptocurrency startup Vimba says it has landed a $315,000 grant from Crown agency Callaghan Innovation.

“This is a truly significant investment from Callaghan Innovation and a real show of faith in the future of this very exciting asset class,” Vimba CEO Sam Blackmore says.

Vimba’s platform lets its customers save and trade bitcoins.

Good God. Why not just burn some hundred dollar notes.

The Minister (and Associate) of Immigration has discretion in immigration matters. This is generally a good thing as the complexity of individual cases means a non negotiable enforcement of the rules can lead to some unfair outcomes.

There are cases where someone may have lived here for 15 or 20 years, built a business, started a family, and it transpires their paperwork wasn’t in order.

Ministers generally get three types of cases:

1. Easy call to allow to stay
2. Border line calls
3. Easy call to not allow to stay

Now with border line calls, reasonable people may disagree. Sometimes the applicant may get the benefit of the doubt as the impact on NZ by allowing them to stay is minor and the impact on their family by making them leave is major.

The Karel Sroubek case was not a border line call. It may have been when his use of a fake identity was first detected. At that stage he had no criminal record or associations and was running a successful business.

But when Lees-Galloway considered his application he was a convicted criminal, serving a five year term for drug dealing. He was a known gang associate and had been charged twice before for offences.

The Parole Board said he was a liar and the Court of Appeal pretty much said the same also.

This was an easy “no”.

Aspects which make the Minister’s decision even worse are:

• Sroubek it seems didn’t even apply for residency. He just asked not to be deported. For some reason the Minister threw in permanent residency without even being asked!
• The officials (I understand) did not recommend Sroubek be allowed to stay. So this was the Minister’s independent decision.
• He accepted Sroubek’s version of events without asking for any proof or verification. Did he read or ask for the Parole Board decision? the Court of Appeal ruling? Did he ask officials to check if he had travelled back to the Czech Republic (it now emerges he has twice)

This was never a border line call. You may give the benefit of the doubt to an applicant when they have a clean record. But when someone has a serious criminal record, you don’t give them the benefit of the doubt. Their case has to be over whelming for you to consider not deporting them, let alone gifting them residency.

The approval rating of the incumbent US president has been found to have a significant impact on how people vote in mid term elections. We hear a lot about how low Trump’s rating has been. But the story is not quite that simple. Trump has a low average rating, but his current rating is not far from other US Presidents at the same stage. Let’s look at the last foru presidents:

Trump is at the bottom. He has never been above 50%. He came in under 50% and has stayed there. His ratings have in fact not changed much.

The top line is George W Bush. He was slightly over 50% and then 9/11 had a rallying effect and he shot up to 90% and by the mid terms was still over 65%.

The next line is Obama. Started over 60% but kept declining and at mid terms was 44%, the same as Trump today.

Clinton started in the high 50s, went down and up and down again and at mid terms was around 46%.

So Trump is at where Obama and Clinton were.

Let’s look at the three before that:

The green line is Bush 41. He was around 55% at the mid terms. It was the next two years he went down as economy tanked.

Reagan came in on 51% and went up to 68%. He then declined until at 42% at the mid terms.

Carter came in at 66%, made 75% and then declined, He was at 49% at his mid terms.

So Trump’s rating is not historically low. His average rating is low because he never had a honeymoon.

Still highly likely to lose the House, in line with most mid term downswings. Five Thirty Eight have only a 15% chance they retain control. But for the Senate a 86% chance of keeping a majority.

Stuff reports:

A couple say they face going broke after the council told them to remove all but 12 chairs inside their cafe – or stop operating.  .

Jimmy Fairweather, 34, and Katie Funnell, 28,  bought the Black Rabbit Kitchen & Bar in Bannockburn, on the outskirts of Cromwell in Central Otago, a year ago. 

Fairweather said their dream had turned into a nightmare.

Three days before Labour Weekend the Central Otago District Council emailed the couple, co-owner Matt Crimp, and their landlord, to say they were operating outside the bounds of their resource consent by having seating for more than 12 people inside, and more than 12 people outside.

What a mad restriction? Maximum seating inside for 12 people? What public good is served by such a restriction?

Council staff arrived on Friday morning to check the chairs had been removed, and warned they would be monitored over the weekend. 

Central otago ratepayers paying for them to check no more than 12 chairs are out!

When they were buying the business, no-one disclosed there was a limit of 12 seats inside, he said. Had they known, they would not have gone through with the purchase.

It would be near impossible to be profitable with that restriction.

The couple, who are 30 weeks pregnant with their first child, have turned hordes of customers away, and looked on with embarrassment as patrons stared at chair-less tables. Some customers left. Others chose to stand. Some sat on the ground.

“I am wild about it. It’s ridiculous. All the tables that are here now were here before, and there was seating for about 40 inside and 40 outside when we bought the place.”

The only limit should be based on how many one can comfortably fit in.

More than 2000 people had signed a petition started by a patron in support of the cafe, he said.

“The council have discretion in their enforcement. Why can’t CODC give them a few months to fix the consent, have their baby and give them a fighting chance a keeping the business alive?” 

Stuff asked the council for comment on Friday, but it did not respond. However on October 21, council executive manager of planning and environment Louise van der Voort emailed the couple. She said the petition and “misinformation” about the consent and the position of the neighbours could “antagonise neighbours” and affect their new consent application.

And now the Council is trying to heavy them.

MYOB released:

New Zealand’s small businesses are sounding the alarm as confidence drops sharply in both the economy and their own enterprises, driven by falling revenue and a range of growing pressures.

More than half (53 percent) of the SME business operators surveyed in the latest MYOB Business Monitor Snapshot believe New Zealand’s economy will decline over the next 12 months, with nearly a fifth expecting the economy to contract sharply. Just 27 percent are expecting an improvement in the local economy in 2019.

The response is a significant reversal in confidence from just prior to the 2017 election, when 42 percent of business owners were confident the economy would improve, while 23 per cent predicted a decline.

From +19% to -26%!

Over a quarter (26 percent) of business operators state that their revenue had fallen over the last 12 months, while just 23 per cent saw revenue rise. Forty-seven per cent said their revenue had remained static over the last year. This is the first time since mid-2011 that more businesses have reported revenue falls than gains, and again marks an abrupt turnaround from the previous survey in September 2017, when 37 percent saw their annual revenue increase and just 18 percent reported a fall.

So this is about actual revenue not just sentiment.

by John Stringer

Been sent a copy of the submission by Barry Brill. He’s a former Under-Secretary of Energy and a former president of both the New Zealand Manufacturers Federation and the Electricity Supply Association. So he knows a bit about this area.

Some extracts:

• The apparent purpose of the Bill is to expel the future mining of oil and gas from the New Zealand region. That outcome would contribute nothing to the international goal of reducing global CO2 emissions.
• Everybody interested in climate change policy is familiar with the problem of “carbon leakage”. Every tonne of product that is displaced from New Zealand is certain to mean an additional tonne being produced elsewhere in the world. That substitute source may well have much looser standards against flaring, fugitive gas, spills, etc than New Zealand. The relocation cannot produce any environmental upside but can readily produce downsides.
• Unless and until the industrialised world abandons hydrocarbon fuels, New Zealand will continue to use gas for much of its industrial heat as well as for firming the electricity system. If that gas cannot be produced here and piped through the existing network, it will have to be shipped in the form of LNG. The inherent inefficiency of that transport system will add significantly to the world’s CO2 emissions. Existing assets will be stranded while new resources are unnecessarily redirected.
• Only yesterday, the CEO and Chair of Genesis Energy explained that this Bill would defeat their company’s earlier commitment to remove coal by 2030. In continuing its mission of preventing blackouts in dry years, the Huntly station will have to burn coal or import LNG – if this Bill is passed.
• The policy was apparently agreed at a confidential meeting of three MPs, and then announced. The three authors were unaware that their covert plan was (a) illegal and unenforceable and (b) financially and environmentally disastrous – because all the normal protections for bureaucratic advice were by- passed. No formal consultation was undertaken with the industry or anybody else. The plan was not considered by the cabinet or any other constitutional organ of government. This was the worst example of autocratic and unaccountable governing since the days of “King Dick” Seddon.

• The Minister has further relayed the misinformation that “the world is moving away from fossil fuels”.  Thousands of highly-qualified analysts and policy advisers make a living from studying and projecting the demand curves for oil and gas. Their consensus view is reflected in the official projections of the International Energy Agency (IEA) in Paris, which has just reiterated its previous official advice that demand is expected to RISE by 2040.
• The Minister also relies upon her impression that MBIE “does not take into account the fast pace at which China and India are cutting emissions”. This foundational belief contrasts strongly with what last week’s Financial Times reported: China’s carbon emissions are on track to rise at their fastest pace in more than seven years during 2018, casting further doubt on the ability of the Paris climate change agreement to curb dangerous greenhouse gas increases, according to a Greenpeace analysis based on Beijing’s own data.

So who do we believe – Megan Woods or the thousands of professional analysts and advisors?

Been sent a copy of the form that all new board members in NZ First have to sign. It shows their paranoia as members have to sign a legal agreement that they can’t get involved in any other political party until three months after the next election.

Guess they are not big on trust.

Board Confidence by David Farrar on Scribd

Mike Hosking writes:

I think we can fairly safely conclude that when you hide behind a pillar on your way to the house so you can avoid the media, you know you’re not having a good week.

And so it was with Iain Lees-Galloway yesterday at Parliament, who has ended up exactly where we said he would, and we said it on Monday.

The urgent review is underway as it was always going to be. The information that’s triggered the review is not new – it’s contradictory.

In other words the info was always out there, and the Government got stitched up, as we said they had been. Iain Lees-Galloway has had so much wool pulled over his eyes you could call him Shrek.

That’s a great analogy. Shrek.

We should all refer to him as Minister Shrek in future. Let it be his new nickname for now and into the future.

The UK version of a charter school is a free school. Mark Lehain looks at how they have gone in the UK:

Yesterday’s GSCE results make fine reading for free school advocates. For the second year running, free schools have come out on top of the tables, and this time they’ve absolutely smashed it.

Looking at the Progress 8 scores – a key assessment measure that captures the progress pupils make from the end of primary school to their GCSEs – free schools were the top performing type of state school, with an average score of 0.24. In layman’s terms this means that their students typically achieved roughly a quarter of a grade higher than expected in each subject.

That’s a huge difference.

Some sceptics have claimed that free schools don’t offer value for money, but these stunning outcomes have been achieved at schools that were, on average, 29 per cent cheaper to build than previous school building programmes. Once opened, free schools receive the same per-pupil funding as any other school, and they’re clearly using it well.

Just like NZ. The difference is the funding flexibility.

Stuff reported:

NZTA regional relationships director Emma Speight said the new two-lane highway would co-exist with the existing State Highway 1 route, and could be extended to four lanes if there was enough demand.

It will connect to the south with the Peka Peka to Ōtaki highway, which is under construction, and the recently-opened Kāpiti expressway between Mackays and Peka Peka.

This is a bad decision. When a lour lane expressway turns into a two-lane highway you get huge delays as they merge.

The spin from the Minister is hilarious:

All the routes will receive four lanes of capacity in total, when combining the improved existing highways with the addition of new two lane highways and urgent safety improvements.

Twyford has outdone himself. He claims the routes have four lanes of capacity if you include two totally separate roads.

This is like claiming there are four lanes of capacity between Wellington and Auckland as there are two on SH1 and two on SH2.

The difference between two and four lanes is immense.

A two lane road means all traffic travels at the speed of the slowest car. A four land road means one lane of traffic can flow at the speed limit.

Stuff reports:

New Zealand’s oil industry is urging the Government not to rush through a law change which the Prime Minister says is being passed quickly to allow new oil exploration permits to be offered. …

“We are giving certainty to those who currently hold permits and those who would be seeking an onshore block offer that we will honour the commitments around those permits,” Ardern said, dismissing claims that there may be a lack of interest given uncertainty created by the decision.

“Actually, what we are looking at here is giving greater certainty, rather than year on year, around the onshore offers, than they otherwise would have,” she said. 

This is a new level of spin.

She bans an entire industry giving it no future and lauds it as offering greater or complete certainty.

This is like a doctor telling a patient “Good news, we have complete certainty in your diagnosis. You’re going to be dead in six week”

The ODT reports:

Dunedin Mayor Dave Cull has taken another swipe at the country’s approach to local alcohol policies, saying the system is ”a farce” that puts commercial interests before communities.

He was commenting as councillors received an annual report from the Dunedin District Licensing Committee, covering its work for the year to June.

The report noted the council’s watered-down local alcohol policy has been referred back to the Alcohol Regulatory and Licensing Authority (ARLA) for approval.

The policy was stripped of key changes earlier this year after being successfully appealed by a group including supermarket chains and liquor stores, leaving only uncontested aspects of the policy to be rolled out in Dunedin.

Mr Cull, speaking at yesterday’s meeting, said he wanted to reiterate the approach to local alcohol policies (LAPs) nationally effectively put commercial interests ahead of community wellbeing.

The burden of proof was on councils to prove their policies would reduce alcohol-related harm, despite an earlier royal commission having already identified the factors exacerbating that harm, he said.

What Cull doesn’t like is the law requires that little thing called evidence. He thinks Councils should have the power to impose whatever restrictions the politicians like, regardless of evidence.

If you want to stop mums or dads being able to buy a bottle of wine at a supermarket at 9.30 pm while they do their weekly groceries shop, you have to have evidence that being able to buy wine from a supermarket at that time causes harm.

Councils have lost most of the appeals because either to Councillors or staff have ignored the law. They’re blaming the law, but they should blame themselves.

Stuff reports:

Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway will review the case of a drug smuggler who was granted residency while serving jail time after “new information”.

Karel Sroubkek had been handed an unprecedented get-out-of-jail card in getting residency, instead of being deported after serving his prison sentence.

Immigration Minister Iain Lees-Galloway made the special decision, even though the 37-year-old Czech national came to New Zealand on a false passport and is now serving time in Auckland South prison for importing drugs with a street value of $375,000. …

However, Newstalk ZB reported that Sroubek’s had already been back to the Czech Republic – which would mean his claim he’d be hunted down if he returned to his home country doesn’t ring true.

On Wednesday, Lees-Galloway told Parliament that shortly before he arrived at Question Time he had become aware that “information may exist that appears on the face of it to directly contradict information that I used and relied upon to make that decision.

“I am now taking advice on my options and need to consider the veracity or the new information that has been made available to me.”

So the Minister didn’t even try to verify the claims of the convicted criminal. He just believed him despite the Parole Board just weeks ago saying he was a liar.

The PM and Deputy PM both backed him, and said it was the right call.

They have the entire Government behind them and they never thought to verify his claims. Instead it took the media to do it.

Muppets!

Whoops missed this gem:

Lees-Galloway tried to avoid reporters on the way into House on Wednesday by hiding behind a pillar for several minutes before telling them he was late to Question Time and would not talk to them till after.

A Minister of the Crown hid behind a pillar for several minutes to try and avoid the media! What a clown.

A good op ed by NZ First MP Darroch Ball:

Very shortly Palmerston North will be hosting the Defence Industry Association’s annual conference.

We have been hearing it called a “weapons conference” and some of the employers labelled “merchants of death”.

But, unfortunately, the truth is a little inconvenient for some and while we support the right to protest there is an obligation to tell the whole truth.

Yes the defence industry sells equipment, services and supplies to the New Zealand Defence Force. 

But it would be an incredible stretch to say this is a “weapons conference”. The vast majority of attendees have nothing at all to do with weapons.

The fact is, this conference brings together businesses that sell things like apples, toilet paper, spare parts, electronics, steel and clothing to the Defence Force. Many of these businesses have a presence in Palmerston North and employ thousands of people right across the country.

If you have a defence force, you need to supply it. Those who want the western world to disarm are as misguided as their 1980s counterparts who advocated unilateral disarmament. If we had listened to them, the Soviet Union would still rule Eastern Europe.

The Defence Force is small by global standards and it spends the majority of its time patrolling our fisheries, protecting our environment, working in Antarctica, helping our Pacific partners, peacekeeping, helping foreign nations get back on their feet, supporting disaster relief efforts, training our young people and performing search and rescue operations.

If we are sending our daughters and sons overseas to uphold peace, protect the innocent and help nations build their capacity to govern themselves, then we absolutely must give them the best equipment possible, so they can come home safely.

Absolutely.

Stuff reports:

In the lead-up to Brexit, New Zealanders and Australians are being given permission to use the electronic passport gates at UK airports previously reserved for European citizens.

Americans, Canadians and Japanese citizens will also be granted the privilege, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Philip Hammond announced on Tuesday (NZT) as part of the new budget. 

The move should reduce the time it takes travellers from the five countries to move through UK airports. 

A nice benefit for Kiwi travellers. I love using the e-passport gates in NZ and Australia. Hugely quicker than the manual queues.

The Herald reports:

Sroubek was also previously acquitted of committing an aggravated robbery with two members of the Hells Angels.

Ardern said Sroubek was now on “absolute notice”.

“What happens to him in the future is not on the minister’s, of the Government’s, or New Zealand’s conscience. It’s on his.”

Well it might not be on her conscience but it should be if he offends again.