Stuff reports:

Former Conservative Party leader Colin Craig has been dealt another blow at court, with a judge throwing out his attempt to sue a former employee for defamation.

Judge Gary Harrison said at the Auckland District Court it would be a waste of time to let the embattled businessman proceed with his attempted legal action.

“I have serious misgivings that it would be appropriate to keep these proceedings alive,” Harrison wrote, in a decision released on Monday.

Craig claimed he had been defamed by Jacky Stiekema, who previously worked as a trust accounts manager for his company Centurion Management Ltd, and he sought $240,000 in damages.

Craig must have sued more people for defamation than any other person in New Zealand.

Judge Harrison concluded it was highly unlikely court proceedings would prove Stiekema wrong in her denials, and said the Facebook comments in themselves did not warrant defamation proceedings.

He wrote that only one other of Stringer’s 200 friends responded to the message thread, and Stiekema’s remarks would have had little impact.

“I regard the effect they would have on Mr Craig’s reputation as minimal,” he said.

“The costs associated with a trial that would occupy the order of five days, perhaps more, are simply not justified.”

Stiekema was given 10 days to file an application for costs.

The trouble is that any costs granted never come close to covering your time and expenses if you are sued.

How long has each Prime Minister been party leader before winning an election? Let’s take the post WWII ones.

1. Sidney Holland, 109 months
2. Norman Kirk, 84 months
3. Walter Nash, 83 months
4. Helen Clark, 72 months
5. Jim Bolger, 57 months
6. Peter Fraser, 42 months
7. Keith Holyoake, 39 months
8. John Key, 24 months
9. Robert Muldoon, 17 months
10. David Lange, 17 months

So it is asking a lot of the public to make someone Prime Minister of New Zealand, when they have not had a chance to actualy observe their leadership skills for just two months. Campaign skills will be on display, but there is a difference between leadership skills and campaign skills.

Stuff reports:

Maduro called the vote for a constitutional assembly in May after a month of protests against his government, which has overseen Venezuela’s descent into a devastating crisis during its four years in power. Due to plunging oil prices and widespread corruption and mismanagement, Venezuela’s inflation and homicide rates are among the world’s highest, and widespread shortages of food and medicine have citizens dying of preventable illnesses and rooting through trash to feed themselves.

The winners among the 5500 ruling-party candidates running for 545 seats in the constituent assembly will have the task of rewriting the country’s constitution and will have powers above and beyond other state institutions, including the opposition-controlled congress.

Maduro made clear in a televised address on Saturday (Sunday NZT) that he intends to use the assembly not just to rewrite the country’s charter but to govern without limitation. Describing the vote as “the election of a power that’s above and beyond every other,” Maduro said he wants the assembly to strip opposition lawmakers and governors of constitutional immunity from prosecution – one of the few remaining checks on ruling party power.

Declaring the opposition “already has its prison cell waiting,” Maduro added: “All the criminals will go to prison for the crimes they’ve committed.”

Maduro and the socialists just want to retain power at any cost. Never mind the millions starving in their country due to their policies.

This outcome is not exceptional. It is almost inevitable when you get governments that pursue full socialism or communism.

Stats NZ reports:

The unemployment rate fell to 4.8 percent in the June 2017 quarter (down from 4.9 percent in the March 2017 quarter) Stats NZ said today. This is the lowest unemployment rate since December 2008, after the start of the global financial crisis, when it was 4.4 percent. 

That’s not bad. The OECD average is 5.9%. We are in the top third of the OECD.

The ODT reports:

The powerful new role played by unions and party members in selecting Labour leaders needs to be reviewed, one of the party’s Dunedin MPs says.

The system has delivered two leaders, David Cunliffe and Andrew Little, who failed to connect with the public.

Dunedin South MP Clare Curran said a discussion was needed about whether unions and party members should continue having a say in who leads.

 ”I think we do need to re-look at the way we select our leaders, but that’s a question for after the election,” Curran said.

I believe MPs should decide their own leader. They are the ones who work day after day with their colleagues and know their strengths and weaknesses.

University of Otago public law specialist Prof Andrew Geddis said it was a matter for the party, but the unions’ involvement was problematic.

”The problem is, it’s not the members of the unions who [vote], it’s the officials within the unions. It’s not a popular choice by union members.”

Yep in most unions a few union officials get a huge vote.

Stuff reports:

Smokers might need to travel to the next town to buy a pack of ciggies by 2022, if the Government accepts drastic recommendations made by a group of health experts. …

One of the five key strategies is to cap the number of tobacco retailers at 300. New Zealand has more than 550 officially recognised towns and cities, so the recommendation would mean many population centres would miss out. …

Another strategy would see the current purchasing age of 18 increased gradually every year, starting from December 2022.

All well intentioned but also likely to increase harm from smoking.

Basically they are proposing prohibition. Don’t yet anyone born after 2004 every legally buy cigarettes and make it almost impossible to find a retailer.

But prohibition rarely works. Cannabis is illegal yet almost half of New Zealand have tried it – a far greater percentage than who have tried smoking.

The black market in tobacco in NZ is already growing, due to the increased excise tax.  Every week there is a robbery of a dairy for tobacco.

These policy proposals will fuel the black market and turn tobacco into a lucrative income source for gangs.

So what are the pros and cons of Labour electing Jacinda.  Here’s the pros:

• Genuine – what you see is what you get with Jacinda. She is comfortable in her own skin. The public like genuine people, as we saw with John Key
• Warm, funny and likeable – people generally don’t vote for someone they don’t like. It is not enough by itself, but it is a prerequisite
• Good communicator – nine years of weekly TV appearances
• Excellent debater – could well overshadow English one on one
• Motivational – will motivate many Labour activists who had given up
• Policy wonk – will not be left floundering on details
• Social Media – huge followings
• Media – many in the media love her and will give her a coronation
• Time – with just eight weeks until the election, honeymoon effect will not have worn off

Cons

• Is she ready to be PM? NZ has never elected someone PM who has been a party leader for just eight weeks. She is untested as a leader. Does the public think she can run the country? Running a country is vastly different to running a club of youth wings.
• Can you imagine Winston agreeing to make her Prime Minister if he holds the balance of power? He is more likely to demand the top job for himself.
• Economic credibility? Will the public think her and Grant Robertson will be better economic managers than Bill English and Steven Joyce?
• Caucus support. Her unanimous election was because no one else wanted it before the election. But several senior Labour MPs do not think she has been an effective Opposition MP. Will she face a challenge in October, if Labour loses?
• Effectiveness.  As I pointed out in March, she prioritises empathy over effectiveness.
• Electability. She is popular and liked but she did fail to win Auckland Central (a previous safe seat for Labour) in both 2011 and 2014

Overall the pros clearly outweigh the cons. I think she will do better than Andrew Little. The question is how much better.

Are there any pros or cons I have missed?

New leaders almost always get a boost in the polls, and with Labour at 23% to 24% in most polls it is inevitable Labour will get a boost with the election of Jacinda Ardern as leader.

I’ve gone back through all the One News polls since 1974 to look at what has been the poll boost has been for a new leader (excepting those after an election loss). Here’s the boosts:

1. Geoffrey Palmer 1989, 16%
2. Helen Clark, 1993, 7%
3. Jim McLay 1984, 7%
4. David Lange 1983, 6%
5. Mike Moore, 1990, 5%
6. Jenny Shipley, 1997, 4%
7. Jim Bolger 1986, 4%
8. Don Brash 2003, 4%
9. Bill English 2001, -1%
10. John Key 2006, -3%

So Palmer gave Labour a huge boost when he was elected to replace Lange. It did not last though and half of it was gone two months later and of course he was rolled a year later.

Clark and McLay both got 7% boosts for their parties from their elections, and neither actually ended up winning the next election. Of course they were not elected eight weeks before an election.

Mike Moore was and his party boost was 5%.

The interesting that is that John Key did not initially give National a poll boost. People forget that National under Brash was very popular in 2006. It was at 49% in the polls in Oct 2006 under Brash and after Key took over was at 46% the following February. So you can not get a boost and go on to be very popular.

Don Brash got an initial 4% boost for National by becoming leader, but the big boost was two months later after his Orewa speech where National went up a further 17%.

So what will Ardern’s boost for Labour be? Will it be the same as Bolger, Shipley and Moore at 4% to 5% or will it be larger, or smaller?

Leaders

1. Helen Clark until November 2008
2. Phil Goff Nov 2008 to Dec 2011
3. David Shearer Dec 2011 to Sep 2013
4. David Cunliffe Sep 2013 to Sep 2014
5. Andrew Little Nov 2014 to Aug 2017
6. Jacinda Ardern Aug 2017 –

Deputy Leaders

1. Michael Cullen until November 2008
2. Annette King 2008 – 2011
3. Grant Robertson 2011 – 2013
4. David Parker 2013 – 2014
5. Annette King 2014 – 2017
6. Jacinda Ardern 2017
7. Kelvin Davis 2017 –

That’s a lot of leaders and deputy leaders in under nine years.

Stuff reports:

Hundreds of Island Bay residents gathered at a public meeting on Monday night to hear discussion of the process for rebuilding the southern Wellington suburb’s controversial cycleway. …

The proposals out for consultation include returning The Parade to its original layout with some enhancements, at a cost of $4.1m; keeping the existing layout with some enhancements, for $5.2m; changing to a one-way separated kerbside cycleway above road level, for $6m; or installing the new road-level cycleway and reverting to angle parking, for $6.2m.

However, Island Bay Residents’ Association president Vicki Greco got the biggest cheer of the night when she urged the meeting to endorse a fifth option, known as Option E.

It calls for a return to the pre-cycleway design, with the cycleway put back to the roadside of parked cars, restoring bus stops and removing speed bumps. The residents’ association estimates it would cost only about $750,000.

Greco called the four sanctioned options an insult, and warned the removal of 57 car parks could economically ruin the suburb.

Four options put forward, none of them what the community want. The Council may end up adding insult to injury if they are not careful.

Stuff reports:

Gareth Morgan is keen to position himself as an anti-Winston Peters “peacemaker”, shoring up a Government on either side of the political divide without introducing the instability of NZ First.

The firebrand economist and newbie politician released a press release attacking Peters on Monday, along with a costing of his “pork barrel promises”. 

Morgan contends Peters’ policies – including the writeoff of student debt, removal of GST from food, and free GP visits for pensioners – would cost $10b every year, with no indication of where that money would come from, other than a vague promise to reduce tax evasion

Winston does indeed promise things left right and centre, and says they’re all bottom lines, but the reality is they are unaffordable.

Promising stuff you know you can’t deliver is a form of deception.

How much would tax rates have to increase to cover Winston’s $10 billion a year of spending. Here’s how you could do it:

• Increase GST from 15% to 24%; or
• Increase top tax rate from 33% to 66%; or
• Increase bottom tax rate from 10.5% to 25% and second bottom tax rate from 17.5% to 25%; or
• Increase corporate tax rate from 28% to 63%

Now this is only $10 billion a year that Winston has promised so far. By the election it will probably be $20 billion. And if you vote for him, well don’t come crying when your taxes shoot up.

Andrew Little has resigned as Labour Leader. Another one bites the dust!

UPDATE: The new leader is of course Jacinda Ardern and Kelvin Davis is Deputy Leader. Sounds like there may have been a contest for Deputy.

Will Little seek to remain in Parliament and be given a winnable list place? Do they have winnable list places?

There is no doubt Ardern will give Labour a bounce in the polls. The question is how long does it last for, and who do they take votes from – Greens, NZ First or National?

NewstalkZB reports:

Labour MP Stuart Nash has admitted the party’s agreement with the Greens is hurting its chances.

It comes as Labour’s support has slumped in the polls and Andrew Little has conceded he considered stepping down.

Mr Nash said ending the memorandum of understanding with the Greens isn’t up to him.

But he told Rachel Smalley voters aren’t happy with the Green Party co-leader’s admission of benefit fraud.

He predicts Labour will distance itself from the Greens as the election nears.

“What you are going to see in the next two months is Labour and Green go in different ways in terms of the way they are delivering their policy. I mean you are not going to see Andrew stand up and admit he’s a benefit fraudster.”

He said voters are unhappy with the Green’s co-leader’s admission of benefit fraud, despite what polling might suggest.

“A number of people I spoke to over the weekend had real concerns about what Metiria came out and admitted and the fact that she may well be the Deputy Prime Minster under Labour, but I don’t think that can happen now.”

The Greens are campaigning for people to be able to spend 15 years on the dole and never ever have to attend even a single job interview.

Labour MPs and candidates can say that isn’t their policy but they have the MOU with the Greens so their voters conclude a vote for Labour may lead to Metiria Turei becoming Minister of Social Welfare and Deputy Prime Minister, so they desert Labour.

Stuart Nash gets it. I suspect many Labour MPs are starting to get it. The issue isn’t Little (even though he has not done well) but their MOU with the Greens.

Stuff reports:

Labour has been hit by a second hammer blow poll showing its popularity taking a dive – and this time the bad news comes from its own pollster.

A UMR Research poll provided to Labour, the pollster’s corporate clients and some other parties last week, and leaked to Stuff on Monday, showed Labour on 23 per cent – down six points from a similar poll in June.

Labour needs 23.1% party vote to get any List MPs (if they hold 27 electorate seats) so on this poll Andrew Little won’t even be returned as an MP.

The Newshub poll is at Curia. Some differences from One News but not for Labour.

Newshub have also put up an archive of their last five years of polling. The data on whether people think Andrew Little is doing a good or poor job is telling.

What this shows is that Little did do well for the first six to nine months. But his disapprovals just kept rising and rising and his approvals also declined. So the net approval line plummeted from +28% to -15%.

He started off with just 17% saying he was doing a poor job but now it is at 45%.

Nikki Kaye announced:

Education Minister Nikki Kaye today confirmed the Government will replace the decile system for schools with targeted funding to better support those students most at risk of not achieving.

“For too long schools have been stigmatised and wrongly judged by their decile number,” says Ms Kaye.

Deciles became a proxy for quality, and they’re not. There are some very good schools in low decile areas and some not so good schools in high decile areas.

“Today I’m announcing that the Cabinet has agreed to replace the decile system with a Risk Index that allows us to better target funding to schools with children and young people most at risk of not achieving due to disadvantage.

“We will also be replacing the equity index used to allocate disadvantage funding in early childhood education with the Risk Index.”

So the more students who are at risk of not achieving, the more funding the school gets. Actually targeting it on need.

“However, I’m pleased to be able to confirm that no school, early learning service or ngā kōhanga reo will see a reduction in their funding as a direct result of this change,” says Ms Kaye.

So existing funding will be grandfathered in. No school will get less.

Newshub reports:

The Hui has obtained the results of an internal Labour Party survey of Waiariki which is currently held by Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell, and the numbers make interesting reading.

It shows Labour candidate Tamati Coffey is trailing Māori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell by just 1.5 percent.

That is not the interesting part. Personally I strongly doubt that Coffey is near Flavell when you consider his majority last time and the fact Mana has now endorsed him.

Here is the interesting part:

Which of the following would you cast your party vote for?

• National – 13.4 percent
• Labour – 19.4 percent
• The Greens – 12.1 percent
• NZ First – 25.7 percent
• The Māori Party – 18.9 percent
• Another Party – 4.4 percent
• Unsure – 6.1 percent

If you take away the undecideds, Labour is saying their poll has the party vote in Waiariki as:

• National 14.3% (+9.2% from election)
• Labour 20.7% (-18.1%)
• Greens 12.9% (+4.8%)
• NZ First 27.4% (+14.7%)
• Maori Party 20.1% (-1.9%)

So Labour have released an internal poll showing their party vote has halved in Waiariki. I’m not sure the poll is that credible, but regardless why would you release a poll showing your party vote has plummeted?

Newshub reports:

NZ Herald reports:

Bill Shorten has vowed to take steps to make Australia a republic in his first term as prime minister, saying the country’s current head of state “is a foreign power”.

At the Australian Republic Movement’s gala dinner in Melbourne, he pointed to the words “carpe diem” on the ceiling of Melbourne’s Royal Exhibition Building.

“We must seize the day and become a republic,” he told the cheering crowd.

He promised a Shorten Labor government will take “the first real steps to make Australia a republic in the first term of government”.

 

That would include putting a “straightforward” ‘yes or no’ question to the Australian people. 

Not sure it is as simple as yes or no. You need to know what sort of republic it would be to sensibly vote on it.