Another series of graphs for those who think the election should be focused on policy. All data is from data.govt.nz and compiled by me.

I thought we should look at all four sectors from pre-school to tertiary.

The proportion of new school entrants who did not have early childhood education has halved from 6.4% to 3.1%.

And where have the greatest gains been made? The ECE non participation rate for decile 1 school students was 19.2% in 2010 and has dropped to 12.5%. That is what makes a difference to equality of opportunity.

The Maori non participation rate has dropped from 10.7% to 7.1% ad for Pasifika from 14.1% to 9.7%. Real gains there.

In just two years, there have been significant increases in the number of primary students making the national standards for reading, maths and writing. National standards have allowed schools to better identify which students are struggling, allow the Government to give more assistance to schools that are struggling, and given parents much clearer information on how their kids are doing.

If someone leaves school without at least NCEA Level 2, their future employment and income prospects are bleak. National has lifted the achievement rate from 68% to 79%. The gain is even greater for Maori and Pasfika students. The Maori achievement rate is up from 45% to 63% and Pasifika from 51% to 71%. Not bad for just five years.

Then at tertiary level, we have almost 50% more Maori gaining a tertiary qualification than in 2008. Again this is how you reduce inequality – rather than increasing taxes.

And in case you think not enough people are graduating at the top end, the number of doctorates granted has increased from around 800 to 1,100.

And possibly the most important tertiary indicator – the completion rates. This has gone up from 75.6% in 2008 to 82.95 in 2014. The tertiary system is now better incentivised for people to actually complete their degrees and diplomas.

All these improvements despite inheriting an economy rocked by the Global Financial Crisis, and serious funding constraints.

The Herald reports:

National’s Associate Finance Minister Steven Joyce said in May that the VSR wouldn’t be very effective. His rough calculations showed KiwiSaver contribution rates would have to rise six percentage points – say from 9 to 15 per cent – to have the same effect as a one percentage point rise in the OCR. …

However, Labour’s finance spokesman David Parker says he estimates that KiwiSaver contributions would have to rise just two percentage points to equal a one percentage point rise in the OCR.

This comes close to an outright lie by Parker.

A change to the KiwiSaver contribution rate will impact around $600 million a year. By contrast the OCR affects around $330 billion of lending. There is not an economist alive I reckon who would agree with Parker.

Again I remind people Labour deliberately declined the offer of a Treasury secondee who could professionally assess stuff like this.

Here’s what the Westpac Bank Chief Economist said:

However, we suspect that the VSR would not be particularly powerful. Our back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest that a one percentage-point hike in the VSR would reduce household consumption by just 0.2% of GDP. And in terms of the impact on inflation, a one percentage-point hike in the VSR would be equivalent to an OCR hike of between 10bp and 15bp.

David Parker is claiming an impact three to five times greater than Westpac has calculated. This is not a minor difference. This is a 300% to 500% difference. And this is not a complex calculation. The amount of money paid into KiwiSaver and generally on loan from banks is a known quantity.

I do not believe Parker’s figures are made in good faith. I bet you he can not produce a shred of a calculation to back them up. It is a con.

John Armstrong writes:

Peters has a track record of competence as a minister. He is a realist. His party would bring stability to a governing arrangement.

Stability and Peters are not words that go together.

I think it would be better for National to go into opposition than be in coalition with Peters, and subject to his every whim. It will not end well.

If National gets 46% but can’t quite get a majority without Peters, then I say let Labour form a Government propped up by the Greens, NZ First, Mana and Internet parties, plus of course Dotcom wielding power in the background. It will be a terrible two or three years for the country, but National would easily win in 2017.

If NZ First are not essential to being able to form a Government, then you might do a deal with them (as National has done with the Maori Party). If say National has 57 MPs, NZ First 9 and Conservatives 6.  You could do a deal with both, as you only need one of them to govern. You can’t be held hostage by Peters.

The other possibility is to just run a minority Government, with NZ First abstaining.

But the moment you are reliant on NZ First, then the stability of the Government is threatened in my experience. When a backbench NZ First MP has a brain fart and says something monumentally stupid (The Reserve Bank is foreign owned) or offensive (people who look like Muslims should not be allowed to fly), then the PM will be asked about whether he is comfortable his Government is propped up by someone who thinks or says that. And the Government gets dragged down by the lowest common denominator.

Narelle Hansen writes in the Waikato Times:

News had also just broken that the criminal Arthur Taylor was fighting for prisoners’ rights to vote in the High Court. …

… here is a man who has broken the law 150 times appealing to the law for the opportunity to choose the lawmakers. It’s like a comedy. Why on earth does he care who makes laws? If his past is anything to go by he won’t be a huge fan of keeping the laws his chosen politicians make anyway.

That, really, is the core problem he has, poor bloke. An argument about rights always sounds so soulless when one refuses to uphold the responsibilities that go with them. Arthur wants cake when he has already eaten it.

The very simply way for him to have the right to vote would be to stay out of jail.

Bravo.

No-one would get in the way of his “fundamental freedoms”, by virtue of the fact he wasn’t getting in the way of theirs. After all, that is what committing a crime boils down to; stealing rights from our fellow citizens. We steal their right to life when we murder, we steal their right to own property when we take things not lawfully ours, we steal their right to the truth when we commit fraud. Having stolen the rights of his fellow citizens, Arthur wants more. That’s just greedy.

Labour and Greens are vowing to restore the right to vote for some, possibly all, prisoners.

Rodney Hide writes in the HoS:

There’s also every likelihood that voters won’t decide the Government. That could be up to Winston Peters. It’s deplorable but that’s MMP and that’s Peters’ cunning. To vote New Zealand First you must not care whether Cunliffe or Key is Prime Minister and whether the Greens are in Government. A vote for Peters is for any of the above. Peters will go with who is best for him. You have been warned.

That’s a good way of putting it.

Cunliffe has been the campaign loser. He may well end up Prime Minister but he has Labour polling in the 20s. He would start his Prime Ministership on the back foot without popular support and with the Greens and others in the box seat pushing him around.

In January Labour averaged 33.5% in the public polls. This has been their average every month this year:

• Jan 33.5%
• Feb 32.2%
• Mar 30.7%
• Apr 30.5%
• May 29.9%
• Jun 27.9%
• Jul 26.6%
• Aug 26.1%
• Sep 24.8%

In eight months they have lost 8.7% – not in one big hit, bit a long slow gradual decline.

The other loser is Hone Harawira. He sold out himself, his party, his electorate. The best to be said is that he wasn’t cheap. Kim Dotcom kicked in $4.5 million.

Harawira may do well with Dotcom’s bankroll but his integrity is gone. It’s not something he can buy back.

Hone got 1.1% last time without selling out. He was 0.1% off getting a 2nd MP. On the average of the polls taking Dotcom’s money is only going to get him that 2nd MP.

The big winners this election are the Greens. They are the third party of New Zealand politics. Labour must now figure out how to work with them.

The Greens are looking like their caucus may be over half the size of Labour’s.

I thought the two leaders on Q+A was a real contrast. If you didn’t watch it live, you can watch online. John Key is here and David Cunliffe here. Have a watch, and comment what you think.

Patrick Gower writes in the HoS:

The polls show the left can’t win – they can’t get the numbers together to get a feasible majority no matter what.

The right can get the numbers together to win – but not without some serious compromises. It looks as if it’s not a matter of whether Key wins, but more how he wins.

Let’s start with the death throes of the left.

The Greens’ tricky, cynical and reheated claim they could work with National was probably the final gasp of the left bloc this week.

It was just Greenwash, really: Russel Norman and Metiria Turei hate Key and everything he stands for, and have spent the past three years bashing National.

It was a coded sign the Greens don’t think David Cunliffe and Labour can make it and are trying to grab Labour voters if there’s a further plunge.

Who needs enemies when you have the Greens?

Astute analysis.

To be fair, the Greens owe Labour nothing. Labour has treated the Greens poorly all year, trying to pretend they don’t really exist.

Now it’s payback time, with the vegetarian vultures feasting on Labour’s carcass.

Love the turn of phrase!

TVNZ reports:

The Internet-Mana Party says the Prime Minister’s reported intention to release documents showing spy officials may have considered mass surveillance is an abuse of his authority.

Waa, waa, waa.

They are seriously claiming that the PM should not release documents which prove their bombshell is a fizzer. What  planet are they on?

ONE News understands John Key will release documents showing spy officials may have considered mass surveillance but the proposal never went ahead.

How dare John Key reveal the truth. He must be impeached.

In a joint statement, Mr Harawira and Ms Harre say the reported intention of the Prime Minister “to arrange the selective declassification and release of documents for his own political purposes” represents an abuse of the Prime Minister’s authority in his capacity as the Minister in charge of the GCSB and the SIS.

Seriously, these people have lost their marbles. They think it is okay to release stolen classifed documents as part of their election campaign, but it is not okay for the Prime Minister to declassify a document in response, to show they are wrong.

The Sunday Star-Times has published the latest Fairfax Ipsos poll, which is at Curiablog. It has Labour at a new low of 22.4%.

On the average of the polls, a centre-right government has a very slim majority. They have 63 seats and need 62. After that then the Maori Party or NZ First hold balance of power, unless the Conservatives make 5%.

The Herald reports:

Internet Party leader Laila Harre is standing by her policy to decriminalise cannabis following the publication of a study highlighting the damaging effects of regular use on young people.

An Australasian research paper into the effects of cannabis use on adolescents was published in The Lancet medical journal on Tuesday.

It found that under 17s who use cannabis daily were 60 per cent less likely to complete high school and 60 per cent less likely to gain a degree.

Ms Harre said such research demonstrated the need to decriminalise cannabis.

“It is that kind of evidence that has led us to the firm view that cannabis should be dealt with as a health issue rather than as a criminal justice issue.

I agree that cannabis should be primarily dealt with as a health issue.

Two US states have legalised cannabis for personal use. In around three years we should have some fascinating data to assess such as whether drug use or drug affected crime has increased or decreased (or stayed the same) with legal sales.

A guest post from Charles Finny:

On 3 September 1939 a Labour Government in New Zealand declared war on Germany in support of the UK and others following Adolph Hitler’s decision to invade Poland.  Until the war ended in 1945 New Zealand made enormous sacrifices and as we all know, and as happened in World War I a disproportionately large number of New Zealanders were killed and wounded.  From 1941, the war became as much a war in the Pacific as a war in Europe. 

One of the developments of this war was signals intelligence and cryptography.  New Zealand and New Zealanders played as big a role in these areas as we did in the wider conflict.  Because of this, and because of the staunchness of our commitment we found ourselves part of what is now known as the “five eyes agreement”.  As technology has developed we have received the same signals intelligence as the US, UK, Canada, and Australia.  And our own communications have been protected by the highest grade encryption technologies developed in association with these other four countries.  For a pipsqueak little country of only a few million people located in a distant corner of the globe we have been in an incredibly privileged position.

The Labour Government that saw us through World War II, and those from 1957-60, 1972-75, 1984-90 and 1999-2008 have not sought to change our position in “five eyes” because the leaders and senior Ministers of those Governments have realized how lucky we are to be part of this agreement and knew how fundamental the intelligence derived from it was to the security of New Zealand.  Ultimately the most important function of government is to protect the people.  “Five eyes” plays a very important role in our ongoing security.  There was a wobble under Lange which saw New Zealand denied access to some processed intelligence from the US, but access to the raw communications intercepted by the four allies continued throughout.  Under Helen Clark the full flow of processed intelligence resumed.

I cannot believe what I have just heard David Cunliffe saying about GCSB today.  What we now call GCSB is as much a creation of Labour as it is the National Party.  It is crucial to our continuing security.  It protects us against the hostile actions of foreign governments, terrorist organizations, and international criminals.  Of course the same foreign governments, terrorist organizations and criminals hate the ‘’fives eyes agreement” and want it dismantled because it stands in their way.  I can’t believe that a Labour Leader would align himself with these forces and put this agreement and our position in it so much at risk.  If his senior colleagues do not call Cunliffe on this, shame on them too.  Our national security is too important to be put at risk by short term political opportunism.

David Cunliffe is now trying to buddy buddy up to Kim Dotcom and his hired speakers. If Dotcom’s allegations are correct (which of course they are not), then this happened under the Cabinet David Cunliffe sat in. Is he saying Helen Clark lied to New Zealand? or is he just desperately trying to win back some votes on the left?

Stuff reports:

ACT says shopkeepers should be free to keep guns under their counter, but National leader John Key has dismissed the policy as “dangerous.”

Leader Jamie Whyte said today his party would strengthen the law for self-defence and ensure it is not illegal for a dairy owner to keep a weapon on the premises.

However, Key immediately ruled out implementing the policy, should both parties get back into government.
“If ACT thinks the solution is to give a shopkeeper a shot gun, that could end very very badly,” Key told reporters in Whangarei.

When I go into a dairy, I feel safer if there isn’t an unsecured loaded firearm sitting below the counter, thank you..

Stuff reports:

A South African judge has found Oscar Pistorius guilty of culpable homicide in the shooting death of girlfriend Reeva Steenkamp and declared him not guilty of murder.

Prosecutors said they were disappointed by the ruling but would decide on whether to appeal only after sentencing.

Judge Thokozile Masipa said there was not enough evidence to support the contention that Pistorius knew Steenkamp was behind a locked toilet door in his home when he shot through the door in the predawn hours of Valentine’s Day last year. Masipa said prosecutors had not proven beyond a reasonable doubt that Pistorius intended to kill Steenkamp.

I’m glad he hasn’t got off entirely. Personally I didn’t see any reasonable doubt.

The conviction of culpable homicide, or negligent killing, can bring a maximum prison sentence of 15 years, although legal experts pointed to five years as a guideline.

Hopefully it is more than five.

Stuff reports:

Free tertiary education and a universal student allowance could be delivered immediately if they were prioritised over tax cuts, the Internet-Mana Party says.

Details of the party’s free tertiary education policy have been released, which it says would stop the growth of the level of student debt – currently more than $14 billion.

Co-leaders Laila Harre and Hone Harawira said the policy was aimed at increasing New Zealand’s knowledge base without crushing students, parents and graduates under a mountain of debt.

Internet-Mana has pledged free education at public institutions and a universal student allowance.

It would also increase the earnings threshold that triggers compulsory repayments, and write off debt for those on parental leave for up to a year at the rate they would have repaid it if they had been earning.

A shortfall in employment over the summer period when students are not at university would be addressed through the establishment of a summer jobs programme.

Details of a debt forgiveness programme would be developed, with funds already tagged to progressively write off existing student debt.

So they would write off all existing debt progressively, and also provide free allowances and tuition to everyone who wants it.

Taxpayers’ Union spokesman Ben Craven said writing off student debt would benefit professionals such as lawyers and doctors who had large student loans, but were also likely to be on good incomes.

Forgiving the entire amount of student loan debt currently owed would cost an average of $8374 per household, and was likely to be more expensive than the election policies of all the mainstream political parties combined, Craven said. 

Imagine how high the tax rates will be to fund all this.

The Herald reports:

Internet Party leader Laila Harre has criticised the Greens for talking about the possibility of a co-operation deal with a National Government just eight days from the election – a proposal that National has slapped down and exploited.

“I think it is seriously mis-timed,” Ms Harre told the Weekend Herald.

She said it was crucial that progressive parties focused on mobilising turnout to change the government and the amount of early voting so far signalled the potential for a significant increase.

“I think the Greens’ statement is unfortunate. It risks demoralising those who are confident and hold hope that the progressive parties are focused on a change of government,” Ms Harre said.

In the event that National managed to put together a government after September 20, it would be one that was extremely vulnerable, with John Key’s leadership an issue in the aftermath of the Dirty Politics revelations.

“All of that makes it even more important that the progressive parties that want to change the Government are entirely focused on that outcome.

“It is not the time for any of those parties to be forming relationships of any nature with the National Party.”

Laila is unhappy with her comrades. Bad Greens.

However, Prime Minister John Key had ruled it out by the afternoon and exploited the appearance of a rift between the Greens and Labour for all it was worth.

“They’ve given up hope on Labour,” he told reporters in Northland.

“The Greens have made their own way with Labour.

“The fact that the ship is taking on so much water is really a problem for the two of them to think about.”

The big problem for Labour leader David Cunliffe was that the only partner he had basically got “is saying ‘man overboard’,” the PM said

If they don’t make it this time, the Greens face 18 years of not being in Government. Also they will then have Internet Mana in Parliament with greater resources and directly competing for votes with them..

The Herald reports:

The Rev. Ian Paisley, the divisive Protestant firebrand who devoted his life to thwarting compromise with Catholics in Northern Ireland only to become a pivotal peacemaker in his twilight years, died Friday in Belfast, his wife said. He was 88.

Paisley was Northern Ireland’s most polarizing politician throughout its three decades of civil strife, during which the evangelist’s blistering oratory was often blamed for fueling the bloodshed that claimed 3,700 lives.

I blame the people who did the killings.

When the Democratic Unionists increased their Assembly strength in March 2007 elections, Paisley insisted he wouldn’t start talking face-to-face with Sinn Fein, never mind form a Cabinet with them.

Yet within a few weeks, Paisley appeared alongside Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams live on TV to declare that their two parties had buried the hatchet.

“We must not allow our justified loathing of the horrors and tragedies of the past to become a barrier to creating a better and more stable future,” Paisley said in that address, the first time he ever shared a platform with Sinn Fein.

In the coming year, Paisley forced commentators to re-acess his legacy. Had he mellowed, or had he simply demanded the impossible and held his ground until his enemies delivered it?

To the surprise of many, Paisley embraced his new role as Northern Ireland’s first minister with a relaxed demeanor, most strikingly when working alongside his government co-leader, former IRA commander Martin McGuinness. The two men said they formed a genuine, mutually respectful relationship. Joking together at events, they were dubbed “The Chuckle Brothers” by a disbelieving local press.

It was the most unlikely of coalitions.

Stuff reports:

“Unanimous” opposition to the Australian government’s proposed copyright law changes will force it back to the drawing board to tackle online piracy, Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull says.

Representatives from both sides of the online piracy debate – including the telecommunications companies and rights holders – have warned the changes to copyright law outlined in the government’s discussion paper on online piracy are too broad and could have negative unintended consequences. 

Turnbull hosted a lively public forum in Sydney on Tuesday night that included panellists from the film and television sectors, internet service providers and consumer groups.

The government has proposed creating a new legal framework – known as “extended authorisation liability” – to make internet service providers more accountable for their customers’ illicit downloading.

A stupid idea.

Australian Performing Rights Association CEO Brett Cottle said that despite the availability of affordable online music streaming services such as Spotify an estimated 3 to 3.5 million Australians use torrent services at least once a month to download music without authorisation. 

But a study commissioned by Spotify, released on Tuesday, found music piracy had declined by 20 per cent in Australia thanks largely to the availability of legal streamings services. 

Good – heading in the right direction.

Stuff reports:

A scheme dangling a $3000 carrot for jobless to relocate to Canterbury for work has had a five-fold surge in takers in the past two months.

The Government’s “$3k to Christchurch” has brought more than 350 newly employed workers into the region at a cost of more than $1 million.

In total, the incentive scheme is expected to cost up to $3.5m and aims to shift 1000 workers.

A quarter were aged between 20 and 24, and 197 of them landed work in the construction industry.

In July, a month after its launch, 40 men and 10 women met the criteria and had moved.

To receive a grant, clients must have a confirmed fulltime job offer (30 hours a week or more) in the Christchurch area and be ready to relocate.

350 jobless people have now moved to Christchurch with the grant and gained work. A win-win.

NBR has given some details around its paywall, as the Herald confirms they will introduce one in early 2015. Some details:

• 3,000 individual subscriptions (at $230 each = $690,000)
• 300 business subscriptions
• NBR gets 55,000 visitors and 300,000 pageviews a day
• Total revenune for NBR Online around $1 million a year
• Print circulation revenue around $2,850,000

I’ve often cited NBR as a rare paywall model that works. They get the mix of free and non free stuff right, and they provide analysis and news you can get elsewhere. People won’t pay for news stories that are covered on a dozen other sites, but they will for quality analysis.

Salient interviewed over Twitter a number of former staff who are still in journalism, and the q+a are quite interesting. Those who responded include Patrick Gower (3 News), Elle Hunt (Radio NZ/The Wireless), Laura McQuillan (NewstalkZB), Matt Nippert (Fairfax), John Campbell (Campbell Live), Simon WIlson (Metro) and Toby Manhire (Listener et al).

In 2008 only 65% of people requiring cancer treatment got it within four weeks. Many had to go to Australia to get treatment. Today every DHB has 100% of people needing cancer treatment getting it within four weeks. Source: Ministry of Health National Health Targets.

The best way to reduce smoking, is for young New Zealanders not to take it up. In 2007 15.7% of 15 to 17 year olds were smokers. In 2013 this rate had reduced to 8.0%. Source: Ministry of Health Public Health Survey. Note I don’t think this change is not necessarily related to who is in Government, but think it is important to make the point that the trend is very positive.

In 2008 the public health system provided 118,000 elective operations. In 2013/14 it was 161,933. A huge increase of 44,000. Source: Ministry of Health National Health Targets.

From 2003 to 2008 the number of elective operations increased by 2,950 a year. Since 2008 it has increased by 7,368 a year. Source: Ministry of Health National Health Targets and National Party.

Recall all the moral panic over youth drinking.  Well the Ministry of Health Public Health Survey shows that in 2007 19.5% of 15 to 17 year olds were hazardous drinkers and in 2013 only 8.1% were – almost half as many. Source: Ministry of Health Public Health Survey.

That’s 3,289 more nurses, 1,589 more doctors and 1,000 fewer health managers and administrators since 2008. Source: National Party Health Policy.

This is the change in percentage terms. Source: National Party. A 17.8% increase in nursing numbers and 26.8% increase in doctor numbers.

In 2008 only 70% of people in Emergency Departments were treated within six hours. In 2014 it was 94%. Source: Ministry of Health National Health Targets.

In 2008 only 76% of two year olds were immunised (on time). In 2014 it was 93%. Source: Ministry of Health National Health Targets.

These are not abstract changes. These are changes that make a huge impact on people’s lives. Few things are more important than quick cancer treatment, shorter emergency department stays, more immunisations and more elective operations. Plus on top of that the youth rates for smoking and hazardous drinking has almost halved.

These are issues that matter.