G-Man on Winston
G-Man used to work for Winston as a press secretary. So it is with interest we read his blog at Gotcha:
What did I think of The Big Speech? To mix canine metaphors: It was a dog’s dinner, all over the place like a mad dog’s shit. I thought Winston now sounds like a man desperately searching for relevance.
Normally I smile politely to myself, but tonight I AM writing New Zealand First off as a going concern. I can say with 100% confidence that New Zealand First will not be in the next parliament after 2011, and anyone who thinks otherwise is delusional.
A big call.
Please understand, this conclusion has not been reached from a point of anger: I personally like Winston. This conclusion was reached after a cold, objective look at the facts. Simply put, Winston does not have the resources or political credit to launch a serious attempt at re-election. …
Voters can be compared to a finance company. If we can indulge in an extension of that analogy then New Zealand First, and Winston in particular, have used up all their (political) credit, and now have a bad credit rating.
Winston’s counter to this is to paint himself as the victim of a conspiracy; his amazing speech this last weekend to the New Zealand First conference explicitly states this …
And some advice:
Right now Winston’s biggest asset is the respect and weariness that his political foes and the media have of him. They too have a fear that he may very well have the powers to be the comeback-kid once again, and aren’t prepared to write him off. The result is that they continue to give him token attention.
If they really want to get rid of him then they should simply ignore him. Winston’s only chance of getting traction is to be a gadfly who gets a reaction from those with better things to do, to be an itch that has to be itched.
Without that traction then the laws of rational expectations applies: if potential NZ First voters believe that NZ First will not get over 5% then they will not be prepared to vote for him, and his support will stay low, repeating the cycle– Unless NZ First is around the 5% within 6 months then he has no chance whatsoever. The chances of that happening, with the country emerging from recession and National so far ahead in the polls are zero.
NZ First was at 1.5% in the last Roy Morgan poll. To make 5.0% is an additional 100,000 voters or so.
And Roy Morgan were quite accurate in predicting NZ First. Their pre-elections campaign polls has NZ First at 5% (14 Sep), 4% (5 Oct), 4.5% (19 Oct) and 4.5% (2 Nov). They got 4.1%.
During 2005 to 2008, Roy Morgan never had NZ First under 2%.
September 8th, 2009 at 12:07 pm
“If they really want to get rid of him then they should simply ignore him. Winston’s only chance of getting traction is to be a gadfly who gets a reaction from those with better things to do, to be an itch that has to be itched”.
I don’t know about an itch that requires itching, but winston sure as hell needs scratching.
September 8th, 2009 at 12:09 pm
Winston has had a bad political credit rating since at least 1996 but has always managed to get up off the floor and go again like the cockroach that he is. I won’t write him off until he’s dead.
September 8th, 2009 at 12:12 pm
1.5% means more people would vote for NZ First than voted for John Key at the last election…
September 8th, 2009 at 12:13 pm
“..During 2005 to 2008, Roy Morgan never had NZ First under 2%…”
bit of a long bow there..dpf..
peters bailed out after the election..remember..?
from 2005-2008 he was active..
i fail to see your ‘point’…
phil(whoar.co.nz)
[DPF: Oh the man who kept telling us Winston would make 5%]
September 8th, 2009 at 12:21 pm
Exactly true. I have been saying this for ten years.
September 8th, 2009 at 12:25 pm
I think ignoring him is the best idea, he deserves to be in jail but that opportunity was lost when Helen Clark protected him long enough that the time limits expired. He must have some major dirt on her – what could it be….
September 8th, 2009 at 12:31 pm
He was a bit of a disgrace, but I guess thats what happens when you’ve spent time as a National MP.
BTW, keep making shit up burt, it just further demonstrates what a moron you are.
September 8th, 2009 at 12:34 pm
racer1
You must be a Labour supporter, only a dim-bulb supporter of corruption would distract from the fact that Winston’s most disgraceful times occurred in coalition with Labour.
That tax cut for the racing industry and the undeclared Vella family donation(s) – tell us again how Micheal Laws brokered the deal and it actually occurred while Jenny Shipley was PM.
That Owen Glenn chap, wasn’t he the National candidate for Otaki ?
September 8th, 2009 at 12:55 pm
Reminds me of the recent quote from Metiria Turei
“MMP helps to keep government honest. New Zealanders deserve a modern democratic system that is fair for everyone.”
Almost broke something laughing over that line.
MMP permitted “NZ First” to get into cabinet on several occasions now, but I’m not going to hold Winston up as the “poster-boy” for honest government.
September 8th, 2009 at 1:01 pm
“..[DPF: Oh the man who kept telling us Winston would make 5%]..”
he made 4.2%…
i was 0.8% ‘out’..
(i can live with that..)
and had national not played such a ‘dirty’/lying campaign..
he’d have got there..
and the economic downturn will bring a revival of nationalism..
and that is peters’ song..
i repeat….’your point’..?
and..you’ve really taken on board that ’shoot the messanger’ tactic used by yr kniuckle-dragger commenters..eh..?
in place of answering/adressing any point raised/under discussion..
i repeat..
what is the relevance of comparing a time a poitician is ‘retired’..to when they are active..?
and making a ‘case’ from that..?
sheesh..!
(holy ‘that’s a curly one!..batman..!’.)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
[DPF: National didn't play any games against Winston. John Key just said he wouldn't work with him.
And if you insist on continuing to make predictions about what will happen, then I will insist on reviewing your accuracy record. That is not shooting the messenger - it is called having a reputation]
September 8th, 2009 at 1:04 pm
“MMP helps to keep government honest. New Zealanders deserve a modern democratic system that is fair for everyone.”
Cthoniid, that should read: “…The Greens deserve a modern democratic system that is fair for the Greens.”
The only reason she likes it is that without MMP she and her party are history.
September 8th, 2009 at 1:22 pm
phil u said “and had national not played such a ‘dirty’/lying campaign..
he’d have got there..”
Dirty? Lying? National didn’t play dirty over Peters phil, or tell lies. National just made sure that some of the facts (some, not all) made it into the public arena. From there, it was all Peters’ own work. His obfuscating performance before the Privileges Committee sealed his fate.
September 8th, 2009 at 1:40 pm
burt, something to do with something that happened when someone was overseas.
racer1 you must be a fucking moron to not conclude that an astute politician like HC risked the election defending Winston because he had some serious dirt on someone.
September 8th, 2009 at 1:59 pm
The Ultimate Irony…….
Philu calling someone else a knuckle dragger……:lol:
September 8th, 2009 at 3:19 pm
phil u said “and had national not played such a ‘dirty’/lying campaign..
Yeah I remember the campaign now, Party president went off to Aussie to dig up dirt on.. F**K wrong party, still it was about as dirty as you can get depending on what side of the fence you were sitting on.
September 8th, 2009 at 4:00 pm
So whos got what dirt on John Key that is holding him to ransom over the smacking bill then? Quick dash home from Hawaii perhaps?
September 8th, 2009 at 4:20 pm
racer1
If you have got dirt on Key then spill – Hell if there is dirt and that dirt is effecting the integrity of any MP’s actions then it should be dealt with irrespective of which party it is.
Mr CreosoteMike Williams couldn’t find any!September 8th, 2009 at 4:24 pm
Hahah, philu calls national having a dirty campaign for ruling out the most corrupt self-serving politician NZ has ever seen.
Irony
September 8th, 2009 at 4:31 pm
“burt
racer1
If you have got dirt on Key then spill – Hell if there is dirt and that dirt is effecting the integrity of any MP’s actions then it should be dealt with irrespective of which party it is.”
Change of policy?
September 8th, 2009 at 4:34 pm
racer1
Change of policy ? what are you talking about?
If you want to get into a list of flip flops on a thread about Winston while Labour’s integrity is also being discussed then you are (figuratively) bending over holding your ankles screaming “give it to me big burty boy”.
September 8th, 2009 at 4:59 pm
You lot are the ones sitting on information that an ex MP’s husband is a child molester. I mean, you must have some pretty solid evidence with the way you all carried on about it.
September 8th, 2009 at 5:04 pm
racer1
I had never heard that, as far as I knew it was a situation where there possibly legal issues due to where (geographically – local law) it happened but hell I never heard anything about that.
As for You lot… All I know I have read on blogs – but man, you seem to know more. Spill racer1….
September 8th, 2009 at 5:19 pm
If Winston had any dignity, he would bugger off. But he doesn’t, so he won’t. If I liked him, I would consider his latest outpourings sad and this “resurrection” his personal tragedy, but I don’t, so I won’t.
All the same, there must be a friend he cannot browbeat and who could advise him honestly that the Marcel wave, shiny suits and Churchillian references just won’t cut it anymore.
Also, I cannot understand why some journalist with a microphone hasn’t stuffed it down his gizzardy gullet by now. God knows, they’d get off on “provocation”.
September 8th, 2009 at 5:22 pm
Just heard some people on a bus, no idea of the accuracy eh, but you know, the way people throw accusations around here!
September 8th, 2009 at 5:24 pm
noodle
Winston is easy to provoke… see here: burt tells of Winston loosing his rag over ‘wanky politician’ comment
September 8th, 2009 at 5:30 pm
racer1
DPF has asked that we don’t talk about [blah blah blah] but even ignoring that particular gossip, there must be some reason why Winston got to walk such a crooked line without any consequences. Not being re-elected is hardly punishment for brazen disregard for the rules and additionally all the things Winston banged on about others doing (secret trusts – big money for policy yada yada) he was doing himself. The man deserves to be ignored as he can’t be convicted or held accountable under laws that he expected others to be hung on.
September 8th, 2009 at 5:36 pm
I disagree with some of your premises there. Personally I think it was a massive beat up to try and get an early election, its not something the public cared much about. Helen Clark could have dealt with it a bit better, but as you have seen with Garret chewing on foot, the range of things that the leader of another party can do is fairly limited. I just don’t subscribe to the theory that there is some big secret conspiracy going on, beans would have been spilt, that’s the way it is in politics.
September 8th, 2009 at 5:42 pm
That Winston can sure get a thread going.
September 8th, 2009 at 5:55 pm
racer1
The man flouted the disclosure rules and your response is ‘Helen could have handled it better’ – Hell’s could eat babies and all you would say is – at least she used a local brand tomato sauce to keep the food miles down. Hell you supporters of corruption will say anything to deflect from shocking standards in parliament.
September 8th, 2009 at 6:20 pm
I am not supporting corruption.
September 8th, 2009 at 6:26 pm
“..Hell you supporters of corruption will say anything to deflect from shocking standards in parliament..”
you mean like rampant gouging/troughing..?
as in ‘double-dip-bill-from-dipton’..?
phil(whoar.co.nz)
September 8th, 2009 at 6:32 pm
philu
I’m not supporting the Dipton Double Dipper – I’m a tax payer and really the colour of the party flag that is screwing me is inconsequential to how I feel about being screwed.
September 8th, 2009 at 6:50 pm
see the total ’savings’ from keys new perk-plan..
will be forty grand..(!)
when you have people like paul henry saying he is looking forward to the long life this story has..
y’know they ain’t gonna get away with this little card trick from key..
i can see this running into the next election..
(with the greens campaigning on a robust/transparent/’fair’ system of remuneration for politicians..
and there is one reason for the strength of this story..
(and it has echoes of mmp-introduction..)
in that it is voters-revenge…
the politicians have been ‘caught’..preaching ‘restraint/firing people..
..and snouts deep in the trough…
and as the economic conditions out here get worse..and the unemployed numbers rise..
the visceral imperative to ‘get them’/'make them pay’ will only get stronger and stronger..
(i think we are the end of round one..only..)
(and..bill english only gets an extra six grand a year..from this new perks-scheme..
..he must be really ‘hurting’..eh..?
cd the unemployed do a whip-around for him..?)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
September 8th, 2009 at 7:12 pm
“..DPF: National didn’t play any games against Winston. John Key just said he wouldn’t work with him..”
oh come off it dpf..!
national vs. peters was one of the most choleric/frantic/dirtiest campaigns ever..
you/kiwiblog were one of the main assasination-vehicles..if not the main one..
and it was relentless..
and it was never-ending from you..eh..?
i was waiting for:..”peters proven to be the anti-christ!’..
or:..’pictures of peters on ‘the grassy knoll’..
(trying for a serious rewrite of history there..eh..?..d.p.f..?..)
and..
“..And if you insist on continuing to make predictions about what will happen, then I will insist on reviewing your accuracy record. That is not shooting the messenger – it is called having a reputation]..”
and that is all you ever say..ianswer to anything/everything..that i was 0.8% ‘out’ in a minor-party figure election prediction..
meh!..eh..?
(as predictable as manolo with his ‘p’-cook bullshit..eh..?)
and if we are talking about accurate predictions/’reputation’..?
shall we look at you..?..and the global economic meltdown..?
i have been telling/warning you of that since aug ‘06..
(and i was amazed at how you just ignored the irrefutable evidence i placed in front of you from then on..
and you just ‘didn’t get it’..eh..?.
so..y’know..!
and ‘reputation’..?
wot..?..as in ‘tara te heke’..?
i think you know now just how many of yr own supporters you really pissed off with that one..eh..?
and then just the other day..you admitted ‘making stuff up’ about the greens..
cos’ the lie/idea was one you wanted to ‘get out there’..to blacken/hurt the greens..
i mean..!
w.t.f..!..eh..?
(wither ‘credibility’..?..eh..?..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
[DPF: Phil I've been saying what I think about Winston for around 10 years. 2008 was no different - he just gave me more material.]
September 8th, 2009 at 8:12 pm
Gueez Phil … for some one who lives in ‘Dak’ River Road you sure are giving credence to the name in painting Winston as whiter than white (no pun), pure, honest and a paragon of virtue who has elevated sock ironing to a art form.
Remind me please how he characterises the Green Party?
September 8th, 2009 at 8:17 pm
Philu retired hurt after losing a debate on this thread about Winston First.
This was my opening salvo on that thread:
I see Philu is back with his predictions.
Yet again, I feel obliged to point out that Philu’s predictions have been consistently wrong. Let’s see what he said about NZ First before the last election. A targeted Google search produced these gems:
Exhibit A:
Exhibit B:
Philu predicted that NZ First would be back in Parliament. Buzz, wrong! He predicted National would be in opposition. Buzz, wrong! And several other predictions he made (such as the one about the Maori Party not working with National) also proved to be wrong. No wonder he kept a very low-profile for the couple of days following the election!
Unsurprisingly, Philu had no come-back except personal abuse.
After Philu managed to do the unthinkable (well, maybe not) and dig himself into an even deeper hole than before, another Kiwiblog reader was prompted to comment:
Philu was wrong. Very wrong. Mathematically speaking, Winston First only got 82% of the way towards 5%. In other words, Philu’s prediction was 18% wrong. One one only needs to look back at the arrogant and smug tone of his predictions to see how funny it is now that Philu’s trying to minimise the reputational damage. He hates being called on his bullshit predictions, but as DPF says, it’s fair comment.
***Sits back and waits for yet more personal abuse from the Village
IdiotPhool***September 8th, 2009 at 9:02 pm
philu really needs to lay off adding Jif to his joints.
September 8th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
“..Mathematically speaking, Winston First only got 82% of the way towards 5%. In other words, Philu’s prediction was 18% wrong. .”
heh..!
phil(whoar.co.nz)
September 8th, 2009 at 10:07 pm
philu
Are you as dishonest with your declarations about being unable to work as Winston was about his donations? Do you hold up a big “NO” sign when you get asked if you are able to work ? Is this why you love the man so much?
September 8th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
This is what I mean about the hypocrisy of the left, Labour and the Greens.
We have a poster attacking National’s “hidden agenda” etc etc when they’ve hardly lurched to the right, while supporting the most corrupt, populist and deceitful politician of our era.
September 8th, 2009 at 10:15 pm
Philu, obviously you weren’t there during the last election. Must have been good drugs paid for by the taxpayers.
September 8th, 2009 at 10:30 pm
“..Is this why you love the man so much?.”
don’t ‘love’ him..
have never voted for him…
but i still think he is in with a chance..
(and b.t.w…can any horseshit about keys’ ‘principled-stand’..over peters..eh..?
key only ‘got in first’…he knew peters wouldn’t go with him..
peters loathes national most of all..
and key knew he would go with clark..if he had a choice..
so..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
September 8th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
The broken-arsed lawyer will never make a come back, his voters will be all pretty much be dead by the next election. Where is our $159k by the way? Thief.
September 9th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
DPF: “NZ First was at 1.5% in the last Roy Morgan poll. To make 5.0% is an additional 100,000 voters or so.”
NZ First polled higher than Act (party vote) in the 2008 general election. Thanks, MMP! The country really really wanted Douglas and the Rodent. Yeah…
September 9th, 2009 at 5:39 pm
RRM
Here is the rub, if NZ1 hadn’t been so bloody dishonest and self serving accepting donations and not declaring them while making policy concessions for big business then they would not have been ruled out by National and would not have made Labour look like a sheltered workshop for thieves and liars.
A lot of shit would have been different if Winston had been honest and honorable. Still it’s all MMP’s fault…
So tell me, how would Winston have done under FPP – Oh, that’s right – also failed.
September 9th, 2009 at 6:06 pm
RRM
Did you notice ACT won a seat and NZ1 didn’t ? Hell I’m not sure about this so perhaps you could help me out – if under FPP ACT won a seat and NZ1 didn’t but overall NZ1 got more votes than ACT, would ACT be in parliament and NZ1 not in parliament…. Think carefully RRM, you might need to discount the spin you have read about MMP being to blame for NZ1 not being in parliament to come to the right conclusion.
However if you want to talk about getting rid of the electorate votes (and therefore by implication the Maori seats) then I’m all for discussing that.
September 9th, 2009 at 7:18 pm
burt..you cannot possibly argue that act getting the numbers of actual votes they got..
and nz first getting the number of actual votes they got..
and their respective electoral representation..
is in any way equitable..
phil(whoar.co.nz)
September 9th, 2009 at 7:24 pm
and those so positive peters wouldn’t make 5% should factor in that national scooped a lot of outside votes..(from labour..and nz first..)
to get the result they got..
and that by next election..a lot of those swing voters won’t be in any mood to be ‘fooled again’..
that..and the swing to nationalism that will eventuate from the disintergrating local/international economy..
cd well see peters crack 5%…
(i mean..!..he still got 4.2%..even in his darkest hour..)
(tho’ it did make my skin crawl to hear him play the maori-bashing card the other day…that is peters at his most vile..)
phil(whoar.co.nz)
September 9th, 2009 at 7:49 pm
philu
Peters has always played the race card whenever he wanted to drum up support.