Kiwiblog

Judith Tizard does another valedictory speech – this time in the Herald on Sunday.

Whale has a summary:

Forty uses of the word “I“
Ten uses of the word “I’d“
Four­teen uses of the word “my”

Two aspects amused me:

While I grew up in a political family, my real apprenticeship was in the hard, cynical school of the Auckland Central Labour Party where Richard Prebble and his mates took no prisoners; where any tactic was fair if you won; where attack (personal or otherwise) was the first line of defence. And you never, never gave up, no matter what.

But I also found people I respected and enjoyed working alongside. Margaret Wilson, Helen Clark, Cath Tizard and Jim Anderton ran smart, inclusive, positive campaigns which taught me and many others like Mike Williams, Len Brown and Matt McCarten how to make a difference.

Matt McCarten has in fact been one of Tizard’s harshest critics.

I saw the on-going attacks on my character and my work, in blogs as well as in the Herald, as a Crosby-Textor/ Karl Rove-style attempt to destroy Labour leaders …

Oh goodness. Not just a Crosby-Textor style attack, but also a Karl Rove style attack. Judith left out Dick Cheney and Richard Nixon.

TV3′s Patrick’s Gower blog on Judith Tizard, Labour and the blogs has attracted a fair bit of attention. Gower states:

Labour and Phil Goff got scared into defusing the Tizard bomb because of two right-wing bloggers.

That means Goff is scared of the blogs.

Yes, you heard me right: Goff’s office (aka the ‘Goffice’) and the Labour Party hierarchy decided their Judith Tizard strategy because of what they read on Kiwiblog and Whaleoil.

That means Labour is scared of the blogs.

I don’t really attribute it as Patrick does, but I do think Labour have handled the whole Tizard issue incompetently. I’ll explain why later on.

Judith herself also seems to credit or blame Whale and me. The Herald on Sunday reported her as saying:

Those reasons … and to “stick it up them”.

Stick it up who? Phil Goff?

“I was actually thinking of David Farrar and Cameron Slater, et al. I wasn’t thinking about my former colleagues,” she says. “I don’t think it’s a particularly worthy thing to say, but I wouldn’t be human if I didn’t.”

I’ll also come back to exactly what I have and have not said about Judith. I’ve checked through all my posts about Judith, and as far as I can tell I’ve never called her nasty names, denigrated her performance etc. Here’s my first post on 16 December 2008 about the Tizard issue for the Mt Albert selection.

But here is the problem, Twyford is already an MP. So what happens if he wins the Mt Albert by-election? Well he would then resign his seat as a List MP, and that would bring in the next person on the Labour list. And who is No 38? It’s Judith Tizard!

Now Helen has won Mt Albert with some big majorities, but a lot of that has been personal. The party vote has been much closer. And if Mt Albert voters works out that voting for Twyford means Tizard returns to Parliament, then the seat could fall to a good National candidate.

I actually had a Labour MP tell me that my analysis was correct, and mirrored conversations that Labour had already started having about Mt Albert – prior to my blog post.

I blogged again on the issue on 16 February, 25 March and 26 March. So three posts over three months. Not exactly over the top.

On the 1st of April, the NZ Herald used the phrase “Tizard time-bomb” in a headline (note reporters do not write the headlines – sub-editors do).  They reported that:

Ms Tizard said Labour would be silly to buy into the “Tizard dilemma” and try and keep her out.

“If there is not a place for a 53-year-old woman who has been in elected positions for 26 of her 31 years, I guess I would want to know what the problem was.”

Ms Tizard said she had not yet been approached to stand aside, nor had she gone to the party to ask if there was a problem.

So four months after I first blogged about it, Labour had not even talked to Judith Tizard. How incompetent is that? The very first thing Labour should have done is make sure someone was regularly talking to Judith, and working out a joint strategy with her for dealing with the issue.

Labour leader Phil Goff said the Tizard dilemma was a “red herring”, but refused to openly back her return.

So again, no strategy on how to respond, and no agreed lines. But it gets worse.

On the 13th of April, it is reported that Labour ran focus groups asking Mt Albert residents what they thought of Judith Tizard.  How pissed off and insuting is that to their next on the list? For they did it without even talking to her.

The moment we started blogging on this issue, Labour should have had someone in constant dialogue with Judith. They should have been working out agreed lines that both Goff and Tizard would use until Judith made a decision about whether or not she would want to return if Twyford did win Mt Albert.

In National the person next on the list is treated as an MP in waiting. Someone senior (the President or Chief Whip off memory) is meant to chat to them every couple of months to see how they are doing, and to ascertain what their preference would be if a vacancy came up. It’s simple person management.

Instead they spent tens of thousands of dollars on focus groups behind Tizard’s back.

Then on 22 April, Labour made Twyford withdraw. And I bet you that Judith Tizard found out about this from the media – not directly from Labour. from what I can tell, neither the Party Leader or President spoke to her in the last two years.

Even after Hughes resigned, Andrew Little went to the media saying he wanted Louisa Wall in – before he spoke to Tizard.

So if people are angry about the treatment of Judith Tizard, they should direct their anger at Labour. Even a small degree of competence could have averted this all two years ago. They just had to talk to her and meet with her, and work out a position that didn’t involve them crapping on her from a huge height.

There has been comments on a number of blogs that Tizard was unfairly maligned, as she was not the worst MP in Parliament. I agree with that. In fact I blogged on her in May 2008:

Judith is somewhat controversial, but I have to say that my professional dealings with her on Internet issues have always been cordial and constructive, and she has been a very regular attendee of the Parliamentary Internet Caucus.

And I stand by what I said. On the issues I had direct engagement with her on, she was constructive and supportive. The worst name I think I have called her on the blog was a “plonker” and in fact that was referring to the next five candidates collectively.

The blog that has probably lampooned her the most viciously (but with humour) has been the Dim-Post.

I didn’t create the perception that Judith was not the most popular or hard working MP in Parliament – I just reported a pre-existing perception (Patrick Gower suggests Matt mcCarten first popularised it). If you wanted to ask me why this perception existed, I’d state two factors:

1. Tizard spent the entire nine years of the 5th Labour Government as a Minister outside Cabinet. Ministers outside Cabinet are meant to be for up and coming Ministers or for about to retire Ministers, not as a permament halfway house for Ministers who can’t get elected to Cabinet. She was seen as protected by Helen.
2. Tizard got given Auckland Issues, but never given any power, budget or authority in that role, so it became a joke, and the portfolio eventually abolished.

It is certainly true that there were other MPs in Parliament whose parliamentary careers were no more stellar than Judith’s. Most of the next four on the Labour List fall into that category. The Mt Albert dilemma may have come into play for Martin Gallagher, just as it did for Judith, if Gallagher had been next on the list.

In summary, Labour could have saved itself a huge amount of bad headlines and acrimoney, if they had picked up the phone two years and just talked to Judith Tizard, rather than run focus groups on how unpopular she might be.

In an act which reminds me of Winston’s coalition announcement, Judith revealed her decision on live television.

She’s obviously enjoyed her week of fame, and dragging it out as long as possible. I do wonder how happy Phil Goff and Labour are that they presumably had to find out from watching the TV what her decision was, rather than her letting her party know first.

Her decision is not to return, which disappoints me politically but I do make $600 on IPredict on it so there is a bright side

I presume the other four ex MPs will also stand aside and Louisa Wall will become the new Labour List MP.

Not an April Fools joke, but it seems $162,000 in return for knitting in the chamber for a few months, is going to be too hard to resist. The Herald reports:

Former Labour Party minister Judith Tizard is widely expected to announce tomorrow she will take the seat in Parliament left vacant by Darren Hughes. …

Ms Tizard is next in line on the party’s list and is expected to announce her decision on TVNZ’s Q+A tomorrow morning.

Sources said they understood she was leaning towards taking the seat despite Labour Party president Andrew Little’s clear preference for Louisa Wall, the former list MP who is standing in the safe seat of Manurewa.

If this is true, Phil Goff will be a very unhappy camper, and John Key a happy camper.

I understand that a deal has been done over the vacant Labour list spot. Expect an announcement later today that Judith Tizard has accepted the vacant list spot, and will be sworn in on Thursday 7 April.

However in a deal with Labour, she will resign her seat in May, and then Louisa Wall will come in. The other four higher placed list candidates have agreed to also stand aside.

This allows Tizard to make the valedictory speech she was “robbed” of, and also take part in the committee debate on the new Section 92A of the Copyright Act, which she originally authored. She wants to defend the original section, and explain why it was done. After that she will step aside and let Wall in.

Claire Trevett in the NZ herald writes:

Former Labour MP Judith Tizard is denying she is playing games by refusing to quickly kowtow to the Labour Party’s hints she should refuse the list seat left empty by the resignation of Darren Hughes. …

She had checked with Parliament’s officials and was told Mr Hughes had not yet formally resigned so the process to replace him had not yet begun.

If Labour had got Darren to do his formal resignation on Friday, then Tizard would have been forced to make a decision by now. As I read the Electoral Act, someone offered a list place must affirmatively acceppt the place or it will be offered to the next person. There is no provision for someone to say “I’ll decide in a few days”.

So if Labour had got Darren to formally resign, then Tizard would have had to make a decision by now, as the Electoral Commission would be under an obligation to fill the vacancy.

Judith is obviously loving keeping Phil Goff, and the country, on tenterhooks – and why wouldn’t she. I imagine she’s loving the fact she can drag it out. But the solution lies with Labour – get the resignation in to the Speaker asap.

TV3 reports Phil Goff saying:

“I’ve heard of no leadership concerns, nor any difference of opinion on the decisons that I’ve taken,” he says.

No difference of opinion? Well if Phil hasn’t heard of his colleagues concerns, it means they are talking to the media instead of him.

“You’re free to talk to any parliamentarians on the Labour side and get their own opinion they’ll tell you for themselves,” says Goff.

So we did – privately.

And they said:

“I wouldn’t say I’m on Phil’s side but there’s no one else.”

“A few of the guys are rattled but not enough for a spill.”

“Come on Bro – who would want that job?”

My God, not exactly stunning endorsements, are they. In fact lets translate what these three senior colleagues effectively said:

1. Phil’s a hopeless leader, but the alternatuves are worse
2. Some of the Caucus want to roll Phil, but not enough of them
3. We’re doomed and can’t win the next election, so no one wants the job

And then we have these words from the past and future Labour MP Judith Tizard:

The question is whether Phil Goff is the person to lead and he’s got to capture New Zealand’s imagination, and for New Zealand to see him as an alternative.

Patrick Gower then said:

It sounds like to me you don’t think Phil Goff is the right alternative Judith

And Judith’s response was:

I’ve said what I intend to say

Not exactly an endorsement of a loyal MP in waiting. She casts doubt on Phil Goff’s leadership, and then refuses to deny that she doesn’t think he is the right leader.

The New York branch will be happy.

The NZ Herald reports:

Labour Party president Andrew Little has sent a strong signal to the five people next in line for the list seat vacated by Darren Hughes to opt out and let Manurewa candidate Louisa Wall take it.

Mr Hughes’ resignation yesterday opens up his seat for the next person on the Labour Party list. That is Judith Tizard, followed by Mark Burton, Mahara Okeroa, Martin Gallagher and Dave Hereora. All are former MPs who did not get back into Parliament in 2008. The lacklustre line-up has long been a source of mockery from Labour’s opponents.

Mockery? No. Never.

Worth remembering that it was Goff himself who asked Twyford not to stand in Mt Albert, as they were so worried about having Judith Tizard return.

Judith Tizard, a former minister, said last night that it had not occurred to her that the situation would arise.

“I’ve had 18 years in Parliament. I know the attractions of it and I know the problems of it, so I will take time to make a decision.”

And don’t rush that decision.

She said that since leaving Parliament she had been “getting a life”, including doing volunteer work and recovering from hepatitis.

Ouch. That is a nasty illness, and does take time to get over.

Mr Little indicated Ms Tizard and the four below her should not waste too much time in making the decision. He said none was standing again this year, and it was logical for Ms Wall to take the slot.

I blogged a few days ago that this was logical for Labour. However it does rather go against the whole notion of informed voting. People voted Labour on the basis of a known party list for the 2008 – 2011 Parliament. I don’t approve of what is effectively rearranging the list after the election as the Greens often do, and now Labour looks to do. Its the same principle as you should stick to the policies you announced before the election.

But can Labour get all five MPs-in-waiting to turn the job down? How much money will they be turning down if they say no?

If they return as an MP, and retire at the election, they’ll actually get paid to three months after the election under s18(3)(b) of Civil List Act 1979. This means they’ll get paid for 11 months. What will they get paid in those 11 months?

1. Salary of $123,350
2. 20% super contribution of $24,670
3. Expenses allowance of $14,000

That’s a total of $162,020 Andrew Little is asking those candidates to turn down. And they have every right under the law of the land to become an MP and get paid that money, as Labour ranked them high enough up their party list. So we await with anticipation, their decisions.

Phil Goff has just announces that Darren Hughes has or will resign as a Member of Parliament.

No details yet, such as whether Judith Tizard is going to replace him, or if she has said she will decline the spot.

Like most people, I have always regarded Darren as a really nice and genuine guy, and it is very sad to see him leave Parliament like this. I say that recognising that there is a criminal complaint to resolve.  I also regarded him as one of the better MPs in Parliament and think given the opportunity he would have been a very competent senior Minister.

At best his judgement was seriously lacking on the night in question, and at worst he will face charges. Either way, it is a very sad way for someone who had a life-long dream of being an MP, to end their parliamentaary career.

I hope the Police reach a conclusion as quickly as possible, to their investigation.

The next two candidares on Labour’s list are Judith Tizard and Mark Burton. If a Labour List MP resigns before the election, then they will be offered their place in Parliament.

Judith Tizard is Auckland based and Mark Burton lives in Taupo.

So is it just a coincidence that Judith Tizard was seen on a flight to Wellington yesterday afternoon, and Mark Burton was seen on Lambton Quay late this morning?

The Herald reports:

Labour leader Phil Goff has announced that his MP Darren Hughes has been stood down from his portfolios while a police investigation into him is completed.

Mr Goff said Mr Hughes would remain in Parliament but he now expected the police inquiry to take longer than initially expected.

Mr Hughes’ jobs as education spokesman and senior whip will go to David Shearer and Steve Chadwick respectively.

This doesn’t mean Darren is finished as an MP. I don’t think enough information is available to jump to conclusions.

However losing these two roles was pretty inevitable. The senior whip is the maintainer of discipline in the caucus, and enough infomation has come out that would have made it very difficult to remain whip credibly.

The same goes for Education. This might be seen as unfair, but there is just no way you can go into an election with your proposed education minister being someone who picks up 18 year old first year students in bars (regardless of the issue of consent).

As I said, I don’t think one can conclude at this point about the wider career.  I actually still have money in iPredict against Judith Tizard returning as an MP.

Of course it is possible that Hughes will resign, yet Tizard will not return as an MP. How? Two main possibilities.

1. The House can resolve by 75% majority not to fill the vacancy, if it occurs within six months of the election – so after 26 May. You have to wonder though why National would decide to vote to keep Tizard from returning, and also is Labour really prepared to have one less MP in the House, than have Judith return?
2. Judith could refuse to take up her seat.

The problem with no (2) is the next in lines. Tizard is ranked No 38. Next at 39 is Mark Burton, 40 is Mahara Okeroa, 41 is Martin Gallagher and 42 Dave Heroera. At 43 you have Louisa Wall who has been selected as candidate for Manurea so is going to become an MP anyway. But to get Louisa in, you’d need to convince five seperate former Labour MPs to turn down six months salary and perks.

The NZ Herald reports:

Labour Party president Andrew Little says its next candidate in Te Atatu will have to repair damage done to it by ousted MP Chris Carter to stop the seat slipping into National’s hands.

The party will select its candidate today. After a threat from Mr Carter to stand against the party as an independent if his preferred candidate, Phil Twyford, does not win that selection, Mr Little said Mr Carter was now irrelevant and any remaining local support was “dwindling rapidly”.

How does Andrew than explain the letter from the Te Atatu LEC which said that they supported Chris Carter unamiously?

Mr Carter said he believed Mr Twyford had the best chance of keeping the seat out of National Party hands. Although not a local, Kingsland resident Mr Twyford had a profile from his work opposing the Super City. Mr Carter said if Mr Twyford was not chosen, he himself would consider standing again to keep the seat in centre-left hands.

Mr Twyford has the support of at least three unions with voting rights – the Service and Food Workers’ Union, the Maritime Union and the Amalgamated Workers Union.

Mr Little is standing aside from the selection panel because Mr McCracken was an EPMU organisere about five years ago. However, Mr Little said yesterday that the union had not endorsed any candidate.

With Chris Carter threatening to split the vote as an independent candidate if anyone but Twyford is selected, and with three unions behind him, and the EPMU neutral, even Phil should be able to clinch the nomination.

Mr Carter said he did not know what his political future held and he might leave politics before the election if a good job came along – forcing an unwelcome byelection for Labour.

And this is what will be his ultimate revenge. Twyford gets the nomination, then Carter suddenly picks up a job (maybe with the UN) and we have a by-election. And if Twyford wins the by-election, it brings Judith Tizard back into the Labour Caucus for seven months or so.

I think I have worked out the ultimate revenge scheme for Chris Carter, which would make Labour regret throwing him out.

It’s quite simple.

1. Chris waits for Labour to do candidate selection for Te Atatu
2. Then if they select front runner Phil Twyford, Chris resigns from Parliament
3. Having selected Twyford as the general election candidate, they have to stand him in the by-election also
4. Twyford wins the by-election
5. Judith Tizard rejoins the Labour Caucus as a List MP for the next year

I think the prospect of Judith returning to Caucus would make even Phil Goff join up to the “We forgive you Chris” club

The Herald reports:

Labour MP Phil Twyford will not seek nomination for the Mt Albert by-election, resolving the party’s Tizard dilemma. …

This “Vote Twyford, get Tizard” scenario was portrayed as a problem for Labour, particularly by right-wing blogs.

Labour leader Phil Goff was initially reticent when asked if he wanted Ms Tizard back and the party used a polling company to test voter feelings on her re-entering Parliament.

Mr Twyford has lived in Kingsland for 20 years, and was favoured to take over the seat from Helen Clark until the Tizard dilemma was raised.

There is a view that Labour’s party hierarchy placed too much emphasis on the effect of Mrs Tizard’s return, to the detriment of Mr Twyford.

Labour leader Phil Goff said the party had not panicked, but rather was unsure how the electorate would react to voting for someone who was already in Parliament and getting someone else.

I first blogged on their “Tizard problem” on 16 December 2008. I said:

So you see the problem for Labour. Either Helen has to stay on for the full term, or someone other than Twyford is the candidate, or they risk the public working out voting for Labour will bring a plonker back in on the list and losing your predecessor’s seat in a byelection would see Goff rolled.

Goff could not risk that possibility.

The Dominion Post predicted on 1 January that Clark would go off overseas in 2009, and that Twyford would be her replacement. It took a few months for thr media to start to pick up the issue.

The Herald on 11 February stated Twyford was the likely sucessor.

On 14 February in the Dom Post was the first mention of Tizard after Clark’s candidacy for the UND job went public (also first covered on Kiwiblog). It was more factual than stating it was an “issue”. On 25 February the Dom Post still reported Twyford as the favourite.

On 25 March Newstalk ZB was also picking Twyford.

That night on TV, was the first real mention in the media of the Tizard dilemma, following leaks from Labour that they were working on keeping her out.

So you read it here first three months early! And of course repeated a few times since to remind people. I never really thought Labour would blink, but they did! T be fair to Labour, it may not just have been fear of losing the seat (it is their safest seat after all), but equally fear of how having Judith return would lead to merciless teasing in the House.

Over on Whale Oil, he has a screenshot of a Facebook discussion where Peter Dunne comments to Mark Unsworth (who was exressing sorrow that Twyford misses out because of someone else’s face not fitting) that the problem was not just Tizard but also Burton, Okeroa, Gallagher, Hereora, Wall and Soper being next on the list!

Now Tizard may still end up an MP. It just needs a Labour List MP to die or resign. Let us hope they all get their flu injections!

The Dom Post reports:

Business studies lecturer Hamish McCracken, Auckland city councillor Glenda Fryer, Auckland University politics head tutor Meg Bates and employment lawyer Helen White have all confirmed their candidacies.

I would be surprised if McCracken has much of a chance. Not based on any specific knowledge, but the reality he has stood many times before for Labour and never been ranked highly. In 1999 he was no 60, in 2002 no 52, in 2005 no 49 and in 2005 no 50. I can’t see a fifth time lucky.

Bates is well regarded and well connected as a former electorate agent. Her age will be a factor though. Helen White could do very well too – she has a professional career established, and has union support.

Fryer is more unlikely, but not as unlikely as McCracken. She doesn’t particularly represent rejuvenation, and her Auckland City Council junket draconian attempt to ban sign billboards will be fresh in some minds.

But the potential candidate cited as Miss Clark’s favoured successor, list MP Phil Twyford, is still deciding whether to put his name forward a week before nominations close. Mr Twyford said he had discussed the matter with senior party members, but declined to comment further.

Twyford is a popular and respected MP for Labour. Definitely one of the stars of the future, and no doubt wants a safe seat as security. But by pure bad luck the Tizard issue is a real factor, and no one knows how much. So his choice is does he go for Mt Albert in 2009, or wait for another safe seat to come up, such as Mt Roskill in probably 2014?

At Backbenchers last night they discussed the Tizard issue, and it is fair to say no one was wamly welcoming the possible return. In fact there was a hilarious moment as Wallace Chapman went up to the loudest noisiest most partisan pro-Labour table, and asked them if they wanted Judith Tizard back in Parliament. One of them fell mute, while another could only repeat the official script that the issue is about the best candidate, not about who comes in on the list. You know there are problems, when not even your most partisan crowd supporters will say on camera they want Judith back.

And over on Labour Grassroots, members and supporters are not keen. Some quotes:

Suzanne says:

Headlines that say “Goff: Happy to have Judith Tizard back” says nothing to me about a party that wants to revitalise, bring in some new faces, get behind some issues that central Aucklanders care about.Like the Supercity, the environment. If Labour is behind Tizard it makes a mockery of the party recreating getting more in touch with its grassroots.

And Tanya:

Still, the voters are pretty MMP savvy these days, and I believe will be annoyed at Goff for backing Tizard back into parliament, after the voters said no.

And Darren:

Well said, Suzanne. I could not agree more. Labour needs ‘new blood’ everywhere, and to be SEEN to be bringing new faces in at every opportunity. Ms. Tizard did not strike me as a particularly effective MP. Certainly her hand on the on the intellectual property tiller steered it way off course and into the sea of stupidity…. witness the mess of s92a!?!

Her electorate obviously didn’t think she did a good job either, so why the hell would Phil want her back? Regardless of his motivation, which was obviously to keep Tizards’ supporters happy in touchy electoral times, it just makes our Parliamentary leader look horrendously out of touch.

And finally Caitlin:

This whole hullaballoo about Judith Tizard was started by media rumours (probably started by political opposition) and while some Labour activists and supporters may have qualms, we have to continue to pull together as a party to make sure we win this seat. We can’t be complacent – an assumption of victory was one of the problems with the Auckland Central campaign.

Caitlin is right that a party needs to be unified to win, but how motivated will supporters be to bring Judith back into Parliament?

There is also an associated danger with all this. The media will cover the by-election, and the media always have to have some big issues for the by-election. In TKC it was Stratford Hospital. In Tamaki it was send Wellington a message. Now with Mt Albert there may be no big issues on policy – National has just won an election and has gone so centrist it is probably going to even cancel the future tax cuts a couple of weeks before the by-election. So it is hard to see that there will be major policy issues at play in the by-election (unless the Govt decides to knock down 400 local homes for a motorway). But if there are no major policy issues, then issues such as the Tizard dilemma will become a major issue, because the media will make it an issue. They’ll do vox pops on the street asking people about it. They’ll do electorate polls and publish them. People will ask questions at meet the candidate meetings.

Now maybe Mt Albert voters won’t give a damn, even if the media do. They might only care about who will be their local MP, not who will enter Parliament as a result of their vote. But this is the fun thing with by-elections – they are notoriously unpredictable – and with the Greens planning a vigorous campaign, it really will be interesting.

UPDATE: Today’s Dom Post editorial talks about the Tizard issue, noting:

Though the parliamentary party is in capable hands leader Phil Goff and deputy Annette King are respected for their knowledge Labour must nonetheless now find a new generation of leaders to carry the party forward.

How ironic, then, that the departure of Miss Clark and Dr Cullen might reopen the door for two has-beens, Damien O’Connor and Judith Tizard. …

A party that is poised to welcome back Mr O’Connor and Ms Tizard is far from positioned to resume the Treasury benches.

NZPA reports:

The New Zealand Herald on Monday reported that Labour used UMR Research to hold focus groups meetings of Mt Albert voters. One question asked about Ms Tizard in terms of well-known people or celebrities standing for politics.

Mr Goff defended the use of focus groups saying they were a good way of getting a sense of local issues and how people would respond to particular candidates.

And they are common in national politics, but very rare for a by-election, And you have to wonder who will get to read the results of the focus groups? Will everyone at the selection meeting get it, or just the head office appointees?

“I think what we want from Mt Albert actually is a local person, a person who can identify with the needs and aspirations of the people of Mt Albert,” he told TV One’s Breakfast programme.

He disagreed the expensive measures showed Labour was nervous. “I’m not nervous about the outcome, I think we will win Mt Albert but we’re not complacent about that.”

They are very expensive. And Labour generally is thought to be very short of cash. That suggests how seriously they are taking this.

Mr Goff said when a vacancy came up on the list it was automatically filled by the next person on it.

Unless you are in the Green Party and they threaten and harass you to give up your list seat to let someone lower down the list enter Parliament.

Asked how he felt about the potential return of Ms Tizard, who lost Auckland Central to National’s Nicky Kaye, Mr Goff said: “I am very happy to see any former Labour colleague back in parliament.

That’s Nikki incidentally. And if Goff is so happy, why is he spending so much money focus grouping how the public will respond?

“Judith Tizard is a very experienced member, very well respected particularly in the arts and culture community where she has worked so hard for so long.”

If Judith does return, that will make her one of the most experienced members of the Goff team. The only Labour MPs who will have greater Ministerial experience are Goff and King.

So will Goff appoint Judith to Labour’s frontbench? Her experience would suggest she is a logical choice. At a minimum he would have to have her in the Shadow Cabinet, you would think.

And what portfolios will he give her? She is the third longest serving Minister. Cunliffe is doing quite a good job in Finance, so maybe Education or Health?

The NZ Herald reports:

The Labour Party is sounding out Mt Albert voters on the byelection – including asking whether they want a “celebrity” MP and testing feelings on Judith Tizard re-entering Parliament.

Labour commissioned UMR Research group to hold several two-hour, focus group meetings of Mt Albert voters in the lead-up to the byelection, following the resignation of former Prime Minister Helen Clark.

Now focus groups are part and parcel of politics. However this is the first time I can recall a party commissioning one (or several) for a by-election. Polls are relatively common, but focus groups less so.

And when you consider that Mt Albert is Labour’s safest seat, that gives some indication as to the degree of nervousness within Labour’s ranks. You see focus groups are not cheap. I do not know UMR’s fees, but for four or five focus groups, the cost I suspect is a five figure sum.

So why would you spend so much money on such a safe seat? Because you are worried you may lose it to a Vote Twyford, Get Tizard campaign. There is no doubt that Twyford is the preferred candidate – but they are nervous over the power of such a campaign. They failed to get Tizard to relinquish her list place, so they are testing the waters.

Interestingly the Electoral Finance Act is no longer in force. So there is no $1,000 limit on an individual or organisation running its own education campaign in the by-election. A group could use direct mail to send a personalised letter to every voter (costs around $20,000) explaining how a vote for that nice Mr Twyford will result in that nice Miss Tizard becoming an MP again. And it could quote from various newspaper articles about the desirability of this. Maybe it could also remind people of s92A, what people say about it, and how Judith says it is a good law that should not be changed. Will Mt Albert residents want their Internet access at risk, if they vote for that nice Mr Twyford? Well, okay – that is probably stretching things too far – but you can see how much fun a third party campaign could have.

Anyway back to the article:

One participant said they were asked about Ms Tizard as part of a wider question about “celebrity” or well-known people standing for politics. Examples included Michael Jones, television presenter Paul Henry, comedian Mike King, actor Oscar Kightley and NZX boss Mark Weldon.

The focus group indicated concern about the possibility of a “Vote Twyford, get Tizard” campaign impacting on Labour’s chances.

That is an interesting sentence. Presumably the Herald has been in contact with one or more of the persons who took part in the focus groups. And they “indicated concern”.

Ms Tizard lost the Auckland Central seat to Nikki Kaye but would re-enter Parliament to fill list MP Phil Twyford’s list spot if he was the party’s Mt Albert candidate and won. The participant said the group members were asked what they knew about Mr Twyford – who lives in Kingsland and is favoured by Helen Clark.

There is another risk to having Tizard come back in to replace Twyford. No less than losing MMP. You see the Government has pledged to have a referendum on MMP. Now personally I don’t think people will vote for change (partly thanks to John Key). but if I was running an anti-MMP campaign, then I would use the Mt Albert by-election as a reason to dump MMP – the fact defeated electorate candidates can come back on the list.

Labour’s intensive polling of Mt Albert voters indicates the party is nervous about holding on to the electorate, which has always been viewed as a safe Labour seat, and where Helen Clark was MP for 27 years.

Just 2000 votes separated National and Labour in the party vote last election – and National’s popularity has soared since then.

Yes but the correct comparison is CR to CL on the party vote and that is 55% CL to 40% CR.

Labour Party president Andrew Little confirmed that the party had commissioned the focus groups and was polling in the electorate. He said it was common to test for important local issues.

Polling is more traditional. In Labour’s case it is going to be combining the polling and focus group results. The difficult scenario for them is if the poll shows that say Twyford can win the seat by 5% or so, but the focus groups show up to 10% of voters could change their votes if exposed to a Vote Twyford, get Tizard campaign. The question for Labour then is – do they risk it? Or in the words of Dirty Harry – do you feel lucky today punk?

If the polling shows Labour/Twyford way way ahead, then they can select him without worrying about a Twyford/Tizard campaign. But if things are closer, the head office may plump for another candidate such as Meg Bates.

Does anyone know the date of the selection meeting for Mt Albert for Labour? I understand media are allowed to attend and report on them, so I might pop along for the fun!

There has been some interesting commentary on Clark’s valedictory speech – mainly commenting on the total lack of reflection that she ever did anything wrong.

Guyon Espiner blogs:

Her valedictory was like her premiership: cautious and competent; meticulous and managerial.  I’d hoped Helen Clark might show us a flicker of feeling; a sliver of humanity; a scintilla of humility. …

It was similar when she spoke to us on TVNZ’s Q+A show last Sunday. There was no acknowledgement of her mistakes. Could she not have conceded to mishandling the anti-smacking law? To rushing the Electoral Finance Act? To being a little too lenient in her handling of Winston Peters?

I don’t think she considers any of them mistakes. Just as she has never conceded she was wrong to sign paintings that others painted. Her career has been marked by a refusal to say sorry and to blame everyone else.

I think she owed it to Labour to show a little contrition about the election defeat.

Clark sticks to the line that New Zealanders only voted National because they felt they could have the same policies with a new face. With that statement there is the underlying belief that before too long voters will realise the grave mistake they made in throwing her out.

The Dim-Post has a shorter version of the Clark speech:

The NZ Herald has upgraded Judith Tizard from a dilemma to a time-bomb.

Judith sees her return as a matter of  demographics:

Ms Tizard said Labour would be silly to buy into the “Tizard dilemma” and try and keep her out.

“If there is not a place for a 53-year-old woman who has been in elected positions for 26 of her 31 years, I guess I would want to know what the problem was.”

Well obviously I do not speak for Labour, but my responses would be:

• It’s nothing to do with your gender or age
• It is about rejuvenation – Labour got kicked out at the last election, and Labour won’t win next time unless they have some fresh faces

Labour leader Phil Goff said the Tizard dilemma was a “red herring”, but refused to openly back her return.

No shit.

From The Standard.

The Herald rates the chances of potential contenders for the Mayoralty of Auckland (assuming the Government adopts the key recommendations):

They are:

1. John Banks – the front runner
2. Len Brown – good to very good
3. Mike Lee – good
4. Bob Harvey – average to good
5. Paul Holmes – average
6. Peter Leitch – poor to average
7. Andrew Williams – poor
8. Judith Tizard – poor
9. Blair Strang – dead on arrival

I have not read the full report yet. It will be interesting if the vote for the Mayor is FPP or STV.

Claire Trevett has a good article on the pending Mt Albert by-election but makes one big error:

National’s candidate in the 2008 election was Ravi Musuku who has said he wishes to stand in a byelection. However, if he won, it would mean their bottom list MP – Aaron Gilmore – had to leave.

No, no, no no. This is not the case. To be fair to Claire many many people think this is the law, but it is not. Proportionality is not maintained if a by-election sees a seat change hands. There is no way at all a List MP can ever be forced out of Parliament because of a by-election (or an electoral petition). They are there for the whole term unless they do something stupid like become a Dutch citizen.

Helen Clark’s departure will force a byelection in the Mt Albert seat she has held for the past 28 years.

The Herald understands Labour expects to stand a newcomer in the seat, rather than a sitting list MP – as part of its efforts to refresh its ranks.

The effect of standing a newcomer would be to block Judith Tizard from returning to Parliament on the list.

The Mt Albert seat is a Labour stronghold and new list MP Phil Twyford, who lives in the electorate, was previously tipped as most likely to take over.

However, Labour has reconsidered. It would mean Damien O’Connor returning to Parliament to take up Mr Twyford’s list spot – leaving the next spot open for Judith Tizard to take up when Michael Cullen leaves, as he is expected to later this year.

Its a bit unfortunate for Twyford, but things have changed in recent weeks. I blogged in detail about the problem of how a Twyford win could bring Tizard in, as long ago as last year. I concluded:

So you see the problem for Labour. Either Helen has to stay on for the full term, or someone other than Twyford is the candidate, or they risk the public working out voting for Labour will bring a plonker back in on the list and losing your predecessor’s seat in a byelection would see Goff rolled.

Now there was a general expectation that Judith would not want to return, and maybe they could get Burton, Okerao, Gallager and Hereora to stand aside also. She has no rapport with Goff, has no chance of getting a senior role, and lost a seat that Labour has held for 95 years. But multiple sources have confirmed that she is absolutely hellbent on returning as she wants to “restore her reputation” and also defend s92A – she even lambasts her former colleagues as not understanding it.

You can imagine the panic this has caused in Labour’s ranks. It would be near impossible for Labour to lose Mt Albert, but the thought of the by-election becoming a referendum on what Aucklanders thing of Judith is the stuff of nightmares for them. So Twyford loses the chance to have a safe seat for 2011.

On the plus side, if Twyford is patient he might be able to grab Mt Roskill in 2014

Newstalk ZB reports:

Ms Clark’s departure from Parliament has been expected since Labour’s election loss. When she does go, it will mean a by-election in Mt Albert which Miss Clark has held comfortably since 1981.

New Labour MP Phil Twyford, who stood on the North Shore at the last election, is favourite to stand as the party’s candidate in the seat. However, a surprise pick could be former Auckland Central MP Judith Tizard, who has been seen several times in recent months around Parliament and is eager to get back into politics.

The irony is that even if Twyford is the candidate, him winning the seat would see Judith return to Parliament (if Damien O’Connor replaces Michael Cullen first). So no matter who the candidate, is – a vote for Labour could be a vote to return the creator and remaining sole defender of s92A to Parliament.

The Dom Post on Saturday looked at the battle for Mt Albert within Labour:

Party sources say the leading contender to replace her is newly elected list MP Phil Twyford, who unsuccessfully contested the North Shore electorate last year.

Ha I have been saying that for months.

Two women are also bidding for the job: Auckland City Eden-Albert councillor Glenda Fryer and deposed cabinet minister Judith Tizard.

I’d be amazed if either of them were selected.

Under the Electoral Act the vacant list seat would be filled by the next unelected person on Labour’s list former Corrections minister Damien O’Connor, who lost his West Coast seat. He famously submitted his resignation to Miss Clark last year in a text message from Hong Kong Airport. She did not accept it.

Mr O’Connor could not be contacted, but if he turns down the invitation the next person on the list is Miss Tizard.

Yes Judith could be back either way, as Cullen retiring and Twyford winning Mt Albert would bring two people in on the list – O’Connor and Tizard.

I understand Labour sources are fairly relaxed about O’Connor coming back in. He didn’t do great as a Minister but has rural appeal, which they need.

Labour’s nighmare is the block of five after O’Connor. They are:

1. Judith Tizard
2. Mark Burton
3. Mahara Okeroa
4. Martin Gallagher
5. Dave Hereora

So the rejuvenation caused by Cullen or Clark going would be to bring back in an MP who lose their seat, and who has no chance of ever making Cabinet agin – or to bring in (Hereora) an MP who was so invisible that he made Larry Sutherland look like a dynamic high profile MP.

The next on the list after Heroera is Louisa Wall. I rate Wall pretty highly – she’s smart, good on policy, and articulate. She did not make many friends in Labour though, hence her low list ranking. However after her is Lesley Soper, whom no one in Labour wants back, so I understand their aim is to get Wall in to replace Cullen or Clark (whomever goes second).

But to get Wall in, they have to convince not one, but five former MPs to stand aside. As the Greens found out with Mike Ward this can be easier said than done.

Helen doesn’t want to spend the next three years as a backbench Opposition MP. And Phil Goff doesn’t want her to overshadow him. So normally we would expect to see a by-election in Mt Albert next year.

But it is proving rather difficult for Labour. You see Michael Cullen, being a List MP, will probably resign from Parliament in early 2009. This will bring in No 37 on the Labour List, Damien O’Connor. Now some in Labour probably think Damien should give way to new blood, but they’ll tolerate him returning.

Then we have Helen resigning, which will trigger a by-election. Labour will need to select a candidate for this seat, and let there be no mistake – Helen will pick the candidate. And who is favoured to get her blessing – List MP Phil Twyford. Twyford is highly regarded.

But here is the problem, Twyford is already an MP. So what happens if he wins the Mt Albert by-election? Well he would then resign his seat as a List MP, and that would bring in the next person on the Labour list. And who is No 38? It’s Judith Tizard!

Now Helen has won Mt Albert with some big majorities, but a lot of that has been personal. The party vote has been much closer. And if Mt Albert voters works out that voting for Twyford means Tizard returns to Parliament, then the seat could fall to a good National candidate. I can imagine a lot of money would be spent pointing out the nightmare scenario.

Now some might say, it’s easy. Just get Judith to agree to stand aside. After all, she probably doesn’t want to be back there by herself.

But who is next on the list. Well the next four candidates are Mark Burton, Mahara Okeroa, Martin Gallagher and Dave Hereora. The four stooges without the humour. Persuading Mt Albert residents to vote for any of those to return to Parliament could be a challenge.

So who is next in place 43? Louisa Wall. Now I think Louisa was a talented MP and would be a boon to Labour’s ranks. But she is seriously unpopular with many of her colleagues who don’t want her back. So who is next at 44? Lesley Soper – she would attract more shoe throwing in a Labour Caucus meeting than George W Bush attracts in Iraq.

Spots 45 to 49 are all vacant as they won their electorate seats. Finally in spot 50 you have Hamish McCracken. Well at least he is an Aucklander. However having been given three unwinnable seats and rankings in a row, he is hardly in high favour.

So you see the problem for Labour. Either Helen has to stay on for the full term, or someone other than Twyford is the candidate, or they risk the public working out voting for Labour will bring a plonker back in on the list and losing your predecessor’s seat in a byelection would see Goff rolled.

So I am picking Helen won’t be going anywhere until they work out a way around their dilemna.