Spinning the Polls

From Jordan I’ve collected below a few quotes on the polls from Nov 2004 to June 2005

What is strange is that no matter how much the gap is, or how much the trend changes there’s always some good news in it for Labour!

Nov 2004:

Labour remains in a very commanding position. (gap 11%, change +4%)

This poll and the last show that Labour is continuing to benefit from the very strong economy and excellent employment situation, and that National/ACT’s attacks aren’t getting much traction. (gap 6%, change +1%)

Dec 2004:

The story is great though; 20 points! What a fabulous way to head into Christmas. Everybody knows now that Don Brash is the John Kerry of New Zealand politics (gap 20%, change -15%)

A good result, which still shows Labour more likely to form a government than any other party. (gap 7%, change -4%)

Indeed, things are better for us than they were in December 2001. (gap 12%, change +6%)

Jan 2005:

it indicates is that people came through summer with their political perceptions unchanged from last year, and with Labour still enjoying a 10% gap over National in this poll, the same as in December. (gap 10%, change 0%)

This poll should not be making anybody in the National Party very happy at all (gap 10%, change -10%)

So much for Orewa II (gap 8%, change -6%)

Feb 2005

One can only surmise that the government is delighted (gap 10%, change +3%)

There is still no indication that people have decided it’s time for a change in government, and as the last post shows too, Labour is in a much better position than in February 2004. (gap 5%, change -7%)

Quite a nice 55th birthday present for the PM (gap 11%, change +1%)

March 2005

National could not form a government (gap 9%, change -1%)

If this pattern continues through the April and May polls, barring accidents it becomes a reasonably safe bet that Labour will be returned for an historic third term of office. (gap 11%, change +6%)

April 2005

Another sound result (gap 13%, change +4%)

So – what does one make of this? Brash becoming more unpopular, National votes falling away to New Zealand First… (gap 11%, change +5%)

I don’t think this poll shows any decisive change in sentiment … I am broadly content with where this poll shows things are. (gap 7%, change -4%)

May 2005

An amazing result for a poll (gap 8%, change +1%)

This morning’s Herald Poll was billed in advance as a major change to the political weather, but it does not seem to be showing that. he poll still shows the same thing all the other polls have been showing for months: there’s no great public desire to change the government. (gap 11%, change -2%)

Frankly I am stunned and pleased by the results. (gap 7%, change +0%)

This is bizarre, and with the preferred PM numbers again shows that the right are quite unsettled about Brash. His support as preferred PM isn’t even solid among National voters (gap 7%, change -5%)

Once again a slow shift is in evidence, backed up by the Herald poll on Saturday. (gap 4%, change -4%)

June 2005

In all my previous comments on the polls this year, I’ve expressed surprise that Labour has maintained a lead (gap -1%, change -8%)

Tonight TV3 will report the results of their latest political poll, which are good news for Labour (gap 4%, change -7%)

The good thing about this poll is that after months of sustained attacks, the Labour Party is still polling where it got in the 1999 and 2002 elections – without campaigning (gap -2%, change -9%)