Census helps GOP

CNN reports:

The US Census Bureau announced Monday that the total population of the United States has topped 331 million people, marking the country’s second slowest population growth rate in US history. Amid that, Texas will gain two seats in the redistricting process, the results found.Additionally, Colorado, Florida, Montana, North Carolina and Oregon will each gain one seat in Congress.California, Illinois, Michigan, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia will all lose congressional seats ahead of the 2022 midterm elections.

Okay so we have:

  • Texas +2 (R)
  • Colorado +1 (D)
  • Florida +1 (R)
  • Montana +1 (R)
  • North Carolina +1 (R)
  • Oregon +1 (D)
  • California -1 (D)
  • Illinois -1 (D)
  • Michigan -1 (R)
  • New York -1 (D)
  • Ohio -1 (R)
  • Pennsylvania -1 (D)
  • West Virginia -1 (R)

So the net effect if these had applied in 2020 would be two more electoral college votes for Republicans and two less for Democrats.

The impact on the House is harder to gauge as it will depend on how district maps are redrawn, and by whom. Here is who is in control in each state affected:

  • Texas +2 (R)
  • Colorado +1 (I)
  • Florida +1 (R)
  • Montana +1 (I)
  • North Carolina +1 (R)
  • Oregon +1 (D)
  • California -1 (I)
  • Illinois -1 (D)
  • Michigan -1 (I)
  • New York -1 (D)
  • Ohio -1 (R)
  • Pennsylvania -1 (B)
  • West Virginia -1 (R)

I means an independent commission sets boundaries and B a bipartisan commission.

Of the seven extra seats, Republicans control redistricting for four of them and Democrats for one. If I had to guess which party gains or loses a house seat in each state I’d say:

  • Texas +2 (R)
  • Colorado +1 (R)
  • Florida +1 (R)
  • Montana +1 (D)
  • North Carolina +1 (R)
  • Oregon +1 (D)
  • California -1 (D)
  • Illinois -1 (R)
  • Michigan -1 (D)
  • New York -1 (R)
  • Ohio -1 (D)
  • Pennsylvania -1 (R)
  • West Virginia -1 (R)

So the Republicans could gain (all other things equal) five House seats but lose four so a net gain of one.

But the House majority is only five or so, so the redistricting could be of significant impact.

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