General Debate 25 September 2023
Lindsay Mitchell writes:
While there will not be another quarterly release of benefit numbers prior to the election, limited weekly reporting continues and is showing an alarming trend.
Because there is a seasonal component to benefit number fluctuations it is crucial to compare like with like. In the ten week period to September 15, 2023 the number of people on a main benefit has risen by 6,768 or almost two percent, whereas in the ten week period ending September 16, 2022 the numbers were virtually flat with a very small decrease of 141 recipients.

This is pretty huge. Almost 700 people a week are moving onto a benefit.
Stuff reports:
National has promised to return many State Highways to 100kph from 80kph if elected.
Speaking in the Wairarapa on Sunday, National’s transport spokesperson, Simeon Brow said his party would repeal and replace the rules that set speed limits so economic impacts – including travel times – and the views of road users and local communities counted, alongside safety.
“We anticipate this resulting in highways going back to 100kmh speed limits, except where it would be unsafe to do so. Similarly, we’ll restore local roads to 50 km/h from 30, except where that would be unsafe,” he said.
It would also increase speed limits to 110km/h on the Kapiti Expressway and Transmission Gully, and on the Puhoi to Warkworth motorway if a current review finds that would be safe.
All excellent stuff. If you follow the logic of the current Government then every road in NZ should have a 30 km/hr speed limit. Speed limits should be based on the quality of the road.
The Waikato Times reports:
A Hamilton meter reader bashed on the job was left with such severe brain injuries he no longer recognised his own children, who described him as an echo of the man they once knew.
Even the victim’s hugs were different, a court heard.
Sentenced to 28 months’ jail Adam Battensby, 33, wept in the dock as his own father told him he had brought shame on their family.
The offender is a recidivist who was on bail for other offending at the time. He almost killed the victim and has left him severely brain damaged.
But he could be out on parole in just nine months. Incredible.
National has released a 100 point plan for rebuilding NZ’s economy. Some the points I think are worth hightailing are:
Voters can choose change or they can choose the status quo.
A reader writes in:
The S.B. Group is a registered third-party promoter set up for the 2023 election.
The Group runs ‘VoteWise‘, an astroturf campaign explicitly focused on promoting Shane Jones’s New Zealand First candidacy in Northland.
The Group is directed by Glenn Inwood (along with Paul Heffernan and Daniel Tither).
A Dom Post article outlines The Group’s links to Voices For Freedom and Inwood’s historic ties to the fisheries, whaling, and tobacco industries. Inwood once was spokesperson for Te Ohu Kai Moana (the Treaty of Waitangi Fisheries Commission) when it was shared by Shane Jones.
In an interview with The Platform, Glenn Inwood refuses to disclose The Group’s donors.
According to the Electoral Commission’s Third Party Handbook:
If your election advertisement promotes a candidate or registered party, the full cost of that advertisement counts towards both your expense limit and that candidate or party’s expense limit.
The candidate spending limit is $32,600, which could easily be reached by New Zealand First before any input from third parties.
The S.B. Group appears to be exploiting a loophole in electoral law:
Third-party promoters (who usually run nationwide campaigns) only need to disclose expenses post-election if those expenses surpass $100,000 – which is unlikely in the case of The S.B. Group’s campaign for an isolated electorate seat. This means The S.B. Group can file its expenses as ‘N/A’ and there will be no evidence of any breach in spending limits. (See 2020’s third-party returns for examples of groups doing this for nationwide campaigns.)
Additionally:
You must get written authorisation from a party secretary or candidate before you can promote that party or candidate in your advertising.
Of course, if Shane Jones has not given The S.B. Group authorisation, then he can protect himself by saying he has nothing to do with the VoteWise campaign. But it beggars belief that he is not at least aware of the campaign. The S.B. Group and NZ First appear to be sharing video material for use in their respective ads.
Key questions for Shane Jones:
Are you familiar with The S.B. Group or its VoteWise campaign?
Liam Hehir looks at the rules for the Leighton Baker Party and finds:
This raises real issues about whether such a set of rules should have been accepted by the Electoral Commission as the Electoral Act requires democratic candidate selection.
Labour and Labour MPs have told so many lies about National, that National has set up a website to keep track of them and expose them.
We have never before had an incumbent Government polling in the mid 20s during a campaign, so I guess this is what happens when they do.
Stephanie Martin at the NZ Initiative writes:
Imagine the outrage if it were revealed that our medical schools ignored scientific research in the training of doctors. Yet, when it comes to training teachers, ignoring science seems acceptable.
In Who Teaches the Teachers, a New Zealand Initiative report released this week, Michael Johnston and I demonstrate that the science of learning is almost completely absent from teacher education programmes in New Zealand.
The science of learning applies research on human memory, attention and motivation to classroom practice. It provides valuable insights into the teaching practices that would best serve our young learners. Our young people should be reaping the benefits of these insights.
Yet, they are not.
For the report, we analysed the themes of the 221 courses that contribute to teacher education programmes in New Zealand universities. Most courses had at least two themes, some as many as five.
The most common themes were core aspects of teaching: curriculum and pedagogy. That is as it should be.
Two other themes, though, presented a striking contrast.
The next most common theme was social justice, which was associated with 130 of the 221 courses. There is little evidence that teaching based on social justice ideology is effective. In fact, educational data suggest the opposite. In recent decades, as social justice pedagogy has become increasingly prevalent, the educational attainment of New Zealand’s young people has declined.
The least common theme was the science of learning, associated with just two courses.
Social justice pedagogy emphasises cultural differences in how students learn. On the other hand, the science of learning focuses on the ultimate biological similarity of human learning. Just as we all have hearts, livers and lungs, we also have similar perceptual, memory and attentional systems that govern our learning.
People are more alike than different in how they learn. Whatever social justice theorists may contend, there is a universal cognitive architecture underpinning human learning. Ironically, the most effective method of serving educational equality would be to use pedagogy based on scientific understanding of that architecture.
One might wonder why universities seem reluctant to provide their teachers-in-training with the best understanding of decades of research on the science of learning. Achieving a greater focus on research-led teaching was why teacher training shifted to universities in the first place.
For the sake of our young people, we need a radical shift towards science-informed teacher education.
One can’t overstate how important this issue is. I hope the next Government looks to take action over teacher training so there is greater focus on the science of learning.
The Taxpayers’ Union revealed:
The Taxpayers’ Union can reveal that as part of the Tax Working Group appointed by Grant Robertson, and chaired by the late Michael Cullen, Treasury and IRD conducted analysis on what percentage of exempting GST from certain goods would actually be passed on to consumers.
The expert advice paper, concluded that while cuts to GST/VAT rates are passed on, exemption or multi-rate policies see just 30% of the tax relief passed on to shoppers.
The paper looked at the best available evidence and concluded:
This research estimated that changes in the general VAT rate were on average fully passed through to consumers. However, changes in rates for specific goods and services were on average not fully passed through and had an estimated average pass through rate of approximately 30 percent.
So Treasury and IRD have said that the global evidence is that exemptions for specific goods and services only get passed on 30%.
So again this means Labour’s GST policy will see supermarkets benefit $1.54 billion and taxpayers benefit by less than $2 a week!
St Peter’s College in Epsom is the leading academic boys school in NZ with 94.2% of their 2022 LEAVERS having University Entrance*.
Instead of deciles in NZ we now have schools with an Equity Index number that shows the number of students at school with “risk factors” for non-achievement. St Peter’s in Epsom is quite low at 386. The high is Flaxmere College at 564.
For two schools that neither ethnicity or other demographics determine outcomes:
Along with St Peter’s (Epsom) St Joseph’s and Manukura are schools so many educators should be beating a path to.
Without additional comment. Below are matching girls’ school/boys’ school outside of Auckland and Wellington. The % is UE for LEAVERS. In brackets is the EQI.
* Why use University Entrance? It is the most robust and aspirational of the qualifications that all schools do. The Ministry data includes UE equivalents for Cambridge and IB. It does not imply all students should go on to degree level study – but the should have the choice.
(Please email me for the full date set on every high school in NZ re L3 NCEA, UE, Retention, Progress to Degree level study … all in ranked spreadsheets. Plus system aggregates. [email protected])
Alwyn Poole
Innovative Education Consultants
Cambridge Festival of Sport
www.innovativeeducation.co.nz
www.cambridgefestivalofsport.co.nz
www.alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151

Petrol prices are now over $3 again for regular petrol. That is $1 a litre more than in 2017. Every tank is costing you around $50 more.
And no it is not just because of Putin. The combined tax take in 2017 was $1.19 and at the moment is is $1.74. And Labour is promising to increase the tax take even more.
A guest post by David Garrett:
Back in 2020 – or was it 2017? – Labour announced that it wished to reduce the prison population by 30%. While that has not quite been achieved, there has certainly been a substantial reduction in the prison population since they announced that policy – or perhaps desire is the better word. The question then becomes, “How did they achieve that?” In theory neither politicians nor anyone else can direct judges to impose shorter sentences.
In our system of government, the executive – effectively the cabinet – is theoretically separate from both the legislature – parliament – and the judiciary. The first “separation” is to a large extent in name only; with only the rarest of exceptions MP’s from the ruling party support whatever policy their mates in cabinet tell them to. If they don’t, their careers are lonely and short. At best, all the rest of the members of parliament – those who are not members of a governing party – can do is delay and frustrate the passage of legislation.
The second “separation” – that between the executive and the judiciary – is supposed to be sacrosanct; it is neither the executive’s nor the legislature’s role to criticize or direct the judiciary, and the judiciary ought not to be interfering in government policy or legislation. So how then did the executive – which constitutionally has nothing to do with sentencing – manage to achieve a 25% reduction in the prison population in five years?
On the face of it there are only two ways a reduction in the prison population can be achieved. The first is judges sending prisoners to jail less often in favour of community based sentences; the second is the Parole Board releasing prisoners earlier than they otherwise would have. The third way sentences can be lessened is by the appointment of “soft” judges who will avoid imprisonment whenever they can, and impose shorter sentences than ought to be the case when they must. I am somewhat astounded that there has apparently been no investigation into how this reduction has been achieved. Let’s look at the three possibilities in turn.
In theory, no-one ought to be trying to influence judges’ sentencing; not their fellow judges, not the heads of bench, and certainly not agents of the executive. However we know that in least one case there was a blatant attempt – by the late Wira Gardiner and others – to put pressure on a Family Court judge with the intention that he gave greater weight to the views of Oranga Tamariki regarding the placement of a Maori child. This quite rightly caused something of an outrage when it was revealed – but that was only one case.
Have there been “quiet words” in the ears of some High Court Judges urging them to imprison fewer people for shorter periods? Now I no longer rely on a New Zealand practicing certificate for my livelihood I am prepared to say this is entirely possible. The present Chief Justice Dame Helen Winkelmann was appointed in 2019. She is well known to the profession as being a raving leftie, as was her predecessor Dame Sian Elias. Winkelmann began her legal career with a large commercial law firm, Philips Fox, and later became a barrister sole, specializing in commercial work, insolvency, and medical disciplinary litigation. Prior to becoming a Judge, it is unlikely she ever met a criminal face to face. She would certainly never have met a tattooed gang thug.
Other than Justice Winkelmann, the judges who are “soft on crime” are well known to the profession, just as it is well known who are members of “the A team” – i.e. the more learned and able judges – as opposed to “the rest”. I wish to make it clear that I have no evidence – other than the rapid and substantial reduction in the prison population – to support a claim that Judges of the Supreme Court and/or the Court of Appeal have attempted to influence their brothers and sisters to achieve a reduction in prisoner numbers by softer sentencing. The fact remains however that this has happened, and in a relatively short time. The fact that the reduction followed calls by the Labour government for said reduction is unlikely to have been coincidental.
What about the Parole Board? I have only personally met one of the present Board, one Khylee Quince, formerly an undistinguished academic at AUT and said to be expert, inter alia¸ in youth justice and Maori legal issues. I encountered Ms Quince at a debate on Maori offending and imprisonment a few years ago. It quickly became clear that I was the token “rightie” on the panel; all the others were either Maori criminals – there were three of them as I recall – and a couple of left wing academics, including Ms Quince.
In discussions afterwards, Ms Quince was underwhelming in the extreme: she had no idea for example that there were, at that time, 13 people serving time in NZ jails for a second homicide, claiming that there were “about three”. I later sent her my list of repeat killers; she never gave me the courtesy of a reply.
Have the Parole Board collectively been releasing prisoners more often and after less time served than before the Labour government came to power? Who knows? It would take a careful study – such as a Master’s thesis – to provide evidence one way or the other. Even then, trying to establish some clear evidence would be very difficult, given the wide range of circumstances both of offenders and their offences. In other words trying to compare apples with apples over two time periods – before and after the election of the Labour government – would be very difficult.
What about influencing sentencing outcomes by way of appointment of “soft” judges? I understand there have only been about four High Court Judges appointed since Labour came to power. However, the vast majority of criminal sentencing in New Zealand is done in the District Court. I have no idea how many DCJ’s have been appointed since 2017. Perhaps a reader with knowledge of the numbers in question could enlighten all of us.
So what do we know for sure? Firstly, we know Labour campaigned on substantially reducing the prison population, and we know this reduction has in fact occurred. Secondly, we know that the executive constitutionally has no direct input into what the courts do, and what sentences are passed. But we also know from the Wira Gardiner Family Court case that outside interference has occurred in at least one case. We know about that one case only because the Judge in question bravely made it known to the public that he had been pressured. While that might have been an isolated case, in my view that is most unlikely. Once again, something happened by which government policy regarding prisoner numbers became a reality.In my opinion, it is clear at least on the balance of probabiliies that some person or persons must have influenced members of our judiciary. In a small country like ours, it is inevitable that members of the judicial elites mix often with members of other elites, including politicians. Perhaps we will never know quite how a 25% reduction in the prison population was achieved in five years – it sure as hell wasn’t because of a 25% reduction in violent offending. We are in the middle of a crime wave, and the major legislative response to that has been to repeal the three strikes law rather than a “beefing up” of the law as you would expect.
Newshub reports:
Labour leader Chris Hipkins is standing by one of his MPs, despite a number of former employees coming forward to Newshub calling Shanan Halbert a bully.
The Labour Party was alerted to concerns about his alleged behaviour a year ago but because staffers wanted to remain anonymous, no formal process was undertaken …
They told Newshub that Halbert was “manipulative”, “scheming”, “a narcissist” and that they live in fear of him. …
Newshub has obtained email chains, which directly raise concerns with Labour’s former chief Whip Duncan Webb.
The first alert came from a bullying and harassment consultant acting on behalf of some of Halbert’s former staffers.
They emailed Webb on August 22 last year and listed Halbert’s behaviour in black and white.
The email said that Halbert had made staff members “cry in front of others”, “publicly humiliated them”, “played staff off against each other”, and “shouted” at staff.
But Labour, the “workers’ party”, did nothing.
Ipsos have published their regular issues poll for August 2023, and it is rather bleak for Labour.
The overall score for Government performance has dropped from an already low 5.2/10 in May to a 4.5/10 in August. Three years ago they were at 7.2/10.
The top issues of importance (respondents can choose up to three) are:
And who leads on each issue;
So National leads on every issue of the top five and Labour only one issue in the top 10.
National even leads on housing, health and education – areas left parties normally do better on. I guess the public do understand the lack of improved outcomes despite massive spending increases.
So far I’ve not seen a single person say Hipkins won, but to be fair I have not checked The Standard recently!
The full results are here.
Party Vote
Preferred PM (unprompted)
She needs to go into areas such as South Auckland and explain results like those below. (NB: I use UE for LEAVERS as a proxy for the academic results at lower levels).
University Entrance for Leavers
– Papakura High School – 8%
– Mangere College – 8.9%
– Tangaroa College – 11.1%
– Southern Cross Campus – 11.6%
– Manurewa High School – 12.2% (down from 23.6% in one year)
– James Cook High School – 12.8%
– Sir Edmund Hillary Collegiate – 13.2%
These are almost all in long-term Labour electorates but there is no sign that Labour cares. They are by no means the worst outcomes for schools but in the area this is what Labour calls “choice”.
For those who think ethnicity and ability are strongly linked St Joseph’s Maori Girls had 92% of their 2022 Leavers graduate with UE.
What are the solutions people? Cameron Bagrie notes that if we want to see the nation in 20 years time – look at our education system now.
These young people are being failed and Hipkins was the Minister of Education for over 5 years.
Keep in mind we are now have a situation where 25% of our young people are leaving school, after 13,200 funded hours, without even having Level 1 NCEA.
(Please email me for the full date set on every high school in NZ re L3 NCEA, UE, Retention, Progress to Degree level study … all in ranked spreadsheets. Plus system aggregates. [email protected])
The Herald reports:
Labour has dumped its target to keep the country’s prison population 30 per cent lower than 2017 levels, should it secure re-election next month.
After presiding over six years of rising crime levels yet fewer arrest, fewer prosecutions and fewer prison terms, Labour dumps its policy a few days before the election.
The way to reduce the prison population is to reduce criminal offending, not to reduce consequences for serious violent and sexual offenders
I didn’t watch it as I was settling children, but from the media summaries it looks like neither leader did poorly, so unlikely to lead to any shift in the polls.
What did readers make of it?