More mega-merger problems

Stuff reports:

Just weeks after the resignation of its chief executive, Te Pūkenga has been dealt another blow as its chief financial officer has quit – just months into the job.

Te Pūkenga – the country’s largest tertiary education provider – is now being led by an interim CFO and an acting CEO.

Matthew Walker joined Te Pūkenga as CFO in July, saying: “I’m really looking forward to hitting the ground running.”

A CFO who leaves after less than three months? That is unheard of and indicates there must be something very seriously wrong at the organisation that is Chris Hipkins’ baby.

Taxpayers’ Union Curia poll September 2022

The public results are here.

Party Vote

Seats

  • National 47 (+14 from election)
  • Labour 42 (-23)
  • ACT 16 (+6)
  • Greens 13 (+3)
  • Maori Party 2 (nc)

Government

  • National/ACT 63/120
  • Labour/Greens 55/120

Preferred PM

  • Jacinda Ardern 36.5% (-3.0%)
  • Christopher Luxon 25.9% (+6.4%)

This is the first time the Taxpayers’ Union/Curia poll has shown the wrong direction at 50%.

Audrey rates Labour’s Maori caucus

Audrey Young rates the members of Labour’s Maori Caucus. The summary is:

  • Adrian Rurawhe: Exceeded expectations
  • Kelvin Davis: Pedestrian
  • Nanaia Mahuta: Distracted
  • Peeni Henare: Sheltered
  • Willie Jackson: Active
  • Kiri Allan: Big Future
  • Meka Whaitiri: Solid
  • Rino Tirikatene: Treading water
  • Tamati Coffey: Adjusting
  • Willow-Jean Prime: Dependable
  • Jo Luxton: Disciplined
  • Paul Eagle: Unsettled
  • Shanan Halbert: Dedicated
  • Arena Williams: Ambitious

Also worth noting that Audrey said re Mahuta:

But distracted by Three Waters reforms and a series of stories about public sector contracts awarded to her consultant husband. They have reached such a pitch that she herself should refer the matter to the Public Service Commission or Auditor-General to get an independent opinion and draw a line under it. 

That’s an excellent idea.

General Debate 15 September 2022

Food prices hit a new high

Prime Ministerial Decision Making the Ardern Way

“It is important to acknowledge the passing of the Queen.

I know what NZ kids need to do that. They need another day off! It is not like Decile 1 attendance is already at 22% and across the board it is below 50%.

No use waiting and using one of the days in the holidays. What should happen is that we will make the 26th of September the day – the start of the last week of term – that may even encourage families to turn it into a three week break and get away early. 

And – as it reduces by one day the time they are supposed to attend it will make the attendance figures look a bit better.

Brilliant.”

JA (Minister for Child Poverty Reduction – always working out ways to make things just a little worse).

RIP Ken Douglas

Stuff reports:

New Zealand’s most well-known trade union leader, Ken Douglas, aged 86, has died.

Known as Red Ken, Douglas led the union movement from 1979 to 1999, first as the Federation of Labour Secretary, then as the inaugural president of the Council of Trade Unions.

A controversial figure, he was the leader of the Socialist Unity Party in the 1970s and was the target of much anti-union vitriol from former Prime Minister Robert Muldoon….

During the Cold War he remained a supporter of the Soviet Union and politically was an internationalist.

As the leader of the Socialist Unity Party he stood for Parliament in the safe Labour seat of Porirua three times. His best result was 70 votes.

Former colleague and friend Angela Foulkes​, who he worked with when the Council of Trade Union was established, said Douglas was the most important union leader since the World War II.

Ken Douglas had terrible political views but was a very decent person.

In later life his views modified and he was elected to the Porirua City Council and spent nine years on the Capital & Coast District Health Board from 2001.

Other roles included terms on the boards of Air NZ, NZ Post and NZ Trade and Enterprise.

I know people who served on boards with him, and they all praised how astute and constructive he was.

He was one of the giant political figures of the late 20th century. My condolences to his family and friends.

Royal popularity

In light of the accession of King Charles III, I looked at the latest data on favourability of members of the Royal Family in the UK. The net favourability in May 2022 was:

  1. The Queen +69%
  2. Catherine +62%
  3. Prince William +61%
  4. Prince Edward +21%
  5. Prince Charles +19%
  6. Camilla +8%
  7. Prince Harry -25%
  8. Meghan -39%
  9. Prince Andrew -82%

Will be interesting to see how they have changed with Charles now King.

General Debate 14 September 2022

Will Solomons become a failed state?

Stuff reports:

The Solomon Islands government has been accused of a “power grab” after Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare announced he is postponing next year’s general election.

Parliament voted last week, 37-10, to delay the election to 2024.

The opposition warns the government’s move could rekindle violence in the Solomons, its growing ties with China drawing concerns, at home and abroad.

MP Peter Kenilorea Jr said postponing the elections would allow Sogavare to consolidate his control over the Pacific nation or, worse, suspend elections altogether.

An election delay should only happen in times of extraordinary events such as a global war, and with bipartisan support.

The constitutional amendment delays the dissolution of the current parliament from May 2023 until the end of next year, shortly after the Pacific Games, and pushes the election to early 2024.

Sogavare also argued in Parliament that the “Solomon Islands could not successfully host both the games and an election next year because of the logistical requirements”.

What nonsense. If they are incapable of hosting the games and running an election, they should resign as incompetent. And the games are six months after the election.

China’s increasing influence in the Solomons is unmistakable, Kenilorea said.

“From the $50 million sports stadium it is building for the Pacific Games to its growing influence over local policing and politics, to a plan for Huawei to build more than 150 telecommunications towers that critics say could enable Chinese surveillance, it is concerning.”

All the signs are bad for the Solomons.

Ukraine regaining territory

Stuff reports:

In the end, the Russians fled any way they could on Friday (local time), on stolen bicycles, disguised as locals, abandoned by their units.

Hours after Ukrainian soldiers poured into the area, hundreds of Russian soldiers encamped in this village were gone, leaving behind stunned residents to face the ruins of 28 weeks of occupation. …

The hasty flight of Russians from the village was part of a stunning new reality that took the world by surprise over the weekend: The invaders of February are on the run in some parts of Ukraine they seized early in the conflict.

On Saturday, the Russian Defence Ministry confirmed that Russian forces had retreated from the Balakliia and Izyum area in the Kharkiv region, saying a decision was taken to “regroup.”

On Sunday, Ukraine’s commander in chief, Valery Zaluzhny, said Ukrainian forces had retaken more than 3000 square kilometres of territory, a claim that could not be independently verified, adding that they were advancing from the east, south and north.

“Ukrainian forces have penetrated Russian lines to a depth of up to 70 kilometres in some places,” reported the Institute for the Study of War, which closely tracks the conflict. They have captured more territory in the past five days “than Russian forces have captured in all their operations since April,” its campaign assessment posted Sunday said.

That is an astonishing reversal, and great to see.

Ironically it may prolong the conflict, as Putin can no longer declare a ceasefire when he is looking weak. But it will weaken his position back home.

The bravery and tenacity of the Ukrainian defenders is stunning.

Dutch madness

Stuff reports:

A Dutch city has become the first in the world to ban advertisements in public places for holiday flights.

From 2024, ads relating to fossil fuel products and services will be barred from being displayed in public places in Haarlem.

That means any billboards on buses, shelters and screens promoting air travel and non-electric cars will be barred, as the city moves to address the climate crisis.

As part of the changes, Haarlem will also be to be the first city in the world to ban adverts for meat.

There no limit to the fascism that lurks behind some politicians.

A cap and trade emissions trading scheme will achieve the goal of net zero emissions. But that is not enough for the control freaks. They want to shame you or force you into living your life in a way they morally approve of – vegetarians that never travel anyway you can’t bike,

General Debate 13 September 2022

A complaint to the Dom Post

I very rarely lodge formal complaints with the media. In fact I am unsure if I have ever done a formal complaint, as I prefer to just critique stories on Kiwiblog.

But this story in the Dominion Post and on Stuff was so bad, I have filed the below complaint. I will advise of any response.

Anna Fifield
The Editor
The Dominion Post

Dear Anna,

I write to complain about the article titled “Poll: Whanau clear favourite” which appeared on Page 3 of the Dominion Post on 12 September 2022, and an online version at https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/news/wellington/129847685/tory-whanau-clear-leader-in-straw-poll-for-wellington-mayoralty?

The online version is slightly better than the print version, as the headline is more nuanced.

The poll reported by the Dominion Post was not a poll, but an online survey of Dominion Post and Stuff readers (and non-readers who were sent a link). It has no predictive value, and limited news value. The survey is not representative due to the following factors:

  • Respondents were not randomly selected
  • It will be dominated by people who read Stuff and are active online
  • It is trivial to vote multiple times (stealth browsers etc)
  • Candidates can e-mail links to their supporters asking them to vote
  • Respondents may be ineligible to vote by way of being aged under 18 or living outside Wellington City

The New Zealand Political Polling Code (https://www.researchassociation.org.nz/Resources/Documents/Political%20Polling%20Code%202014.pdf) advises media that best practice is to Only use the term “poll” for scientific polls done in accordance with market research industry approved guidelines, and use “survey” for self-selecting surveys such as text or website surveys.”

The print story does acknowledge the survey is unscientific but not until several paragraphs in, by which time the damage is done. To take the story in order:

  • The headline of “Poll: Whanau clear favourite” is misleading as readers who only see the headline will think that a poll which is representative of residents has shown Whanau as the favourite. The lack of any qualification before the word “poll” in the headline is especially bad. An acceptable headline could have been “Online survey of readers favours Whanau”
  • The lead paragraph states “A straw poll of Wellington mayoral candidates has first-time runner Tory Whanau with a huge majority over her two main rivals” will lead readers to think Whanau is not just leading, but set to win with a massive majority. The use of the word “straw” won’t signal much to the average reader, or clearly indicate it is not representative
  • The second paragraph states “It is intended to give an indication of which candidates are viable”. The self-selecting survey is incapable of indicating which candidates are viable. It can only indicate who is popular amongst those who choose to take part in the self-selecting survey. To suggest it has predictive value for the election is wrong.
  • The third paragraph states “It only allows one vote per computer”. This is wrong. It is trivial to get past any restriction based on cookies or IP addresses.
  • The fourth paragraph states “It is just one snapshot in time, rather than a scientific survey”. Almost all polls are snapshots in time. It is not the fact it is a snapshot in time that makes it unscientific. It is the nature of the survey.
  • The fourth paragraph states “No other known polls have yet been released.”. This elevates this unscientific survey to the level of scientific representative polls
  • The story also asked three candidates for the reaction to the survey. This again implies that the survey was somehow something of significance that should be reacted to.

I do not advocate that media should not report at all on the results of their online surveys. But I would expect any report to be relatively brief just along the lines of “The results of our online readers survey was ….”. But the Dominion Post:

  1. Wrote it up as a major story dominating the highly read Page 3
  2. Ran a headline that was deceptive
  3. Treated the survey as significant, and needing candidates to respond to it

I can’t recall any other major media outlet ever treating an survey of this nature as a story that deserves around 75% of their page 3.

In just the last 12 hours I have had multiple people comment to me on the survey, not realizing it was an unscientific survey rather than a scientific representative poll. I have no doubt that the story has led to a huge degree of misinformation.

Potentially tens of thousands of Wellingtonians have been misled by the headline and details of the news story. The brief mentions part way through of it being unscientific did not counter the overall impression that this survey was important enough to be reported on so prominently

I would ask the Dominion Post to take corrective action with regards to this story. I say this noting that any corrective action may not be able to undo the misinformation effect of the story. It may have a significant impact on how people vote.

The best outcome would be for the Dominion Post to commission an actual scientific poll to give readers a true snapshot of the race of the mayoralty and undo the damage from your story.  And for the avoidance of doubt, no I am not touting for business.

If that is not feasible, I would suggest a follow up story with similar prominence to the original story apologizing for the headline and implications in the original story that the online survey could be interpreted as indicating which candidates are viable, or leading.

For the avoidance of doubt, I am asserting that the story breached principles 1 and 6 of the Media Council Statement of Principles.

I believe principle 1 is breached as the story was inaccurate and misled readers as to the significance of the survey and the public support for the mayoral candidates.

I believe principle 6 is breached as the headline lacked any reference to the unscientific nature of the survey, by labelling it as a poll – contrary to the explicit industry best practice guideline by the polling industry.

Regards

David Farrar

Freedom!

The Government has announced:

  • The end of the traffic light system
  • The end of mask mandates except in healthcare and aged care facilities
  • The end of vaccine mandates for travel
  • The end of isolation requirements for household contacts

The vast majority of New Zealanders will welcome this as long overdue.

It will be interesting if we have another Covid-19 like pandemic in the future because if we do, I am not sure there will be the widespread support and acceptance for restrictions such as the lockdowns. Don’t get me wrong – I supported the original lockdown as a necessary evil. But I think people resent that restrictions of various sorts went on for not just two months, but two years.

This is not to criticise the Government’s decisions in 2020, but to reflect the reality of where people are today.

What we really need is a Royal Commission of Inquiry into NZ’s response, so we can evaluate what could be done differently next time.

A scathing review of $1.1 billion given to Oranga Tamariki

The Herald reports:

Treasury gave the Government a scathing review of its $1.1 billion investment in Oranga Tamariki in the 2019 Budget, calling the spend a “disparate collection of ideas” that was “not governed by a clear organisational strategy“.

Sounds like the Government!

In the first Wellbeing Budget, the Government invested $1.1 billion over four years into Oranga Tamariki to transform the organisation.

As part of that funding, Children’s Minister Kelvin Davis was meant to report back to Cabinet on whether any transformation had taken place every six months.

The first report was back in April 2021, but the papers released under the Official Information Act say that “from… Treasury’s perspective” the report itself “did not meet the expectations Cabinet set”.

The next report was due at the end of the year. Once again, Treasury felt the report itself was sub par, and underplayed issues at the agency.

Treasury papers and correspondence show the agency was scathing about the lack of progress.

“This will be the second report back Cabinet receives, and while it is a significant improvement on the first, some key issues remain,” the papers say.

They add that Treasury had to second short-term staff to the chief executive of Oranga Tamariki to “provide financial expertise”.

Treasury was concerned Davis’ original Cabinet paper had “not adequately addressed” the “key issues” of Oranga Tamariki’s lacklustre performance.

So taxpayers put $1.1 billion into OT to transform it, and the Minister didn’t want to tell his colleagues that basically it was a waste of money, so he glossed over it.

One report from Treasury highlighted that Oranga Tamariki did not have “effective fiscal controls” – controls on how money was spent effectively.

The report said Oranga Tamariki did not have the “necessary reporting and accountability systems in place, to ensure spending is high value and within budget”.

It said that “[s]ignificant decisions are frequently made before funding is in place, such as raising expectations with partners regarding contracts for services, or hiring permanent staff without ongoing funding for those staff”.

Treasury gave the example of Oranga Tamariki’s leadership deciding to reprioritise $42 million in underspent funding without Cabinet approval.

Because of the way that funding was reprioritised, Oranga Tamariki created an ongoing cost pressure of $20 million each year that would need to be funded in subsequent Budgets.

“OT have not sought Cabinet or joint ministerial approval to re-prioritise this $42 million, and have created an ongoing cost pressure of $20 million into subsequent years directly attributable to these decisions,” the paper said.

This is sackable territory. They spend $42 million without permission. In the private sector you would be sacked or worse.

She might be alive if Three Strikes had been around longer

Joseph Brider raped and murdered Juliana Bonilla Herrera just 72 days after he was released on parole for an earlier rape. His full criminal history is unknown, but what we do know is:

  • Convicted of rape in 2014
  • 27 previous convictions
  • 10 police call outs for domestic violence on a previous partner
  • Convicted of assaulted “a number of times” for assaulting the previous partner

He started planning his rape of Herrera within a week of being released. He is one of those recidivists who the moment he is free, he is looking for his next victim. The quicker they get out, the quicker they create a new victim.

If his earlier assaults had qualified as strikes (which is likely) then his 2014 rape would have seen him locked up for 20 years, not seven.

General Debate 12 September 2022

Mahuta’s husband included Mahuta in application for funding from TPK

The Herald reports:

Ka Awatea Services also received a grant of $28,300 from the Ministry of Māori Development’s “suicide prevention” fund in April, 2021.

Mahuta was then, and remains, the associate minister for the department. Her ministerial responsibilities did not include purview of the fund.

The funding application form, supplied to the Herald in June by Gannin Ormsby, proposed the inclusion of Mahuta in the project (a three-day series of workshops, seminars and excursions for 40 Māori young people).

Mahuta was listed in the project’s “proposed list” of four panelists, who would critique participants’ potential ventures and business ideas. The panelists would be paid $2000 each to cover travel and koha for their time and the $8000 cost would be covered by the Ministry for Maori Development funding, the application said.

So the husband of the Associate Minister won a non contested contract for services on the basis of a proposal that included a panel whose members included the Associate Minister.

Under the OIA, the Ministry for Māori Development also released an “assessment of funding proposal” document related to the Ka Awatea project.

The document recommended that the ministry’s “investment sub-committee” fund the project. Under “conflict of interest” it states: “No severe conflicts of interest have been identified.”

Astonishing. Listing the Associate Minister as a panelist who will get paid $2,000 is not seen by TPK as a severe conflict of interest!

Boris at his best

This seven minute speech from Boris Johnson is him at his best, as he pays tribute to Queen Elizabeth.

Marvelly on Rotorua

Lizzie Marvelly writes:

Rotorua has, whether deliberately or through absolute dereliction of duty, been transformed into a dumping ground. A place where the vulnerable are treated like cash cows, lining the pockets of a select few.

I despair that I’m at the point where I’m writing this column, knowing that more negative publicity will compound the impact upon Rotorua. But the situation is dire, it must change, and the people who have created this nightmare must be held accountable.

Those people would be the Government.

My wife and I lived just a street away from the Government and council-sponsored ghetto that is Fenton Street. We would drive down Fenton Street most days, and see some alarming sights. The toddler wearing just a nappy and a t-shirt wandering alone down the road. The young men fighting in the street. Not to mention the numerous blazes that engulfed the so-called “transitional housing” motels.

I find the word “transitional” ironic. Transitioning to where? The people in these motels are stuck. The conditions are squalid, the social challenges are profound and danger is ever-present. Many of the rooms in these motels don’t even have functioning smoke alarms. Single mums and their tamariki have been housed next to 501 deportees from Australia. It makes you wonder whether they are better or worse off than they were before they landed on Fenton Street.

The people who are undoubtedly better off are those receiving millions of taxpayer money to house and care for the vulnerable. But what do we have to show for the money being thrown around? If the system was working we’d see the number of emergency housing motels decreasing. We’d see a reduction in negative social impacts as people received the support and assistance they needed.

We are seeing quite the opposite. What key performance indicators, if any, have been put in place? When organisations and the offshore owners of Fenton Street motels are receiving millions of dollars of public funding, surely the public have a right to know what the spend is achieving. Forgive the crass expression, but in my view millions of dollars of taxpayer money are being pissed into the wind in Rotorua.

Rather than help those in need, the Government has simply spent a billion dollars paying motel owners.

Housing Minister Megan Woods featured in the recent Sunday story, saying that Rotorua had a homelessness problem before the pandemic hit. The way she phrased it made it sound to me like the problem we had before the Government initiated Rotorua’s emergency housing industry was similar to what we have now. Bollocks. Sure, the city had a small minority of rough sleepers, but nowhere near enough of them to fill 50 motels. How did a hundred or so homeless people turn into thousands?

We know that the numbers on the priority waiting list for public housing has increased 500% or so in five years.

It seems to me that Rotorua is out of sight, out of mind for the cosy politicians in Wellington. I’d like to welcome Minister Woods and her family to stay in one of the motels on Fenton Street for a week. Perhaps the people of Rotorua should extend that invitation to all of the Government ministers. There are plenty of sights to see: natural wonders, adventure tourism, gang fights in front of the library… A week on Fenton Street would be quite the holiday to remember.

Maybe they could shift the Beehive there?

It is the view of many at home that the current leadership, both locally and nationally, are destroying Rotorua.

The local leadership can only mean Labour Mayor Steve Chadwick and national leadership is all pretty obvious. The fact this is being by someone who used to be a huge fan of the Government, is telling.

Locals have been voicing their concerns to officials for years, yet things continue to get worse. It is difficult to see how the city will recover. There must be an independent review immediately, followed by swift and lasting change.

I agree. An independent inquiry is needed.

General Debate 11 September 2022

NIMBYs want benefits of mining, but elsewhere

Josie Vidal of Straterra writes:

If you ride a bike or drive an electric vehicle, thank you. If you eat, cook, or keep food in the fridge, thank you.

If you use a mobile phone, laptop, computer, access medical services, play the guitar, rely on solar panels to heat your home, thank you. Like me, you all support mining, because if you look at how your stuff is made, the components come from the periodic table and they were mined.

If it wasn’t grown, it was mined and almost everything you use every day, including the kitchen sink (partially made from Ni, or Nickel, 28 on the periodic table), is at your fingertips thanks to mining.

Most people have no idea how much of what they use comes from mined products.

Boiling it down, it appears those against are saying they don’t want mining in New Zealand but are happy to use all the goods that are made from mining if production is out of sight and out of mind. Too bad that potentially it was children who mined that cobalt (Co, 27 on the periodic table) that keeps your battery-powered devices running, including the electric vehicle. The children that survive the high-risk mining, with their bare hands, get to sell a bag of rock for 0.75 cents or one dollar. I think they call that NIMBYism – not in my backyard.

The less mining we do in New Zealand, the more mining gets done in other countries, often using child labour.

Electric car sales around the world continue to break records, and a recent International Energy Agency report highlights this brings with it an increase in the demand for raw materials. It suggests, “Governments must leverage private investment in sustainable mining and ensure clear and rapid permitting procedures to avoid potential supply bottlenecks”.

There are so many opportunities to contribute to a better future, why wouldn’t we seize them?

If the future is electric cars (and it is), then we need a lot more mining, not less mining.

Transmission Gully vs Auckland City Rail Loop

Many on the left claim that the PPP model used for Transmission Gully is responsible for the fact it opened late, and cost more than budgeted.

But I think that is ideology speaking, not analysis.

So I saw an article this week on the Auckland City Rail Loop (which is not a PPP) and thought it would be useful to do a comparison.

The CRL was estimated to cost $2.5 billion and then up to $3.4 billion when funding was finalised.

Then it rose to $4.4 billion and no one expects it will stay at that level.

But already it has cost 76% more than first budgeted. It will probably end up at over $5 billion.

Transmission Gully went from $850 million to $1.25 billion – a 47% increase, and that is final.

The lesson is Government often under-estimates the cost of construction projects. This is not unique to PPPs.

Yes to online bingo

The Herald reports:

Lotto is being urged to drop plans to launch an online Bingo game, with a member of its expert advisory panel saying it could increase gambling harm in Māori and Pasifika communities.

But Maria Bellringer, director of Auckland University of Technology’s Gambling and Addictions Research Centre and a member of Lotto’s expert advisory panel, wants the company to ditch the idea.

Bellringer said online Bingo is a form of “continuous gambling” where players can immediately reinvest their winnings, unlike a lottery draw where gamblers wait hours or days for the result.

The vast majority of people who gamble are not problem gamblers. They enjoy it. It is a form of entertainment.

Lyman told RNZ New Zealanders were already playing the game on offshore websites and it would be safer for them to play Lotto’s version – which would also return some of that money to the community.

“It’s a game that’s being played by Kiwis through offshore, unregulated sites. That troubles me. I think that we could provide that service to those New Zealanders onshore, for a regulated site where there are harm controls,” Lyman said. “We’re not trying to create a market here. There is a market already. Hundreds of thousands of Kiwis are playing Bingo offshore.”

That is the key – people are already playing it on overseas sites.