One News reports:

But Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern told Morning Report she was weary of political rhetoric on crime masking the situation, and both Labour and National were firm on crime.

“The facts are that the penalties for these issues have not decreased, so this idea that there’s been a problem with the deterrent factor is just wrong.”

The idea tougher penalties would deter young people from carrying out ram raids was not realistic, she said.

“That … says that there’s a rational calculation from young people who, we know are probably making these decisions without that rational judgement. Most young people who are engaging in crime don’t think they’re going to get caught.

Actually many criminals are quite rational. They now know that the Police will no longer pursue your vehicle, if you drive fast enough – even if you have just robbed a store. So they have worked out the safest way to rob a store is to ram raid it, and take off quickly – confident in the knowledge that the Police won’t follow them for long.

The Prime Minister has rejected claims Labour is not tough enough on crime, saying the penalties are the same under both major parties

This is not true. It is the policy of Labour that repeat serious and violent offenders should be able to get early release through parole after one third of their sentence. It is the policy of National that someone on their second violent offence not be allowed out after one third of their sentence.

Further it is the policy of National (and current law) that a third time assailant who seriously wounds someone be sent to prison for 14 years with no parole while the policy of Labour is to change the law so they may get out after just two or three years.

Eric Crampton looks at what has happened due to tax brackets not being adjusted in line with wage growth:

If the Government has done this, then the 33% tax rate would be kicking in $101,000 not $70,000. The 30% tax rate would kick in at $69,000 not $48,000.

Eric points out that effectively in 2011 Parliament decided that those earning between the 68th and 85th percentiles should be on the 30% tax rate and now that tax rate covered earners from the 50th through 73rd percentiles.

Yet Labour not only won’t index tax brackets to inflation or wage growth, but they are planning an up to $1,800 tax increase next year for employees and employers.

The Herald reports:

Taxpayers have forked out more than $800,000 for Zoom job expos run by the Ministry of Social Development.

Newstalk ZB can reveal the events failed to fire, with just 126 people taking part since the first pilot two years ago.

That works out to $6626 per attendee.

Just example No 128,765 of wasteful spending.

The second event in March 2021 was a “tactical response” to the Auckland lockdown, featuring five seminars with 11 attendees.

If it wasn’t for the fact it is my money they are wasting, it would be comical. They ran five seminars in Auckland and got a total of 11 people to them! If this was a company spending its own money they would have halted them by now, but hey its just taxpayer money.

Geoffrey Miller writes:

Jacinda Ardern is slowly but surely shifting New Zealand’s foreign policy towards the West.

That was the underlying theme of a keynote address by New Zealand’s prime minister this week.

Ardern mentioned China only once by name when she spoke to the US business summit in Auckland on Monday, but Beijing was clearly on her mind throughout the 3000-word address.

Some of the hardest-hitting passages came early in the speech and appeared deliberately indirect and oblique, leaving it up to listeners to make up their own minds on the intended likely target of the PM’s words.

For example, Ardern said New Zealand had “held firmly to our independent foreign policy but also to our values. When we see a threat to the rules-based order we rely on, we act.”

While most people would immediately think of New Zealand’s recent moves against Russia – which Ardern discussed in subsequent parts of the speech – the lack of specificity of these initial remarks also allowed for more liberal interpretations involving China.

I hope this is correct. It is clear that we have been disastrously wrong that trading with Russia and China would make them more benign.

Of course, all of Ardern’s indirectness and obliqueness was not without good reason and she would be fully aware of the sensitivities. With a third of New Zealand’s exports heading to China every year, Wellington can ill afford to get offside with Beijing.

Indeed, until last year, Wellington thought that it had found a way to thread the needle and balance the competing interests of China and the US. However, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has forced New Zealand to align itself more closely with the West.

This new position understandably carries a degree of unfamiliarity and awkwardness for New Zealand policymakers, who had been quite happy with the status quo.

The status quo is now untenable. New Zealand needs to reduce it dependency on China quickly. By that I don’t mean tariffs or the like, but reducing barriers with the US, EU, Canada etc.

Stuff reports:

National Party Leader Christopher Luxon says he’s committed to having a more diverse range of candidates for the 2023 general election.

His concession came as Sam Uffindell launched his campaign for the Tauranga by-election to replace outgoing National MP Simon Bridges.

At Uffindell’s official campaign launch at Mount Maunganui College on Saturday, Luxon said while the party wasn’t where he wanted it to be in terms of diversity, progress was being made.

“I am confident the National Party will have a very diverse candidacy for 2023,” Luxon said.

This may prove to be quite challenging. The reason why, is that National may win a lot of electorate seats.

The National Party hierarchy does care about having diversity in caucus, but this is generally done through the list ranking. The ranking is done by senior officials and the caucus leadership has very strong influence over that.

But individual selections in most electorates are done 100% by local members. And while diversity may be a factor for them, they only get to select one candidate. Many do not even decide until selection night who to vote for, after listening to their speeches.

National in 2020 got 33 MPs. Let’s say in 2023 they get 53 MPs. Now normally 20 additional MPs would give you a lot of ability to make sure there was a decent diversity. But it is unlikely there will be 20 additional List MPs (which are centrally chosen). How many electorate seats could National pick up?

Well while they won’t win all of them, the following seats could well come into play:

1. Northland
2. Whangarei
3. Maungakiekie
4. Tukituki
5. Upper Harbour
6. Northcote
7. New Plymouth
8. Hamilton East
9. Otaki
10. Ilam
11. Hutt South
12. Rangitata
13. Nelson
14. Napier
15. West Coast-Tasman
16. Hamilton West
17. East Coast
18. Wairarapa
19. Takanini
20. Whanganui

Now winning electorate seats is definitely a good thing overall for a party. But if National did win say 20 electorates back off Labour, then they might get no extra List MPs, and that would make list ranking more difficult.

Newshub reports:

The public has registered a vote of no confidence in Police Minister Poto Williams as youth crime spirals out of control. 

Most Kiwis think Williams is too soft on crime, the latest Newshub-Reid Research poll has found – but Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern is standing by her. 

From mowing through malls to attacks on dairies to storming liquor stores to ransacking retailers, it feels no one is immune to the ram-raid rampage. …

The latest Newshub-Reid Research poll asked: Is the current Police Minister too soft on crime?

More than two-thirds – 68.3 percent – said yes, while just 18.3 percent said no. 

That’s a damning result, but a fair one.

Williams is probably the softest on crime Police Minister New Zealand has had since Phil Connolly.

Stuff reports:

A global vigilante climate group are targeting utes and sports utility vehicles (SUV) in Auckland, deflating tyres across the suburbs of Sandringham and Mt Eden.

A group called the Tyre Extinguishers have taken credit.

Its spokesperson, calling themselves ‘Mercedes Driver’, said similar action had taken place in the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, The Netherlands, and the United States.

“What began as an action by UK citizens concerned about climate change has spread around the world, showing no signs of stopping,” the statement said.

SUVs and 4x4s were a “disaster for our climate”, it said. “The world is facing a climate emergency. We need emergency action to reduce emissions immediately. We’re taking action into our own hands because our governments and politicians will not.”

I really hope they get caught in the act doing this.

From a political point of view their actions will not do anything to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It will result in a backlash that will make people more hostile to their aims.

Stuff reports:

Germany’s DPA news agency has reported that prosecutors in the town of Stendal in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, have reviewed footage of a Czech millionaire driving his Bugatti Chiron at more than 400 kilometres per hour on a stretch of autobahn between Berlin and Hanover, and have concluded that he did not break any laws.

Radim Passer attracted global attention in January when he posted a video on his YouTube channel that showed him hitting 414kph on the public road in an attempt to hit the Bugatti’s top speed, which is limited to 420kph. …

While the Chiron could easily go faster than 420kph, Bugatti says it limits it to that for safety reasons, after it concluded that no tyre currently made would actually be able to handle the stress at the Chiron’s true top speed.

A good focus on safety then!

At the time the video attracted the attention of Germany’s Transport Ministry, which released a statement saying it rejected “any behaviour in road traffic that leads or can lead to endangering road users.”

Passer hit back, posting a comment on the video directed to “those that say it was irresponsible and dangerous”, saying that he completed the run at 4:50am on a Sunday, and passed a total of ten cars on the 10km stretch of autobahn, one of which was one of his spotters in a Porsche 911 Turbo.

”Good visibility is about 3 to 4km straight ahead, so there is enough time to react,” he wrote.

“The Chiron can brake from 400 to 0 in 9 seconds within 490 metres. All cars are in the far right lane. There was an earlier drive through the section to make sure there is nothing on the road.

This is a good reminder of how what speed is safe is highly variable depending on the car, the road, the conditions etc. The authorities concluded that his speed was no unsafe, when you take this into account.

NewstalkZB reports:

NSW government ministers have been reportedly told to avoid using the word “mate” as part of new workplace behaviour advice. 

The Daily Telegraph revealed on Sunday ministers undertook Respect at Work training sessions during the week. 

Perrottet government ministers were advised not to use the word “mate”, ban drinking alcohol in the office and not to yell at staff. 

“I use ‘mate’ all the time – it’s as ­Australian as you can get. How can it be offensive?” one minister told The Daily Telegraph. 

Some people who attended described the training as “PC insanity” with other unnamed ministers also criticising the course.

No doubt coming here soon!

Stuff reports:

Israel has lashed out at Russia over “unforgivable” comments by its foreign minister about Nazism and anti-semitism – including claims that Adolf Hitler was Jewish. Israel, which summoned the Russian ambassador in response, said the remarks blamed Jews for their own murder in the Holocaust.

If you needed any proof of how vile Russia has become, this provides it.

Newshub reports:

So enraged by the fact, Peters on Wednesday filed to take the Speaker to court.

“These things cost a lot of money – but somebody’s got to do it,” Peters said. 

“If others won’t raise a finger when we should be raising the roof, I know what sort of society we are going to end up with.”

He said Mallard is “out of control” and “power drunk”.

“This is dictatorial. It demonstrates some people think they’ve got power they haven’t got.”

Peters was finding a friend in a foe at Parliament. 

“I’m defending the rights of all New Zealanders and even Winston Peters has human rights,” ACT’s David Seymour said.

Even the Prime Minister questioned Mallard’s call.

“It is a bit different when people are arrested versus just simply just attending,” Jacinda Ardern said.

I agree with the Prime Minister on this.

In total 151 trespass notices were issued, with 144 of those going to people arrested at the protest. Seven more were issued to what Parliamentary Services called persons of interest. But five of those were withdrawn on Wednesday.

Few would dispute that trespass orders against those arrested are appropriate. But who were the other seven people?

1. Former Deputy PM and NZ First Leader Winston Peters
2. Former National MP and DemocracyNZ Party Leader Matt King
3. Former ACT MP Stephen Franks
4. Former Maori Party co-leader Marama Fox
5. Former ACT Leader Rodney Hide
6. ?
7. ?

That is a terrible look. Five of the seven trespassed are former MPs. The Speaker said that the Parliamentary Service Commission resolved former MPs should not be treated differently, to justify the trespass notices. But they have been treated differently – they were trespassed because they were former MPs. And four of them current or former party leaders. It’s the sort of thing you expect in an autocracy. Thank goodness they have been withdrawn as otherwise I might have felt obliged to donate to Winston’s legal fund – and for me that would be as pleasant as a holiday in Gaza.

Inflation is at 7% and families are struggling with the extra cost of food, petrol and housing (and more). What many don’t realise is later this year Labour plans to legislate to cut people’s take home pay by up to $1,800 a year. It is their compulsory income insurance policy. This is how it will work:

• Funded by a massive $3.5 billion a year take hike on all employees and employers
• Employees will have an extra 1.39% tax which will reduce their take home pay by up to $1,820 a year or $35 a week.
• Employers will have an extra 1.39% tax on staff which will see them boost prices making inflation worse
• People who are made redundant etc will get paid by taxpayers up to $400 a day to remain unemployed for six months (and one month from the employer). If they get a new job, they will lose their insurance payments so they will be incentivised to remain unemployed for the full seven months.

So the net effect of this policy is:

• Inflation will increase
• Take home pays will decrease
• Unemployment will increase

This $3.5 billion annual tax increase will be the largest tax increase in over 30 years. The only way to stop it will be to change the Government.

An excellent advertisement that appeared in the Herald. We need to remind people that every single Labour and Green MP voted for a bill to end equality of suffrage in New Zealand.

A leaked draft US Supreme Court opinion shows that a majority of the Supreme Court are going to reverse the 1973 Roe vs Wade decision which found abortion to be a constitutional right.

I believe abortion should be a constitutional right, but that the way you get it to be a constitutional right is to stick it in the constitution!

I blogged back in January:

Like RBG, I like the outcome of Roe vs Wade. I’d vote (if in the US) for a constitutional amendment stating abortion is a right. But the fact I agree with the outcome, doesn’t mean I think the judgment is a good one, which should stand.

From a policy point of view I’d love it if the Supreme Court declared taxation greater than 10% of income is unconstitutional. It would be great. But it would be just as wrong for the Supreme Court to invent low taxation as a constitutional right. And imagine how outraged left wingers would be if the Supreme Court declared taxation over 10% illegal. Well that is how many on the right feel about Roe vs Wade.

I also commented:

It is a terrible decision. It is one of the worst decisions made by the Supreme Court where a majority of Justices just decided to invent a constitutional right, because that would align with their policy preferences.

One of the reasons abortion is such a divisive issue in the US, is because of resentment that the Supreme Court decided the issue for the entire country, rather than have it decided democratically through legislatures as we have done in New Zealand.

If the Supreme Court does reverse Roe vs Wade, then abortion law will be decided by state legislatures in the US, just as abortion law in New Zealand is decided by the House of Representatives.

The valedictory by Simon Bridges’ last night was one of the most substantive I’ve been to. The core of it was 14 pieces of advice for his 14 years in Parliament. I’m summarising them below, as they are so good:

1. New MPs: don’t breathe through your nose
2. New MPs: don’t let anything ruin your sleep
3. To more senior MPs, don’t be quite so poll and focus group driven – “Polls and focus groups don’t, or at least shouldn’t, tell you what to do. They should only ever be an aid, helping you to decide how to get to where you think is right.”
4. Have less small-target, short-term political tactics and more large long-term strategies
5. Independent thought and differences of opinion are actually good
6. This point about independent thinking also applies to the press. If every one of you has the same basic position on a complex matter, you are probably all engaged in group thinking, quite probably wrong.
7. The most important job of the media is to hold the powerful to account, and let me give you a clue: it’s the Government that has the power
8. Experts don’t know everything. Nothing in politics and government comes down to the science says this: there are always wider social, economic, and normative implications as well, which we have a duty to have an opinion and a side on.
9. To MPs on select committees: spend less time arguing where the comma goes in a report no one will read, please, and more time debating from your principles and values for your electorates and communities.
10. MPs in Parliament should be bold and without fear or favour as Clark, Cullen, Hide, Peters and Mallard have been. We over-sanitise this place at our and, more importantly, society’s peril.
11. Parliamentary reform to strengthen it against the executive is important. Select committees should not be rubber stamps for Government. The Speaker should be elected by secret ballot.
12. National is and must be a very broad church of urban, provincial and rural and of liberal, centrist, and conservative. We must be scrupulous to allow all these views through without too much control, let alone censorship, and seek to keep the balance, the peace, among all those values and interests without letting one dominate the other.
13. They say politics is Hollywood for ugly people but it’s far from all glamour and glitz, however, and I do think politics is getting harder.
14. This job done well is tough and not actually that well-remunerated for what it entails. So on MPs’ pay, let’s all remember that we need the highest quality people here—not just the very wealthy, for whom money doesn’t matter

Simon is a big loss to Parliament.

Newshub reports:

It asked: Do you think the Government should give New Zealanders a tax cut in the upcoming May Budget?

A clear majority – 68.7 percent – say yes, hand back over the cash, while only 23.7 percent said no. Even a majority of Labour voters – 54.2 percent – want a tax cut, with 35.7 percent saying no. 

That’s a huge majority, basically 3:1 in favour of tax cuts in the Budget. Even a majority of Labour voters want a tax cut.

But are they going to get a shock. Not only will Labour not give tax cuts in this Budget, they are delivering a tax hike on every employee and employer in New Zealand. The average family is going to have their take home pay cut by $100 a month, to fund Labour’s unemployment insurance so people made redundant will get up to $400 a day for seven months.

Stuff reports on how a teacher called Ngamihi Moses did the following:

• On a school camp instructed six misbehaving year eight students to get into a van
• Dropped them off 10 km from camp to an area unknown to them
• Told them to walk either 200 km back home to Whakatane or 10 km back to camp
• Drove off
• Kids split into two groups of three
• 20 minutes later the teacher picked up the kids walking back to camp
• Could not find the kids walking to Whakatane
• After midnight the other three kids were found
• The teacher then punished the kids who tried walking to Whakatane by stripping them to their underwear and made to stand outside in the cold until they apologised

For all that he merely gets to go on a course, and have mentoring for a year and have to tell future employers for just two years. Then it is all wiped.

A Curia poll for the Taxpayers’ Union has found 59% of NZers believe government funding of private media companies has undermined the independence of media with only 21% disagreeing.

The media will of course never report on this poll finding, but it should concern them. It doesn’t matter whether or not the media have compromised their independence by taking the $55 million, because the vast majority of NZers believe they have been compromised. Taking the money has been the largest own goal for media.

Note that this was not a partisan issue. A plurality of Labour and Green voters also agreed media independence has been compromised.

The $55 million PIJF (Public Interest Journalism Fund) is unpopular. Only 24% of New Zealanders support it. Time to scrap it.