This chart above shows the increase in deaths over the last three months in the seven OECD countries with the highest death rates.

In May the UK, Sweden and US had increases of over 40%, Belgium, Italy and France around 20% and Spain around 10%.

In June four countries had the increase in deaths down to under 5%, UK was around 15% and Sweden and US around 20%.

July shows Belgium, Spain, Italy and France with increases of under 2%. UK is at 6%, Sweden 8% and the US is the only country where the rate is accelerating with a 25% increase in deaths last month.

All these countries were hard hit in the initial wave. But six of them have managed to more or less get things under control. The US clearly has not.

Twelve states are having over 20 people a day die. It is quite possible that a death toll of around 1,000 people a day will continue until there is a vaccine in the middle of 2021, which means the death toll may exceed that of World War II for the United States!

Stuff reports:

The Labour Party has thrown its support behind the campaign to make Matariki a public holiday, but not all the country’s major parties are in favour.

MP Nanaia Mahuta, the minister for Māori development and local government, told Stuff the party would need to seek advice regarding an appropriate date before making it official.

“Labour would be supportive of recognising Matariki as a public holiday. We would need to seek advice perhaps at the select committee to consider the most appropriate date.”

I’m all for having Matariki as a public holiday but opposed to struggling employers being forced to fund additional paid leave.

So the obvious answer is replace an existing public holiday with Matariki. Either Labour Day or Queen’s Birthday.

The Herald reports:

The Green Party is campaigning for water-only drinks at sports clubs – and National Party’s leader Judith Collins is outraged.

Collins took aim at the Greens for their “crazy” policy, when talking to comedy duo Jono and Ben on The Hits this morning.

“I’m so sick of these people, I mean stop telling everyone what to do and being such bossy boots,” Collins said on the show.

She said she couldn’t get to sleep so decided to have a quick look at the Green Party policies “because I thought that should get me to sleep but it woke me up”.

One policy in particular grabbed her attention: “Support water-only policies in schools, hospitals, and sports clubs,” as stated on the Green’s website.

“So what does that mean? No coffee, so there you are, a poor parent on the sidelines watching your kid get pummelled in rugby or hockey or whatever, and you’re standing there with no coffee.”

Jono and Ben then asked: “What about the beers after the game in the clubrooms?”

Collins fired back, saying: “Exactly, I mean why would you put your body through all that hardship if you didn’t get any reward. Only to have a nice water at the end, I mean for goodness sake.”

The Greens say the policy has been taken out of context but the reality is they love to ban things. One election I counted up over 100 things they wanted to ban.

The Herald reports:

But, speaking to the Nation this morning, Peters was adamant that would not happen.
He pointed out that when then Prime Minister Helen Clark called a snap election in 2002, his party was also polling at 2 or 3 per cent.

But on election day, NZ First won just shy of 11 per cent of the total vote.

Sometimes NZ First has gone up in the last eight weeks. Somtimes they have gone down. Let’s look at the eight MMP elections and what the Colmar Brunton poll said around eight weeks out, and what they got.

So on average NZ First does 0.8% better in an election than they are in the ONCB poll eight weeks out. So if the average applies, their 2% may end up 2.8%.

The two elections after their spell in Government was 1999 and 2008. In 1999 they only did 0.2% better and in 2008 they did 2.3% better. But they need to do 3% better.

It is not impossible. In 2011 and 2014 they increased their vote by over 4% in the last eight weeks. But they were in opposition then, not Government.

Can never rule it out, but the odds are against them.

My blood boiled as I read the usual nonsense in an oped in Stuff about early childhood education. Basically the authors all but call for private ECEs to be banned.

They are part of the tribe of educationalists who hate choice in education, and think we should just attend whichever school or centre we are told to.

As a parent, I love the fact that the early childhood sector has a massive diversity of ECEs. You can choose between kindergartens, playcentres, sole private ECEs, to nationwide chains.

We started researching ECEs before Benjamin was born. We evaluated close to a dozen that were within driving distance of our then home. We looked at their ERO reports, their available hours and days, their staff ratios, their philosophy, do they provide meals, their outdoor space etc.

We then shortlisted four of them, and visited them and finally chose one that we thought was best suited for Ben. And it was brilliant. And you know what, it happens to be privately owned.

And when we moved, we went through it again evaluating up to a dozen choices, and then deciding, and again we chose one which has also turned out great, Amazing teachers, amazing philosphy etc. And this one also happens to be privately owned.

Both ECEs we selected had the highest possible rating from the ERO of “Very Well Placed”, which is rare.

Do I give a f*** that the owners (who are dedicated educiontalists by the way) make a living out of owning and managing an ECE? No I don’t. What I care deeply about is the quality of the ECE and the fact we actually have a choice.

Wouldn’t it be amazing, if one had the same choices at school level!

The Herald reports:

A Malaysian national has been busted trying to smuggle more than two million cigarettes into New Zealand in Customs’ largest-ever tobacco seizure.

He was arrested on Wednesday for attempting to evade $2.72m in duty and GST and trying to smuggle 2.2m cigarettes through the border.

Customs’ group manager of intelligence, investigations and enforcement, Dana McDonald, said the tobacco seizure – Customs’ largest ever at the border in a single shipment – was “yet another example of organised crime involvement in tobacco fraud”.

“”Criminals will do whatever they can to make money, regardless of the commodity – it’s just business for them,” she said.

“With cigarette prices in New Zealand amongst the highest globally, tobacco fraud is seen as a lucrative business venture for criminals, and sadly we expect this trend to continue.”

We have taxed tobacco so much, that the result has been an exponential growth in the black market.

This should be a lesson for policy makers.

Steven Calabresi is a co-founder of the conservative Federalist Society. He clerked for Judge Bork and Justice Scalia.

He writes:

I have voted Republican in every presidential election since 1980, including voting for Donald Trump in 2016. I wrote op-eds and a law review article protesting what I believe was an unconstitutional investigation by Robert Mueller. I also wrote an op-ed opposing President Trump’s impeachment.

He voted for Trump, attacked the Mueller investigation and opposed the impeachment. This is no RINO.

I am frankly appalled by the president’s recent tweet seeking to postpone the November election. Until recently, I had taken as political hyperbole the Democrats’ assertion that President Trump is a fascist. But this latest tweet is fascistic and is itself grounds for the president’s immediate impeachment again by the House of Representatives and his removal from office by the Senate.

Trump is actively working to undermine faith in the election process, because hs is behind. Calabresi points out:

The nation has faced grave challenges before, just as it does today with the spread of the coronavirus. But it has never canceled or delayed a presidential election. Not in 1864, when President Abraham Lincoln was expected to lose and the South looked as if it might defeat the North. Not in 1932 in the depths of the Great Depression. Not in 1944 during World War II.

If you can hold elections during a civil war and a world war, you can hold one now.

Election Day was fixed by a federal law passed in 1845, and the Constitution itself in the 20th Amendment specifies that the newly elected Congress meet at noon on Jan. 3, 2021, and that the terms of the president and vice president end at noon on Jan. 20, 2021. If no newly elected president is available, the speaker of the House of Representatives becomes acting president.

President Trump needs to be told by every Republican in Congress that he cannot postpone the federal election. Doing so would be illegal, unconstitutional and without precedent in American history. Anyone who says otherwise should never be elected to Congress again.

The law states the election will be on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Trump can’t change that.

Ironically if somehow he did manage to stop there being an election, he wouldn’t get to stay on. Nancy Pelosi would become Acting President on 20 January 2021 if there was no President-Elect or Vice-President-Elect.

Radio NZ reports:

The victims of New Zealand’s first convicted slaver and human-trafficker are “ecstatic” to learn their abuser will spend the more than a decade behind bars, Immigration New Zealand says. …

The Hastings-based Samoan chief, Joseph Auga Matamata, was sentenced on Monday to 11 years in prison and ordered to pay over $NZ183,000 in reparations to his 13 victims.

It comes as The Samoa Observer reported that some of his victims thought it his punishment was too light.

But immigration officials who worked closely with his victims during the three-year investigation told RNZ that was not the feedback they had.

“They were ecstatic to be honest. They were relieved it’s over as it’s been a long and harrowing ordeal for them,” said Immigration New Zealand investigations manager Carl Knight.

Over 25 years, Matamata lured his victims to New Zealand with the promise of lucrative work or schooling.

But when they arrived, they worked long hours without pay in the fields around Hastings and in Matamata’s home, where they were often beaten and verbally abused.

The case only came to light in 2017 after two men fled Matamata’s home and went to the police, sparking a three-year international multi-agency investigation that uncovered a web of offending spanning more than two decades.

His victims suffered an extensive shame when they returned home empty handed, because they were supposed to have earned money for their families and their villages, Knight said.

“These people had to go back to their villages in utter shame without any money whatsoever.

“They tried to explain… but it didn’t mean anything because they just weren’t believed. It put not only them, but their families, in a whole lot of despair… sometimes for years,” he said.

Matamata held the chiefly title of a Matai, which meant he was revered by his workers who trusted him and obeyed him completely.

Matamata is basically unrepentant and thinks he had the right to make all these people work for next to nothing for him. 11 years in prison should give him time to reflect.

I’ve done a full analysis of the ONCB poll on Patreon. I’ll repeat here the section on Judith Collins:

Two questions were good for Judith Collins. Let’s look at both of them. The first is her 20% Preferred PM rating in her first CB poll as Opposition Leader. Here is how other new Opposition Leaders have gone in their first poll:

* Phil Goff 6%
* David Shearer 11%
* David Cunliffe 12%
* Andrew Little 12%
* Jacinda Ardern 30%
* Simon Bridges 10%
* Todd Muller 13%

So the 20% for Collins is well above any other recent opposition leader, but not at the level Ardern got.

The even more positive rating for Collins is her approval rating as Opposition Leader. It was 56% approved, 23% disapproved for net approval of +27%. Of course not in the same league as Ardern, but it shows many more people approve of her leadership than are currently voting National and that provides an opportunity for National, than previous leaders did not have.

But the challenge for National is large. I note:

The only parties guaranteed to make it are Labour, National and ACT so the hope for the centre right is National and ACT combined can outpoll Labour. A big ask as they need to take 8% off Labour. But Labour will shed some support – the question is to whom?

If Labour stays where they are. they win easily. If Labour sheds to Greens, they win. If Labour sheds to National, then it gets competitive. The next poll (probably after the campaign launches) will show us which scenario is occuring.

A petition from the mother of murdered Police Officer Matthew Hunt:

Petition request

That the House of Representatives urgently amend the Sentencing Act 2002 and Parole Act 2002 to automatically decline parole eligibility for offenders convicted of the murder of police officers.

Petition reason

In memory of killed police officer Constable Matthew (Matt) Hunt, my beloved son. My son lost his life whilst serving his country. If you truly believe what was said by numerous politicians after Matthew’s death that police lives matter passing this legislation should be done without delay. I believe our sentencing laws for murder do not adequately condemn the actions that result in the murder of Police Officers.

I’ve signed the petition and urge others to do the same.

Stuff reports:

An affordable intercity passenger rail network that can compete with flights should be a priority for government, Associate Transport Minister Julie Anne Genter says.

Genter wants subsidies for the KiwiRail-run Northern Explorer train service so it can be transformed from a premium tourist service to a low-cost passenger train.

“The service hasn’t been very reliable recently. But it still could serve a really basic need for people to get between cities without a car,” she said.

The Northern Explorer’s 680-kilometre journey along the main rail trunk of the North Island has been running since 1909, but has been paused indefinitely since March 22 due to Covid-19.

The Greens really do not understand what motivates people to make travel choices.

The notion that people who fly between Auckland and Wellington will take the train instead if it is cheaper is bollocks.

People fly between Auckland and Wellington because it is a one hour flight against a 12 hour train. If I have to attend a meeting in Auckland I sometimes fly there and back in the same day. For me to take the train, I would be away for three days.

I am one of the rare people who has taken the train multiple times. When you are not working and don’t have kids, it can be a great way to travel. But it is unsuitable for most travelling NZers.

The train service between Wellington and Auckland competes on price with the bus service. It doesn’t compete with the planes on price, but on time.

If one had a spare $20 billion to put in a 350 km/hr train between Auckland and Wellington, then it might compete with planes, but that would be even more uneconomic.

The reality is tourists, not NZers, were the main users of the train service and without them you are just pouring money down a black hole to have a train travel 650 kms with half a dozen people on board.

You could make the fares half price and you wouldn’t get any significant transfer from planes to trains, because it is an 11 hour journey.

The report by Michael Heron QC is here. It is no surprise as we already know who was responsible, but the findings are:

• Michelle Boag and Hamish Walker were responsible for the unauthorised disclosure, their motivations were political and their actions unjustified
• The Ministry of Health should have had better protection over personal information
• Walker admits his judgment was impaired due to his distress at being labelled a racist
• The actions of Walker and Boag fell below the standards NZers expect but Heron appreciates their candor and regret

The Herald reports:

Demand for water in Wellington could outstrip supply in as little as six years, prompting authorities to undertake a business case into household water meters across the metropolitan region.

The supply-demand balance for water was last assessed in 2017, but a report tabled at a Wellington Water Committee meeting this year shows the situation has changed.

The population growth rate has exceeded those earlier forecasts, meaning the region will need to find a new water source well before 2040.

It could be needed as early as 2026 if demand and projected population growth continue on the trajectory they’re on now, a Sustainable Water Supply Target and Policy report said.

Water metering has proven controversial in the region over recent years, with politicians kicking the can down the road or voicing concerns over any system that involved charging people for water.

But Auckland’s water crisis is a dire example of a water supply gone wrong and why the debate in Wellington can no longer be pushed to the back of the queue.

I think water meters are a no brainer. It costs money to store and supply water and someone has to pay for that. The current system means you pay regardless of your use so a elderly pensioner living in an CBD apartment may use 10% of the water of a family with a large garden but pay the same or more.

When the cost of water is correlated to how much you use, it encourages conservation. Water meters are both fairer and reduce costs for everyone as you have less wasted water.

I live in an area with no mains water, so we rely on our two 30,000 litre rainfall tanks. This encourages you to be very careful with water usage, knowing that if we use too much in summer we will have to pay $250 for an extra 10,000 litres.

Andy Haden has died aged 69, from cancer. He played 41 tests for the All Blacks from 1972 to 1985. I was aged 5 to 18 at the time, so he was one of the All Black greats I grew up to.

A huge towering man at two metres tall. He dominated the field. He potentially had a good career as an actor also, based on his on field antics!

One of the best All Blacks we have seen.

Peter Nicholas in The Atlantic looks at six reasons why Trump may still win, despite being behind in both national polls, and state polls. They are:

1. The economy could come back just enough.
2. Polling could be wrong (again).
3. Trump can campaign all day long.
4. Biden’s got his own problems.
5. Biden voters might not get to vote.
6. What if there’s an October surprise?

Just 100 days or so to go!

Stuff reports:

The Government is spending $51m in an attempt to keep the international education sector afloat through the ravages of Covid-19, as it warns them not to expect students for the rest of the year.

Schools, universities, and other institutions that rely on lucrative international students have been under serious strain through the border closure.

The sector is worth around $5b a year to the economy, according to a report from Education New Zealand.

The $51 million is 1% of the lost income to the economy.

Its madness we’re not allowing in long-stay people (ie not tourists) so long as they go through testing and isolation.

The decision to not allow foreign students back will result in thousands of job losses that could have been prevented.

The Herald reports:

National Party leader Judith Collins has revealed Kiwis wanting to start a business will be able to access up to $20,000 from KiwiSaver under its small-business policy.

She told Mike Hosking on Newstalk ZB this morning that the money belonged to people yet they couldn’t access it.

“The rainy day is here now but they need to have that start. It’s their money so why can’t they use it?”

The policy is intended to involve measures to make it easier for people who have lost jobs through the Covid-19 economic downturn to start a business.

Collins explained the National policy was about creating a way for cash-strapped people who had lost their job in the wake of the Covid lockdown to get businesses going with their retirement funds.

This is an excellent policy. Just as you can use your KiwiSaver to help you buy a house, this will mean you can also use it to help you start up your own business.

Stuff reports:

New Zealand has suspended its extradition treaty with Hong Kong, saying it can no longer trust that the city’s justice system is independent of China.

Foreign Minister Winston Peters issued a statement on Tuesday, saying New Zealand would also change how it controls the trade of sensitive goods – such as military technology or “dual-use” goods which could have military applications – with Hong Kong.

The suspension of an extradition treaty means New Zealand will no longer agree to deport any person to Hong Kong, if charged with a serious crime.

Foreign affairs officials had been reviewing New Zealand’s relationship with Hong Kong, after Beijing imposed a security law on the city which has been widely condemned for cracking down on democracy in the city and compromising a “one country, two systems” arrangement.

This is a reasonable and proportionate move. If Hong Kong is losing its independent judicial system, we shouldn’t automatically accept extradition requests from them.

For many years China was liberalising both its economy but also the country as a whole. But it is clear that in the past few years it is now becoming more authoritarian.

When China was heading in the right direction, engaging more with it was sensible. Now it is heading in the wrong direction, we should be more cautious.

If we really want to send China a message, the four universities that have China funded Confucius Institutes should decline to renew the agreements.

Stuff reports:

Goldsmith said he wanted to remind listeners that the Labour government had “squandered” within two years the surpluses it inherited from the National government.

“The previous National government, we had to borrow a lot of money to get us through the Global Financial Crisis, and the Canterbury earthquakes – we had to borrow $50 billion,” Goldsmith said.

“And then with good economic management, and careful spending and an absolute focus on growth, we got on top of that and restored New Zealand’s prosperity to the extent that in 2017 when we left government, we left an inheritance of massive government surpluses, a rapidly growing economy, and jobs being created – 10,000 jobs a month.

“And within two short years, before the Covid-19 crisis, this government had taken that inheritance and squandered that entire surpluses and were projecting a budget deficit before the Covid-19 situation occurred,” he said.

This is a key message.

Labour out the country into recession even before the GFC in 2008 and National inherited a projected decade of deficits. Strong economic management saw those deficits become surpluses and debt repaid.

Labour squandered the surpluses within two years, before Covid-19. And once again we are facing a decade or more of deficits. The only solution Labour will have is massive tax increases.