Two people charged in connection with the NZ First Party donations’ scandal are alleged to have fraudulently depositing more than $740,000 into NZ First Foundation account.
That is not pocket change.
Charging documents obtained by Stuff allege the pair, between September 30, 2015 and February 14, 2020, deposited a total of $746,881 into two separate accounts including the New Zealand First Foundation (NZFF).
The SFO alleges the pair intended to deceive NZ First’s party secretary, and/or the Electoral Commission.
“The defendants adopted a fraudulent device, trick or stratagem, whereby party donations for the Party were paid into the bank accounts of [suppressed] and the NZFF and not notified to the Party Secretary, or declared by the Party Secretary to the Electoral Commission,” the documents stated.
The Electoral Act is crystal clear. S207(B) states “Every person to whom a party donation is given or sent must, within 10 working days after receiving the donation, either transmit the donation to the party secretary; or deposit the donation into a bank account nominated by the party secretary.“
And if the Party Secretary did not know, he or she could not notify the Electoral Commission.
They have the Democrats at 94% probability to keep the House.
Specifically they are forecasting 237 seats for the Democrats and 198 for the GOP. This would be a small four seat gain for the Democrats.
Now there are models for the presidency, Senate and House, we can calculate some odds for overall outcomes.
The Senate is 68% likely to flip to the Democrats and they have Biden at 84% to win the presidency. So overall the chance of Democrats holding both chambers and the presidency is 65%.
A campaign to lower the voting age to 16 has failed to win over a judge in a preliminary legal argument seeking to advance the cause.
The campaign had wanted a High Court judge to declare that the current minimum voting age of 18 discriminated on the basis of age.
Any decision to lower the minimum voting age would be for Parliament to make but a judge’s declaration would have helped clarify the law.
In a decision issued from the High Court in Wellington on Wednesday, Justice Jan-Marie Doogue said restricting voting to people aged 18 was a justified limit on the right not to be subject to age discrimination.
This is not a huge surprise.
The Judge noted:
It is also worth noting that for the purposes of the United Nations Convention on the Rights of the Child a “child” is defined as “every human being below the age of eighteen years.”
In summary, I consider it is reasonable for a democratic society to grant voting rights to adults and not children, and to draw a line between adults and children at the age of 18.
Pretty basic principle – children don’t get the vote, adults do.
Age may be an imperfect proxy for maturity or competence; there will always be precocious children above, and incompetent adults below, the line wherever it is drawn. But a bright line is reasonable when establishing eligibility at the population level.
I’d be happy to go for a competency based eligibility for voting, rather than age. I have a long list of people who clearly should not qualify 🙂
I’m now at home recovering from my appendectomy. It was the first time I have been an non-elective inpatient at a hospital.
Thanks to the good wishes from so many people. For those interested, here is the story of the 48 hours.
Sunday 1 pm
At Chocolate Fish Cafe with the family. Outside supervising Ben whizzing around on the scooters when I appeared to pull a muscle in my abdomen. Well that is what I assumed it was. The weird thing is I wasn’t stretching or anything. But it came out of nowhere.
Sunday 1.30 pm
Drive home. Took Panadol as it was fairly uncomfortable.
Not feeling great. Have a lie down. Take temperature – normal. Still in discomfort but not huge. Despite no temperature feel hot so take a shower.
Sunday 5.00 pm
Still twinging away. Take ibuprofen. Feeling nauseous. Noy very hungry.
Google symptoms for appendicitis. Had assumed my pain was muscular as I thought the appendix was lower down the body but Dr Google informs me the pain is often to the right of the belly button where it was. Had the symptom of nausea but no fever or diarrhea. The pain was’t huge so was thinking I’d maybe see a doctor tomorrow.
Sunday 5.30 pm
Decide to go into the After Hours Medical Centre as a precaution. Take laptop and a book with me, in case I am there late
Drive in and get there around 6.30 pm and see triage nurse and then a doctor.
Doctor is unsure whether it is appendicitis. My pain level is only 3.5/10. I am walking okay and the urine test was negative. But he can feel a hernia there. Luckily he errs on side of caution and rings hospital and the duty registrar says they’ll look at me.
Sunday 7.30 pm
Drive to hospital and go to ED, after passing the Covid-19 checkpoint. Seen by a triage nurse again and do another urine test.
It’s a polling night (every night is during the campaign) so I’m working on my laptop in the ED waiting room setting up report templates for later on.
Transferred up to Ward 7 for assessment. They do a blood test also and that test also comes back negative. My pain level is still 3.5 and they are not sure if it is appendicitis or not. They say best to be safe and have me stay in for observation and they’ll do a scan in the morning.
While waiting for test results I set up the assessment room as a temporary office and work on poll results.
I finish the report around 11 pm and then go to the main ward area to crash for the night.
Sunday 11.30 pm
Pain is increasing significantly. Am glad I didn’t go home. They give me Tramadol as well as Paracetamol. Tramadol is an opioid painkiller and a reasonable step up.
Monday 1.30 am
Despite the Tramadol the pain is getting worse. Comes and goes but spikes at probably an 8.5/10 on the pain scale. Not to be fair that is the male pain scale, so probably just a 2.5 on the female pain scale, but nevertheless was enough for me to be actually yelling out loud.
Am now given Sevredol which is Morphine based. Have high hopes of this, and thought would finally allow me to sleep. Alas even the Sevredol didn’t remove the pain (maybe reduced it to a 6.5) and I am thinking that if this isn’t Appendicitis then I sure as hell want to know what it is. Wishing I never saw the Alien movie.
Monday 2.30 am
I start shivering. I think I must be cold so just need another sheet on top. I hate being a nuisance so don’t actually buzz a nurse, and just crawl under the sheets to try and warm up. After 15 minutes of shivering and shaking I buzz a nurse to ask if they would mind getting me another sheet or blanket. They look at me almost convulsing and say they think I have a fever. Indeed I do have a raging fever.
When any movement causes your abdomen to send agonising pain along your nerves, a shaking fit isn’t ideal. Around this stage I start to think the euthanasia law would be useful around now.
The nurses are trying to get antibiotics into me via IV line. The problem is have you ever tried to get a line into someone who is doing horizontal break dancing. I don’t recall details clearly but I think it took 3 or 4 doctors and nurses to do it, with some holding me down.
Am worried the appendix may have burst, but there is no way of knowing.
Monday 3.30 am
Bliss. The fever has subsided back to 38 degrees (not sure what it was at its peak) and the abdominal pain has lessened also. I do have a serious thought that if morphine can’t effectively negate my pain from an inflamed appendix, then what the hell must it be like for people with terminal cancer, and I become an even more ardent supporter of the End of Life Choice Act.
Monday 7 am
Not really slept but it is breakfast time. Except no breakfast as I have been on zero food and water since 2 am (last food was 5.30 pm). The IV line is working though and I even turn down pain killers. Still have a slight fever though.
Do video calls with the kids. Ben very interested in the five different bandages on my arms where there has been lines or blood taken.
Get taken in a wheelchair for CT scan. Doesn’t take long and back to the ward.
Monday 10 am
Surgeons come around and tell me scan has confirmed appendicitis. This is not a surprise after last night. The good news is the appendix hasn’t burst and it looks to be a uncomplicated case.
They say they heard it was a rough night. They ask me if I want the appendix removed. This is one of the simpler decisions in your life. If I was 25 and single and propositioned by Gal Gadot I’d take longer to say yes than I took to agree to having the appendix out.
Get visited by partner who brings clothes and also by an old Otago Uni friend who is a radiologist at the hospital. We’d been trying to catch up for months, so a silver lining.
Spend a bit of time on the laptop setting up the two polls for the night, and e-mail them off to my staff. Cancel several meetings scheduled for the week.
Monday 3 pm
My time for theatre has come. They whizz my bed down and I go through the normal routine of repeating name and DOB a dozen times to ensure they have the right person. They ask if I want to keep the appendix. I know three year old Ben would love to see it, but I also know equally it will gross out the rest of us, so decline.
98% of appendectomies are done by keyhole surgery, which is a lot better than in the old days.
They start the anaesthetic and I then wake up around 5.30 pm in the second stage recovery ward.
Monday 6.30 pm
Finally get to eat for first time in 24 hours. Not that hungry surprisingly but have some mince, potato and peas.
Very drowsy still. Dad visits. We chat, but don’t remember much details.
Monday 8.30 pm
Still feeling drowsy but data collection for polling finishes at 9 pm so I gingerly get out of bed and grab my laptop. Quite sore to lean over or walk so takes a fair bit of time to set it up on the food tray above my bed.
Start poll analysis at 9 pm despite still having anaesthetic in my body. Hoping I don’t make a mistake and record Advance NZ at 8% or something.
Finish work at 11 pm. Quite pleased that I have managed to complete poll reports on normal schedule, hours after surgery. Others may think rather mad, but I don’t really have anyone to delegate the analysis to. 95% of the operations are delegated, but not the analysis.
Feeling much better than before the operation so only take some paracetamol.
Tuesday midnight
Get my obs checked. The machine beeps because I have low blood pressure. I assure nurse this is normal.
Tuesday 4 am
Am sleeping this night, but being woken every four hours for obs means still fairly tired. A bit sore too, so up the pain killer to Tramadol.
Tuesday 8 am
Another video call with the kids then breakfast – weetbix! Ben has decided he has a sore stomach also and wants to come to hospital.
Tuesday 9 am
Surgeons visit. They come in a flock of five or so. Good news is all clear and I can be discharged. Yay.
Go and have a shower. Slightly alarmed that there is a fairly large pool of blood in the shower and on me. But turns out it is from my hand (where the line had been), not from the surgery so that was ok.
Get discharge papers and prescriptions. No heavy lifting or driving for a week or two. While the keyhole surgery is less intrusive than other surgery, you still have quite a bit of discomfort, especially the hole through your belly button. I am shuffling more than walking.
Get picked up and home around midday – so all over within 48 hours of the first symptom.
Nurses and doctors at Wellington Hospital all great. Excellent care. Glad I live in a country with a good health system.
Will take a while to recover. Was pretty painful yesterday and took Tramadol at night. Feeling a bit better today though. but walking and leaning over still a hassle. Having to work every night until 11 pm is not helping, but the appendix wasn’t willing to wait until after the election!
Just one poll but the 538 polling average has the gap now at 8.9% and growing and Biden at 83% probability to win. Real Clear Politics has Biden with 374 EV votes to 164 for Trump.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg has unveiled tax cuts worth up to $5490-a-year for families and will demand Parliament urgently legislate the relief to ensure the cash can hit workers’ pay packets by the end of the month, in a big spending federal Budget.
Promising the ‘instant’ tax cuts will offer hope in a year marked by “floods, droughts, fires, and a global pandemic”, the Budget will also offer a new wage subsidy to bosses who hire young, unemployed workers.
Sadly we have a Government here that believes the only acceptable fiscal stimulus is them deciding to spend more money, not giving taxpayers more of their own money to spend.
Labour in 2017 said their goal was to get NZ to 100% renewable electricity by 2035. A few weeks ago they announced their target was now to be 100% renewable by 2030.
You might assume that for them to bring their target date forward by five years, they had huge success in the last three years in increasing the share of renewable electricity?
Oh dear. Actually it has gone slightly down under Labour, and after a huge increase over the last nine years.
I guess in Labour world only moving 0.5% in the wrong directions counts as a stunning success!
In April 2019, Symmans emailed Dalton about the possibility of attending a health and safety briefing run by a specialist consultancy at a meeting of the event steering group.
“This [is] a workshop to identify ACEs risks,” Symmans wrote, adding that Horton “will be attending. [You] are also invited to attend.” Dalton replied minutes later, indicating he did not want to attend.
“I would rather staple my cock to a burning building [than] attend a Health and Safety briefing – are you kidding me, that would be the most fucking boring arse covering load of mind numbing bullocks ever invented.”
The 2020 General Election is just 11 days away, and all around New Zealand, political parties are promising much. Whether what is promised will ever be delivered is a moot point; I suspect we will all be sceptical if a party promises a Year of Delivery again!
Jacinda Ardern and Grant Robertson rolled into Christchurch yesterday, promising the residents of Christchurch a new covered stadium. That’s great, and few would begrudge Cantabrians a level of comfort in which to watch sport, especially if they have sat outside at Addington Stadium on a cold winter night.
But wait; haven’t we been here before? Stuff reported on March 20th that “Cabinet has signed off in its promised $220 million share of the $473m stadium cost after considering the city council’s business case for the project.”
So was yesterday’s announcement by the PM and Finance Minister a new one? Or was it an announcement and promise by the Leader of the Labour Party, and her de facto deputy? Was the Labour Party double-announcing a government-approved project, and claiming it as its own?
A similar, albeit less expensive promise was made to Whanganui voters last month. Labour’s Lower North Island Infrastructure announcement included an allocation of $11.6 million for Whanganui’s iconic Sarjeant Gallery. Was this the same money previously announced by Shane Jones on a visit to Whanganui on 2 July? On that occasion, the money was coming from the New Zealand First Electoral Survival Fund, otherwise known as the Provincial Growth Fund!
As an aside, funding for the Sarjeant Gallery was first promised by Christopher Finlayson in November 2016, but since then the cost of the project has risen significantly, a problem not confined to this project but to projects in general. Does anyone seriously believe the final cost of the Christchurch Stadium will not be significantly more than the current $473 million?
Lastly, Labour’s contribution to the Sarjeant Gallery, welcome as it is, is scheduled for the next year to 18 months. Did no one tell the Prime Minister that in fact work started on the Sarjeant Gallery redevelopment several months ago, and was well underway when the Labour Party so generously handed out taxpayers’ money?
Promises; regardless of who makes them, they ought be treated with a healthy serving of salt.
Footnote: This is a brief return to blogging whilst DPF is incapacitated. I have no desire to resurrect my former blogging life!
A man who shot armed intruders outside his rural home has been found not guilty of murder.
Orren Scott Williams, 38, was also on trial for three counts of wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm for the 2019 incident.
Four men had broken into his west coast Waikato home, near Kāwhia, in the early hours of June 6 – the Crown says to steal cannabis.
The men were masked and armed with a shotgun and machete – they fought with Williams, and held a gun over him and his wife before he made a break for his firearms cabinet.
Outside the Hauturu home, Williams fired at least eight shots from a semi-automatic rifle, and hit all four men – one of whom later died from his wounds.
On Monday, the jury at Hamilton High Court started deliberating at 10.50am and returned with a verdict of not guilty to both murder and manslaughter around 4pm.
The jurors also found Williams not guilty of the charges of wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm.
Sounds a fair decision. If you break into someone’s place with weapons, they get to act in self defence.
The Crown had said Williams knew the men were leaving when he shot at them in his driveway.
“The Crown says it’s hardly acting in defence of yourself and your family, shots fired in anger, to tell people to get lost,” Justice Peters paraphrased.
The defence, on the other hand, said when the car stopped part-way down the drive Williams thought the men were regrouping.
He fired the first shot after seeing the nearby shape of a man he thought had a gun, and thinking “it’s either him or me”.
The defence argued that “in the circumstances you don’t just stand back and think, oh well, a couple of shots should do the trick”, Justice Peters said.
If they only had machetes the Crown might have had a case. Nut the offenders had a shotgun also.
Hopefully those involved in the attempted armed robbery, who survived, stop committing armed robberies.
In her first policy announcement and campaign rally as party leader, Ms Ardern unveiled the party’s plan to tackle Auckland’s transport woes at a rally on the city’s waterfront this afternoon.
The list of those infected at the top ranks of the US Government or Trump campaign is growing. It seems Covid-19 most likely spread at a function to celebrate Trump’s Supreme Court pick. 150 people were in a crowded room, and not a single mask was worn.
President Donald Trump
First Lady Melania Trump
RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel
Trump Campaign Manager Bill Stepien
Senior Counsellor to the President, Hope Hicks
Former Counsellor to the President, Kellyanne Conway
Senator Mike Lee of Utah
Senator Thom Tillis of North Carolina
So that is the candidate, the head of the party organisation and the head of the campaign all infected.
Also even after Trump was informed Hicks was positive (and hence he might be also), he went ahead with a fundraiser.
The next debate is on October 15th and the advice is that Trump should remain isolated until after that date. So they will need to decide if the 2nd debate is cancelled or postponed.
The latest Real Clear Politics Electoral Map has Biden ahead with 375 EC votes to 163 for Trump. This is on polls before he got Covid-19. States which Trump won where he now trails are:
Arizona (11)
Iowa (6)
Wisconsin (10)
Michigan (16)
Ohio (18)
Pennsylvania (20)
North Carolina (15)
Georgia (16)
Florida (29)
If this results eventuated it would be the biggest landslide since 1996 and the worst result from an incumbent President since 1980.
TVNZ’s Q+A has released a poll of 500 people in Auckland Central.
A poll a couple of weeks ago by TV3’s The Nation had Labour’s Helen White 16% ahead of National’s Emma Mellow.
This poll has the gap at just 5%, which is within the margin of error, and shows the race is now very close.
The results are:
Helen White (Lab) 35% (-7.3% from The Nation poll)
Emma Mellow (Nat) 30% (+3.4%)
Chloe Swarbrick (Green) 26% (+1.8%)
Swarbrick is 9% behind White, which is well outside the margin of error. However if Swarbrick does pick up support from White, it will benefit Mellow’s chances.
If the gap has gone from 16% to 5% in a fortnight, then it could be a very tight race between White and Mellow over the final two weeks.
In the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton poll, New Zealanders were asked, ‘Do you think the voting age should be reduced to 16?’
Only 13 per cent said yes while the vast majority (85 per cent) said no. The rest don’t know.
So lowering the voting age is almost the most unpopular thing you can propose.
National leader Judith Collins says she doesn’t think it needs to be lowered, while Labour leader Jacinda Ardern says she “wouldn’t rule it out in the future”.
Last night there was a candidate’s debate in Auckland Central. I’ve been sent a transcript of the Q+A for a question on 5G.
Audience Member: Given that the proposed higher frequencies for 5G have had very little testing for, thank you, [mic given] – i’l start again, given that the proposed frequencies for 5G have had very little safety testing for humans, for insects [inaudible] … should we be rolling out this untested technology in Auckland city centre?
The question is based on a false premise. There has been massives of safety testing of the frequencies used for 5G. To quote the PMCSA:
Radiation that has frequencies higher than that of visible light, like the ultraviolet radiation rays in sunlight, and X-rays, can damage the cells in our bodies, potentially causing cancer if exposure is high. These types of waves are called ‘ionising radiation’, which reflects their ability to break the chemical bonds in molecules, which can damage cells. So exposure to sunlight is linked with skin cancer for those who spend a lot of time in the sun without protection.
In contrast, the radio waves used for 5G have frequencies that are ten thousand times too low to damage molecules (so are called ‘non-ionising’). The only fully documented way 5G radio waves can cause harm is through their heating effect and this can only happen at very high intensities.
Radio waves can heat our body if we are over-exposed to them. However, these effects can only occur when exposed directly to a very powerful source so that the heat builds up enough to damage tissue before it dissipates. 5G sources are simply not powerful enough to cause damage in this way.
As the thermal effects of radio waves are well-understood, the limits at which they can potentially begin to cause harm are clearly defined. NZ has set its own standards, which are much lower than this limit (about 50 times lower). This means that there is a large safety margin built into our standard.
So we do know the frequencies are non-ionising and the level of 5G waves is at less than 2% of the level which could cause harm from heating.
So how did the candidates answer the question?
Emma: I’m very supportive of 5G. I think it’s fantastic technology that will help revolutionise some of our industries and help our America’s cup guys win the cup next year [inaduable] other things like science and technology for a number of advanced medical operations. I’m really excited about what the opportunities are for us as a country. We invested in ultra-fast broadband network for New Zealand. We got through Covid because we had that technology and I’m excited for what’s to come.
Excellent response. Ignores the misinformation about 5Gb being unsafe and talks up its huge benefits.
Vernon: Our future in New Zealanders is embracing technology and innovation, not going the opposite direction. My understanding, and I’m sure I’m going to regret saying this, but my understanding of concerns around broadcast frequency is not so much to do with the frequency but the power of the broadcast. So if it’s actually lower power and there are going to be more of these cells then the concern is that actually it’s quite the opposite. You know. You’re not actually being exposed to as much of that particular electro-magnetic radiation the way it works. But look, the way forward is to embrace technology and innovation and not to run away from it.
Also an excellent response. Actually quotes the science about it being the power of the broadcast.
Chloe: I guess, I guess just in addition to tautoko to these two points I would also add there has been understandably been a history of fear of change and there is often at times like this, particularly over the last decade or two, there has been a lot of information that ends up being shared on social media and on the internet [inaudible] and that in my role, if I have the privilege of representing all of you, I think it is really important to walk through that with you so that there is isn’t this on-going division which has led to some people, for example, marching during lockdowns which is not particularly constructive to all of our public heaths.
A third excellent response backing up the previous two and specifically saying we need to counter misinforation.
Helen: I’m … [inaudible] It’s going to surprise you. I don’t know. It’s not that I am um I … I … I actually take the point of these people. One of the things you get out of politicians is that they pretend they know more than they do. I am, I am an employment lawyer. I have been reading and listening but I don’t know an answer to that question but it doesn’t mean I am actually supportive of you, sir, in that way because I am simply outside of the boundaries of my knowledge and I have to go with what the scientists and the people who do know are telling me in that area but I will read the material that I have been sent. Thank you.
The Labour candidate said she doesn’t know 5G is safe because she’s only a lawyer!!
When someone presents a conspiracy theory to you, you don’t respond by saying you don’t know.
I’m not a physicist but I’m happy to say that 5G is safe, as I can read and comprehend.
I’m not a chemist but I’m happy to say fluoridation in NZ is safe, as I can read anc comprehend.
I’m not a rocket scientist but I’m happy to say the moon landing wasn’t faked.
I’m not a historian but I’m happy to say the holocaust actually happened.
I’m not a microbiologist but I’m happy to say 5G doesn’t cause Covid-19
