Stuff has a story on the leadership of Simon Bridges and I think it is pretty fair covering the highlights and lowlights. One extract:

But Bridges fought back brilliantly at a time the Government would usually take all the attention. Labour had been talking up its 2019 budget for yonks. It was a “Wellbeing Budget” — billed as a new way of doing Government finances — shifting the focus away from blunt metrics like GDP a more rounded view of spending in areas that improved peoples’ wellbeing. 

The Opposition usually disappears around budget time, left responding to huge announcements. Not so for the vaunted Wellbeing budget. A staffer spotted that bits of the budget were easily accessible using a search bar on the Treasury website. National used this vulnerability to glean vast amounts of secret budget information. 

Bridges sent the budget to the press gallery during the middle of the prime minister’s Tuesday morning caucus media run. The Government was flustered. Reporters read lines of the budget to Ardern from their phones.

The saga played out until National finally revealed how it had obtained the information. In the maelstrom, Treasury Secretary Gabriel Makhlouf embarrassed himself by alleging the breach was a “hack”.

That particular episode drove a wedge between the Treasury and the Finance Minister during a week which should have been a career highlight for both. It played to Bridges’ strengths: he leveraged a simple vulnerability in Treasury’s website into a massive hit on the Government’s biggest day of the year. 

National began polling well — very well. It bested Labour in every single One News/Colmar Brunton Poll between the hack and this week.

The 2019 polls reflected a good year for Bridges. In April, he faced down a challenge from Judith Collins, who had been making an unsubtle pitch for the leadership on and off for months. Bridges knew she didn’t have the numbers, and had no compunction telling her so. The challenge was put to bed before it even eventuated and the Bridges-Collins psychodrama began a twelve-month hiatus.

Bridges was helped by repeated Government mistakes. The year began with the utter collapse of Labour’s flagship housing policy KiwiBuild — it ended with the news that its cornerstone transport policy, light rail in Auckland, was on the rocks as well.

2020 — HUGE HIGH BEFORE CRUSHING FALL

2020 began looking even better for Bridges. The hype around Ardern’s Christchurch response had mostly faded. He was making fewer missteps in media appearances — no longer umming and ahhing when asked if he would consider lowering the minimum wage for example, or making jokes about the prime minister’s newborn child. The talk of challenges to his leadership were long gone, with Collins much quieter after having lost Twyford as an opponent.

In February, he made a bold call his caucus mostly agreed with: ruling out working with NZ First after the election. The public seemed to like this move and in two consecutive polls they finally supported his party and ACT to a degree where it could govern.

There were definitely things Simon got wrong, but there was also a hell of a lot he got right.

A reader writes in:

In recent days we’ve seen no new cases of Covid-19. 

The most recent new case was on the 22nd May and this was linked to a known cluster. 

The Ministry of Health (MoH) states ” The case is linked to the St Margaret’s cluster in Auckland and is a household contact of an earlier case.  Because of their connection to the earlier case, the person has been in isolation since the beginning of Level 4. “

Prior to this case, the next most recent case was on the 17th May and again was linked to a known cluster. 

Since the beginning of May there have been a total of 26 new cases, 3 of these have been from overseas travellers and 21 from known cases or clusters. The remaining two (1st and 2nd May) were of an unknown source (at the time of the media release) and were under investigation. 

New Zealand has had no cases that cannot be linked to known clusters and (from the media briefings) these cases were already isolation.

The typical incubation period of Covid-19 is described as two to fourteen days https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html given this it would be reasonable to expect that no transmissions are occurring within the community.

The above, would indicate that we have no community transmission and that any cases are being managed in association with known clusters.

Are our current restrictions now unnecessary? They are causing significant material hardship, large numbers of workers are being made redundant. 

People are increasingly stressed and worried based on the ongoing messagings from the Ministry and the Government for a risk that is negligible, as borne out by the statistics above. 

They key thing is indeed the level of community transmission. This is what triggered the lockdown, but as the reader points out, we’ve been almost a month without a single case of community transmission.

The number of confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the United States is now 102,107. This is the largest death toll in the world, but of course the US ia a very large country.

The top 10 for number of deaths is:

1. US 102,107
2. UK 37,640
3. Italy 33,702
4. France 28.596
5. Spain 27,118
6. Brazil 25,697
7. Belgium 9,364
8. Mexico 8,597
9. Germany 8,533
10. Iran 7,564

Deaths per capita is somewhat different. If we look at major countries death rates per million:

1. Belgium 808
2. Spain 580
3. UK 552
4. Italy 547
5. France 438
6. Sweden 418
7. Netherlands 343
8. Ireland 331
9. US 309
10. Switzerland 222

For the US the key thing will be whether the number of deaths declines, increases or plateaus. The average number of deaths in the last week has been around 1,000 and a fortnight ago was 1,500 and a month ago 2,000.

So if it keeps declining, then all good. Obviously bad if it increases again. But if it plateaus at 1,000 a day that would still mean another 100,000 dead by August and a total death toll of over 250,000 by the election.

Even though the death toll is not just because of the response of the Federal Government, I think it is fair to say that the higher the death toll, the more difficult re-election for Trump is. But what is hard to determine is what the point is when soft Trump voters will defect. Is it 150,000? Is it 200,000? Or doesn’t it matter at all?

Stuff reports:

The Government’s former flagship housing policy is so far behind schedule it will take more than 400 years to reach its initial target of 100,000 homes. It had hoped to reach the target in 10 years.

Initially, the Government had been hoping the rate of building would increase over time as KiwiBuild ramped up, with 1,000 homes built in the first year, 5,000 in the second, and 10,000 in the third, but the rate of building is slowing.

Each month in 2020 seeing tiny increases in the number of KiwiBuild homes built.

The number of KiwiBuild homes built to date stood at 393 at the end of March, equating to roughly 19 homes built each month since the scheme began in June 2018.

At that rate it would take 436 years to complete the remaining 99,607 houses that remain from the 100,000 target.

It must surely be the biggest Government failure of the last 50 years.

The timeframe for completion is so long that it’s fair to say the property market will be in a very different shape by the time the programme is finished. By way of comparison, 436 years ago, Queen Elizabeth I sat on the throne of England. William Shakespeare, though alive, had yet to have his first play performed. 

In terms of the property market, England had not yet begun its colonisation of the Americas, where vast tracts of land were taken through bloody colonisation, depressing the price of land. 

There’s no telling what similar changes are in store for land prices in the next 436 years. 

It’s conceivable that humans may have begun terraforming the surfaces of the Moon or Mars, freeing up land and depressing property prices. In that situation, it is unlikely to see governments of future centuries continuing with the KiwiBuild scheme. 

We have some idea of what will be happening in 2456. Three years earlier in 2453 the Federation launches the USS Enterprise NCC-1701-H. This Enterprise is commanded by Captain Joseph Vincent.

Adam Creighton, the economics editor at The Australian writes:

New Zealand’s economy is in strife. Without major change, our constitutional cousin is in decline. Its public finances are in tatters, its biggest export, tourism, has been obliterated — Air New Zealand announced 4000 job losses this week — and New Zealand police now can enter people’s homes without a warrant. …

In one year, New Zealand has blown 30 years of hard-fought ­fiscal rectitude. Its public debt will explode from the equivalent of 19 per cent of gross domestic product last year to 54 per cent by 2022, on the government’s own figures.

Scott said expanding the deficit, expected to blow out to 10 per cent this year, was the right thing to do. “But looking further out, comparisons with other countries, such as the US and UK, are no basis to justify our large debt ratios; we’re a small, open economy with vulnerable export industries,” he said, noting the share of exports in GDP had been falling steadily for nine years.

30 years of fiscal rectitude gone in a year!

The Prime Minister and Finance Minister, who have not worked in the private sector, spruik the totems of modern left governments — renewable energy, trees, higher tax, equality — but without much to show for it. Plans for a billion trees and 100,000 houses have come close to almost naught, and a capital-gains tax was dumped. Labour made a song and dance about reducing child poverty too, but on six out of nine measures tracked by Statistics New Zealand it is unchanged or worse since 2017, including the share of children living in “material hardship”, which has risen to 13.4 per cent.

They managed 0.3% of their 100,000 houses and 2.5% of their billion trees.

The nation’s draconian response to the coronavirus was questionable, given it is an island with a massive moat and a small population spread over an area the size of Italy. Despite those obvious advantages, the stringency of its lockdown was higher than practically any other country, according to Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government. Deaths per million were the same as Australia’s — just four.

In fact, slightly higher.

Ardern is more popular than ever, and by all accounts is a good person and a great communicator. But if a COVID-19 vaccine remains elusive, New Zealanders may come to question her wisdom as they fall further down the global pecking order. Without economic growth, there won’t be money for more ICU beds.

A good reminder that economic growth is what allows us to have a public health system.

You can now donate to Kiwiblog. Such donations are entirely voluntary of course, but many people indicated they are happy to contribute.

Radio NZ reports:

Tens of thousands in donors’ funds given to the New Zealand First Foundation were spent paying expenses, wages and bills for people closely associated with the New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

The foundation, which has bankrolled NZ First using secret donations from rich business people, spent more than $130,000 on a company run by Brian Henry – the personal lawyer and close friend of Peters.

So $130,000 is paid to a company run by Winston’s lawyer – Brian Henry. The same Brian Henry who is a trustee of the Foundation.

Jamie Henry, Brian Henry’s daughter, received $64,500 in wages and expenses, which included seven identical amounts, totalling $3010, referenced as “rent”. All those costs were paid by the foundation.

An amazing coincidence.

Peters’ partner Jan Trotman also received a payment from the foundation, according to records seen by RNZ.

On July 29 last year, the foundation paid Trotman $3450. The transaction is recorded as “Reimburse-Flt” in what appears to be a reimbursing payment for a flight.

RNZ asked Trotman why the foundation would pay for her air travel but she declined to comment.

She does not appear to have any official role with New Zealand First but has been involved in a business venture with Brian Henry and his son David.

Very strange as she is also eligible for free airfare as an MP’s spouse – unless the travel is for business.

Trotman is a director of New Zealand Future Forest Products (NZFFP), which applied unsuccessfully for a $15 million loan from the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF).

Brian Henry was also a director of NZFFP at the time of the PGF application but Company Office records show he resigned that position on February 19 this year.

Definitely nothing at all to see here.

The SFO will decide whether or not they think any laws have been broken. The other issue is why does NZ First have such a structure where non elected officials control the money from donations, the campaign spending and even the party’s database?

Stuff reports:

Māori and Pacifica waiting for elective surgery have been placed at the top of wait lists in the Wellington region.

Speaking at a Capital and Coast District Health Board meeting today, medical officer John Tait said the Ministry of Health bands people accepted for specialist treatment in a priority ranking.

People are given a score on their level of need and ability to benefit from treatment compared to other people.

“We’ve moved Māori and Pacifica to the top of the band,” he told the meeting.

This is a huge deal.

At present your eligibility for surgery is based on a score that takes into account your individual circumstances. How severe your condition is, how effective surgery might be, your age etc.

CCDHB has said that instead of relying on the actual clinical need, they will prioritise Maori and Pacifika which of course means European patients get demoted – even if they have a greater clinical need. They get punished for their skin colour basically.

The Government has introduced the Films, Videos, and Publications Classification (Urgent Interim Classification of Publications and Prevention of Online Harm) Amendment Bill.

Much of the bill is laudable and worthwhile. But one aspect is repugnant and should be resisted at all costs. It is this part:

The Bill facilitates the establishment of a government-backed (either mandatory or voluntary) web filter if one is desired in the future. It provides the Government with explicit statutory authority to explore and implement such mechanisms through regulations, following consultation.

There is already a voluntary web filter for content such as child pornography. It is used by ISPs covering the vast majority of NZ Internet users including 2 Degrees, Spark and Vodafone.

So there is no need to have a law change for a voluntary filter. The law change is for a compulsory filter.

And if the Government manages to introduce a compulsory filter, I can guarantee it won’t stop at objectionable material.

Over a dozen agencies will queue up demanding it be expanded so they also get the power to block websites. Crown Law will want to block overseas newspapers that break NZ suppression laws. MBIE will want to block any sites Hollywood studios complain about. The Police will want to block websites. The Ministry of Health will want to block websites.

Once you have a compulsory Government filter, it only gets bigger. This bill should be resisted strongly and I hope the Greens live up the work done by Nandor Tanczos and Gareth Hughes who have always been on the side of Internet freedom, and oppose this bill.

Stuff reports:

The ACT Party is calling for a Royal Commission into the Government’s Covid-19 response.

Leader David Seymour said a Commission should look at the rules set by the Government, if they were appropriately balanced and if the Government acted in accordance with the rule of law.

He said it could also consider looking at whether New Zealand’s borders should have been closed earlier; examine the pandemic plan and PPE issues and if the Government had adequate testing to provide data for decision-making.

“There is recent precedent. The Royal Commission into the Canterbury earthquakes was established in April 2011, two months after the February earthquake. The Royal Commission into the Christchurch terrorist attacks was set up the month after the attacks,” he said.

It is unthinkable that there would not be a Royal Commission into our response to Covid-19. It dwarfs all these other events.

“A Royal Commission into the Covid-19 response should report back prior to April 2021.”

He wanted to see an independent Royal Commission investigate the response before next year’s flu season.

“Covid-19 may return next year and we can’t afford to shut down the economy again. Being unprepared for the first major pandemic in 100 years may be understandable, but repeating our mistakes if it comes back next year is totally unacceptable.”

Crisis thinking was very different from honest reflection on what could have done better and he called for “open, honest debate”.

He believed the Commission would need international guidance because too many players were invested in the Government’s response.

I think April 2021 may be too ambitious. But I do think the RC should look at responses around the world and see how our response could be improved.

Hard to read the sentencing notes of Ashley Winter and Kerry Te Amo for the murder of 17 year old Dimetrius Pairama without tearing up.

They didn’t even know her, but ran into her on the streets. They lured her to a property and (for reasons even the Judge doesn’t know) did the following:

• Punched her face
• Kicked her stomach
• Stripped her naked
• Taped her to a chair
• Gagged her
• Cut and shaved her head
• Tortured her by using an aerosol can and lighter on her breasts and genital area
• Poured milk powder and bleach over her head and eyes
• Punched and kicked her further
• Then when they worked out how much trouble they would be in for their actions decided to kill her
• Gave her a choice of stabbing or hanging and hung her
• Stuffed her body in plastic rubbish bags and a drum

The poor girl was beaten and tortured and then knew she was going to be killed. And all because these psychopaths were bored.

Neither defendent has shown any real remorse.

Ms Winter was on her second strike. Her first was attempted rape of a woman in 2014. Despite this she didn’t get life without parole as it was deemed manifestly unjust.

It seems there is almost nothing you can do that will get you life without parole. Not even being an attempted rapist and a barbaric killer.

Marilyn Waring writes:

Louisa Wall is an exceptionally strong local representative. Louisa doesn’t just make speeches, she makes things happen. Look at the examples: tackling period poverty, showers for the homeless and their access to primary health care, working with local churches for hospitality cafes, sight screening and glasses for children in Manurewa, introducing KidsCan to their first high school partnership, in Manurewa. She has a very good grasp of how the system works, how to access information and assistance for those who seek her help, and she responds quickly.

Louisa has been a distinguished Chair of the Health Select Committee. She has demonstrated significant leadership in the cross-party Women Parliamentarians group, and in teams working on marriage equality, abortion, female genital mutilation, mental health and addictions, wellbeing, and end of life legislation, a quality New Zealanders want to see more of in their elected representatives.

More achievements than some Ministers!

Stuff reports:

Waitomo’s six district councillors have filed a complaint against their mayor, alleging he breached the council’s code of conduct. …

On Tuesday, the council will meet to hear public submissions on its annual plan and rates increase.

It’s a key meeting because Robertson had been keenly pursuing avenues to reduce the district’s $40m debt ever since he was voted in as mayor in 2019.

He is a former National MP and former mayor for Papakura but now lives in Piopio.

In 2012 he was appointed to lead a group of commissioners to sort out governance issues at Kaipara District Council, and he was using that experience to change governance and policies at Waitomo.

He had been using online and print media to push his views around debt reduction and the arrival of Covid-19 provided put more pressure on all councils to look at reducing rate increases.

He promoted the idea of a “rates freeze” to keep the council’s rates collection at the same level as the previous year.

It’s possible some councillors disagreed with this approach and disagreed with Robertson’s outspoken commentary of the matter.

So the Mayor is campaigning for a rates freeze, and the six muppets on the Council with him have lodged a formal complaint against him for doing so.

How pathetic. They should be made to pay the cost of investogating their complaint.

And ratepayers should sack the six of them.

Stuff reports:

Treasury’s forecast for employment are unrealistically optimistic and would require bosses to hire 189,000 jobs in short order to get back to pre-crises levels of employment, economists say.

Evidence from the last financial crisis shows it actually takes many years to get unemployment back to pre-crisis levels — and the financial crisis was a much smaller shock than the one now facing the economy.

Infometrics economist Brad Olsen says the forecasts are wildly optimistic and don’t take into account vast structural changes going on in the economy, such as the end of international tourism. …

Olsen said during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) it took 14 quarters for employment numbers to fall back to pre-crisis levels. Treasury thinks unemployment rates can fall back to rough pre-crisis levels in just eight quarters, despite the Covid-19 shock being far more severe.

During the GFC, about 60,000 needed to be created to get the unemployment rate down. This time around, Treasury expects roughly 189,000 jobs to be found in a much shorter space of time.

Put like this, it seems very unlikely.

Stuff reports:

A nurse who was convicted of manslaughter after she fatally pushed her husband has had her nursing registration suspended for six months.

In a hearing in front of the Health Practitioners Disciplinary Tribunal in Dunedin, the tribunal considered whether the woman’s conviction reflected badly on her fitness to practice as a nurse.

The woman, who has interim name suppression, will have to undergo six monthly tests to monitor her alcohol consumption over three years, register any employment with the Nursing Council and give employers a copy of the decision.

Ms L had been convicted of manslaughter and sentenced to 11 months home detention. …

“A conviction for manslaughter is one of the most serious criminal offences and constitutes a significant departure from the standards reasonably expected of a registered nurse.”

She had 18 prior convictions, all but one of which occurred during their relationship.

So she has a drinking problem, she killed her husband while pissed and she had a total of 9 convictions and the Health Practitioners Disciplinary Tribunal thinks she is fine to carry on as a nurse after a six month stand down!

And they suppress her name so we have no idea if the nurse treating us is a convicted killer!

Stuff reports:

The Government is promising to pay workers who lose their jobs due to the coronavirus crisis more than double the unemployment benefit, in a newly announced $1.2 billion scheme.

The weekly “income relief” payments, set at $490 a week for full-time workers and $250 a week for part-time workers, will be given to workers instead of the unemployment benefit, if they lost their job due to Covid-19 after March 1. …

The untaxed payments are more than double that of the jobseeker benefit for a single person aged over 25-years, which are currently set at $250, after tax. 

The scheme is expected to cost $1.2b, but will save the Government $635 million in paying unemployment benefits, meaning an additional cost of $570m. The money will come from the Government’s Covid-19 response fund. 

The payment will be available to people who lost their job after March 1, and will be available until November. After 12-weeks, any unemployed workers will have to take the jobseeker benefit. 

It seems bizarre that someone made redundant on 28 February gets $250 a week and on 1 March or later gets double that.

But what this is about is preventing an backlash before the election. So they give an extra $600 million for 12 weeks to keep those made redundant happier.

The Greens and others will no doubt demand that everyone on the unemployment benefit be paid $500 a week.

Todd Muller has appointed his Shadow Cabinet. The front bench are:

1. Todd Muller
2. Nikki Kaye, Education, Sport
3. Amy Adams, Covid-19 Recovery
4. Judith Collins, Economic Development, Shadow Attorney-General
5. Paul Goldsmith, Finance
6. Gerry Brownlee, Foreign Affairs, Shadow House Leader
7. Michael Woodhouse, Health
8. Louise Upston, Social Development

So three out of the top four are female, and I dare anyone to say they’re not there on merit. I remind people the Government’s Top 8 includes Winston, Kelvin and Phil Twyford.

Great to see Amy Adams unretire. She was a great Minister for Communications and then Social Investment.

The big movers in terms of rankings are:

• Nicola Willis up from 45th to 14th
• Shane Reti from 28th to 17th
• Andrew Bayly from 32nd to 19th
• Lawrence Yule from 43rd to 30th

All well deserved promotions.

Stuff reports:

Stuff Ltd chief executive Sinead Boucher has bought the company from its Australian owners Nine Entertainment, ending months of speculation about a potential takeover.

The management buyout led by Boucher is understood to have been planned and executed very quickly, with the chief executive buying the company for a direct price of $1, and returning the company to New Zealand ownership. The sale is expected to be completed by May 31.

Boucher has signalled plans to develop an ownership model that would give staff a shareholding stake in the business.

That’s a great outcome and far better than NZME buying Stuff.

Having the CE and staff own the media company is a great model. It helps align interests.

Boucher started her career as a journalist for The Press, initially as a branch office reporter in North Canterbury, before shifting to London and working for the Financial Times and Reuters. As Stuff’s first digital editor, she was instrumental in growing the website into New Zealand’s largest digital brand. In 2012 she was awarded the Wolfson Fellowship, New Zealand journalism’s top individual prize.

After four years as executive editor, she was appointed Stuff chief executive in August 2017, succeeding Simon Tong.

I know Sinead a bit. Many years ago she had me come in and talk to staff on digital issues and opportunities. She has always been one of those in the industry who got the impact of the Internet early on, and I thought her appointment as CEO was a smart one. And even better now that she is owner also.

This sale doesn’t mean Stuff will be immune from job losses, but it does set itself up well to continue. With a $1 purchase price the focus will be on sustainability, not dividends, which is what is needed for now.

Todd Niall writes:

Auckland Council pulls in nearly $5 billion in revenue a year, so does it matter where $1000 of it goes?

In politics, to quote an old cliché, it’s not the money, it’s the principle. And this is about $1000 spent by Mayor Phil Goff’s office in the past year to boost the audience of his social media posts.

As the council beavers away behind closed doors on the most difficult budget in its decade of being, behaviour with ratepayers’ money takes on a new meaning.

I agree. One should lead by example with belt tightening.

Here, though, is the test that should be applied to the $1000 spent by the mayor’s office over the past year on boosting his social media posts – especially in these fiscally-challenged times.

Could the mayor look 11 average residential ratepayers in the eye and tell them that the extra they will pay this year, if a 3.5 per cent rate rise goes through, will be used to boost his own social media reach?

Political promotion should be on the “nice-to-have” list should the council find itself comfortably back in the black one day.

If you save a thousand here or there it starts to add up!

Act have announced an initial 49 candidates. Of course most will not get elected but on current polls it is very possible ACT would get between two and four MPs.

Their list ranking is at the end of June.