Damien Grant writes:

Few myths are as damaging, however, as that surrounding Franklin Roosevelt and his ‘New Deal’ of the 1930s. Most readers, guided by legend and popular wisdom, will believe that FDR’s big government programmes were responsible for ending the Great Depression. …

Hoover was quick to action, pushing large scale capital works and imposing step tariffs as unemployment reached eight million. This had little effect, so he increased government lending to favoured industries and banks, ran large budget deficits and doubled the debt to GDP ratio from 20 per cent to 40 per cent.

None of it worked and he was evicted from the White House in 1933 after a single term, in favour of Roosevelt.

The new president wasted no time in expanding Hoover’s programmes. The ‘New Deal’ wasn’t new; it merely continued the failed policies of the previous three years and achieved the same result.

By 1933, some four years after the stock market failure the US hit its economic nadir. Unemployment was at 23 per cent. Industrial output was barely half of what it had been and foreign trade was reduced by an appalling 70 per cent.

Roosevelt established a slew of new public works, building dams, roads and federal buildings. He poured new billions into propping up the banking system, introduced deposit insurance and dramatically expanded the federal social welfare net.

For a decade the US ran deficits, raised taxes and had the federal government intervening directly and indirectly into the country’s economic life to an unprecedented extent. Yet by 1939, unemployment remained at 15 per cent and many of those who had jobs were poorer than they had been a decade previously.

Six years on and the New Deal still had unemployment at 15%!

The counter to my argument would be that had it not been stimulus provided by both Hoover and Roosevelt, the economic pain would have been worse. This would be a fair response were it not for a similar shock nine years earlier, in 1920.

This occurred in the aftermath of the Great War and an economic contraction in response to the Spanish Flu. Some estimates have unemployment exceeding 10 per cent and prices falling by as much as 18 per cent. The Dow Jones was almost halved.

With the US economy still adjusting to peacetime production and struggling to accommodate millions of demobbed soldiers, the potential for economic ruin was great.

Yet, by what some economists unkindly refer to as a ‘stroke of good fortune’, President Woodrow Wilson was incapacitated. In response to the looming depression, Wilson did precisely nothing. His successor, Warren Harding, continued this hands-off approach. There was some unemployment relief, but the reaction by the federal government was muted.

The market, that great evil so demonised by contemporary commentators, was left to work out how to re-allocate resources, prices and labour.

Within 18 months the US had recovered and successfully absorbed millions of former troops.

So the best response is allowing the economy to expand in new areas, creating jobs, rather than huge amounts of government spending.

Stuff reported:

Most agree Māori Parliament seats should be kept

That was the headline but their own data contradicts that. Now it was an unscientific survey so doesn’t represent the views of all NZers but the headline should reflect their own data.

Here’s what the six main identity groups said on the Maori seats:

• NZ European Keep 34%, Abolish 39%
• Pakeha Keep Keep 70%, Abolish 12%
• New Zealander Keep 23%, Abolish 51%
• Maori Keep 71%, Abolish 19%
• Asian Keep 33%, Abolish 36%
• Pasifika Keep 60%, Abolish 20%

Now if you weight those results by the numbers in each group in the survey you get an overall result of Keep 35% and Abolish 39%.

Another interesting aspect of the survey was those who identify as Pakeha were less likely to want colonial statues to remain up as Maori themselves were. 41% of Maori want the statues to remain (34% to go) and only 28% of those who identify as Pakeha.

Stuff reports:

In questions from the floor Peters’ was asked if there are plans to have an even playing field for health care as the woman felt there is preference given to those injured rather than those with an illness.

While he wouldn’t divulge his full policy he did say, “there would be a full review of all the DHB’s and a full scale look at ACC”.

When asked what his stance was on 1080 he said that he was opposed to 1080 on the grounds that it has been banned everywhere else in the world because they know something we don’t know.

This is both factually wrong and misleading.

1080 (a brand name for sodium fluoroacetate) is not banned everywhere else in the world. It is used in a number of countries including Australia, the US, Israel, Japan and Equador.

Peters implies they know something about it that we don’t. This is wrong. NZ has done more research into 1080 than any other country.

The reasons 1080 is more widely used in NZ than most countries is because we have no native land mammals (apart from bats) and a huge number of destructive mammalian pests. So that makes it very suitable for NZ and unsuitable in countries with native land mammals. Nothing to do with them knowing something we don’t.

At the end of the day, it is just Peters desperately trying to win votes through ignorance.

In NZ we tend to think Australia has Covid-19 out of control, but in fact it is really only Victoria. In fact most Australian states and territories still have a lower infection rate than NZ.

So five states and territories have a lower infection rate than New Zealand.

Queensland has a large population than NZ and fewer cases and deaths.

This is not to say we shouldn’t be very happy with out stats. They are much better than the rest of the world. But most states in Australia have managed to get just as good a result.

Delighted to see Megan Hands win National’s nomination for Rangitata. I am confident she will retain the seat for National and become an MP in October.

Megan was elected to the Canterbury Regional Council (ECan) in 2019, topping the ward vote for Christchurch West as an Independent, beating incumbents and candidates on the Labour-aligned People’s Choice ticket. A remarkable achievement for someone from a rural area to win election in an urban ward.

Megan has a rural dairy farming background and has a Bachelor of Environmental Management and Planning. She has worked for LandPro as a planner, for Dairy NZ as an engagement leader and for AsureQuality on the M.Bovis response. Since 2017 she has been self-employed as a rural environmental consultant.

She is very focused on how the route to enhancing the environment is working with farmers, not demonising them.

Megan has also been a two time regional finalist in the FMG Young Farmer of the Year Contest.

I’m delighted she is going to be a National MP.

The Auckland Central selection for National is on Monday. Here’s a quick summary of the three candidates.

Nuwanthie Samarakone 

Nuwi was born in Sri Lanka. She had her early childhood in Scotland and moved to Auckland as a teenager. She has a degree in health sciences and after working in the public and private health sector set up her own consultancy firm which operates in six countries.

Rob Thomas

Rob is well known through his work in local government. He is a former Chair of the Auckland Youth Council and was elected to the Waitemata Local Board in 2010, 2013 and 2016. He’s been involved in numerous community projects. He stood unsuccessfully for the Auckland Council in 2016.

Emma Mellow

Emma had a tough time growing up. Her mother was a solo mum and died when Emma was 16. This very sad event led to Emma being incredibly determined and driven from a young age. Emma studied at Auckland University as well as the London School of Economics and the University of California. 

Emma has been working for almost a decade in communications and public relations. She’s worked on behalf of companies such as HP, Symantec, General Electric, Telstra and Mastercard and more recently had senior roles with Sydney Airport and ANZ Bank.

On Patreon I analyse what I see as the pros and cons of the three candidates.

The poll results for Northland show that not only isn’t it close, but Shane Jones is a distant third. Northland are showing they can’t be bribed.

I’m not surprised by the result. It has been my view for some time that Jones will come third and his previous electoral record shows this.

I imagine the impact of this poll is NZ First will get more desperate and start saying more outrageous stuff. But most people know it for what it is.

Interesting data from the Stuff/Massey survey. It’s self selecting so you can’t put much weight on the top line data but you can get something out of the difference between various groups.

Specifically I am interested in the differences between those who say they are NZ European, New Zealander and Pakeha. Technically all the same group in terms of ethnicity but which term you identify with reveals a lot.

• NZ Europeans are split fairly evenly between National and Labour (4% more say Labour)
• New Zealanders split to National by 15% over Labour
• Pakeha favour Labour by 36% over National
• Maori and Pasifika also favour Labour greatly while Asians slightly favour National
• Green support changes massively by self-identity. 17% of “Pakeha” say they vote Green while just 2.2% of “New Zealanders”
• Conversely ACT gets 11.5% of NZers and just 3.1% of Pakeha

The data isn’t surprising in that people who embrace Pakeha as a label tend to vote left and those who see themselves as a New Zealander rather than Pakeha or European tend to vote right, but having some numbers around it is useful.

National’s List for 2020 is:

1. Judith Collins 
2. Gerry Brownlee
3. Paul Goldsmith
4. Simon Bridges
5. Dr Shane Reti
6. Todd McClay
7. Chris Bishop
8. Todd Muller
9. Louise Upston
10. Scott Simpson
11. David Bennett
12. Michael Woodhouse
13. Nicola Willis
14. Jaqui Dean 
15. Mark Mitchell
16. Melissa Lee 
17. Andrew Bayly 
18. Dr Nick Smith
19. Maureen Pugh
20. Barbara Kuriger
21. Harete Hipango
22. Jonathan Young
23. Tim Macindoe
24. Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi
25. Paula Garcia
26. Nancy Lu
27. Parmjeet Parmar
28. Agnes Loheni 
29. Dale Stephens
30. Alfred Ngaro 
31. Matt Doocey
32. Stuart Smith
33. Lawrence Yule
34. Denise Lee
35. Simon O’Connor 
36. Brett Hudson
37. Simeon Brown
38. Ian McKelvie
39. Erica Stanford
40. Matt King
41. Chris Penk
42. Tim van de Molen
43. Dan Bidois
44. Jo Hayes
45. Katie Nimon
46. Catherine Chu
47. Hamish Campbell
48. David Patterson 
49. Lisa Whyte
50. Rima Nakhle
51. Liam Kernaghan 
52. Bala Beeram
53. Lincoln Platt
54. William Wood
55. Nuwi Samarakone
56. Mark Crofskey 
57. Jake Bezzant 
58. Mike Butterick 
59. Tim Costley
60. Nicola Grigg
61. Christopher Luxon
62. Joseph Mooney
63. Penny Simmonds
64. Tania Tapsell
66. TBC
67. TBC
68. Adrienne Pierce
69. Senthuran Arulanantham
70. Sang Cho
71. Rachel Afeaki-Taumoepeau
72. Trish Collett
73. Ava Neal
74. Katrina Bungard
75. Shelley Pilkington

The highest ranked new candidates are Nancy Lu at 26, Dale Stephens at 29, Katie Nimon at 45 and Catherine Chu at 46.

Newshub reports:

National leader Judith Collins has been forced to rule out working with New Zealand First again after former leader Simon Bridges put it back on the table. 

After ruling out working with New Zealand First when he was National leader, Bridges reopened the prospect during a foreign affairs debate in Wellington on Thursday night. 

Bridges, sitting between New Zealand First MP Fletcher Tabutaeu and ACT leader David Seymour, said, “Can I just make the peace between my two Cabinet colleagues in the next Government?”

It was a joke,

Tabuteau noted National’s change in position, “Oh, you will do a deal?”

“Oh, no, no sorry,” Bridges replied, bumping his head with his palm. 

Bridges said he’d be making a “quick call” to Collins to let her know what he said. But he didn’t make that call – Newshub told Collins on Friday. 

She laughed when asked if working with New Zealand First is back on the table.

“I think Fletcher’s probably signing up for the National Party, I think that’s what Simon’s meaning,” she said. “I think Simon was pulling your leg… we’re allowed to have jokes in the National Party.”

Collins confirmed, “There is no wish at all to deal with New Zealand First.”

What is significant is there are no more caucus meetings between now and the election. It was caucus that decided to rule out any potential post-election deal with NZ First. While it was always minisculely unlikely to be changed, it now can’t be.

This means that a vote for NZ First is a vote for Labour and the Greens to be in Government again.

To make it simple, here’s how it works:

• Vote National: National-led Government
• Vote ACT: National-led Government
• Vote Labour: Labour-led Government
• Vote Greens: Labour-led Government
• Vote NZ First: Labour-led Government

This graph is fascinating in looking at Biden’s poll gap compared to Clinton’s in 2016.

Clinton in 2016 started off well ahead of Trump but actually fell behind him for a brief period. She rebounded at the convention to a 7% lead but then declined to a 2% lead, rebounded to 7% and then in the final days dropped to a 4% lead in the polls (she won popular vote by 2%).

Biden’s lead has moved around a bit but been between 7% and 10%. The good news for Trump is that Clinton was also once 7% ahead, but Biden’s lead is far less volatile.

The conventions this year will have less impact as they are virtual. Probably fewer campaign rallies also. So the debates are likely to be the events that could most change things.

The Government promised 1,800 additional Police Officers in its first term. Well two months out from the election they are going to fall short by around one third.

Now I guess you can say falling short by one third is better than falling short by 95% as they have done in other areas, but it is still a huge miss.

As at 30 June 2020 there were 1,260 additional police officers compared to 30 September 2017. And 880 of those 1,260 extra were actually funded by National in the 2017 Budget so in fact they’ve only added on 380 beyond what was already planned, compared to their promise of 920 (on top of the 880) so either way they have fallen way short.

They know this of course, whis is why they started blatantly lying this year and pretending their promise was for new recruits rather than for increasing the overall numbers of officers.

Richard Harman at Politik reports:

There are concerns within New Zealand First that the Serious Fraud Office could derail the party’s election campaign.

The SFO investigation is a symptom, not a cause of problems.

In April the SFO’s Director, Julie Read, said the office was on track to complete its investigation into the New Zealand First Foundation and confirm whether any charges would be laid before election day. But Parliament rose yesterday and Writ Day, which is the formal regulatory start to the election campaign,  is only nine days away on August 16. Obviously were the office to announce any charges, even from now, would leave NZ First without a chance to defend itself but with a heavy smear hanging over it for the duration of the campaign. An SFO spokesperson has confirmed to POLITIK that Read’s April statement stands; that the office expects to make the announcements before the election.

The problem for NZ First is that from what I know of the facts (and they may be incomplete) laws have been broken – the only thing unsure is which laws. If the NZF Foundation is seen as part of NZ First then disclosure laws have been broken and if the NZF Foundation is not seen as part of NZ First then different disclosure laws have been broken.

Asked if he was contemplating trying to take any action against the Serious Fraud office, he said: “Let me just tell you, I’m contemplating going out there and doing extraordinarily well in this campaign.” His refusal to confirm or deny the possibility that he might take action lends weight to suggestions tons in Auckland legal circles that that that is precisely what NZ First might do; that they could injunct the Serious Fraud Office to prevent them from laying any charges before election day.

Well they could try to injunct the SFO. That would be most interesting.

Stuff reports:

A Christchurch councillor in trouble for his involvement in digging an unauthorised trench to sort a long-running flooding problem left a “please explain” meeting after 15 minutes.

James Daniels said when he realised how serious Christchurch City Council staff were taking the issue, he decided he needed a lawyer.

Staff were recording the meeting and talking about infringement and enforcement notices and possibly a prosecution, he said.

Daniels and fellow councillor Phil Mauger took vigilante action to resolve flooding on Pages Rd in the city’s east. Mauger commandeered a digger from his company, Maugers Contracting, and had a 70-metre-long trench dug on red zone land between Anzac Drive and Bexley Rd. The work fixed the flooding overnight, they said.

The council turned up a few days later and plugged the trench, stopping it from working.

Residents have complained about the flooding for 10 years. Water covers the Pages Rd footpath and forces pedestrians onto the busy road for weeks after it rains.

The pair said they had tried official channels to get the work done, but kept hitting brick walls. …

The pair have received an outpouring of support from their community.

If the Council prosecutes them, I’d say that would guarantee they are the highest polling candidates next election.

Labour promised 100,000 Kiwibuild houses in 10 years. They explicitly promised 6,000 would be done by 30 June 2020. They have managed 452, or 7.5% of their promise.

So they have under-delivered by 92.5%.

The scary thing is this isn’t even their worst failure!

Also one third of the Kiwibuild homes don’t even have a buyer for them. Only the Government could come up with a building programme in a time of housing shortage that can’t find buyers for a third of their homes!

National $4 billion transport package for Wellington and the Hutt is a superb mixture of needed investment in both roads and public transport. They have pledged funding for:

• A 2nd Mt Vic tunnel to commence construction by 2023 ($700m)
• A rapid transit (bus or tram) service between the airport, hospital and railway station ($2.2b)
• A 2nd Terrace tunnel ($400m) to start by 2029
• Underground SH1 through Te Aro ($1.1b)
• Petone to Grenada Link Road ($900m)
• Wellington Metro Rail Upgrade ($300m)
• Hutt Valley to Wellington walking and cycleway ($130m)

Also welcome news to ratepayers is that all the SH1 improvements will be fully funded by central Government, not ratepayers. This restores the usual formula that NZTA funds national roads and ratepayers funds local roads.

I also like National’s proposal to set up a dedicated transport agency for Wellington. The current split of duties between the local Councils, Regional Council and NZTA is not optimal.

CNN reports:

As Lebanon’s investigation into the devastating blast in Beirut continues, officials have pointed to a possible cause: A massive shipment of agricultural fertilizer that authorities say was stored in the port of Beirut without safety precautions for years — despite warnings by local officials.Documents newly reviewed by CNN reveal that a shipment of 2,750 metric tons of ammonium nitrate arrived in Beirut on a Russian-owned vessel in 2013. The ship, named the MV Rhosus, was destined for Mozambique — but stopped in Beirut due to financial difficulties that also created unrest with the ship’s Russian and Ukrainian crew.Once it arrived, the ship never left Beirut’s port, according Lebanon’s Director of Customs, Badri Daher, despite repeated warnings by him and others that the cargo was the equivalent of “a floating bomb.”

And sadly it turned into a bomb, with a blast felt 200 kms away. It was an entirely preventable disaster. That much explosive should have been secured away, not left for years at the port next to a shopping mall.

Those responsible should be prosecuted.

Iain Lees-Galloway in his valedictory said:

And finally—colleagues, hold on—our universal superannuation entitlement is unsustainable. People just live longer. It’s true, though, that abandoning universality or just increasing the age of entitlement are both likely to hit the people who need the most support the hardest. So here’s a thought. A means-tested entitlement from age 60 and a universal entitlement from age 70. 

A pity it took his valedictory for him to tell the truth about Superannuation. The age of 65 is clearly unsustainable and should move to 70.

Stuff reports:

A judge has admitted he is taking a risk in not sending a man with a history of reckless driving and driving at police back to jail for the same offence.

“It’s a huge risk, and I have to acknowledge that,” Judge Tony Greig said as he spared Dillan Mclellan in the New Plymouth District Court on Wednesday.

Mclellan was being sentenced for a reckless driving incident involving a police pursuit. It took place after his release from jail for the same offending committed in 2018.

“Somebody could have died in Mr Mclellan’s last set of offending, somebody could have died in this set of offending, and if he offends again somebody could die next time.”

However, Judge Greig said it was time to take a chance on the 22-year-old.

The Judge says Mclellan could well end up killing someone, yet gives him a get out of jail free card.