Stuff reports:

Forestry Minister Shane Jones is at loggerheads with a major forestry investment broker over a new forestry law.

Jones says it will help domestic sawmills, by reducing the number of raw logs sold overseas for processing.

But Roger Dickie, a broker for forestry investment, threatened to quit the New Zealand Institute of Forestry (NZIF), an industry group, after it expressed its support for Jones’s bill.

In an email to NZIF obtained by Stuff, Dickie said the bill was “unashamedly produced to enhance the so called Minister of Forestry’s electoral chances in Northland [sic]”. He described the bill as “political cronyism at its worst,” and believed it would damage the reputation as a relatively corruption-free country.

As far as I can see they are going to ban forestry companies from selling logs to the highest buyer, instead forcing to sell them to companies in areas such as Northland. So Dickie’s take seems right.

Audrey Young writes:

Labour has selected lawyer and board member Arena Williams as its candidate for Manurewa, a seat currently held by Louisa Wall.

Wall announced on Friday she would be withdrawing from the contested selection to seek a place on Labour’s list only after a negotiation with party president Claire Szabo.

No surprise as Williams is backed by Robertson. Williams (and her partner) are both former student union presidents.

Labour has also selected Barbara Edmonds to stand in Mana, a seat currently held by Labour’s Kris Faafoi who is going on the list only.

Edmonds is a specialist tax lawyer, and mother of eight. She has worked in the public and private sector in insurance and tax law and was seconded from Inland Revenue to work for ministers of revenue including Judith Collins.

Collins tweeted her congratulations to Edmonds on her selection. Edmonds is currently an adviser in Stuart Nash’s office.

Being a parent to eight kids and a specialist tax lawyer is impressive.

National selected sheep and beef farmer Mike Butterick as its Wairarapa candidate.

The seat is currently by Alistair Scott who is standing down at the September 19 election.

Butterick is the meat and wool chair of Wairarapa Federated Farmers and is part of the Wairarapa Primary Skills Leaders group.

If Butterick wins he’ll be the first sheep and beef farmer for a while. Scott and Creech had vineyards while Hayes and Beyer didn’t have agricultural backgrounds.

The Electoral Commission announced:

The Electoral Commission has released its decision on the allocation of funding to political parties for election advertising on radio, television and the internet for the 2020 General Election.

The funding (based on current seats, polls etc) is:

1. $1,285,182 – National
2. $1,202,267 – Labour
3. $310,931 – NZ First, Greens
4. $145,101 – ACT, Maori Party, TOP
5. $62,186 – Advance NZ, ALCP, New Conservative
6. $51,821 – Social Credit, Outdoors, Sustainable NZ, Vision NZ
7. $41,457 – five unregistered parties

Personally I think it is time for the taxpayer funded allocations to end. They are a hangover from the days when broadcasting was so powerful, parties were not allowed to purchase advertising space directly so they got given an allocation.

After 1,400 votes, the results are:

US

Trump 67%
Biden 33%

NZ

Muller 91%
Ardern 9%

Combined

• Trump/Muller 65%
• Trump/Ardern 2%
• Biden/Muller 26%
• Biden/Ardern 7%

Which outcome matters more

• Trump/Muller NZ 75% US 25%
• Trump/Ardern 2% NZ 54% US 46%
• Biden/Muller 26% NZ 72% US 28%
• Biden/Ardern 7% NZ 53% US 47%

Quite interesting. Those who want Muller to win say the outcome in NZ is more important by a 3:1 margin. Those who want Ardern to win are almost 50/50 split between whether NZ or US outcome is more important.

Audrey Young writes:

The Covid-19 crisis has already claimed one political scalp, Simon Bridges, but the management of the issue has also had an impact on the reputations on ministers and their departments, for the better and the worse.

The best of the Opposition MPs were National MPs Michael Woodhouse and Act leader David Seymour.

Each played to his strength on the Epidemic Response Committee which has just been shut down by the Government despite it being highly effective, or possibly because of it.

It was closed down because it was effective.

Her summary:

BEST PERFORMERS
• Jacinda Ardern – Prime Minister
• Grant Robertson – Finance Minister
• Chris Hipkins – Education Minister
• David Seymour – Act leader
• Michael Woodhouse – National health spokesman

WORST PERFORMERS
• David Clark
• Simon Bridges
• Kelvin Davis
• David Parker
• James Shaw

Too harsh on Bridges but otherwise fair.

Simon Wilson writes:

It ran down the public service, most obviously in health, where it spent less, as a proportion of GDP, every year from 2010.

This is a cherry picked statistic. Why does he say from 2010 not from 2008? I’ll explain.

First of all National increased health spending – in nominal terms, in real terms and in real per capita terms.

Nominal spending increased 44% from 2008 to 2017

Real spending increased 23% from 2008 to 2017

Real per capita spending increased 10% from 2008 to 2017

But what about this spending as a percentage of GDP. Well this statistic punishes you for having strong economic growth. Take 2016.

Real spending on health increased 3.7%. But GDP increased 5.2% so health spending as a percentage of GDP went from 6.15% to 6.06%.

Would you rather have a real increase of 3.7% in health and nominal GDP growth of 5.2% or a real increase of say 2% and GDP growth of 1%?

The reality is in 2010 NZ had a huge deficit. The way out of deficit is you grow the economy slightly faster than you grow spending. That is how we got debt down to cushion us now.

NZ has just gone into recession, this means that as GDP drops health spending as a % of GDP increases. But that isn’t good.

But let’s say we do want to focus on health spending as a % of GDP. Rather than cherry pick let’s take 2008 and 2017. In 2008 I calculate it was 5.98% and in 2017 5.91%. Basically the same.

The other issue of course is we should be focusing more on outcomes, not on expenditure. The reality is that cancer waiting times, ED waiting times, immunisation rates have all fallen under Labour despite extra funding.

Todd Muller has announced a very exciting new policy. It is basically to pay employers $10,000 for every new job they create.

The full speech by Todd Muller is here, and well worth reading.

The details are:

• Would run from 1 November 2020 to 31 March 2021
• An employer will get $10,000 for each additional new FTE they employ
• Capped at $100,000 per employer
• $5,000 will be paid upon hiring and $5,000 after 90 days
• Global cap of 50,000 jobs or $500 million
• Payments are tax free
• Paid out by IRD who will be able to check against payroll data that hires are additional

Also of interest in the speech are:

• Believes we should be in Level 1 now
• Will not increase taxes NZers pay
• Confirm policy allowing businesses to immediately expense assets up to $150,000
• Will regularly raise the minimum wage, but not in the middle of a recession
• Will keep 90 day trial periods

Many people have a strong interest in both NZ and US politics. So I’ve got a quick three question poll asking you who you want to win in each country but also which outcome matters the most to you, if you can only get one go your way. I’ll blog the results which should be interesting.

Feel free to comment below also with who your preferences are and which outcome is most important to you.

Star Trek has put out a new timeline based on this story in Stuff.

• 2112 – Jonathan Archer born
• 2151 – Star Trek: Enterprise launched
• 2226 – Michael Burnham born
• 2233 – James Tiberius Kirk born
• 2256 – Star Trek: Discovery
• 2266 – Star Trek: Original Series
• 2305 – Jean-Luc Picard born
• 2332 – Benjamin Sisko born
• 2336 – Kathryn Janeway born
• 2364 – Star Trek: The Next Generation
• 2369 – Star Trek: DS9
• 2371 – Star Trek: Voyager
• 2379 – Star Trek: Picard
• 2436 – Kiwibuild reaches its target of 100,000 houses
• 2540 – USS Enterprise-J commissioned

Stuff has a story on the leadership of Simon Bridges and I think it is pretty fair covering the highlights and lowlights. One extract:

But Bridges fought back brilliantly at a time the Government would usually take all the attention. Labour had been talking up its 2019 budget for yonks. It was a “Wellbeing Budget” — billed as a new way of doing Government finances — shifting the focus away from blunt metrics like GDP a more rounded view of spending in areas that improved peoples’ wellbeing. 

The Opposition usually disappears around budget time, left responding to huge announcements. Not so for the vaunted Wellbeing budget. A staffer spotted that bits of the budget were easily accessible using a search bar on the Treasury website. National used this vulnerability to glean vast amounts of secret budget information. 

Bridges sent the budget to the press gallery during the middle of the prime minister’s Tuesday morning caucus media run. The Government was flustered. Reporters read lines of the budget to Ardern from their phones.

The saga played out until National finally revealed how it had obtained the information. In the maelstrom, Treasury Secretary Gabriel Makhlouf embarrassed himself by alleging the breach was a “hack”.

That particular episode drove a wedge between the Treasury and the Finance Minister during a week which should have been a career highlight for both. It played to Bridges’ strengths: he leveraged a simple vulnerability in Treasury’s website into a massive hit on the Government’s biggest day of the year. 

National began polling well — very well. It bested Labour in every single One News/Colmar Brunton Poll between the hack and this week.

The 2019 polls reflected a good year for Bridges. In April, he faced down a challenge from Judith Collins, who had been making an unsubtle pitch for the leadership on and off for months. Bridges knew she didn’t have the numbers, and had no compunction telling her so. The challenge was put to bed before it even eventuated and the Bridges-Collins psychodrama began a twelve-month hiatus.

Bridges was helped by repeated Government mistakes. The year began with the utter collapse of Labour’s flagship housing policy KiwiBuild — it ended with the news that its cornerstone transport policy, light rail in Auckland, was on the rocks as well.

2020 — HUGE HIGH BEFORE CRUSHING FALL

2020 began looking even better for Bridges. The hype around Ardern’s Christchurch response had mostly faded. He was making fewer missteps in media appearances — no longer umming and ahhing when asked if he would consider lowering the minimum wage for example, or making jokes about the prime minister’s newborn child. The talk of challenges to his leadership were long gone, with Collins much quieter after having lost Twyford as an opponent.

In February, he made a bold call his caucus mostly agreed with: ruling out working with NZ First after the election. The public seemed to like this move and in two consecutive polls they finally supported his party and ACT to a degree where it could govern.

There were definitely things Simon got wrong, but there was also a hell of a lot he got right.

A reader writes in:

In recent days we’ve seen no new cases of Covid-19. 

The most recent new case was on the 22nd May and this was linked to a known cluster. 

The Ministry of Health (MoH) states ” The case is linked to the St Margaret’s cluster in Auckland and is a household contact of an earlier case.  Because of their connection to the earlier case, the person has been in isolation since the beginning of Level 4. “

Prior to this case, the next most recent case was on the 17th May and again was linked to a known cluster. 

Since the beginning of May there have been a total of 26 new cases, 3 of these have been from overseas travellers and 21 from known cases or clusters. The remaining two (1st and 2nd May) were of an unknown source (at the time of the media release) and were under investigation. 

New Zealand has had no cases that cannot be linked to known clusters and (from the media briefings) these cases were already isolation.

The typical incubation period of Covid-19 is described as two to fourteen days https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html given this it would be reasonable to expect that no transmissions are occurring within the community.

The above, would indicate that we have no community transmission and that any cases are being managed in association with known clusters.

Are our current restrictions now unnecessary? They are causing significant material hardship, large numbers of workers are being made redundant. 

People are increasingly stressed and worried based on the ongoing messagings from the Ministry and the Government for a risk that is negligible, as borne out by the statistics above. 

They key thing is indeed the level of community transmission. This is what triggered the lockdown, but as the reader points out, we’ve been almost a month without a single case of community transmission.

The number of confirmed Covid-19 deaths in the United States is now 102,107. This is the largest death toll in the world, but of course the US ia a very large country.

The top 10 for number of deaths is:

1. US 102,107
2. UK 37,640
3. Italy 33,702
4. France 28.596
5. Spain 27,118
6. Brazil 25,697
7. Belgium 9,364
8. Mexico 8,597
9. Germany 8,533
10. Iran 7,564

Deaths per capita is somewhat different. If we look at major countries death rates per million:

1. Belgium 808
2. Spain 580
3. UK 552
4. Italy 547
5. France 438
6. Sweden 418
7. Netherlands 343
8. Ireland 331
9. US 309
10. Switzerland 222

For the US the key thing will be whether the number of deaths declines, increases or plateaus. The average number of deaths in the last week has been around 1,000 and a fortnight ago was 1,500 and a month ago 2,000.

So if it keeps declining, then all good. Obviously bad if it increases again. But if it plateaus at 1,000 a day that would still mean another 100,000 dead by August and a total death toll of over 250,000 by the election.

Even though the death toll is not just because of the response of the Federal Government, I think it is fair to say that the higher the death toll, the more difficult re-election for Trump is. But what is hard to determine is what the point is when soft Trump voters will defect. Is it 150,000? Is it 200,000? Or doesn’t it matter at all?

Stuff reports:

The Government’s former flagship housing policy is so far behind schedule it will take more than 400 years to reach its initial target of 100,000 homes. It had hoped to reach the target in 10 years.

Initially, the Government had been hoping the rate of building would increase over time as KiwiBuild ramped up, with 1,000 homes built in the first year, 5,000 in the second, and 10,000 in the third, but the rate of building is slowing.

Each month in 2020 seeing tiny increases in the number of KiwiBuild homes built.

The number of KiwiBuild homes built to date stood at 393 at the end of March, equating to roughly 19 homes built each month since the scheme began in June 2018.

At that rate it would take 436 years to complete the remaining 99,607 houses that remain from the 100,000 target.

It must surely be the biggest Government failure of the last 50 years.

The timeframe for completion is so long that it’s fair to say the property market will be in a very different shape by the time the programme is finished. By way of comparison, 436 years ago, Queen Elizabeth I sat on the throne of England. William Shakespeare, though alive, had yet to have his first play performed. 

In terms of the property market, England had not yet begun its colonisation of the Americas, where vast tracts of land were taken through bloody colonisation, depressing the price of land. 

There’s no telling what similar changes are in store for land prices in the next 436 years. 

It’s conceivable that humans may have begun terraforming the surfaces of the Moon or Mars, freeing up land and depressing property prices. In that situation, it is unlikely to see governments of future centuries continuing with the KiwiBuild scheme. 

We have some idea of what will be happening in 2456. Three years earlier in 2453 the Federation launches the USS Enterprise NCC-1701-H. This Enterprise is commanded by Captain Joseph Vincent.

Adam Creighton, the economics editor at The Australian writes:

New Zealand’s economy is in strife. Without major change, our constitutional cousin is in decline. Its public finances are in tatters, its biggest export, tourism, has been obliterated — Air New Zealand announced 4000 job losses this week — and New Zealand police now can enter people’s homes without a warrant. …

In one year, New Zealand has blown 30 years of hard-fought ­fiscal rectitude. Its public debt will explode from the equivalent of 19 per cent of gross domestic product last year to 54 per cent by 2022, on the government’s own figures.

Scott said expanding the deficit, expected to blow out to 10 per cent this year, was the right thing to do. “But looking further out, comparisons with other countries, such as the US and UK, are no basis to justify our large debt ratios; we’re a small, open economy with vulnerable export industries,” he said, noting the share of exports in GDP had been falling steadily for nine years.

30 years of fiscal rectitude gone in a year!

The Prime Minister and Finance Minister, who have not worked in the private sector, spruik the totems of modern left governments — renewable energy, trees, higher tax, equality — but without much to show for it. Plans for a billion trees and 100,000 houses have come close to almost naught, and a capital-gains tax was dumped. Labour made a song and dance about reducing child poverty too, but on six out of nine measures tracked by Statistics New Zealand it is unchanged or worse since 2017, including the share of children living in “material hardship”, which has risen to 13.4 per cent.

They managed 0.3% of their 100,000 houses and 2.5% of their billion trees.

The nation’s draconian response to the coronavirus was questionable, given it is an island with a massive moat and a small population spread over an area the size of Italy. Despite those obvious advantages, the stringency of its lockdown was higher than practically any other country, according to Oxford University’s Blavatnik School of Government. Deaths per million were the same as Australia’s — just four.

In fact, slightly higher.

Ardern is more popular than ever, and by all accounts is a good person and a great communicator. But if a COVID-19 vaccine remains elusive, New Zealanders may come to question her wisdom as they fall further down the global pecking order. Without economic growth, there won’t be money for more ICU beds.

A good reminder that economic growth is what allows us to have a public health system.

You can now donate to Kiwiblog. Such donations are entirely voluntary of course, but many people indicated they are happy to contribute.

Radio NZ reports:

Tens of thousands in donors’ funds given to the New Zealand First Foundation were spent paying expenses, wages and bills for people closely associated with the New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

The foundation, which has bankrolled NZ First using secret donations from rich business people, spent more than $130,000 on a company run by Brian Henry – the personal lawyer and close friend of Peters.

So $130,000 is paid to a company run by Winston’s lawyer – Brian Henry. The same Brian Henry who is a trustee of the Foundation.

Jamie Henry, Brian Henry’s daughter, received $64,500 in wages and expenses, which included seven identical amounts, totalling $3010, referenced as “rent”. All those costs were paid by the foundation.

An amazing coincidence.

Peters’ partner Jan Trotman also received a payment from the foundation, according to records seen by RNZ.

On July 29 last year, the foundation paid Trotman $3450. The transaction is recorded as “Reimburse-Flt” in what appears to be a reimbursing payment for a flight.

RNZ asked Trotman why the foundation would pay for her air travel but she declined to comment.

She does not appear to have any official role with New Zealand First but has been involved in a business venture with Brian Henry and his son David.

Very strange as she is also eligible for free airfare as an MP’s spouse – unless the travel is for business.

Trotman is a director of New Zealand Future Forest Products (NZFFP), which applied unsuccessfully for a $15 million loan from the Provincial Growth Fund (PGF).

Brian Henry was also a director of NZFFP at the time of the PGF application but Company Office records show he resigned that position on February 19 this year.

Definitely nothing at all to see here.

The SFO will decide whether or not they think any laws have been broken. The other issue is why does NZ First have such a structure where non elected officials control the money from donations, the campaign spending and even the party’s database?

Stuff reports:

Māori and Pacifica waiting for elective surgery have been placed at the top of wait lists in the Wellington region.

Speaking at a Capital and Coast District Health Board meeting today, medical officer John Tait said the Ministry of Health bands people accepted for specialist treatment in a priority ranking.

People are given a score on their level of need and ability to benefit from treatment compared to other people.

“We’ve moved Māori and Pacifica to the top of the band,” he told the meeting.

This is a huge deal.

At present your eligibility for surgery is based on a score that takes into account your individual circumstances. How severe your condition is, how effective surgery might be, your age etc.

CCDHB has said that instead of relying on the actual clinical need, they will prioritise Maori and Pacifika which of course means European patients get demoted – even if they have a greater clinical need. They get punished for their skin colour basically.

The Government has introduced the Films, Videos, and Publications Classification (Urgent Interim Classification of Publications and Prevention of Online Harm) Amendment Bill.

Much of the bill is laudable and worthwhile. But one aspect is repugnant and should be resisted at all costs. It is this part:

The Bill facilitates the establishment of a government-backed (either mandatory or voluntary) web filter if one is desired in the future. It provides the Government with explicit statutory authority to explore and implement such mechanisms through regulations, following consultation.

There is already a voluntary web filter for content such as child pornography. It is used by ISPs covering the vast majority of NZ Internet users including 2 Degrees, Spark and Vodafone.

So there is no need to have a law change for a voluntary filter. The law change is for a compulsory filter.

And if the Government manages to introduce a compulsory filter, I can guarantee it won’t stop at objectionable material.

Over a dozen agencies will queue up demanding it be expanded so they also get the power to block websites. Crown Law will want to block overseas newspapers that break NZ suppression laws. MBIE will want to block any sites Hollywood studios complain about. The Police will want to block websites. The Ministry of Health will want to block websites.

Once you have a compulsory Government filter, it only gets bigger. This bill should be resisted strongly and I hope the Greens live up the work done by Nandor Tanczos and Gareth Hughes who have always been on the side of Internet freedom, and oppose this bill.

Stuff reports:

The ACT Party is calling for a Royal Commission into the Government’s Covid-19 response.

Leader David Seymour said a Commission should look at the rules set by the Government, if they were appropriately balanced and if the Government acted in accordance with the rule of law.

He said it could also consider looking at whether New Zealand’s borders should have been closed earlier; examine the pandemic plan and PPE issues and if the Government had adequate testing to provide data for decision-making.

“There is recent precedent. The Royal Commission into the Canterbury earthquakes was established in April 2011, two months after the February earthquake. The Royal Commission into the Christchurch terrorist attacks was set up the month after the attacks,” he said.

It is unthinkable that there would not be a Royal Commission into our response to Covid-19. It dwarfs all these other events.

“A Royal Commission into the Covid-19 response should report back prior to April 2021.”

He wanted to see an independent Royal Commission investigate the response before next year’s flu season.

“Covid-19 may return next year and we can’t afford to shut down the economy again. Being unprepared for the first major pandemic in 100 years may be understandable, but repeating our mistakes if it comes back next year is totally unacceptable.”

Crisis thinking was very different from honest reflection on what could have done better and he called for “open, honest debate”.

He believed the Commission would need international guidance because too many players were invested in the Government’s response.

I think April 2021 may be too ambitious. But I do think the RC should look at responses around the world and see how our response could be improved.