They agree on some ratings and disagree on others. The big difference in how they rate seem to be on whether or not the Cr is a Goff Loyalist (known as Team A) or a Goff critic (Team B).
Orsman rates Team A slightly higher on average with 6.2 vs 5.6 for Team B.
Wilson has a far greater difference. He rates Team A more highly at 6.8 and rates Team B a lowly 4.1.
But the average of their scores is probably a reasonable reflection. So what is the average score per Cr, and who is top and bottom.
8/10 – Daniel Newman
7.5/10 – Chris Darby, Desley Simpson
7.0/10 – Phil Goff, Cathy Casey, John Watson
6.75/10 – Richard Hills
6.5/10 – Bill Cashmore, Ross Clow
6/10 – Jo Bartley, Alf Filipaina
5.5/10 – Efoso Collins
5/10 – Linda Cooper
4/10 – Chris Fletcher, Mike Lee, Wayne Walker
3/10 – Greg Sayers, Sharon Stewart, Paul Young
Those in bold are where both journalists gave them the same score. So they both agreed Newman is the most effective Councillor.
UPDATE: Worth pointing out that while the journalists might rank Greg Sayers lowly, the locals in Rodney seem to have a far higher view of him as he is running unopposed.
The UFB fibre to the premises project has two and a half years to go before completion, and you’d have to be very churlish to declare it anything else than a success. Apart from the occasional installation wobble, you rarely hear anything else than “yeah, we’ve got UFB” if you ask about someone’s broadband installation. Which is exactly how it should be, broadband that Just Works so that you don’t have to waste time and life over it.
Yep it has been very successful, and considering how much could go wrong, it is a tribute to those involved that it has delivered so well.
The local fibre companies were asked to take a leap of faith. Would people switch from copper broadband, and in enough numbers to bring a return on their share of the UFB investment? Were they rolling out hot new broadband tech or dropping millions on a giant, government driven white elephant that most people wouldn’t care about?
There were those who claimed it would be a white elephant as there was no need for fibre type speeds. They also claimed that mobile technology would be as good or better.
But the demand for fibre has been huge.
Australia took a different, more complex path with its NBN for political reasons and switched away from a pure fibre network. They are now literally paying the price. Across the ditch, the cost per premise to deploy the multi-technology mix NBN which can use copper, cable, wireless and in some places, fibre broadband has gone up to A$3100 ($3288) this year and the government has had to top up the network build funding with tens of billions of dollars.
The latest cost estimate is A$51 billion for an inferior product to what NZ did for NZ$1.5 billion (actually around half that from a pure investment basis).
Despite the higher cost, Aussie NBN customers receive pretty sad broadband service. Telstra for example advertises 20 to 40 megabit/s minimum NBN plans for up to A$90 a month. For the same amount or a little more, UFB customers can get 900/400 Mbps fibre connections. I can also tell you that Aussies hate to hear that comparison, and that there’s 10 gigabit/s UFB on trial currently.
I think the fibre initiative is the best infrastructure project in recent history.
the reluctance or refusal to vaccinate despite the availability of vaccines – is now considered one of the top ten threats to global health. This doesn’t just mean active anti-vaxxers. It means parents who aren’t sure. It means those who delay vaccination, because it seems like the easier decision.
This is timely with the growing number of measles cases in NZ. And let’s look at the change in vaccination rates in the last ten years.
So from the year ending 30 June 2009 to year ending 30 June 2017 the 24 month vaccination rates increased from 80% to 93% for all children and from 73% to 93% for Maori children.
This didn’t happen by accident. The last National Government made lifting vaccination rates both a national health target but also one of the 10 all of Government Better Public Services targets.
Committing yourself in public to an actual measurable outcome (not just spend more money and hope) is risky. It is a public failure if you don’t get an improvement. But they worked for almost all targets. With leadership from the Government, the public health staff responded to the target and got a huge improvement. In fact in 2017 the Maori vaccination rate (historically low) was slightly higher than the overall rate.
But what happened when the Government changed. The Government first scrapped all the Better Public Services targets. They didn’t want to commit to anything measurable. But even worse they also scrapped all the health targets. They promised that they’d come up with some new targets, but two years later they haven’t.
And what has happened to vaccination rates in the two years since Labour scrapped the targets? The overall rate has dropped 2.4% and the Maori vaccination rate has dropped 7.1%.
It is easy to blame anti-vaxxers and the like. And we should blame them. But we should also blame the Government for abolishing the health targets around vaccinations and the BPS target. These were tools with a proven record of success and they dumped them because they didn’t want the accountability.
UPDATE: A few people on Twitter are claiming that Labour didn’t abolish the immunisation health target as there is still an MOH page collating data for it.
The reality is that Labour did announce they were dropping the health targets when they became Government. Then facing an outcry, they said they’ll come up with some new and better health targets. Two years later they have been unable to come up with a single one.
In the interim yes the MOH still collates data on the old health targets but that is all they do. They are not published in newspapers as they used to be. The Minister doesn’t follow up with DHBs that are under performing. They are no longer the first item on every DHB’s agenda. The DHBs know that there is no longer a political price to pay for not meeting the targets.
Some have also claimed that there have been measles outbreaks around the world, so it is not just a NZ problem. Well firstly I never mentioned measles in my post. I’m talking all immunisations. And we had a clear trend where the rate increased and it is now decreasing.
The fact NZ managed such a huge increase in the vaccination rate shows that leadership can make a difference. It can’t get you to 100% as there is always a hard core you can’t reach, but DHBs do respond to incentives and the Government setting a small number of clear targets does work – or at least it used to.
The Government intends exempting itself from the new workplace safety laws and mining regulations put in place following the Pike River Mine tragedy. This is ironically to enable their re-entry project. Politics is over-riding common sense.
Yep they are going to waive the very law put in to stop another Pike River.
It specifically criticised the single means of exit. Our Government implemented its recommendations with a new Health and Safety at Work Act (2015), new mining regulations and the new agency, WorkSafe NZ. These new laws rightly now require two means of exit from a mine and better ventilation.
Common sense – a single exit makes you so much more vulnerable.
A comprehensive 800-page report in 2015 concluded recovery of the men could not be done within the new safety laws.
The single exit issue was a significant factor in why Solid Energy Board resolved it couldn’t be done lawfully.
The reality is there will not be two exits. The explanation that it is not required because the Pike River Mine already has approval dating back to 2008 defies belief. This approval was deficient and was harshly criticised by the Royal Commission. The exemption is being sought because the ventilation in the mine does not meet the new regulations.
Yep the Government is relying on a 2008 approval, dating back to before the mine exploded!
This mine blew up because commercial pressures to produce coal saw safety rules compromised. We risk a repeat under political pressure. If the regulations are too rigid, revise them. We should not make exemptions. We would not do so for a new coal mine.
There shouldn’t be one law for Pike River and one for all other mines. Safety should be the same everywhere.
We need to call time on this charade. The men are not going to be recovered. There is not going to be any significant new evidence that changes the key conclusions. We need to heed the Royal Commission’s concluding message that the best tribute we can pay to the 29 lost men is to ensure the tough new workplace safety laws put in place in response to the tragedy are respected.
Instead the Government is pushing ahead just because it wants a photo opportunity.
I’m sure many readers recall the decades of claims that the world is about run out of oil, so hence we must stop using oil because we are at or close to peak oil, and soon production will diminish.
Yep the US alone is now producing over 12 million barrels a day. Almost all the experts were certain the production would keep declining, and they were wrong.
Never underestimate the difference technology can make.
After Winston chose Labour in 2017, Simon Wilson shared his dream of how wonderful New Zealand would change because of this. Let’s look at his dream and see how it is going:
I’m looking forward to all the interthings – the intergenerations and genders and ethnicities and urban/provincialities and all the rest – that the combined party leaderships of the new government represent, because our government suddenly looks a lot more like all of us.
The Cabinet has less women than the previous National Cabinet and the front bench is more white than National’s.
I’m looking forward to climate change being taken seriously
The Government says emissions will rise under this Government for the next few years and they have just declined a hydro dam.
I’m looking forward to a proper commitment to building tens of thousands of affordable houses in Auckland
LOL. They’ve managed around 50 or so.
And I’m looking forward to watching Winston make the most of his wise old years in parliament, because I’ve seen nothing in the last few weeks to suggest he won’t
Keep sipping the kool aid.
I’m looking forward to having a decent minister of health and to the day when we really have abolished rheumatic fever, and to the day the staff at our emergency departments don’t feel driven in their desperation to put out “full up” signs.
The reality is ED waiting times have got much longer (and the Government no longer even publishes them). Clark is widely seen as underwhelming as Minister and the number of children with rheumatic fever increased in 2018.
I’m looking forward to the day when mental health services are not in crisis and we do not have the most appalling rates of suicide.
Also sadly gone up.
It looks like Simon’s dream remains very much a dream.
I regret to inform my regular detractors I have not been axed and nor was I about to be, at least as far as I am aware. I know they would have enjoyed that. However, the fact is I am simply tired and I need time to recharge the batteries. …
And while I have loved, and continue to love, writing this column, I have been missing rather too much of life lately. Writing takes time. And unless you are lucky and good enough to be able to pay all the bills doing it, the demands of a regular deadline push and pull against the claims of career, health and family. It is often the last of these that suffers most. My boys are growing up way too fast. I need a few weekends bouncing on the tramp with them instead of sitting at a desk wondering just what to make of the associate transport minister refusing to release a letter sent to the transport minister. I need some time where, when I am begged to come along to the pool on a Sunday afternoon, I can unhesitatingly say yes.
A great call putting family time first. I tend to write my blogs in advance now so that I actually have time during the day and weekends for kicking around a soccer ball with Benjamin.
It is no secret that the ranks of the mainstream media are dominated by liberals in their various Left-wing, centrist and, occasionally, Right-wing forms. Which is not to say that journalists as a whole strive for anything less than fair and objective coverage – which is something I have come to appreciate through dealing with various editors and reporters over the years. But it has always frustrated me is that, where space is allowed for the non-liberal view, it usually seems that the angriest, least reasonable voices dominate. Lately, for example, broadcasters have been giving an awful lot of time to spokespeople for the so-called New Conservative Party. This fringe organisation received just 6253 votes at the last election. It has no real prospect of breaking into Parliament. By contrast, the Opportunities Party won more than 10 times as many votes. How often are its people interviewed on TV?
Liam was a very rare moderate voice.
Somewhere between 30 to 40 per cent of New Zealanders are conservative in their disposition. They are not, as a rule, bigots, know-nothings or uncompromising libertarians. When their more measured views are not properly and credibly articulated in the business of news, liberals let themselves off the hook.
Maybe Stuff will hire someone of similiar ilk to replace Liam?
Medical officers of health from our three biggest cities have called for urgent, meaningful action by the Government to address our shameful drinking culture. Laws were introduced in 2012 to reduce harm, but doctors say the legislation has largely been a failure. They say the liquor industry is blocking attempts by councils to limit the number of places where alcohol is sold, and the times it can be sold.
The liquor industry is blocking nothing. The courts are finding that local authorities are breaking the law in their decision making, because they are not basing their decisions on evidence.
The activists hate this. They don’t think the decisions should be based on evidence.
“Every time you are trying to put forward a public health argument, the lawyers are looking at the detail and trying to shoot that down,” says Dr Stephen Palmer, Wellington Medical Officer of Health.
Detail is another word for evidence.
What the activists don’t like is that any decision to impose restrictions must be based on evidence.
The latest political security breach has convinced Kerre McIvor that this Government doesn’t know what it’s doing. …
She also took aim at Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern for her refusal to answer questions. “I don’t get the sense she’s across her job.” “You would think even she could set the agenda and put it to him and get the people to brief you. Just one solid answer would be fantastic. “You’re in charge of the country, act like it!” McIvor says that Labour probably didn’t expect to be in Government after the last election, but that was 18 months ago and they should be up and running now. “I get the sense that they are still trying to get their heads around the job, but this is their job. This is what they have been training all their lives to do – be the Government – and they aren’t doing a very good job of it.”
Reserve Bank governor Adrian Orr aimed another shot at the big four Australian-owned banks, warning that none of them were too big to fail. “There’s always been a concept: too big to close,” Orr said. “[But] Nothing’s too big to fail”.
Now that quote by itself is fine. He is saying that you shouldn’t assume the Government would intervene if a major bank was at risk of failing, just because it is “big”.
But then he goes on to say:
Orr also warned that if one of the big four banks were to close, it would bring the other three down with it.
This is what is bizarre. He is basically saying that the Government would let all four major banks fail and go under.
The reality is this would send so many hundreds of thousands of families into poverty that of course it would never be allowed.
You can imagine a situation where one solitary bank was allowed to fail, but not all four major banks.
Recent criticism of the Coalition Government is leading to the suggestion we should return to First Past the Post (FPP) and abandon Mixed Member Proportional (MMP). But this is not a binary alternative scenario. May I suggest we should consider something else – Supplementary Member (SM)?
This would be a balance between MMP and FPP but avoid the extremes of both. There would be a stable government but smaller parties would have a voice and presence. It would reduce the horse trading between parties, and the gifting of seats would be unnecessary. The effective threshold for a list seat would be 2%.
We could go to Supplementary Member, as used in Japan and much of Europe. Under this system, parties get electorate seats as they win them. Then they get list seats in proportion to their party vote, but, unlike MMP, the list seats are not combined with the electorate seats to determine the outcome. So if the Banana Party got 10% of the vote they would get 10% of the list seats, so 10% 0f 49 giving them 5 seats plus any electorate seats. Currently they would get 10% of the 120 total seats, so 12 seats, which includes any electorate seats they already have.
How would the last election have looked had we used SM rather than MMP? There were 49 list seats. National got 41 electorate seats and 44% of the List Vote, so would have had 66 seats instead of the 56 under MMP. So putting the results all together (actual results in brackets): National 66 (56) Labour 48 (46) NZ 1st 4 (9) Greens 3 (8) ACT 1 (1) TOP 1 (0)
So Labour, plus NZ 1st plus Greens would be 55 (perhaps 56 with TOP joining them). Winston Peters would not hold the power he now does
I think this would lead to better outcomes and governance. Small parties would still be in parliament, and still have a voice. It would also elevate the importance of electorate MPs. The Party vote would not be the more important vote, and List Only parties would suffer, appropriately in my view.
It is (to me anyway) interesting to consider what an SM outcome would have been in earlier elections (again with the actual results in brackets.)
2008 – Election of Key National Government National 65 (58) Labour 39 (43) Greens 4 (9) ACT 3 (5) Maori 7 (5) Progressive 1 (1) United Future 1 (1) NZ 1st 2 (0)
1999 – Election of Clark Labour Government Labour 61 (49) National 38 (39) ACT 6 (9) Green 4 (6) Alliance 7 (10) United 1 (1) Christ. Heritage 1 (0) NZ 1st 3 (5)
1996 – First MMP Election National 48 (44) Labour 41 (37) NZ 1st 13 (17) Alliance 6 (13) Christ Coal 2 (0) ACT 4 (8) United 1 (1)
If we look back further and assume that an SM Election was held adding one third of seats as list seats, it also shows the value of SM in keeping a measure of control over the main parties but allowing them to govern without being too beholden to others.
1990 – Election of Bolger National Government (Notional 49 List Seats) National 81 (67) Labour 47 (29) Greens 4 (0) New Labour 3 (1)
1984 – Election of Lange Labour Government (Notional 48 List Seats) Labour 78 (56) National 55 (37) Social Credit 5 (2) NZ Party 5 (2)
1981 – Peak of Social Credit Support (Notional 46 List Seats) National 65 (47) Labour 51 (43) Social Credit 10 (2)
1975 – Election of Muldoon National Government (Notional 43 List Seats) National 75 (55) Labour 49 (32) Social Credit 4 (0) Values 2 (0)
1972 – Election Of Kirk Labour Government (43 Notional List Seats) Labour 75 (55) National 50 (32) Social Credit 2 (0) Values 1 (0)
These results all presuppose people would have voted the same way under a different system – I accept that this has to be a supposition.
MMP proponents call SM “MMP light”. They are correct. SM would be a better system for NZ. We do not have to go back to FFP.
I would advocate that if we stay with 120 MPs, 80 would be electorate and 40 would be list seats. Any increase in MP numbers would follow a 2/3 electorate and 1/3 list pattern. Recent calls for 150 MPS would result in 100 electorates and 50 list MPs.
I would make a few other changes as well. NZ Citizens only can vote, not permanent residents who are not citizens (anyone on the Electoral Roll at the time of this change could remain on the roll and vote but going forward only NZ Citizens could join the Roll). Voting basically only on the day, not in the couple of weeks leading up to the election (allowing Special Votes for the sick, travellers etc. as in the past).
As for the Maori Electorates, another topic for another day.
A 20-megawatt hydro scheme on the West Coast has been blocked by Environment Minister David Parker due to its impact on the pristine and outstanding nature of the Morgan Gorge. The $100 million development, proposed by Greymouth-based Westpower, had the support of the Department of Conservation, which spent more than two years working with the company on its proposal. In September 2016 the department recommended the granting of a 49-year concession, leases and easements for the development which would draw water from above the Morgan Gorge in the Waitaha River, through a 1.5-kilometre tunnel, into a power station and back into the river downstream.
This just shows that the Government doesn’t believe its own rhetoric on climate change. The PM says this is the most critical issue of our times, and that we must reduce our emissions to zero. But then they turn down a renewable energy project, despite the Department of Conservation recommending it proceed.
Every hydro project changes the environment that was there before a dam was built. But the post dam environment can be equally beautiful as we see often in the South Island.
Westpower believed the run-of-river scheme could deliver about 120 GWh of power annually – enough to meet almost a quarter of the region’s demand. The proposal, along with the 7.6 MW Amethyst hydro plant the company commissioned on DoC land at Hari Hari in 2013, was developed to improve security of supply in southern Westland, particularly in the event of a transmission failure into the region. Backers included Te Runanga o Ngati Waewae and Te Runanga o Makaawhio. The West Coast Tai Poutini Conservation Board also had no objection to the scheme. But the project was the subject of a concerted campaign by the kayaking community and other environmental groups, including Sage’s Green Party. They argued there was no justification for additional power generation on the West Coast and that the Morgan Gorge warranted special protection from development, even though only expert kayakers can use it in its natural state.
So the Green Party thinks it is more important expert kayakers have an place to kayak, than New Zealand moves to renewable energy. God they’re such hypocrites.
They demand that petrol cars be banned and replaced with electric cars, yet they campaign against almost every renewable energy proposal proposed to actually generate the electricity needed in the future.
Westpower chairman Mike Newcombe said the company is “utterly stunned” by the rejection.
“We put up a proposal that ticks all the boxes: renewable, sustainable energy, long-term regional economic development boost, careful environmental stewardship – and yet it was declined. It is an alarming decision not just for the coast but for regional New Zealand,” he said in a statement. “We will be carefully reviewing the detail of the decision,” he said. “It makes no sense – not least because of the government’s stated intention to be 100 per cent renewable in energy by 2035 – 15 years – and its commitment to climate change.”
This shows it is a slogan for the Government, not something they have any intention of achieving. That would require making actual hard decisions.
A white supremacist who shared the Christchurch mosque shooting video, and had it modified to include crosshairs and “kill count”, has lost an appeal against his 21-month jail sentence. Philip Neville Arps, 44, went to the High Court to argue that his sentence was “manifestly excessive”. However, in a new decision released today, Justice Rachel Dunningham agreed with the District Court judge’s “appropriate and justified” decision. Arps, who compares himself to Adolf Hitler’s deputy Rudolf Hess and owns a white supremacist-themed Christchurch insulation company was jailed in June after admitting two charges of distributing objectionable publication after the March 15 massacres.
I’m glad the sentence held up.
Arps is a good example of the limits of free speech.
His reaction to the murder of 51 innocent men, women and children by a terrorist was to celebrate it, and to ask for the video of the killings to be circulated with a kill count on it.
The Government considered and rejected banning the import of fossil fuel vehicles from 2035 onward, new documents show, despite the Ministry of Transport supporting the move. The Ministry of Transport found that banning the import of fossil fuel vehicles by 2035 would have a net $2.26 billion benefit, but the Government decided against it. Instead, we have the feebate scheme. Now, environmental activists say the Government should have gone ahead with the move, which would have averted 27 million tonnes of CO2 emissions between 2021 and 2050, according to Transport’s own preliminary cost-benefit analysis.
Compulsory horse and buggies would reduce it even more.
A judge has ordered that prisoner’s “cultural identification” be officially changed from Pākehā to Samoan as he begins a four-year jail term. The criminal justice system’s records for James Anthony Finn, 29, will be changed after Christchurch District Court Judge Jane Farish referred to the system’s “colour-blindness” at his sentencing on 27 drugs and stolen property charges. Finn appears to be Pākehā, and is recorded that way in the system, but he had a strong link back to Samoan culture because of his family background. A cultural report was prepared ahead of his sentencing, which acknowledged his background. Finn found it strange and uncomfortable to be identified as Pākehā, Judge Farish said.
The cultural report also led to an additional reduction in his sentence, after his guilty pleas to all charges in June.
So he got his culture changed from Pakeha and that led to a reduction in his sentence.
I can see this catching on.
UPDATE: I’m informed that the full report from the sentencing doesn’t have his sentence reduction linked to his culture, so the two issues were seperate.
Overall business confidence as measured by ANZ’s Business Outlook Survey has plunged to its lowest level since April 2008. The ANZ economists have summed it up neatly with their headline for the latest release, which simply says: “Business confidence: Nothing good to say about it” And there isn’t. An already weakening NZ dollar weakened further after the release of the survey results at 1pm on Thursday, falling to US63.2c. In the survey, the so-called ‘headline’ business confidence fell another 8 points to -52% in the August ANZ Business Outlook, the lowest since April 2008. Remember, in 2008 we were getting into the middle of the Global Financial Crisis. Firms’ expectations for their own activity over the year ahead fell 6 points to -1, the lowest read since April 2009.
The more important data point is firms’ expectations for their own activities.
Employment intentions fell 3 points to a net 9% of firms intending to reduce employment, the lowest since mid-2009. Investment intentions fell 4 points to -4. Capacity utilisation lifted 3 points off July’s decade low.
Boris Johnson has briefed Cabinet colleagues that the government will “bring forward an ambitious new legislative programme for MPs’ approval”, and that the current parliamentary session will be brought to an end. He has spoken to the Queen to request an end to the current parliamentary session in the second sitting week in September. Following the conclusion of the traditional party conference season, the second session of this Parliament will commence with a Queen’s Speech on Monday 14 October. “A central feature of the legislative programme will be the Government’s number one legislative priority – if a new deal is forthcoming at European Council – to introduce a Withdrawal Agreement Bill and move at pace to secure its passage before 31 October.”
The opponents of Brexit are going beserk and calling it undemocratic, and they may even get the numbers to no confidence the Government. But a former Director of Comms to David Cameron has pointed out this is a potential win/win for Boris:
I suspect Number 10 believes it has created a win win scenario with this explosive announcement. Yes – and they get Brexit by October 31st; No – and they get to fight a ‘people versus parliament’ general election.
No. As Downing Street is pointing out, all this means is that three days of Parliamentary sittings will be lost in the week after the party conferences. Let me just repeat that – three days 8, 9 and 10 of October.
He also points out:
It is not unusual. Up until the last two years, Parliament has been prorogued each year in advance of a Queen’s Speech. This session of Parliament has lasted nearly two and a half years, the longest, so Sky News has just reported, since the English Civil War. So we are long overdue a Queen’s Speech, and quite understandably a new prime minister, and effectively a new government, wants to set out its new legislative agenda.
So the remoaners are making a fuss about something that is very normal.
