David Cormack writes:

In the lead-up to the 2017 election there were two major policies of Labour’s that people seemed really enthusiastic about; KiwiBuild and the new rail system to go in Auckland. Twyford, for reasons that are now entirely unclear, was given responsibility for both. Boundless enthusiasm, confidence and some might say smugness poured forth as he promised the country 100,000 houses over 10 years and light rail up Dominion Road in Auckland by the time APEC rolled around in 2021.
So far he’s managed to make a complete hash of both.

It takes special talent to stuff up both projects.

While the Government continues to deny it solicited a proposal from the Super Fund for the light rail contract, there was engagement between Twyford and the Super Fund prior to the announcement of the bid. The fact that Twyford worked with Sir Brian Roche engaging with the Super Fund and then installed Sir Brian as Chair of NZTA is also a huge misjudgment. And the fact that not only will the light rail system not be ready in time for APEC it’s likely it won’t even have been started, is the final misstep that means Twyford just has to go.

In two years they haven’t even decided on a route or a mode.

Twyford’s inability to deliver on the two big promises he was tasked with really leaves the Prime Minister with no option but to remove him from any meaningful portfolio, or out of Cabinet completely. He is single-handedly hurting Labour’s brand as we head into the last 12 months of this Government before we go to election.

I predict there is no chance that Ardern will remove Twyford from Cabinet. If she started to remove Ministers for incompetence, then Cabinet might get rather small.

Newsweek reports:

The United States military has conducted a special operations raid targeting one of its most high-value targets, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the leader of the Islamic State militant group (ISIS), Newsweek has learned. President Donald Trump approved the mission nearly a week before it took place.

A U.S. Army official briefed on the results of the operation told Newsweek that Baghdadi was killed in the raid, and the Defense Department told the White House they have “high confidence” that the high-value target killed was Baghdadi, but further verification is pending DNA and biometric testing. The senior Pentagon official said there was a brief firefight when U.S. forces entered the compound in Idlib’s Barisha village and that Baghdadi then killed himself by detonating a suicide vest. Family members were present. According to Pentagon sources, no children were harmed in the raid but two Baghdadi wives were killed after detonating their own explosive vests.

A fitting end to them. It seems like a highly successful mission with no US casualties and the ISIS leader dead. Always a risk approving such a mission, but one which paid off so credit to everyone from the President down to those in the raid.

ISIS has lost all its territory but still remained a significant threat. This won’t be the end of ISIS, but it is a big blow to them as Baghdadi was the driving force behind them.

Stuff reports:

List, 47, says he wants to wait for the outcome of two party reports into the sex assault scandal before passing judgement.​ …

But he does say alcohol should be banned from all party events. “It’s not supposed to be a party.
“I don’t see why political events need to have alcohol.
“I know that sounds a little bit puritanical. But a lot of my experiences around the Beehive involved alcohol and New Zealand has got a drinking problem anyway.”

Wow going to be fun to be a Labour activist if List wins.

Newshub reports:

Newshub has obtained documents showing officials scratching their heads over exactly what the government wants to achieve with Auckland light rail. 

Briefings over a series of months show officials begging Transport Minister Phil Twyford to provide them with direction over the rail project so they can move it forward – and even by late July this year they still had no idea. It’s a promise to Auckland nowhere near on track.
In April, officials even prepared a presentation for Twyford explaining ‘why setting outcomes is important’. On the first slide, it said “we have no agreed outcomes currently” and the “Government position on outcomes essential to provide clear direction to design, delivery and implementation of light rail”. 

Ministers are trying to blame agencies and officials for the Auckland light rail fiasco but this makes it clear the problem was the Minister.

But the presentation still didn’t kick Twyford into gear. A briefing on July 23 later shows officials begging for direction, as they weigh up two very different proposals. 
It again says: “A key underpinning of the parallel process is to confirm the government’s desired outcomes from the light rail project” and tells the minister that for NZTA and NZ Infra to be compared on a like for like basis he must provide both organisations “clarity on outcomes the government’s seeking”.
Twyford wouldn’t be interviewed over these briefings. On Thursday he placed the blame for delays squarely at officials feet. 
“They dropped the ball and didn’t do the job that they were asked to do,” he told Newshub. 

The Minister couldn’t tell them what outcome he desired, and blames them for not having telepathy.

Metro News reports:

Students at the University of Oxford have voted to ‘replace clapping’ with a silent wave because it ‘could trigger anxiety’. They are instead being told to use ‘jazz hands’, where they wave their hands in the air. The motion to ‘mandate the encouragement of silent clapping’ was successfully passed by the university’s student union officers, following their first meeting of the year on Tuesday.

The snowflakes win again.

Stuff reports:

Māori leader Mike Smith has shot the first arrow in a global war between indigenous communities and oil companies.
Smith has started legal proceedings in the International Criminal Court (ICC) against Rainer Seele, the CEO of Austrian oil giant OMV.
He said oil company executives deserved to stand trial for genocide and other climate crimes impacting on indigenous communities now and in the future.

No end to publicity seeking. Very insulting to actual victims of genocide, as it demeans their suffering.

Smith is currently in Vienna, Austria where the OMV headquarters is based. He held a media conference outside their offices to announce the legal challenge.

Now riddle me this. How do we think Smith got to Vienna? I’m pretty certain it would have involved using the oil which he is denouncing as genocide. So maybe he should arrest himself.

Sentencing Notes for Damian Wereta.

• Strike 1 – Feb 2013: aggravated robbery with a firearm and causing grievous bodily harm with intent to injure. 10.5 years.
• Strike 2 – Sep 2015: wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm. 7.75 years.
• Strike 3 – Nov 2017: grievous bodily harm

The third strike consisted of:

you and four others attacked another prisoner without warning. A co-offender began the attack with punches to the victim’s head. Once the victim was on the ground, you punched and kicked him to the head and abdomen. You then repeatedly stabbed the victim with a shank to the head, neck and upper back. … You and they taunted the victim with Black Power slogans while he lay defenceless—and seriously injured. The victim was from an opposing gang, the Mongrel Mob. You then stabbed the victim twice more. You and your co-offenders taunted the Corrections officers. You said to them, “this is what happens when you put a mobster on my landing”. … The victim managed to stagger away. As he did so, you stabbed him twice more to the upper chest and neck. After what is described as a protracted negotiation with the guards, you dropped the shank. You and the other offenders then congratulated each other on what you had done. Some of your co-offenders tipped water and shampoo on the ground to make the difficult role of Corrections officers even more so.

The Judge also notes:

Gangs and violence are twins.

Useful reminder.

The final sentence:

I sentence you to preventive detention with a minimum period of eight years’ imprisonment.

I can’t see him getting released anytime soon.

Russel Norman writes:

Picture this. Jacinda Ardern standing in the middle of Queen St on the bonnet of a tractor with her middle finger raised as ten of thousands of climate strikers stream by.
She may as well have.
Wednesday’s post cabinet announcement means that agribusiness will pay zilch for their next five years of climate polluting. No mandatory measures from the Government to drive down agricultural emissions.
A cynical flip of the bird. …

To be clear, this polluters pact between the reactionary farming lobby groups and the Government is the opposite of climate action. 
It’s the type of lily-livered politicking which we’ve come to expect from National governments.

Yet one his own (former) Green Party signed up to.

Green Party leader and Climate Change Minister James Shaw concludes for the Government saying that New Zealand is finally getting down to the business of keeping the planet safer. More like keeping polluting businesses safe from those businesses and people who genuinely want to save the planet.
Be in no doubt. This is the ugly face of realpolitik from an administration that seems to care more about ending up in opposition than it does about climate catastrophe. They may discover both will come to pass.

He’s definitely unhappy.

One News reports:

Former Wellington mayor Justin Lester Lester will formally apply for a recount tomorrow after losing city’s mayoralty race by only 62 votes.

Will be interesting to see what his grounds are, as you need something beyond “It was very close”

The Herald reports:

The Government moved quickly today to dismiss criticisms that its plans to make New Zealand’s rural sector greener was a backdown from a key election promise.
Instead, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, Climate Change Minister James Shaw and a host of farming and agricultural sector leaders today talked up the importance of the new scheme and the “world-first” Government-industry partnership.
Instead of taxing farmers on emissions between 2020 and 2025 – the Government has instead opted to work with the agricultural sector to manage and mitigate on-farm emissions through the He Waka Eke Noa programme

I’m hearing there is a significant group within the Greens who are very unhappy with agriculture being exempted from the ETS until 2025, and possibly forever.

They’re also unhappy the Greens are supporting the anti-terrorist legislation, and the foreign land sales Green Ministers have okayed.

The target of their anger is co-leader James Shaw. It is not impossible he will face a leadership challenge – not necessarily from another MP.

It will be interesting times.

Guyon Espiner reports:

Land Information Minister and Green MP Eugenie Sage has given a foreign-owned forestry company a free pass to buy thousands of hectares of New Zealand land without applying to the Overseas Investment Office (OIO).

Japanese-owned Pan Pac Forest Products was given the special approval to bypass the OIO to purchase land for forestry for the next three years as the government sought foreign forestry money to help meet its tree planting targets.
The pre-approval was given to Pan Pac despite the Green Party having strongly protested land sales to foreigners and Forestry Minister Shane Jones saying he was sympathetic to rural concerns that converting productive farm land to forestry could cost jobs.

I’ve got no problems with the approval, but the fact Labour, Greens and NZ First all campaigned on policies of banning land sales to foreigners exposes their hypocrisy.

Georgina Campbell reports:

A deputy mayor is yet to be announced but it’s clear the left intend to have the final say, with Sarah Free increasingly looking like the most viable option.

If you were to have a Mayor from the left, Sarah would be the best bet.

Unluckily for Foster, out of all the policies on his list, it was floating the idea of selling the council’s share in the city’s airport that hit the headlines.
There was swift pushback with terms like “asset sales” and “privatisation” being thrown around.
But this idea of asset recycling didn’t come out of the blue.
It’s an idea clearly mooted in both the council and Wellington Chamber of Commerce chief executives’ pre-election reports.
Essentially it means divesting assets and recycling the proceeds to other priorities.
The council has a growing list of projects on its hands like the closed central library and the massive $6.4b Let’s Get Wellington Moving transport plan.

It is almost amusing how kneejerk some people are. They seem to think money grows on trees, and they can rarely explain what benefit there is to ratepayers from holding a minority stake in the airport. A minority stake means we have no control, and are at the mercy of the majority shareholder. Whatever expansion plan the majority shareholder decides on, the minority has to fund.

And would ratepayers rather have a new central library or keep a minority stake in an asset they don’t control?

Pink News UK reports:

New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern has explained her government’s decision to delay a ban on traumatising gay conversion therapy, acknowledging a need for “religious freedom”.

The controversial practice of so-called gay ‘conversion therapy’ was raised after more than 20,000 people signed petitions calling for it to be outlawed in New Zealand.

My personal view on conversion therapy is it is a hoax that is quite harmful. You can’t change who someone is attracted to. Sure you can get them to repress it, but you can’t change something as fundamental as attraction.

“We believe more work needs to be done before any decision is taken to ban it,” it said in its report. “In particular, thought must be given to how to define conversion therapy, who the ban would apply to, and how to ensure that rights relating to freedom of expression and religion were maintained.”

I think banning it would be problematic. How do you define it in such a way as to exclude someone just giving advice?

And would a ban achieve anything? I suspect so called conversion therapy is dying off, as the vast bulk of society no longer sees homosexuality as something needing to be fixed.

A crucial vote just passed in the committee stage of the End of Life Choice Bill. MPs voted 63 to 57 to make the law conditional on a referendum.

This means that all nine NZ First MPs will vote for the End of Life Choice Bill at 3rd reading, which should lead to it passing. That will then result in a referendum with next year’s election. Polls have shown 3:1 support for legalising euthanasia, so unless something untoward happens, we should expect terminally ill New Zealanders to gain the choice of an assisted death by the end of 2021.

Vox reports:

The top US diplomat in Ukraine just told lawmakers that President Donald Trump wanted hundreds of millions in military aid to the Eastern European country held up until it agreed to investigate Joe Biden’s family and another conspiracy theory related to Democrats.
In other words, there was a quid pro quo — one that could eventually lead to Trump’s impeachment in the House and even more trouble with the Senate.
William Taylor, the acting US ambassador to Ukraine, testified in front of three House committees on Tuesday as part of the Democratic-led impeachment inquiry. He’s the latest in a parade of current and former US officials who’ve testified in the past few weeks about whether or not Trump withheld around $400 million in military aid to Ukraine for his own political and personal gain.
According to Taylor, that’s exactly what the president did. This is by far the most damning account of Trump’s conduct yet in the impeachment inquiry.

The testimony is damning and of course Trump should be impeached and convicted. Can there be a greater abuse of office than withholding military aid to an ally under threat from Russia, in an attempt to force them to smear his main political opponent.

In effect, Taylor told Congress that, in his understanding, if Ukraine wanted anything out of Trump — including a long-desired meeting and much-needed military aid to fend of a Russian invasion — Kyiv had to state unequivocally that it would look into the Bidens.

Taylor is is a highly respected diplomat who has served both Republican and Democrat Presidents. He is a West Point graduate and served in Vietnam in the infantry.

Tomorrow, 24th October, is World Polio Day.

In New Zealand, we’re fortunate that polio has, in most of our lifetimes, been consigned to the history books. Still, as recently as 1956 there were 897 new cases of polio reported, and 50 deaths from the disease. Today, most New Zealanders have no idea how debilitating polio was, although there are still Kiwis living with significant levels of disability as a result of contracting polio in their childhood.

Fast forward to the 1980’s. Rotary International was looking for a global humanitarian project. A multi-year programme had seen six million children vaccinated in the Philippines. Rotary set itself the lofty goal of completely eradicating polio, and was pivotal in the establishment of the Global Polio Initiative. From 350,000 new cases of polio worldwide in 1988, this initiative has reduced polio by 99.9%.

The wild polio virus is now endemic only in remote parts of Afghanistan and Pakistan. Nigeria marked three years of being polio-free in August, and it is expected that the World Health Organisation will shortly certify Nigeria and the African continent as officially free from polio.

But it’s the last part that’s proving the hardest. The areas where polio has not been eradicated are remote, and often controlled by the Taliban, who are deeply suspicious of western medicines. Aid workers in these areas have been killed when trying to vaccinate children. Despite that, Rotary and its partners are determined to finish the job.

One of those partners is the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Bill and Melinda have donated billions of dollars to the eradication of polio, matching every dollar raised by Rotary with two dollars of their own.

Tomorrow, Rotarians (myself included) will be out in force on the Capital Connection to Wellington, on the Wellington suburban network and at stations around Wellington, and on the evening train to Masterton. Dunedin Rotarians are hitting the bus network, and Auckland Rotarians will be on the trains next Friday, 1st November. You’ll spot us in our bright red End Polio Now t-shirts, and if you can spare a few dollars, we’d be hugely grateful. The goal tomorrow and next week is to raise $150,000 to help to vaccinate children in those last endemic areas.

Only one disease has been completely eradicated in our lifetimes; smallpox. Rotary and its partners want to double that total, and spare children all around the world disability, paralysis and even death through polio. You can help us to #EndPolioNow

Stuff reports:

More than $2 billion has been wiped off the value of power companies following the announcement that the aluminium smelter in Bluff is being reviewed and could close down.
The smelter directly employs about 900 Southlanders, but its possible closure could have ramifications well beyond the region by flooding the market with cheap electricity.

If the smelter closes, it will be devastating for Southland, and bad for shareholders (like me) of power companies. But it would be very good for pretty much every other household and business in NZ, due to cheaper power prices.

“The New Zealand Government has had a clear position since 2013 under the Key/English government that there will be no more financial assistance from taxpayers for Rio Tinto, which is already supported by Meridian for the power it uses.”
That hadn’t changed, she said.

Good. The assistance given by National was wrong and misguided. Rio Tinto should commercially negotiate for the best electricity price they can get. If it is not cheap enough for them, then that’s just the reality.

An interesting decision from the District Court in 2016 when it was asked to do a recount in the Dunstan constituency of Otago Regional Council by the candidate who just missed out by 5 votes.

Judge Kellar turned down the application, as he ruled there merely being a close result is not grounds enough. The applicant has to have reasons as to why the result may be incorrect.

Closeness of the voting by itself does not provide reasonable grounds to believe that the declaration is incorrect and that on a recount the applicant might be elected.

So merely saying “Hey maybe they missed a few votes” is not good enough. You need to point to a specific issue around the ballot and count.

With Lester 62 votes behind Foster, I think he would have a very hard time convincing a court to do a recount.

The results to date in Canada are:

1. Conservatives 34.4%, 121 seats
2. Liberals 33.1%, 155 seats
3. New Democrats 15.9%, 24 seats
4. Bloc Quebecois 7.7%, 32 seats
5. Greens 6.5%, 3 seats

So it will almost certainly be a Liberal minority Government supported by the NDP.

It’s interesting that in this case FPP helps the Liberals immensely. They got fewer votes than the Conservatives but 34 more seats.

There was a swing against the left. The Liberals lost 29 seats and the NDP 18 seats, but not enough to change the Government.

It will be interesting to see if Trudeau’s 2nd term is less scandal ridden than his first.