Will Trump win on the economy?

News.com.au reports:

The US Commerce Department’s first-quarter report puts GDP growth at 3.2 per cent, well above the 2.3 per cent mark economists predicted and the strongest first-quarter print in four years.

That’s very decent growth.

Mr Trump’s good news is reportedly stoking fears among Democrats as they continue to grapple with producing an economic message of their own.
Celinda Lake, a leading Democratic strategist and pollster, told Politico this could prove “disastrous” for the party next year.
“We don’t really have a robust national message right now,” she said. “We will tend to talk about things like paid leave and equal pay — and those things are all very popular policies. But they don’t add up to an economic message that is robust enough to win the presidency and beat Donald Trump who talks about a very robust economic policy.”
She added: “You may agree or not with it, but you know what (Trump’s message) is. And Democrats, you don’t know what it is. And that’s a recipe for disaster in 2020.”
Conservative commentator Hugh Hewitt said the 2020 election “isn’t going to be close”, citing the GDP figures as evidence the Trump economy is getting “stronger and stronger”.

As Bill Clinton said “It’s the economy, stupid”

Aussie election getting closer

The latest Newspoll had the Coalition improving to 49% TPP to Labor’s 51%.

In March it was 46% to 54%.

Most pundits are saying Morrison is campaigning well and Shorten not so well.

Still have to favour Labor to win at this stage, but these results show campaigns do matter.

HDPA gets drive time

The Herald reports:

Top journalist and commentator Heather du Plessis-Allan is the new host of Newstalk ZB’s Drive show.
The current presenter of the station’s Wellington Mornings show, du Plessis-Allan has been at the forefront of New Zealand’s news for 15 years.
The Herald on Sunday columnist has hosted prime-time TV shows, grilled politicians in her role as a press gallery journalist, broken many stories including the Saudi Sheep Farm saga and an investigation that showed up flaws in our firearms laws.
Du Plessis-Allan will step into the Drive slot on May 13. She replaces host Larry Williams, who has departed after 27 years in the job.

A great choice for the role. Following on from Larry means you have huge shoes to fill, but Heather is the best person for the job.

Hosking says keep the Crusaders

Mike Hosking writes:

Jacinda Ardern is a compassionate, likeable, engaging and open-hearted leader who perhaps in those dreadful days post March15 had the finest moments of her premiership, not just at that point in time, but most likely ever.
It was the part of the job she is a natural at.
But knowing when to move on is an art, and if there is a criticism in our response, it is the simple truth that we might just have spent too much time and too much energy not moving forward and the Crusaders debacle exemplifies this.
No one — literally no one — was talking about the connection to the Crusaders, and religion, or history and what it may or may not mean.

The same way the Highlanders are a team, not marauding killers.
The Hurricanes are a team, not a massive destructive weather system.
The Chiefs are a team, not an insensitively, culturally inappropriately named mistake.

Good points. Will there be calls for The Chiefs to be renamed also?

It will be interesting to see what the decision will be. Whatever they decide, there will be a backlash.

Shane tried to give millions to an airline that didn’t even ask for it

Newsroom reports:

The Provincial Growth Fund was on the cusp of investing $30 million to purchase stakes in two private airlines – including one that had not even applied for funding – before advice from sceptical Treasury and Ministry of Transport officials encouraged ministers to put a stop to the plan.

Thank God for officials.

Applications of between $1 million and $20m are required to go to a Regional Economic Development Ministers’ meeting for sign off. Those ministers are Shane Jones, Grant Robertson, David Parker, and Phil Twyford. The ministers are briefed by the MBIE’s Provincial Development Unit (PDU), and an independent advisory panel on proposals
The PDU advised that the $20m request be downgraded to an investment of $15m, but also recommended that another investment of $15m be made in another airline. This is noteworthy as the second company had not yet applied for funding from the Provincial Growth Fund. 

This is what happens when you tell MBIE they have to find ways of spending a billion dollars. They come back with “Hey let’s give millions to this company, even though they haven’t even asked for it”

Ministers appeared interested enough in the proposal to ask for more information, although they were worried about the precedent the proposal would set. 

A precedent of giving money to companies that haven’t asked for it.

The proposal was shot down at the Regional Economic Development Ministers meeting on 6 December 2018. Jones said that while he was keen for the proposal to go further, his colleagues were less enthusiastic. 

Hooray for Grant, Phil and David who at least have some fiscal rectitude.

The advice notes significant concerns from Treasury and the Ministry of Transport. In particular it records scepticism about soliciting a funding application from a company that had not yet sought PGF funding.
“[The company] has not applied to the PGF for funding, and we have not seen any analysis of what benefit a $15 million investment in this company would provide,” the briefing said. 

Easy when it is taxpayer money to not care about things such as benefits. Shane think electoral benefits are the only ones that count.

Polls on cannabis

Henry Cooke at Stuff reports:

Already that lobby is hard at work. This week Family First released a “shock poll” from reputable company Curia, with just 18 per cent of respondents supporting “lifting restrictions” of cannabis for recreational use. This was drastically less than the 65 per cent of people in a poll from the same company in 2017 who supported it being either legalised or decriminalised for personal use.

A few things explain this. One is the fact that the Family First poll also included a bunch of questions likely to make anyone think twice about relaxing cannabis rules like: “Are tobacco companies pushing for cannabis legalisation?” and “Do you think that drivers using cannabis are more likely or less likely to cause accidents?”.
The other is the question. “Personal” and “recreational” are very different words. Family First didn’t let voters pick and choose between decriminalisation and legalisation, as the earlier poll did, it simply asked if people wanted the Government to “Lift restrictions for recreational use”, alongside another more popular option to “Lift restrictions for medical but not recreational use”.
This poll doesn’t deliver the knockout blow to proponents of legalisation that Family First might have hoped. But it does show us two things: that the campaign is going to matter a lot and that the wording of the question will too.

This is very astute analysis. The two polls (both done by Curia) show that people respond different ways to how questions are framed, and what they are focused on. If people are thinking about whether people should be criminalised for personal cannabis use, they tend to say no. If people are thinking about the harmful effects of cannabis, they tend to be more cautious.

Until the Government comes up with a specific proposal and wording, it would be a brave person who predicts the outcome in advance.

The Green Party confidence and supply agreement read “legalisation” not “decriminalisation” – so this won’t be a case of police looking the other way. But legalisation is different everywhere, from state monopolies in Uruguay to big business commercialism in the US. Kiwis will demand a real idea of what path we will be going down, especially as the vote will likely be binding.
Getting the details out in the open could see some supporters fall away as their preferred option is ruled out. On the other hand, it stops the anti-legalisation lobby from filling the void with suggestions every seven-year-old is going to be able to buy a joint at the corner dairy. 

I don’t favour state monopolies in anything!

WCC parking fee increase justified

Stuff reports:

Wellington City councillors are sticking to the script as they throw their weight behind a proposal which would see the yearly cost of residents’ parking hiked by more than 50 per cent.
At present, a yearly permit costs $126.50 but, if the proposal is approved, it will jump to $195. Monthly permits would increase from $10 to $17 – a 70 per cent rise.

Houses that use on street parking instead of off street parking tend to be cheaper. But it costs money to provide off street parking. I have no problem with this proposed increase, as it is basically user pays.

$200 for a year of on street parking is pretty damn good value. In the CBD you can pay $40 for a day’s parking.

Game of Thrones Season 8 Episode 3 (spoilers)

The horror of a pregnant suicide bomber

The Herald reports:

The pregnant wife of a Sri Lankan suicide bomber has detonated a suicide vest killing her self, her children, and police officers.
The wife of the suspected mastermind behind the Easter Sunday bombings detonated the explosives as police raided the family’s Colombo home, Sri Lanka’s Deputy Defence Minister Ruwan Wijewardene said.

I can’t fathom how someone can kill their children, and convince themselves it is for a good cause. You must be going against every human instinct you have.

At the centre of the plot that has devastated the peaceful Southeast Asian nation are two brothers, according to reports. They were the sons of a rich spice merchant, and they lived in one of the most lavish mansions in their wealthy suburb in Colombo.
The mastermind of the suicide bomb plot is now believed to have been Inshaf Ibrahim, in his 30s, who owned a copper factory. He is said to have detonated his own explosive device at the Shangri-La hotel, by the busy breakfast buffet, a source close to the family told reporters.

Often those who fall for extremist ideology are poor, unemployed etc and hence see a way out through extremism. But what is scary here is these brothers were very wealthy, had family yet still decided that they had a duty to slaughter innocent people through suicide bombing.

No surprise – a business suicide

The Herald reports:

A vegan cafe which became a “punching bag” after introducing an 18 per cent ‘man tax’, is closing down so its owner can pursue some “hands-on” work.
Handsome Her opened in Melbourne in 2017 and made international headlines with a bold approach to making a difference in closing the gender pay gap.
The owners of the Brunswick venture asked men to pay an 18 per cent premium one week a month and advertised ruled on a chalkboard out front that included “women have priority seating” and “respect goes both ways”.
The “tax” paid by male diners went to Elizabeth Morgan House Aboriginal Women’s Services.

How utterly non-surprising that it has gone out of business.

Why only ask men to pay an 18% premium? 60 year olds earn more than 20 year olds, so a premium for them also. If Asians earn more than non-Asians (as is the case in the US), will they also charge Asians more? What about Jews? How about a surcharge on Jews because they earn more than non-Jews?

Jordan Carter on social media and terrorism

Jordan Carter of InternetNZ has a very useful and thoughtful blog on the Paris meeting discussing violent extremist content online.

He has six thoughts on what is needed from it to be successful:

  1. Keep the scope narrow to “terrorist and violent extremist content” rather than a wider scope which hits free speech issues. Most people accept inciting violence is not acceptable.
  2. Have clear targets: Focus on the giant social media companies with the global reach, not the entire Internet.
  3. Be clear about the ask: What do you want the social media companies to do, beyond the status quo, bearing in mind such content is already outside their terms and conditions?
  4. Have a sensible application of the ask: Overly tight automated filtering will lead to overblocking
  5. Measure success and have a cost for failure
  6. Make the discussion inclusive: This shouldn’t be a decision just for Governments.

A huge security breach

Stuff reports:

More than 100 people – including white supremacists, Muslim converts and people left disgruntled by the Christchurch terror attack – are being actively monitored by police.
Stuff has obtained part of a top secret list that names those who are of concern to police following the March 15 terror attack. Stuff has chosen not to name anyone on the list or contact them for security reasons.

This is a huge security breach. The list of people under surveillance by the Police as potential security risks should be held incredibly tightly. How it could end up (in part) in the hands of the media must be answered.

White supremacist attacks San Diego synagogue

A white supremacist called John Earnest has killed one and wounded three at the Congregation Chabad synagogue.

It sounds like those in attendance fought back to some degree, which prevented a higher death toll.

Earnest is a white supremacist. He claims in an open letter that he doesn’t “care about the debt-based currency that Jews like to pretend is money” and he would “die a thousand times over to prevent the doomed fate that the Jews have planned for my race”. He goes on to blame Jews for everything from the news media, marxism, feminism, pornography, slavery, race mixing, the murder of Simon of Trent in 1475 and oh yeah the killing of Jesus.

I repeat some of his insanity here, so people can see how warped these white supremacists are. He sees anyone not white European as an “anti-human’. Also he explicitly cites the Christchurch terrorist so there is a real lesson here about how extremism encourages extremism.

Taxpayer funded slushies

The Herald reports:

More than $1 million of taxpayer money has been spent on 193 slushy machines in a bid to keep prison guards cool over summer.
Opposition leader Simon Bridges has called out the Government, saying it’s “irresponsible” and “wasteful” spending.
But Corrections Minister Kelvin Davis has reportedly said he didn’t care what Bridges had to say and he supported the health and safety spend.
Documents released to National under the Official Information Act revealed Corrections spent $1.095m on 193 ice slushy machines at the end of last year.

That’s around $5,700 per slushy machine!

You can buy home slushy machines for around $100. So even if one accepted that taxpayers should fund slushy machines for Corrections staff, they seem to have gone for the most expensive machines possible.

The horrible Philip Arps

Stuff reports:

A Christchurch business owner who admitted sharing the Christchurch terror attack livestream told police he thought it was “awesome”. 
Philip Neville Arps pleaded guilty on Friday to two charges of distributing the mosque murders video and was remanded in custody for sentencing on June 14.
When questioned by police about the massacre –  in which 50 people were murdered and 39 more shot and wounded – he replied: “I could not give a f…, mate.”

So he thought a video of the murder of 50 people was awesome.

Arps asked for Christchurch District Court Judge Stephen O’Driscoll to have him assessed for a possible home detention sentence, but the judge ruled it out, indicating Arps would be jailed.

Good.

He is the owner of Beneficial Insulation, a Christchurch business reported as featuring Nazi-related themes in its name and branding.

Yep he is a true neo-Nazi.

The next day, Arps sent the video to an unknown person and asked for it to be modified with a “kill count” as people were shot, and with cross-hairs as though the viewer was looking through a rifle scope.

Charming.

Arps has also been known to do Nazi salutes and yell out “Bring on the cull”.

His installation company has a website name (Bllg) which was the name of a barracks at Auschwitz.

So basically a giant douche. Of course being a douche is not a criminal offence. But circulating with glee a video of a murder of 50 people is.

11 guns stolen from cop station

Stuff reports:

Police are reviewing the security of their stations nationwide following the theft of unlawful weapons from a supposedly secure room at Palmerston North Police Station.
Police were left red-faced when firearms were stolen early on Anzac Day, sparking a manhunt for the alleged offender.
Various properties have since been searched by the armed offenders squad to find the 11 unaccounted-for guns.
The burglary happened when the offender was disturbed in the station yard at 7.40am. He left the scene in a vehicle, which has since been recovered.

What a clusterfrack.

How can someone break into a police station, let alone a so called secure room?

Meka says she never touched her

Newshub reports:

Embattled Labour MP Meka Whaitiri has opened up about being removed as a minister in a candid interview with Turanga FM. 
Whaitiri, MP for Ikaroa Rāwhiti, was removed as a minister by Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern in September over allegations of a physical incident with a staff member in her office. 
She denied the allegations at the time and reiterated her stance in an interview with Matai Rangi Smith, telling him: “From the time that the allegations were made, up until today, I’ve always refuted them.”

So she’s saying her brand new Press Secretary just made it up?

Whaitiri said: “There was no altercation, there was no assault. I did not touch my staff member – I growled her for not doing her job – but I didn’t touch her.”

If we are to believe Meka, then how did her press secretary’s arm get so bruised? If she implying her press secretary deliberately bruised her own arm, to get her Minister in trouble?

The bruising is what one calls evidence. The former Minister’s denial is well not evidence.

The Labour MP said she took her staff member outside to “show her the lost opportunity and to express to her as I did that this was her job ad I was disappointed”.
But she insisted she never raised her voice because she was in a public space

So is she saying she would have shouted at her if it was in private?

Whaitiri said there have been “mistruths” about the incident and she said the Prime Minister has been “an absolute supporter” of hers even since the accusations came to light.
The Prime Minister was joined by Whaitiri earlier this month in Hastings at the Waitapu Marae where Ardern said the former minister had been doing excellent work. 
“Meka is an incredibly strong advocate for this region,” Ardern said, not ruling out whether Whaitiri could become a minister again. 

Prisoners only get parole once they admit they actually did it. Surely the same concept should apply to sacked Ministers? If she continues to deny she did it, then how could the Prime Minister possibly reinstate her?

$250 a year for “premium” Herald

The Herald reports:

The New Zealand Herald will next week launch digital subscriptions, showcasing New Zealand’s best journalism and commentary.
NZME will become the first major New Zealand media business to unveil digital subscriptions – costing $5 a week, with a special introductory offer to be announced next week.
While much of the content on nzherald.co.nz will remain free, digital subscribers will access a range of premium content across business, politics, news, sport, lifestyle and entertainment including indepth investigations, exclusive reports, columns and analysis. There will also be more foreign, premium content from a range of internationally renowned mastheads.

Will be interesting to see how this goes. Also whether Stuff gains traffic as a result of this.

Christchurch doesn’t belong to any God

Stuff reports:

Members of Destiny Church affiliated groups have met opposite the Al Noor Masjid to proclaim Christchurch a Christian city.
Destiny Church Christchurch senior pastor Derek Marina Tait said the affiliated groups, Man Up and Legacy, opposed the national broadcast of the first Muslim call to prayer by the mosque following the March 15 terror attack. 
“The purpose was to stand out in the open and to declare that Christchurch and New Zealand belongs to Jesus Christ who is the one true god.”

Oh eff off. Christchurch doesn’t belong to Brian Tamaki or any God.

Afterwards people inside the mosque came out and invited them in, Healey said. 

Classy. Well done Al Noor Masjid mosque.

It was “appropriate” for the church groups to return to the same place.
“Because in that very same place the decree was put out by our prime minister and the Muslim community to declare that Allah is the one true God, which I emphatically disagree with.”

And the first commandment in Christianity is “You shall have no other Gods but me”. Most religions claim to be the one true religion, and I take no more offence at the Muslim prayer than I do the ten commandments.

Also in theory all the Abrahamic religions do worship the same God. That’s not my view, but the view of Pope Francis. Where the religions diverge is on who is a prophet and the role of Jesus etc.

Islam actually teaches that Adam, Noah, Abraham, Moses, David, Solomon etc are all prophets of God. They just also believe Muhammad was the final prophet.

Anyway the decision to broadcast a Muslim prayer on the day of remembrance was a sign of empathy and tolerance, not of the supremacy of any religion. If your religion can’t tolerate two minutes of airtime to another religion, you have big problems.

Social Media can’t do the impossible

The Herald reports:

Some 39 days after the Christchurch mosque massacres, social media sites are still struggling to stamp out copies of the gunman’s video.
New York-based researcher Eric Feinberg reported he had found another 12 copies across Facebook (which was hosting five copies), Facebook-owned Instagram (six) and Google-owned YouTube (four). All were live as of Monday NZT.

This is not surprising. Social media works by allowing people to upload content without pre-approval. If a moderator had to pre-approve every post on Facebook, Instagram and YouTube, they would die off.

Presented with earlier links uncovered by Feinberg, a Facebook spokesman said there was an ongoing effort to eliminate all copies of the alleged gunman’s video.

On April 11, a US Congressional hearing was told the clip was not gory enough to trigger Facebook’s automated filters.

“You can train AI [artificial intelligence] to effectively look for things like nudity using data like skin tone – i.e. a high level of skin tone in a particular piece of content make flag it for human review and actioning,” a Facebook insider said.
“[But] in graphic violence content, we do use data around things like tones and colours that may identify or imply violent content, however, the AI did not identify this in the Christchurch video.”
Facebook has turned its attention to audio – and specifically, sounds that could be gunshots – in its ongoing attempts to recognise terror content in its realtime
videostreaming service Facebook Live

There is a limit to what AI can do. I’m sure Facebook would love to have a tool that could identify segments of the video and delete it automatically with no false positives.

Council for Civil Liberties chairman and Tech Liberty founder Thomas Beagle has long been wary of the potential of “protective” laws to be used for political censorship or to otherwise undermine free speech.
Beagle says that fringe sites, usually hosted offshore, will ignore any social media crackdown law, while the answer for Facebook and other platforms is for them to develop better systems to filter or block content that violates their terms.

I’m very wary of any change to our domestic laws. The solutions are better technology but we need to realise there is still a limit to what can be done if people are determined to share something.

The original livestream video was seen by under 200 people and deleted quickly by Facebook. Google removed a youtube version within minutes also. They actually did response quickly.

But the problem is users kept uploading versions of it. This was a human problem. It wasn’t Facebook and Google uploading them.

The videos were in breach of terms and conditions of all major social media companies. So there is no dispute they shouldn’t be on the Internet. But again the issue is how do you stop users uploading content when there are billions of uploads a day?