Another reason to not do boundaries with this census data

Stuff reports:

Māori risk losing an electorate seat and more than 20 new iwi won’t be properly counted due to problematic Census 2018 data.
Results from the beleaguered national survey, which failed to count one in 10 New Zealanders, have been repeatedly delayed, with a release date not known one year on from census day. 
The population data is vital for Māori, and academics hold fears vulnerable communities and small iwi will be adversely affected. 
Dr Tahu Kukutai and Donna Cormack, in a paper published on Thursday, said Māori census response rate would be well below 90 per cent, possibly as low as 80 or 70 per cent in the likes of Northland and the East Coast.

This is true that a 90% average response rate will probably see a rate as low as 70% in some areas. It reinforces why the 2018 census can not be used to redraw electoral boundaries.

Canadian Liberals now 9% behind

A poll has now come out taken after the revelations from the former Attorney-General. They show:

  • Liberals 31% (-3%)
  • Conservatives 40% (+4%)
  • NDP 20% (+3%)
  • Bloc 4% (-2%)
  • Greens 4% (-2%)

The poll also found 51% believe Justin Trudeau should resign as Prime Minister.

Now Kiwibuild buying up homes already on the open market

Stuff reports:

KiwiBuild homes for sale in Huapai, West Auckland, had previously been listed – and did not sell – on the open market.
Construction firm Mike Greer has partnered with KiwiBuild to provide more than 100 homes for the scheme in West Auckland and Christchurch.
But the Huapai development, where six two-bedroom properties are currently listed for sale through KiwiBuild for $600,000 each, is a 12-unit development that was initially offered pre-construction entirely to private buyers.

So what does this mean?

Gareth Kiernan, chief forecaster at Infometrics, said whether bringing properties that had not otherwise sold into the KiwiSaver scheme rendered it redundant depended on its aims.
“If the aim is to increase the supply of housing because we’re not building fast enough and that’s contributing to the affordability programme, then Phil Twyford’s modus operandi to date of walking down the street, finding a house that’s already being built, and slapping a KiwiBuild sticker on is patently stupid and nothing more than window dressing,” he said.

So patently stupid and window dressing.

“However, if the aim of the programme is to effectively provide a taxpayer subsidy to help a select and lucky few people into their first home, then selling at a discounted rate to first-home buyers fits the objective.

So at best Kiwibuild helps a few well off people get a home a bit cheaper.

Previous TWG Chair not paid to advocate

Stuff reports:

Finance Minister Grant Robertson is defending the ongoing role of Sir Michael Cullen over tax reform, saying it was only fair he continued to be paid.

Why? His job is done. Why should he get paid to attack National MPs?

Robertson said that when National initiated a tax review back in 2010, the working group’s chair, Victoria University of Wellington professor Bob Buckle, commented extensively after the report.
Robertson said he had “no idea” whether Buckle was paid.
Contacted in response to the comments by Robertson, Buckle said he took part in the 2010 review on a voluntary basis, and he believed other members of the working group did too.
This included both the development of the report, and comments made afterwards.

Buckle wasn’t paid, and he certainly didn’t act in a partisan fashion.

If the Government was concerned about the debate, Adams said, it should have also retained the members of the working group who offered a dissenting view.
Act leader David Seymour said the extension of Cullen’s contract was “a vote of no confidence” in the ability of Robertson to articulate and defend the Government’s plan for the tax system.
“The Tax Working Group has delivered its report. For taxpayers to continue to pick up Cullen’s $1062-a-day fee after being appointed more than 14 months ago is outrageous.”

It is outraegous.

Why did Labour block Anne-Marie Brady’s testimony?

The Herald reports:

Labour MPs on the justice select committee have voted against allowing China politics expert Anne-Marie Brady to make a submission on foreign interference in elections.
National MPs supported Brady, a professor at Canterbury University, giving her view on the issue which is a focus of the committee’s inquiry into the 2017 general election and 2016 local elections.
The eight-strong committee is evenly split between National and Labour MPs and today’s vote against means Brady cannot appear.
National MP Nick Smith, who is a member of the committee, said it was concerning that Labour blocked Brady from making a submission on the critical issue of protecting New Zealand from foreign interference in its democracy.

Even if one doesn’t agree with everything Brady says, she absolutely should be heard by a select committee inquiring into an area she has extensively published on.

Justice committee chairman Labour MP Raymond Huo said the decision to decline Brady’s late request was purely procedural.

There is no way it is purely procedural. Labour MPs would have been instructed by the Government to vote against. Presumably Labour is worried that allowing Brady to testify would upset the Chinese Government.

Winston agrees with me

Last week I blogged:

Enabling Maori to change roll types at any time allows gerrymandering of seats. I am surprised the Greens want to introduced gerrymandering to NZ. It would allow people to transfer backwards and forwards between the general and Maori roll, based on which seat they think is most marginal. It would mean seats would be less likely to have the same electoral population.

Newshub reports:

Ms Ghahraman also addressed remarks made by Mr Peters about her Bill’s proposal to allow voters of Māori descent to change roll type at any time.
Mr Peters took a swipe at the first-time MP, saying: “You’ve got to have some experience and think these things through.”

“The ability to change seats from Māori to general whenever you feel like it, that could turn into the biggest gerrymander you’ve ever seen in New Zealand politics,” Mr Peters said.

Nice to see Winston use my talking points.

WCC funding quackery to find water

Stuff reports:

Divining rods are being used to find important infrastructure in Wellington on the ratepayer-funded clock.
Downer Group said the practice was one tool used to find underground water supplies while on contract to Wellington City Council and the firm had defended dowsing as being “used quite widely”. 
“Farmers and the waste industry also use this practice to locate underground water sources,” Gary Sue, Regional Manager of Wellington Transport Services at Downer wrote in an email to NZ Skeptics Chair Craig Shearer.
“It’s not fool-proof but I am told it does work.”

My God. I am glad I don;t have shares in Downer. A senior manager believes in divining rods. Do they also believe in voodoo dolls?

A Downer employee was spotted using dowsing to find a pipe on the streets of central Wellington in January, Shearer said. The spot was then marked with spray paint.
“It just makes the company look silly and promotes the belief in magic things.
“It’s kind of like how the hell would this work? I guess the dowsers feel that they are somehow in tune with the earth. It’s just magical thinking.”
Jordan Williams of the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union said the practice was “absurd”. 
“Having contractors dig up pavement on the basis of vibrating sticks risks significant waste of ratepayer resources.”
However Wellington City Council spokeswoman Vic Barton-Chapple said “there is no additional cost to the customer” for the service.

Of course there is an extra cost. If Downer staff were not wasting time on quackery, then they’d be more efficient at finding waterways through actual science.

“Downer has told us they do not have a specific policy on the use of dowsing.
“They do not actively promote this practice however, from time to time, their teams may use this practice if it is safe, there is no additional cost to the customer and when used in conjunction with technology and service plans.”

This is like a company saying they don’t have a specific policy on the use of telekinesis.

Jihadi wants to sell cannabis when back in NZ

The Herald reports:

The Kiwi jihadi being held in a Syrian prison has told a reporter that if he returns to New Zealand, he is interested in setting up a medicinal cannabis company. …

“He said he was interested in starting a business and he had heard there was going to be a referendum on cannabis and he was interested in starting a medicinal cannabis company of some kind,” MacDiarmid told RNZ.

If the legalisation of medicinal cannabis didn’t occur through the referendum, MacDiarmid said Taylor was thinking of running a café.

Maybe he could do both – sell cannabis from his cafe!

VUW threatens legal action vs Hipkins

Victoria University of Wellington released:

The University has received independent legal advice on the Minister of Education’s decision to decline the University Council’s recommendation to change the name of the University to University of Wellington. The advice was provided by two senior public law practitioners who are external to the University and independent of one another.
The University considers that there is a very high likelihood the Minister’s decision has not been lawfully made.
The Minister has given himself a position closely supervising the decisions of the University Council, a role which has no basis in the statutory scheme. This approach undermines the institutional autonomy that Parliament intended for universities. The Minister has then applied his own, previously published criteria, rather than those in the Education Act. He has required an enhanced form of “consultation” from the Council, which has no basis in statute and is far beyond what the law requires. In addition, the Minister has misunderstood the “national interest” and made a decision on this ground that is not supported by the law and is contrary to his officials’ advice.

The Council will be raving bonkers if they seriously try to judicially review the decision by Chris Hipkins. Their decision is opposed by a majority of all their stakeholders – students, staff and graduates. The City Council is opposed. The local MPs all think it is nuts. The Minister had clear advice from the Ministry that he could decline due to lack of proper consultation.

Even if a court found some technical flaw, at best the Minister just has to reconsider, and I’m sure the decision will be the same.

The other option open to the Minister is to start sacking or not reappointing Council members if they vote to proceed with a judicial review.

Cullen being paid $1000 a day to attack National

Stuff reports:

This week it emerged that while the Tax Working Group has disbanded, Cullen has had his contract extended by the Government.
Cabinet papers show Cullen was to be paid $1062 a day in his role as chairman of the TWG.
“We extended his appointment as the chair of the TWG to 30 June because we were aware there would be extended public discussion on the report, and this has played out,” Finance Minister Grant Robertson said in a statement.

This is outrageous. The TWG has completed its work. A final report went to Government in February. It has been disbanded.

To have taxpayers continue to fund Dr Cullen in a role which no longer exists is bad faith, especially that he is spending all his time attacking statements from National MPs.

University won’t reveal how much it gives a news site

A Cheryl Carr did an OIA to the University of Auckland asking:

  • The commencement date of the sponsorship and the proposed duration of the sponsorship of Newsroom
  • The total financial sponsorship received by Newsroom
  • The contractual arrangements with respect to any benefits the University of Auckland would receive in consideration of the agreed sponsorship.

The response was to only confirm the dates and refuse all other information as being subject to an obligation of confidence.

That is an outrageous response from a taxpayer funded organisation and I have the decision is appealed to the Ombudsman.

The University is not a commercial business. There is public interest in knowing why they are giving a news site money, and what they get in return for it.

Mclauchlan on the MMP threshold

Danyl Mclauchlan writes:

The Green Party has put forward a members bill which, among other things, advocates lowering the MMP threshold from 5% to 4%. Let us set aside the terrible, terrible optics of a political party that is part of the government, and hovering just above the 5% threshold in the recent round of polls – and which routinely under-performs the polls on election day – attempting to alter the electoral system to its own advantage and consider the 5% threshold itself.

The self-interest is indeed massive.

In terms of performance, here is the difference between their result and the last ONCB poll:

  • 1999: -0.8%
  • 2002: -1.0%
  • 2005: +0.3%
  • 2008: -2.3%
  • 2011: +1.1%
  • 2014: -1.3%
  • 2017: -1.7%

So if the Greens are at 6% in the polls, it is quite possible they’ll end up under the 5% threshold in an actual election.

Our version of MMP was copied from the German system and the threshold was there to prevent the rise of extremist political parties, something that nation was apprehensive about for obvious reasons. That didn’t seem like a realistic fear for New Zealand so copying such a high threshold seemed unjustifiable. But now that we’re seeing a global rise of extremist parties, a fascist government in Brazil, etc, it no longer seems like such an abstract fear.
But my main problem with lowering the threshold is that it will also probably save New Zealand First, and it will make the New Zealand First model of politics so much more viable.
This is a model in which you fundraise from exploitative, extractive industries (fishing, forestry), campaign on populist issues (Peters’ flagship policies in 2017 were lower immigration, a referendum to ditch the Māori seats and to remove GST on fruit and vegetables), ditch all of your policies and issues as soon as the election is over, and use your position in the political centre to maximise your personal power.
It means Peters gets to operate as a de facto co-prime minister, he gets to veto any attempts to regulate his corporate donors, he gets to unilaterally change our long-standing foreign policy towards China without bothering to tell the actual prime minister, let alone the Cabinet, his deputy gets given three billion dollars to just give away to whoever he wants, and none of this has any mandate from the public whatsoever.

An excellent description of NZ First.

The 5% threshold hasn’t saved us from Peters but this is because he’s one of the most brilliant politicians the country has ever seen. His model is a very successful hack of the MMP system, but you have to be Peters to pull it off – otherwise everyone would do it: after all, you get near total political power with virtually no votes.
But Peters was kicked out of parliament after his last shambolic tenure in government and, based on the current polls, he’ll be wiped out at the next election, so it is (hopefully) not a sustainable model, even for him. The 5% threshold is what protects us from countless imitators reproducing the hack and wrecking our government. That is what the fence is protecting us from. We’d be fools to lower it.

A fair argument.

Bye bye medieval laws

The Herald reports:

The Government has repealed a law that Justice Minister Andrew Little has described as “medieval, archaic and unjust”.
Parliament last night unanimously passed the Crimes Amendment Bill, which repealed the “year and a day” rule as well as axed laws prohibiting blasphemy and imposed harsher sentences for would-be livestock thieves.

Good on the Government for doing this. While not the highest of priorities, it is a good thing to get rid of archaic laws, especially ones that had a potential chilling effect on freedom of speech.

Bridges vs Ardern

Audrey Young writes:

It is not often that Simon Bridges gets the better of Jacinda Ardern in Question Time.
It is even more rare for Bridges to be applauded by his own side. 
But both happened today – until Speaker Trevor Mallard intervened.
Ardern’s loss of form was Bridges’ capital gain as the National leader and the Prime Minister went head to head over a comprehensive capital gains tax (CGT) proposal.

National’s research unit had done their homework and found a quote of Ardern’s from Mike Hosking’s show last week in which she had pressed home what she sees as an empathetic advantage.

I presume done their homework means they read Kiwiblog 🙂

Ardern had disputed the NewstalkZB host’s claim that none of the cabinet had experience running a small business.
She herself had run a small Non-Government Organisation (NGO), she had said.
“What was that NGO,” Bridges asked in the House.
In her lengthy answer, an irritated Ardern failed to utter the answer, which was well known to everyone.

Bridges: “Is the NGO she spoke of the International Union of Socialist Youth?”
Ardern: “The member knows how to use Wikipedia – well done.”

Rather tetchy the PM on this topic.

And the next ad-lib question almost earned Bridges a standing ovation from his own team: “Has talking to international comrades helped her with her small-business policy development in New Zealand.”
She protested amid the happy uproar at Bridges’ question that she knew what it was like to hire and fire people, perhaps more than Bridges had as a Crown prosecutor.
It was Bridges’ moment but Mallard was having none of it. There are no rules for when applause is tolerated and when it is not. That is decided by the mood of the Speaker who clearly did not like National ganging up on her.
Mallard: “We’re not going to have that sort of seal-like approach in this House.”

If the PM can’t handle question time by herself, that says something.

The Hansard exchange is here:

Hon Simon Bridges: When she told Mike Hosking last week and this morning that she’d run a small NGO that helped her understand small business, what was that NGO?
Rt Hon JACINDA ARDERN: I did not tell him that this morning.
Hon Simon Bridges: When she said last week on Mike Hosking that her running a small NGO had helped her understand small business, what was that NGO?
Rt Hon JACINDA ARDERN: Actually, I spent more time talking about the fact that my first jobs were all in small businesses. The point that I was making at that time—and actually, I continue to make—is that, as a Government, we are considering all of the issues that have been raised. That includes whether it be residential rentals, whether it be small business, whether it be KiwiSaver.
Hon Simon Bridges: Is the NGO she spoke of the International Union of Socialist Youth?
Rt Hon JACINDA ARDERN: The member knows how to use Wikipedia—well done.
Hon Simon Bridges: Has talking to international comrades helped her with her small-business policy development in New Zealand?
SPEAKER: Order! Order! No, the Prime Minister will sit down. We’re not going to have that sort of seal-like approach in this House. It’s a final warning, and I think Mr McClay will be the first out.

I am sure all the small business owners out there will be reassured by the fact the PM once presided over the global order of young socialists.

Sustainable NZ wants to always be in Government

Newshub reports:

Vernon Tava wants his new party to “always be in Government” regardless of who’s leading it.
Mr Tava, who’s previously challenged for the Green Party leadership and stood to be a candidate for National, is setting up a new vehicle for his political ambitions – the Sustainable NZ Party. …

“It’s an independent party – that’s the point and it has to be. It’s very important to me that that’s what it is. So really, the point is that people have a party they can vote for that can always be in Government.”

This is a key selling point for those who want better environmental outcomes. The Greens can only influence Government when there is a Labour-led Government.

The Sustainable NZ party is saying they want to be in Government regardless of whether it is National or Labour, so they can be delivering on their environmental priorities all of the time, not just some of the time.

The Helen Clark Foundation

The Herald reports:

Former Prime Minister Helen Clark is set to launch her own foundation for independent research into major issues of the day, including climate change and drug policy reform.

I’m think this is a good thing. We need more thinktanks, not less. I may not agree with much of what they say, but public policy is enhances by having thinktanks doing good research in topical areas.

The foundation’s board is chaired by her husband Peter Davis, a public health specialist.
The board also includes Clark’s long-time friend and confidante Joan Caulfield, who served as her electorate agent, as well as accountant Geoff Pownall and lawyer Simon Mitchell.

It is unclear whether this is the same Simon Mitchell who once worked in Clark’s electorate office and bought the painting at the centre of ‘Paintergate’ controversy.
Clark had signed a painting that she had not painted, and it was auctioned for charity. Mitchell bought the painting from the original buyer and then gave it to Caulfield, who destroyed it.

It is the same Simon Mitchell.

The foundation is partnering with the Auckland University of Technology and The Policy Observatory while the Foundation becomes established.

I’m not quite sure what partnering means. Does it mean funded by? While I’m supportive of the new foundation, I’m not supportive of taxpayer money going on it.

Clark is a member of the Global Commission on Drug Policy, which promotes drug policy based on people’s health and safety.

On drug policy I am broadly in agreement with Helen Clark.

Errington said that the foundation needed to fundraise, and believed the funding so far had come from Clark herself.
“We’re just trying to get off the ground. Anyone who is keen to be part of it should feel free to approach us.”

That sounds like there isn’t taxpayer funding, which is good.

The foundation’s website is here.

Has Shaw got the Greens to agree to a GM u-turn?

TVNZ reports:

Climate Change Minister James Shaw has not ruled out the use of genetic modification – however, he says it should be a question for the public and he would be led by the science around the issue. 

This is a huge policy change by the Greens co-leader.

The Greens previously have been against all genetic modification. Shaw is now saying he would be led by the science.

Luckily the science is clear. Sir Peter Gluckman said that the science is settled that GM is safe.

I look forward to hearing from other Green MPs that they will also be led by the science on GM.

Trudeau loses a Minister

The Treasury Board President, Jane Philpott has resigned saying:

I have been considering the events that have shaken the federal government in recent weeks and after serious reflection, I have concluded that I must resign as a member of Cabinet.
In Canada, the constitutional convention of Cabinet solidarity means, among other things, that ministers are expected to defend all Cabinet decisions. A minister must always be prepared to defend other ministers publicly, and must speak in support of the government and its policies. Given this convention and the current circumstances, it is untenable for me to continue to serve as a Cabinet minister.
Unfortunately, the evidence of efforts by politicians and/or officials to pressure the former Attorney General to intervene in the criminal case involving SNC-Lavalin, and the evidence as to the content of those efforts have raised serious concerns for me. Those concerns have been augmented by the views expressed by my constituents and other Canadians.
The solemn principles at stake are the independence and integrity of our justice system. It is a fundamental doctrine of the rule of law that our Attorney General should not be subjected to political pressure or interference regarding the exercise of her prosecutorial discretion in criminal cases. Sadly, I have lost confidence in how the government has dealt with this matter and in how it has responded to the issues raised.

This is very significant as the resignation doesn’t even try to pretend it isn’t about the interference with a prosecution. She has basically said she can not defend what Trudeau said, so she must resign.

The thoughts of Mark Taylor

ABC reports:

In 2015, the US Government declared Taylor a global terrorist after he encouraged attacks in Australia and New Zealand and appeared in an IS propaganda video.
He also posted a YouTube video telling followers to “commence your operations, even if it means you have to stab a few police officers, soldiers on Anzac Day and so be it.”

Surely that by itself should see him jailed if he returns.

He says one of his regrets while living in the so-called Islamic State was being unable to afford a Yazidi slave.
“I would have like to have one, but I never got to,” he said.

Yes this is his big regret. He couldn’t afford a slave!!! I vote we skip the trial.

Taylor said he believed if he owned a slave he was entitled to do whatever he wanted, and he didn’t care that the women were taken forcibly as slaves.

He just needs a bit of kindness and he’ll be rehabilitated right.

“I’m sorry for causing too much trouble and being a bit hot-headed and flamboyant in my approach… I don’t know if I can go back to New Zealand, but at the end of the day it’s really something I have to live with for the rest of my life.”

He thinks supporting ISIL is just a bit flamboyant!

But he does of course have people who want to help him get home. The Greens! Stuff reports:

Green Party Justice spokesperson Golriz Ghahraman says if New Zealand is presented with the opportunity, we should cooperate in bringing home the Kiwi being held captive in Syria by Kurdish forces, Newshub reported.

The Greens want Canadian speakers banned from NZ, but think we should help a guy whose major regret is he couldn’t rape a female slave from returning home.

New Zealand should do the bare bare minimum under international law with regard to Taylor. We are not allowed to refuse him entry, but we certainly should not assist him.

Victims let down by justice system

Stuff reports:

Her comments come as the preliminary results of a victims survey reveal the system was “letting victims down”.
More than 600 people participated in the survey that asked victims of crime for their their views on the criminal justice system, what works and what doesn’t, and how they believe it can be improved.
Fifty seven per cent of people said that they either had a poor or very poor overall experience of the system, while 22 per cent said they had an average experience.

That’s an appalling result. Not entirely surprising as the system is based on the alleged criminal, not the victim.

Some of the experiences will be because of light sentences or even getting off. But often it is other stuff such as their sentencing comments being censored because they are too inflammatory etc.

Meanwhile, new research released by Victim Support showed the majority of serious crime victims lack faith in the justice system, felt justice was not served in their case and commonly reported they felt they had no genuine voice in the justice system.
About 59 per cent of victims interviewed told researchers they had no faith in the justice system and 68 per cent felt justice had not been served in their case.
This was despite 73 per cent of cases in the study resulting in a guilty verdict and 52 per cent resulting in imprisonment of the offender.

These figures will only get worse if we move to a catch and release policy in order to artificially keep prison numbers down.

Long may he stay there

Newshub reports:

Mark Taylor, the “Kiwi Jihadist” has been jailed in a Kurdish prison after surrendering after life became unbearable, reports say.
ABC News Australia reported the New Zealander, who had lived with the extremist group for five years, handed himself over after leaving because of lack of resources.
“There was no food, no money; basic services were pretty much collapsed. I was in a pickle myself and had to make a final decision, which was to leave,” ABC News reports

Long may be stay in the Kurdish prison. The last thing we want is him back in NZ.