One columnist has said the media hype over Trump and Russia is this generation’s version of the false intelligence that Saddam had WMDs.

Axios finds a staggering 533,074 articles on Trump and Russia.

The three main US networks devoted 2,284 minutes to covering allegations Trump colluded with Russia. That is the equivalent of 52 entire one hour broadcasts (based on 44 minutes of non ad time) on the one issue.

As if that is not enough good news for Trump, Michael Avenatti has been charged with trying to extort $20 million from Nike.

Trump’s greatest strength is the judgement of his enemies.

The Herald reports:

Images and video taken at the emergency conference of the Organisation of Islamic Co-operation (OIC), show Peters, who is 74, with his head slumped and eyes closed for extended periods of time. …

He did not, however, deny being asleep.
It is not the first time Peters has appeared to nod off at meetings.

Last week, Peters sat with his eyes closed and his head down at times while Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and a contingent of Ministers and MPs met Muslim community leaders following the mosque terror attacks in Christchurch.
A few weeks before that, Peters’ eyes were closed during a Security and Intelligence select committee hearing, also attended by Ardern.

So that’s basically three times in three weeks that Peters has fallen asleep while performing public duties.

Stuff reports:

On 5 August 2018, the Sunday Star Times published a story which made a number of incorrect statements about Hon. Tim Groser, and in particular about his decision not to seek an extension to his term as NZ’s Ambassador to the United States. These statements were repeated on the Stuff website.
Stuff accepts those statements were incorrect and unreservedly apologises to Mr Groser for those errors.
Mr Groser, a former Trade Minister, trade negotiator and diplomat, recently returned to NZ after successfully completing a term as Ambassador to Washington. The decision not to seek an extension to his term was made entirely by Mr Groser. 

What I find fascinating it it took almost nine months for Stuff to retract their story and apologise. Why did it take so long?

The Herald reports:

National leader Simon Bridges is calling for a Royal Commission of Inquiry into the terror attack that killed 50 people in two mosques on March 15.
He also said New Zealand’s security legislation needs to be reassessed with some urgency to ensure “New Zealanders are kept safe”.
Speaking to media last Monday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern confirmed there would be an official inquiry into specific circumstances leading up to the terror attack.
It would look at what all relevant agencies knew or could or should have known about the individual and his activities, including the alleged gunman’s access to weapons and whether they could have been in a position to prevent the attack.

“It would also assess if there were any impediments to the sharing of information, such as legislative or intelligence sharing challenges,” Ardern said.
She added the New Zealand SIS, GCSB, Police, Customs, and Immigration’s role in response, and leading up to, the shooting would be looked into.
Although a Royal Commission of Inquiry was on the table, Ardern was not able to confirm at the time if that was the route the Government would take.
But Bridges said this was the only suitable level of inquiry available to the Government.
Speaking to the Herald, he said although other inquiries could undertake the review, it wouldn’t have the “stature, the independence and the thoroughness of a Royal Commission”.

There are basically four types of inquiry. They are:

1. Ministerial inquiry – not a statutory inquiry, initiated by a Minister within their portfolio area
2. Government inquiry – established by a Minister into any matter of public importance
3. Public Inquiry – established by Order in Council into any matter of public importance
4. Royal Commission – appointed by the Governor-General (on advice of Cabinet) into a matter of the most serious public importance

There are also no differences in powers between the third and fourth options but in terms of status it is hard to argue against this being a matter of the most serious public importance so Bridges is right to argue it should be a Royal Commission.

New Zealand’s security legislation needed to change as well, Bridges said.
Project Speargun – a programme which would have scanned internet traffic coming into New Zealand – was abandoned in 2013 by the then-National Government after “vocal views against it”, Bridges said.
He added that this was because many of the critics were prioritising privacy over safety.
He said Speargun would have “given an extended degree of protection to all New Zealanders”.
A system called Cortex is now in place in New Zealand, but Bridges said it was much narrower and designed to protect institutions.
He would not, however, say if the Government’s decision to abandon the programme was a mistake.
“My view is everything has changed – I’m not pretending it’s easy – but where the line is now drawn has to be reconsidered.

Quite a few people have criticised the SIS and GCSB for not detecting the terrorist. The inquiry will look into this. But this will be a core issue – will those demanding he should have been detected be willing to give the security agencies greater powers to do so?

Is is worth remembering that one party in Parliament has policy to abolish both the SIS (subject to select committee review) and the GCSB.

UPDATE: Since writing this the Government has announced there will be a Royal Commission

Lloyd Burr at Newshub writes:

New Zealand had a seat at the top table in a huge room of leaders, officials, and diplomats from 57 Muslim-majority nations.
It was an emergency conference of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation to discuss the Christchurch terror attack, and Winston Peters had been invited to represent New Zealand. 
And he was asleep, for all the world to see. 

Not a good look.

If that wasn’t bad enough, Peters didn’t even go into bat for Kiwis during his meeting with Turkish President Erdogan. He may as well have been asleep then too. 
Erdogan had spent the previous week politicising the terror attack during his local election rallies. He played footage from the gunman’s camera, he disrespected our ANZAC soldiers, and threatened to send anyone who attacked Turkey back to New Zealand in coffins like their grandfathers. 
His actions were poorly judged, poorly timed, and targeted a sacred bond forged on the battlefield that defined both our countries. 

Taxi drivers and other locals who we talked to in Turkey apologised for Edogan’s comments, and were embarrassed by them.
And even though Jacinda Ardern said Peters would confront this issue when he was in Turkey, he didn’t. 
He didn’t even raise it. He didn’t let the Turkish President know we were brassed off, and hurt, and disappointed. It was the elephant in the room, and he was the ostrich – he ran away from it.

The PM has been doing a great job responding to the attack. The Foreign Minister has not.

When asked why, Peters either said he was invited by Turkey to be there, or that there was nothing to be gained from raising it, or that Erdogan’s comments were made in the heat of the moment after a tragic event.
He even said Cabinet had instructed him not to raise it. That doesn’t fit with Ardern’s comment that he would “confront” the issue. 
It was embarrassing as a Kiwi sitting in that press conference with the world’s media watching, listening to Peters brush it off like it wasn’t a big deal. 

Peters also claimed there was no need to raise it as Erdogan had stopped using the video. Barely an hour later he used it again!

Al Jazeera reports:

The US-backed fighters in Syria have declared military victory over ISIL on Saturday, ending a four-year battle against the group that once held territory spanning a third of Syria and Iraq.
After weeks of heavy fighting, the tent camp where the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, or ISIS) fighters) had made their final stand in the village of Baghouz was bombed to shreds.

This is great news. ISIL’s credibility came from the fact it actually had territory (equal in size to Great Britain) and had established a state with a Government and billions of dollars of revenue. They attracted fighters from around the world.

There will still be some ISIL inspired terror attacks in future, but far fewer than before.

I’ve been monitoring ministerial staff numbers since 2008 as it useful to track if Ministers are loading their offices up with communications and political staff, at taxpayer expense.

In 2008 under Clark there were 286 staff. In 2017 under English there were 275. In 2018 Ardern had bloated it to 312 staff.

A count up of staff according to their January 2019 listing shows also 312 staff. But of interest is there are now two fewer Ministers. The average Minister employs 10 staff so you’d expect up to 20 fewer staff, but the level has remained the same.

The breakdown of staff is:

• Managers 33
• Communications 41
• Political 37
• Portfolio 146
• Admin 45

The SMH reports:

Michael Daley has vowed to remain as leader of the NSW Labor Party, amid the likelihood he will be challenged for the top job in the wake of Labor’s disastrous state election result.

Daley has only been leader for five months. He may not get to serve a year.

However, inside the Labor Party shock at the result had turned to anger by Sunday monring as it became apparent that Labor, in a best-case scenario, would win only two seats – Coogee and Lismore.
“People are ropeable,” one senior party figure said.

Up until a week ago, the Coalition had not led in the polls for 12 months. Labor were looking very likely to win or at least reduce the Coalition to a minority.

It shows campaigns do matter.

Over the weekend I reflected that arguably the Christchurch terror attack was the least successful terror attack I could think of.

I don’t mean unsuccessful in terms of killing people. Sadly he was successful there. The loss of life was appalling and we won’t forget the victims.

What I mean is that in terms of his objectives, he has been a miserable failure. In fact he has achieved almost the polar opposite of what he aimed to do.

He said that he decided to attack Muslims in New Zealand because (his words) they are the most despised group of “invaders” and attacking them will receive the greatest level of support.

Well he has achieved the opposite. He has done more to foster goodwill and empathy for Muslims in New Zealand, than many would have though possible. The 50 victims have been the human face of what happened. Almost $10 million has been donated to their families. Tens of thousands of New Zealanders have attended memorial services. The words of mosque leaders preaching peace and tolerance have been heard up and down the country. Muslim prayers have been said in Parliament, on television and radio.

Again this is the greatest backfire I can recall. The overwhelming reaction from New Zealanders has been the total opposite to what he wanted.

His other aim is to help incite global war by sparking revenge attacks against New Zealand. But again the opposite has happened. To the rest of the world, New Zealand has been the victim not the perpetrator. The response led by Jacinda Ardern has had New Zealand praised around the world. The President of Turkey did an op ed in the Washington Post praising her. Her image is being beamed onto the tallest building in the Middle East. The response of New Zealand as a whole, but especially Ardern, has seen New Zealand praised by most Muslim nations.

So once again he has scored an incredible own goal. He has probably done more to frustrate his own aims, than anyone else could have done on purpose.

That doesn’t lessen the tragedy for the 50 dead and their families. It doesn’t lessen the fear that many Muslims will have in having been targeted in this way. It goes without saying that we would all be better off if he had somehow been detected before he could launch his attack.

But the fact his hatred has backfired so massively in terms of his aims, is some comfort I hope.

The Herald reported:

New Zealand has received advice from a wide range of countries on how to improve its human rights, including from Venezuela, Russia, Syria and Myanmar.
The advice is included in the United Nations Human Rights Council draft report on New Zealand.

That’s lovely that Russia, Syria and Venezuela could share their expertise with us on how to improve our human rights so we can match their levels.

Russia wants New Zealand to consider not only a written constitution but wants to see the Treaty of Waitangi enshrined in law.
Venezuela wants the Bill of Rights Act to be given a constitutional status and it wants to see women and girls guaranteed a life free from violence.
Iran wants New Zealand to improve anti-discrimination legislation to ensure the protection of rights of ethnic minorities.
Belarus wants to see less over-crowding in prisons and better access of prisoners to quality medical services.

How can we say no to any of these proposals.

And Oman wants New Zealand to strengthen measures in the area of women’s empowerment and the promotion of equal opportunities for women.

Always amusing when a country which up until 2010 required a woman to get permission to marry to tell us we should have equal opportunities for women.

An interesting discussion on Radio Live about whether the Government will exempt Iwi from a Capital Gains Tax, as they may face a Treaty claim if they don’t.

What I found most interesting is the two Iwi who submitted said they support a CGT, but for everyone but themselves.

The Mueller report has been delivered to the US Attorney-General with no indictments against members of the Trump Family, and no charges laid which suggest there was collusion with Russia.

Certainly what has come out to date shows that Trump had terrible people around him, but that is nothing new.

I never thought collusion was likely because that would require a degree of organisational competence that the campaign didn’t seem to have.

This should kill any talk of impeachment, with the focus now on the 20 months until the 2020 election.

How are things looking? Well depends on who the Democrats select but here are recent net approval ratings around 800 days in:

• Bush GHW +77
• Eisenhower +54%
• Kennedy +47%
• Truman +40%
• Johnson +36%
• Bush GW +34%
• Nixon +14%
• Carter +8%
• Clinton +6%
• Ford +2%
• Obama +2%
• Reagan -8%
• Trump -11%

AP reported:

A decade after discovering natural gas fields off its Mediterranean coast, Israel is starting to feel the geopolitical boost.
Its newfound riches have fostered economic bonds with its neighbors, tightening relations with Arab allies, and built new bridges in a historically hostile region — even without significant progress being made toward peace with the Palestinians.
Last week’s inclusion of Israel into the Eastern Mediterranean Gas Forum in Cairo — a consortium aiming to cut infrastructure costs and lower prices — marked the first time Arab countries accepted Israel into such a regional alliance, sparking excitement in the country that its long-held hope of finally also making “economic peace” with Egypt and Jordan was fast approaching.
“I think this is the most significant economic cooperation between Egypt and Israel since the signing of the peace treaty 40 years ago,” Israeli Energy Minister Yuval Steinitz told The Associated Press during his visit. “The discovery of significant gas fields in the eastern Mediterranean has also political value because it brings all of us … together to cooperate with each other.”

This is very significant having Israel in a Middle Eastern economic alliance.

The forum, which also includes Cyprus, Greece, Italy and the Palestinian Authority, aims to emerge as a mini-OPEC of sorts and highlights how Israel has been leveraging its newfound gas reserves into a powerful tool to expand its immersion into a region that has increasingly come to see Iran and Turkey, rather than Israel, as their greatest rivals.
With the expected gas boon, Israel plans to wean itself off coal and emerge as an unlikely energy exporter — providing both an economic and political lift.
In the coming months, Israel will begin exporting gas to Egypt as part of a $15 billion deal signed last year to provide 64 billion cubic meters of gas over a 10-year period that will help turn Egypt into a regional energy hub.

Excellent. Countries that trade together tend to not get into armed conflict.

Politik reports:

A sign that the National Party membership want to see some changes in the party has come with news that there are now seven candidates seeking four positions on the party’s board.
The clear message is that changing the Leader last year was not enough.
More is needed.

I don’t see this as a bad thing. I think it is healthy to have lots of people wanting to be on the board. National is a party that is pro-competition.

Four of the candidates are sitting members of the board; Andrew Hunt, Alastair Bell, Glenda Hughes and Pat Seymour.
The three new candidates are Grant McCallum, Stefan Sunde and Paul Foster-Bell.

I know all of them. They’re all good people, and it gives the party a healthy choice.

Stefan Sunde, the former President of the Young Nats, told POLITIK that with the nomination process still in play he didn’t want to make any comment.
But party insiders say his pitch to members has been to press his Young Nat background as an asset in focusing on the younger vote which the party now finds a lot harder to attract since Jacinda Ardern took over the Labour leadership.

I’m not endorsing anyone but always good to see a young member stand for the board.

Eric Crampton writes:

Even though smoking rates have declined, nothing suggests that current policy will achieve the Government’s goal of getting smoking down to less than 5 percent of the population by 2025.
And so we come to the promising car that has come around the corner – new and safer ways of accessing nicotine.
Spend any time walking around a downtown urban centre and you will notice the clouds of vapour coming from former smokers who have switched to a less harmful alternative. Rather than berating smokers for their habit, vaping offered a way of delivering nicotine without combustion’s nasty consequences.
But vaping is hardly the only alternative out there.
Nicotine gum and patches have long been prescribed as stop-smoking solutions, but simply haven’t worked for a lot of smokers trying to quit.
Swedish snus is a powdered tobacco contained in a small sachet that looks like a teabag; users place the sachet behind their lower lip. Snus is far safer than smoking or traditional chewed tobacco, has been an important part of Sweden’s decline in smoking rates since the 1980s, but has only recently became available in New Zealand. And new technology that heats tobacco rather than burn it, and consequently avoids creating the carcinogens that come with combustion, is now on the market too.
There have to be a wide variety of options available for people wanting to cut down or quit smoking because different things work for different people.

This is a key point – no one approach will work for all. But there is little doubt that many smokers are transitioning to vaping.

Philip Morris makes one of the newer reduced harm products. Its Iqos device heats non-combustible tobacco rather than burn it. Iqos is less harmful than smoking, but perhaps not quite as safe as vaping – the science is still being settled on that one. Nevertheless, ‘heets’ (the tobacco sticks used in Iqos) face the same tobacco excise rate as cigarillos. Excise on cigarette tobacco is just over $1,300 per kilogram or about $0.92 per cigarette. Excise on other tobacco products, from cigars and cigarillos to snus and ‘heet’ sticks, runs just over $1,150 per kilogram of tobacco.
In every other aspect of tobacco control policy, the Government has been adamant that price is an effective deterrent. That is why it imposes excise taxes that cost a pack-a-day smoker more than $6,700 per year, despite the regressive effects of that tax regularly highlighted in Statistics New Zealand’s inflation updates.
If the Government wants people to switch from smoking to less harmful alternatives, why does it impose the same tax on combustible tobacco as on tobacco that is used less harmfully? A 10-gram packet of snus selling for $21, containing 15 sachets, draws about $11.50 in excise – or about $0.77 per sachet. A 10-gram packet of cigarillos would draw the same excise.

If the aim of the tax is to reduce harm, rather than raise revenue, then there should be different levels of taxation based on the harm.

When the Prime Minister quipped that Philip Morris could simply stop selling cigarettes here, she absolutely missed the point. Other cigarette companies would fill the gap in the market. But if reduced-harm products had a greater price advantage over cigarettes through a risk-proportionate excise regime, more smokers overall might switch.

Policy is much harder than slogans.

The PM announced:

Military style semi-automatics and assault rifles will be banned in New Zealand under stronger new gun laws announced today, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.
“On 15 March our history changed forever. Now, our laws will too. We are announcing action today on behalf of all New Zealanders to strengthen our gun laws and make our country a safer place,” Jacinda Ardern said.
“Cabinet agreed to overhaul the law when it met on Monday, 72 hours after the horrific terrorism act in Christchurch. Now, six days after this attack, we are announcing a ban on all military style semi-automatics (MSSA) and assault rifles in New Zealand.

This sounds like a good step. The key thing will be what is the precise definition used in the bill. What is an assault rifle?

“Legislation to give effect to the ban will be introduced when Parliament sits in the first week of April. We will provide a short, sharp Select Committee process for feedback on the technical aspects of the changes. We are looking to progress the amendments to this legislation under urgency and expect these amendments to the Arms Act to be passed within the next session of Parliament,” Jacinda Ardern said.

I’m glad there is a short select committee process. It is essential people can submit on the details.

“The Bill will include narrow exemptions for legitimate business use, which would include professional pest control. Police and the Defence Force will also have exemptions. Issues like access for mainstream international sporting competitions are also being worked through,” Police Minister Stuart Nash said.
“We have also acknowledged that some guns serve legitimate purposes in our farming communities, and have therefore set out exemptions for 0.22 calibre rifles and shotguns commonly used for duck hunting. These will have limitations around their capacity.

The proposed exemptions sound sensible. I look forward to seeing the detailed bill.

Have a look at the document listing all the stakeholders the review group (that is proposing taking almost all powers away boards of trustees) met with.

Barely a handful of schools make the list. Of 2,600 schools maybe a dozen had meetings. Parents and trustees were missing.

Little wonder the recommendations are to remove parents from meaningful involvement in school governance.

Politik reported:

The Government has effectively rejected a radical proposal from the Productivity Commission which could have opened up the Budget process to non-governmental organisations.
The previous National Government in 2017 asked the Commission to examine productivity in the state sector.
Predictably the Commission produced a report which drew heavily on private sector market-driven ways of improving performance.
It particularly suggested that the Minister of Finance should set aside money in the Budget dedicated to “high impact initiative” proposals that had a high probability of making a significant impact on social wellbeing.
These would need to be  evidenced through robust business cases, and returns on investment and then the Government would progressively increase the share of the budget allowance devoted to that portion.
“The Minister of Finance should restrict access to the “high-impact initiative” portion of future budget operating allowances to those departments that can credibly demonstrate productivity gains from existing baselines,” the report said.
But even more controversially it proposed that the process be opened up beyond the state sector.
“The Minister of Finance should allow non-government organisations to make budget bids directly to the Treasury for the “high- impact initiative” portion of the operating allowance,” the report said.
In other words, NGOs would be able to bid for Budget funding on the same basis as a Government Department like Social Development or Education.

That’s a great idea. It could make a huge difference. Very sad the Government has rejected it. I love the idea of NGOs being able to do direct budget bids.

Now Whitcoulls has banned Jordan Petersen’s Book, will the next step be a public burning of all books deemed incorrect?

No doubt Don Brash’s books will be added to the pile along with Mike Hosking’s and Bob Jones’.

I blogged in February on how the MOH tried to undermine a report showing worse outcomes for babies in midwife-led care. Rather than look at how to improve outcomes, they tried to discredit the research.

Seems this is not new. Received this e-mail from Andrea Menclova, an associate professor at Canterbury University:

My name is Andrea Menclova and I’m an Associate Professor of Economics at the University of Canterbury. I was very pleased when Diana Sarfati and Ellie Wernham published their paper on the NZ lead maternity carer system. I find it appalling how they have subsequently been treated and this bullying behaviour from the College of Midwives needs to stop.
 
I myself wrote a paper reaching similar conclusions as Sarfati & Wernham in 2008. I presented it at a few conferences/in academic seminars. After a presentation at the Centre for Health Economics Research and Evaluation in Sydney, my Head of Department received a letter from the College of Midwives ‘warning him’ that I do research of poor quality (with many of their points completely uninformed) and asserting that: “there is a clear agenda and conflict of interest which is not stated”. At that point, I had only been in New Zealand for less than two years and had no connections in the LMC system or the NZ healthcare system more generally, had received no funding to conduct the study and had no a-priory views on maternity care. The College of Midwives have never contacted me directly. Like Peter Crampton at Otago, my then Head of Department (Seamus Hogan) fully supported me and defended academic freedom. Still, I can very much relate to Peter Crampton’s assessment that researchers attacked so aggressively by the College of Midwives then feel “beaten up and traumatised by the experience”. That’s not okay.  

Very sad that there is a pattern of abuse and attack of anyone pointing out flaws in the current system.