Fran O’Sullivan writes:

Jacinda Ardern’s use of prime ministerial fiat to ban new offshore oil and gas exploration is disturbingly Orwellian.

Official papers released by her hapless Energy Minister confirm what was already blindingly obvious to anyone who has observed closeup the process of Governmental decision-making — the ban was purely political.

A decision that was kicked upstairs and made by Ardern, NZ First Leader Winston Peters and Greens Leader James Shaw. And rushed through — without being contested through appropriate Cabinet consideration — so it could be announced on April 12 just before the Prime Minister headed to Europe.

What it also confirms — as I wrote in April — is Ardern put her debut as a global climate change warrior ahead of making credible plans to transition New Zealand away from a reliance on fossil fuels towards clean energy.

They rushed it through so the students in London would cheer her.

On April 10 — two days before Ardern unveiled the decision — officials warned Woods the proposed ban would be “detrimental to a number of public policy objectives”.

It would not only decrease economic activity in Taranaki (currently home to NZ’s highest paid provincial earners) and increase costs to consumers. But it would increase the risks around security of supply and result in a reduction in Crown revenues from lower future royalties.

Importantly , as the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) pointed out the reduction of domestic greenhouse gas emissions would be negligible. Said MBIE, it would more likely result in increased global emissions as methanol produced from gas at Methanex’s Taranaki plant would be replaced by methanol produced by using coal from China.

So in summary it means less jobs, less tax, less royalties, less energy security, higher energy costs and an increase in global greenhouse gas emissions.

John Armstrong writes:

It thought it was onto an absolute winner.

And with good reason. The policy had a number of virtues for a party in Opposition, the chief one being its sheer simplicity.

Stuff reports:

Animal rights advocates have walked out of a Government-led hui, after representatives of groups they campaign against also attended the meeting. 

The hui was designed to hear a raft of animal welfare concerns, in the wake of the Government’s decision in March to not ban rodeos.

But the gathering turned sour when NZ Rodeo boss Lyal Cocks and a well-known pig farmer turned up.

How silly to walk out. They actually had a chance to have face to face discussions and influence with a major operator.

Stuff reports:

The Prime Minister has had words with her deputy over him calling a National MP “hysterical” and has told Kelvin Davis he shouldn’t have said it.

In a statement from Jacinda Ardern’s office, a spokeswoman said, “Minister Davis has apologised to Jacqui Dean and to the Prime Minister herself.

“The Prime Minister says he should not have made that comment and he understands that.”

So what did Dean do that had Kelvin label her hysterical?

During one of many fiery exchanges, Davis called Dean “hysterical” for asking whether tourism jobs would be impacted as a result of increasing costs for small businesses.

Seems a rather reasonable question.

National MPs on the Economic Development committee are demanding Davis be recalled after what Todd McClay described as the “worst performance of any Minister in any select committee ever”.

“I think he was vacant, not just complacent,” McClay said after the hearing.

“I think the tourism sector, the public who maybe interested in how all of this money that was promised before the election might be spent, were left without the answers.”

Davis got increasingly frustrated throughout the hour-long meeting and not only had heated exchanges with Dean and McClay but also the committee chair, Jonathan Young.

At one point Young, who was becoming visibly frustrated by some of the responses, raised his voice asking “when do we get to see?” after weeks of being told to wait and see what the Budget delivered

Davis shot back, “I’m sorry, don’t talk to me like that”.0910

I don’t think Davis understands that Ministers are meant to be able to answer questions from select committees.10

The Northcote results are here.

With over half the results counted, the count is:

1. Dan Bidois (N) 5,923, 51.2%
2. Shannan Halbert (L) 5,123, 44.3%
3. Rebekah Jaung (G) 304, 2.6%

The change (at this stage) from 2017 is:

• National down just 1.6%
• NZ First down 3.8% (did not stand)
• Greens down 4.2%
• Labour up 8.7%

So at this stage it looks like mainly a redistribution of votes on the left, plus lower turnout.

Will update once final results come in.

Final results are:

1. Dan Bidois (N) 10,147, 51.1%
2. Shannan Halbert (L) 8,785, 44.2%
3. Rebekah Jaung (G) 579, 2.9%

The change (at this stage) from 2017 is:

• National down just 1.7%
• NZ First down 3.8% (did not stand)
• Greens down 3.9%
• Labour up 8.6%

So no big change except Labour picking up Green and NZF voters (which is logical voting behaviour for a by-election).

Congrats to Dan Bidois who is the new MP for Northcote. He has a great background which should serve him well as an MP. Good to see National having such good talent join them.

The Herald reports:

The spiking price of fuel, slow progress on housing and infrastructure and the threat of rising labour costs has sent business confidence in the country’s biggest city into “free fall”, says Auckland Chamber of Commerce boss Michael Barnett.

The chamber last week surveyed 800 businesses and found nearly half (44 per cent) believed the economy will deteriorate over the rest of this year.

Only 15 per cent thought the economy would improve during that time.

Compare that to June last year, when a third of businesses surveyed thought the economy would improve while only eight per cent believed things would get worse.

This is no surprise. When you have a government that decides to close down an entire industry without consultation or advice, then no wonder business owners are spooked.

The popular vote in Ontario was:

• Conservatives 40.6% (+9.3%)
• NDP 33.7% (+9.9%)
• Liberals 19.3% (-19.4%)
• Greens 4.6% (-0.2%)

The seats are:

• Conservatives 76 (+48)
• NDP 40 (+19)
• Liberals 7 (-51)
• Greens 1 (+1)

So a comfortable win for the Conservatives. The Liberals lose recognition as an official parliamentary party as the threshold is eight MPs.

The outgoing Premier has held onto her seat by only 181 votes. She has resigned as Liberal Leader.

Stuff reports:

Only just over 3 per cent of houses sold or transferred in the March quarter went to foreigners, Stats NZ data shows.

Of the properties which transferred to new ownership in the three months, 3.3 per cent went to people who were not citizens or residents, up from 2.9 per cent in December.

But Labour said 40% were being sold to foreigners with Chinese sounding names.

“The proportion of overseas sellers also increased in the March quarter, to reach 1.5 per cent, after staying steady at 1.3 per cent for a year.”

So the difference between foreign buyers and sellers is just 1.8%.

Stuff reports:

Light rail in Auckland will be one of the slowest public transport airport links in the world, a new lobby group says.

Paul Miller, of the Auckland Airport Smart Transport Group, said our biggest city has a “horrendous history” of short sighted transport projects, and light rail was not a “rapid” solution.

The newly formed group has calculated that at 45 minutes Auckland would have the fourth longest trip from the city centre to the airport out of 71 international cities.

Thanks to the Waterview tunnels, the trip by car is now often just 20 minutes or so.

“There are no airports with 40 million passengers that have a tram link to the airport as their primary connection,” he said.

Minor detail I am sure.

“When you get off from a 12-hour journey to the airport, do you really want to travel at 32kmh – or just jump in an Uber?”

Miller said few international cities have light rail as their primary airport link, and the Government should instead look to connect to heavy rail on the southern line.

The Government had been “hijacked by a tram lobby”, and although light rail down Dominion Rd was a good idea – it shouldn’t be extended to the airport, he said.

Call me old fashioned but I think you go for the option with the best BCR.

But Transport Minister Phil Twyford said the planned light rail was not about making an express service, but about building a rapid transit network across the city.

“It’s not primarily about getting people to catch a plane, or for tourists,” he said.

So they want light rail to the airport, but it’s not primarily for the millions of people who catch planes. Beyond weird.

The Auckland Airport Smart Transport Group was a group of concerned citizens, local politicians and transport experts, from across the political spectrum, Miller said.

Auckland councillor Mike Lee helped the group come together, he said.

Lee seems to be one of very few independent thinkers on Council.

The Herald reports:

Auckland Mayor Phil Goff says he is maintaining confidentiality by not giving councillors full and open access to a $1 million pre-feasibility report on a potential $1.5 billion downtown stadium.

Following growing pressure from councillors and a former aide to drop strict conditions for accessing the report, Goff said he was concerned to maintain obligations to third parties- believed to be landowners of five potentials sites in the city.

Councillor Penny Hulse told the Herald today that councillors should be treated on an equal footing with the mayor when it comes to the report and respecting its confidential contents.

Three other councillors – John Watson, Cathy Casey and Efeso Collins – have lodged complaints with the Ombudsman over the mayor’s actions.

As they should. Bad enough Goff commissioned this report and kept it secret for so long, but to deny elected representatives a copy is patronising.

A former political adviser to the mayor when he was in Parliament, James Bews-Hair, has criticised Goff’s behaviour over the report and “his peculiar obsession with a waterfront stadium monument to his leadership”.

The Herald reports:

A comparison of Labour’s campaign fiscal plan with its first Budget shows things are not tracking quite as Labour planned during the campaign, something it put down to its coalition agreements and higher costs than expected.

Analysis by NZ Herald data journalist Keith Ng shows total Crown spending is forecast to be almost $12.5 billion higher over the five years to 2021/22 than Labour forecast in the “fiscal plan” it campaigned on in the last election.

Labour campaigned on its fiscal plan against criticism from National that it had not allowed enough to cover the costs of its policies as well as increases in Government spending such as wage increases.

And that criticism has been proven justified. Labour have been saved by the fact the economy they inherited is so booming that extra tax revenue has saved them.

Despite increases in the Budget the forecast spending on health was currently $3.35 billion lower than in Labour’s plan while education was $3.26 billion lower over the next five years.

So they’re spending extra on MFAT and regional slush funds and less than promised on health and education.

Hamish Rutherford writes at Stuff:

Since Ardern led a group of Cabinet colleagues into the Beehive theatrette to announce the move on April 12, there has been mounting speculation about just how little detailed analysis was undertaken behind the move. …

But only on Tuesday did New Zealand learn that whatever advice was provided, it ultimately meant nothing.

This was not an agreement made around the Cabinet table, by New Zealand’s most powerful body, acting in the best interests of New Zealand, bound by collective responsibility.

It was a political deal, struck after intense lobbying between the leaders of political parties, who agreed what was going to happen. The Cabinet was informed after the fact.

Here’s what interests me. If this wasn’t a decision taken by Cabinet, then how was Winston persuaded to back it. The decision runs totally counter to their policies and rhetoric. There must be some sort of political pay off in exchange. Maybe the price was the Greens continue to back the waka jumping bill?

In fact, it appears that the deal was the subject of exhaustive meetings and discussions, amid warnings from the Beehive that from time to time, this is how decisions will be made in this coalition.

But this is not how Government should be done.

Especially a decision to close down an entire industry. No consultation or analysis at all.

Politicians ultimately the reserve the right to shortcut the decision-making process to come to the conclusion they want to.

But for a Government which proclaims its values and promises openness and transparency, it is on a fast track to losing any moral high ground.

I’d say the moral high ground was lost some months ago.

Matthew Charles Conchie is a second striker.

His second strike offence was wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm. He attacked a man in central Auckland with repeated punches before stabbing him in the chest with a knife. The victim was fortunate not to die. The knife punctured his heart. In the emergency surgery to repair it his heart stopped beating and he only lived due to manual massage of it by surgeons.

For this random and unprovoked attack, Conchie received a sentence of just 5 years 2 months imprisonment.  Three strikes ensures he serves the full sentence without early release on parole.  The sentencing Judge indicated she would impose a minimum non-parole period of 60% of the sentence, were it not for Three Strikes removing parole eligibility. So he could have served just three years for almost killing someone.

His first strike offence was an aggravated burglary, in which he kicked down the door to a residence armed with an air pistol and threatened to kill an occupant.  For this armed home invasion he received a sentence of 2 years 8 months imprisonment.

Conchie is understood to have over 30 criminal convictions as an adult, including at least two convictions for threatening to kill, as well as possession of offensive weapons.  He is a P user and addict and a clear and present danger to the community, repeatedly attacking people at random.  If the bar for Preventive Detention was not so high, he would be a perfect candidate.

Under Three Strikes, Conchie remains in prison until at least August 2021.  Without Three Strikes, he would be eligible for release from prison by the Parole Board as soon as July 2019.

It seems inevitable that Conchie will eventually graduate to a Third Strike and will then be subject to the maximum sentence available for the offence committed.

Hamish Rutherford at Stuff reports:

Finance Minister Grant Robertson gave a post-Budget speech at a $600-a-head Labour fundraiser at the exclusive Wellington Club, drawing comparisons to the previous National Government’s “Cabinet club” scandal.

According to several attendees, about 40 people, including party supporters, business figures and corporate lobbyists, attended the dinner hosted by Labour president Nigel Haworth on Wednesday, at which Robertson was the key attraction.

A similar dinner is due to be hosted at the even more exclusive Northern Club in Auckland on Thursday night.

National leader Simon Bridges has accused the Government of hypocrisy, after Labour once described National’s events, which appear similar to the one attended by Robertson, as “cash-for-access”.

It shows how insincere and hypocritical Labour are. They railed against this in opposition, and of course do exactly the same in Government.

Personally I have no problems with fundraising dinners. The problem is Labour’s hypocrisy in attacking them in the past.

A spokeswoman for Robertson refused to make any comment, describing the dinner as “a party matter”.

The Prime Minister, who is charged with ensuring Cabinet rules are being adhered to, has also refused to comment. …

Haworth said Robertson should not be speaking about party matters, given he was there as an MP, not finance minister.

“He was there, invited by me, as a senior member of the party.”

Shortly after the story was published, an invitee supplied Stuff with a copy of the invitation sent out by Haworth, which suggested Robertson was at the event as finance minister.

“You are cordially invited to join me at a private post-Budget dinner with the Finance Minister, Hon Grant Robertson MP.”

So the Labour Party President says Robertson was there as an MP, not as Finance Minister – but this is contradicted by the invitation the President sent out. Don’t we call this a lie?

Ontario is going to the polls. I’ve taken a lot of interest in this election as up until a few months ago a mate of mine, Patrick Brown, was the Leader of the Opposition and likely to become Premier.

He got pushed out by his own party within hours of sexual misconduct allegations (which have now somewhat unravelled and are the subject of defamation claims). His replacement as Conservative leader is Doug Ford, the brother of the infamous Rob Ford – the scandal ridden party and drug Mayor of Toronto.

The incumbent Liberal Government has 58 out of 107 seats.

The latest projection is they may win just one seat. The Conservatives are projected to win 74 seats and the NDP 49 seats.

Of course the results may vary from the projection, but one things seems certain that the Liberals will be all but wiped out. There is a small chance the NDP may get to form Government rather than the Conservatives.

Paul Moon writes in the NZ Herald:

What makes this audacious and unwanted encroachment on our right to speak and think freely all the more insidious is that this proposed ban on “disharmonious speech” would not apply equally to the criticism of all religions.

The open season on attacking Christianity, for example, would remain, with its followers responding, as their faith requires, by turning the other cheek. Instead, the commission is explicit that this proposed free-speech ban would only apply to the sort of disharmonious comments that are “targeted at the religion and beliefs of ethnic minority communities” in New Zealand.

There’s a show on television called Lucifer. Quite a good show. It’s about Satan having given up ruling hell to run a nightclub and help catch criminals. Portrays God is a pretty bad light and God’s wife even worse!

Probably quite blasphemous to many Christians but I’m not aware of any violent protests against it.

Could you imagine a TV show that featured Mohammed running a night club. Thousands would probably be killed in the protests.

There are several troubling aspects of this plan. Firstly, the commission is moving from protecting people from unpleasant speech (which itself is dubious) to protecting ideas from criticism. If a belief is so fragile that some disharmonious comments might damage it, then maybe the adherents of that belief ought to reconsider its worth rather than seek to shield it from scrutiny.

Exactly.

Also criticism of a religion is not the same as criticism of followers of a religion. I judge people not off what their religion is, but off how they behave.

Secondly, the commission is conflating religion with ethnicity, which is an appalling case of stereotyping. And to show how far the commission has tied itself in knots over this issue, by singling out the religions which it presumes are those of ethnic minorities, it is acting in a way that discriminates on the basis of race and religion, ironically possibly in violation of its own legislation. The thought of the commission investigating itself for a breach of the Act under which it operates indicates how far its ideologues are pursuing the appeasement of certain religions on a Chamberlainian scale.

Islam is not a race. That never stops people calling you racist or having a negative view on Islam.

The freedom to criticise religion and to try to discover the truth was a burning issue (sometimes literally) in previous centuries. Yet in our more enlightened age, the Human Rights Commission is challenging the notion that we have progressed far enough to discuss, debate, and even criticise ideas that are different from our own.

Why does the commission wish to ban and penalise free speech to protect certain beliefs? Surely the commission, and the rest of us, would be far better off adhering to the maxim of the Czech theologian Jan Hus: “Love the truth; let others have their truth, and the truth will prevail.”

I vote Paul Moon to be a Free Speech Commissioner.

The Herald reports:

The country’s largest user of gas in the manufacture of methanol faces a bleak future under the Government’s ban on offshore exploration. 

A briefing paper from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, one of a number of documents on the oil and gas industry released today by Energy Minister Megan Woods’ office, said Methanex would not be able to operate at full capacity from 2021 and would stop completely after 2026.

“Methanex will require a new discovery if it is to continue operating in New Zealand over the medium to long-term.”

Methanex’s managing director Dean Richardson declined to comment on the MBIE paper today.

Methanex last year had 270 staff in New Zealand, earning twice the average Taranaki wage, and about 100 contractors.

It contributed $640 million to the Taranaki economy, accounting for 8 per cent of the region’s economy, and $834m to the national economy.

People in Taranaki should be angry at what the Government has done. It wasn’t as if this was a considered decision where they weighed up the pros and cons. They just decided to kill off an entire industry by fiat regardless of the consequences.

Methanex is our only methanol manufacturer. They earn us export dollars as they export 95% of what they produce. The Government’s decision will mean they close down in NZ. This means that other countries will produce that methanol, which will actually increase greenhouse gas emissions globally. It will also mean we’ll need to import. So we lose jobs, high wages, tax revenue and damage the environment. What a genius Government we have.

Damian Karl Wereta is a second striker.

His second strikes were for two convictions for wounding with intent to cause grievous bodily harm, committed on fellow prisoners, for which he received a sentence of 7 years 9 months imprisonment, cumulative on his existing first strike sentence.  He and other prisoners attacked three others in a cell with improvised weapons, leaving one victim with a life-threatening neck injury.  He committed his second strike offences while in prison serving his first strike sentence.  The Judge said he would have imposed a 50% minimum non-parole period, if it wasn’t for Three Strikes requiring that the entire sentence be served in full without parole.

As a result, Wereta is certain to serve almost 4 years more in prison than would be the case without Three Strikes. Despite his serious offending he would be eligible for parole after just half his sentence.

Despite Wereta committing numerous violent offences while in prison and his long history of violent offending, the Judiciary have failed to protect the public by sentencing him to preventive detention, despite the Crown asking for that sentence in 2015.  Wereta has also attacked a Crown prosecutor while in Court.

His first strike offence was for the aggravated robbery of a suburban dairy, which he committed with his brother.  For that, and other offending, he received a sentence of 10 years 6 months imprisonment.  Aggravated robberies of dairies can have devastating consequences for the victims. Apart from the obvious violence suffered, the psychological impact is often huge, and financially can be crippling on people often barely able to eke out a living from running their dairy, working long hours, 7 days a week.  When sentenced for this offending in 2013, the court had to have 13 police and security officers in court to ensure Wereta and his brother, who was also being sentenced, behaved themselves.  Both were heavily manacled for the sentencing.

Damian Wereta has at least 76 criminal convictions, including at least 25 convictions for violent offending, and an unknown number of Youth Court convictions.  He is a gang member.  Aged approximately 38, a psychologist has assessed him at a very high risk of offending and creating new victims, whether in prison or out on the community.

Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern and Justice Minister Andrew Little want the Parole Board to be able to let him out early, which would allow him to continue his violent offending in the community, rather than in the confines of prison.

Under Three Strikes, Wereta will remain in prison, ineligible for parole, until at least September 2022.

His background is sad, but also makes you realise the chances of rehabilitation are so limited. His dad was a gang chapter president.  He was into drugs and alcohol at a very early age. CYFS got involved with him once he was seven. He never went to secondary school. He has fathered seven children himself. He appears to have never had a job.

The Herald reports:

A play area will be built on the front lawn of Parliament, but without the usual bright play equipment often associated with playgrounds.

Instead, images released by Speaker Trevor Mallard show a natural-looking area designed to blend in with the surroundings of Parliament’s smaller front lawn.

Mallard said it was hoped the play area, which consists of a slide, a pole maze and balance beams, would encourage families to visit Parliament, and to make the experience more welcoming, enjoyable and accessible.

“The play space will also help to meet the rapidly growing need for play spaces in Wellington as inner city apartment living becomes more common for young families,” he said.

A great idea. Of course some have suggested Parliament already has a playground – the debating chamber!

In another move to make Parliament more accessible, Copperfield’s cafe in the Beehive may also open to the public on non-sitting days.

Also sensible. More people will visit a tourist attraction that has an accessible cafe.

Stuff reports:

A campaign of “organised violence” by gang member inmates against guards has led to dozens of staff at Auckland Prison calling in sick on Sunday.

The Corrections Department confirmed it was forced to bring in guards from other prisons because of “a higher than usual number of staff calling in sick this weekend”.

Alan Whitley, president of prison staff union the Corrections Association, said at least 30 staff did not turn up to work at the Paremoremo prison on Sunday, following an assault on a guard on Saturday. …

Saturday’s assault was at the fifth attack by an inmate against a guard at the prison in the past week. 

The answer is obvious. We should just release all those prisoners on parole, so they can no longer assault prison guards.

Genius.

Stuff reports:

One document on the existing rights of exploration permits shows that officials at the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) warned the move would “run counter to a number of important public policy objectives”, official James Stevenson-Wallace wrote.

The decision would have a “negligible impact in reducing domestic greenhouse gas emissions but a likely increase in global greenhouse emissions”.

Stevenson-Wallace said this could come as a result of methanol which is currently produced from gas in New Zealand being replaced by methanol produced from coal in China.

So really this decision wasn’t about the environment. In fact it is bad for the environment. It was about allowing the PM to virtue signal internationally.

8,000+ jobs will cease to exist, and greenhouse gas emissions will increase. A double whammy.

MBIE also warned that the move was likely to lead to higher gas prices and reduce security of supply “at a time when New Zealand has its lowest reserve to production ratio since…2003”.

That’s okay. We’ll just import more from China!