Liam Dann writes:

Food prices are bugging people this winter. It feels like we’re being ripped off.
Part of the problem is that inflation is supposed to be low.

It is for TVs and phones and clothes and broadband plans. It definitely is for wages.

But food – and fresh healthy food in particular – hasn’t been sticking to the script.

Food prices rose 2.2 per cent in the March quarter but fruit and vege was up 16 per cent.

Food prices have spiked in the last couple of months, but this is not uncommon due to weather or other seasonal factors.

I had a look at what food prices have done on an annual basis for the last decade.

So what has been the average price increase from 2009 to 2016?

Well food prices in December 2016 were 9.9% higher than December 2008 so an average annual increase of 1.2%.

Fruit and vegetable prices in December 2016 were 13.7% higher than December 2008 so an average annual increase of 1.7%.

So I think Liam is premature in concluding there is a problem.

Got sent a very interesting thesis looking at the change in voting patterns of the working classes in the UK and NZ.  The two respective Labour parties were formed primarily to represent the working class, but has there been a class realignment.

The thesis uses NZ Election Study data to look at voting patterns of working class voters, being those who are manual or routine workers.

So what has it found for New Zealand. Well below is the margin between Labour and National in the last six elections for working class voters:

• 1999 – Labour +25%
• 2002 – Labour +29%
• 2005 – Labour +15%
• 2008 – Labour +4%
• 2011 – Labour +3%
• 2014 – National +3%

So think about that. More working class voters in 2014 voted for National than Labour. I think this illustrates what Chris Trotter has often said – they have lost touch with many working class families.

Nick Smith announced:

Five of New Zealand’s fastest growing Councils will have infrastructure projects funded through the Government’s $1 billion Housing Infrastructure Fund, Finance Minister Steven Joyce and Building and Construction Minister Dr Nick Smith say.

“These funding decisions will help provide another big step forward in housing supply,” Minister Joyce says. “The funding will be used to provide network roading and water infrastructure for 60,000 houses across nine projects in these five fast-growing urban areas.”

A useful supply side measure. The details are:

• Auckland Council – $300 million – 10,500 housesGreenfield development (North-west) at Whenuapai and Redhills.
• Hamilton City Council – $272 million – 8,100 housesGreenfield development (Peacockes) on southern edge of Hamilton.
• Waikato District Council – $37 million – 2,600 housesTe Kauwhata (new development on the shore of Lake Waikare).
• Tauranga City Council – $230 million – 35,000 housesGreenfield development at Te Tumu (eastern end of Papamoa) as well as a capacity upgrade to the Te Maunga Wastewater Treatment Plant and a new (Waiari) water treatment plant (at Te Puke).
• Queenstown Lakes District Council – $50 million – 3,200 housesTwo new greenfield sites (Quail Rise South and Ladies Mile) on the Frankton Flats and an extension of the Kingston township.

Around 20,000 of the 60,000 homes will be delivered within five years.

I’m a fan of congestion charging for roads, which is the busier a road gets the more expensive it is to use it. The best example of this is in some US cities where there are say two routes to the airport – one which is free, and one with a variable charge so that you are guaranteed to get there in 20 minutes. Sometimes the charge may be $2 and sometimes $15 depending on how high it needs to be to deter motorists.

I wonder if we could do the same for parking. Instead of a flat $4/hr charge, have variable fees. So sometimes it might be $1/hr and other times it might even be $10/hr – the fee adjusting to the level needed to make sure there are always say 5% of parks available.

Stuff reports:

Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi has arrived in Mosul and congratulated the armed forces for their “victory” over Islamic State after nearly nine months of urban warfare, bringing an end to jihadist rule in the city.

Islamic State’s defeat in Mosul three years after taking the city is a major blow for the hardline Sunni Islamist group, which is also losing ground in its operational base in the Syrian city of Raqqa, where it has planned global attacks.

The group, however, still controls territory in Iraq and is expected to revert to more conventional insurgent tactics such as bombings as its self-proclaimed caliphate falls apart.

This is a major victory. Absolutely Islamic State will still sponsor terrorist attacks, but losing Mosul means that they no longer credibly can promise a caliphate which attracted so many to their cause.

We should be pleased that NZ troops played a small but significant role in training up the Iraqi troops.

Certain politicians here opposed our training role by claiming that the Iraqis were cowards and could never win against Islamic State. They said we should just abandon Iraq. I’m glad we did not. Iraq still has many challenges ahead, but liberating major cities from IS rule has freed millions.

Stuff reports:

Labour is promising to scrap National’s Budget tax cut plan.

Instead it will funnell the cash into higher Working for Families payments and extra help for those with young children.

It’s a package it says will deliver up to $48 a week to extra to middle income families.

And zero for every one else. If you don’t have children you get nothing.

National’s package was a nice balance of both tax reductions and targeted extra assistance. Labour just seem unable to ever agree to reduce the burden on tax payers. In fact with fiscal drag their policies mean taxpayers end up paying a higher and higher share of their income in taxes.

Rod Drury writes:

Outside New Zealand, the world is becoming a more tribal, more uncertain place. People in the US live in fear they might lose their healthcare. If a kid gets sick many parents will face the prospect of bankruptcy – that is no way to live.

The UK will be confused for a few years as it untangles itself from Europe. In Australia their ultrafast broadband project is delayed significantly with many businesses and people being left behind by a lack of infrastructure while the world goes global with technology.

I can honestly say I’d rather be in New Zealand than anywhere else in the world.

We always have more work to do around providing housing in New Zealand and helping those in need. But there are signs much of the country is in great shape for the new connected world. In the regions we now have ultra-fast broadband, and by fast I mean blazing.

New connections are virtually gigabyte sized, 10 times what the original fibre connections were a few years ago. We have companies that are scaling in this new global environment, there is Amazon, Netflix, Uber, home food delivery, 4G mobile, and we’re starting to see electric cars and power systems to fuel them. Via the internet we have access to the world, there is a great lifestyle on offer here, world-class food and wine, in a country small enough where people still really care about each other.

I think the investment in fibre has been stunningly successful.  Some laughed and said it would only be good for faster porn. But as everything moves to the cloud and streaming, those faster speeds make a huge difference.

This has accelerated over the past five years – the amount of time top technologists from around the world now spend in New Zealand would surprise many of us. This makes the America’s Cup in 2021 a galvanising event with many, many opportunities.

While successful people using New Zealand as a lifestyle playground challenges our New Zealand value of equality – which will fuel talkback radio for years – the desirability of New Zealand gives us an advantage to create opportunities that will benefit all. Their investment and presence opens up networks that many of us use today to build our businesses and create jobs.

I welcome the Peter Theils and the James Camerons.

NewstalkZB reports:

Winston Peters is promising to boost the wool industry by forbidding the use of synthetic carpets and insulation in government-funded buildings if NZ First is part of the next government.

“Whether a government office or a Housing New Zealand property, where carpet is specified it will be natural wool or fibre from here on in,” he said on Monday.

“New Zealand First will swing government procurement in behind natural, renewable and sustainable wool and natural fibres.”

Why stop there? Why not also promise the bricklayers than wood buildings will be banned. Also promise the dairy farmers than no government office will have any liquids other than milk.

The Taxpayers’ Union described the policy as “a refreshing step back to the 1970s”.

“Carpets, as well as all other government supplies, should be selected on value for money alone,” said executive director Jordan Williams.

“This sort of crony favouritism by politicians is exactly the sort of thing which sent New Zealand bust in the early days of Peters’ career.”

It is cronyism. And expensive cronyism. The NZTU point out:

NZ First’s ‘carpet policy’ announcement this morning, to line all Government offices with woollen carpets, would cost approximately $120 million, based on the Government Property Group’s estimate of Government floor space.

Executive Director of the Taxpayers’ Union, Jordan Williams, says “While smarter carpets for government bureaucrats may be appealing to some, in comparison to what $120 million will buy you in nurses, policeman or teachers, we’re not so sure.”

Yep $120 million on nicer carpets for public servants!

Using a standard price of a woollen carpet of $79 per square metre, and a floor space of 1,524,524 metres squared, the total cost is $120,437,396.

If new carpets were only installed as part of usual replacements, the marginal cost of wool is $60 million to $93 million (in today’s dollars) more than usual synthetic commercial carpets.

Either way a huge amount of money as a naked bribe.

The latest One News Colmar Brunton poll is at Curia. Labour is now at 27% and Little is at just 5% Preferred Prime Minister. WInston is at 11%, twice the level of Little.

The 2017 election is shaping up for Labour to be like the 2002 election was for National.

Once upon a time the Dominion Post was known as a sensible newspaper. Today it has an editorial slant which would fit in on The Daily Blog.

Look at this editorial on petrol prices:

If Mr Little wanted to actually win the election he might take a leaf out of Jeremy Corbyn’s book, who would probably advocate fining the oil companies google-style and threaten to nationalise them if they didn’t buck up their ideas. 

That would greatly antagonise the business community and the media, but thousands of Kiwi motorists would say ‘onya Andy’ as they filled up.

Yes having the Government confiscate all the oil and run the industry themselves is a great idea – it worked so well in Venezuela.

Funnily enough the Dominion Post doesn’t seem to care about competition when it comes to media. They were cheerleaders for the merger with NZME.

UPDATE: The column isn’t an editorial but from columnist Dave Armstrong. I didn’t see any name on it when I first blogged it. So thankfully the Dom Post hasn’t yet gone full socialist!

Stuff reports:

Labour has thrown in the towel in the fight to win one of two seats in New Zealand’s fourth largest city, left-wing commentator Chris Trotter says. 

The party is poised to confirm nominee Gaurav Sharma on Monday night as its Hamilton West candidate just 77 days out from the general election on September, 23.

Since the Aucklander is 69th on the list, Trotter sees that as Labour’s admission it’s not a serious bid. 

Hamilton West used to be a competitive seat that was a key indicator of who would form Government. Labour used to hold it often. The fact they now can’t find anyone in Hamilton to stand for them in it speaks volumes.

It was previously held by Labour from 1972 to 1975 and 1984 to 1990 (Trevor Mallard) and between 1993 and 1996 and 1991 to 2005.

The majority in recent elections was:

• 2002 Labour 5,574
• 2005 Labour 825
• 2008 National 1,618
• 2011 National 4,418
• 2014 National 5,784

So it was a safe Labour seat and now is a seat they can’t find anyone in Hamilton willing to stand for Labour in.

Stuff reports:

Senior Green MP Julie Anne Genter says she has rebuffed an approach by Gareth Morgan’s The Opportunities Party (TOP) to jump ship.

But the fledgling party denies any “formal” approach was made.

Genter said she had rejected the proposal, made about a month ago after her bill to legalise medicinal cannabis was drawn from the ballot.

She would not disclose who made contact on Facebook, but said it was not Morgan or TOP deputy leader Geoff Simmons.

“I got a message from one of their senior people, a Facebook message, asking if I could talk. This was about four weeks ago the day my bill got pulled from the ballot so I thought it was about that.”

She had supplied her phone number and he called and said, “Do you want to come over and join us.”

“And I said ‘you can’t be serious’ – no I think I said ‘you’re not serious’ and then he said ‘I’m dead serious Julie Anne’.”

TOPs was seeking a candidate for Auckland Central and he said she was a great performance and “evidence based” so right up TOP’s alley.

No wonder the Greens are so anti TOP. It is one thing to try and steal their votes, but another to try and steal their MPs!

Stuff reports:

Wellington is to get new $50m children’s hospital paid for by millionaire property developer Mark Dunajtschik.

The philanthropist will pay for, build and gift the hospital to Capital & Coast District Health Board (CCDHB).

That is a stunningly generous gift to the families of Wellington.

The current hospital was the first of it’s kind in New Zealand, and each year more than 30,000 children passed through its doors, including the 4000 or so babies born there annually.

Existing child hospital and outpatient services – currently housed separately – will be merged in the new hospital.

“This amazingly generous offer will have such a big impact on the children we look after, their families and our staff,” CCDHB chair Andrew Blair said.

With an eight month old son we have been fairly frequent users of the maternity and outpatients wards.  The service has been great, but having everything in one modern location will make things easier.

The Herald further reports:

“Dunajtschik has said his philosophy is that people are blessed with a sound mind and body can look after themselves, but those born with or suffering illness and disability need our support.”

Coleman said Dunajtschik, aged in his 80s, had been a substantial benefactor in health, sport and education for 40 years, but this donation was unparalleled.

A good philosphy.

Dunajtschik said he was often asked why choose to build a hospital.

“It is no secret, nor commercially sensitive, that a large part of my income is from government departments as my tenants.

“One particularly large department punctually pays their rent every month throughout the year, but they have the curious habit, at the end of the year they ask for one-third back. It is not called a rent refund. It is a three letter word.

Tax!

“Needless to say, thoughts had crossed my mind – how to stop this money-go-round?

“Suggestions like contacting some creative accountants in Panama were quickly dismissed…the suggestion [of a hospital] appealed to me on the spot.”

Again incredibly generous. And one of the benefits of removing the tax rebate cap on charitable donations a few years ago.

The other day I heard the Prime Minister say that in the last year the New Zealand economy created an extra 10,000 jobs a month.

This sounded far fetched to me. I knew we had reasonable job growth but surely not 10,000 a month. So I checked and indeed the Prime Minister was wrong.

In fact the job growth was 11,500 a month!

In March 2016 there were 2,402,000 in employment and in March 2017 there were 2,539,000. And 81% of the new jobs were full-time.

That is:

• 137,000 net new jobs in 12 months
• 11,500 new jobs a month
• 2,600 new jobs a week
• 66 new jobs per working hour (40/week)

So think about this. You attend a one hour meeting. By the end of that meeting, there would have been (on average) 66 more jobs than at the start of the meeting.

For a country with such a small population, 11,500 new jobs a month is remarkable. That is the equivalent of the US growing by 800,000 jobs a month.

As a percentage that is a 5.7% increase in the number of jobs in a year. Here’s the growth rate for jobs for some other countries:

1. NZ 5.7%
2. Germany 2.9%
3. Ireland 2.9%
4. US 1.8%
5. OECD 1.6%
6. Australia 1.6%
7. Sweden 1.5%
8. UK 1.4%
9. Canada 0.7%
10. France 0.6%
11. Finland 0.5%

Can’t you just imagine them all sitting together in Cabinet!

Stuff reports:

NZ First leader Winston Peters says he is “calling out” the Greens and warning of “consequences”, after its co-leader Metiria Turei referred to his immigration stance as “racist”.

Good coalition building there.

And she implied that would not be blank cheque of support for a Labour-NZ First Government.

“But any government that we support or are part of has to be genuinely progressive. We are not going to accept an inferior deal.”

However, she did rule out working with the National Party to form a government.

Which means they have no leverage at all. Morons. If they are unwilling to deal with National, then they have absolutely no choice but to allow a Labour – NZ First Government to govern – well unless they want to force another election on New Zealand which would see them wiped out.

But it was her comments about Peters’ immigration policy that saw him bite back.

Turei said he was “on a roll at the moment, which is I think a very racist approach to immigration, for example. The worst of his rhetoric is coming out.”

In reply, Peters said he had a warning for the Greens: “Don’t call NZ First racist – an allegation that is spurious – and think there won’t be consequences.”

I find it interesting that the Greens can say “Oh yeah they are a racist party but we’ll work with them anyway”.

It is quite possible Donald Trump will be re-elected in 2020 if he suceeds in casting the media as his opposition, and some of the media continue to behave as they do.

The Herald reports:

#CNNBlackmail was the top trending Twitter topic Wednesday morning, thanks to the efforts of a furious Trump internet, which had concluded that the user’s apology was forced by a “threat” from CNN. Their evidence? A story CNN itself published, detailing its attempts to contact and identify the anonymous Reddit user ahead of their apology, whose offensive posting history suddenly became part of a national news story.

The part of the article that infuriated the Trump internet – and people on both sides of the political spectrum, who questioned the ethical standards of the network’s decision – had to do with how CNN described its reasoning for not identifying the Redditor by name. Reporter Andrew Kaczynski wrote that CNN had spoken with the person behind the account, and would not identify the user because “he is a private citizen who has issued an extensive statement of apology,” who had promised not to continue flooding the internet with offensive memes.

But, he wrote, “CNN reserves the right to publish his identity should any of that change.”

Like many online controversies of this era, it’s difficult to explain exactly what’s going on here in one smooth narrative. The ethical question of whether a news outlet should withhold the identity of a private citizen who posted extremely offensive things online on the apparent condition that they behave better in the future is one that resonated well beyond the bubble of the Trump internet.

A real own goal by CNN.

ACT have published their party list. The top 10 are:

1. David Seymour
2. Beth Houlbrooke
3. Brooke van Velden
4. Bhupinder Singh
5. Stephen Berry
6. Stuart Pederson
7. Anneka Carlson
8. Shan Ng
9. Sam Purchas
10. Toni Severin

It is a very youthful list, with a diverse range of backgrounds ranging from small business owners to a former professional cricketer. Half of the top ten happen to be women (no quotas in ACT).

I hope ACT get enough votes that they get more than just David Seymour. At just 2% of the vote they’ll get three MPs.

Stuff reports:

A new law means Customs will no longer be able to demand that people entering the country hand over the passwords to their devices without reasonable cause.

Currently, Customs can stop anyone at the border and demand access to any of their digital devices.

But ACT leader and sole-MP David Seymour has secured a change to this in the new Customs and Excise Bill, which is soon to have its second reading.

Officers will need to have “reasonable suspicion” or belief of offending. There will be no appeal process. …

“Unrestricted power to demand people’s passwords and search their files is an affront to civil liberties, and it will inevitably lead to violations of privacy,” Seymour said.

“Customs practices are simply out of touch with modern reality. In the past, people would only pack a suitcase with a few paper documents, but younger generations often travel with all their personal files. Meanwhile, if a genuine criminal is determined to keep incriminating files, they’ll do it on cloud storage, not on their personal device.

“This will prevent countless New Zealanders and visitors from facing intrusive and unjustified searches.

“Customs’ powers to examine and access electronic devices will be restricted through a two-stage search threshold. This means that Customs will only be able to search a device if they have a reasonable suspicion or belief of offending under the Act,” Customs Minister Nicky Wagner said.

Well done David Seymour on getting this change.

Well worth watching this 12 minute video of the US Chief Justice speaking not as a justice or a lawyer but as a parent.

The comments just after the 10 minute mark are especially good.

Gordon Campbell writes:

In reality, Labour’s working class hero was anything but a champion of the battlers. While in Parliament, he was the attack dog for his corporate cronies in Sealords against the company’s environmental critics. In the dying days of the Clark government, he was Labour’s ministerial go-between for a high profile immigration decision involving a wealthy Chinese migrant and party donor. (Hardly the best credentials for a future New Zealand First MP.) Despite the Greens being the only realistic ally that Labour had in forming an alternative government of the centre left, Jones spent almost as much time in publicly attacking them as he did in attacking the National government, which eventually rewarded him with a cushy bureaucratic job. Female voters have always shunned him. Now he’s back, standing for New Zealand First in Whangarei, and looking for his next ride on the gravy train.

Yet… the media are also back at it, and are still touting the magic sympatico that Jones allegedly has with the voters.

Please, no. There’s never been any ballot box evidence of this pixie dust. Jones entered Parliament in 2005 on the Labour list. He stood (unsuccessfully) for Labour in Northland in 2008 but was rescued again by his list position. In 2011, he lost to Pita Sharples in Tamaki Makaurau, and was rescued once again by the party list. When the Labour leadership came up for grabs in 2013, Jones came in third and last place of the three candidates on offer. Only months before the last election, Jones resigned from Labour to take up National’s kind offer of a well-paying sinecure. (So much for blokey loyalty to his mates.)

In sum, there’s absolutely no evidence to support the theory of Shane Jones, blue-collar hero and irresistible vote magnet. 

I think the vast majority of New Zealanders will have never heard of Shane.

There are other implications. Given Jones’ track record of animosity to the Greens, this should finally put paid to the hopes still being entertained (in some parts of the centre-left) of a Labour/Greens/New Zealand First alternative government. The air kisses that Andrew Little has been sending to Jones in recent days (eg praising him for the ‘intellectual grunt’ he will supposedly bring to NZF) won’t change that reality. Winston Peters was never going to play third wheel in any such centre-left arrangement, and with Jones now set to cruise back into Parliament via a high ranking on the NZF party list, the Greens’ chances of playing a major role in any alternative government would now appear slim to non-existent.

At this point, the most credible chance of a change of government would be if a Labour/NZF pairing can get the numbers to enter into a formal coalition with the Greens situated outside government, but lending support on confidence and supply. For the Greens, this would mean propping up a new government that on issues like law and order, welfare and immigration would be barely distinguishable from the current government. It would also leave the Greens scrambling for a few gains on the environment – provided such measures would be OK with Shane Jones.

It is fascinating that the Greens are more than willing to put NZ First into Government, despite NZ First constantly demonising them, yet they refuse to even consider any sort of co-operation with National.