Stats NZ has released the growth in GDP in each region. This is nominal so not comparable to national GDP growth which is real. However it does allow us to see how much each region has grown economically.

In order of best to least best:

1. Southland 11.0%
2. Canterbury 10.6%
3. Marlborough 10.3%
4. Waikato 10.1%
5. West Coast 7.8%
6. Tasman/Nelson 7.8%
7. Northland 7.7%
8. Taranaki 7.2%
9. Hawke’s Bay 6.4%
10. Otago 6.3%
11. Gisborne 5.9%
12. Manawtau-Wanganui 5.6%
13. Bay of Plenty 5.4%
14. Auckland 5.1%
15. Wellington 4.4%

Good to see so many provinces doing well. including Northland.

Bill English has announced:

The operating balance before gains and losses (OBEGAL) for the seven months to January was a surplus of $77 million, driven by higher than expected tax revenue and lower than expected operating expenses, Finance Minister Bill English says.

“This is the first time the Government’s books have shown a part-year surplus since 2009. Although it is too early to say whether we will have a surplus for the full 2014/15 year, this result demonstrates the strides we have made in improving the Government’s finances,” Mr English says.

The OBEGAL outturn was $712 million better than the $635 million deficit forecast by the Treasury in the Half-Year Update (HYEFU) in December, but was still $120 million below Treasury’s Budget 2014 forecast, undertaken at the start of the fiscal year.

This is somewhat promising but does not guarantee a year end surplus. The surplus is the difference between two very large numbers of around $80 billion each. The Government has pretty good control of its spending, but tax revenues are quite unpredictable.

However the first part-year surplus since the GFC is still a good thing.

The Herald reports:

“When life is a misery, you give your patients something,” my 100-year-old mother, Aileen Breslin, told me in December, as she lay in her hospital bed, suffering intolerable physical and mental pain.

“Why can’t you do the same for me?” She was absolutely right. When a life is no longer worth living, I bring that life to a painless end. I’m legally permitted to do because I’m a veterinarian – and the life I am ending is that of anything other than a human.

But now, as of last week, if you live in Canada, as my mother did, and thanks to the Canadian Supreme Court’s resounding 9-0 judgment, people in her circumstances will be allowed to ask their physicians to help end their misery too. I can’t help wondering if we should have the same right elsewhere. …

Mum was telling me she had decided to die. This time, she was only just ahead of her time. Thanks to that Canadian Supreme Court ruling, people in her circumstances will now be able to do so, painlessly, of their own free will, simply by asking for and taking pills, without putting themselves or their families through a needlessly protracted and inevitably uncomfortable end of life.

But Mum did not have that luxury. Her only option was to refuse food.

I get angry when I read about people who go through such suffering because our laws do not allow them to have an assisted suicide, when they are not capable of ending their own lives.  When one is in agony, you should be able to choose to end your life.

I blocked two morons on Facebook yesterday who were claiming the 1080 poison scare was a false flag operation run by the Government to distract attention from Hager’s latest allegations. I thought only the most demented nutters would actually believe that.

But it seem they have a high profile ally. Stuff reports:

NZ First leader Winston Peters was first to fly a conspiracy theory up the flagpole by questioning the timing of the announcement during the Northland by-election.

Need more be said.

The Herald reports:

Protests have caused the Government to discuss a council decision allowing the destruction of old kauri and rimu trees. …

Yet Ms Barry said claims the kauri was up to 500 years old were not proved, and a PhD scholar said the tree was actually 100-200 years old.

The rimu was reportedly 300 years old.

I’m against blanket protection orders by Councils for thousands of trees. I support the current law which is a Council must pick out individual trees for protection if they are of very special value.

If the kauri is 500 years old, then I would say it should have been protected by the Council. However their failure to do so should not prevent the land owner from exercising his legal rights. If people want to save the kauri, they can buy the land back off the owner.

Labour MP and former party leader David Cunliffe offered to join Mr Tavares up the kauri.

That may increase the number of Labour MPs wishing to cut the tree down.

Stuff reports:

Last week, stuff.co.nz published an article regarding New Zealand businessman Stephen Jennings, and his business activities in Kenya and Russia.

The article may have been interpreted as implying that Mr Jennings’ business activities in those countries were unethical and open to criticism. It also implied that Mr Jennings was a business rival to Bill Browder, a well known American businessman, and wanted to destroy him. 

Stuff.co.nz accepts that none of these statements or implications have any factual basis or legitimacy. No attempt was made to contact Mr Jennings prior to publication, and we accept that had we done so, the article would not have contained those statements or implications.

We accept that Mr Jennings is a respected and successful figure in the banking and business worlds, and we deeply regret any suggestion to the contrary. Accordingly, we unequivocally retract the factual errors and misleading implications contained in the article, and unreservedly apologise to Mr Jennings for any distress suffered by him and his family as a result.

On the please don’t sue us grovel scale that is around a 9.5/10.

I didn’t see the original article, but it must have been really bad.

RNZ reports:

It was confirmed today that Fonterra and Federated Farmers were sent a letter each in November containing a blackmail threat and powder.

It tested positive for concentrated forms of 1080. No more correspondence had been received from the letter writer since.

Officials stressed that in the interim Government officials and the industry had been working to ensure all the threatened products were safe. This had included a new testing regime, which was designed to detect 1080. To date, 40,000 tests had been carried out and no 1080 had been found. The testing would continue.

Police were following a number of lines of inquiry but were now going public for help.

It may well be a hoax, but with some anti 1080 nutters, you can never be sure. I hope they find the person or persons responsible and they get sent away.

Stuff reports:

Prime Minister John Key has sent a shot across Reserve Bank governor Graeme Wheeler’s bows, effectively warning him not to keep interest rates unjustifiably high as inflation heads lower.

But Key stopped short of calling for an interest rate cut at the bank’s monetary policy review on Thursday.

He noted that while the bank had flexibility it should set monetary policy so that inflation returned to the midpoint of its 1 per cent to 3 per cent target band. …

Key said oil prices were coming down, the exchange rate was still reasonably strong and imported inflation appeared low. In light of that “it’s not an option for the bank to raise interest rates”.

That’s not a decision for the PM. While he is correct that there is no reason for interest rates to go up, he is the PM – not a financial commentator. It is a bad look to have the PM state that something is not an option for the Reserve Bank, because it can look like pressure on them to do as the Government wants.

Naz Shah has been selected as UK Labour’s candidate for Bradford West. She writes of her life to date:

I was only 6 when my father abandoned my mother with two young children and pregnant with a third when he eloped with the neighbour’s 16 year old daughter. I remember been thrown into the back of a taxi with black bin liners full of our belongings and packed off from the family home on Hartman Place to my granddads home in Kirkham Road. We never really saw the end of black bin liners over the next few years as we moved from squalor to squalor, 14 times in less than 2 years, from back to back houses where the toilet was outside to rat infested damp houses where we lived and slept in just one room.

But this turned out to be better than so called stability:

We finally had a home, 251 Legrams Lane, purchased with the sale of my mother’s wedding jewellery but in someone else’s name, Azam’s name. My mother’s attempt to provide her children with the security of a home came at the expense of being abused by Azam over years. A man that she thought would save her children from an uncertain and insecure future, little did she know he would be the exact opposite. My mother had sent me to Pakistan at the age of 12 when she felt I was at risk of his abuse. When my younger sister was growing up and my mother felt she was now at risk, and following years of anti- depressants, failed suicide attempts and feeling desperate and destitute she snapped.

She killed the man who abused her.

Her mother was sentenced to 20 years jail.

I remember how my days and nights became one, how my world was turned upside down, how I became a mother to my two siblings who were 11 and 13 at the time. Up until then the worst I had known personally was my own forced marriage through emotional blackmail when I was just 15 years old whilst in Pakistan. I never went back to schooling and my first job was at Society Linen hire on Usher St, the laundry service for the local hospitals. I moved on to packing crisps at Seabrook’s which was a huge improvement in job and wages. By January 1992 I wanted to go back to college after leaving my own husband who used his fists to communicate and now this.

So her childhood is 14 houses, being abused by her step-father, her mum going to prison, looking after her younger siblings, a forced marriage at 15, domestic violence and then working in a laundry.

This doesn’t mean she’ll be a good MP, but it does at a minimum mean she has battled huge adversity and come through it.

As she is standing against the repulsive George Galloway, I can honestly say I hope she wins.

One News reports:

A philanthropist’s “extraordinary generosity” has seen New Zealand’s largest-ever private land protection announced today.

Music producer Robert ‘Mutt’ Lange of Soho Property has gifted 53,000 hectares of land in central Otago through a partnership with the Queen Elizabeth II National Trust.

Incredibly generous.

Robert “Mutt” Lange is Shania Twain’s former husband.

The four open space covenants cover land on Motatapu, Mount Soho, Glencoe and Coronet Peak Stations, bordered by the Shotover River and the Cardrona Valley.

The agreement permanently protects the natural values and human history of the landscape, but also allows for public access with 21 tracks and trails.

One of those awful foreigners.

Some people advocate banning any foreign purchase of land. Do you think a NZer would gift 53,000 hectares to the public?

The order paper is here.

Oral Questions 2.00 pm – 3.00 pm

1. 1. ANDREW LITTLE to the Prime Minister: Does he stand by his comment that “no one’s arguing that we’re not working as fast as we possibly can” to cut ACC levies given ACC, the Ministry of Business, Innovation, and Employment, Treasury, the Employers and Manufacturers Association, and Infometrics are among those recommending bigger cuts?
   2. NUK KORAKO to the Minister of Finance: What reports has he received on the economy and particularly on New Zealand’s creditworthiness compared to other developed economies?
   3. Dr RUSSEL NORMAN to the Prime Minister: Does the Prime Minister still stand by his answer that he will resign if the GCSB has conducted mass surveillance of New Zealanders; if so, what is his definition of mass surveillance?
   4. JONATHAN YOUNG to the Minister of Transport: What update can he give on Government investment in bridge infrastructure in Northland?
   5. GRANT ROBERTSON to the Minister of Finance: How would the Crown’s fiscal position be affected if ACC’s recommended reductions to its Work and Earners’ levies for 2015-16 were implemented?
   6. SIMON O’CONNOR to the Minister for Communications: What recent reports has she seen on growth of fibre connections compared to other OECD countries?
   7. PHIL TWYFORD to the Minister of Transport: Does he think his “deep commitment to Northland” has been demonstrated by the Government cutting spending on Northland roads by $36 million or nearly 30 percent over the last five years?
   8. RON MARK to the Minister of Transport: Does he stand by all his statements?
   9. EUGENIE SAGE to the Minister for the Environment: Will he be taking any steps to increase protection for indigenous trees and vegetation in the proposed changes to the Resource Management Act?
   10. MELISSA LEE to the Minister for Small Business: What reports has he received on confidence from small businesses in the New Zealand economy?
   11. TRACEY MARTIN to the Deputy Prime Minister: Does he consider the flag referendum to be a judicious use of taxpayers’ money?
   12. SUE MORONEY to the Minister for ACC: What is the purpose of the Work and Earners’ levies charged by ACC?

National: Four patsies on the economy, Northland bridges, fibre connections and small businesses

Labour: Four questions on ACC (x3) and Northland roads

Greens: Two questions on GCSB and RMA

NZ First: two questions on Transport Minister standing by his statements and the flag referendum

Government Bills 3.00 pm – 6.00 pm and 7.30 pm to 10.00 pm

Drug and Alcohol Testing of Community-based Offenders and Bailees Legislation Bill – first reading continued

The bill amends the Bail Act 2000, the Sentencing Act 2002 and the Parole Act 2002 to enable the Department of Corrections and the New Zealand Police to require community-based offenders and bailees, if they are subject to conditions prohibiting the use of drugs or alcohol, to undergo drug and alcohol testing to ensure compliance with these conditions.

Introduced: July 2014

The debate has up to 50 minutes remaining.

Weathertight Homes Resolution Services Amendment Bill – first reading

The bill amends the Weathertight Home Resolution Services Act 2006 to remove any doubt about the validity of the criteria, deem certain claims determined as ineligible to be eligible, and to widen the definition of qualifying claimant.

Introduced: February 2015

The debate can last up to two hours.

Radiation Safety Bill – first reading

The bill replaces the Radiation Protection Act 1965 to “provide an enhanced legislative framework for radiation safety that responds effectively to the range of technological, scientific, and organisational changes that have occurred over the last 5 decades” and also enables “ratification of key relevant international instruments.”

Introduced: December 2014

The debate can last up to two hours.

Taxation (Annual Rates for 2015-16, Research and Development, and Remedial Matters) Bill – first reading

The bill is an omnibus bill that significantly amends ten different tax acts,especially in the area of child support.

Introduced: February 2015

The debate can last up to two hours.

Everyone has been assuming that tying MPs pay increases to the average for the public sector will see them fall. I was assuming that. So I went to the Stats NZ QES survey to work out how much less pay MPs would have got over the last six years, if this new law had been in force the whole time.

To my surprise I found that the public sector have had larger (%) pay increases than MPs have!

If backdated, this law change would have seen MPs get even larger pay increases.

I’ve gone back through the QES surveys since 2009 and calculated the average public sector increase in ordinary time earnings for each year. This is the column called “New Law”. It is used by comparing the average for the four quarters to June with the average for the four quarters the year prior.

The right hand column is what the total package increase was by the Remuneration Authority under the existing law. The actual salary increases are sometimes more than this, but that is because of the decreased value of some personal benefits. That package approach continues under the new law – so this is comparing like with like.

So over the last six years the Remuneration Authority has only increased MPs packages by an average of 1.7% a year.

The average increase in the public sector, according to QES, is 3.1% a year.

So while this law change will reduce the MPs pay increase for this year, it could well result in them gaining larger increases over the long term than they would have under the current law.

The Remuneration Authority has in fact been very restrained in the last six years.

There is some benefit to the new law. It is a clear formula, that people can relate to – MPs get the same as public servants. However the history of the last six years is that this could well mean MPs end up with larger pay rises. Now I don’t have a problem with this, but I’m not sure this is what people realise the impact of the law may be.

I was one of a few thousand gullible Kiwis who thought the idea of a monster slide was fun, and forked out a few scored dollars for two tickets for the Wellington one. It has been postponed due to the lack of a venue, but it is becoming clear I think that we will never get our refunds (I asked two weeks ago).

Stuff reports:

Businesses claim they are owed tens of thousands of dollars from a controversial water slide event that left a trail of unhappy customers and upset volunteers and workers. …

Structural Support & Panel NZ Ltd (SSPNZ) director John Manson said he was owed $34,215 for 40 tonnes of scaffold supplied for the Sumner event. …

Christchurch youth development worker Lolina Avia supplied 32 volunteers, aged 15 to 25, to help set up the Sumner event. She invoiced Templeton through an organisation for a $2300 donation, including GST.

She said there were also outstanding wages for four staff members she supplied. They worked 11.5 hours each at a rate of $19 an hour.

A $1600 transaction from Templeton’s bank account had gone through to Avia’s account for the volunteers but she said it was still $700 short. …

Gayl Johnstone, owner of the 0508Tempfence Christchurch branch, said Trill Productions was still to pay $1725 for 500 metres of temporary fencing in Sumner despite giving the impression it would pay in advance. Her invoice was emailed before the event, on January 30. …

The Nelson and Christchurch city councils said the event still owed $2118 and $750, respectively, but the payments were not overdue. …

Two of his companies, Illuminate Youth Events NZ Ltd and Illuminate Global Ltd, were liquidated on February 5. 

According to the liquidator’s report, Illuminate Global Ltd was left owing creditors $158,000. 

Looks like this will head the same way, so I suspect Wellingtonians who paid in advance will never get a refund.

This makes me think how could one avoid in future losing money like this? Doing a credit check on a company is not worth it for an individual buying tickets. Perhaps the suppliers left out of pocket should have done so?

If Templeton’s activities result in another company being liquidated, with huge debts owing, should regulatory authorities ban him from being a director?

The Herald reports:

The Nigerian militant group Boko Haram has announced it is joining Isis (Islamic State) by apparently releasing an audio statement swearing allegiance to the movement’s leader.

The declaration means Isis can now add swathes of northern Nigeria to a self-declared caliphate that already stretches across Syria and Iraq.

This year analysts noted the growing sophistication of videos released by the Nigerian group, suggesting the two jihadist networks were growing closer.

In an audio message posted on the group’s Twitter account, it said: “We swear our allegiance to to the Caliph of the Muslims [Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi], and all hear and obey him in times of difficulty and prosperity, in hardship and in ease, and to endure being discriminated against …”

The declaration of allegiance is the latest by a series of violent jihadist groups, including several in Libya.

But Boko Haram’s 51,800 sq km of territory, from where it is able to launch attacks with ease, makes it one of the most important factions now flying the black Isis flag.

When ISIL says they wish to establish a global caliphate, they are not just saying it as a PR stunt. Their aim is not regional power.

Meanwhile Labour’s policy continues to be that one can defeat ISIL by improving agriculture in Iraq!

“I contend that for a nation to try to tax itself into prosperity is like a man standing in a bucket and trying to lift himself up by the handle.” 

– Winston Churchill

The quote of the week is brought to you by the New Zealand Taxpayers’ Union. To support the Union’s campaign for lower taxes and less government waste, click here.

3 News reports:

Vernon Tava, a Green Party co-convenor in Auckland, is reported to be throwing his hat in the ring to be the party’s new male co-leader.

Mr Tava has decided to stand for the leadership.

His campaign site is here. He seems to think that the Greens should aspire to more than being a prop party for Labour:

Are we a party of the left with environmental credentials (Red-Greens)? Or are we a true party of sustainability – environmental, social, cultural and economic – willing and able to be an independent entity with a decisive influence on government policy? The left-right spectrum is only one aspect of political action and if we limit ourselves to only being able to deal with one end of that spectrum we are far less able to move the focus of politics to genuine sustainability. The urgency of local and global ecological crises demands that we work across political lines. The Greens need to be an independent political axis around which governments turn.

He sounds far too sensible to get elected.

To many younger voters (and potential voters) left and right hold little appeal; we will only win them over with evidence-based, problem-solving approaches rather than coming from a position of ideology.

Evidence-based decision making? he’s doomed!

Stuff reports:

The Government has rolled out the pork barrel for its Northland candidate Mark Osborne, pledging to replace 10 one-lane bridges at a cost of up to $69 million.

Osborne made the announcement today together with Transport Minister Simon Bridges.

Bridges said funding for the projects would mainly come from the National Land Transport Fund.

Mainly? Where else would the funds come from?

If the 10 bridges all have a positive BCR (benefit to cost ratio) then they are worth doing – regardless of whether there is a by-election. But do they? The Government should release the business cases for them.

Bridges said their replacement was the logical next step from the development of the Puhoi to Wellsford Road of National Significance.

He said the National-led Government had invested more than $750m in state highway and local roading projects across Northland over the last seven years. 

“And that doesn’t include Puhoi to Wellsford which is a $1.75 billion commitment. Today’s announcement shows National remains committed to improving roading in Northland, as well as the links to Northland, to ensure the continuing growth and prosperity of the region.”

It is worth remembering that the policies of Labour, Greens and NZ First is to not build Puhoi to Wellsford, and transfer much of the money for roading into rail.

On the 5th of March Brian Edwards blogged:

Brian and Judy think Ken is a great guy. Their haircuts are testimony to the fact that he is a brilliant hairdresser. So are all his staff.

Anyway, a couple of weeks ago Ken had an unexpected visit from a a representative of the ACBDD, the Auckland City Business Discouragement Department.

Ken was cutting a nun’s hair at the time. (No, this is not a joke!)

Now no self-respecting hairdresser will abandon a client in the middle of a cut. And certainly not a nun, God forbid. So Ken continued with his work, while the ACBDD official talked to the back of his head. Ken was in serious breach of a local body by-law.  

Drugs? Pornography? Sly grog? Dodgy Massage? No, the small table and two small chairs which you can see in the photograph just outside Ponsonby Hair . Ken must remove them from the footpath immediately or face the consequences, which could include shutting up shop. …

A day or so later the agent returned with reinforcements in the form of a second high-vis-jacket-toting colleague. Ken had three days to comply. If he did not, his officers would forcibly remove the small table and two small chairs and charge him for their trouble and subsequent cost of storage.

This is a great example of the petty bureaucracy that people hate. Any local body that has a culture that allows this, needs a radical culture change.

Luckily Brian’s blog had an impact, and the Council backed down:

Following yesterday’s post “Shock! Horror! Local Hairdresser breaks law with small table and chairs!” Ponsonby hairdresser and all round good guy Ken Beguely,  owner of Ponsonby Hair, this morning received a gracious apology from an Auckland Council manager, an assurance that no further action would be taken to compel him to remove the small table and two chairs outside his salon, and an invitation to contact the manager at any time if he had further problems.

A small victory for the little guy. We need more of them.

I haven’t had the time to keep up with has been going here at Kiwiblog but I imagine the topic of the cartoon has been discussed already.

Hillary Clinton’s email server at her home is now a real problem for her as Gary Varvel observes.

© Gary Varvel – Found at Real Clear Politics

Now I’m not a Clinton hater and think that Bill Clinton despite his obvious faults was a better POTUS than G W Bush and Barack Obama. But that said the Clinton’s would have to be the equal of Richard Nixon when it comes to playing dirty, tricky, sneaky political games to keep ahead. If a GOP Secretary of State did what Hillary has done and set up their own email server they would have been crucified by the US media.

As for Hillary as a presidential candidate, she looks more and more like in political terms she’s over the hill. If I was a Democrat I’d be concerned.

Stuff reports:

Most schools are catering better for students with special needs, according to a recent report.

The ERO report released yesterday, Inclusive practices for students with special needs in schools, found almost 80 per cent in its sample were “mostly inclusive”. The Ministry of Education says inclusive practice is when schools “adapt to fit the student rather than making the student adapt to fit the school”. …

The latest report ranked 78 per cent of schools mostly inclusive, up from 50 per cent in a similar report from 2010. The proportion of schools with few inclusive practices dropped 19 percentage points in the recent survey.

But CCS Disability Action warned that the two reports were not directly comparable because the 2010 report focussed solely on students with high needs while the latest report covered all students with special education needs.

Still seems to be good progress, and definitely going in the right direction.

Some interesting changes in the public satisfaction with public services, comparing 2014 with 2007. Considering the lid on staff numbers, and the limited extra funding, the SSC survey on public satisfaction is proof you can do more with less.

• ECE provider quality up from 73% in 2007 to 81% in 2014
• Public school quality via ERA up from 68% to 73%
• Outpatient service quality up from 69% to 73%
• Police non emergency responses up from 62% to 66%
• Emergency services up from 73% to 79%
• ACC services up from 65% to 70%
• Housing NZ up from 68% to 73%

I only noticed this chart on Friday, but Andrew at Grumpolie looked at how the polls and polls of polls did, compared to the election result.

The Herald Digipoll was best overall. Of the poll of polls, the methodology I used did fairly well.

Not on the chart is how iPredict did. It was very accurate in 2011, but in 2014 was well out with a total error of 12.3%.

Overall the public polls under-estimated support for National and NZ First, were slightly too high for Labour and way too high for the Greens.

Andrew also made the point:

The landline bias/non-coverage issue is a red herring – the polls that came closest only call landlines. It’s just one of many potential sources of error that pollster’s need to consider. Here’s another post about this, if anyone is interested in finding out why it’s not such a big deal.