Archive for August, 2005

TV3 Poll

August 31st, 2005 at 9:24 pm by David Farrar

The TV3 poll (normally the one which has National lowest) tonight has National back in the lead.

The poll was done from 25 to 30 August so most of it doesn’t take account of National’s Treaty policy released on Monday, which could move things even further.

On this poll a Labour/Green/Maori/Progressive coalition would only have 59 seats. National/NZ First would have 59 seats and United would have two. Who thinks United would choose a Labour/Green/Maori/Progressive option?

Regardless of who you support, isn’t it a fun campaign to have the lead swapping backwards and forwards so often. This is what campaigns should be about!

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August Blog Stats

August 31st, 2005 at 3:53 pm by David Farrar

It’s the last day of the month, so it’s blog stats time.

If all those who want to be included can e-mail david at farrar dot com with their number of posts for August and if applicable their number of comments, I’ll do the usual summary tomorrow.

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Blocked by Net Nanny

August 31st, 2005 at 11:55 am by David Farrar

Heh. Rodney Hide just called me from the airport to say that he tried to catch up on the day’s events by reading my blog. But alas the computer would not let him through, warning him my site was blocked by Net Nanny for inappropriate content.

If I’m blocked, I presume G-Man must be also with his list of the 100 rudest place names in Britain.

Rodney was in an good mood, on the basis of the Epsom poll done by Capitol Research (Australia). I know nothing about that company or methodology so can’t express an opinion as to reliability. It will be interesting to see public polls in seats like Epsom and Tauranga.

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Colin Espiner’s Blog

August 31st, 2005 at 8:39 am by David Farrar

I am still underwhelmed by the party leader blogs on Stuff, but have just discovered that Press Political Editor Colin Espiner also has a blog.

Colin has caught onto blogging. It isn’t just about rehashing stories or press releases. He gives a first person, on the scene, perspective of the campaign trail.

Now if Fairfax could managed a dedicated RSS feed for their blogs, then I could get automatic updates for them.

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Not even the Police believe the Police stats!

August 31st, 2005 at 8:04 am by David Farrar

Frontline police have said they don’t believe their own statistics on the level of crime in New Zealand. Remarkable!

A Senior Constable in Christchurch said he had criminals in his car admit to carrying out 100 car break-ins in a night, but only three complaints arose and hence were recorded..

A man linked to 15 burglaries in Manurewa admitted to carrying out 60 burglaries – most had not been reported.

One officer said anecdotal evidence suggested victims who had not suffered a great trauma did not report the crime because they did not think it was worth the effort. This is why a focus on the violent crime statistics is useful because they are the ones most likely to always be reported.

A frontline Auckland officer said it was discouraging to hear people say there was no point ringing police to report a crime saying “All people see is traffic enforcing and you get a lot of decent people in the public getting tickets for minor infringements.” and “There’s no need for us to be standing out in the road in the middle of the day clocking someone who’s doing five or 10 kilometres over the speed limit. Those resources would be better solving crime.”

Most New Zealanders would agree with the officer. What a pity George Hawkins does not.

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The best Cathy story yet

August 31st, 2005 at 7:38 am by David Farrar

Cathy has her best story yet. What happens when you are having an affair with two married men, and they are both at the same restaurant?

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The great ACT auction

August 31st, 2005 at 7:02 am by David Farrar

Act are fund-raising in an innovative way – they are auctioning off various memorabilia and goodies on Trade Me.

You can’t purchase their policies, but you can get the artwork for the policies. However the real highlight has to be a drive in the Alan Gibbs designed Aqua Car or Aquada.

Now thing if every party were to auction off goodies as fund-raisers. WHat could they auction off:

* Greens: A signed copy of Keith Locke’s essay supporting the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and also to throw in a signed copy of his essay opposing the US liberation of Afghanistan

* NZ First: A copy of the parliamentary library issue card showing Winston Peters having borrowed Mein Kampf

* Labour: A Helen Clark signed painting

* National: A John Key designed tax calculator

* United Future: A St James bible signed by every MP except Marc Alexander

* Progressive: A 18 foot by 12 foot portrait of Jim Anderton

* Maori Party: A copy of the Treaty of Waitangi with the words “living partnership” added on in small tidy writing in the same font as the original.

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Even MPs are human

August 31st, 2005 at 6:37 am by David Farrar

A sad reminder that MPs can crack under the stress, like anyone else, with John Brogden trying to kill himself last night – obviously as a result of the scandal which forced him from the state leadership. Further allegations have come out also.

A more pleasant reminder of MPs being “normal” was the Holmes interview on Prime last night with Helen Clark and Peter Davis and Don and Je Lan Brash. I thought both couples came across well and talked very naturally about their relationships.

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Back on the agenda

August 30th, 2005 at 1:04 pm by David Farrar

Sometimes a Labour MP is very honest. Take Russell Fairbrother:

” Redistribution of wealth had been off the political agenda for decades. Labour put it back on …”

The only problem Russell is Labour is now taking money from people on $45,000 and giving it to people who earn $120,000 if they happen to have kids.

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The Public Address Gallery

August 30th, 2005 at 11:39 am by David Farrar

After my gender confusion with Che Tibby of Public Address, David Slack has helpfully posted photos of all their bloggers.

My ratings are:

Russell Brown 9/10
Damien Christie 7/10
Jolisa Gracewood 9/10 (if I was gay)
David Slack 8/10
Fiona Rae 6/10
Che Tibby 9/10
Graham Reid 8/10
Tze Ming Mok 6/10
Keith Ng 7/10

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How not to become Premier

August 30th, 2005 at 11:22 am by David Farrar

You’re 36, leader of the opposition, and the long serving state premier has just retired. Pundits say you may be Premier before you are 40.

However you then go to a partyhosted by the Australian Hotels Association, and do the following things in ascending order of stupidity:

* Have a quick half dozen beers
* pinched Sunday Telegraph journalist Justine Ferrari on the bottom
* propositioned Sun-Herald journalist Angela Cuming.
* and finally referred to the wife of the former Premier as a “mail-order bride”

Helena Carr, wife of the popular Bob Carr, is Malaysian born and has lived in Australia since 1965. She has been married to Carr for 30 years and runs a division of a multi-national employing 1,000 people.

So it is no surprise that he has resigned. He keeps on digging blaming Alex Hawke, the national president of the Young Liberals for his downfall. No he didn’t make you act like a pillock.

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ISP Survey

August 30th, 2005 at 8:47 am by David Farrar

Stats NZ have done their first survey of ISPs in NZ. InternetNZ helped suggest questions. Some interesting results:

* 1.24 million customers of 66 ISPs with 80% of customers being residential.
* 65% of accounts are dialup (which suggests 81% of residential customers are still on dialup)
* 90% of ISPs offer spam filtering, with 77% doing it for free and 13% charging for it
* 86% offer virus filtering
* Only 36% offer content filtering
* The largest barriers to growth were the strength of competition followed by the telecommunications regulatory environment. Cost of international bandwidth also a big issue.

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Tactical Voting

August 30th, 2005 at 7:52 am by David Farrar

Che Tibby has a message for Labour supporters in Tauranga. To use her own words “give your candidate to the blue team, and your party vote to the red team”.

Her rationale “it’s bye bye Whinny while helping the commies get back into power”

She also notes “I hear from people back home that Clarkson is a top bloke. One who might actually do something for his electorate.”

I think it is highly likely NZ First will make 5% and be in Parliament. However if Peters lost Tauranga then they would have no safety net. And that would then give a huge incentive to actually behave responsibly and not hold the country to ransom if he does hold the balance of power. This is very much in New Zealand’s interest regardless of whether it is a National or Labour led Government.

UPDATE: Che is actually male. Read her as him.

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Labour’s response

August 30th, 2005 at 7:44 am by David Farrar

It has been one of those rare days – enjoying listening to National Radio.

It is clear that Labour is scared shitless about how to respond to the latest proposals from National. Clark refused to go on radio at all, and her only comment is that it is nothing new. This is of course wrong because there is new policy. Clark just desperately doesn’t want to be on the wrong side of public sentiment like she was after Orewa.

So instead they sent Mallard on, and you could almost hear the tears at National Radio when he agreed with much of what National proposed and said they also had concerns over some of these agencies and have been reviewing them also.

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Maori Party

August 29th, 2005 at 7:03 pm by David Farrar

Many on the left, including Jordan Carter, have claimed for months that the Maori Party is “a party of the conservative right, which would be much more comfortable in coalition with parties … National and ACT – than it would be dealing with the progressive elements in National and with the bulk of the Labour Party.”

Now seeing the Maori Party’s Hone Harawira has just compared Don Brash to Adolf Hitler, would people like to revise their predictions?

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Defending Orewa

August 29th, 2005 at 6:55 pm by David Farrar

The Green Party Blog has labelled Don Brash; Orewa speech as doing “more to damage our social cohesion and race relations than any other in many years” and “more dangerous than any of Winston Peters

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We are all New Zealanders

August 29th, 2005 at 5:07 pm by David Farrar

National spelt out its view of New Zealand today being that the Treaty did not create a partnership but was the launching pad for the creation of one sovereign nation with many peoples.

Specific pledges are:
* Make membership of the Waitanagi Tribunal a full-time, not part-time, job so hearings can be acclerated
* Increase capacity of the Office of Treaty Settlements
* Appointing a number of specialist direct negotiators to work with claimant groups
* Removal of references to the “Principles of the Treaty of Waitangi” from 39 statutes with priority being the RMA and the Local Government Electoral Act
* Review the five specialist Maori agencies

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Winston in trouble?

August 29th, 2005 at 8:51 am by David Farrar

The NZ Herald speculates on trouble for Winston, noting the strong challenge from Bob Clarkson in Tauranga, and the significant fall in the party vote in recent polls.

Clarkson winning Tauranga and a party vote of 4.9% for NZ First would be too much to hope for I suppose :-)

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How about three hundred strikes and you’re out?

August 29th, 2005 at 8:42 am by David Farrar

Many states in the US have a three strikes and you’re out law, which means that after three convictions you go to prison for most of your life.

Now this is somewhat over the top, but at the other end of the scale we have the case in NZ where Stacey Spinks has 340 convictions and has just been sentenced again to jail – but for only two years which means he may be out in eight months.

His latest crimes were committed the day he got released from prison last time.

So the question has to be asked – why is he not sent away for the maximum penalties available under the law so he is never released?

I mean surely after 300 convictions we can safely assume he is beyond redemption? Think of the misery he has caused to hundreds of families by being allowed to rob them time and time again?

Why do we tolerate a justice system that lets someone out after 300 convictions, when it it beyond doubt they will be offending again on the day of their release?

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The Haka

August 29th, 2005 at 8:33 am by David Farrar

Is there anyone who doesn’t like the new All Black Haka?

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Dom Post Editorial gets it wrong

August 29th, 2005 at 8:27 am by David Farrar

I am amazed that an actual editorial in the Dominion Post can make such a huge error.

The editorial says in reference to the hammer road rage case “Incredibly, he was given name suppression because a close relative was alleged to have an important weekend sports fixture. Oh, and his father was not well.

This is absolutely incorrect. Judge Harvey denied name suppression as seen in this article where he is quoted as saying “he would not be prepared to grant suppression”.

The defendant is appealing Judge Harvey’s decision, and hence this has triggered temporary name suppression until the High Court hears the issue. Temporary name suppression has to be given otherwise an appeal is pointless.

One expects the odd mistake in stories written with the rush of a deadline, but for an editorial to have such a massive mistake in it is very rare.

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Bob Jones on Minor Parties

August 29th, 2005 at 8:16 am by David Farrar

Bob Jones still knows how to write provocatively. In his column in the HOS he states:

These Alliance misanthropes don’t need votes; they need pre-frontal lobotomies, or at the very least, a damn good flogging for having such a bleak outlook on life.

Next up, a couple of scruffs took turns chanting how they would wipe out the bureaucracy, taxes et al – these being the Libertarians. No lads, you won’t do that, or indeed anything with your lives, unless you toss away your Ayn Rand bibles and get on with actually living.

I await Spanner and PC’s responses :-)

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Sunday on Donna Awatere-Huata

August 28th, 2005 at 7:53 pm by David Farrar

Fascinating Sunday programme on Donna Awate-Huata. Key revelations to date:

* Allegation her legal aid application to defend the fraud case, was in itself fraudalent as she did not disclose some assets

* Wi Huata challenged Richard Prebble to a fight, when he challenged Donna over the allegations.

* Education officials were so scared of Wi Huata they would not meet with him.

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SST Poll

August 28th, 2005 at 8:39 am by David Farrar

Today’s SST poll has Labour leading National by just 1%. They have divided the 850 sample poll into pre and post tax cuts and found pre tax cuts policy Labour led by 7%, and afterwards National led by 6%.

However the poll won’t have covered Thursday’s confusion over forestry policy.

The only prediction I think I have made about pre-election polls, is that I expected to see the lead change hands several times, and it has been.

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Own goal!

August 28th, 2005 at 8:24 am by David Farrar

The SST has some leaked emails which show some ACT and BRT figures were giving advice to Don Brash on how to mount his leadership coup.

There is a massive irony is all this, as the rise of Don Brash has been seen as the biggest factor in the collapse of support for ACT. Ouch. Also the actual policy positions of National under Brash have been more towards the middle – almost no state assets sold, no housing NZ market rents, keeping the 39% tax rate etc.

A lot of people on the centre-right tend to take an interest in both ACT and National. Even though it is against National’s rules, I know many people who are or have been members of both.

When ACT had their leadership ballot last year, there were also Nats involved in at least one of the leadership campaigns.

A longer story with details of some of the emails is here.

I note the SST keeps using the term the “hard right” to describe some people. This just a silly term. Do they ever refer to left wign MPs as the “hard left”?

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