Perry v Obama
August 16th, 2011 at 2:00 pm by David FarrarTexas Governor Rick Perry could well win the Republican nomination. Already former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has pulled out after a poor showing in Ohio.
The Atlantic looks at Perry and Obama on jobs:
If Texas Governor Rick Perry is the Republican nominee for president, the 2012 election will have a striking parallelism. President Obama would ask voters to overlook a bad national economy for which he’s not fully responsible. The Republican challenger would ask voters to credit him for an impressive state economy for which he is also not fully responsible.
There are two themes here. One is that the likelihood of a politician to take ownership over an economy is directly proportional to the health of the economy. The other lesson is that even as political leaders can try to guide an economy, they are ultimately victims, or beneficiaries, of its underlying fundamentals.
The Texas miracle is, like so many miraculous things, complicated upon closer inspection. Texas accounted for 40 percent of the nation’s new jobs since June 2009. This impressive statistic is the result of geology, geography, history, and politics.
Texas is only 8% of the US population, so 40% of new jobs is an impressive figure.
Texanomics is well-suited to a recession stemming from a financial crisis. When consumers’ balance sheets are hurting, they seek out low cost-of-living. That’s Texas. When companies don’t have access to credit, they hire cheaper labor. Texas again. When young couples look to start a family, they’re drawn to affordable housing, nice weather, and industries that hire: Energy and aerospace in Houston, health care and military in San Antonio, tech and education in Austin, and communications and more energy Dallas.
And the politics:
That the stimulus was a PR-failure says more about the strength of the downturn than the weakness of the administration. But that’s an economist’s distinction, not a campaign platform. The president’s message to voters asks them to see the successes of his policies by imagining how bad things would be without them. In a rotten economy, Obama has to run on a hypothetical. The governor’s economic message is simpler. It’s reality. It’s “Look at Texas.” Perry isn’t entirely responsible for the state’s economic record. But he’s a record worth claiming.
Perry is at 39% to win the Republican nomination on In Trade. Next is Romney on 32%.
Obama’s price for re-election is at 52%, down from 56% a few weeks ago.
August 16th, 2011 at 2:03 pm
I quite like Perry, through I would be happy if Michelle Bachman gets the nomination too. Perhaps they may team up if they are the only two left standing at the end. Would be a good match.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
Is the US ready for a woman president yet? I’m not so sure.
But I agree with Lee01 – at this very early stage, a Perry/Bachman ticket could well be a winner for the Repubs. But there’s a long way to go – it’s far too early to call anything.
Texas is also profitting from the disillusioned businesses in California – people are leaving there in droves for Texas and other states that don’t have such massive economic problems.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 2:27 pm
On the business of what Obama and Perry inherited.. a closer look would say that Obama inherited at least four decades of Govt overreach and spending, and promptly set out to break all previous records on same.. so he made things worse.
Perry inherited prudence in legislation and spending and despite the financial panics of the last few years he did *nothing* imprudent.. so Texas and its governor have prospered.
If Perry went to Washington he would have to make the hard changes to the national economy to make it more like Texas.. and its anybody’s guess whether he could do it or indeed have the skills to turn that Titanic. But I have no doubt he would do a better job than Obama.
JC
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 2:32 pm
The US has a major problem with descendants of low skill labourer’s from Mexico going on to being a net drain on the economy. California’s economic competitiveness is going to continue to decline as a result. http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112167023
http://www.frumforum.com/the-future-costs-of-todays-cheap-labor
Perry is weak on that issue, even criticising Arizona for trying to enforce immigration laws.
http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/conscience-conservative/2011/aug/15/rick-perrys-immigration-problem/
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 2:32 pm
“Perry is weak on that issue, even criticising Arizona for trying to enforce immigration laws.”
Sadly true, thoug he’s good on many others.
The dark horse in all this is Ron Paul. It will be interesting to see how his campaign goes.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
DPF, your commentator sounds very much to me like a closet Obama supporter who doesn’t want to admit that Governor Perry’s four basic rules were indeed largely responsible for the success story which is Texas.
What were they again?
1 Don’t spend all the money
2 Keep taxes to an absolute minimum
3 Keep regulations to an absolute minimum
3 Tort reform
When consumers’ balance sheets are hurting, they seek out low cost-of-living. (Low state taxes)That’s Texas. When companies don’t have access to credit, they hire cheaper labor. (Did anyone ask why labour is cheaper in Texas than it is in California which too is overloaded with illegal immigrants?)Texas again. When young couples look to start a family, they’re drawn to affordable housing, nice weather, and industries that hire:(low taxes, no out of control unions)
Nor did I notice any reference to the efforts of the BAJA to absolutely kill off the local oil exploration industry.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
@ConanOBrien on Twitter:
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
The Republicans have a bit of a problem. They need a candidate who is electable, but at the same time one who is acceptable to their more extreme supporters. Perry is probably not quite rabid enough for the Tea Partiers and probably doesn’t have broad enough appeal. He does tick some core conservative boxes – intelligent design, executes lots of criminals, believes Israel was given by God to the chosen people, prays for rain, doesn’t believe in anthropogenic global warming – so maybe he does have a shot.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 2:38 pm
If Palin runs, all she has to do is start nailing Perry on immigration and he is in trouble. Also, as she has also recently pointed out, Alaskan Governors have actual power and responsibility over the Alaskan government, whereas the Texas Governor is almost as powerless as the NZ Governor General – about the only thing they can do is veto legislation.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 2:42 pm
“intelligent design, executes lots of criminals, believes Israel was given by God to the chosen people, prays for rain, doesn’t believe in anthropogenic global warming”
All good points in his favour.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 2:48 pm
Good point Blair, one that has been made in comparing Perry with Romney, who had more actual executive power as a governor.
The immigration point may be a little unfair to Perry, who supports active border policing rather than the fence.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 2:49 pm
Already former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty has pulled out after a poor showing in Ohio.
LOL:
At this stage, Pawlenty is my pick for the Republican nomination.
http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/05/a_good_start_for_pawlenty.html
I’ve had the view for a while that Pawlenty could win the nomination, as other candidates get knocked out, and this graph shows he is positioned quite well.
http://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2011/02/the_gop_field.html
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 3:08 pm
Not Ohio.
Iowa. Specifically, at the Ames Straw poll, which is a Republican Party fundraiser. You get to vote in it if you’re a republican from Iowa and you donate $35 to the Republican party.
On occasion, this has involved candidates paying the $35 on behalf of voters so they could do okay. It’s pretty much the least scientific poll ever.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 3:10 pm
***The immigration point may be a little unfair to Perry, who supports active border policing rather than the fence.***
He deserves to be scutinised on that point given he criticised the enlightened and brave move of Arizona to address illegal immigration.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 3:11 pm
…“intelligent design, executes lots of criminals, believes Israel was given by God to the chosen people, prays for rain, doesn’t believe in anthropogenic global warming”…
All he needs now is to confess that the burning bush at the bottom of the garden speaks to him & he’s got it covered.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 3:13 pm
The GOP will pick Perry over Ron Paul. A short sightedness I hope they learn from.
Perry exudes the trappings of wealth and privilige most Americans are far from experiencing.
He’s a huge picture of the wealth divide and the GOP still hasn’t sen the real picture. Exactly what US politicians are accused of.
Watch the popular vote go to Paul.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 3:20 pm
The economy is always number one in American politics. With the USA economy expected to be properly flushed down the dunny next year, Obama would be the first president in the history of the USA to win the Presidency with the economy in deep recession.
Vote:I do not like his odds.
August 16th, 2011 at 3:23 pm
Sorry, I’ve misled you in my earlier comment:
You don’t have to be a Republican to vote in the Straw Poll. Indeed you don’t even have to be old enough to vote (just old enough so that you will be old enough to vote at the election next year.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 3:38 pm
Yeah but he’s enabling sharia law in Txs and the indoctrination of the kids.
Vote:No he’s a nother Bush, they’ve had two of those, America needs people of principle.
Shit we need America to have a leader of principle!
August 16th, 2011 at 3:48 pm
Right-wing, religious, Christian, Conservative, shit the left will have kittens. Time to hang some garlic around the neck and sacrifice a few virgins to the Lord of Darkness.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 3:53 pm
I’m looking forward to seeing Doonesbury start covering the GOP race.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 3:59 pm
Lee01 said…
The dark horse in all this is Ron Paul
This is what Ron Paul stands for.
The Austrians Were Right
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 4:01 pm
Courage Wolf – At least DPF had the guts to make a prediction.
Its easy to nit pick from the sidelines and after the fact.
I kinda like Rick Perry. Will have to research him further.
Not happy with the chick and her weird religious views.
“If you’re involved in the gay and lesbian lifestyle, it’s bondage. It is personal bondage, personal despair and personal enslavement.” — Senator Michele Bachmann
Really Michelle? FFFFFFFFREEEEEEEEEEEEEEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAKKKKKKKKKKKKK
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 4:38 pm
The job growth in Texas has probably something to do with the oil industry. The finances of Texas are not in good shape I understand. But Perry will be competitive. Whether the US will be ready for another conservative Texas Governor is another thing.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 5:01 pm
Remember – mikenmild does not believe that there’s left-wing bias in the media, which is why Doonesbury is so little known over here in NZ compared to this guy here and here (I particularly liked the “Things That Never Happened” cartoon).
Not that it need concern me much nowadays in the age of the Web – after two decades of having that left-wing hack shoved in my face by New Zealand newspapers and magazines (with Tom Scott as the trusty local backup) – I can now get Michael Ramirez at this site also (he draws some for each site alone as well as for both – this one is “Jobs Created”).
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 5:13 pm
Texas alone of the States is booming despite undergoing one of the worst droughts in its history and PERRY is entitled to claim some credit for the prosperity..PAUL’s foreign policy would be a disaster though it may appeal to the cross party anti military brigade. BACHMAN appeals to me, she has stated she will put things right even if it means she gets chucked out after 4 years. The one that has impressed me most is Herman CAIN even though he has little chance. He would make a good vice president especially to Bachman.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 5:16 pm
tom
Never heard of Ramirez. Fortunately our beloved DomPost brings daily doses of Doonesbury and Dilbert.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 5:48 pm
Perry exudes the trappings of wealth and privilige most Americans are far from experiencing.
That is bullshit in the extreme. Perry grew up in poverty, and is not actually that wealthy. You clearly know nothing about him. Are you thinking of Romney?
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 5:50 pm
***PAUL’s foreign policy would be a disaster***
Hahaha, as opposed to the US foreign policy of the last 10 years that has p1ssed away trillions in Iraq & Afghanistan, as well as leading to the deaths of many westerners for what benefit?
If Western countries wish to contain the terrorist threat simply stop allowing in large numbers of Muslims. Invading their countries and trying to turn them into western style democracies is futile.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 5:50 pm
Well I think he’s very sharp and funny – but I must admit that your comments on this site mine even deeper veins of comedic genius.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 6:00 pm
I also love this Ramirez take on imagining Obama substituted into a famous “W” moment:
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 6:35 pm
Perry is the real deal. A business colleague in Texas is one of his top fund raisers and part of his inner circle. This article is a complilation of comments from his defeated opponents from the TEN elected offices he has won http://www.texasmonthly.com/2011-09-01/feature7.php
Vote:If I were Mitt Romney and Barak Obama I’d be very afraid.
August 16th, 2011 at 7:18 pm
I’d love to see Allen West run…
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 7:44 pm
Perry I think is best choice. No perfect candidate here, so that’s what you get. On Immigration – basically I see him saying Arizona can do whatever they like, they’re another state. In Texas, no votes (and frankly not a good idea) in trying to chase illegal immigrants. Frankly, they’re one of the big reasons that the US is such a dynamic economy.
As for him being religious…..like a good proportion of the USA? They’re different than us that way.
Small govt conservative? I’ll believe that when I see it.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 8:46 pm
@Fletch
“I’d love to see Allen West run…”
Yep, realy like the guy.
Vote:Not enough experience (yet) though.
Give him 4 more years.
August 16th, 2011 at 9:00 pm
FFS, another Christian fundie joins the contest. Will be fun to watch the contest between Perry and Bachmann. At least he’s not quite as much of a fruit loop as she is.
But if the GOP really want the Presidency, they have to do better than this. Nominating out and out bigots like these two (or Palin) will just hand it to Obama again.
Not that his performance is all that flash either. The US FPP electoral system is moribund – to the extent that vast numbers of Americans don’t even bother to register to vote, because whoever wins, nothing changes.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 9:22 pm
toad – Palin and Perry have the same policy on gay marriage as Obama. Is Obama a bigot too?
You also forget that Palin vetoed a bill removing benefit rights for same sex couples in Alaska, so I’m not sure what sort of bigotry you are trying to ascribe to her.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 10:04 pm
Scrutinising the medias non scrutiny of Ron Paul….hilarious. Paul has become the ’13th floor of a hotel’.
http://www.facebook.com/sharer/sharer.php?u=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.thedailyshow.com%2Fwatch%2Fmon-august-15-2011%2Findecision-2012—corn-polled-edition—ron-paul—the-top-tier%3Fxrs%3Dplayershare_fb
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 11:12 pm
“Palin and Perry have the same policy on gay marriage as Obama. Is Obama a bigot too?”
No, Obama is just your average lying politician who’s concerned about winning enough electoral college votes to be president again. It’s doubtful he’s even a Christian.
Palin in Perry are worse: they’re true believers.
Weihana.
Vote:August 16th, 2011 at 11:20 pm
Lee01 – “I would be happy if Michelle Bachman gets the nomination too”
You mean that hypocrite that cries socialism while sucking a quarter million off the state tit in farm subsidies? Hell, why do I even need to mention her hypocrisy. She’s an obvious loony tunes regardless.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 4:14 am
toad
Vote:“another Christain fundie joins the contest” – typical comment by an uninformed likely athiest kiwi who absolutely does not get America. Jimmy Carter was a “Christian fundie” – for crying out loud he was a lay Southern Baptist preacher. George W’s brand of Methodism was distinctly evangelical. Americans believe in God (over 85%) and attend church regularly (well over 50%) – those statistics alone when compared to the NZ equivalent (33% and 10% respectively) tell the story of how religion plays in politics in America. Open and proud belief in God and public attendence at church would be the kiss of electoral death in NZ but in Presidential politics and for statewide office in almost all states outside the secular corridors of the west and east coasts, it is an electoral asset. There are limits and prejudices for sure – for years it was the CW that a Catholic couldn’t be President and JFK shattered that ceiling. Then it was no Jew could realistically run for the Presidency and Liebermen on Kerry’s ticket in 04 broke that hoodoo. Now we have two Mormons running and whilst Huntsman is a very long shot, Romney is the nominal front runner (not for long IMO) and polling well against Obama and it is likely that if he loses the GOP nomination it will be more because of his record and policy positions than his religion which is how it should be.
August 17th, 2011 at 5:48 am
“Americans believe in God (over 85%) and attend church regularly (well over 50%) – those statistics alone when compared to the NZ equivalent (33% and 10% respectively) tell the story of how religion plays in politics in America.”
Not sure is shows anything other than how stupid 85% of Americans are.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 7:59 am
big bruv
Vote:To assign stupidity to a belief in God (however you define him/it) is to assume most of the world’s non Chinese population is stupid. Non believing Europeans, Australasians and North Americans comprise a relatively small percentage of global population. To make an assumption like that is stupid in and of itself and reveals the sort of haughty arrogance that I thought was the preserve of the secular left.
August 17th, 2011 at 10:26 am
# big bruv (9,229) Says:
August 17th, 2011 at 5:48 am
“Americans believe in God (over 85%) and attend church regularly (well over 50%) – those statistics alone when compared to the NZ equivalent (33% and 10% respectively) tell the story of how religion plays in politics in America.”
Not sure is shows anything other than how stupid 85% of Americans are.
I’m interested in your comment that 85% of Americans are stupid. Would you care to explain how someone living in a small country at the bottom of the world can say that about the quarter of a billion inhabitants of the worlds most powerful country. Some proof of your assertion would be good.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 11:29 am
US GDP $46,000
NZ GDP $26,000
Makes us look a bit stupid.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 11:38 am
I’m not sure which is more stupid: equating comparative levels of religious belief with stupidity or equating comparable income levels with stupidity.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 11:55 am
Interesting fact. 50% of Americans have a below average IQ.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:01 pm
Yes Scott, and 40% of all sick leave is taken on Mondays or Fridays.
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 12:29 pm
***Frankly, they’re one of the big reasons that the US is such a dynamic economy.***
Total bullshit, look at California.
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=112167023
Vote:August 17th, 2011 at 2:46 pm
Belief in religion certainly isn’t ipso facto a sign of stupidity, but advocacy of Young Earth Creationism is another story. YEC is incompatible with virtually all of the natural and social sciences. I hope the US media gets some discussion going about Perry’s apparent belief that the world is six thousand years old, and his choice of a young earther to run Texas’ education board.
Vote:August 18th, 2011 at 11:46 am
Belief in religion does not mean the person is stupid *in general* but belief in religion itself *is* stupid. Believing in the sky father and his magical palace in the clouds is no better than believing in a magical tea pot orbiting between Earth and Mars. The fact that many people believe in the sky father does not make the belief any less stupid. Believing in a magic tea pot would not become wise if many people started believing in it.
These types of beliefs are stupid because they have no basis. They are purely invented by human imagination. That doesn’t mean it is stupid to entertain the *possibility* of what might be, but to assert it is fact on no evidence, just “faith”, is stupid.
Vote: