Public Polls May 2014

June 1st, 2014 at 7:00 am by David Farrar

may14polls

That trend for Labour is very pronounced!

The newsletter summary is:

Curia’s Polling Newsletter – Issue 77, May 2014

 There were just four political in May – a Roy Morgan, a One News Colmar Brunton, a 3 News Reid Research and a Fairfax Ipsos.

The average of the public polls has National 19% ahead of Labour in May, up 5% from April. The current seat projection is centre-right 62 seats, centre-left 52 which would see a centre-right Government.

In Australia PM Tony Abbott’s approval rating has plummeted in the aftermath of the Budget. In one month it has gone from a net -10% to a net -29%. Two months ago he was 6% ahead as Preferred PM, and now is 11% behind Bill Shorten.

In the United States little change in the US this month, despite the scandal over veterans’ care. 

In the UK Labour has a narrow 3% lead over the Conservatives but Ed Miliband continues to have awful approval ratings. The UKIP was the big winner in the Council and European elections. Scottish independence polls show the no vote ahead by 7% to 12% with an average 10% gap.

In Canada the Liberals and Conservatives are projected to be almost neck and neck in terms of likely seats won.

The normal two tables are provided comparing the country direction sentiment and head of government approval sentiment for the five countries. A new third table has been added, comparing approval ratings for opposition leaders in the four countries that have one.

We also carry details of polls in New Zealand on the Budget, immigration, house prices, interest rates, spending, marriage and smacking plus the normal business and consumer confidence polls.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail.  If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

 

 

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26 Responses to “Public Polls May 2014”

  1. igm (1,413 comments) says:

    Just keep the good news rolling. There is a new aspiring Labour MP circulating our area, I cannot await the day he pulls into our driveway . . . he will get a real rural reception!

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  2. Mobile Michael (411 comments) says:

    Shearer quit when the polls showed this trend. Is it time for Robertson to take over?

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  3. duggledog (1,340 comments) says:

    Bye bye Labour and your rag tag bunch of misfits. Another three years in opposition for you. Hopefully during those three years they can find a decent leader who will be able wipe away all those nasty radicals that have sprung up in their garden, NZ will be the better for it.

    igm – Labour flunkeys never come canvassing here. I think they see the scary looking cattle, get confused with the farm gate latch and drive straight on.

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  4. mandk (818 comments) says:

    @ Mobile Michael,
    Cunliffe has been much worse for Labour than Shearer.
    Cunliffe has cost Labour 5 percentage points since he was elected leader in September 2013, and the trend is still downwards.

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  5. JC (907 comments) says:

    Meantime local radio is saying Greens Russel is going to announce new policy likely to be scrapping the ETS and replacing it with a direct carbon tax. Also supposedly announce plans to make it easier to go with National after the election.

    On the first, I applaud any idea on removing the corrupt ETS and if its ever shown that carbon is indeed the planet killer then a dirct tax is of course the way to go.

    With the second.. well.. I guess the Greens are seeing themselves shut out of a Labour Govt in favour of the IMPs.

    JC

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  6. Judith (7,537 comments) says:

    Unfortunately, although it looks good for National, it is still a long way out – and anything could happen. National was polling better than this the week before the last election and the results did not reflect the poll results number wise.

    National will win again, but only with a rainbow coalition pieced together at a high cost to the electorate.

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  7. kiwi in america (2,434 comments) says:

    IMP has introduced a wild card. I suspect that whilst Harre/Harawira/Dotcom will mostly take votes off the Greens and Labour, $3m will enable some successful outreach to unmotivated youth voters to make the trip to the polling station. Watch for a massive early voting push – a method used with some success by the Democrats in the US. Key can easily neutralize this by ensuring the likely 2-3% vote for the Conservatives is not wasted by making the East Coast Bays accommodation with Colin Craig. The usual media critics will cry but Key can point to the IMP arrangement and this will mute opposition. The Conservatives nationwide party vote will easily exceed the net new centre left vote the IMP will pay to flush out. Labour have shot all their major policy shots – they’ve varied from being damp squibs to being too esoteric and wonky for low information voters to get excited (the big tool policy). National need to exhibit iron internal discipline. Key and Eagleson will be scouring the Ministers who in turn will be scouring their Ministries and Departments for potential scandalous material to flush it out fast or kill it off at source. There will be no cup of tea in Epsom as Key will conduct an even more cautious formal campaign. The economic good news will continue to roll however Judith is right – anything can happen but voter perception on National’s handling of the economy and Cunliffe’s shiftiness is pretty well baked in so it would have to be a real doozy of an issue to upset the apple cart.

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  8. duggledog (1,340 comments) says:

    Judith -

    ‘National will win again, but only with a rainbow coalition pieced together at a high cost to the electorate.’

    I would venture there would be a far higher cost if the other rainbow coalition were elected. You have been keeping up with recent GIMP policy announcements haven’t you? Free healthcare for teens, free uni, 6 mnths PPL, etc etc

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  9. big bruv (13,228 comments) says:

    KIA

    “The usual media critics will cry but Key can point to the IMP arrangement and this will mute opposition.”

    Bollocks it will. Comrade Campbell and the rest of the stinking left wing media will be all over this, they will slate the government while turning a blind eye to what the fat German and mother fucker are doing.

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  10. Judith (7,537 comments) says:

    @ duggledog (1,202 comments) says:
    June 1st, 2014 at 8:21 am

    I have been saying for quite some time that no matter what happens, this next election will cost us all. I am fully aware of the election bribes from all sides – they mean nothing to me (I should add, just a ‘Claytons surplus’ meant also).

    When it comes to substance – yes National has it over the rest – but National are not going to lead alone – and the cost of having to entice others into a coalition is going to dissolve that substance – rendering them weak.

    The other parties in a coalition does have one positive side – it will drag the country down with great hilarity.

    I simply do not believe anything good will come out of this next election except for the fact that it will provide proof of what a mess the current MMP system is.

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  11. G152 (144 comments) says:

    So Cunliffe and Gimpy are dog tucker in the polls.
    Just wait for the greens to find common ground with a set of racists and watch the bottom fall out of their polls

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  12. duggledog (1,340 comments) says:

    I don’t think it will be that tight at all. Look at the numbers and how durable the lead is – and this is a government going for a third term remember? The paint is supposed to be well and truly flaking off by now but it isn’t so any comparisons to the last election are pointless.

    It’s entirely different. And the Nats haven’t even rolled out the big lollies yet (they are bound to), or started the advertising campaign that will scare the shit out of kiwis, I’m guessing something like the iwi / kiwi campaign will be on the way, or the debates in which Key will smash Cunliffe to pieces going on current form.

    The Labour / GIMP lot have shot their bolts already and of course all they have is scandalous accusations that nobody outside the beltway gives a f*** about, and massive spending which the vast majority of kiwis, having had it tough in recent years, will see for what it is – reckless and unaffordable.

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  13. Paulus (2,497 comments) says:

    igm

    We have two new local Labour aspirants – neither will get into the seats – they are women of course, replacing the previous Labour men who have disappeared – they have top University degrees – real chardonnay socialists by reading their bios.
    The local papers are all over them and their impeccable credentials.
    Assume they are looking for the 2017 Labour Lists by the sound of it.

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  14. Judith (7,537 comments) says:

    @ duggledog (1,203 comments) says:
    June 1st, 2014 at 8:42 am

    I agree with much of what you say – but there are still enough days for anything to come out – regardless of what goodies National might offer – third term governments are traditionally not easy to achieve, because as well as the good, their mistakes are foremost in peoples minds.

    Should national need Maori for a coalition, that is going to come at a huge cost. I recently attended a hui in which several spoke about the current coalition. Maori are not ‘on the whole’ happy. Whilst the stats might say things have improved for them, very few of them are feeling it. And it is what they are feeling which will determine how they vote. There were some very harsh things said about the claims of having to ‘sit at the table’ to get what they want. One very influential person saying they’ve been sat there for six years, and achieved nothing. With the loss of the two leaders who had great mana, I am not sure anyone can count on Maori in this next election unless they are prepared to actually offer solid deals – which will not please others.

    Polls at this stage are a guide – anyone getting complacent is very foolish.

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  15. JC (907 comments) says:

    KIA.

    “Key can easily neutralize this by ensuring the likely 2-3% vote for the Conservatives is not wasted by making the East Coast Bays accommodation with Colin Craig.”

    I wonder about that.. Key’s polling could be telling him the public don’t accept the deals anymore and there’s better mileage in going it alone. He’s extremely rational and might feel the public will turn out better if the choices are made a bit more stark.

    Perhaps more importantly his waiting to date has flushed out Hone, KDC in a dirty deal.. he can hardly campaign on that deal if he’s going to do something similar with the Conservatives. I think he’ll wait a lot longer before he gives us any real hints as to which road he’ll take.. Harre could solve the whole thing for him with a few badly chosen decisions over the next month or three.

    JC

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  16. Nostalgia-NZ (4,904 comments) says:

    I think it’s too easy to consider that this is more of the same. Key has done some hard work navigating the Oravida situation (retracting Collins), engaging with the electorate in such a way that it shows he listens (talking about the immigration/house sales aspect here) while meanwhile the economy shows itself to be in safe hands, the fact that the Nats are now showing leftward leaning characteristics is a card straight out of the JK pack and he gets support for it where many other leaders of the right would not have in the past. I begin to think there will be a reasonable to good amount of people out voting this election and it might be for the reason that it could be argued that not voting for the nats is in fact a vote for the unknown. This Government deserves credit for its work in Corrections and accepting changes from the Law Commission re Privacy Law, the same can be set about delving into internet Law all of which are medium to long term issues that needed attention – there is one other, my pet interest, The Exercise of the Royal Prerogative which, however, I suspect there will be work on in the future and perhaps as the result of a particular JR if it goes ahead.

    On a day to day basis I’m personally very interested in the progress or otherwise of the Internet Party and who may be behind so many ex United MPs being involved – Mc Carten looks like the candidate on that. Else where there has been the classic ‘approval’ of now ‘good’ baddies, such as Sue Bradford and the adoption even in the left of an outrage against what the Internet Party is doing. The most ironic thing about that to my mind is that the outrage is simply a misunderstanding of the human condition that if people can get more they will indeed try as is their democratic right. Additionally portraying Maori as needing to be ‘loyal’ to others views and not their own is myopic. They will do as they wish in as many variations as possible which I think is something JK understands and possibly admires.

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  17. hj (6,348 comments) says:

    Labour (convieniently for National) has a foot in both camps (nationalist/internationalist). We live in the era of globalisation, some in Labour are closet open borders sympathiers. They will simply bless the loathes and fishes and they will multiply exceedingly.
    http://www.3news.co.nz/Labour-not-anti-immigration—Cunliffe/tabid/370/articleID/346076/Default.aspx

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  18. hj (6,348 comments) says:

    28 May 2014 at 7:23 am

    DC was playing down imigration on the news last night….i like DC but he,s sending such mixed signals you have to wonder whose showing him how to blow a whistle……I know i,m being blunt but I feel this is a sad road to go down……

    [lprent: This commenter has been on my watchlist as a probable right astroturfer for some time. He parrots anti-cunliffe lines with no argument underlying them. You'd think that they could find someone with better tactics. ]
    :roll: :shock: :lol:
    Reply

    One Anonymous Bloke 2.1
    28 May 2014 at 7:30 am

    I know I’m being blunt but your concern sounds false and insincere, and not only that, you seem to be parroting right wing lies.

    Polly wanna cracker?
    Reply
    David H 2.1.1
    28 May 2014 at 8:03 am

    Cunliffe on Brekkie TV3 this morning finally got the message out that the immigration thing was a beat up. And all started because Blinglish lost the chapter on housing.
    Reply
    karol 2.1.1.1
    28 May 2014 at 9:11 am

    Glad to hear it. Can’t find the video of it online.
    Reply
    David H 2.1.1.1.1
    28 May 2014 at 9:58 am

    Here you go Karol.

    http://www.3news.co.nz/Labour-not-anti-immigration—Cunliffe/tabid/370/articleID/346076/Default.aspx
    Reply
    karol 2.1.1.1.1.1
    28 May 2014 at 10:04 am

    Thanks, yes. Just found and watched it. Good interview – though his focus was on everyone owning their own home – nothing on state housing and affordable private rentals.

    http://thestandard.org.nz/open-mike-28052014/

    Never mind 62.4% think we have too high immigration

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  19. FeralScrote (57 comments) says:

    Interestingly enough ,in the time I have been eligible to vote, 35 years, I have only ever had one politician knock on my door and that was a NZ First candidate 15+ years ago and I can`t even remember his name.
    If anyone turns up this year they`ll get the same bumsrush I reserve for the Jehovahs Witless.

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  20. duggledog (1,340 comments) says:

    All very good points Judith. I had to laugh at your post ‘Maori on the whole are not happy’

    They’re never happy! Which I find so odd because individually most Maori are generally happy-go-lucky types.

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  21. Judith (7,537 comments) says:

    @ duggledog (1,204 comments) says:
    June 1st, 2014 at 9:39 am

    Good point, and it would make an interesting study on ‘group identity’ as opposed to individual identity. Do we behave ‘as a whole’ in a manner that we believe we should – rather than how we actually feel? I’m a female – I try to portray the ‘whole’ when I’m in a group as being a caring person because that is how women are meant to be, but individually, do I really give a stuff??

    You could be on to something there!

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  22. ChardonnayGuy (1,131 comments) says:

    Apropos the Aussie polls, David, are any of the pollsters providing a choice of Liberal leadership contenders and then seeing what would happen if (say, post-November) a (probably) adverse Victorian state election result triggers a Canberra Liberal caucus room leadership spill? If so, how well is Turnbull polling in such comparative polls?

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  23. gravedodger (1,511 comments) says:

    Malcolm Turnbull is a lamb thinking he would like to be a wolf when he grows up.

    If he is the answer it was a blindingly stupid question.

    Abbott is only months into the job in Canberra trying to come up with palatable solutions to one of the most daunting deficit black holes to confront any newly elected leader.

    Victoria state parliament is tribal labor and for the Liberals to get the top table is a very hard ask, holding it even harder.

    Shorten is a union thug with so much riding on the royal commission I wonder if he has to change his undies on the hour every hour.

    The Federal labor mob have spent enormous capital on the Hockey budget and have so far not fired a single shot as to what they would do to turn around the projected seven hundred billion accumulated deficit predicted by many economic forcasters in the coming decade.

    The very rapid burn off of the mining boom has left the rapid expansion of the bureaucracy and the multiple social program lolly scramble indulged in by KRudd, Gillard and then KRudd again has left roadside IEDs on every track Abbott, Hockey and co are trying to negotiate.

    Throw into that mix an upper house where members with around 2% of the primary vote end up in a position to paralyze the House of reps with mind boggling morphing and disintegrating factions including the everyday more exposed lightweight mining magnate Clive Palmer and Abbott would be considered sane if he blew his own brains out.

    Christ on a bike, Palmer rode into Canberra last week in his c1970 Roller only to have to call a mechanic in to restart the bloody thing. If you think our demented dwarf is a threat to our democracy have a squiz at Clive Palmer, even he dosn’t have a bloody clue who he is or what he stands for.

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  24. Andronicus (219 comments) says:

    In Australia, the demise of Tony Abbott is totally predictable.

    In the Budget, his government broke more promises than a dog has fleas.

    There are rumours, growing stronger daily, that Abbott may be challenged for the leadership of the LNP.

    But the party has so little talent in its team that it would be hard to find a single substitution.

    Malcolm Turnbull, perhaps?

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  25. Andronicus (219 comments) says:

    gravedodger:

    There are four Royal Commissiosns, at least that I know of, sitting currently in Australia.

    One is into corruption in trade unions.

    The second is into sexual abuse of children in organisations such as churches and the Salvation Army. Interestingly Abbott, a staunch Catholic, is busy pulling so much funding from this Commission that its President has resigned and the enquiry might have to close down.

    The third is into the pink batts insulation programme of the Rudd government which resulted in the accidental death of four installers.

    The fourth, looking into political corruption, has caught out as many Liberals and those from any other party.

    These Commissions are horrendously expensive and usually achieve very little.

    Whether any of these turn out differently only time will tell.

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  26. ChardonnayGuy (1,131 comments) says:

    Let’s have a look at what the Aussie broadsheets are saying. And yes, they are picking a Turnbull/Abbott leadership contest at some point in the future. Shit. And I thought only the Australian Labor Party engaged in these fratricidal bloodletting displays and byzantine factionalism… :/

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/andrew-bolt-is-undermining-malcolm-turnbull-for-undermining-tony-abbott-got-it-20140602-39eky.html

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