Kiwiblog

Labour yesterday announced a formal position on mobile termination rates:

The Government should put consumers first and regulate mobile termination rates to keep call costs down, Labour spokesperson for communications and IT Clare Curran said today.

“High mobile termination rates are a barrier to entry for new players in the market, which leads to less competition and higher prices,” Clare Curran said.

“While Vodafone and Telecom have now offered to lower termination rates by around 80 per cent, it still does not go far enough to reduce the major issues for new entrants.

I think it is a good thing that Labour have learnt from their mistakes, when they did a deal with the two telcos in 2007, rather than accept the advice to regulate.

Slightly amused that their formal policy stance comes just days after Clare had a whack at Matthew Hooton for implying Labour support the Drop the Rate, Mate campaign.

The Drop the Rate, Mate campaign also yesterday released their submission to the Minister, including some research done by Curia of 400 mobile phone users. Key findings were:

• Only 18% of respondents wanted the Government to accept the binding promises of Telecom and Vodafone, while 78% wanted the Government to regulate
• 79% agreed that Telecom and Vodafone are overcharging New Zealanders
• 85% agreed with the proposition that it should cost the same to call someone on a different network, as to call someone on your own network

The full results are here – EXCELTIUM MOBILE PHONE RESULTS MARCH 2010 PUBLIC.

Chris Barton in the Herald is not shy with his opinion of what the Government should do:

So far, you have to say, Joyce has played with an exceedingly straight bat. But it won’t be easy negotiating the quagmire of a split recommendation by Commerce Commissioners on mobile termination rates. Two argue for putting heads in the sand while one voice of reason says enough is enough – Vodafone and Telecom have had more than enough time to sort this out and have, time and again, shown they can’t be trusted.

Joyce will be familiar with the sordid last-minute deal stitched together between new mobile entrant 2degrees and Vodafone last year. While the public isn’t allowed to know about this venality, anyone who cares to can find it online (search under “NZ Cellphone racket”). It shows that Vodafone will move if it has a gun to its head. Joyce will also be familiar with www.droptherate.org.nz and www.fibretothedoor.co.nz – two campaigning websites where the public is helping the minister make up his mind.

Go there at once.

What fed-up consumers want minister, is Clint Eastwood’s Dirty Harry. For some of us, it’s so bad, we don’t just want Clint to pull out his .44 Magnum and ask whether the punk feels lucky. With Telecom and Vodafone, we want him to pull the trigger.

The challenge for the Minister, is how quickly can a regulated price be established, if he chooses to regulate. The undertakings would take place more quickly. However the likely regulated price would see prices by 2011 drop further, and remain lower.

Over at Curiablog, I have blogged the results of a poll done last week of 1,200 Aucklanders on the Auckland Mayoralty.

It is very rare to have a dead tie between two candidates, but that is what we got – of the 85% of respondents who had a preference between John Banks and Len Brown, they got 50.0% each.

Banks, who is the client who commissioned the poll, has a small 4.4% lead when we ask Aucklanders unprompted who their preference for Mayor is. He gets 42.5% to 38.1% for Brown. Bob Harvey is at 7.2% and Stephen Tindall at 4.8%.

But in the second question, when asked if it is a choice between John Banks and Len Brown, they are dead even. This is a change from the previous poll in September when Brown was almost 10% ahead of Banks.

It looks like it will be a very interesting contest!

Matthew Hooton’s Exceltium has just put out a newsletter (EQ Summer 2010) focusing on the Foreshore & Seabed issue.It is a very interesting analysis of the extensive background to the issue, and some of the risks the Government faces. It is a complex area.

My firm, Curia, did some polling of New Zealanders on the issues around the Foreshore & Seabed, and Matthew talks about some of the interesting findings:

There is evidence of considerable public goodwill towards resolving the foreshore and seabed issue in a sensible way. According to the Curia polling carried out for Exceltium, 64% of the public support a reconsideration of the Act, including 54% of those who voted Labour in 2008, 69% of women and a massive 72% of those who voted National. This is despite 44% of the public saying they are happy with the ways things are now, with only 39% disagreeing with this proposition.

So most Labour and National voters support a reconsideration, but some also say they’re pretty happy with the status quo.

Neither main party’s handling of the issue in the mid 2000s now scores well among the public. There is strong agreement that Labour handled the issue poorly, with 46% saying its handling was “poor” or “very poor”, and only 16% prepared to say it was handled “well” or “very well”. In contrast to what polls suggested at the time, more people (36%) now claim to have disagreed with Dr Brash’s Orewa speech than those who say they agreed with it (25%). Remarkably, only 12% of National voters in 2008 now say they “strongly agreed” with their former leader’s speech. These figures suggest a degree of revisionism by voters about their own opinions in 2004.

I was surprised at how much opinion has changed over the five years. To some degree I think this is because of the media constantly referring to the Orewa speech in such negative terms.

As many as 70% of respondents to the Curia poll say they are “not at all informed” or only “a little informed” about the issues around the Act. Just 8% say they are “highly informed”. This is confirmed by the fact that 36% of New Zealanders believe that less than 10% of the coastline is currently owned privately and only 20% of people believe more than 20% of the coastline is in private hands. In fact, about 30% of the coastline is currently owned privately.

The unbroken Queens Chain is more myth than reality.

Of propositions tested by Curia, overwhelmingly the public agreed most strongly with the statement “the Government should ensure equal access to the foreshore and seabed for everyone”. As many as 59% of people strongly agreed with this proposition with another 27% somewhat agreeing. Just 6% disagreed. Access overwhelmed even ownership as an issue with 62% agreeing with the statement “I don’t mind who owns the foreshore and seabed, so long as I can access the beach whenever I want to.” Consistent with this, 59% say “private owners of coastal areas shouldn’t be allowed to exclude the public from using the area.”

Access is not the only issue, but for most Kiwis the biggest issue. They want more access, not less.

Second only to agreement with the proposition about equal access was agreement with the statement “the Government should not pass a law to remove the right of any group of New Zealanders to take a claim to court.” As many as 62% of New Zealanders agreed with that statement – 30% strongly agreeing – and only 21% disagreed. Half the population
agree with the statement “the courts are the right place to decide who owns the foreshore and seabed” with only 31% disagreeing.

That was 3:1 against the Government removing the right to take a claim to court.

“Special rights ” for Maori opposed but “custo mary rig hts ” ok

In contrast with the view that the courts are the best place to resolve the foreshore and seabed issue, 48% of respondents to the Curia poll agree the Act was “too generous” to Maori as it gave them “special rights”. It is not clear what the public defines as “special” because 53% of the population appears to agree the law should provide for local Maori to undertake customary activities on beaches where continuity of use since 1840 can be proved.

It is interesting how some people say they are against “special rights” but they are for “customary rights” when it is explained what these are.

What was also very interesting (to me anyway) is that some people said they both agreed the Foreshore & Seabed Act was unfair to Maori as it took away their right to go to court, but also that the FSA was too generous to Maori as it gave them special rights.

Now some of this may just be the way the questions are worded – they were designed to see how people respond to the issue being framed that way. But in fact, in my opinion, it is quite valid to have a view that the FSA was both unfair to Maori and too generous to Maori.

I’ve blogged on this before, but it comes down to the difference between depth and breadth.

In my opinion the FSA was unfair to Maori as it legislated away their chance to test in court their claims to foreshore usage, right down to the possibility of gaining title in some areas. This was unlikely, but it was possible. And if the law is that title exists, then that has to be negotiated away or compensated.

But while the FSA reduced the depth to which a claim could go, it increased the breadth. It made it much easier for a wider range of Iwi and Hapu to claim rights over a greater area of foreshore & seabed than the Court of Appeal decision would have probably allowed.

Now some in Labour claimed their FSA gave more to Maori than they would have got in court. Parekura Horomia said this in a debate with Derek Fox. Fox’s response was that may be the case, but they would the precedent of legislating away the right to go to court, in return for a unilateral “gifting” of rights is a bad one.

It will be interesting to see what proposals emerge from the Government. Exceltium strongly advocate that the matter should return to the courts. It is a pity that Labour in 2004 did not appeal to the Privy Council, rather than legislate, so we would have had the benefit of a definitive legal ruling from our (then) highest court.

There were four public polls in October – two Morgans, a Herald poll and a TV3 poll. Their average sees a 28% gap between National and Labour – a post election high.

The full monthly newsletter summarising public polls in NZ, Australia, US, UK and Canada has just gone out. Interested readers can subscribe to it at http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter.

Curia’s September 2009 public polls newsletter is out. This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail so if you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

You can also get more details of individual polls at Curiablog.

As one can see the gap closed considerably in September between National and Labour.

However not a big change in terms of projected seats for each bloc as the Greens have lost support, and ACT has gained support.

UPDATE: Have blogged at Curiablog the Roy Morgan poll out today. Has National at all time high of 57.5% and cocountry heading in right direction also at all time high of 72%.

Curia did some polling for the Drop the Rate, Mate campaign, and the full results of the polling are on curiablog.

The eight organisations behind the campaign are not ones you would normally see agree on much. You have Federated Farmers and the Unite Union. You have the Consumers Institute and the Federation of Maori Authorities. You have NZUSA and TUANZ, plus the new mobile carrier 2degrees and Airnet.

They are calling on the Government to accept the recommendation of the Commerce Commission and reduce the termination rates telcos charge each other as these rates keep competition out, and keep costs higher.  You can sign the online petition on the campaign website.

The Commerce Commission previously recommended the rates be lowered speedily by regulation, but Trevor Mallard on behalf of the then Labour Government rejected doing this, in favour of a deal with the two big telcos for smaller slower voluntary reductions (with a guarantee the reduction in the wholesale fee would be reflected in their retail fees). The Commerce Commission has concluded these did not go far enough and has recommended more dramatic drops. It is thought the current termination rate for a text message is around ten times greater than the actual cost of receiving a text message and passing it onto a phone.

I’m not surprised to see NZUSA supporting the campaign, as I found out first hand what a hot issue this is for both secondary and tertiary students. We had a couple of focus groups with students aged from around 16 to 24 and I was astonished by how passionate they were about their dislike of the current billing arrangements caused by the high termination rates.

Many said that their choice of mobile phone provider has nothing to do with personal choice, but totally dependent on who all their friends are with. Hence in Wellington most students are Telecom and in Auckland most are Vodafone. Again many of them simply will not text (or call) someone on a different network due to the cost.

I sometimes wonder what a mess we would have if ISPs charged a termination rate for e-mails. Imagine having to pay 7c to e-mail someone on a different ISP. You’d end up with only a couple of ISPs probably as no-one would want to send e-mail to people at a different ISP. This might explain why up until recently we have had only two mobile phone providers but many dozens of Internet service providers!

Not a big change to the polls in June. I’ve just put out the June polling newsletter that has details of poll in NZ, Australia, UK, US and Canada. You can subscribe to it at this page.

Over the last six weeks or so Obama has fallen from a net positive rating of +28% to +14%. -14% from last month) with 55% (-6%) approving and 41% (+8%) disapproving. He now has (based on the average of all public polls) an approval rating of 55% and disapproval of 41%.

Gallup have been polling since WWII and allow you to compare Presidents at the same stage of their presidency. At Day 171 this is how the post WWII Presidents ranked:

1. Truman 82%
2. Johnson 74%
3. Eisenhower 73%
4. Kennedy 72%
5. Carter 67%
6. Bush GHW 66%
7. Nixon 65%
8. Reagan 56%
9. Bush GW 56%
10. Obama 55%
11. Clinton 41%
12. Ford 39%

Now to be fair to Obama, the higher ratings tended to be the earlier Presidents, but nevertheless it shows the challenges ahead for him.

No major change in the polls in May.A 22% gap between National and Labour.

The monthly polling newsletter was published yesterday. You can subscribe to it here.

The gap between National and Labour is a healthy 21% but this is down from 26% in March. This suggests the honeymoon is ending with National back down to the level it enjoyed in early 2008.

Further graphs and tables are in Curia’s monthly e-mail newsletter which you can subscribe to here.

The March 2009 public polls newsleter by Curia has just been published. As one can see not a lot of change. The newsletter is e-mail only, and you can subscribe to receive it at this webpage.

Also of interest to some people may be a recent poll of small and medium busineses by Curia for BDO Spicers and Ideas Shop. Curiablog has a summary of some results and links to the main reports. I found it interesting that recruiting and retaining staff was still cited as a major challenge for many SMEs (despite the recession) and also the number of firms that had flexible working practices such as being able to go from full-time to part-time, or work partly from home.

Over at Curiablog I have blogged on the apparent differences between polls on the Section 59 law and how in fact the two polls can be reconciled to each other.

For example while the UMR poll did find only 28% opposed to the new law, they also found 58% agreed that “There are certain circumstances when it is alright for parents to use physical punishment with children” .

In fact only 20% of UMR respondents disagreed with that statement.

I’ve also covered in some detail, how different polls can be focusing on different elements of a law, and differently worded questions can produce different results. This does not mean either one is biased – it means they are focused on different things.

After a three month break due to the paucity of polls post-election, Curia’s regular monthly newsletter returns.

The average of the public polls has National a massive 27% ahead of Labour and easily able to govern alone. The gap at the election was 11%.

Australia sees Labor on 60.5% for a 22% lead.

In the United States Barack Obama has a net positive rating of 31% and we compare this to Bush and Clinton in their first 100 days.

The UK Labour Party is 14% behind the Conservatives who are projected to have a 1000 seat majority on these results.

In Canada the Conservatives are down to 34%, just 2% ahead of the Liberals.

We also carry details of polls in NZ. There are details of polls on job sentiment, the Labour leadership, relationships and the Government’s handling of the recession.

A new feature this month compares the right vs wrong direction poll ratings for New Zealand, Australia, Canada, the US and the UK. There is a massive difference between countries.

If you would like to receive the full newsletterby e-mail go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

Curia has just published its final monthly newsletter summarising the public polls, before the US and NZ elections. Normally we only distribute this by e-mail but I am sticking it up on the blog for download as a pdf, for interested persons, this time only: public-polls-october-2008

National has dipped down to below 50%, Labour has stayed fairly static and the Greens have had a significant increase. The interesting thing is the average of the polls is almost identical if one simly averages them all, or if you weight them by size and date.

This is the more important graph and it does show how close it is. A Government will need 62 or maybe even 63 seats to govern. National/ACT/United Future just make it. Labour/Progressive/Greens can’t govern even if the Maori Party support them. However a change of just a couple of percent means they could.

Also from the front page of the newsletter:

October saw, not surprisingly, a record ten public polls conducted– four TVNZ polls, two Morgan, two TV3 a Herald poll, a TVNZ poll and a Fairfax poll.

The average of the public polls has National 12% ahead of Labour and by the narrowest of margins able to form a Government with ACT and United Future. The gap last month was 15% so the average lead slightly narrowed in October.

Australia sees Labor on 56.5% for a 13% lead.

In the United States Barack Obama has a 6% lead in the popular vote and a projected huge 168 vote margin in the Electoral College. Only 10% of Americans say the country is heading in the right direction, which gives some idea of why the tide is not favouring incumbents. The polls also show the Democrats gaining eight Senate seats (to 59), 15 House seats and one Governorship.

The UK Labour Party is 12% behind the Conservatives who are projected to have a 70 seat majority on these results. The gap has narrowed thanks to Gordon Brown’s handing of the financial crisis.

In Canada we compare the election results to the average of the public polls and the seat predictions. The polls came out of it looking pretty good.

We also carry details of polls in NZ. There are polls in the seven Maori seats, plus Nelson, West Coast-Tasman, Palmerston North and Tauranga. Also issue polls on economic management, coalitions, organic food, beach nudity plus the usual business and consumer confidence.

This newsletter is normally only available by e-mail. If you would like to receive future issues, please go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

If you want to receive future issues just use the link above.

I’ve just sent out Curia’s September 2008 Public Polls Newsletter. It has an expanded section this month looking at the Canadian election on 14 October, the US election on 5 November plus of course our election on 8 November.

If you would like to receive future issues go to this website to subscribe yourself.

A slight increase in the vote to 15%, but still not as wide as it was in June and July.

The Greens are trending towards the critical 5% threshold, and NZ First also drops slightly to just over 3%.

The montly Curia newsletter will be out this weekend, with details of all the August polls in NZ, the US, the UK, Asutralia and Canada. You can subscribe to the newsletter here.

As the graph shows, there has been a huge reduction in the gap between National and Labour in the last two months. National still could form a Government, but Labour are starting to develop options also.

The Greens and NZ First both dropping away this month and the Maori Party and ACT both making some gains.

These graphs include the latest Roy Morgan poll. I’ll be updating Curiablog later today with the latest data which will update the time and size weighted average in the sidebar.

Aaron Bhatnagar has written a book, which political junkies would find fascinating – the inside story of how John Banks came back from his thrashing in 2004 to win by a massive majority in 2007.

Aaron has not yet chosen how he will publish it, but he is blogging some of the chapters. Up so far are Chapter 1 (Well dressed for the collapse), Chapter 4 (The city starts to turn), and Chapter 6 (Polling starts). I had some involvement with the campaign, and it was one of the most fascinating ones I have experienced.

Most campaigns are like most wars – the plan changes the moment the first bullet is fired. The Banks campaign had a strategy and plan that was basically never deviated from. The early polling (which was my role) showed the extent of Hubbard’s unpopularity and that Aucklanders were willing to give John a second go. This meant that a campaign could be developed that pushed a positive message from Banks, and almost ignored Hubbard. There was no need to remind people of how bad Hubbard had been – they already knew it.

One of the reasons I love polling is it does give you a glimpse of what is happening with the public, and the detailed breakdowns by ward showed some amazing turn-arounds with both Banks and C&R being competitive in areas that were traditionally hostile.

Anyway I’ll let Aaron carry on telling the story, but link through from time to time. As I said, most students of politics will find it an interesting read, regardless of whether or not they are a Banks fan or not.

Later in the weekend, the July 2008 polling newsletter will be released. The two main graphs for NZ are below:

The gap between National and Labour narrowed from 23% to 18%. National is hovering at just over 50%.

NZ First is at a two year high, having broken past 4%. Most of the polling was prior to revelations over funding, but regardless they have been going up since the budget.

The full newsletter is only available by e-mail. If you would like to receive future issues, go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.

A few people have mentioned to me the ODT has a new website, with their articles going up the same day now. Excellent, and I will add them to my daily read, so may start linking more stories from them.

In the interests of fairness, I should provide a link to an column by Assistant Editor Simon Cunliffe, who scrutinises work my polling firm did for Family First.

I am actually working on a dedicated polling blog, where issues around polls and pollings can be discussed in more detail. As that is not yet ready for public release (I am planning some nifty features such a a semi-automated daily update of the public poll average, seat projections, even which candidates will make up the next Parliament – all based on public polls) I include over the break some extracts from an e-mail I sent in response to Simon’s column. Simon has given a pleasant reply by e-mail also. All polling companies get scrutiny, and with my profile on some issues, it is to be expected.

(more…)

Following the Herald and TV3 polls both out today, Curia’s monthly newsletter summarising the public polls in NZ and abroad will be published tomorrow.

The graph above shows the average of all the public polls since the election. February 2008 includes all six polls in February.

It also includes the normal round-up from Australia, the US, the UK and Canada. In Australia Kevin Rudd has a massive 29% lead over the Coalition.

This newsletter is only available by e-mail. If you would like to receive future issues go to http://listserver.actrix.co.nz/cgi-bin/mailman/listinfo/polling-newsletter to subscribe yourself.