So my view as of six weeks ago was that it was probably just too late to replace Biden. But as Biden's polling gets worse — his approval ratings are near their lowest-ever number — I've been increasingly hedging on that. Democrats would be taking a huge risk by replacing Biden — but they're also taking a huge risk by nominating him. There's no getting out of this.
Silver goes on to quote an article that says Biden won't be able to do a normal campaign in 2024 due to a lack of capacity. Silver comments:
But if this is a consensus view — a widely-acknowledged truth that other people are too afraid to say, including people in the White House — then that's enough to pull me off the fence. It would be extremely foolish to nominate an 80-year-old man who is not up to the rigors of a modern presidential campaign — even more foolish than replacing him, which just to be clear is also an extremely foolish thing to do.
I tend to agree with Silver. A second trump term would be a disaster for democracy, so if the best way to stop that is Biden not standing again, that is what he should do.