I receive some similar emails but there is a background to this …. …. that I cannot disclose … that makes it so powerful.

All the best to you all for your holidays Kiwibloggers – politicians – media – educators – etc – then please hit the ground running for the children of NZ for 2024.

Please keep in mind “back to the basics (even teaching them “brilliantly”) will not work for all” it will just restore us to 75% doing okay and children who are anxious, dyslexic, autistic, sensory deprived in their first 5.75 years (in many cases through poverty or family dysfunction) will still be out in the cold.

A “world-class” system is world class for everyone.

Please read the two emails word-for-word – it is a template for good.

Children will return to schools in NZ when they know they are loved, purposed and that the school day is worth their time in every way. 

Best

Alwyn Poole
Innovative Education Consultants
www.innovativeeducation.co.nz
www.alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

Hi there Alwyn and Merry Christmas to you and your family.  

I want to relay to you something  “Joe” said to me recently because positive feedback is always a good thing huh!  

Joe is now studying at Northern Health School and he’s doing great having gone thru a difficult time at Selwyn (I should say the staff there were very caring and tried hard to accommodate him but for various reasons mainstream school caused him a lot of mental health issues).  

Anyway when we agreed that he would move to Northern Health School Joe told me that he had realised that the teachers at MHMS had truly understood how to teach him to suit his learning style.  He said he felt that he hadn’t had the life experience and maturity when he was younger to recognise this.  In fact he had only come to the realisation once he’d experienced a big mainstream school. 

Whilst he got teacher aide support at Selwyn he said they didn’t usually have a lot of knowledge of the topic they were helping him with (which was frustrating), he found it difficult to capture the teachers’ attentions when he had questions and he spent all his time trying to explain to them that the way they were teaching wasn’t suiting how his brain worked and so it was impacting on his opportunities for learning.  

Joe has developed into a fine eloquent young man who can advocate for himself.  He is interested in chemistry and the law and I just thought it would be a nice thing to give you and your team some credit for the important part you played in. getting him to where he is now.  

Thanks and all the best!  

“Sally”

From: Alwyn Poole <[email protected]>
Date: Sun, Dec 24, 2023 at 1:55 PM

Hello Sally

What you describe is exactly why I established MHMS in the first place. For children of all dispositions to find their niche, their keys to development and understand that their uniqueness/differences are purposed and that embracing them is a key to fulfillment. 

I have no way of truly comprehending what you guys went through but please tell Joe I am so proud of the progress he is making.

Please reach out any time you think I can be of use.

Best – and thank you so much for this communication it means plenty.

Alwyn Poole
Innovative Education Consultants
www.innovativeeducation.co.nz
www.alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

Lady Deborah Chambers writes:

The issue now is whether the existing Royal Commission, announced in December 2022 by then Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern, can be salvaged or whether we are better to start with a clean slate. I suggest the latter, for two reasons.

First, the methodology and related terms of reference are not fit for purpose. Second, the leadership of the Royal Commission is not conducive to a broad, independent inquiry.

I thought the former would be sufficient, but the arguments for scrapping it entirely and starting again are persuasive:

The terms of reference appear to presuppose that the public health response itself was justified and the only lessons we could take forward into the future might be about the effective implementation of that public health response.

In other words, there is no evaluation of Government decision-making. The microscope will be focused on how future governments can legislate and regulate more effectively on their chosen path.

The Government spent tens of billions of dollars on the response, so surely their decisions must be examined.

Decisions like extensive and preventative lockdowns at the later stages of the pandemic, vaccine mandates or closing our borders to Kiwis stuck overseas. These decisions have had painful consequences: sky-rocketing school absences, particularly among our poor, sky-high anxiety, missed cancers and a catastrophic effect on mental health, our economy and crime.

How were these decisions actually made by our Government? What cost-benefit analysis was done to reflect the social and economic burdens that necessarily accompanied life-saving measures? What was the true cost of these measures as it played out and how many lives were indeed saved? Were less invasive measures that didn’t breach our Bill of Rights evaluated? Did the Government deliberately exacerbate a climate of fear to promote compliance with various regulations and to what extent did the media support such an agenda? Was the Government’s additional focus on protecting the health of the Māori and Pacific Islander communities proportionate to outcomes for those communities? What expert advice was the Government receiving – was a broad range of views sought (within reason)? And how accurate was the Government’s statistical information that it based these decisions on?

All great questions, we should get answers for.

Up close, the existing Commission looks like a giant, expensive, rubber stamp to simply approve the last Government’s policy in regard to Covid-19. As constructed, this inquiry will predictably be an expensive exercise in missing the point. The response to Covid-19 was not just a scientific question. It was also a social and economic question and that evaluation, and the independent leadership to undertake that evaluation is glaringly absent.

Whatever mistakes were made at the time, it is imperative that the coalition’s inquiry is an opportunity to learn from them. The Government needs to scrap the current Commission completely and start again. Anything else will be just “lipstick on a pig”.

I am persuaded and agree.

Reporters without Borders released:

In response to the new Deputy Prime Minister’s repeated verbal attacks on the media, Reporters Without Borders (RSF) calls on New Zealand’s Prime Minister Christopher Luxon to reaffirm his government’s support to press freedom.

I thought this was a joke at first. Winston having a go at the media (as he has done for 20+ years) suddenly has RSF demanding the PM intervene and commit to press freedom.

RSF are being rather precious. With journalists being killed and arrested around the world, their focus on New Zealand is rather weird.

The Herald reports:

An Auckland man convicted of strangling his partner will be monitored ‘like a hawk’ by a judge who said it was only by luck he had not killed her and she worried he could kill in future if he does not change his ways. She is sick of seeing strangulation cases before her and is desperate for people to realise the consequences of their actions

So the judge said it was luck he didn’t murder her, he may murder in future and wants people to raise consequences of their actions. So how much prison time did this guy get for an offence with a seven year maximum?

Before I answer that, and many of you already have guessed, let’s do more background on the offender.

• January 2022, Emily was assaulted at least three times – Pete ripped her hair from her scalp in clumps, pushed her to the floor and screamed and shouted at her as he stood over her.
• In the final assault, he bent down and put his hands around her neck, squeezing briefly, relaxing his grip then strangling her for at least 30 seconds.
• Pete has a previous family violence conviction from 2012 for assaulting another woman.
• “Police have had to come to your house because somebody there has called them, or a next-door neighbour has done so, 26 times and nine in the last two years,” Judge Ryan said.
• Pete has also had three protection orders granted against him in 2014, 2015 and 2016.

For all that, he got seven months home detention!

The reform agenda of the new President of Argentina is bold, and much needed (inflation at 160%). It includes:

• Elimination of a law regulating rent
• Abolish rules preventing the privatization of state enterprises.
• Modernization of labor law to facilitate the process of creating real jobs
• A series of deregulatory measures affecting tourism, satellite internet services, pharmaceuticals, wine production and foreign trade.
• Spending cuts equivalent to five percent of gross domestic product
• Huge cuts in generous state subsidies of fuel and transport
• A halt to all new public construction projects
• A year-long suspension of state advertising

I hope he succeeds!

The Herald reports:

Unite Union says it had to abandon a demonstration at One NZ’s headquarters this afternoon over a change to the telco’s work-from-home policy – which now requires contact centre staff to work three days a week in the office, up from the previous two.

Can only work from home for two days a week now – oh the inhumanity.

Regardless, Unite will push ahead with its main protest action, which will see unionised staff work from home five days a week between January 15 and 26.

One NZ has about 2500 staff. It says 112 are registered members of Unite, including 70 in customer service roles.

So less than 5% of staff are union members. If I was one of them, I’d be very careful about defying the employer’s policy on turning up to work, as iy could be a sackable offence

Shane Reti announced:

Health Minister Dr Shane Reti has announced a two-year $50 million package to help Māori health providers lift immunisation rates. 

Launching the programme in Porirua today, Dr Reti says low immunisation rates put tamariki at particular risk of life threatening – and in some cases deadly – illness.  

“We have a shared determination to make a difference for our most vulnerable.  

“That’s why this programme is important and why as a government we’re determined immunisation rates will improve for all children, including low-coverage Māori babies and children.   …

Of the $50 million over two years, $30 million will go to Whānau Ora providers to work with those most at risk – Māori and non-Māori pēpi, hāpu māma, and kaumātua. An additional $10 million will go to North Island partners and $10 million to South Island partner

This is a good example of how Government can work with Maori health providers to try and improve outcomes for Maori. You don’t need a 400 strong bureaucracy with co-governance. You just need good policy, good targeting and good relationships.

Despite all the rhetoric from the last Government about Maori health, the actual outcomes have been terrible. Look at the chart below.

So the Key Government inherited a vaccination rate for Maori two year olds of under 75%. In just three years they managed to lift it to almost 95% and it stayed at over 90%. Under Labour it fell to under 70%.

I blogged these predictions in December 2022.

1. National will win more party votes and seats than Labour at the general election. Easy 1/1
2. ACT will win more party votes than the Greens at the general election, unless chloe swarbrick becomes a co-leader. Wrong 0/1
3. There will be a National-led government. Right 1/1
4. NZ First will make 5%, but will not hold the balance of power. They did make 5% but also held balance of power so 0.5/1
5. By the end of 2023 (after six years) the Government will not have achieved even 6% of its ten year targets for houses or trees. Obviously they failed so I got 1/1
6. Ron DeSantis will announce he is standing for President of the United States. He did, but doing very badly 1/1
7. Joe Biden will announce he is seeking re-election. He is, fort now anyway. 1/1
8. The Government will not pass its compulsory income insurance into law before the election. Thankfully 1/1 
9. National will win at least 10 electorates off Labour. Off memory they won 15 or so 1/1
10. Construction will not have begun in light rail in auckland. LOL easy 1/1
11. One or more major banks will have floating mortgage rates of 8% or higher in 2023. BNZ at least is 8.69% 1/1
12. NZ will avoid a recession by having only one quarter of negative growth in 2023. I give myself 0.5/1. We had -0.2% in March, +0.5% in June and -0.3% in September. More Han one quarter of negative growth but not consecutive in 2023, so not a recession (unless you include the Dec 22 quarter which was also negative)
13. Labour will deliver small tax cuts to the lowest rate or bracket in the Budget. Nope they gave nothing 0/1
14. At least two more Ministers will announce they are retiring at the election.We lost four! 1/1
15. The Maori Party will win at least two of the seven maori seats. They won 6 so 1/1
16. At least one Labour minister who holds an electorate will go list only. Grant Robertson did 1/1
17. Gerry Brownlee will become the 32nd speaker of the House. He did 1/1
18. Fighting will continue in Ukraine throughout 2023. Sadly 1/1
19. The general election will be in November 2023. Out by a month 0/1
20. Stuff will introduce a paywall. They did 1/1

Overall score is 16/20. I need to do more edgy ones for 2024, which I’ll publish in a few days.

Here’s the key takeaways from yesterday:

• Forecast surplus for 2027 has shrunk from $2.1 billion to $0.14 billion in just two months
• Borrowing now forecast to be $7 billion more
• Government so far has identified $7.5 billion of savings or revenue enhancements over the next four years (not bad for the first two weeks)
• Public sector agencies need to find $1.5 billion in savings per annum, noting that spending has increased 80% since 2017.
• Labour’s Transport Investment Programme had $288 billion of commitments, of which only $85 billion had been appropriated
• Labour’s fiscal cliffs (programmes that they did not include along-term funding for) total at least $7.2 billion over the next four years
• Proposed changes to Public Finance Act so that there will be greater disclosure of the quantum of fiscal risks

Te What Ora has finally published data for the Sep 23 quarter and the percentage of ED patients seen within six hours has dropped from 72.3% a year ago to 67.6%. Under National is was almost at 95%. So Labour have managed to go from 1 in 20 waiting over six hours to more than six in 20.

More shocking is if you look at the absolute numbers. At the old level of 95% seen within six hours, that means only 17,000 ED patients would wait more than six hours. But the actual number in the latest quarter was over 110,000. That’s 90,000 more NZers waiting more than six hours at ED.

Curse Labour for removing this as a national health target in 2017. It will now take a lot of time and effort to turn it around and get it back to acceptable levels.

Hands up if you have ever heard of Iona Holsted? She is the Secretary for Education in NZ and earns close to $600,000 for ensuring that we are going through the worst crisis for our children and young people within our schools.

Nicola Willis is currently trying to save money on budget items. Schools in NZ would not miss any of the top 3000 MOE bureaucrats and she could save $300,000,000 by simply asking them all to re-apply for the positions on the basis of how they improve the outcomes for children.

Alwyn Poole
[email protected]
www.innovativeeducation.co.nz
www.alwynpoole.substack.com
www.linkedin.com/in/alwyn-poole-16b02151/

Shane Reti announced:

Health Minister Dr Shane Reti is appointing a Crown observer to Health New Zealand – Te Whatu Ora, citing significant ongoing challenges around the 2022 health reforms.

“I have carefully considered the hard work which has gone on around Health NZ since its establishment,” Dr Reti said.

“The incoming government is resetting a clear focus on health outcomes. The Labour government failed to acknowledge a health crisis and failed in its duty to provide adequate oversight and support during a period of massive upheaval for health.

“I am confident that the appointment of a Crown observer will assist the HNZ Board and management to work with the board to overcome a range of issues, including health workforce and hospital wait times.

“I am therefore appointing Ken Whelan as Crown observer to work with the Board to ensure it delivers the outcomes expected by the coalition government.

“Mr Whelan commences his role immediately, and will independently advise me through formal quarterly reporting, and other updates as necessary.

“He has more than 30 years of health care leadership experience and has previously served as a Crown monitor at Counties Manukau and Waikato DHBs.

The appointment of Mr Whelan looks very good – someone with huge experience.

But it is still unusual.

I may be wrong, but I can’t recall a crown observer being appointed previously for an entity solely appointed by central Government. You see them with local government, schools and the former DHBs (which were partially elected).

If you think the board needs monitoring, why not just appoint new board members? I’m guessing, but presumably they wanted some stability so have gone for a crown observer.

The November 2023 Roy Morgan is out.

Party Vote

• National 37.5% (-0.6% from election)
• Labour 21.0% (-5.9%)
• Greens 12.5% (+0.9%)
• ACT 12.5% (+3.9%)
• NZ First 5.5% (+0.5%)
• Te Pāti Māori 2.5% (-0.6%)
• TOP 3.5% (+1.3%)

Seats

• National 48 (-1 from election)
• Labour 27 (-7)
• Greens 16 (+1)
• ACT 16 (+5)
• NZ First 10 (+2)
• TPM 6 (nc)

Governments

• National/ACT 64/123
• National/ACT/NZ First 74/123
• Labour/Green/TPM 49/123

Direction

• Right 36.5% (+5.5% from Oct 23)
• Wrong 46% (-11.5%)
• Net -9.5% (+17.0%)

The party vote for Labour is the lowest ever in the history of the Roy Morgan poll. 

VUW reports:

Dean Knight, Associate Professor of Law at Te Kauhanganui Tātai Ture—Faculty of Law, was announced as the winner of the Critic and Conscience of Society award for 2023. …

Throughout his career, Dr Knight has consistently provided insights on the operation of government, promoting the proper use of power and holding to account those in positions of authority. Over the last two years in particular, he has led crucial debate within areas of public law that has resulted in real shifts in government policy, most notably the legality of the government’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and the proposed entrenchment clause in the Water Services (Three Waters) legislation.

Dean has done some wonderful work as a constitutional lawyer, through his Twitter account.

Dr Knight is proud of his independence and strives to be non-partisan –and his track record shows criticism and compliments across the political spectrum. But he’s quick to point out that he does not claim to be wholly neutral. “When we engage in matters of government and constitutional law, we necessarily bring some of our own ideological baggage—we have a vision of what the ideal state should be and that ideology in part shapes our sense of what good governance looks like,” he explains. “So I can’t be neutral. But I won’t be partisan. And, be assured, I will be one hundred percent robust. Those are my rules of engagement for entering the civic fray.”

I like this explanation of how you can be non-partisan, even if you are not neutral in terms of your outlook.

Chris Bishop announced:

“A recent report by the Treasury and Ministry for Housing and Urban Development found that Kāinga Ora’s level of debt had grown from $2.7 billion in 2018 to $12.3 billion in June of this year. Advice released last year suggests that if Kāinga Ora continues on its current trajectory, their debt would reach $28.9 billion by 2033.

“I am deeply concerned about the operating deficit which is already at $520 million in 22/23 and which is forecast to continue increasing. This deficit has a direct impact on OBEGAL and continues to put pressure on the return to OBEGAL surplus.

“Since coming to office Ministers have received further worrying advice about the financial situation of Kāinga Ora. We are not releasing that information at this time as it is commercially sensitive, but it confirms that an independent review is the right course of action.

You have to wonder how bad it is, for an independent review to be needed?

An interesting post by Dr Lawrie Knight, who makes the case that Chiefs who signed the Treaty of Waitangi were aware they were ceding power and sovereignty, based on their actual speeches at the signing.

Also Liam Hehir makes a valuable point:

Imagine if all the world’s historians met and agreed that William the Conqueror’s claim to England was comprehensively disproved. Would it follow that everything built upon the foundation of the Norman Conquest is devoid of legitimacy? The castles, the cathedrals, the legal structures, the very fabric of the English and then British state – are they all tainted by the original sin of an illegitimate claim to rule?

As far as I know nobody has ever seriously proposed replacing the modern British state, including Parliament, cabinet government and the common law with a Witenagemot that also appointed the king from among the noble Anglo-Saxon families to administer justice according to the Danelagh and other customary laws. Too much water has passed under the bridge for that and, however shaky the nature of William’s claim, it is not the basis on which the British state today draws its legitimacy.

The same applies to the Treaty of Waitangi. It was a definitive step in a process that ultimately led to Britain establishing sovereignty over the entirety of New Zealand. But it has not been the thing that has sustained that sovereignty since 1840.

As Liam says, the Treaty was a step towards sovereignty, but the US, Canada and Australia are all examples of sovereign governments despite no treaty or equivalent.

Steven Joyce writes:

he interisland ferry decision was the wrong one from the start. As Finance Minister in 2017, I clearly recall being advised that rail-enabled ferries would be a big, expensive mistake in this day and age. All over the world they were being retired, and virtually nobody was building new ones. The market had long since voted with its feet and we should too. Interestingly, at that time KiwiRail agreed.

The only fiscally responsible move was roll-on, roll-off ferries, which do a fine job of shifting freight and people between islands and continents all around the world. With most freight now in containers, getting it from shore to ship and ship to shore is simple and easy. In 2017, it made no sense for New Zealand to be the last country in the world to build ferries with train tracks on them.

However, the Ardern Government knew better, as they claimed in so many areas. One thing that united the new coalition partners was a nostalgic love for all things heavy rail. They swiftly sent the message to KiwiRail that they wanted rail-enabled ferries, and would pay for them. Never mind that four of the five current ships on the strait are not rail-enabled and have no need to be – it was time to go back to the future. The rest of the world was wrong.

So the Government effectively mandated that replacement ferries would have to cost so much.

It is absolutely no surprise that the cost has blown out from $775 million to $3b in just five years. And all this for an Interislander operation that had revenue of just $151m in the last financial year and a surplus of $12m.

That’s a stunning figure. The left are complaining that the new Government won’t spend $3b on an operation which has revenue of just 5% of that, and profit of 0.4% of the cost.

Stuff reports:

A federal jury ordered Rudy Giuliani on Friday to pay US$148 million (NZ$238m) to two election workers who sued him for defamation, asserting that the former attorney for Donald Trump exposed them to a life-altering torrent of abuse and trauma by promoting false claims that they stole the 2020 election from the former president in Georgia.

The panel of five women and three men in Washington deliberated for more than nine hours before entering a stunning penalty that was more than three times the US$48m (NZ$77m) sought by the workers, in the first large judgment against an individual in Trump’s orbit for propagating the myth that vote fraud tipped the US election to President Biden.

If a jury gives three times the amount sought, that suggests they saw the case as beyond redemption for Rudy. He filed to provide even a shred of evidence for his outlandish claims.

The lives of the two women, and their families, were made hellish by these lies. It is good to see consequences.