The New Years Honours List in full is here.

The top tier awards are:

GNZM
To be a Knight Grand Companion of the said Order:
Sir Stephen Robert Tindall, KNZM, of Auckland. For services to business, the community, and the environment.

DNZM
To be Dames Companion of the said Order:
Distinguished Professor Margaret Anne Brimble, CNZM, of Auckland. For services to science.
Ms Diana Buchanan Crossan, of Wellington. For services to the State.
Ms Kerry Leigh Prendergast, CNZM, JP, of Wellington. For services to governance and the community.
Ms Gaylene Mary Preston, ONZM, of Wellington. For services to film.

KNZM
To be Knights Companion of the said Order:
Dr Ian Bruce Hassall, of Auckland. For services to the welfare of children.
Mr Robert Arnold McLeod, of Auckland. For services to business and Māori.
Mr Timothy Richard Shadbolt, JP, of Invercargill. For services to local government and the community.
Mr Robert Kinsela Workman, QSO, of Levin. For services to prisoner welfare and the justice sector.

Interesting choices with Sir Tim Shadbolt and Sir Kim Workman, but congratulations to them and their families.

Once again I emulate the annual Fairfax predictions, with my own. Here’s my 20 for 2019:

1. NZ First will be on or below 4% in most public polls in 2019
2. ACT will change its name to the “Freedom” party.
3. By the end of 2019 (after two years) the Government will not have achieved even 3% of its ten year targets for houses or trees
4. At least one National List MP will retire in 2019
5. The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading, but be subject to a referendum
6. At least one further Minister will be gone by the end of 2019
7. The official cash rate will stay constant in 2019
8. A new political party will be registered in 2019
9. TOP will not make 0.5% in any public poll
10. The Government’s projected surplus in the 2019 Budget will be less than the surplus for 2017/18
11. The Government will fail to get the numbers in the House for a comprehensive Capital Gains Tax
12. Bill Shorten will become Prime Minister of Australia
13. Brexit will not occur on 29 March 2019
14. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2019 will be the same or higher than September 2019
    
15. Kelvin Davis will be replaced as Deputy Leader of the Labour Party
16. Donald Trump will not get $5 billion for his wall so will back down on the Government shut down
17. The parliamentary boundaries revision will be delayed until after the 2020 election due to the census failure
18. Justin Trudeau will be re-elected Prime Minister of Canada, but the Liberals will be a minority, not majority, Government
19. Kris Faafoi will be promoted to Cabinet
20. The House Judiciary Committee will commence impeachment hearings against Donald Trump in 2019

Stuff reports:

For many communities the days of bringing your own beer or wine to race meetings are already over, but proposed new legislation could see them return and keep police out of meddling in future events. 

A new members billl, to be put forward by MP for Hutt South Chris Bishop, aims to clarify the law around BYO alcohol areas at race meetings. 

“A glass of wine or beer in the sun with some chips and dip is a Kiwi tradition. Some race meets have allowed BYO for more than 135 years,” he said in a statement.

Yep. I recall a great day at the Castlepoint races a few years ago. A few beers while watching the horses compete.

Bishop said in a statement that his bill would allow families and communities to carry on the tradition of chilly bin and a hamper at the races.
“My bill makes it clear that racing clubs and race meetings are not the intended targets of section 235 of the Sale and Supply of Liquor Act. The bill provides an exemption from section 235 for racing clubs on the days of race meetings when the club holds either an on-licence or an on-site special licence that applies to the race meeting.”
Earlier in the year, Racing Minister Winston Peters attacked ‘bureaucratic shiny bums’ who were interfering in BYO alcohol at race meetings, Bishop said.
“This is a common sense change to the law that will essentially allow the status quo at community run race meets to continue.”

As usual Peters is good at attacking problems but never does anything to fix them. So Bishop has done what Peters should have done as Minister.

In fact the bill is based on the report from the NZ Racing Board to the Minister.

So will NZ First back this bill. It will pass into law, if they do.

The Herald reports:

Whaitiri says there are certain parts of the report she agrees with, but others she “actively continues to challenge”.
“In this country, we have a hierarchy; white men, white women, brown men, brown women, and sometimes brown women have to talk extra loud to be heard,” the MP said.

By talk extra loud, does she mean assault her own press secretary?

It is remarkable that Whaitiri is both trying to portray herself as a victim, but also is playing the race and sex card.

The reality is that Whaitiri was a Minister of the Crown. She had one of the loudest voices of anyone in New Zealand – white, brown, male or female. A Minister can command attention and the media more than 99% of New Zealanders could ever hope to.

So to have her trying to paint herself as a victim in what happened is rather sad. The press secretary was the victim, not the Minister.

Only in the UN could this not be a joke.

Saudi Arabia on the Board for Gender Equality is like North Korea being on a board for disarmament.

Here’s some of the ways women have “equality” in Saudi Arabia:

• Girls and women are forbidden from traveling, conducting official business, education, employment opening a bank account and undergoing certain medical procedures without permission from their male guardians
• Women in public must cover all of their body except their hands and eyes
• Women who socialise with men can be charged with adultery, fornication or prostitution
• Women must enter and exit through special doors in banks, restaurants and other public places
• A woman can only testify in a court of law if six men vouch for them
• Children belong to the father not the mother
• Daughters inherit one half that of sons
• Victims of rape often charged with indecent behaviour

Stuff reports:

Furious principals say they will march on Parliament in protest at the most radical restructuring in 30 years, saying the proposals will destroy schooling as New Zealand knows it.

Good. The public need to know how radical and destructive these changes will be. It will be lowest common denominator where no school will be allowed to be different or better than other schools.

But at some of the bigger secondary schools, especially in Auckland, anger is mounting. In this week’s strongly-worded attack, Macleans College principal Steven Hargreaves wrote to parents and staff in the holidays to say the proposed changes would “destroy the school system in New Zealand as we know it”.

It will be a triumph for central control and ending effective parental involvement in schools.

Taking power away from boards would create “bland, one-size-fits-all” institutions and destroy the role of communities in schools, Hargreaves said.
He called on parents to oppose the recommendations and said parents had already been quick to voice their backing for him.
Parents wanted to know they could have an impact on their children’s education through the board of trustees’ parent representatives, he said. “To think that that’s going to be passed over to another faceless bureaucracy is what really worries them,” he said.

These 20 education hubs will all be run by people directly appointed by the Minister. How many principals whose views are contrary to the Minister will survive such a purge?

Hoping all Kiwiblog readers have a very Merry Christmas and get to spend quality time with family or friends.

In December 2017 I did my normal 20 predictions for the forthcoming year.  In 2017 I scored myself 12/20. How did 2018 go?

1. NZ First will be on or below 5% in most public polls in 2018: Not exceeded 5% in a single poll 1/1
2. Bill English will remain National Party Leader: Didn’t take long for that to be wrong 0/1
3. By the end of 2018 the Government will not have achieved even 1% of its ten year targets for houses or trees: They need 1,000 houses and 10 million trees. They have built 33 houses. They have directly funded 7.6 million trees for planting so that is a double fail and 1/1
4. At least three National List MPs will retire in 2018: English, Joyce and Finlayson: 1/1
5. Eugenie Sage will be elected Greens female co-leader. I over-estimated their judgment. 0/1
6. The End of Life Choice Bill will pass its third reading. Has been delayed. Could argue a half mark as not been defeated but will score 0/1
7. At least one Minister will be gone by the end of the year: Only one! 1/1
8. The official cash rate will stay constant in 2018. Correct 1/1
9. A new political party will be registered in 2018. Conservative Party changed their name but not close enough so 0/1
10. Geoff Simmons will be annointed or elected Leader of TOP: Elected. 1/1
11. The Green Party will have a new Chief of Staff in 2018. No change. 0/1
12. The Government will increase the operating allowances for future years in the 2018 Budget. Of course they did. 1/1
13. Lance O’Sullivan will be elected male co-leader of the Maori Party. Not yet anyway 0/1
14. The Tax Working Group will recommend a Capital Gains Tax. Cullen has said they are so I’m giving this 1/1
15. There will be a leadership spill in the Australian Liberal Party. Heh too easy. 1/1
16. NZ First will declare there were no donations received over $15,000 to the Electoral Commission. And we believe them. 1/1
17. Lisa Owen will be the next Political Editor for Newshub. Got Checkpoint instead 0/1
18. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2018 will be the same or higher than September 2017. Nope well down. 0/1
    
19. An electorate MP will resign their seat in 2018 triggering a by-election. Thank you Dr Coleman 1/1
20. An MP will get pregnant in 2018. I picked it first! 1/1

I got 12/20 again.

Trump is pulling US forces unilaterally out of Syria and Afghanistan. Will this mean he’ll be praised by the NZ Greens for implementing their policies?

The Herald reported:

The National Party has won its appeal over how much it must pay for breaching the copyright of Eminem’s Lose Yourself in a 2014 election ad.
In a decision released today, the Court of Appeal allowed the National Party’s appeal – and reduced the damages payment down from $600,000 to $225,000.
“On the evidence, the proposition the National Party turned a blind eye to the risk of copyright infringement or saw a risk and embarked on a reckless course of conduct with respect to that risk was not sustainable,” today’s decision says.

$225,000 damages is a lot better than $600,000. Of course not as good as zero damages.

Business Insider reports some insights from Mark Textor on why voters there are sick of politics. Has some resonance:

You work hard and do the right thing, and get no wage growth while the big end of town and politicians get tax cuts, wage increases and bonuses.
You pay your rego and taxes to build roads but still have to pay tolls to use them to get your kids to school and yourself to work while others profit.
You save up all your life and put into your super then they change the goalposts just when you’re getting near to benefiting from those savings.

You set up a little family trust to protect your small business or family farm but the politicians want to raid it with taxes.
If you make a financial mistake at work you get the sack, but the CEOs of banks keep their jobs and all their normal pay when criminals use their bank to launder money.
You invest your bit of inheritance in a blue chip Aussie company and expect a decent dividend but you get low returns while management get bonuses for poor performance.
You fill in a million forms to get any help from government but the politicians can’t even get their citizenship paperwork right.

You tighten your belt for hard times whilst governments spend billions on the big end of town consulting firms to write reports that are never implemented.
The buildings at your local school are in disrepair and your local club hasn’t enough money for your kid’s equipment whilst stadiums get built for big corporate sports that end up empty.
You have to manage kids’ schools, and homework and sports, your household budget, relatives and help out the local charity – all while holding down a job – no excuses. But Canberra is full of excuses for not doing their job.
And more than ever you have to tackle the harsh realities of life whilst the media, business of politicians prefer to indulge in pure ideology.

Worst, you can’t occasionally swear, tell a politically incorrect joke, have a fag, eat some fast food or enjoy a beer or two without someone important telling you are bad, when most of the time you do the right thing.

Politicians should take note.

Stuff reports:

If everyone in the world could move to whatever country they wanted to, New Zealand’s population would swell by 231 per cent.

United States-based research firm Gallup’s most recent Potential Net Migration Index (PNMI), a 2015-2017 survey of more than 450,000 adults from 152 countries, has revealed that New Zealand would see a substantial influx of people if migration were free.

In fact our increase would be the biggest in the world, percentage wise. We’d go from under 5 million population to over fifteen million.

Controlled migration is very beneficial to New Zealand. Our points and skills systems means that most immigrants boost the economy and help generate tax revenue which funds social services.

But uncontrolled immigration would be very different.

The countries that would have the biggest percentage population increase with open borders would be:

1. New Zealand 231%
2. Singapore 225%
3. Iceland 208%
4. UAE 204%
5. Switzerland 187%
6. Australia 179%
7. Kuwait 169%
8. Bhutan 162%
9. Canada 147%
10. Luxembourg 131%

The countries that would lose the most population are:

1. Sierra Leone -70%
2. Haiti -63%
3. Liberia -60%
4. Congo Kinshasa -50%
5. Nigeria -46%
6. Syria -44%
7. Kosovo -42%
8. El Salvador -40%
9. Guinea -36%
10. Senegal -34%

Stuff reports:

North Korea says it will never unilaterally give up its nuclear weapons unless the United States removes its nuclear threat first.
The statement carried by the official Korean Central News Agency on Thursday (local time) comes amid a deadlock in nuclear negotiations between the United States and North Korea.
It raises further doubts on whether leader Kim Jong-un will ever relinquish an arsenal he may see as his greatest guarantee of survival.

This stance is the exact opposite of what they agreed to do.

The United States will of course never get rid of its nuclear weapons. So by now demanding they do so before he gives his up, Kim is now saying North Korea will never give up their nukes.

So the summit was a chance for peace, but like all others it has failed.