Stuff reports:

The Government’s accounts have deteriorated further from the track marked out by Finance Minister Grant Robertson in the Budget.

The Treasury reported that the Government’s operating (Obegal) deficit for the 11 months to the end of May stood at $6.5 billion, which was $2.1b higher than the forecast it released in the Budget.

Under the current Government I doubt we will even get back into surplus, and start paying back debt, before the next global crisis hits.

Net core Crown debt has now risen $5b above forecast to $73b, or to 18.9% of GDP.

That is significantly above the Budget forecast which had charted that it would stand at 17.6% of GDP at the end of May.

Borrow, borrow, borrow. It’s a lot easier than having discipline over your spending.

Radio NZ reports:

Science teachers are shocked that an advance version of the draft school science curriculum contains no mention of physics, chemistry or biology.

Just think about the near insanity of this paragraph – the Government is producing a science curriculum that excludes physics, chemistry and biology!

The so-called “fast draft” said science would be taught through five contexts – the Earth system, biodiversity, food, energy and water, infectious diseases and “at the cutting edge”.

It was sent to just a few teachers for their feedback ahead of its release for consultation next month, but some were so worried by the content they leaked it to their peers.

Teachers who had seen the document told RNZ they had grave concerns about it. It was embarrassing, and would lead to “appalling” declines in student achievement, they said.

One said the focus on four specific topics was likely to leave pupils bored with science by the time they reached secondary school.

My six year old loves science. He already does chemistry experiments. Loves astronomy. The proposed curriculum will indeed drive kids away from science.

Association of Science Educators president Doug Walker said he was shocked when he saw a copy.

“Certainly in its current state I would be extremely concerned with that being our guiding document as educators in Aotearoa. The lack of physics, chemistry, Earth and space science, I was very surprised by that,” he said.

Again it defies belief they could have drafted a science curriculum that excludes physics, chemistry and space.

The Herald reports:

A plan to lower the speed limit in Whakatāne district towns to 30 kilometres per hour has been described as fanatical by Mayor Victor Luca.

“I have no problem with a 30kmh limit near schools, which seems sensible. I am not in favour of a 30kmh limit around urban Whakatane,” Dr Luca said.

I doubt anyone is. If the Mayor thinks it is lunacy, why is it on the table?

With legislation introduced in 2022, the transport ministry has laid down a framework for councils throughout New Zealand for setting speed limits in their districts.

The framework states speeds must be reduced to 30kmh for areas around schools and school travel routes, and 30 to 40kmh for local urban streets. Speed limits of 40 to 60kmh are allowed for urban connector streets linking residential areas.

So basically it is being forced on local communities by the Labour/Greens Government.

Deputy mayor Lesley Immink said it was another example of a Crown agency imposing changes on councils.

“It’s going to be a really hard ask. I don’t think anyone disagrees with keeping it at 30kmh around urban schools, but [the plan] raises lots of concerns, for example, Harbour Road, at 30kmh.

The only way to stop this will be to change the Government.

The Herald reports:

A cybersecurity shake-up, revealed in an open letter by an angry security industry insider, is being considered by Cabinet, Government Communications Security Bureau (GCSB) Minister Andrew Little has confirmed to the Herald.

His plan to move Cert NZ (the Computer Emergency Response Team) under the GCSB’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) has not been previously publicly confirmed.

“The current system is fragmented, creating a ‘merry-go-round experience for business victims’ of cybercrime,” Little said.

He wanted “a single front door for cyber security reporting, triage and response”, as recommended by a 2021 cybersecurity advisory committee, whose members included Z Energy chief digital officer Mandy Simpson, Kiwibank tech boss Hamish Rumbold and then Consumer NZ CEO Jon Duffy.

Cert NZ was created in 2016 under Sir John Key’s National-led Government to act as a “triage unit”, issuing public alerts about cybersecurity threats and aiding individuals and small businesses who had suffered a cyber attack toward the right help.

Throughout InternetNZ I was involved in a small way in advocating for the creation of a NZ CERT. We were one of the few developed countries without one.

Both CERT and GCSB are involved in cybersecurity, but that does not mean they should be merged together. The GCSB can focus on Government and critical infrastructure and CERT on businesses and consumers.

If you put CERT under GCSB, there will be some reluctance to report things to CERT, if they think it means reporting to an intelligence angry of Government.

In an open letter posted to LinkedIn, a cybersecurity advisor and former Cert NZ board member Kendra Ross said: “While the objective of strengthening New Zealand’s cybersecurity capabilities is commendable, we believe that this decision, combined with the lack of broad consultation and the rushed implementation, poses significant risks and could have far-reaching negative consequences.

“Placing an outward-facing non-intelligence organisation under the umbrella of an intelligence agency could create conflicts of interest and compromise the independence and transparency necessary for effective cybersecurity operations.”

This is correct.

Recently Minister of Education Jan (I have been a PRINCIPAL you know) Tinetti apologised to 119 people for being incompetent in the House.

When will she apologise for her deep incompetence and harm caused as New Zealand’s Minister of Education? Hipkin’s definitely owes a longer, wider, deeper apology but has clearly chosen to put his performance as Minister of Education on the “bonfire” and not look in the rear view mirror.

The two latest issues needing mea culpas:

1. The Term 1 2023 attendance stats – while bouncing around a bit – still languish 13% below 2019 figures. Note: The do not include strike days which count as non-school days.
   
   Term 1 Attendance 2019 – 2023
   
   Term 1 2019: 72.8%
   Term 1 2020: 50.5%
   Term 1 2021: 66.8%
   Term 1 2022: 46.1%
   Term 1 2023: 59.5%
   
2. The latest Curriculum debacle under her watch has a Science curriculum being written that is – according to very high credibility people – devoid of Science.
   
   “Science teachers are shocked that an advance version of the draft school science curriculum contains no mention of physics, chemistry or biology. The so-called “fast draft” said science would be taught through four contexts – the Earth system, biodiversity, food, energy and water, and infectious diseases. Teachers who had seen the document told RNZ they had grave concerns about it. It was embarrassing, and would lead to “appalling” declines in student achievement, they said. One said the focus on four specific topics was likely to leave pupils bored with science by the time they reached secondary school.”

I think I know what Tinetti is doing here. Because of the decline in our education system – accelerated to maximum velocity (“physics”) – over the last 6 years our State school students are struggling to compete at all internationally so – lets take our bat and ball and go home and play academic tiddlywinks instead.

Simply appalling and the apology/fix needs to come well before this “Science Curriculum” gets anywhere near students.

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​www.alwynpoole.substack.com

The Herald reports:

The seat has been held for the past two terms by Labour’s Greg O’Connor, and before that United Future’s Peter Dunne. But aside from the last election, where the seat was swept up in the Covid “red tide” (Labour’s 51 per trouncing National’s 22 per cent), the party vote has long been a deep shade of blue.

This is not true. People have a myth about Ohariu that because it is not as deep red as Wellington Central and Rongotai, that it is true blue.

National las won Ohariu in 1981, or 14 elections ago.

If you combine Labour and Greens party vote against National and ACT, here is how the party vote has gone:

• 2020: CR 28% vs CL 65% = CL+37%
• 2017: CR 46% vs CL 45% = CR+1%
• 2014: CR 51% cs CL 39% = CR +12%
• 2011: CR 50% vs CL 41% = CR +9%
• 2008: CR 50% vs CL 42% = CR +8%
• 2005: CR 45% vs CL 45% = tie
• 2002: CR 35% vs CL 43% = CL +8%
• 1999: CR 48% vs CL 41% = CR +7%

That is not a deep blue seat. In 2005 the CR and CL vote was tied, as it almost was in 2017. Nad the CR lost the party vote in 2002. It has traditionally been a seat that is slightly more favourable to the CR, but not reliably.

In 2017 the left party vote of 45% was 32nd highest for the left out of 71 seats.

In 2020 it had a lower PV for National than Te Atatu and Mt Roskill. It is now Labour’s 19th safest seat. The combined CL party vote in 2020 was higher in Ohariu than in Wigram and Palmerston North.

This doesn’t mean Nicola Willis can’t win it. She’s a great candidate. But if she does, it will be a massive massive upset.

The Greens policy to bring back Muldoon’s rent controls is a good example of why they should never be allowed important portfolios.

There are many many things economists disagree on, but the impact of rent controls of housing supply is not one of them. A survey of 17 leading NZ economists found only 6% (ie 1 out of 17) who thought rent controls would have a positive impact on the amount and quality of affordable rental housing.

The science is basically settled on this. Sure rent controls will benefit a few lucky people, but it will produce greater harm overall.

The June 2023 Roy Morgan is out.

Party Vote

• Labour 30.5% (-0.5% from May)
• National 30.0% (-1.5%)
• Greens 9.5% (-2.5%)
• ACT 15.0% (+1.5%)
• Maori 7.0% (+1.5%)
• NZ First 3.0% (-0.5%)
• TOP 3.0% (+1.0%)
• DemocracyNZ 1.0% (nc)

Seats

• Labour 40 (-25 from election)
• National 39 (+6)
• Greens 12 (+2)
• ACT 20 (+10)
• Maori 9 (+7)

Governments

• Labour/Green 52/120
• National/ACT 59/120
• Labour/Green/Maori 61

Direction

• Right 38.0% (+2.5%)
• Wrong 54.0% (-0.5%)

The Herald reports:

Taieri MP Ingrid Leary went to a Mongrel Mob election hui in Dunedin at the weekend but says she thought it was an Electoral Commission meeting and she “in no way” condones the actions of the Mongrel Mob.

With law and order a highly visible issue leading up to the election, the National Party is attacking her attendance, saying it shows the pay-off from Labour’s funding of a Mongrel Mob-associated rehabilitation programme.

“The fact the Mongrel Mob wants to keep National out of government is the best possible endorsement of our approach to law and order,” National’s police spokesman Mark Mitchell said in a statement. …

Leary confirmed that she had been to the meeting but didn’t realise it was a Mongrel Mob hui.

“I thought it was an Electoral Commission meeting encouraging enrolment.

Who amongst us hasn’t mistaken a Mongrel Mob hui for an Electoral Commission meeting.

It was beyond doubt a genuine mistake, and in no way was a Labour MP attending a Mongrel Mob hui to encourage them to vote Labour. I mean there is no way she could have realised it was a Mob hui, because those in attendance would look identical to those attending an Electoral Commission meeting. It’s not as if you wear a patch or anything … oh wait …

Stuff reports:

Wellington Mayor Tory Whanau says she was ”a bit tipsy” when she walked out on a restaurant bill but is doubling down on her denial she asked a waiter if he knew who she was – despite another witness coming forward.

The Post on Monday revealed the incident on Friday night at Wellington restaurant The Old Quarter. Whanau on Sunday confirmed she had accidentally walked out without paying on Friday but, in an emailed statement, did not address questions about her intoxication and denied a waiter’s claims that she asked him, “do you know who I am”.

Talking to Nick Mills on Newtalk ZB on Monday morning she said she was a “bit tipsy” though not drunk enough that she should have been refused service. “[I was] a little bit merry after a few wines and a hearty meal.”

Management and staff at the restaurant told The Post they were going to refuse to serve her more alcohol but then she left without paying.

A similar scenario to this saw Aaron Gilmore forced to resign as an MP. I’m not suggesting that is warranted here, but it is a very bad look – drunk enough to be refused service, forgetting to pay and doing the “Do you know who I am” card.

Mark Mitchell released:

Mongrel Mob senior leader Harry Tam has endorsed Labour and the Greens for this year’s election, telling his Facebook followers a local Labour Dunedin MP attended one of the gang’s ‘election hui’, National’s Police spokesperson Mark Mitchell says.

“Labour’s investment of millions of dollars of taxpayers’ money into the Mongrel Mob appears to be paying off. The fact the Mongrel Mob wants to see Labour win this year’s election is another clear sign that Labour is soft on crime.

“Yesterday New Zealanders everywhere were disgusted to read about a vicious gang attack on an innocent man in Hāwera who was beaten and stabbed for unwittingly wearing the wrong colour to McDonald’s. …

“Harry Tam has told his Facebook followers the Mongrel Mob is voting strategically to keep National out by backing Labour and the Greens. Last year, a Headhunters member also called for people not to vote National.

This is hardly surprising!

Radio NZ reports:

One of the world’s most common artificial sweeteners is set to be declared a possible carcinogen next month by a leading global health body, according to two sources with knowledge of the process, pitting it against the food industry and regulators.

Aspartame, used in products from Coca-Cola diet sodas to Mars’ Extra chewing gum and some Snapple drinks, will be listed in July as “possibly carcinogenic to humans” for the first time by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) cancer research arm, the sources said.

This is good to know. The better science we have for consumers, the better off we have.

Since 1981, JECFA has said aspartame is safe to consume within accepted daily limits. For example, an adult weighing 60kg would have to drink between 12 and 36 cans of diet soda – depending on the amount of aspartame in the beverage – every day to be at risk. Its view has been widely shared by national regulators, including in the United States and Europe.

It is this advice that I’ll be most interested in – the safe daily limit. Anyone who drinks 36 cans of diet soda a day is going to have problems regardless of carcinogens!

AN NBC News poll has found US Vice-President Kamala Harris rating lower than all other recent VPs. In order of their *lowest* rating we have:

• Dick Cheney (2003): +23%
• Al Gore (1995): +15%
• Joe Biden (2010): +1%
• Mike Pence (2019): -4%
• Kamala Harris (2023): -17%

They don’t regularly poll on VPs so it isn’t a constant time series. But generally VPs are reasonably popular. They don’t have to make unpopular decisions and do a lot of ceremonial stuff.

So in that context a -17% rating is exceptionally bad.

The Herald reports:

Opposition justice spokesperson Paul Goldsmith has announced National will make filming and publishing a crime like a ram raid by offenders an aggravating factor in Sentencing Act.

Goldsmith said they would also introduce a new Young Serious Offenders category which would see those under the age of 18 facing tougher consequences.

This should provide an incentive not to boast to all your mates about your crime spree.

The Herald reports:

Education Minister Jan Tinetti has escaped being held in contempt of Parliament – but has been told to apologise for her “high degree of negligence” in misleading the House.

Parliament’s privileges committee has released its report into the matter today.

Tinetti was referred to the committee at the end of May for not correcting a false statement quickly enough.

Tinetti had told Parliament in February that she had no responsibility for the release of school attendance data. She was told later that day by staff did, in fact, have input into the timing of the release.

The staff had more than input. They effectively instructed the Ministry to delay the release.

The Privileges Committee concluded that Tinetti’s actions were more due to incompetence than dishonesty. Probably a fair call, but of course rather alarming as she is in charge of our education system.

The Herald reports:

Amendments to the Three Waters reform plan have blown out establishment costs by an estimated $1 billion.

The cost of creating 10 new Water Services Entities (WSEs) over a transition period that now stretches to July 1, 2026 is expected to reach $2-$3b. The estimate before recent revisions to the plan was $1-$2b.

And we are told these reforms will save money!

If the current estimate for establishment costs is $2 – $3 billion, I am confident the actual cost (if they proceed) will end up around $5 billion.

The Government announced:

An additional $128 million will be invested into the tertiary sector to increase tuition subsidies at degree-level and above by a further four percent in 2024 and 2025. This is in addition to the five percent increase provided at Budget 2023 – the most significant funding increase in 20 years.

The extra funding may cushion the impact slightly for some universities, but won’t make a huge impact. Despite the Govt spin, they are basically just keeping pace with inflation.

There are several factors which has led to likely mass redundancies at the universities. They are:

1. Covid-19 restrictions saw fees from international students drop 22%
2. Universities were not eligible for Covid-19 wage subsidies, unlike most employers
3. Tuition subsidies from the Govt only decreased in real terms in 2021 and 2022 as the nominal increase were well below inflation
4. A huge drop in domestic enrolments in 2023 – around 14% at VUW

Labour introduced fees free study for first years in 2018, and claimed this would see more students undertake tertiary study. Instead we saw EFTS at tertiary providers drop for five of the last six years!

It is inevitable that funding will drop if enrolments drop, but it does seem to me that a better funding method would be over say a three year time-frame. So if enrolments drop one year, you don’t have to suddenly lay off lots off staff within months.

I’m now doing a column for The Post and my first one is here. It’s on the health system. It’s paywalled, but to give you an idea of what it covers here is one paragraph:

At the time of Labour’s 2018 budget where they promised $1.9 billion extra funding for mental health, there were 746 adult inpatient mental health beds. Four years later this had dropped to 723. $1.9 billion more funding and fewer beds could almost be a script for a Yes Minister episode.

It does take special skill to spend so much more, and produce so much less.