Stuff reports:

Taxpayers have stumped up an extra $550 million to pay public-sector employees in the last year.

That was a 13 per cent rise in just one year.

In the last financial year a further 62 public service staff were paid salaries of more than $200,000, representing a 5 per cent increase.

Altogether, 1247 staff now earn above that amount.

No wonder Labour does so well in Wellington.

The common belief was that it would be impossible to get a withdrawal agreement between the UK and EU but Boris delivered one on 23 January 2020.

The common belief was that Brexit would never actually occur, but Boris delivered Brexit on 31 January of this year.

The common belief was that there would be no trade agreement between the UK and EU but Boris delivered one on Christmas Eve.

I wonder if one day people will stop underestimating him.

The part of the headline the Green MP is labelling ableist is “adopted country has many blind spots”.

So now the woke have decided that the term blind spot is ableist and hurts people feelings.

No doubt once the new hate speech laws have been passed, using the term “blind spot” will attract a $10,000 fine or up to six months in prison.

Eedookh Breekha everyone.

Stuff has made their annual predictions. I’ve copied them below, along with my comments on them.

1. Facing serious pressure on housing prices, Labour will extend the Bright Line Test, arguing this doesn’t qualify as a new tax – just a new way to crack down on people avoiding paying their fair share. DPF: agree they will break their promise and do this.
2. An electorate MP will leave Parliament, sparking a by-election. DPF: Disagree. Unlikely.
3. Congestion charging will be announced – or at least consulted on – for Auckland. National will struggle with whether or not to oppose it. DPF: Consulted on but not announced.
4. Local governments will continue to screw up, necessitating the appointment of at least one commissioner. The threat of an observer in Wellington will linger but not eventuate. DPF: Agree re screw up and a commissioner for Invercargill is possible.
5. The Government will implement a clean car emissions standard, but the EV fleet will remain below 30,000 by the end of the year, a tiny fraction of the overall fleet. DPF: AGree
6. Barring an outbreak, the trans-tasman bubble will open before the start of March. DPF: Disagree. 2nd quarter.
7. No one will resign from Cabinet in scandal or under pressure. DPF: Agree for 2021.
8. New Cabinet minister Peeni Henare will say something that he will live to regret. DPF: Pretty likely.
9. A new MP from the class of 2020 will greatly embarrass themselves on behavioural grounds. DPF: Fairly safe prediction.
10. A decision will be made on the future of light rail in Auckland, although don’t expect shovels in the ground. DPF: Is this a prediction? Saying there will be a decision but not what it is.
11. The drive towards a four year term will continue – but Labour will eventually concede that a referendum would be needed to make this change. DPF: Again not really a prediction.
12. New Zealand will sign up to a much tougher NDC under the Paris Agreement after the Climate Change Commission recommends it. National struggles to bring itself behind the Commission’s first emissions budgets, igniting a quiet civil war within the party. DPF: Agree re NDC.
13. The REINZ median house price in Wellington will hit $1m and prices will rise throughout the country. DPF: Agree and quite soon.
14. The Government’s books will be in better shape than feared with a deficit $10b-15b lower than what’s currently forecast. Unemployment will continue to rise, but it will peak below 7 per cent. DPF: Agree
15. The work towards a new intelligence agency, as recommended by the Royal Commission’s inquiry into March 15, is slow and unfinished by the end of the year. Incumbents within the system generally resist the change. DPF: Agree
16. The country will hear extremely little from Winston Peters or from the husk of a party that is NZ First. DPF: Hopefully
17. Oranga Tamariki will have a new chief executive before the year is out. DPF: Probable
18. The rollout of the Covid vaccine will be patchy and messy. By the end of 2021 there will still be people who want it who haven’t got it. DPF: Highly likely
19. The Government will come under serious pressure to open the borders widely as other countries get their vaccines fully rolled out. DPF: Of course

Stuff reports:

Queenstown hotel owners are distressed to learn that a proposed bed tax is being considered by the tourism minister while they struggle to survive.

In a letter to Queenstown hotel operator Nik Kiddle​, new Tourism Minister Stuart Nash confirmed he had spoken to Queenstown Lakes District mayor Jim Boult about the proposed visitor levy, which Nash understood was put on hold due to Covid-19.

The international tourism sector is almost dead but the Government still wants to impose an additional tax on them.

Stuff reports:

The man who murdered British backpacker Grace Millane can now be named as Jesse Shane Kempson.

It can now also be revealed that since being jailed for Grace’s murder, he has been convicted of raping a woman in a motel room – an incident that happened just months before he met Grace.

In October, Kempson was also found guilty of seriously assaulting and sexually violating a former girlfriend.

These were three different crimes carried out at different times with different victims.

But sadly for the victims of the rape and sexual assault he gets no extra jail time.

He got seven years and six months for the sexual assaults.

He got three and a half years for the rape.

And he already had the sentence of life for the murder with 17 years non parole.

The non parole period doesn’t get extended because of the rape and sexual assault convictions due to concurrent sentencing.

This seems wrong to me. I understand concurrent sentencing when it is say a string of burglaries – you don’t get six months per burglary. But for three such terrible crimes it seems wrong he gets no extra jail time.

The NY Post reports:

One of NYC’s poshest private schools is in an uproar over an anti-racist manifesto signed by dozens of faculty members with a sweeping list of demands.

They include:

• Hiring 12 full-time diversity officers, and multiple  psychologists to support students “coping with race-based traumatic stress.” 
• Assigning a staffer dedicated to black students who have “complaints or face disciplinary action,” and a full-time advocate to help black kids “navigate a predominantly white institution.”
• Paying the student debt of black staffers upon hiring them.
• Requiring courses that focus on “Black liberation” and “challenges to white supremacy.”
• Compensating any student of color who appears in Dalton promotional material.
• Abolishing high-level academic courses by 2023 if the performance of black students is not on par with non-blacks. 
• Requiring “anti-racism” statements from all staffers.
• Overhauling the entire curriculum, reading lists and student plays to reflect diversity and social justice themes.
• Divesting from companies that “criminalize or dehumanize” black people, including private prisons and tech firms that manufacture police equipment or weapons.
• Donating 50 percent of all fundraising dollars to NYC public schools if Dalton is not representative of the city in terms of gender, race, socioeconomic background, and immigration status by 2025.

Future policy for New Zealand schools?

My Daily News reports:

President Trump has ratcheted up his efforts to overturn the results of the election as right-wing conspiracy theorist Sidney Powell returned to the White House.

Powell, who was ousted just days ago from Trump’s legal team, is pitching extremist ideas like seizing voting machines or even declaring martial law.

After bending Trump’s ear Friday in the Oval Office along with disgraced former National Security Adviser Michael Flynn, Powell was back at the White House lobbying aides to join her quixotic push.

Powell and Flynn, who needed a presidential pardon to avoid prison for lying to the FBI, are vociferously urging Trump to issue an executive order or take other action to seize voting machines in swing states won by President-elect Joe Biden.

Flynn has openly called for Trump to proclaim martial law to order a rerun of the election in some states that Trump lost.

I never thought I would read stories about how a US President who lost an election would have people in the Oval Office advocating he declare martial law as a way of avoiding leaving office.

A year ago I did my annual predictions for the forthcoming year. So it is time to score them!

1. NZ First will not make 5% in the 2020 election – correct 1/1
2. ACT will gain at least a second MP – overachieved 1/1
3. By the end of 2020 (after three years) the Government will not have achieved even 5% of its ten year targets for houses or trees – correct as they were under 1% and under 3% respectively – 1/1
4. National will win more electorate seats in 2020 than 2017 – massively wrong 0/1
5. The End of Life Choice Bill referendum will pass – correct 1/1
6. The Cannabis legalisation referendum will fail – correct 1/1
7. No new political party will enter Parliament in 2020 – could have been worded clearer as I meant party not previously won seats. Morally 1/1 but give myself 0.5/1 for being unclear
8. The Government’s 2019/20 accounts will breach their Fiscal Responsibility Rules – massively so 1/1
9. The Government will scrap the Fiscal Responsibility Rules – sadly yes 1/1
10. Brexit will occur on 31 January 2020 – it did 1/1
11. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate for September 2020 will be the same or higher than September 2019 – up up from 4.2% to 5.3% so 1/1
12. James Shaw will have a leadership challenge but win – no challenge so 0/1
13. Pete Buttigieg will win the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary – he beat Sanders by 0.1% in Iowa but lost by 1.2% in New Hampshire so 0.5/1
14. Donald Trump will win re-election if the nominee is Warren or Sanders but lose to Biden or Buttigieg or Bloomberg – correct 1/1
15. Rebecca Long-Bailey will replace Jeremy Corbyn as UK Labour Leader – wrong thankfully for Labour 0/1
16. There won’t be a firm commitment to shift the Ports of Auckland to Northland, even though NZ First will pretend there is. Correct 1/1
17. Shane Jones will stand in Northland and lose. Correct 1/1
18. Jacinda Ardern will get married before the general election – wrong, maybe this summer. 0/1
19. The Government will back the proposed NZME/Stuff merger to the Commerce Commission – wrong 0/1
20. Parliament will not vote to restore voting rights to some prisoners before the 2020 election – also wrong 0/1

Overall score: 13/20. I got 14/20 in 2019 and 12/20 in 2018.

A guest post by Stephen Russell:

Wrong again! To the huge embarrassment of pollsters in the US, once again the polls underestimated support for Donald Trump.

Although, in this case, that did not result in a surprise outcome, the magnitude of the error was actually much greater than in 2016. Back then, national polls proved off by 1-1.5% (and state polls by more). In 2020, the magnitude of error was about 4%, with state polls just as bad.

Some of the errors were real whoppers: the Florida poll average was off by about 6%, Iowa and Wisconsin by 7%, and polls in Maine’s 2^nd district an extraordinary 11%. Only Colorado and Georgia saw the polling average get within about 1% of the result. Only Nebraska 2^nd district polls saw a significant error the other way.

Individual polls produced even larger errors: A late October ABC News Poll gave Wisconsin to Biden by a gobsmacking 17%. On November 3 he won the state by 0.63%.

But – to be fair – some polls did a lot better. Pollsters such as Trafalgar Group and Susquehanna insisted all along that the election would be close (at least in the key states – as it was). Iowa pollster J Ann Selzer (who famously picked Obama’s Iowa caucus win in 2008) produced a late October surprise with a poll that showed Trump ahead by 7% in Iowa (when other polls said it was neck-and-neck). He won by 8.2%.

So what went wrong? It should be noted that there could be multiple sources of error – some in opposite directions, which both compounded and cancelled in different places. A poll that was right might have been luck. Or the reverse.

One theory is that most of the pollsters were lying. They were part of a vast Left-wing conspiracy to depress Republican turnout by convincing people that Joe Biden had the election in a bag. Or possibly to provide cover for the Democrats’ vote-fraud operation. In which case comparing polls to results is pointless since both are false. 

For those who seek other explanations, there are some other possibilities. The usual suspects are a late shift in support, undecided voters breaking more for one candidate, and failure by pollsters to reach some key group.

One example of the latter that certainly occurred was related to Latino voters. They are notoriously hard to poll, and pollsters treated them as a single bloc. They knew that Trump was doing a bit better here than in 2016, but failed to pick that it was mainly with particular subgroups (Venezuelan and Cuban Latinos). Hence the big error in Florida where those groups were concentrated.    

Selzer has suggested that postal voting created an asymmetric turnout surge. Four weeks before polling day Democrats were fired up to vote (by mail) – and this showed up in more people telling pollsters they definitely would vote (sometimes because they already had). But some marginal Republicans were still saying “maybe” (and thus being undercounted) until the final week, when Republican “get out the vote” efforts peaked. This explains why two earlier Selzer polls had more “normal” results than the October surprise one. She also suggests mail voting meant surprisingly short queues on polling day – which prompted more people to vote.

However, while this makes sense, there is no empirical evidence available to support it, or quantify the magnitude of the effect.

The two theories that have gained most currency since the vote are the Covid-19 twist and the hidden (but not shy) Trumper theories. 

Put simply the Covid-19 theory says that Democrats, concerned for their own and for public health in the pandemic, stayed home and answered the phone when the pollster called. Republicans did not. There is empirical data to back this. There was an upsurge in response rates following lockdowns. There was an upsurge in response by registered Democrats, and in the share of respondents who evidenced high social integration. In any event, this source of error was (hopefully) a one-off.

A third theory is that pollsters simply failed to reach a significant group of voters: not so much shy Trumpers as low-engagement ones. These people did not lie or prevaricate to pollsters. They simply never answered the phone, or just declined to participate in the poll. 

Pollsters have long known about these people. But they never before worried about them because they did not vote, or if they did, voted much the same as other people. The polls’ failure to capture their intentions made no difference.

But these people just love Trump, because Trump is the quintessential anti-politician. He denounces and smashes at every part of the dysfunctional and elitist “system” they despise. (Of course, smashing your car because it does not go may not be a helpful response, but it is emotionally very satisfying.)

This accounts for the fact that polls for the 2018 mid-term elections were accurate. And Democrats did much better that year – winning House elections by a popular vote margin of 8.6% (as opposed to about 3% in 2020). The low-engagement voters simply did not turn out – and probably wont again without Trump on the ballot.

It may also explain the pattern in the state poll errors. In 2016, the biggest errors were in the rust-belt states where low-education voters switched from Obama to Trump. In 2020 the biggest errors were in the reddest of the swing states, and perhaps the most rural ones. Pollsters such as Monmouth’s Patrick Murray have said that polling in high-income high-education suburban areas was quite accurate, but missed a lot of Trump voters in rural areas.    

If this is correct, it presages difficulty for Republicans, again, in the 2022 mid-terms, but more accurate polling along with it. And maybe a return of the same errors in 2024, if Trump is again on the ballot. The big problem is that it is so very difficult for pollsters to do anything about this.   But if there is one useful lesson to come out of this, it is surely that we place too much faith in polls. They can still tell us useful things. After all, in most cases a 4% polling error doesn’t really matter much. In close US election races however, we need to be

Stuff reports:

Police will no longer pursue drivers who are speeding, acting suspiciously or fleeing for no apparent reason in a major shake up of controversial chase procedures.

An internal police email leaked to Stuff advises staff not to pursue fleeing drivers unless the threat posed “outweighs the risk of harm by the pursuit”.

The revised policy, which has not been publicly announced, was emailed on December 10, stating the need to “change a culture that is decades old”.

Between 2009 and 2018, 67 people died during police pursuits.

So around one every six weeks or so.

Around 3,000 people in total died on the rods over those nine years so around 2% were connected to police pursuits.

Frontline police say chasing suspected drunk drivers, car thieves and suspicious vehicles will now be a thing of the past because the suspected crime does not justify the risk.

It will be interesting to see the effect of this new policy as it becomes widely known. It might results in fewer lives lost in crashes connected to police pursuits but it might also lead to more people dying due to drink driving.

If you’re a drunk driver you now know you can not get caught be merely slamming the accelerator at a checkpoint.

The email said a pursuit would only be justified when the threat posed by those in the vehicle prior to signalling the driver to stop and the need to immediately apprehend the driver and/or passengers “outweighs the risk of harm by the pursuit”.

So unless the vehicle is known to carry say armed offenders, then they won’t be pursued.

I hope this new policy will lead to fewer people dying on the roads. But it may result in more dying, as drivers become more reckless knowing the Police are toothless to pursue them.

A guest post by Stephen Russell:

On January 5, Georgians will vote in a pair of run-off elections that will decide which party controls the US Senate for the next two years. 

Polls (for what they are worth) are mixed. Data for Progress has Warnock (D) ahead but Ossoff (D) not. Trafalgar has Ossoff ahead and Warnock not. RMG has both ahead. Remington and Fox have both behind. Polls in Georgia were among the least-wrong on November 3, but still underestimated Republican support. Biden led Trump by 1.2 points in the 538 average and he won by 0.25 points.

So here are some factors to consider in trying to guess the outcome. Some are encouraging for Republicans, some encouraging for Democrats.

History is against the Democrats: in the last 30 years there have been eight statewide run-off elections in Georgia, and Democrats have won just one. That was a 1998 election to a seat on the Public Service Commission – and the Democrat who won subsequently defected to the Republicans.

The history of run-offs shows a consistent pattern of much lower turnout. Democrats’ (often spectacular) failure in run-offs has stemmed from not being able to sustain turnout as well as Republicans. Turnout will almost certainly be the dominant factor again. 

In both 2020 races the aggregate Republican vote was higher – by 1.0% in the special Senate election and 1.8% in the regular Senate election. This gives Republicans a cushion to win even if their turnout declines more than Democrats’. 

The biggest third party vote in both elections was Libertarian. If those voters go back to the polls they are more likely to back Republicans.

Even though Georgia voted narrowly for Biden, it remains a Republican-leaning state. Biden’s margin in Georgia was 4.2% less than his popular vote margin nationwide.

A double runoff is unprecedented, not just in Georgia, but anywhere in the US.  This is likely to help sustain turnout.

This is a hugely consequential election: control of the Senate. Money and national attention are huge – likely boosting turnout.

The contrasting character of the Democrat candidates may be a slight help for them, as each candidate will reach different people – who will likely vote for both if they vote at all.

The contrasting character of Democrat supporters may be a problem: the Democrat coalition is more diverse than the Republicans’ and thus harder to marshal.

In the special Senate race, the bitter fight between Loeffler and Collins may limit Republican unity behind Loeffler.  Warnock also needs to unify Democrats – but may have an easier time doing so because he easily defeated his Democrat rivals, it was obvious that he would do so early on, and he did not need to attack those rivals.

Moderate Democrats – especially those who lost House and Senate races – argue that Republican scare tactics over alleged Democrat radicalism were highly effective and the main reason for their party’s disappointing performance. Republicans are continuing with this tactic. However, it is now limited by their own success: The best the Democrats can do is get 50 seats in the Senate – which means every single one of those 50 Senators (including several in very red states like Joe Manchin in West Virginia) will have a veto. Against any threat, Warner and Ossoff can each say “I won’t vote for that” and that kills it.

Both Ossoff and Warnock are relative liberals – not so radical as Republicans paint them, but not the kind of Joe Manchin-style conservative Democrats who might have more crossover appeal in a reddish state. Loeffler has run adverts describing herself as more conservative than Attila the Hun and joking about killing liberals. Unable to tack effectively to the centre, she is seeking to portray Warnock as an extreme progressive. Warnock has a good ad rejecting this.  

Georgia’s voters will know exactly what will happen if Republicans retain control of the Senate: nothing – two years, and likely four, of gridlock, paralysis, frustration and Government shutdowns. No problems will be solved and most will get worse. They know this because that is exactly what happened to Obama after 2010. 

The poorer-than-they-expected performance by Democrats was partly because Trump motivated a whole lot of low-engagement voters to vote. These people despise elites and love Trump because he is an anti-politician.  They also don’t respond to pollsters questions and are a big part of why the polls were wrong. These people have little love for regular Republican politicians, and without Trump himself on the ballot they are less likely to vote.

A key part of the Democrat vote was people who were normally Republican but wanted to eject Trump from the White House. Many of these split their ticket – but  many did not and may now “go home” to Republicans their primary goal has been accomplished. On the other hand, the fact that Trump is not going quietly may help sustain that support.   

Democrats may benefit from a Biden honeymoon effect, though polarisation would restrict its scale, and evidence for any such effect is limited so far.

The widespread belief in massive Democrat fraud may depress Republican turnout. Why vote when the outcome is pre-ordained? And some MAGA activists are even calling for a boycott because Loeffler and Perdue are not Trumpy enough (!).

Stuff reports:

Both the president and secretary general have resigned from NZ First.

The resignations of president Kristin Campbell-Smith​ and secretary general Liz Witehira​ were confirmed by party member Darroch Ball on Sunday.

Ball said he would be taking over as interim president, likely until the party’s annual general meeting next year.

I wonder if they still have the 500 members necessary to stay registered?

2021 is on the horizon and I’ll be celebrating its arrival with the sale of my business.  

Two weeks ago, I announced to my customers that I was selling the dance school I’ve owned for the past six years. The school has already shut down for the year, so for all intents and purposes, I have no more responsibilities. But settlement isn’t until the last day of December, so I’m counting down the days to when I officially become a former small businesswoman. 

During six years in business, I’ve learnt a lot. Would I do it again? I’m not so sure. But I now have an appreciation of small business ownership that I think you really have to have lived to understand. 

I bought the school when I was twenty two. My first passion was ballet, but I realised in my late teens that a career in it wasn’t an option for me with my injury-prone body. I taught classes part time while I was at university instead, earning a good wage. It was the perfect job for me while I studied my second passion, politics. 

It’s a long story as to how I came to buy a dance school, but it is fair to say it was not part of the life plan when it happened. 

The first year was awful.  

I was young, for starters. I came in knowing how to teach but actually running a business? I had no clue.  

I also ‘inherited’ some difficult staff who made it clear that they saw me as a naïve, little girl. Attempts to make my mark were not taken seriously. In fact, they were laughed at and outright rejected.  

I realised this almost immediately but it took almost a year of stress before the situation was resolved. Things were exacerbated by a couple of bad hires on my part. One experience was so bad that I almost walked away from the business completely.  

Then there were the overdue payments and bad debts. I was too nice, to be honest, which made it easy for customers to take advantage of me. Cashflow is a never-ending source of stress for small businesses. 

A number of other things occurred that I’d rather not get into. 

Towards the end of the first year, I knew that things were not sustainable. I completely rebranded – including changing the name of the school – which meant that I could start from scratch. It was a big gamble. 

But five years later, I could not be more proud of the business I am passing on. 

Here’s what I’ve learnt. 

1. Reward competence with autonomy 
Only with a strong team will you build a strong brand. And when you know you’ve hired the best person, get out of their way. Autonomy is a strong motivator; if you want the best performance from your team, they have to know you trust them. When they know that, you’ll watch them flourish. 

2.  Build a culture and protect it  
Culture is everything. I am a broken record when it comes to values, but if they aren’t a part of who you are – and instilled in your daily life – then your business will never be a place others want to be. Culture starts from the top, and works its way down through your team to your customers.  

It’s okay to demand those values from your customers too, especially if their behaviour impacts others (like it does at a dance school when you’ve got crazy dance mums). It was no great loss to me if I lost a student who was detrimental to the culture I had created, even if it meant a drop in sales.  It’s highly likely that many others would have just left instead.  

3. Realise you can’t please everyone 
You need to be the boss and learn to say no. For some – like me – it’s hard offending people or telling them something they might not like to hear. As a new business owner, your instinct might be to bend over backwards for customers. But at the end of the day, it’s your business and your reputation on the line. Don’t risk that for anyone. 

4. Have a system to guarantee good communication 
Communication with your customers is crucial. If you’re an anxious person like me who has a hard time with emails and phone calls, delegate this job to someone else. 

5. Stay on top of debtors 
Don’t be afraid to use debt collectors. If you’re owed money, and having a hard time retrieving it, an email from Baycorp usually does the trick. If you’re afraid of losing them as a customer, ask yourself if you really want people who devalue you and your services as customers anyway. 

6. Cash is king 
Have enough cash for a rainy day – especially when you’re first starting up. Always assume there’s another Covid-19 lockdown around the corner! 

7. Compartmentalise 
Understand that you will never just work 40 hours a week. Your business is your life. But if you can, separate your home life from your work space. Don’t answer emails at home if you don’t have to, and don’t give out your personal mobile number unless it’s an emergency. 

Wherever possible, create a separation; it will benefit your mental health. 

8. Surround yourself with supporters 
Build a support network, because you can’t do everything on your own. For me, this wasn’t just my wonderful staff, but a small number of incredibly loyal parents who created a sort of cocoon around me during challenging times. And if you’re lucky enough to have these people surrounding you, make sure you look after them too. It’s a two-way street. 

9. Remember to be grateful 
Appreciate your staff and loyal customers. They are your business.  

10. Know when it’s time to move on 
Some people may be satisfied owning the same business for the whole of their working lives. For others, an opportunity to hand it on just may be too good to refuse. Knowing when the time is right requires a both reflection and maturity. 

So, what now for me? I’m just going to enjoy summer without the stress of reopening, and having a nine-to-five job for the first time in my life. 

Monique Poirier has a Masters degree in Political Studies, and is a small business owner and former Parliamentary staffer. She is the Campaigns Manager for the Auckland Ratepayers’ Alliance.

Stuff reports:

It’s going to take months to kick elite hackers widely believed to be Russian out of the US government networks they have been quietly rifling through since as far back as March in Washington’s worst cyberespionage failure on record.

Experts say there simply are not enough skilled threat-hunting teams to duly identify all the government and private-sector systems that may have been hacked. FireEye, the cybersecurity company that discovered the intrusion into US agencies and was among the victims, has already tallied dozens of casualties. It’s racing to identify more.

I’ve been listening to podcasts on this. The size of the hack is unprecedented. Up to 18,000 companies infected.

What the SVR did was firstly hack SolarWinds who produce the Orion software. They then spent months putting a back door into Orion. Then SolarWinds did an update and all their clients had a back door which allowed the SVR to take over computers on their network.

They have had months to gather information and also insert further malware and backdoors. Many experts say those infected may have to throw out their network and rebuild them from scratch.

Infected organisations include many federal agencies. Experts have said this is the most audacious and successful hack in history, and arguably the most successful foreign intelligence gathering job of all time.